Why a Dud Hurricane Season … So Far? Join us LIVE on YouTube at noon CT today.

The Heartland Institute

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an active hurricane season earlier this year. Up until now, this hasn’t been the case, but there’s still time for this to change. Stanley Goldenberg is on NOAA’s team that produces seasonal hurricane outlooks. He joins the program to discuss why this hurricane season was predicted to be active, what we should expect moving forwards, and how these predictions are made.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an active hurricane season earlier this year. Up until now, this hasn’t been the case, but there’s still time for this to change. Stanley Goldenberg is on NOAA’s team that produces seasonal hurricane outlooks.

He joins the program to discuss why this hurricane season was predicted to be active, what we should expect moving forwards, and how these predictions are made.

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September 2, 2022 10:04 am

Proof of climate change1

Scissor
September 2, 2022 10:33 am

“So far” is a very important qualifier. Keeping fingers crossed hoping that it doesn’t change.

Smart Rock
September 2, 2022 11:09 am

NOAA has just announced that TS Danielle is now a hurricane. It’s out in the mid-Atlantic and they are predicting it will move northeast and miss the Azores.

So “so far” it’s still a dud season.

Ruleo
Reply to  Smart Rock
September 2, 2022 1:43 pm

They announced as such when the “no hurricanes yet” meme went viral.

Call me a skeptic
Reply to  Smart Rock
September 3, 2022 5:48 am

As of 5 am September 3 ,west coast time, Danielle is listed as a TS by the National Hurricane Center. They do however expect it to reach hurricane status. That’s 4 nothing TS’s barely reaching 40 mph and a potential Cat 1 hurricane. Must be
global cooling er climate change in action. Hurricane season hits it’s peak in 7 days. With no additional disturbances on the horizon for the next 5 days, this has to be the weakest hurricane season ever. Too bad there is no caning involved for terrible over exaggerated predictions.

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  Call me a skeptic
September 6, 2022 1:14 pm

Actually, there is a fifth named tropical storm currently out in the Atlantic, named “Earl”.

Mark D
Reply to  Smart Rock
September 3, 2022 3:10 pm

Fish storm.

Tom Packer
September 2, 2022 11:24 am

The long-term trend from the State Climate Office of North Carolina shows hurricanes affecting North Carolina decreasing in number over the past several decades: https://bit.ly/3y6KhH5 Other figures demonstrate their decreasing intensity as well.

Tom Schaefer
September 2, 2022 11:49 am

I try to assume the best about people, but would someone be willing to comment on why the issues raised at GeoengineeringWatch organization aren’t discussed here?
1) Unexplained deficit in ocean evaporation
2) Decimated plankton populations
3) De-correlated massive droughts that are statistically impossible coincident
4) Poison soil

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Schaefer
Joe Gordon
Reply to  Tom Schaefer
September 2, 2022 12:46 pm

Some of this has – the media’s breathless parroting of press releases from the climageddon folks claiming every incidence of extreme weather is both unprecedented and the result of CO2 and methane increases.

At least once a week, there’s an article here referencing the wealth of evidence that extreme weather events are not on the increase and deaths from weather events are declining.

But… if the NOAA wants to be taken seriously and any of this is the reason why we’re having an unusually low-intensity hurricane season, perhaps the NOAA should have made a better prediction.

It’s always “it’s so much worse than we thought” any time anything happens. Yet whenever a climageddon prediction is made (like the poles will be ice-free by 2005), it fails to materialize.

Where’s the emergency? Why are we sacrificing energy security to the gods of climate, when they clearly don’t exist?

whatlanguageisthis
Reply to  Joe Gordon
September 2, 2022 2:50 pm

The trend seems to be

  1. It is worse than we thought
  2. Our predictions were wrong, proving CAGW is worse than we thought
  3. We don’t know why we wrong, but it proves us right
  4. Send more money to research the issue before it gets even worse
  5. OMG, it is worse than we thought!
  6. Pass a law! Do something! How dare you do nothing!
  7. Return to 1
Gordon A. Dressler
September 2, 2022 12:00 pm

Climate (as opposed to weather) predictions:  GIGO.

Dusty
September 2, 2022 12:38 pm

NOAA predicted an “above normal” hurricane season and they stuck with that with a news bullet on their Atlantic Hurricane page up until 1 September.

Not Chicken Little
Reply to  Dusty
September 2, 2022 12:54 pm

Don’t worry, I’ve noticed that by the end of each hurricane season, they have “adjusted” their predictions and they always turn out 100% accurate!

