Section of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet ice core sample with a dark ash layer. Credit: Image courtesy Heidi Roop.

Ancient Ice Reveals Scores of Gigantic Volcanic Eruptions

Clim. Past, 18, 485–506, 2022

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022

© Author(s) 2022.

This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article

Magnitude, frequency and climate forcing of global volcanism during the last glacial period as seen in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores (60–9 ka)

Abstract

Large volcanic eruptions occurring in the last glacial period can be detected by their accompanying sulfuric acid deposition in continuous ice cores. Here we employ continuous sulfate and sulfur records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, the frequency and the climatic forcing of large volcanic eruptions that occurred during the second half of the last glacial period and the early Holocene, 60–9 kyr before 2000 CE (b2k). Over most of the investigated interval the ice cores are synchronized, making it possible to distinguish large eruptions with a global sulfate distribution from eruptions detectable in one hemisphere only. Due to limited data resolution and large variability in the sulfate background signal, particularly in the Greenland glacial climate, we only list Greenland sulfate depositions larger than 20 kg km−2 and Antarctic sulfate depositions larger than 10 kg km−2. With those restrictions, we identify 1113 volcanic eruptions in Greenland and 737 eruptions in Antarctica within the 51 kyr period – for which the sulfate deposition of 85 eruptions is found at both poles (bipolar eruptions). Based on the ratio of Greenland and Antarctic sulfate deposition, we estimate the latitudinal band of the bipolar eruptions and assess their approximate climatic forcing based on established methods. A total of 25 of the identified bipolar eruptions are larger than any volcanic eruption occurring in the last 2500 years, and 69 eruptions are estimated to have larger sulfur emission strengths than the Tambora, Indonesia, eruption (1815 CE). Throughout the investigated period, the frequency of volcanic eruptions is rather constant and comparable to that of recent times. During the deglacial period (16–9 ka b2k), however, there is a notable increase in the frequency of volcanic events recorded in Greenland and an obvious increase in the fraction of very large eruptions. For Antarctica, the deglacial period cannot be distinguished from other periods. This confirms the suggestion that the isostatic unloading of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets may be related to the enhanced NH volcanic activity. Our ice-core-based volcanic sulfate records provide the atmospheric sulfate burden and estimates of climate forcing for further research on climate impact and understanding the mechanism of the Earth system.How to cite. Lin, J., Svensson, A., Hvidberg, C. S., Lohmann, J., Kristiansen, S., Dahl-Jensen, D., Steffensen, J. P., Rasmussen, S. O., Cook, E., Kjær, H. A., Vinther, B. M., Fischer, H., Stocker, T., Sigl, M., Bigler, M., Severi, M., Traversi, R., and Mulvaney, R.: Magnitude, frequency and climate forcing of global volcanism during the last glacial period as seen in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores (60–9 ka), Clim. Past, 18, 485–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022, 2022.1 Introduction

The dispersal of gas, aerosols and ash particles by volcanic eruptions plays a major role in the climate system (Gao et al., 2007; Robock, 2000). Large volcanic eruptions injecting sulfuric gases into the stratosphere and forming sulfate aerosols have a global or hemispheric cooling effect of several degrees lasting for several years after the eruption (Sigl et al., 2015; Sinnl et al., 2021).

Estimations of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and of the timing and frequency of large volcanic eruptions are essential for the ability to understand and model past and future global climate conditions (Timmreck et al., 2016). For the last 1200 to 2500 years, the ice-core-based volcanic forcing records derived from Greenland and Antarctica (Crowley and Unterman, 2013; Gao et al., 2008; Toohey and Sigl, 2017) provide an essential forcing record for climate model simulations (Jungclaus et al., 2017), supporting detection and attribution studies (Schurer et al., 2014), including those applied in the IPCC. However, so far the global ice-core-based volcanic record of the last glacial period has been poorly documented.

1.1 Ice-core records of volcanic sulfate deposition

Several studies have reconstructed the volcanic sulfate deposition for part or all of the Holocene in Greenland (Cole-Dai et al., 2009; Gao et al., 2008; Sigl et al., 2013) or in Antarctica (Kurbatov et al., 2006; Castellano et al., 2004; Plummer et al., 2012; Nardin et al., 2020; Cole-Dai et al., 2021). Sigl et al. (2015) applied accurately dated ice cores synchronized between the two hemispheres to reconstruct global volcanism over the last 2500 years. This so-called bipolar synchronization allows distinguishing large global eruptions from those of hemispheric or more regional impact. During the last 2500 years, they identified 50 global (bipolar) volcanic eruptions, 5 of which had a sulfur emission strength larger than or similar to the Tambora eruption occurring in Indonesia in 1815 CE. Prior to the last glacial maximum no bipolar volcanic sulfate deposition record is currently available from ice cores.

