Aussie Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen. Source Twitter, Fair Use, Low Resolution Image to Identify the Subject

AFR: Australia’s Renewable Transition to Drive Up Prices 35% Next Year

Essay by Eric Worrall

Surprise – despite a political promise of cheaper power bills, turns out someone has to pay the trillions of dollars required to “transition” to renewables.

Electricity prices to soar as energy transition falters

Angela Macdonald-Smithand Jenny Wiggins
Updated Oct 10, 2022 – 6.40pm, first published at 2.19pm

“Next year, using the current market prices, tariffs are going up a minimum 35 per cent,” Alinta Energy chief executive Jeff Dimery told the summit in Sydney, with disagreement from Origin Energy and EnergyAustralia.

Mr Dimery warned Australia was “out of time” on putting in place policies to support investment in new firmed renewables capacity to replace the coal power plants exiting at an accelerating rate, worsening upward pressures on pricing.

What cost $1 billion to acquire is going to cost me $8 billion to replace. So let’s talk about that and still explain to me how energy prices come down, I don’t get it.

It makes it harder to achieve the drop in power prices promised by Labor by 2025 in the run-up to the election in May, although Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen did not back away from that assurance.

“It appears that some people think [the energy transition] will be easy and cheap, but I think most people in this room understand it’s hard and expensive and likely to drive energy bills [up] in the near term,” said Andrew Richards, CEO of the Energy Users Association of Australia.

“If you look at the quantum of investment required … [estimates] look at anywhere between $US100 and $US120 trillion of investment necessary to effect transition by 2050. That is orders of magnitude more than the supply chain is capable of doing today.”

Read more (paywalled): https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/electricity-prices-tipped-to-rise-at-least-35pc-in-2023-20221010-p5boif

Could it be nobody ran the numbers, before our politicians opened their mouths and committed to an impossibly expensive energy solution?

Note the $US100+ trillion is a most likely a global transition estimate, though this isn’t clear from the context.

The cost of Australia transitioning is around AUD $7 trillion by my estimate, much of that cost is battery backup. Though this estimate is just the cost of replacing current demand, it does not include the cost of providing additional electricity for a 100% electric vehicle fleet.

And of course, there is a real question whether the transition is even possible, given European solar manufacturers appear to be choosing to close their factories rather than face the prospect of using their own product to power operations.

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Ron Long
October 10, 2022 2:03 pm

Come on, 35% is a small price for saving the planet earth from a burning hell. Disclaimer: I was born sarcastic.

Sean
Reply to  Ron Long
October 10, 2022 2:39 pm

But they are not saving anything. The local emissions simply get exported to “developing” economies in Asia in the industrial products that Australia buys rather than make domestically. So, it’s 35% more just to say, “it’s not my fault”.

Reply to  Sean
October 11, 2022 12:02 am

Australia has been moving to a services economy since the 80s.
Recently I was reading they used to have a shipbuilding industry able to build 75,000 ton bull carriers, half subsidised by taxpayer of course. Car manufacturing is gone also, kept going by tariffs on imports. Mining and agriculture are the only non services left on any scale.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Duker
October 11, 2022 3:36 am

yup we lost all our whitegoods and other seriously useful industry years/decades ago, shoemakers and assorted others all gone or going, weaving textiles gone
no cars no ships except small ones private(govt doesnt count) qantas off shored the maintenance of our planes
we are STUFFED

Reply to  ozspeaksup
October 11, 2022 9:37 pm

Luckily they recently got onto a new and major export earner which has been killing it with very high prices for the returns on capital invested
CNG…only one problem with … dont tell the Greenies in their wealthy urban enclaves
Money doesnt grow on trees , but in the right circumstances it can come out of the ground

Dennis
Reply to  ozspeaksup
October 11, 2022 11:26 pm

And over 40% of the land now controlled by Land Councils managed by Indigenous Australians and 30% of public lands now registered as UN National Parks, vast natural resources of minerals and energy locked away, necessary State Government exploration and mining permits and a long list of red and green tape regulations in place as deterrents.

