Sustainable Minerals Institute UQ
Speaker: Professor Simon Michaux, Associate Professor of Geometallurgy, Geological Survey of Finland
Abstract: The quantity of metal required to make just one generation of renewable tech units to replace fossil fuels, is much larger than first thought. Current mining production of these metals is not even close to meeting demand. Current reported mineral reserves are also not enough in size. Most concerning is copper as one of the flagged shortfalls. Exploration for more at required volumes will be difficult, with this seminar addressing these issues.
Bio: Simon Michaux is an Associate Professor of geometallurgy at the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) in KTR, the Circular Economy Solutions Unit. He holds a Bachelor of Applied Science degree in Physics and Geology and a PhD in Mining Engineering from the University of Queensland’s JKMRC. Simon has over 18 years experience in the Australian mining industry in research and development, 12 months at Ausenco in the private sector, and 3 years in Belgium at the University of Liege researching Circular Economy and industrial recycling. Work experience in Finland has been at GTK has been in the Minerals Intelligence in the MTR unit, before joining the KTR. Simon’s long term objectives include the development and transformation of the Circular Economy into a more practical system for the industrial ecosystem to navigate the twin challenges of the scarcity of technology minerals and the transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Available on our Videos page.
HT/Dean S
Are there any aspects of the notion of 100% wind + solar that meet the basic resource inputs requirements?
IT.WILL.JUST.NOT.WORK.
I reckon what we have going on now is desk-bound computer modeling “climate scientists” jumping their lane into the realms of hard-engineering challenges such as grid-scale production & distribution of uninterrupted electricity.
And the absence of expertise of “climate scientists” in the realms of energy supply are indisputably on show with their every utterance on this subject.
Stay in your lane girls & boys.
You’re making fools of yourselves.
The real problem is that they, and a complicit media, blame any and every failure upon fossil fuels, and a technically ignorant taxpayer base continues to swallow the lies.
However, I am finding an increase in CAGW adherents who do understand the problems when they are pointed out. My usual set of immediately obvious issues that all politicians are wilfully ignoring is:
1. We literally cannot physically get every car near a charging point. Europe is far worse than most places, with cars lining most streets in every city.
2. We need huge amounts of battery storage for 100% renewables, and we don’t have the lithium, or any alternative.
3. Heat pumps are almost useless for heating in cold countries. Geothermal declines in efficiency every year as it cools the available underground.
4. The increased need for electricity to allow for heating and EVs, perhaps as much as triple current demand, is being completely ignored.
These are just the main, and extremely obvious, points. Once sensible people have them pointed out, without any mention of how useless the whole thing is anyway, they start realising that sensible things like nuclear are the only way forward. They still utterly fail to appreciate the scale required, but it is at least a step towards sanity.
For anyone with an IQ above 100 it should be obvious that the lack of a drive to have a Manhattan style effort to build Nuclear Power plants, their restriction, and forced shutdown is a “tell” that CO2 is not the problem. Numerous studies have shown that NPPs have CO2 emission levels in the same ballpark as Wind and or Solar for conception to return to as found. The present effort has no plans to apply common recycling efforts and decommission/remove dilapidated Wind/Solar facilities greatly increasing the impact on Nature.
I read a comment somewhere the other day that charging cables and on street parking represent a trip hazard. Especially where there’s a decent gap between power source and vehicle.
Another source of income for lawyers and scammers
Don’t worry. If they contain copper they will all get stolen and sold for salvage. Especially since copper prices are going to soar as demand exceeds supply.
Beyond the weather dependence aspect the renewable problem is one of density (I am your Density) (certainly not destiny).
Both Wind and Solar require vast amounts of space to produce minute amounts of energy.
12 acres will support 8 – 2MW turbines and produce anywhere between 16MW (optimal sustained wind speed) and 0MW (too little or too much wind).
Solar, on the other hand, requires about 10 acres of land per MW And can only deliver that MW of generation for 4 hours per day.
Why waste materials requiring extensive mining and expensive refining on such a low density energy return?
Nuclear uses less concrete than wind turbines per MW generated and 12 acres is sufficient to house 2-1100MW units that can produce 2200MW 92% of the time every day regardless of weather.
At 16MW per 12 acres wind requires 1650 acres to produce 2200MW at optimal wind but can still produce 0MW in unfavorable weather conditions. Coupled with winds capacity factor of about 33-34%, wind actually requires 4950 acres to generate the equivalent of 2,200MW in a 24 hour period. And an overcapacity of 300%
At 10 acres per MW solar requires 22,000 acres to produce 2200MW for 4 hours per day. Coupled with Solaris capacity factor of 20%, solar actually requires 6 times that or 132,000 acres to generate the equivalent of 2,200MW in a 24 hour period. And an overcapacity of 600%
Due to the necessary Overcapacity inherent in wind and solar, massive battery storage is required to collect the overcapacity production so it is available when generation drops off. This also introduces inefficiencies that would require further overcapacity installation to offset losses in the system.
No question nuclear requires much less space than wind or solar, but 2 Gigawatt reactors and all the other necessary facilities to run them will not fit in 12 acres.
I just toured Plant Vogtle and there are over 12 acres of dry cask waste storage yards alone (almost completely empty, BTW). By the time you have the reactors, control rooms, cooling towers, waste storage yards, water intake channels and employee parking lots you have blown way past the 6 acres/reactor figure.
Here is a Google Earth link to the part of Plant Vogtle occupied by the operating reactors 1 and 2 together with their cooling towers. The rectangle containing all that measures 509,449 sq. meters, or 126 acres.
<https://earth.google.com/web/search/Alvin+W.+Vogtle+Electric+Generating+Plant,+River+Road,+Waynesboro,+GA/@33.14515174,-81.76325868,66.31533916a,2257.16293684d,35y,239.00103099h,0t,0r/data=CigiJgokCaxj1TjF8UBAEZajusNu8UBAGR3XldkQDVXAIXznQTeLDVXA>
As you can see there is substantial area devoted to parking for the 1,000 or so permanent employees plus all the construction workers building out units 3 and 4.
