Following the publication of story in The Guardian by Damian Carrington last week, titled, “World on brink of five ‘disastrous’ climate tipping points, study finds,” numerous corporate media outlets picked up the theme and ran their own stories. Based on a single study, titled “Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points,” The Guardian and many other news outlets wrote stories treating the study’s speculative claims as proven, although they couldn’t agree on the number of tipping points: The Guardian said five, the BBC said six, and Grist says seven. CBS News, erring on the conservative side, says four.
Claims that the earth faces a climate tipping point beyond which disaster looms are not new, and the present claims are no more likely to be true or supported by evidence than previous such claims were. There is no data or measureable trend which provides scientifically sound evidence that the earth is hurtling towards an apocalyptic climate tipping point, or even that such tipping points exist.
Describing the study, Grist writes:
Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already have passed point of irreversible change
The climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple “disastrous” tipping points, according to a major study.
It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.
These include the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, eventually producing a huge sea level rise, the collapse of a key current in the north Atlantic, disrupting rain upon which billions of people depend for food, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.
At 1.5C of heating, the minimum rise now expected, four of the five tipping points move from being possible to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1.5C, an additional five tipping points become possible, including changes to vast northern forests and the loss of almost all mountain glaciers.
In case you are unfamiliar with what a climate tipping point is, the theory behind climate tipping points is described at Climate At A Glance: Tipping Point – 1.5 Degrees Celsius Warming
In point of fact, in the study cited by the media, the researchers used computer models to calculate 16 tipping points, with the final six requiring global temperature increase of at least 2°C to occur. According to the scientists’ computer model estimates, the tipping points would take effect on timescales varying from a few years to centuries.
Note the word “could” in the title of the original article, and the timeline uncertainty. In other words, the scientists made a guess. And, importantly, the guess is based on computer models that are known to be flawed, rather than real-world, measured, evidence.
We’ve been warned of climate tipping points before, so much so that they’ve racked up an impressive record of non-performance.
For example. Google search shows well over a hundred, here is just a few of them:
“Global Warming Tipping Point Close?”– ClimateArk.com, Jan. 27, 2004
“Warming Hits ‘Tipping Point’ “– The Guardian, Aug. 11, 2005
“Earth at the Tipping Point: Global Warming Heats Up”– Time, March 26, 2006
“Global Warming ‘Tipping Points’ Reached, Scientist Says”— National Geographic.com, Dec. 14, 2007
“Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near on Global Warming”– Huffington Post, June 23, 2008
“Global Warming: Those Tipping Points Are Closer Than You Think”—Wall Street Journal, April 29, 2009
“Must-Read Hansen and Sato Paper: We Are at a Climate Tipping Point That, Once Crossed, Enables Multi-Meter Sea Level Rise This Century”– ThinkProgress.org, Jan. 20, 2011
“Earth: Have We Reached an Environmental Tipping Point?”—BBC, June 15, 2012
“In spite of the continued released [sic] of 90 million tons of global warming pollution every day into the atmosphere, as if it’s an open sewer, we are now seeing the approach of a global political tipping point.”–Al Gore, interview with Washington Post, Aug. 21, 2013
It seems there is always a climate tipping point in our future, and they never seem to happen. Every year we are treated to a fresh set of dire predictions, with the goal posts for when they will occur, always somewhere in the future, but never certain.
In June 2011, The University of East Anglia (UEA) saw tipping points behind every rock and tree, suggesting an “early warning system” be created. You can see the list of them in the figure below. Most of them are the same ones making the rounds in the media today and cited by the new study.
But, in 2022, 11 years later, none of those catastrophes has occurred, despite no “early warning system” ever being created. Perhaps the reason is that other peer-reviewed science shows tipping points have not happened in Earth’s distant past in response to atmospheric carbon dioxide changes.
A signifcant paleoclimate study from the University of Washington says tipping points aren’t likely to ever happen from increased carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.