Dennis
Reply to  Duker
October 11, 2022 11:23 pm

The beginning of the end: 1975 Whitlam Labor Government of Australia signed the UN Lima Protocol agreeing to the gradual transfer of manufacturing industry businesses to developing nations.

After that various other UN economy busting agreements and treaties, Agenda 21 for example, emissions reduction Kyoto and Paris.

Scissor
Reply to  Ron Long
October 10, 2022 3:12 pm

I think I can translate into Kriol. You going to pay through the nose one.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Scissor
October 10, 2022 4:28 pm

I’m impressed that he kept a straight face though it all!

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Scissor
October 10, 2022 7:57 pm

Made himself to look like a complete fool, more so than usual.

Brian Andrews
Reply to  Scissor
October 11, 2022 12:16 am

Since the beginning of the pandemic I have been trying to escape from Western Australia and this clown. Trouble is, I can’t find anywhere that isn’t run by clowns. I thought of returning to New Zealand, but rejected that idea after about 1 us of thinking….

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Brian Andrews
October 11, 2022 1:15 am

NZ is just as bad if not worse with Ardern at the wheel and the threat of Peters taking over.

Surrr
Reply to  Patrick MJD
October 11, 2022 3:45 am

Ardumb, the cow fart taxer?

Brian Andrews
Reply to  Patrick MJD
October 11, 2022 4:03 am

Yes, I simply cannot understand how NZ could have totally self destructed so quickly. So very sad.

Kentlfc
Reply to  Brian Andrews
October 11, 2022 3:38 pm

You can thank Winston Peters for that! The Nationals were doing okay in NZ and won the most votes (and 56 of the 61 needed to govern) at the 2017 election. Peters’ NZ First party won 9 seats and chose to go with Labour (who had only won 46 seats) and the loonie Greens (who had won 8 seats, down 6 from the last election).
Peters now regrets his 2017 choice to back Ardern!

Brian Andrews
Reply to  Kentlfc
October 11, 2022 4:54 pm

Thanks for the nice summary Kentifc. My parents supported Winston, but not Ardern. I haven’t voted in a NZ election for decades. I will be taking more interest in the run up to the next election

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Kentlfc
October 11, 2022 11:56 pm

Peters is about as trust worthy as far as I can throw him. I recall seeing him getting a bit “uppity” outside a bar on Courtenay Place in the 90’s and thought then that anyone voting for that “wide boy” must be insane.

Sadly, NZ started it’s downward spiral when the UK stopped importing produce, “Rogernomics” took over and Helen Clark destroyed what was arguably the worlds best public healthcare system.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Brian Andrews
October 11, 2022 11:57 pm

It took several decades but there is no going back.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Scissor
October 11, 2022 3:39 am

pathetic isnt it

ResourceGuy
October 10, 2022 2:17 pm

It also depends on sabotage rate along the way….and other KGB moves.

WSJ
BERLIN—The Danish island of Bornholm suffered a power outage Monday, local electricity providers said, amid mounting calls for heightened security measures to protect Europe’s critical infrastructure.
The incident comes after an elaborate sabotage operation brought train traffic in northern Germany to a halt on Saturday and days after powerful undersea explosions near Bornholm hit the Nord Stream gas pipelines linking Russia to Europe.
Authorities have yet to determine who or what caused the incidents, but they have drawn attention to the vulnerability of Europe’s critical infrastructure, including energy, power and communication links amid a spiraling economic conflict with Russia. Western governments have sanctioned Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine and accused Russia of hitting back by undermining Europe’s energy security.
Authorities in Bornholm, a rocky island south of Sweden with a population of around 40,000 people, said they had fired up a local power plant to produce backup electricity for the island. The disruptions also caused outages in internet and television connections in parts of the island.
Within hours, most of the consumers on the island had their electricity restored, local electricity provider TREFOR said. The cause for the outage was “grave damage to the cable network,” it said. The Danish transmission operator, Energinet, said that a fault in the high-voltage grid resulted in the outage.
Officials in Germany over the weekend called for increased security after Transport Minister Volker Wissing said that the German railway outage was the result of “a deliberate act.”
Crucial cables were cut in two separate locations, disabling communication with trains and stranding thousands of passengers at the start of the weekend in the states of Lower Saxony, Bremen, Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein.