If I draw a rough polygon enclosing all the built-up areas of Plant Vogtle containing all four reactors, Google Earth tells me it adds up to 6.64 sq. km, or 1,640 acres. For 4,536 MW of output, this amounts to 2.77 MW / acre or 683 MW / sq. km.
Diablo Canyon Power Plant is on approximately 750 acres (300 ha) of land located just west of Avila Beach, California. The power-producing portion of the plant occupies around 12 acres (4.9 ha) for two 1138MW units. PG&E owns a total of 12,820 acres of land at the site
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diablo_Canyon_Power_Plant
Bryan:
This is not an honest comparison. It would be like claiming wind turbans only require enough space for the swept area of the blades. Simple fact is you can’t operate a nuclear plant without all the other facilities I mentioned above. If I look at Diablo Canyon in Google Earth and draw a rough polygon around all the built-up areas it shows 129 acres. There are 2 acres devoted to the dry-cask storage yard alone (about 40% occupied), and another 3 acres of what appear to be cooling pools immediately adjacent. Approximately another 12 acres for parking lots and 14 or so for the high-voltage interconnects. Plus a bunch of other buildings which I have to assume are in some way essential for operating the plant.
Unlike Vogtle, Diablo Canyon does not have cooling towers, which take more space than the reactors themselves.
Your essential point is correct: nuclear power plants need significantly less space than wind or solar for the same capacity, but 12 acres is simply not a fair accounting of what two operating reactors actually require.
Let me try this again: link to Google Earth view of Diablo Canyon:
https://earth.google.com/web/search/Diablo+Canyon+Power+Plant,+Diablo+Canyon+Road,+Avila+Beach,+CA/@35.20909246,-120.85459058,25.22977979a,242.90661849d,35y,273.69257257h,0t,0r/data=CigiJgokCetwB_bglEBAEY10Nm0Lj0BAGVkMKEkSbVTAIVtzCyL2dFTA
This will fund the new Green Utopia. Cables will be manufactured, bought and used. Then stolen, sold for scrap, and the copper used to manufacture new cables, to sell to the same customers.
It’s Green Jobs all around, a perpetual jobs machine in the making!
ZZ
Yes! The Circular Economy.
[aka a c___ jerk] sarc/
Agreed. The only way to get people out of this madness is to point out that the policies advocated by the greens are basically impossible to implement. And, if implemented, are anyway ineffective.
Focus on policy, and its an everyday kind of debate, the kind of debate people are used to having. How big a radiator do we need for the living room? Is a microwave cheaper to cook with than the regular oven? Is it worth adding more insulation in the loft? Should we trade in the car for one with better mileage?
The great thing about focussing on policy is that the ‘climate denier’ accusation stops working — any more than it would work if someone were accused of being a denier because they thought their house needed a bigger boiler or that this job needs a mains powered drill.
Watch the UK this winter as the canary. If the return to sanity has started you will see a U-turn on Net Zero. The early signs are somewhat encouraging, but its certainly not a done deal, and there are enough policy makers determined to drive the country into the ground that it could still happen.
What we must hope for is continued hysteria in the Guardian and BBC about how the climate is doomed, coupled with a reversion to common sense among politicians on policy, of the kind we are seeing in the German Green Party, and a quiet repeal of the Climate Change Act. Though it will not be called that, it will be a postponement of the target, or some supposedly temporary measures to get through the fuel crisis.
The discouraging sign is that Truss, the likely new PM, still seems to be talking the green rants. Hopefully confrontation with the realities of office will change her mind.
I am not optimistic about the British media reporting with any honesty about any aspect of global warming. Up to two years ago, I regularly had letters published in various newspapers pointing out the flaws in the green articles they were printing. I cannot get any letter published in any newspaper now. The newspapers must know that the green articles they are printing are nonsense; but they all seem to have taken a joint policy decision to suppress any criticism of the green bible. I expect any energy blackouts this winter to be blamed on fossil fuels and the message will be that we must double down on renewable energy.
G’Day Zig Zag Wanderer,
“Heat pumps are almost useless for heating in cold countries.”
Even Arizona at 4,500 feet elevation can get cold enough. December 2021. Temperatures in the mid 30’s (F) and some snow. The fins on the unit turned to ice. The system went to ‘resistance’ heating. Three days for the ice to melt. Daily usage: 64kWh, even with the thermostat turned down and wearing ‘winter’ clothing indoors. It happened twice that month. Expensive.
The last time I lived with a heat pump, the pumps would reverse themselves about once an hour and run in A/C mode in order to melt the ice.
Thanks Mark W,
Appreciate the information. The system came with, I believe, three booklets, each about 32 pages of darn small printing. Have to dig them out and see if there’s any mention of icing.
Either that or get make and model and do a search online. Probably faster and much easier on these old eyes.
It’s not just resource inputs. Wind and solar are very intermittent (capacity factors at best 35% and 25% respectively in the best locations), meaning they need backup for a reliable grid. There is NO known storage system (measured in MWh, NOT MW) capable of that amount of grid backup. So means there must be an underutilized fossil fuel fired (CCGT) complete duplicate generation system. Very costly on top of inherently costly wind and solar (if they were competitive would not need subsidies).
The benefit in this attack on net zero is that it has nothing at all to do with if the system work or not. It assumes it does, then dismantles all support for it.
That’s right Dean. Failure is assumed with the result being severe poverty and depopulation. That’s the end goal. Better data and sharper equations are a Fool’s Errand when the ultimate end is dismantling Industrial Civilization itself and elimination of billions of people across the globe. Unfortunately WUWT readers don’t grasp the dynamics in play and think that they’ll win the day with stronger arguments.
In reality it needs to be TWh
Mega, Giga, Tera. What’s next? Whatever it is, that’s what the cost of this boondoggle will be measured in.
“…So means there must be an underutilized fossil fuel fired (CCGT) complete duplicate generation system. Very costly on top of inherently costly wind and solar (if they were competitive would not need subsidies).”
If the the backup systems for wind and solar work, why not switch the roles?
