News Brief by Kip Hansen – 27 September 2022 (updated 10:30 am 28 Sept 2022)
Updates are below main news item. Anthony Watts has posted the live radar video feed here.
This is the latest Warnings and Forecast Cone Hurricane Ian from the National Hurricane Center:
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Original Post follows:
[ click here for latest NOAA image ]
Hurricane Ian is projected to run right up the mouth of Florida’s Tampa Bay, making landfall as a Major Hurricane. The threat presented by this hurricane depends on precisely where the eyewall hits which also determines which direction the strongest winds are blowing when it makes landfall.
If Hurricane Ian hits Tampa Bay, just north of the Lower Tampa Bay (see map below), the strongest winds, and thus the greatest amount of storm surge will be pushed up into the shallow Upper Bay, potentially causing widespread flooding for the portions of the surrounding cities, many of which are built on old flood plains just a few feet above Mean Higher High Water – the highest of Tampa Bay’s usual high tides.
NOAA’s projected tracks improve as the time window gets smaller. At 72 hours out, these projections are accurate to about 100 miles. On Sunday, Ian was projected to hit Florida where the panhandle joins the main north-south body of the state. Now it is targeted directly at Tampa Bay with just over 48 hours remaining to landfall.
As you can see, Tampa Bay is very shallow — 1 to 4 meters at the deepest. [See this nautical chart] There are barrier islands along the Gulf shore, off Clearwater and Largo. They will be entirely submerged by anything more of six feet of surge. Large parts of Pinellas Park, single family homes most of it, will be flooded, along with almost all the bay-facing neighborhoods.
Using the NOAA Sea Level Rise viewer, first at Mean Higher High Water, then with five feet of storm surge and finally with an unlikely, but possible, ten feet of surge. The very-light blue areas are inundation.
Only time will tell. While a 50 mile shift north or south will make the world of difference for the Tampa/St Petersburg area, a major hurricane hitting this area, which has been spared a major hurricane event for nearly a century, will be a true disaster and create a real crisis as homes are destroyed and perhaps millions lose electrical power for a week or more.
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Final Update: 6:00 pm Wednesday:
Hurricane Ian is well ashore, now east of Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. Despite over-the-top verbiage from weather news announcers, it seems that the effects have not been as bad as feared. The words “catastrophic damage” keep being reported, but despite all the weather news people on the ground, no images of that level of damage have yet been broadcast. Wind speeds being reported – 145 mph — are not the wind speeds seen at the surface and when surface winds are reported, they are almost invariably Highest Gust numbers. Very little reporting of sustained winds.
None of this should be understood to mean that Hurricane Ian is not a large, powerful and dangerous storm. But reporting has been less than informative — mostly meant to keep people in their homes in areas affected — great care is being taken to prevent residents from getting the impression that it is safe to go outdoors. Many reports are not clearly time stamped and some are hours out of date.
Mostly we have seen a lot of rainy windy streets, some a little flooded but nothing like the hyped 10-18 feet of storm surge.
At least 24 hours will pass before we get any reports that are more accurate.
The main effect seems to be a great deal of rain, some places getting a foot or more, being driven by tropical storm force winds.
UPDATE: 11:30 am Wednesday:
As of 11:30 am, Hurricane Ian is just offshore of Englewood and Cape Coral, Florida. It is a massive and dangerously strong hurricane. Many parts of southern Florida are already suffering power outages. Naples, Florida already has about 5 feet of storm surge, and it is expected to get worse, all the way up in Charlotte Harbor to Punta Gorda.
Heavy rain is falling over a wide area.
Punta Gorda is at the moment experiencing water flowing out of the bay, away from the shore. This situation will reverse with a vengeance as the eye gets closer reversing the wind direction — water will then flow into the bay, potentially up to ten feet or more of storm surge.
Hurricane Warnings have been issued up through central Florida all the way to Orlando.
The next few hours will tell as the eye moves ashore.