German authorities said the attacks were sophisticated because they happened hundreds of miles apart and targeted a key communications system between operators and train drivers, and a separate system normally used as a backup. They haven’t released information on possible perpetrators or motives and continue to investigate. One of the agencies conducting the probe is the State Protection arm of the police, which investigates politically motivated crimes.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 10, 2022 3:05 pm

There is a war on, thanks to Putin invading Ukraine. Crazy EU stuff happening is sometimes not so crazy. EU is supporting Ukraine. That makes EU an indirect war target in Putin’s mind.
Ditto US. But Biden is failing so miserably that Putin probably figures just leave well enough alone. Or, as Napoleon said, paraphrasing, “Never interrupt the enemy when in the process of making a mistake.”

toorightmate
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 10, 2022 3:46 pm

I have wondered if part of Putin’s timing/strategy was the piss poor quality of Western governments and “leaders”.
Never before has there been such a pathetic bunch of left-leaning, politically correct idiots.

Reply to  toorightmate
October 10, 2022 6:51 pm

Unsure why you are going so easy on them.
They all suffer from mental retardation
Aka, woke progressivism

Reply to  Pat from kerbob
October 11, 2022 12:06 am

The right wing ones are even worse. Hungary and Poland come to mind. The new Italian coalition will be mind boggling, but they are used to confusion.

Frank
Reply to  Duker
October 11, 2022 4:01 am

Left wing, right wing – it is all the same bird. Still most people, at least in my part of the woods fail to recognize this.

Reply to  Duker
October 12, 2022 1:29 am

Hungary and Poland are doing pretty well right now, whatever you think.

Barry Malcolm
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 10, 2022 7:53 pm

Biden, Romney, Pelosi and Kerry offspring are on the Boards of Directors for energy companies doing business in Ukraine. Is that true?

Ron Long
Reply to  Barry Malcolm
October 11, 2022 3:27 am

Careful, Barry: “No one fracks with the Bidens.”

ozspeaksup
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 11, 2022 3:40 am

the pipeline divers went back for another hackjob?

Ouluman
October 10, 2022 2:35 pm

Incredible how many examples are out there of false economics with respect to “green” energy. Millions being forced into energy poverty around the globe. I was going to say who the hell votes for these idiots – but the sad reality is that almost all Govts nowadays are so brainwashed that it is difficult to find a real party that has common sense.

Eventually people will protest on the street & it will become violent when they cannot afford to live in the same comforts that they are used to, and it looks like this will happen sooner rather than later.

Reply to  Ouluman
October 10, 2022 5:48 pm

During the 2020 election, I had some people ask me to support a particular candidate. I would then ask them to name me 3 things their candidate did to make our lives better. The only people who even gave me one thing were the Donald Trump supporters. Almost everyone couldn’t name one thing their favorite candidate did to improve their life. I then asked them why I should support someone that, by your own admission, has done nothing to help you. The answer I would sometimes get after that was “Yeah, but the other person/party is worse”. And that view was based only on the lying propaganda from the media.

However, I guarantee you that those people still voted for the guy whom they admitted did nothing to help them. The lesson I learned that no matter how bad a candidate screws them over, there will still be a large number of people who think he is doing a good job.

Who votes for these people? Politicians are a master at making people think they the other person/party is worse. Therefore, people will keep supporting their person/party no matter how bad they screw them over. People have been brainwashed into thinking they are choosing the lesser of two evils.

Barry Malcolm
Reply to  Wade
October 10, 2022 7:56 pm

Leave them alone to vote for their favourite colour of the party, like in Canada!