Rely on the fossil fueled, nuclear and hydro generated power and use wind and solar for backup?
(Oh. That’s right. Wind and solar don’t work at grid scale.)
And don’t forget the subsidy harvesting.
You could just put the period after “work” and save some words…
But the solar panel on my 30 year old calculator still works.
(But I doubt if it could power my house. There is a niche for such things. A small niche.)
I would imagine that the light needs to be brighter than 30 years ago, in order to power that calculator.
On the the other hand, your eyes are also 30 years older, so maybe you didn’t notice.
BTW, there’s someone out there posting as Gunda Din, who’s pretending to be you. (*;
That was me. Typo when I put my name in on my first comment.
(At least I didn’t type “Gunga Dum”! 😎
You don’t seem to understand: Grandiose Green New Deal scenarios are designed to fail… because the problem isnindustrial civilization itself and the large urban populations industrial civilization supports. The goal is a new equilibrium population based on what 17th century technology can support.
The brutal winter in store for the EU is a prototype of “grin and bear it” Great Reset-Green New Deal.
Your calculations and engineering refutations miss the point.
You don’t seem to understand: Grandiose Green New Deal scenarios are designed to fail… because the problem is considered to be industrial civilization itself and the large urban populations industrial civilization supports. The goal is a new equilibrium population based on what 17th century technology can support.
The brutal winter in store for the EU is a prototype of “grin and bear it” Great Reset-Green New Deal.
Your calculations and engineering refutations miss the point.
The correct observation you’ve made is that engineers must design and make things that actually function reliably in order to keep their livelihood. Scientists get paid (mostly by taxpayers) to conjecture and hypothesize and rarely, if ever, suffer when wrong. Once upon a time scientists had to convince a friendly prince to underwrite their hobbies.
Scientists get paid (mostly by taxpayers) to conjecture and hypothesize and rarely, if ever, suffer when wrong.
Much like lawyers. They almost never pay for the troubles they cause.
Wow, down voted.
Must have been a lawyer.
Don’t know why he would be offended. Heck, the #1 Democrat special interest just got a cash cow passed by congress, billions for the Camp Lejeune water contamination. Not distributed directly but through lawsuits where lawyers will collect billions.
A law written by lawyers for lawyers, as most of them are.
I often thought that Lawyers who adjudicate Class Action Suits should only be paid the same as a member of the class.
If the suit pays say $300,000,000 and distributes $2,500 to each class member, the Lawyer should also only get $2,500 not $100,000,000
From what I have been seeing, Mr., they were already fools, proving it with everything they say!
As for electric buggies, if the UK alone were to ban all real autos by 2030 and replace them with buggies, as the unlamented Boris Johnson demanded, nearly all the global supply of lithium would be consumed. So, if the rest of you want buggies, you can’t have them.
Good to see you commenting, Viscount Monckton.
You and your family are in my prayers as you mourn the loss of your mother.
General Motors has found new technology to avoid the metals shortage as
Chevrolet can now supply the people with all the buggies they want!
(h/t Babylon Bee)
Brand new jobs for government workers – collecting all the horse apples off the roads.
With their teeth!
Occasional Cortex first!
Well, during the food shortages, their ‘fruit’ intake will be adequate.
Glad I hung onto that buggy-whip stock!
Who needs charging stations?
https://www.metatube.com/en/videos/303056/SNL-Julia-Louis-Dreyfus-Does-Commercial-For-Battery-Operated-Mercedes-AA-Class-Car/embed/
But if you do …
https://twitter.com/MercedesBenzUSA/status/722143311977439232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw 😎
OOPS!
Misspelled my own “name”!
One of the best parody ads EVAH
Perhaps this will solve the problem…
An electric Stanley Steamer!
Love it!
“You’re a better man than I am, Gunga Din” +10
Needs an attachment to handle methane emissions.
If you’re going to believe in a sham catastrophic you might as well apply a sham solution.
(((applause!)))
Like ShamWOW to soak up all that excess CO2 like a sponge
Sham solution? I think you totally miss the point.
Its using logic to dismantle the net zero solution, not by attacking the religion (which is going to be almost impossible to achieve) but by asking the simple question “where do you get the stuff to actually construct your solution”.
Shouting “you are wrong because CO2 is not driving climate change” has not worked at all in terms of modifying policy.
No Dean, maybe I wasn’t clear. My view is we don’t need those materials because the reason for mining them is a sham. Wind and solar can’t replace fossil fuels and nuclear so there is no need for exotic minerals to construct batteries or anything else related to wind and or solar.
This was commented on in previous posts.
For high EV penetration there are at least three mineral deficiencies: lithium, cobalt for cathodes, and rare earths for permanent motor magnets. Maybe copper, maybe nickel. Tesla has shown that EV battery copper and nickel and aluminum be economically recycled. But not yet the lithium and cobalt.
For wind turbines there are at least two: rare earths for generator permanent magnets, and copper for generator windings. For the high steel alloy axial bearings, maybe also molybdenum.
Ironically, the two main unexploited primarily copper deposits left in the US—Pebble Creek in Alaska and Boundary Waters in Minnesota—both nixed by Biden on environmental grounds.
The big rare earths mine in CA, Mountain Pass, was bankrupted by China after MP invested over a $billion in a new ore processing system to meet US environmental regs after China restricted exports. China just dumps toxic processing waste sludge, and loosened it’s export controls specifically to bankrupt Mountain Pass.
The renewable energy fanatics also ignore the fact that, in addition to EVs and wind/solar facilities, copper is still needed for a lot of more conventional applications. Such as house and commercial building wiring, electric motors in manufacturing equipment and appliances, and so many other uses that cannot be mentioned here.
There is a partial substitute for residential and commercial wiring, higher gauge aluminum wires. Problem is, they don’t fine braid (surface oxidation increases resistance since AC conduction is a skin effect) so are very stiff and difficult to work into convoluted conduits. Good news, we took copper mostly out of telecom in favor of fiber optics. Bad news, all that copper has already been recycled.
Copper is now so valuable that the US penny has been copper plated zinc for decades.
