Tokyo Midsummer Hasn’t Warmed in Decades. And: The Missing Hurricanes”

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin 

Charts by Kirye

Continuously increasing CO2 emissions into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels is supposed to be causing warming all over the globe right now, so we should be seeing it in most of the trends.

But often we don’t. The globe, in fact, has cooled somewhat since the El Nino of 2015/16. The media refuse to report that.

One example of no warming is the midsummer mean for Tokyo and its rural Hachijojima island in the Pacific.


Looking at the July mean temperature trend for Tokyo itself, using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and not the adjusted datasets from NASA, we have the following:

You can check the data yourself. The source is here.

As we can see, July mean temperature in Tokyo has been declining moderately for almost 3 decades.

A century of no warming: Hachijojima

Also for Hachijojima, which belongs to Tokyo and is located in the middle of the ocean 287 kilometers south of Tokyo, we plot the mean July temperature going back almost a century, i.e. long before CO2 emissions by industry began in earnest:

Source: JMA.

Lo and behold: July mean temperature at this rural island has in fact dipped slightly over the past 95 years. Check it out yourself if you don’t believe it. Above is the link to JMA’s official data, and not the altered rubbish from the U.S. sources.

Very slow start for 2022 hurricane season

On another note, the Atlantic hurricane season is off to a very slow start. According to the climate crazies though, we were supposed to be getting battered by tropical storms by now, and like never before in history. But here too, nothing unusual is going on.

The Washington Post has to report that it’s been slow, writing: “Forecasters said the broad weather patterns governing the oceans and atmosphere would come together to boost activity; experts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University predicted activity above to well above average.” But have to admit, “The only thing that seems to be missing from a busy Atlantic hurricane season? The hurricanes.”

Friday we’ll look at typhoons in the Pacific, something the WaPo doesn’t like reporting on.

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Tom Halla
August 4, 2022 6:12 am

GISS will probably claim the Japanese cannot read thermometers correctly, or something.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Tom Halla
August 4, 2022 2:09 pm

Yes, they are racist

August 4, 2022 6:22 am

Reading the runes the way you want…

The point is that historical anecdotes about the past climate, such as the claim that Greenland used to be green… have to be treated with caution.

But any ‘lived experience’ today has to be taken as gospel truth.

“Climate change affects every person on the planet but studies have found it affects women more. “

Now, hands up…. who doesn’t trust the BBC? I thought so.

It’s a no-brainer, you make landfall and it’s on an ice sheet so you call it Greenland. How they grew Barley etc is anybody’s guess.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  fretslider
August 4, 2022 6:55 am

The point is that historical anecdotes about the past climate, such as the claim that Greenland used to be green… have to be treated with caution.

Those sneaky Big Oil funded deniers have also been planting farms and tree stumps under the retreating ice to fool people into thinking that the ice hasn’t been there for thousands of years!

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
August 4, 2022 7:17 am

“…planting farms and tree stumps under the retreating ice to fool people”

It gets worse…

The presence of the barracks on Scorluzzo’s summit was known for some time, but it was only in 2015, when the ice that had sealed it off for almost 100 years melted completely, that researchers were able to enter. The shelter had been hastily locked up when the war ended in November 1918″

So it froze over after 1918….

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  fretslider
August 4, 2022 8:43 am

fretslider. That Greenland link says the MWP was not a global event. There’s a page on Google Maps that suggests otherwise. Click on the pins for a summary of the results and methods.

Google Maps Papers Covering MWP

Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 4, 2022 9:04 am

It’s the Guardian, Ben.

It’s their default position

Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 4, 2022 9:37 am

I have stood on permanently frozen ground and looked at a nearby hillside that had stone wall pasture fences.(Gronedal, Greenland, in1977. Either the Scandinavian farmers knew how to grow crops in frozen ground, or it was a lot warmer1,000 years ago.(contrary to the Hockey Stick “science”)

August 4, 2022 6:39 am

I would suggest Tokyo leaders invest in asphalt parking lots like America to save themselves from declining temps.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  ResourceGuy
August 4, 2022 11:08 am
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 4, 2022 12:33 pm
August 4, 2022 6:42 am

Now let’s compare the parking space requirements for commercial building permits in American cities vs. Japan. The term “good planning” has been used recklessly in the U.S. for decades and it got worse with COVID19 and the further decline in on-site store shopping patterns.