Reply to  Wade
October 11, 2022 12:11 am

The politicians know from their polling and focus groups that only 10% of voters understand the issues.
Trump’s problem wasn’t wether he made some people’s lives better …he didn’t do that either… But he wasnt able to government properly and a portion of voters who voted for Republican candidates down the list voted Biden for president.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Duker
October 11, 2022 4:48 am

No?! Black unemployment was lower under Trump than under any US President in HISTORY. The US was energy independent for the first time since probably the 1950s. Gasoline and heating oil prices were about $2.00 per gallon cheaper than they are now. Inflation AND unemployment were low. Government “agencies” were having their overreach reined in.

You want to come again with how he wasn’t making things BETTER?!

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Ouluman
October 11, 2022 3:42 am

good luck with that in germany
they already made people justifiably angry n protesting to be terrorists

October 10, 2022 2:36 pm

Do you think the Australian MSM will pick this up today and relentlessly hammer Bowen on the cost of the impossible dream?? I can just see the ABC hounding Bowen and demanding answers on behalf of businesses and taxpayers all over the country!

Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 11, 2022 2:28 am

I’m not sure on the AFR. Where would you place it’s editorial politically. It’s owned by Nine I thought.

On another matter, how can the ACT government claim that “Canberra’s electricity is from 100% renewable energy”?

Energy – Climate Choices (act.gov.au)

Reply to  Steve G
October 11, 2022 9:46 pm

Its a contradiction yes . All power production is essentially shared no matter the source . But they still believe the electrons travel down the grid like cars on a highway, the sort of thing they tell primary school kids, but would say for any high school science. That way they think power comes from nearby Snowy River hydro and a wind farm or two, even then they like to call it ‘power for homes’ and ignore the 50-60% of power drawn by shops offices factories and other institutions

Reply to  Steve G
October 10, 2022 3:35 pm

Alinta’s CEO Jeff Dimery is a shrewd observer and commentator on the electricity generation scene. I first noticed his comments in March before this years AEMO wholesale prices exploded to their full extent.
This link from 25March is worth a read
Alinta says court wind farm ruling will have ‘dramatic’ and chilling effect on renewable energy investment 25Mar22
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-25/chill-winds-for-renewable-sector/100940308
Many Aussies reading at WUWT will know how there is a dominant Renewables news source in Ozz that has spruiked the most tenuous twaddle for many years.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  wazz
October 11, 2022 7:12 am

Sorry, but he comes off as just another trough feeder whining about the fact that worse-than-useless wind farms and related t&d lines will face “opposition,” all while continuing to breathe life into the lies about wind having any possibility to replace coal.

They face opposition?! Awesome! May the “opposition” get to the point where they never build another wind farm!

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Steve G
October 11, 2022 3:44 am

doubt it
abc is his cheersquad

October 10, 2022 2:59 pm

Most politicians failed mathematics at school and went on to study political science as it did not involve any mathematical calculation. As a result, they can open their mouths on any subject without being constrained by reality.

Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
October 10, 2022 3:57 pm

The calculations were done by some staff members, and then ignored.

michael hart
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
October 10, 2022 4:13 pm

Amen.
Every now and again I used to see random interviews with UK politicians asking them simple mathematics questions a 15 year old school child should be able to answer, (IMO).

The worst thing was not that they couldn’t answer them, but that they weren’t ashamed at being so poor at mathematics. They wear it as a badge of honour.
I strongly doubt they would admit to being unable to read and write, though.

However, the one piece of mathematics they do seem to understand is their salary.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  michael hart
October 10, 2022 4:32 pm

However, the one piece of mathematics they do seem to understand is their salary.

And strangely enough, every single vote in parliament to increase it seems to be unanimous!

I recommend a performance-related salary, myself…

Reply to  michael hart
October 10, 2022 9:08 pm

The Two Cultures. C. P. Snow

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  michael hart
October 11, 2022 7:19 am

Reminds me of Mad Magazine’s “The Lighter Side of Rip-Offs” – in particular one where a customer calls the waiter on a mistake that overstated his check, and the waiter makes some excuse about being poor at arithmetic.