UPDATE: 8 pm Tuesday:
With just 18 hours to landfall, Hurricane Ian is already classified as a Major Hurricane and the track projected takes the eye right into Gasparilla Sound (small map above). This lets Tampa/St Pete off the hook for the worst of the storm, but now Punta Gorda, Sanabel Island, Cape Coral and Charlotte Harbor will bear the brunt of the landfalling eye.
Of course, the track is not set in stone by the projections. It can and often does shift in the last 24 hours — sometimes by quite a bit. In any case, the folks in western Florida south of Tampa are in for a rough ride.
It is not only the coastal cities that are in danger — Arcadia and Lake Placid and pints inland will still get a hurricane, and as the storm loose hurricane status, it will still be a dangerous storm as it tracks up through central Florida.
UPDATE: 5 pm Tuesday:
Now just 24 hours or so before landfall, Hurricane Ian is again tracking a little further south than 3 hours ago.
The eye is shown to be striking Florida just about right at the mouth of Gaspirilla Sound – Charlotte Harbor.
The latest discussion of Hurricane Ian on the NHC site says:
“I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents should heed the advice of local emergency management officials. The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn’t previously under a warning.”
UPDATE: 2 pm Tuesday:
Some but very little change from 11 am. The landfall has shifted a tiny bit further south, which is better for Tampa/St Pete but worse for Sarasota, Venice, Englewood, Port Charlotte Harbor and Punta Gorda.
This southward shift means the highest winds and strongest surge will be into the Gasparilla Sound/Charolette Harbor.
Landfall is less than 48 hours out, so the modelling of the landfall should not change very much. The last little shifts, north and south, will occur in the last 24 hours.
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UPDATE: 11 am Tuesday:
The 11 am path projection for Hurricane Ian now appears to be shown as making landfall just south of the Lower Tampa Bay, which puts the highest winds and largest amount of storm surge down between Sarasota and Port Charollette/Punta Gorda. [ map ]
That’s a good thing if it comes to pass. Good for Tampa Bay bad of Punta Gorda which is at the head end of a long bay and may sufferer the same fate as feared above for Tampa Bay.
Author’s Comment:
I lived in this area long ago, and my first child was born there. Somehow Tampa/St Pete was known as a hurricane safe area. It had not suffered a direct hit since 1921.
I hope the residents there will prepare well and follow evacuation advice early.
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I have very close relatives very near this area, although not in the immediate Tampa Bay and adjacent area. We are keeping in close contact, at least until the cell towers come down and the power goes out.
What may not be well known is that this area has been receiving considerable rain this summer, so the soils are already close to saturation. Away from TB, flooding will be a major problem despite no storm surge effect.
LK ==> Thanks for the info about soil saturation in the area. In the summer, the area gets short thundershowers nearly every afternoon, sweeping in from the sea. Often only 20 minutes over any single area. Resdients would just step indoors — in a shop or cafe — and wait the shower out, then go n their way.
Those on the barrier islands and those living on historic flood plains and mud flats have the most to fear from storm surge. Everyone is a risk from winds.
Earlier this summer after a period of heavy rains, the septic drain field at my relative’s house became flooded, so until it drained they had no use of indoor plumbing. Fortunately, it didn’t last too long. Where they live is an area that is borderline wet, so when the houses were put in, ponds were excavated to build up the area where the houses are built. The ponds before this storm are filled completely.
As you correctly point out, high wind damage also going to be a problem.
In the Tampa area, the water table is within a few feet of the surface. In much of the area flooring within 12” of ground level is considered below grade for waterproofing. Some streets have flooding when the typical afternoon storms Kip mentioned are above average.
I remember one summer afternoon storm. We live on a fairly standard neighborhood road. I don’t remember exactly how wide it was, but it was wide enough to still have two way traffic even with cars parked on both sides. Normal sized curbs on both sides. It also had storm drains every couple of hundred feet.
On one occasion the water got so high that the sidewalks on both sides of the street were underwater. A few minutes later the sky was clear and most of the water had drained away.