Sweet Old Bob
August 4, 2022 6:51 am

If I understand Big Joe B. and Weatherbell correctly ,Atlantic hurricane activity is going to ramp up.
Soon .

Reply to  Sweet Old Bob
August 4, 2022 8:35 am

Yep the start of hurricane season.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Sweet Old Bob
August 4, 2022 11:13 am

Any day now! However, I’d venture to guess that the longer the season goes without active hurricanes, the lower the probability that the forecast will be fulfilled.

Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 4, 2022 4:30 pm

If it goes too long, Clyde, there will have to be 2 or 3 hurricanes per day to catch up.

Of course, they would have to be very brief hurricanes to fit them all in. I guess the plan is to make the numbers through quantity instead of quality.

Just don’t belch next month or it will likely be a named hurricane.

Zig Zag Wanderer
August 4, 2022 6:52 am

“The only thing that seems to be missing from a busy Atlantic hurricane season? The hurricanes.”

We’ve had the same in Oz these last couple of years. The BoM have predicted heavy cyclone seasons, and we get very light ones. With another La Niña, I’m expecting a repeat this year.

I suspect that the heavier populated south actually believes that there are an unusually high number of cyclones, while us up north have a pretty calm time of it.

Old Man Winter
August 4, 2022 7:00 am

‘Heat Island’ Tokyo Is in Global Warming’s Vanguard
”Over the last century, Tokyo temperatures have increased five times as fast as global warming”

Add Tokyo to Bonzena’s list of where “the rest of the world is warming faster than the rest of the world”.

Reply to  Old Man Winter
August 4, 2022 7:20 am

“Yeah… Can we have everything louder than everything else”? Ah!

Deep Purple, Made In Japan, 1972

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  fretslider
August 4, 2022 10:54 am

And motorhead….

Joe Born
August 4, 2022 7:00 am

I might also mention that, as a measure of how much observed warming elsewhere affects humans, the average daily high is good to know. Here are some values for Bloomington, Indiana, for example.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Joe Born
August 4, 2022 9:09 am

Joe, except for a couple of days at 30-31C, July in Eastern Ontario has averaged about 25C with low humidity. This is unusual. Forecasts have been a couple of degrees too warm and weather folk have been quiet about their favorite subject.

Tom Abbott
August 4, 2022 7:22 am

Hachijojima’s temperauture profile shows the Early Twentieth Century warming. Just like about every unmodified, written, regional temperature record from around the world.

Hachijojima’s temperauture profile is the temperature profile of the Earth, with it being just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century as it is today, just like all the other unmodified charts show..

That being the case, CO2 is a minor player in determining the Earth’s temperatures. It’s no warmer now, with lots of CO2 in the atmosphere, than it was in the past with much less CO2 in the atmosphere. The amount of CO2 in the air has made no difference.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 4, 2022 9:58 am

Climate boffins are totally unaware that a model of the atmosphere cannot simply be the sum of all the factors ceteris paribus (cp) (“The Physics”). “The Chemistry” needs pride of place here. When you have a change in one or more interacting components in a system, the other components don’t stay the same as per cp. They change in such a way as to resist the the perturbing change – Le Châtelier’s Principle (LCP).

A simple example is if you heat the atmosphere, being unconfined, its volume changes thereby reducing the temperature change expected. This is only one of the many, many changes that whittle down the induced heating. e.g. heating causes increased evaporation which cools the sea or moist land surfaces and the moisture laden air rises up quickly to elevations where heat is lost to space.