Then, the waiter (after correcting the check) comments back to the customer that he has tipped less than his usual 15%, to which the customer snaps “I thought you weren’t good at arithmetic.” The waiter’s response, with a big grin on is face is “But I’m a WHIZ at PERCENTAGES!”

October 10, 2022 3:02 pm

$100 trillion US is about what it would likely cost just for the batteries needed to make wind and solar reliably replace existing US demand presently served by fossil fueled juice. That is 5 times annual GDP so impossible. And this is without any additional electrification. The only question is when this green bubble will burst?

Reply to  David Wojick
October 10, 2022 3:06 pm

With the amount of hot air blown globally from the climate / green zealots you’d a think the bubble is at breaking point..Hang on you can always blow another one!! Like a “tipping point”?

toorightmate
Reply to  David Wojick
October 10, 2022 3:48 pm

Where is the cobalt and nickel to manufacture these batteries?
I guess those commodities will just have to be supplied by the fairies.

Alexy Scherbakoff
Reply to  toorightmate
October 10, 2022 4:52 pm

You buy it from a shop.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  toorightmate
October 11, 2022 9:24 am

IEA anticipates worldwide shortages of lithium and cobalt as early as 2025.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  David Wojick
October 10, 2022 4:34 pm

Don’t forget that these batteries not only don’t last very long (compared to reliable electricity generation plants), they can’t be easily recycled. That means it’s a constantly repeating expense, not just a one-off.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 11, 2022 7:23 am

Yup, in addition to what I noted above – and the same goes for the wind mills and solar panels themselves. They don’t last very long…

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  David Wojick
October 11, 2022 7:21 am

I doubt it – even that is based on some ASSUMPTION about how long the wind and Sun won’t provide enough electricity, which will prove inadequate here in the dimension we call REALITY.

markl
October 10, 2022 3:41 pm

People are just starting to wake up to the reality of “renewable energy”. My prediction is there will be fields of wind turbines and PV panels out of use blighting countrysides in our future.

michael hart
Reply to  markl
October 10, 2022 4:16 pm

There already are, about 80% of the time.

Reply to  michael hart
October 10, 2022 6:56 pm

Was driving by a solar facility in southern ALberta this afternoon, looking at the AESO page as a cloud passed over. Faculty went from 80% to 10-% of rated in a couple seconds (webpage only updates every 30 seconds)

Garbage power is garbage power

We now have about 1GW of solar here, it can go from 800mw to 200 mw in a few minutes.

toorightmate
October 10, 2022 3:43 pm

Watch as Australia quickly becomes the Western World’s worst basket case for renewable energy.
We will probably even outdo California.

mikee
Reply to  toorightmate
October 10, 2022 6:25 pm

Australia is in the process of transitioning to a third world country while masquerading as a first world nation. Bowen is one of the chief architects in this process.

Hasbeen
Reply to  mikee
October 10, 2022 9:09 pm

Another Labor minister, Button, introduced a much car manufacturing plan which resulted in the ultimate destruction of our car industry. I wonder how long Bowen’s stupidity will take to destroy the rest of our industry.

Dennis
Reply to  Hasbeen
October 11, 2022 11:32 pm

And when the 2014/15 Abbott Coalition Government approached the remaining three motor vehicle manufacturers, General Motors Holden, Ford and Toyota, before completing that financial year budget, and asked the CEO’s what was the intention, remain or close down.

All three admitted that plans were in place to close down manufacturing operations in Australia.

Labor then as usual blamed the Coalition for forcing them to leave.

Dennis
Reply to  mikee
October 11, 2022 11:29 pm

During the period 1983 to 1996 the Hawke then Keating Labor governments were in office in Australia, Keating at one stage warned that Australia was heading towards becoming a “banana republic”.

Chrissy
Reply to  mikee
October 12, 2022 3:55 am

A quarry masquerading as a country?