I just (Monday night) flew from Miami to Santiago, Chile) and the Gulf was in an angry state. We passed to the East of the developing Hurricane, dodging towering cumulonimbus clouds, forced to fight head-winds, and treated to a lightening light show. Good luck to Florida, and what good luck to have some Adult Supervision in Florida (Governor Desantis) instead of the clueless Democrats.
Ron ==> Yes, today’s younger generations need adult supervision, or their naive “hopes and dreams and rainbows and unicorns” get the best of them.
I once drove over the north causeway in Tampa Bay during a typical summer thunderstorm and the waves were already smashing against the rocks separating the roadway from the Bay. In any kind of surge, it will be underwater.
My older sister lives in St. Pete and the younger one just moved to Bradenton, so I hope they’ve hunkered down. I’ve warned them to be ready, but that’s all I can do.
BTW, it’s funny to see my graphic of left-side vs right-side of a hurricane in this article. It’s definitely passed through several hands since then.
They close that causeway when winds get to TS strength.
Mumbles ==> St Pete and Bradenton (depends on their exact neighborhood) won’t get too much from storm surge but they haven’t seen hurricane winds in a century. Tha means a lof of homes are not prepared and a lot of trees will be blown down taking out power lines. They should evacuate id authorities ask them to. Orlando vacation?
Kip, I have previously posted comments about riding out a typhoon in an Air Traffic Control Tower in DiAn, Vietnam, in 1969, when we couldn’t get down due to the open framework of the tower support. The tower had a placard saying “abandon tower at 90 knots indicated wind speed”. The wind speed went from 90 knots to over 100 knots rapidly, trapping us in the tower. It then peaked at 111 knots (about 127 miles per hour), terrifying the other person but not fazing me, of course, but this was not an official windspeed for a typhoon/hurricane as the sensor was about 75 feet off the ground. The punchline for this comment is “get the hell out of town when a hurricane is coming”.
Ron ==> Better you than me….sounds like the “Confidence of Youth”.
Mumbles ==> I once rescued a man who had swum out into the northern part of the Bay and was washed down against the pilings og the causeway by outgoing tide. No amount of talk could convince him to let go, be washed past the causeway, and then, in the lessened current, simply swim ashore.
I paddled out on a borrowed air mattress, well to the north side,was swept under the causeway, picked the guy up, and then thru the pinch-point, paddled back to shore.
I used to live in Lutz, my ex-wife and kids still live there.
I’m praying that the kids will be safe.
Not so much for the ex?
Mark ==> Looks like they’ll get a lot of wind and rain, but be spared the brunt of the hurricane’
I have a relative who manages a marina in Tampa Bay.
Here’s hoping the really strong, high-water part of the storm misses Tampa Bay.
Good luck to everyong in the hurricane’s path.
The original graphic…
It’s a useful graphic.
Competent mariners know about the “dangerous northeast quadrant” of hurricanes (in the Northern Hemisphere).
Mumbles ==> Yes, rotated to represent the reality of Ian.
I live in Palm Harbor, so I’m somewhere directly in that path. I hope I’ve taken enough precautions. We have impact windows and doors I’ve secured everything that could blow around outside and used the faucet in some empty containers and put fresh water in them. I just need to get my generator running again.
I don’t live in hurricane country, but do live in a place where power outages are not uncommon and, because of the distance the line crews have to come and because we are the end of the line, our outages are measured in many hours and days. Knowing this going in, when we built our retirement place we included in the construction budget an automatic, whole house generator.
When we have an outage, it lasts only about 10 seconds, and then as if it never happened. Everything works fine, especially for those critical items just as pumping water and keeping refrigerators and freezers running.
A whole house automatic generator isn’t free, but I would consider it a requirement if I lived in hurricane country. Even if you have to take some time to save the money, it’s well worth the investment.
At this time that nightmare scenario is not what the tracks are showing. Landfall further south near Venice is what the current model runs are showing.