OTH, cut a modern penny in halves, sand the copper plate off one half, stick both halves into slits in a lemon about 1 cm apart, attach (solder) fine wires to a small bulb to use the ‘battery’ electricity, and you have just made a VOLTA pile electrochemical battery with lemon juice electrolyte and zinc/copper as the electrodes. Was fun amazing my kids early science fairs with such basic stuff. We progressed to electric motors made with copper windings, an iron nail rotor core, and a paper clip based stator for reversing the DC flow. Needed a 9V real battery for that one.
Thanks for the interesting info on Al wires.
I hope you led your kids afterwards to a crystal radio made from a bent safety pin, razor blade and cardboard toilet roll wrapped in copper wire. You needed no power; just earphones. You often got several radio stations at once but that was part of the fun.
That takes me w-a-a-y back, Alastair. The grand prize (US) was getting a baseball game, any game.
Then came cheap transistor radios and no kid wanted to make their own radios anymore. I guess back then that was the equivalent of getting your own smart phone.
–
–
I suppose kids don’t pass notes in class anymore, either. That was always risky business.
What did you use for a detector (rectifier/diode)?
Cats whisker and crystal. They used to be sold by our local radio shop in the 1950s. It was ‘fun’ trying to find the best place on the crystal for good reception. There was a powerful radio transmitter about 20km away so it was easy to find that one; difficult for finding any others.
I was assuming that Alastair’s safety pin was being used as the cat whisker, but without a piece of galena, it would be useless.
The first attempt at aluminum home wiring was in the 70s and it was a fire hazard. The difference in expansion between the brass fixtures and aluminum combined with the oxidization problem put an early end to aluminum wire until new hardware could be produced that addressed the problem. Aluminum is fine for power transmission but homes are still wired with copper because of the past problems with it.
Agreed. The manufacturers even made copper clad aluminum to attempt to solve the oxidation problem, it was not worth the trouble.
There are receptacles made for aluminum conductors (co-alr), check them out, $5 US compared to less than $.50 for a regular economy copper compatible receptacle.
And still the proper installation (torque of the screw and/or antioxidant) is MORE important with Al wired connections.
Salute!
Good education on the wires, and we saw the copper wire stuff in WW2.
So we used silver wires for many aircraft systems and such. That may be the coming solution, but the current administration seems to be against the mining industry as much as the fossil fuel industry.
Trying to explain the size of the wires versus resistance per foot/meter/mile is like preaching to a post. And the size of the cables to all our houses/apartments and such to charge our electric cars will require huge wires sizes….. gonna be interesting.
Huh?
The rare minerals required for the other hardware and electrical aspects of getting the volts and amps to your garage or parking space is just another of the hundred engineering and electrical facts of life the greenies do not understand.
Gums sends…
I’ve been told that a lot of the high voltage power lines are made from aluminum. Even with the larger diameters that are needed because of the lower conductivity, aluminum wires still weigh a lot less than equivalent copper wires.
Very nearly all of the overhead power transmission and distribution cables are made of aluminum.
Far cheaper and far lighter…half the weight.
They only use the aluminum on the outer surface of the cable though…that is where the electricity is conducted. The core is high strength steel. Because even aluminum is expensive when you need thousands of miles of it for a single neighborhood. They need the steel in there so the cable can support it’s own weight and be placed under tension without deforming.
Here is a picture of a sample of it:
Except for the fact that 20% of US aluminum production was just shuttered, due to the high cost of electricity. Industrial capacity is rapidly dwindling, at a time when the Climate Nutters need more of it. Nicely executed “transition” Brandon.
And the same thing is happening in Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/arcelormittal-shut-blast-furnace-german-plant-gas-prices-soar-2022-09-02/
Not sure if this is still in operation. Uses hydro-electricity for power. The smelter and power station used to be owned by the same company I think
Liberty British Aluminium smelter in Fort William
Typically when electricity prices skyrocket, aluminum smelters are shuttered, because the aluminum companies can make more money selling electricity than manufacturing.
Which just goes to show that all energy production is, at its roots, fossil fuel based.
There IS NOT, nor will there EVER BE, a ” transition” away from fossil fuels.
An important new use of copper will be the charging stations at both home and on the road. This will be a new demand created directly by the forced transition by people who don’t have a clue where copper comes from.
Arizona.
Copper mining has been important in Arizona for a long time, but Nevada and especially Utah (Bingham Canyon) also produce it. Formerly, native copper was important in the upper-peninsula of Michigan, and there are still reserves in the mine dumps. Although, in recent years the dump material has been crushed for road aggregate instead of the copper it contains. There are undeveloped reserves of chalcocite (copper sulfide) that might be tapped, if Democrats don’t prevent it. The point being, that someone like Biden doesn’t have a clue about where copper is found and what is necessary to increase production. He just assumes it will be available when needed.
Arizona is the only state I’m aware of where new mines are actually being approved.
That will have to change if Not-My-President Biden wants to push electrification of transportation. My point was, is that he is oblivious to these details. He acts as if the copper will magically appear when someone orders a huge amount of copper wire.
Big old dead stars.
Labor and environment arbitrage in a not so novel Green New Deal with present and forward-looking collateral damage.
I believe that China is now in financial control of the Mountain Pass property.
The Chinese hold what is described as a “minority non-voting” share of ownership.
https://mpmaterials.com/about/#history
Thanks for the link.
Copper has been recycleable all my life. Problem is making it cost effective.
After TSR2 was scrapped where I was working in the late 1960s on a summer job there was a lot of redundant electronic equipment nobody knew what to do with. One of my tasks was to remove the wiring loom and make a fire to burn off the insulation so the copper wire could be sold.
I don’t think that even though I was paid peanuts it was really cost effective, Has the environment has recovered from burning the insulation? Probably not.
Nickel for batteries needs to be high purity.Not sure how nickel in a battery degrades and how this might affect reuse.Russia is the world’s largest producer of class one nickel for batteries providing over 20%.
China and Russia thus have large control over EV production.