H B
October 10, 2022 3:50 pm

When this washes up the labor party will never be elected again

michael hart
Reply to  H B
October 10, 2022 4:19 pm

I don’t wish it on you cobber, but your sacrifice may help the rest of us. When it comes, think of Anzac Day.

Reply to  H B
October 10, 2022 9:11 pm

Of course they will be elected again. That’s the way it works.

Dennis
Reply to  AndyHce
October 11, 2022 11:34 pm

Most Australians have little or no interest in politics, they believe politics has nothing to do with them, and most others are somewhat interested but tend to be welded to one side regardless of what that side does to them, with some exceptions.

October 10, 2022 3:50 pm

Note the $US100+ trillion is a most likely a global transition estimate, though this isn’t clear from the context.

He is referring to the supply chain – fundamentally China’s ability to manufacture all the stuff required in the time.

October 10, 2022 4:11 pm

Not just 35% increase but 35% on top of the previous increases which are already crippling many industries and private homes

JCM
October 10, 2022 4:48 pm

An axiom coined in medical science is that if there’s no empirical evidence, it is acceptable to use consensus expert opinion. This has led to all sorts of interesting interventions over the years, from bloodletting to lobotomy. Such a method may be analogous to climate science today, and the associated interventions. For it appears the method in play is exactly consensus expert opinion, and less so to do with empirical evidence. A dangerous game, with plenty of examples of atrocities undertaken in the this vein documented in the historical record.

Giordano Milton
October 10, 2022 4:48 pm

What happened to Australian citizens? Did they go insane?

Mr.
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 10, 2022 7:26 pm

the real reason our manufacturing sector went into decline

Rabid unions.

Mr.
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 10, 2022 9:56 pm

Small business is the engine of western economies, Eric.

If they’re collateral damage in the damaging actions of rabid unions against large companies, then all sectors are losers.

Dennis
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 11, 2022 11:36 pm

They were cleverly softened up by Labor Spin Doctors and relentless negativity of deceptive allegations against the Coalition Government and Prime Minister, and Labor’s Media Management Department aided by the majority that are left leaning media with most friendly of all the ABC.

Anybody taking notice of a certain court case alleging rape of a political party staffer inside Parliament House in the early morning hours can see the earlier relentless negativity directed at the Coalition Government being exposed for the deceptive commentary that it was.

Reply to  Giordano Milton
October 10, 2022 5:02 pm

There is a government funded propaganda machine known as the ABC. It gets more than AUD1M per day to send out the right message.

This sort of story would not appear on their ABC. If it appeared at all, it would focus entirely on Bowen claiming that prices will come down once their policies are implemented.

The riots in Sri Lanka were just a popular uprising against an unpopular government. There was never mention of the failed experiment with organic farming.

Every weather event is some how tied to human caused Climate Change.

The propaganda is mostly overt cheering but there are insidious aspect where the meme creeps into many stories unrelated to climate or weather. Every adverse event gets linked to human induced climate change.

Reply to  RickWill
October 10, 2022 11:52 pm

Absolutely, ABC are a cunning left wing / socialist / green / climate alarmist propaganda machine. There is virtually no objectivity, empirical. or otherwise, measurable aspects of any climate and Co2 related discussion on ABC.

CAGW skepticism is defined by the ABC as an evil that must be censored.

Reply to  Giordano Milton
October 10, 2022 5:42 pm

They were subjected to the mental abuse of at least 30 months of ceaseless GreenLeft/Labor media attacks on the then Morrison Govt – of which many campaigns have been proven after the 21May Fed election to have been based on lies or to have been spurious in same way. There is really a strong case based on at least 10 examples – see my last comment here on 15Sep22
“Count the ways lies of the left helped Albo’s Labor win the election”
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=6947

Dennis
Reply to  wazz
October 11, 2022 11:40 pm

Even this from Sky News

Anthony Albanese has been forced to defend his comments claiming he was an economic advisor to the Hawke Government as questions swirl around the Labor leader’s policy credentials.
Mr Albanese tried to link himself with the widely popular economic reforms under Bob Hawke in the 1980s on Tuesday as he attempted to move away from his blunder over the cash and unemployment rates.
Arguing that he was suitably equipped to handle the budget and Australia’s soaring debt, Mr Albanese pointed to his economics degree from the University of Sydney before becoming an “economic policy advisor” to Mr Hawke.
While the current Labor leader did join the Hawke Government 1985, his official parliamentary biography showed he worked as a research officer for Tom Uren until 1989.