Joe Bastardi says:
Track means Tampa surge not the biggest issue but prolonged siege of hurricane conditions will be. Many non thunderstorm gust reords Tampa to Orlando may be broken
Ian is forecasted to slow to about 5 mph at the time of landfall as a CAT III and slowly move up right over Orlando where it will be a CAT I and go back out in the Atlantic passing over in the vicinity of Daytona Beach as a TS.
The slow movement of the storm opens the possibility of two tide cycles during surge conditions meaning possibly 48 hours of hurricane or TS conditions for some. And it is coming in at night! Scary!
I was wondering why the storm track seemed to jink north at Tampa. I’d have thought it had enough momentum to break into the Atlantic, but I’m an ignorant layman on steering winds and such.
Land provides more drag than does open water. This often affects the path as the storms are coming ashore.
I can see that, but since geographically Florida is basically a pancake, I’m not seeing why it’s path would be deflected northwards. I could see that happening if it had a central ridge running down it.
Yes, I am in Venice about a mile form the beach. Fortunately the elevation in my area is in the 13 ft range. Storm surge is a concern although if the center continues to move south towards Cap Coral I will be on the left side of the eye wall. As I wrote a the other day, the UKMET model has had the current track forecast for several days. It is the one I trust the most. As of 2 PM local, it is showing a continued move slightly south of me. Better for me, bad for them.
My house has six nail roof straps on all beams. I have Miami-Dade rated shutters, all up and in place a couple of hours ago. My wife and I have a safe space if the roof goes, and a plan if the water rises above 14 ft. We are well stocked with food and water. We assume we will lose power for 5-7 days. Everything is as secure as we can make it. Now comes the test, can my house stay structurally sound in the face of 110+ mph winds with possible higher gusts.
I’ll let you know.
I have a sister in Cape Coral, 6′ elevation.
I hope she is long gone to higher ground.
Last time (Irma) she went to my inlaws near Dunnellon but I think she would be better off heading east/southeast this time.
I guess I would have gotten out of Dodge a few days ago. But, then again since Vietnam combat I’m a coward when it comes to any high-risk shit.
rah ==> I am updating periodically at he end….the track, with 36 hours to go, is shifting sllghtly south.
Latest (and will not be updated) 180 nm RADAR loop from Key West dated ending about 11:20 AM EDT Tuesday
Hint: Click on image to start animation.
Better brace yourselves for the right on cue caterwauling from the usual suspects that this was all due to “human caused climate change”. It’s the same overplayed song and dance every single time…. *sigh*
Good luck to those in the path of this hurricane.
[T]he right on cue caterwauling from the usual suspects that this was all due to “human caused climate change”
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A Google News Search on “Hurricane Ian” and then a [Ctrl F Climate] search finds one hit on the first page of 20 items and the winner is . . . . . . . . NPR
Hurricane Ian’s forecast shows the impact of a changed climate
And NPR is what all my liberal relatives and in-laws listen to all day long.
Yes *Sigh* is appropriate.
… combined with an attack on DeSantis, regardless of the outcome.
FEMA’s web site says they will take three days to arrive after the disaster ends.
After Katrina, when FEMA took 2 1/2 days to arrive, it was proof that Bush was incompetent.
After Ian, if services are not restored by the time the sun comes back out, it will be proof the DeSantis is incompetent.
FEMA is a Federal Agency, under the diretion of Biden. Yes, the blame will go to DeSantis, but those folks prove that you can’t fix stupid.
FEMA hasn’t pre-positioned men and material? Has the National Guard been mobilized?
Dave ==> Yes, FEMA and the State have pre-positioned (or pre-provisioned) relief tractor trailers full of supplies for worst hit areas. My Church has done so as well: water, food, generators, chainsaws etc.
My Army unit evaluated emergency generator sizes and locator FEMA. It has been standard practice for them to warn areas that it will take three days for federal assistance because they can’t preposition supplies in the danger area. When Katrina hit we got to Mississippi the next evening and FEMA already had trucks delivering food, water, and ice to the coast. Part of the problem was that the FEMA person in charge of the relief for the state was so concerned with doing his job and helping people while still getting the base camp organized that he didn’t really stop to talk to the press that day. They seemed to take it as an insult.