.China produces 76% of EV batteries and dominates the entire graphite anode supply chain with 80% of global graphite mining.
The problem is that Simon has been taught old physics. That is where trivial detail like energy cannot be created from nothing still applies.
The new phiisics of climate science has no such trivial constraints. The climate scientists and their political supporters are rewriting the laws of physics so anything is possible.
I expect they will realise in due course that they can set up atmospheric energy extractors to get some of that back-radiation that is generated from CO2.
I learnt today that the head of Snowy Hydro, Paul Broad, quit after a tiff with new Energy and Climate Change Minister, Chris Bowen over the mandate to run the new Kurri Kurri gas plant on green hydrogen by 2030:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/snowy-hydro-boss-paul-broad-resigns-20220826-p5bd3j.html
Who would want to work with Bowen?
He clearly has a case of terminal crazy.
Wasn’t his solution for persistent under-supply of electricity demand from renewables that more wind & solar be installed, while decommissioning proven, reliable coal & gas plants?
Einstein told us all – doing the same thing over & over and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.
If you look at his work history, Bowen has never had a real job.
He has been a political carnival barker for the worst leftist policy ideas ever conceived.
Typical uneducated ignorant politician!
What does reality have to do with the fantasy they keep pushing?
1. Start at 2:10 and you’ll spare yourself some aggravation.
2. 5:59 “So, we wish to replace oil.”
Comment: Not true. People who will get rich off what would replace oil and also people whose ignorance leads them to believe replacing oil is worthwhile want to replace oil.
If Michaux does NOT want to replace oil, he should say: “If one wanted to (and I do not) replace oil, these are the facts one must face.”
[After reviewing Michaux’s paper, quoted below, it is clear that he does “wish to replace oil.”]
3. 7:50 Misleading – “Most of the time, we’re actually using more oil than we’re discovering.”
4. 8:53 “Global oil production would have peaked in 2016.”
5. 9:02 “So, this is actually what we need to replace. … we don’t really have 50 years to get into it, we need to get into it, now.” – FALSE ASSUMPTION.
From here, on, I stopped listening and began reading his paper, quoted below:
… one fundamental question that remains regarding the whole supply chain of battery minerals is the sufficiency of raw materials for the green energy transition.
In fact, there are quite recent estimations that not enough production can be ramped up in the necessary time to achieve carbon neutrality and that other solutions should be sought beyond traffic electrification and wind turbines, such as a systemic societal change in which consumption is reduced and the circular economy is strengthened(Granvik et al. 2021, IEA 2021b, Michaux 2021. …
[Note: “Circular” is their cute little way of saying, “global” which is, in reality, communism.]
(Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354067356_Assessment_of_the_Extra_Capacity_Required_of_Alternative_Energy_Electrical_Power_Systems_to_Completely_Replace_Fossil_Fuels (emphasis mine))
… In conclusion, this report suggests that replacing the existing fossil fuel powered system (oil, gas, and coal), using renewable technologies, such as solar panels or wind turbines, will not be possible for the entire global human population. There is simply just not enough time, nor resources to do this by the current target set by the World’s most influential nations.
What may be required, therefore, is a significant reduction of societal demand for all resources, of all kinds. This implies a very different social contract and a radically different system of governance to what is in place today.
Inevitably, this leads to the conclusion that the existing renewable energy sectors and the EV technology systems are merely steppingstones to something else, rather than the final solution. It is recommended that some thought be given to this and what that something else might be.
***
In theory, there are enough global reserves of nickel and lithium if they were exclusively used just to produce li-Ion batteries for vehicles. To make just one battery for each vehicle in the global transport fleet (excluding Class 8 HCV trucks), it would require 48.2% of 2018 global nickel reserves, and 43.8% of global lithium reserves (Source: USGS Mineral Statistics). There is not enough cobalt in current reserves to meet this demand and more will have to be discovered in exploration. In practice, this will not work due to other demand application requirements, and that this represents only one generation of batteries of the current vehicle fleet.
Every ten years from that point onwards, the same mass requirement would be needed all over again to produce the next generation of EV battery.
***
It is recommended here to consider the phasing out the use of industrial fertilizers, which would mean a restructuring of what is termed industrial agriculture.
The most environmentally balanced solution would be the widespread application of small-scale organic farming, and the use of organically produced fertilizers, that have been produced at an industrial scale.
***
[Malthus strikes again, below]
Underlying all of these other challenges is the ever-growing human population. … As society now attempts to transition away from fossil fuels (the most calorifically dense energy source historically ever seen), by rebuilding the largest and most technologically complex economy in history, using comparatively less effective energy systems, there is greater pressure than ever before to do more with less resources.
***
28.2 … oil is still the most calorifically dense.
[Yet, we must get rid of it based on: NO DATA AT ALL (i.e., no data proving human CO2 emissions are likely to cause significant shifts in the climate zones of the earth).]
There are two fundamental reasons to phase oil. The first being to mitigate climates change, where the problem is the carbon pollution waste plume from the use of ICE engine technology. ***
Bottom line: While he has some good analysis, much is skewed by his bias to “mitigate climates change.” He gets the entire scenario wrong because he is basing it on a false assumption.
(Source: Full Michaux report:
https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/42_2021.pdf (emphases mine)
JM, well done deep dive.
Aw, Mr. Istvan. THANK YOU 😊
Not very deep at all. Michaux gave a free webinar on this through the Sustainability section of the geoscience department in UQ 10 days ago
The link to the full paper was given there to anyone who wished to download it.
Given that Net Zero is indeed about eliminating “fossil” fuels, Michaux is using that destructive premise to tease out its’ full ramifications.
As usual, those who rush to try and discredit such analytical attempts, however off-the-mark they may turn out to be, simply ignore the factual geology. Two obvious conclusions stand out from Michaux’s paper (neither of which Janice Moore touches):
1) the actual geological exploration, engineering geology and mining required to supply copper and aluminium at this scale is beyond enormous. Lithium mining in Australia will need to be at scale larger than current iron ore extraction, as spodumene etc have at best a few % of the required element. For geoscientists such as myself, this is a joyful prospect
2) conclusion 1) above will so alarm green activists (when the scale is finally understood) that there will be concerted efforts world wide to prevent it through legislation. Relying on China and Russia is a failed experiment.