Reply to  Dennis
October 12, 2022 12:49 am

Thanks for recalling that. When Tom Uren was Minister for Local Gov. I remember the issue in the news now – Albo stretching a long bow. It is another case of Labor being protected to hilt by matey media.

Chris Hanley
October 10, 2022 5:00 pm

The cost of Australia transitioning is around AUD $7 trillion by my estimate, much of that cost is battery backup

Reiterating Zig Zag Wanderer’s point above the cost of batteries is a recurrent cost.
Insane.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 11, 2022 10:43 am

As is the cost of wind mills and solar panels. And as is the INCREASED cost of providing reliable (read fossil fuel and nuclear) backup when the haphazard “renewable” garbage is given “priority.”

pochas94
October 10, 2022 5:06 pm

It’s funny!! Inflate prices by 35 percent to get — NOTHING!!

pochas94
Reply to  pochas94
October 10, 2022 5:24 pm

But wait! The excess spending to generate 35% inflation must go into somebody’s pocket. Right?

Chris Hanley
October 10, 2022 5:14 pm

The cost of Australia transitioning is around AUD $7 trillion by my estimate, much of that cost is battery backup

As Chris Bowen has said “the rain doesn’t always fall either, but we manage to store the water – we can store the renewable energy if we have the investment”.
And batteries like computers will get smaller and smaller, cheaper and cheaper, until the entire country will be powered by a battery the size and cost of an iPhone, just ask Chris.

Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 12, 2022 1:37 am

Who needs physicists and engineers when we have politicians like Bowen?

mikee
Reply to  Graemethecat
October 12, 2022 3:25 am

If Bowen’s brains were dynamite there wouldn’t be enough to blow his ears off!

October 10, 2022 6:48 pm

We know the cost of electrification with current tech (no nonexistent magic batteries allowed) is north of $400 trillion

October 10, 2022 7:14 pm

Are Politicians Brainless? The US consumes 4 Quadrillion Megawatt hours of electricity each year and has been equal to or above that number since 2005.
Using basic math that means that you need One Quadrillion 4-Megawatt Wind turbines if all were running 24/7/365 to generate that electricity. Period. However CF of the average wind turbine is only 25% thus you need FOUR Quadrillion 4-Megawat Wind turbines. Each of these will cost over $1,5 to 2,5 Million dollars including construction costs, Do the MATH and don’t lose track of the digits.

The answer is greater than a Quadrillion dollars. And that does not include the charging of EV’s

Now factor in the power needed for charging EV’s Use the number of BTUs used in gasoline for total transportation. Then there is Rail, Ships, planes, etc. Also don’t forget the power needed for charging batteries to maintain power when there is no wind – use Solar for this necessity as it is more erratic and almost excessive when you have enough to meet peak and harder for the dispatcher to control. And then there is the Ten Percent Spinning reserve required by Federal Regulations,

Somebody needs to wake up.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Rich Lentz
October 10, 2022 8:24 pm

Don’t forget that 4x current requirements isn’t quite enough. You rightly mention EVs, so double it. Then there’s gas & oil fired heating and water systems to be electrified. That’s basically triple, now.

BUT, the original 4x, now 12x, STILL isn’t enough. You may get 25% capacity, but that won’t always be when you really need it, or even can store it. You need to allow for wind & sun droughts too, perhaps up to 10 days. You almost certainly have to double the final figure for any kind of energy security. That’s 24x current requirements.