My sister-in-law has an apartment in evacuation zone A and left for Lakewood yesterday morning, just ahead of the official evacuation order. I-4 was already full of people evacuating and the shelters are in full swing. I think zones B and C are also now under mandatory evacuation orders – about 300,000 people are covered by these orders. Preparations have been under way since before the weekend (I think my sister-in-law booked a hotel room last Thursday). She has her storm kit ready (water, batteries etc.) as Lakewood will get hit with high winds and rain anyway and might lose utilities – but no storm surge inland!
Yes, this is a rare occurrence (did Kip say 1921 was the last hurricane to hit Tampa Bay?), but in Florida you know you will get hit one day so the procedures are in place to respond. It will be a very very expensive event (in dollar terms), but the systems in place for dealing with is (not least the long-range forecasting) will mean that loss of life will be small – hopefully.
Good thing Florida shipped 50 or so Illegals to Martha’s Vineyard a short time back… they might have been in danger this week in Florida…
Besides the wind-driven storm surge another pertinent factor is the speed at which low pressure moves over coastal water. If the speed is close to the speed of long waves along shore there can be a large and often unexpected pile-up of water beneath the storm adding to storm surge.
As the speed of long waves in Tampa Bay is quite slow, one would hope for a rapid advance of the storm along shore.
Best wishes to all in the path.
My apartment is on Sand Key off Clearwater Beach. I’m up north now and hoping the preparations we made after Maria are enough. Good luck to all the full time Floridians.
hornblower ==> Oh, Sand Key might survive now that Ian has shifted south a little. Winds will now come up the coast then from shoreward. No telling what storm surge will be there. Good planning on being up north.
I have a high school classmate (1962) who lives in the area I hope she has chosen to seek safe haven.
One thing we can predict with absolute certainty — whatever damage happens in the Tampa area will be cited as
evidenceproof of climate change in the media.Here is a typical article following hurricane Fiona that did a lot of damage in Atlantic Canada:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-how-climate-change-is-fuelling-hurricanes/
Let’s see how all the EVs and chargers do in this flood event. That includes the Teslas parked there by rich NY Wall Street climate (tax) refugees.
“Let’s see how all the EVs and chargers do in this flood event.”
I was thinking the same thing.
Most of the EV’s are on the other side of Florida, in Fort Lauderdale.
True. We even have a Tesla store on Federal Hwy just south of Oakland Park Blvd.
Offshore data buoys, measuring wind speed and direction at 2 meters above surface, are a good source of U.S. hurricane progress information:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml [Map of buoy locations]
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4 [Data tables]
[Data tables]
The link above generates data centered on Cuba. You can change the report parameters and resubmit to pick a different area or larger/smaller span of time or space.
For example, all observations near Tampa out to 250 miles, for the last 12 hours etc:
Latitude: 26N
Longitude: 92W
Unit of Measure: Imperial
Metric: 250 miles
Observation Type: All
Time: past 12 hours
Fill in the form here:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php
I wish all Tampa Bay residents the best in he face of this potentially devastating hurricane.
With expected power outages of 5 to 10 days, this hurricane exemplifies the uselessness of EVs. Anyone with an EV as their sole method of transportation will be stranded in their homes.
In addition, in the utopia of only electric transportation, there will be no way to resupply grocery stores, pharmacies, restaurants, hospitals, emergency shelters etc because there will no method to recharge all of those electric trucks.
Aw, Bill, that’s just one of the minor drawbacks to the all-important virtue signaling.
I expect they have learned by now not to use their EVs to escape, unless they went a few days ago.
I hope all of the Weather Channel reporters have picked out their flooded ditch to stand in and practiced their leaning techniques.
I’m thinking they won’t need to do that this time. Might even lose a few of the dimmer ones that go out.
The Euro model has Ian making landfall between Sarasota and Venice. It then goes on to LOOP around Orlando, and then hits Jacksonville. If the Euro is correct (and it so far has been more accurate than the GFS), the LOOP will occur as a jet stream trough passes by to the north. I’ve seen this several times during my tropical storm forecasting years. The faster the trough passes, the smaller will be the loop.