Nitpicking doesn’t cut it. The scale required to supply raw materials for the first generation of Net Zero is such that it cannot happen for many decades. For example, the known copper ore Resource deposits, of all grades, is some 9000% short of that required. It cannot be mined till it is found. My view of this is that it will be considered easier by the activist elite progressively to reduce living standards – maintaing sections of the police forces as militia is much the cheapest.
The elite are obviously working on global depopulation aka societal change. The current virus is just the first trial balloon. Expect a few more serious attempts in the near future. If that doesn’t work quick enough, there’s always Global Thermonuclear War.
In your rush to point out what others have missed, you’re missing the big picture yourself.
THERE WILL NEVER BE a “transition” to “renewable energy” OR “electric cars,” period. Wind and solar CANNOT replace fossil fuels – they are, in fact, 100% DEPENDENT ON FOSSIL FUELS for their existence.
This will not change NO MATTER HOW MUCH of the materials needed to build colossally stupid things like industrial wind, industrial solar, and electric cars that they find.
It does NOT matter.
He did reference Climate, but I thought he was more focused on the “message” in the first 5-10 minutes of the presentation where he was suggesting that relatively cheap oil was no longer going to be available. I took that as his main thrust. By all means share his presentation because it shows that Plan A, as suggested by the alarmists, is bullshit. When petrochemicals do not run out, it will be easy for the person on the street to make a choice. On the one hand a tiny fraction of the energy they are used to having, using a green energy regime, or continued use of petrochemicals for plenty of low cost energy.
So we are all going to get one EV each, that will last about 10 years and then no more batteries.
Sounds like xmass when I was kid and you would get a really cool toy that comes with some cheap Chinese battery that lasts 5 minutes.
Going down the Sri Lanka Road
“…the widespread application of small-scale organic farming…’
We’ve already seen how that movie ends.
You’re spot on to call his comments on gas and oil misleading. I would say also, misinformed.
Janice, at this stage I am only looking for strong arguments to drive better policy decisions.
I don’t care if there are parts of an argument which I disagree with and I certainly will not let differences get in the way of trying to engage with people to help get a better decision.
Expecting people to totally agree with one point of view is pretty childish and not going to help things very much.
When you stated:
“Inevitably, this leads to the conclusion that the existing renewable energy sectors and the EV technology systems are merely steppingstones to something else, rather than the final solution. It is recommended that some thought be given to this and what that something else might be.”
I believe the proposed something else and the final solution revolves around less people and the ones left (except the chosen ones) using less resources. Of course the masses will have to be controlled in every aspect of their lives with a strict authoritarian world government.
This winter and next year will undoubtably be interesting times.
We have also seen The Final Solution before.
Ayn Rand stated MANY times throughout her works.. “check your Premises”. Ignored by SO many.
There aren’t sufficient resources to “transition” the current population at their current standard of living, but, if you have the power to ration you can reduce the standard of living down to the available resources.
It is always a question of power and much of EU seems interested in trying rationing & reduction of the standard of living this winter, using the excuse of the Ukraine.
Rationing is a nice try until you realize the grid does not ration well at survival levels. UK gas heating depends on electricity. Yes you can turn the thermostat down, but NOt to the point where exterior wall pipes might freeze. (In the northern US (my Wisconsin dairy farm when we were not there, the absolute minimum was 62F. Most UK pensioners coild not survive for days at 62F.
“…if you have the power to ration you can reduce the standard of living down to the available resources.”
The false assumption made there is that political power is as infinite as resources for green energy. History disproves that.
“The false assumption made there is that political power is as infinite as resources for green energy.”
Man, do I hope that is True!
Good presentation, even if the outcomes don’t sound too great. As to the “Green energy”/Renewables push, especially by environmentalists, I get a chuckle at how the resultant minerals requirement makes them in conflict with themselves. As they would put it: “To save Earth”, they will have to mine it to death.
And Turbines are massive bird killers and resource hogs, as well as infrasound machines. Solar PV are toxic, and are now being placed in areas where tornadoes have been in the past; how do you like your toxins – distributed into square miles of tiny flakes? Talk about chips…
Renewable drivers. Throwaway technology. Go Green, spread the blight.
A while back (couple years?) and maybe right here, it was said that if the UK were to switch to all EVs, the entire world supply of copper would be required.
Not to mention that China has been cornering the markets for rare earth metals for decades, and will be the place people will have to turn to get those metals, at THEIR prices. We are driving full speed straight into a brick wall, and almost no one seems to notice.
That’s why horses were fitted with blinders — so they wouldn’t react to dangers around them.
O.K…. horse blinders are where I am going next to invest..(if I have anything to invest)
Yes. China’s share of both light and heavy rare earths supply is around 95%
We have to destroy mother nature to save mother nature!
He started out with the big assumption that natural fuels can’t be a solution or part of the solution. I would never count fossil fuels out as a potential big part of the longer term solution.
And in doing so takes away all arguments about oil/no oil.
He accepts the net zero fantasy in total and shows it is bunkum.
Yes, without saying it outright he trots out Peak Oil. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt.
Greta Thunberg: “Why arent you doing something?”
Answer: Because there isn’t anything that needs doing.
Leo Smith: “If we build 60GW of nuclear, why would we need any windmills?”
Deafening silence.
So, it’s worse than we thought.
Does he really believe this? I mean, maybe fossil fuels aren’t that bad? Otherwise it all seems pretty hopeless, no?
This article alone has had massive cut through with my friends who are totally committed to net zero.
After watching this they realise it is never going to work. No other debate we have had has impacted their thinking as much.
The fact this guy works in the circular economy academic area gives him high credibility in my friends eyes.
It is good to know that people can have their eyes opened, but the bigger problem is that the real agenda is not environmental or energy sector transformation but achieving some lofty goals of economic and social justice. A lot of people can never let go of those.