Then you have to allow for storage. For energy security you need 10 x the existing DAILY requirements. If your 4,000 trillion MWh is correct, that’s over 10 trillion MWh per day, so the required storage is 100 trillion MWh.

So, thats over 5 trillion MW (5 billion GW) of generating capacity, and 100 trillion MWh (100 billion GWh) of storage. THEN you need to factor in the lifetime of this equipment. I’d suggest that 10 years is relatively average. So you need to replace 500 billion MW of generating capacity and 10 trillion MWh of storage EVERY SINGLE YEAR!

If this is even slightly correct, it’s utterly impossible. Why does nobody do the simple mathematics that is not even of high school level complexity?

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Rich Lentz
October 11, 2022 12:48 pm

And don’t forget you can’t even count on the 25% production, you might STILL be getting zilch – no matter how much they build, only 100% backup with fossil fuels or nukes assures the lights stay on.

Patrick MJD
October 10, 2022 7:56 pm

This is just the start and for 2023 only. As Australia destroys traditional power generating systems, all the while selling gas and coal overseas, people struggle. I was accused of being “unhelpful” when I suggested to an ex-partner to turn stuff off at the wall.

observa
October 10, 2022 8:17 pm

Meanwhile across the ditch we have mad cow disease to catch-
New Zealand farmers may pay for greenhouse gas emissions under world-first plans (msn.com)

Reply to  observa
October 10, 2022 10:23 pm

And our NZ propaganda service, ONE News, has told us that all political parties agree that something needs to be done about our agricultural emissions.
We’re also told to expect a 30% reduction in sheep/beef exports, but achieve only 13% reduction in emissions.
Remember, this is according to our government, so the reality will likely be much worse.
Tough times are on their way.

Old Cocky
Reply to  Chris Nisbet
October 11, 2022 12:59 am

bdgwx posted some interesting charts on the recent “pause” thread that showed methane concentrations already tracking Scenario C, but that does have a reduction in, from memory, 2050. Scenario D starts methane reduction about now.
CFC11 reduction was already way ahead of the game.

Unfortunately, the greenhouse contributions of methane and CFC11 weren’t available.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  observa
October 11, 2022 3:51 am

that mad cow should be isolated and treated appropriately
ie no sale just cremated for safety

LdB
October 10, 2022 9:07 pm

Nick Stokes like Griff will be along any minute to tell us how cheap renewables are … reality doesn’t live it lefty world 🙂

Reply to  LdB
October 15, 2022 6:55 am

5 days and nada on this prediction. Nick is as much the all purpose Boogie Man in WUWT as is George Soros in the rest of alt. media.

observa
October 10, 2022 9:57 pm

We’re in ludicrous mode shutting down coal fired power stations while-

Coal exports to countries that produce far more emissions than Australia remain a driving force of the nation’s economy.
In 2020, Australia was the world’s second biggest coal exporter, sending $9billion worth to Japan and South Korea, $2.5billion to China, $2billion to Taiwan and $2.7billion worth to the rest of the world. 

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/climate-change-ben-fordham-slams-politicians-blaming-ukraine-conflict-for-rising-electricity-prices/ar-AA12OOki


Rod Evans
October 11, 2022 2:45 am

Not wishing to downplay the upcoming rise in energy costs that will take place down under, but here in Blighty, our energy costs will have increased by exactly 300% on bills/standing orders for gas and electricity in less than one year. from April 2021 to April 2022.
Our political class have decided to limit the price we will be expected to pay to just £2500 in calendar year 2023 this means limiting the increase to just 200% compared to our 2021 calendar year spend.
Now aren’t we the lucky ones to have such supportive politicians? Or maybe those in Oz are very lucky, they only face a 35% uplift?.

Humility
October 11, 2022 3:14 am

Renewable trasition to inflation. Each time they set new policy, they will renew inflation even higher..

ozspeaksup
October 11, 2022 3:34 am

a tidy suit doesnt help fix the fact Bowens an utter fool