Salute!
As a long time hurricane vet, the Tampa threat is diminishing hour by hour, and Ian looks to have more impact in terms of surge and wind down further south. In fact, if the eye just goes in 50 or 60 miles south of Clearwater, Tampa Bay could actually get lower as the wind blows the water out to the Gulf. We had that over in Mobile Bay a few years back when a storm hit between there and my place near Dastin/Ft Walton/Panama City.
That are does not get as many storms as we get in the Panhandle, so many old trees exist that should not. And building codes from 50 years ago were nothing like all of Florida had after Andrew.
I wish all those folks the best.
Gums sends…
Agree that Tampa will see the opposite of storm surge — if the Euro model holds true. It’s amazing to see that DeSantis mentioned the track change before the Weather Channel mentioned it.
John ==> Can you supply a link to the European model’s track?
Gladly. There are 2 good sources …
John ==> Ah, the ECMWF track shows landfall of the eye just north of Fort Myers, right up the snout of Gaspirilla Bay….not good news for Boca Raton.
Agree. I’ve been recording prior forecasts for comparison purposes — and the Euro excels. See attached forecast comparison image from 2 days ago. I think CO2 is clogging up the GFS model.
You can stop hurricanes by voting Democrat.
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Vote Democrat and stop HURRICANES, says Sen. Amy Klobuchar, before touting Biden’s record on climate change
Speaking on MSNBC Tuesday morning, the Minnesota Democrat touted the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act
‘We just did something about climate change for the first time in decades,’ Klobuchar said
‘That’s why we have to win this as that hurricane bears down on Florida. We have to win in the midterms,’ she continued
Warmer ocean waters help fuel hurricanes and have thus expanded the zone where hurricanes can form
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11255199/Voting-Democrats-stop-HURRICANES-Senator-Amy-Klobuchar-suggests.html
The population growth in Tampa Bay area has grown from roughly 50k to almost 3million since last major in 1921. This is the real issue. If they really thought that hurricanes were a big risk (and especially due to climate change propaganda since 1980) then why invest in all those condos and coast frontage? The obvious answer is that people think the risk is low and want to there because it is nice, and I don’t blame them. But do not blame climate change if you get hit by Ian,
Latest (static loop; will not be updated as time goes on) 180 nm RADAR loop from Key West dated/ending about 1:44 PM EDT Tuesday afternoon:
Tracking Hurricane Ian with constant updates:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89131/#89239
Thx Mike: My friend lives in Punta Gorda, and has evacuated to higher grouund and inland.
YW Mario!
Smart friend!
Winds could be gusting close to 90 mph there late afternoon on Wednesday.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=27.0513&lon=-82.1049&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical
The storm surge could be 10+ feet in the surge prone locations along the coast. Not sure how high and far into the Charlotte harbor that would penetrate. Surely not that high but I’m not familiar enough with the topography to even guess.
10+ inches of rain too!
It’s all alarmism. I recall the reassurance that this would be a season with a low level of hurricanes. Encourage residents to enjoy their days on the beach and not to get taken in by these exaggerations.
Good luck Tom in Florida!
Seconded, DonK31.
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Over the years, I’ve gathered that Tom is very near where Ian will come ashore. I’m not sure how far inland he is, He’s mentioned where he is in years past, but I’ve forgotten the details.
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I hope all is well and Tom will be back posting soon. I’d like to hear the storm details first-hand from Tom.
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I’m writing this well after landfall. I’m seeing too many trees still standing and too many roofs with nary a shingle out of place, even fairly close to the coast. The winds seem not to actually be as damaging as is being reported.
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But the storm surge and flooding near the coast… hooo-wee! Nasty. That has been causing major damage and I fear that some people may have been caught by the surge and flooding.
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The surge from Naples up to Sarasota is serious business. That’s where I’m seeing the videos of major destruction and not so much from wind.