The feedback effects on other demand sectors from bidding up copper prices will be painful. We already have shotgun houses like the one Johnny Cash grew up in now selling for $600,000 in Colorado. The middle class will be homeless nomads at this rate. Bring a tent and in the UK and Europe they can stop saying flats and switch to (small) cubes.
I wonder where we would be on battery tech if Obama had not wasted his billion dollar slings of taxpayer money to biofuels from pine trees, Solyndra, Crescent Dunes, and a host of other bets on the most unlikely to succeed snake oil deals. Now we’re in new wasteful hurry-up battery research mode with Biden billions and trillions. Why worry about shortages if you are no where near affordability in the first place? Better pre order your scooter now or start a dealership for scooters.
We would be pretty much where we are. Rechargeable batteries date to Thomas Edison and evolution has been slow because of the surface area limitation. You must expose the surfaces to an electrolyte for the reaction to take place. In addition, there needs to be material to hold the whole thing together and to conduct the power produced. When you burn something, everything is eventually exposed to air however that isn’t possible in a battery. The best solution would be a fuel cell but that requires a hydrocarbon which is not what the green movement wants or hydrogen which again require a hydrocarbon or a very wasteful conversion from water to hydrogen. Magic only exist in fairy tales.
A little relevant relativism:
Solyndra – $400 million
Biden’s Student Loan Debt Transference: $500 Billon – $1 Trillion. Actual amount not yet known.
Decent comparison… Thanks… both wasteful.
Roaddog
Yes. WSJ reported 9-6-22 that Wharton School at Penn estimated nearly a $1Trillion cost of the student loan bill by using dynamic scoring. Biden’s handlers used static scoring to get a much lower number. [politicians on both sides of the aisle love static scoring for the same reason — it produces lower numbers so as to fool us taxpayers]
The reactor operator for the second core for a new air craft carrier has not been born yet.
Do not tell me batteries are a good way to store energy.
Do not tell me LWR can not changed power fast enoung to load follow. Been there done that got a belt buckle.
The copper and crome used to build my first commercial nuke has not been recyled. Because the plant is still running running after the 40 year design life.
My boss at that plant got his nuclear experience on the NS Savanah. So do not tell me merchant ships will be fueled by hydrogen.
Hydrogen will not be produced by electricty from wind and solar. Modular and passive safe high temperature gas cooled reactors will produce hydrogen for refineries for make syhtethic liqujid fuel to power ICE. The ICE is not going away because diesel fuel is easy to store and does not detonate.
So if you are a mining engineer who is clueless about making electricty, there is work for you opening uranium mine.
I only have an issue with one point. With the waste problem, perhaps we should be looking at breeders reactors or thorium. Nobody is ever going to want waste stored in their backyard so we need to find a way to recycle and extract energy from it. jimmy Carter pretty well blocked one approach so we need a different approach for the next generation of reactors.
What problem is that again?
This is a straw man issue. The nuclear industry does not have a problem with spent fuel. One of my responsiblities.
Wind and solar produce more hazardous waste per kwh and because it is not radiaactive it does not go away.
US EPA regulations do not premit recycling hazardous waste. I worked a nuclear fuel fabrication faclity that used to have three hazardous waste streams that made us the second largest in the county after the US goverment.
In a deal worked out with the state, process equaipent was added to make 3 saleable products and have zero hazardous waste.
For example, food is not a waste till you drop it on the ground. For example, if a milk truck overturns, it is hazardous waste. If spills someplace where spills are measured for radioactivity, then the dirt is sent to a low level radiative waste faclity.
All of these facts mean nothing. Nothing. Emotion and ideology drive the AGW narrative. If sanity is going to win this battle it will take both time and MSM support. It has been half a century since fossil fuels have been accused of causing excessive world cold then heat backed up by “science”. Sometimes I get the sense that people are figuring out the scam but the MSM keeps supporting AGW. I believe the MSM is bought and we’re the victims.
Hmmm… I read enough rants… er, posts – here about how some leftist cabal will take over the world and take away everyones car/heat/energy etc based on rightist ideology to suspect there is emotion and ideology on both sides of the climate argument. and the emotion stirred up by one Swedish teenager…
“Action must be powerful and wide-ranging.
After all, the climate crisis is not just about the environment.
It is a crisis of human rights, of justice, and of political will.
Colonial, racist, and patriarchal systems of oppression have created and fueled it.
We need to dismantle them all.”
Greta Thunberg
“patriarchal systems of oppression”.
Why does she hate Dad?
People who think they are smart, use big words.
People who are actually smart, know what those words mean.
griff thinks that quoting his leaders is evidence of conspiracy thinking.
I am SO blessed and thankful to have discovered WUWT years ago, which has resulted in the tremendous gain in ‘Learning’ of True Science. Part of that ‘gain’ has been the recognition of the Lack of ‘gain’ on the part of one such as a ‘griff’.
There cannot possibly be enough electricity (never mind EVs) to go around in a “renewable”-energy economy..
So either they’re planning on us not having any …or they’re planning on us not being there.
First the former, then the latter.
Engineer – somebody who on the back of an envelope can design something that will work.
Politician – somebody who in a thousand pages can design something that will never work.
Draftsman – someone who can look at the engineer’s envelope and translate into a common language 😀
Drafties are seriously unrepresented in the thanks department.
Next time you meet a draftie you should buy them a drink and shout them dinner as thanks to the significant work they do behind the scenes to ensure the engineering ideas actually get transformed into working and documented concepts.
If you can’t find a draftie to thank I will be at the pub from 4 oclock onwards… 😀
As I do software, I take care of concept to code. When we needed hardware to run the code, we were a small shop and did our own CAD work. I don’t drink but if the bar serves good food, you might find me there. The problem is it would be a very long flight to get where you are and I may fly once every few years. Still, meeting up isn’t a bad idea.
In my first job, I worked for a small company that built EPROM programmers.
I wrote the code (6805 assembly), designed the circuitry, laid out the circuit board (using tape and exacto knives), ordered the parts, designed the cabinet and did most of the documentation.
Did I mention that it was a small company?