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Dusty
September 2, 2022 6:07 pm

When was the last time NOAA predicted a “below nomal” hurricane season?

I can’t remember the last time.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Abbott
TheHeaterGuy
September 2, 2022 1:00 pm

Good discussion today. There was a mention about looking back at pre-satellite, and pre-reconnaissance eras and trying to come up with accurate hurricane counts to compare to the present. Has anyone every looked at it in reverse? Take todays storm information, and weed out the storms that we would have been able to detect in the pre-satellite and/or pre-reconnaissance eras? It might make a much “better” long term record to look at.

Cam_S
September 2, 2022 2:14 pm

Just when you thought you had read it all…
– – – – – – – –

There have been no named hurricanes so far this summer. Here’s why
Having no hurricane powerful enough to get a name this late in August is rare
Climate change may be a factor, weather experts say

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/hurricanes-weather-no-named-hurricanes-yet-august-september-nasa-sahara-winds-1.6567049

Joe Gordon
Reply to  Cam_S
September 2, 2022 2:59 pm

If the people quoting these “experts” had any integrity, their speculation might lead to a debate whether even more fossil fuel burning might be of benefit to the world.

Sadly, they’re so entrenched they’ve turned into the type of Vegas gambler who reads all sorts of nonsense into every turn of the card and every spin of the wheel, then blames “bad luck” when the inevitable bankruptcy results.

Cam_S
Reply to  Joe Gordon
September 2, 2022 7:12 pm

The people quoting the experts are the CBC, hardcore supporters of the Trudeau government. The CBC is the Canadian version of The Guardian.

Call me a skeptic
Reply to  Cam_S
September 3, 2022 6:03 am

They shouldn’t be allowed to have it both ways. More hurricanes and greater intensity, global warming, less hurricanes with less intensity, global warming. Hmmm, no wonder they changed the name global warming to climate change. Apparently we are all going to die really soon from excess heat or cold or drought or floods. All due to that evil CO2 molecule.

Pflashgordon
September 2, 2022 2:18 pm

An excellent and informative far-ranging and free-flowing discussion. It also highlights the difference between good, unbiased scientists attempting to understand and convey information, versus those both inside and outside of science who could never have had such an open, honest discussion.

I am sorry to say, but anyone from the media climate change cabal or among the vociferous “climate science alarmists” (need we name them again?) would have never allowed such a conversation. To the extent that anyone of those even notice this streaming event, I expect that this would be declared mis- or dis-information and banned, and/or each participant would be the recipient of ad hominem attacks.

Tom in Florida
September 2, 2022 3:09 pm

I have been watching the Saharan dust most of the summer and it appears to be wide spread and continuous.  But I don’t know what history we have of this to compare to.
Today:
https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_atl.html

Frank S.
September 2, 2022 6:21 pm

The Earth’s spinning faster, so the hurricanes are “confused”.

Call me a skeptic
Reply to  Frank S.
September 3, 2022 6:41 am

Poseidon and King Neptune are on an extended vacation in the Bahamas and don”t want to be disturbed.

decnine
September 3, 2022 2:01 am

This summer, hot air from the Sahara advected North to Europe instead of going West to make hurricanes over the Atlantic. The European heat wave ended about 2 weeks ago.

rah
September 4, 2022 1:40 am

8 days ago there was no tropical storms anywhere on earth. Just disturbances.

Now, in the Atlantic we have Danielle which is once again minimal hurricane out in the middle of nowhere and Earl which is a strengthening TS and which continues to move WNW at 10 mph and is bringing heavy weather to Puerto Rico despite the NHC continually forecasting it to recurve to the north before now.

Earl bears watching. The NHC track is predicated on the trough off the east coast of the US sucking the storm north but Earl is already further west than their track projected and so far keeps moving WNW at a leisurely 10 mph without a hint of changing course as of yet and is projected to intensify.

The Gulf is by no means out of the woods yet and there is a potential for close in development over the next couple weeks.

Now we have a Typhoon in the Pacific moving up towards Korea, though it could “thread the needle” between Korea and Japan moving over the inland sea.

In the South Eastern Pacific we have a TS off the coast of S. California. And an Invest down off Central America that Joe Bastardi says is going to develop and bring drenching and cooling rains to S. California about this time next week.

So over all things are firing up as the heart of the season approaches despite the MJO being in a less than favorable phase for TS development.

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  rah
September 6, 2022 1:20 pm

“. . . and bring drenching and cooling rains to S. California about this time next week.”

What??? . . . never heard of such tomfoolery.  Impossible . . . because climate change™.

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