The press release for the study, titled “Atmospheric carbon dioxide buildup unlikely to spark abrupt climate change” says this:
There have been instances in Earth history when average temperatures have changed rapidly, as much as 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) over a few decades, and some have speculated the same could happen again as the atmosphere becomes overloaded with carbon dioxide.
New research lends support to evidence from numerous recent studies that suggest abrupt climate change appears to be the result of alterations in ocean circulation uniquely associated with ice ages.
But even more importantly, the new study pushed by the the media in the past week based the claims of future disaster on a temperature rise of 1.5°C – the problem is, they don’t seem to realize that this has already occurred.
Below in Figure 2 is the Berkeley Earth average surface temperature record for Europe since about 1780. Europe is a good location to analyze, because some of the longest continuous temperature records are from Europe. It shows that not just 1.5°C, but 2.0°C of warming has already occurred.
Yet even with 2 degrees celsius of atmospheric warming since about 1820, the claimed catastrophic climate tipping points have not occurred.
Despite evidence to the contrary provided by real-world-data, climate alarmism over future tipping points seems to be a constant feature of the media, but they never happen – “its déjà vu all over again.”
Asserted disastrous “tipping points” may make for good headlines and story ledes, but there is no evidence any exist. Also, with the tremendous adaptability humans have shown to changing climate conditions across the course of time and widely varying environments, and the consistent progress society has displayed accompanied by revolutionary technological innovations, there is no reason for believing that humans face any catastrophic tipping points now.
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
What I always find strange about such lists is that when I look at actual data, I just can not see any reason for concern.
The things that concern me about the climate/weather are never listed or discussed.
The earth is overdue for a smack from a CME. The data is clear. They happen regularly (every 150 years.) Is the world ready for another Carrington Event? What about a much strong solar event?
The weakening of the Earth’s magnetic field gets little attention. I just don’t understand why. Watching the drift of the poles towards each other is fascinating. While I’m not exactly sure how fast it’s weakening, it started in the 1800s, if not earlier. Is it now weakening at 5% per decade? If it continues, the effect on weather/climate could be significant.
Any guesses (other than I am just stupid) as to why these obvious risks get little attention?
We are overdue a switch of the poles as the last one occurred 780,000 years ago. What will we do when our compasses all point the wrong way !! H-E-L-P
The only climate tipping I’ve seen is when the greenwash army abandons falsified claims up dark paths for idiots to trip over and re-discover.
But how much of the 2.0°C in Europe was UHI? I doubt that they have been any better at quality control of there weather stations than we have.
could be “their” weather stations… over ‘there’…
The tipping point these loons really need to worry about is the tipping point where normal, productive Americans (and others around the world) refuse to accept their far left ideology and rise up. It could get ugly.
If this “tipping point” nonsense was true, we would not be here today because the earth would have turned into another Venus when the dinosaurs were around. CO2 was way higher and there were no polar ice caps at all, and dinosaurs lived year-round in Antarctica (which was in the same place then as it is now). If the earth was going to go full-on Venus, it would have done so long ago….
Sorry but the climate will do whatever it will do. We can only adapt. Adapt or perish. We are just along for the ride.
The authors of the original article have done a good job compiling their and others’ lists of tipping points. However, I do not see how they draw their conclusions from the actual research data. Here is one of the worksheets from their Supplementary Information. I have edited a bit to highlight the time horizong they seem to be working with and the frequency with which the projections depend upon an IPCC scenario that has been widely discredited.
I’m interested in that graph, how come we haven’t seen that before and are we safe to use it in our discussions?
All gonna die.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/13/world-heading-into-uncharted-territory-of-destruction-says-climate-report
The wobbly moon effect is gunna tip them right over the edge-
‘Wobbly’ moon probable cause of mass tree deaths in Australia, scientists say (msn.com)
The social media giants are gunna have to protect the Gretas and griffs from this stuff. Is there anything CO2 can’t do?