Even if they had CO2’s ghg warming effect correct, the chemistry of photosynthesis in the Great Greening is an endothermic reaction (a cooling one). How much cooling? Well the heat sequestered is somewhat more than what you would get if you burned the trees and other plants formed to release this heat. Hurricanes cool, melting ice, cools … I would estimate the warming with “The Physics” is more than halved by action of LCP. If we held our nose and granted that “The Physics” of the avg of models was essentially correct, but the estimated anomaly increase by 2006 was 3 x the actual measured warming, then an LCP coefficient of 0.33 should to multiply the modelled T-anomaly would be appropriate.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Gary Pearse
August 5, 2022 6:17 am

What I see are “absolute” temperatures shown to the resolution of measurement, i.e., one tenth of a degree.

What would happen if someone went back and found monthly mean temperature averages to 3 decimal places, a baseline to 3 decimal places, and anomalies to 3 decimal places?

Tom Abbott
August 4, 2022 7:28 am

Alarmists have been very quiet about this hurricane season.

Maybe all that dust coming out of Africa suppressed the hurricanes.

The poor alarmists have nothing to freak out over.

Rick C
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 4, 2022 10:35 am

Sadly, it won’t matter if even 1 Cat. 4 or 5 hits the US before November. That will be all the alarmists and MSM need to crank up the CAGW propaganda machine to 11.

Weather King
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 4, 2022 3:56 pm

You need to watch out for the trap. The height of the Atlantic hurricane season is not until mid-September. Because of the LaNinia, the hurricane season is expected to be active because of the changes in the amount of sheer affecting hurricane development. Another factor not well known is the Madden-Julian oscillation. It is forecasted to be in a more favorable configuration in 10-15 days at which time the hurricane season could take off. As a side note, check the ACE figure (accumulated cyclonic energy) for the eastern Pacific, way below normal. Alco a feature of a LaNinia.

August 4, 2022 7:32 am

I’d like to see an analysis to show what percentage of the supposed trend in global temperature rise is from a) data/model adjustments, b) UHI, and c) actual temperature increase. I suspect at this point it’s probably 70%/20%/10%

August 4, 2022 9:10 am

NoNoNo. You people have it all wrong. It’s not that temperatures are rising anywhere in particular, it’s that Global Average Temperature Anomalies that are rising and predictions of Global Average Temperature Anomalies that are rising. These don’t exist naturally, only in statistical constructs of poorly sampled and adjusted records of past temperatures.

That’s what makes a 0.013 deg C yearly rise so scary. Stop confusing the two, they are not the same.

Reply to  Doonman
August 4, 2022 6:51 pm

Yep. The AVERAGE temperatures in LA NV are often higher on days when the high temperature is up to 6 degrees cooler due to the UHI effect of much higher low temperatures.

August 4, 2022 9:10 am

Yikes we’ve unearthed a CO2 hole over Tokyo! Do they need help dealing with excessive nitrogen now?

Reply to  observa
August 4, 2022 5:08 pm

Nahhh. They have the nitrogen under control. They quit farming in Tokyo. All those miles and miles of wheat fields? Gone.

August 4, 2022 6:38 pm

Regarding Hachijo Jima, it is located smack dab in the middle of the main Kuroshio Current. If any one place in the world should show a strong warming trend, assuming there is a significant AGW in proccess, it should be Hachijo Jima.

August 6, 2022 3:36 am

There is ‘Climate Change’ and there is ‘Climate Science’.

Under ‘Climate Change’ we live in a period of unstable climate that is constantly changing as estimated from running averages of a 30 year period. Over longer periods the climate is up and down in terms of temperature and its associated variables. We all know about the multi-thousand year cycles associated with glaciation and with warm periods between glacial cycles. We live in one of those warm periods with ups (Minoan, Roman, Medieval, Modern) and downs (most recently the Little Ice Age). Climate is not stable, it is constantly changing.

Then there is ‘Climate Science’ – a politically motivated scam and cult that has nothing to do with changing climate and everything to do with accruing political power and money.

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