I thought it might have been you, but one of the first EPROM programmers I bought/built was a SMARTZAP from Microkit Electronics in Michigan; they used an 8031. I did my Masters of Electrical Engineering involving code for a Computer Automation Minicomputer (made by former DEC alumini). They made the autoindex function part of the address (not like DEC, who assigned 8 ports in low memory as dedicated autoindex ports). I used three layers of pre-inde-offset-post-index-offset access to create a floating point processor that eventually resulted in a program that controlled the electrical power flow between Alberta and Bristish Columbia. Good times.
I cannot believe how quickly( and without out any real discussion) this guy dismissed nuclear power. This is the first “tell” on what group he is actually part of. But good reality check ammo to fire at nut jobs. The Nut Zero plan- just a suicide pact.
It absolutely is – because the ‘net’ part of it is referring to Biomass/Biofuel and the effective destruction of plants. Equally or, the circulation of huge amounts of money in the form of ‘environmental credits’
But that money can and will only ever be spent on destroying ever more, ultimately, plants
And it is plants, via the power they exert on water (and vice-versa) that controls weather, thus Climate
But just like saturated fat, salt, ozone, acid rain – the science of CO2 is soooooo wrong that it’s currently impossible to see how to turn it around.
As was always said about Supertankers carrying crude oil.
To learn the lesson, at least one or two need to crash, burn and sink.
Will Germany, UK (possibly all of Europe) suffice as ‘crash-burners’….
This underlines the absurdity of BWM putting 2,440kg of expensive crap on four wheels, called an iX, to carry an 80kg driver on maybe daily journeys of a few kilometres.
A rural Kenyan can double his income and dramatically improve his and his family’s quality of life by acquiring a 10kg bicycle.
The worst thing about the coming winter is that the wealthy Germans making the profit from building behemoths will not need to ration energy, food and other luxuries of life.
Intriguing talk. What I didn’t hear(maybe I missed it) was any accounting of improving fuel efficiency and the continuing improving of products using less electricity for the same performance.
Have you heard of the concept of the point of diminishing returns? Most of the low-hanging fruit has already been picked.
I’ve heard that before. We were supposed to run out of food and oil by 2000. Human ingenuity is a very powerful tool.
Totally irrelevant to the point.
1) The guys claiming we were about to run out of food and oil were total nut jobs.
2) Do you honestly believe that because we made improvements in the past, therefore we can continue to make similar improvements ad infinitum?
Have you not noticed that the aim of present governments throughout the World, is to utterly destroy that ingenuity through their ‘control’ actions? If those actions continue, unstopped, Human “ingenuity” will be focussing on how to feed one’s family, with no hours to fund other pursuits.
We were discussing the efficiency of engines and light bulbs. Usually, what has to be done is to invent a new type of engine or light source rather than continuing to improve the old technology.
Ive been telling climate alarmists for years that you will have to literally dig up the earth to save it from big scary CO2. What could possibly go wrong? Hope I’m still around, just to see the look on the climate alarmists faces when they realise, what have we done. Enjoy kids.
If CO2 is really an evIl gas, then why do green zealots propose tge largest expansion of fossil fueled mining and manufacturing in world history, called Nut Zero?
An excellent talk based on what appear to be careful measurements of the current energy and materials mix, then extrapolated out to the pipe dream of replacing fossil fuels. Just not going to happen in the next decade or century from the way it looks to me. Someone better phone AOC and give her the bad news.
This Labor Day, we are reminded that should the AGW Cult have their way, the working class & middle class will be reduced.
This article expresses one facet of how expensive electric cars are for the working class and a large slice of the middle class…
They WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUY & DRIVE A CAR.
These cultists don’t realize (some do) how much this one fact will effect “prosperity” for regular Americans.
America without a robust car culture (individual & family) is a diminished America.
And a collapsed economy.
For the the “brain trust” of AGW the above is a feature, not a bug.
The solution is simple.
We just mine a few asteroids for the raw materials!
Maybe we’ll need to build some dilithium crystal chambers first. And develop Warp Drive.
But that should be easy after we develop and build a few cold fusion reactors.
In the meantime, ban fossil fuels, nuclear and the cheap, reliable energy they produce.
We won’t need them …. then!
You don’t need warp drive to get out to the asteroid belt. Impulse drives would be sufficient.
There are already far too many impulsive drivers, thank you.
It really doesn’t matter how much lithium you have, if there is no electricity.
Blackouts possible as California power grid declares emergency as usage, conservation climb (msn.com)
what a surprise
any numpty could work out that copper is a major problem for an EV world
25Kg in an Electric car <5kg in an ICE car
then you need the generators, transmission lines recharging stations etc
Finally electrical components life is only about 10 years – look at your fan aircon etc – they all only last about 10 years
So I reiterate what a surprise
finally look at california – dont charge your EVs no power here
or the UK – I cant afford the power to charge my EV here
I hope we awake from our dream world while we still can make it back
There is always a zig zag pattern of supply in meeting long-run price and demand expectations, especially in the case of lack of coordinated supply response. But this time the scale of demand increase on an ill-conceived agenda politics timeline will create continuous shortage and price escalation. That will create a lot of losers including the middle classes of developed countries and “have not” nations demanding impact payments through the UN much like Pakistan is doing today with flood payments and debt relief soon to follow.
At least they will have reasonably priced food and electricity to get along. /sarc
And to think that had not a few crook scientists and Al Gore not come along we would be doing very well thank you. There is a lot of coal so electrification of the railways should have een a priority for places like Australia. There is no need for cross country road haulage, it could all be on rail. Why do business people have to fly anywhere just for a conference when Zoom and similar are available? Hybrid cars are far better than pure electric so why electric only? The bottom line is that we could reduce oil consumption with a few reasonable steps. A concerted effort to disprove the CO2 hypothesis would do away with the need to cut emissions and all the net zero rubbish. There is absolutely no need for 3 million windmills and acres of solar. Maybe there needs to be a cost benefit analysis of Net Zero versus just making power generation more efficient. We could then keep all those mineral resources for the future.