Ahhhh, I see your problem.
Silly! The tipping point problem of today is different from the tipping point of 1750. That was obviously a 0.8C higher tipping point back then because we measure 1.5C from 1850, not from 1750 when the Earth was colder and had yet to go back to the normal temperature it had been for over 2,000 years, except for the odd Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. And because of the Little Ice Age that came after the Medieval Warm Period, all the melted ice from the MWP was there as water to freeze back into ice during the LIA, making SO much more ice by 1850 when fossil fuels started the postMWP extra ice melting again, today physics and people are different. Because climate change changes everything including scary movies about Climate Change, which you should see because Climate Change is really scary!
I hope this clears things up.
I’d love to see the actual math on how mankinds affect on less than .1% (CO2 and CH4) of the atmosphere is 100% responsible for anything but hyperbole.
That’s ‘hyperbowl’ according to our illustrious female ex PM but are you sitting down relaxed and comfortable? Because after years of painful onerous study I have finally discovered a report of a natural event that has not been blamed on CO2 dooming and hereby publish that result for peer reviewing-
Huge sections of Ningaloo coast’s famed Coral Bay reef ‘dead’ after spawning event (msn.com)
Meanwhile, NOAA data shows nothing going on except…cooling.
https://www.c3headlines.com/2022/07/those-stubborn-facts-per-noaa-global-cooling-since-2014-refutes-politicians-cult-of-the-co2-control-.html
“Also, with the tremendous adaptability humans have shown to changing climate conditions over time and widely varying environments and the consistent progress society has displayed accompanied by revolutionary technological innovations, there is no reason for believing that humans face any catastrophic tipping points now.”
Yes, humans are a species with great skill at adapting. That said, at no time prior to now that I know of, have humans had world leaders and power brokers so very determined to eliminate all the human mechanisms of adapting to climate change i.e. A/C, heating, transportation et al, all powered by fossil fuels.
Unfortunately, everything possible is being done to prevent human adaptations not only to climate change but to living comfortably with our current climate.
It is incomprehensible but it is what it is, astonishing and evil as it may be. Mankind has always been evil. I guess climate change policies are just the latest iteration of that evil.
There’s no clamming up on the tipping points any longer-
Clams Tell Us Why Earth Tipped Into a Mini Ice Age Hundreds of Years Ago (msn.com)
Looks like Cap has stumbled onto a real tipping point:
https://electroverse.co/pole-shift-and-low-solar-activity-global-environmental-crisis/
Looks like this is where Cap got his article:
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/earth-s-magnetic-field-broke-down-42-000-years-ago-and-caused-massive-sudden-climate-change-75611
It’s hard keeping up with all the tipping points and settled science-
Earth’s Sub-Freezing Regions Could Become a Paradise if Jupiter’s Orbit Shifts (msn.com)
What the super molecule CO2 can’t do eh?
There are no ketchup-effects in the climate system. The heat flow is wide open.
As if true positive feedbacks can exist everywhere in nature.
The never-ending atmospheric evolution that causes weather and climate are mathematically chaotic. Mathematical chaos theory, I believe, uses the term “phase changes” to describe the popular term “tipping points” in a chaotic system. It makes two predictions about such tipping points: 1) their TIMING cannot be predicted and 2) their SIGN cannot be predicted.
Thus, any actual scientist who talks seriously about tipping points is either an ignorant scientist or being deliberately deceptive. Most climate reporters are likely just the former of those two possibilities and can, perhaps, be forgiven. Scientists… not so much IMO.
What differentiates a “study” from a “major study”? Boy howdy, the latter sure sounds serious!
I must be missing something here, but if a number of these tipping points have already passed, why according to the UN’s own statistics has the world’s population, along with life expectancies and agricultural output, continued to grow, while poverty levels decrease? Maybe the planet and its inhabitants are a lot more resilient than the climate alarmists care to concede.