One conclusion drawn from historical eruptions is that there is a significant variability of the same volcanic event in the sulfate deposition records derived from different ice cores on both a regional and a local scale (Sigl et al., 2014; Gao et al., 2007). Some of this regional variability can be explained by the difference in sulfate deposition fluxes at different locations. For example, in Antarctica where geographical distances are large, the sulfate deposition at a specific site will be strongly dependent on factors such as the location of the eruption, governing wind patterns and seasonality. Another reason for the lateral sulfate deposition variability is the amount and patchiness of snowfall, which may locally enhance the sulfate deposition for high snowfall areas compared to low snowfall areas for a volcanic event. Moreover, there may be more absent sulfate deposition events caused by post-depositional processes on the snow surface, such as wind erosion (Gautier et al., 2016). The spatial variability of sulfate deposition in Antarctica was studied at 19 sites covering the past 2000 years by Sigl et al. (2014), and here both accumulation and post-deposition effects were found to be important factors. In particular, on the East Antarctic Plateau where snow accumulation is very low, the sulfate deposition is lower than at more coastal and higher-accumulation sites in Antarctica. The snow accumulation effect is also observed in Greenland (Gao et al., 2007), although the effect is much less pronounced here because the accumulation rates are less variable in central Greenland than in different parts of Antarctica. In order to reduce the accumulation bias, Gao et al. (2008) selected five large low-latitude volcanic events from 54 Arctic and Antarctic ice cores and calculated the mean ratio of deposition in individual ice cores; they then applied the deposition ratio between different cores to correct the sulfate deposition for all events in all cores to obtain the Arctic and Antarctic mean sulfate depositions. In general, it is clear that more robust volcanic deposition patterns can be obtained when larger sets of ice cores are included, and preferably ice cores from high-accumulation sites should be applied (Gao et al., 2007; Sigl et al., 2014).

One complication related to the derivation of volcanic sulfate deposition in ice cores is the thinning of the ice layers with increasing depth and age. Due to glacier flow, the annual layers and thus the volcano-derived sulfate deposition become thinned with depth, an effect that is most pronounced at high-accumulation sites and close to bedrock. In central Greenland, typical thinning rates of annual layers in the 60–10 ka range are 50 %–90 % depending on age and local flow conditions (Johnsen et al., 2001). To calculate the sulfate deposition of a specific eruption from a measured ice concentration a correction for the thinning at the corresponding depth is needed to obtain the past accumulation rate at the time of snowfall. Thinning functions are obtained from ice-flow modeling, and thus there is a site-specific dependency on accurate flow modeling associated with the sulfate deposition determination.

1.2 Studies of the frequency of volcanic eruptions

The volcanic sulfate record of the Greenland GISP2 ice core has been investigated by Zielinski et al. (1997), who found that there was increased volcanic activity during the deglacial period (22–8 ka b2k) compared to the average activity of the last glacial cycle. This is interpreted as being related to the tectonic isostatic response to the melting of the large ice sheets during that period. Based on the global volcanic databases (Siebert and Simkin, 2002; Bryson et al., 2006), Huybers and Langmuir (2009) found that volcanism increased 2 to 6 times during the deglacial period of 12–7 ka b2k compared to the average level of eruptions during the 40–0 ka b2k interval.

In Antarctica, Castellano et al. (2004) determined the frequency of volcanic eruptions over the last 45 kyr based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core. They found a rather constant level of volcanic activity throughout that period except for the most recent millennia, when the activity shows an increase. Kurbatov et al. (2006) detected volcanic signals during the last 12 kyr in the Siple Dome A ice core from West Antarctica. They found that the number of volcanic sulfate signals is decreasing with age, possibly related to the relatively low sampling resolution in the deeper part of that core. Recently, Cole-Dai et al. (2021) used the high-accumulation WAIS Divide ice core to determine a fairly constant Holocene eruption frequency with larger-than-Tambora (1815 CE) events occurring approximately once per millennium. Note, however, that all these reconstructions differ in their volcanic signal detection method, which may lead to different trends in peak frequencies.

1.3 Volcanic events identified in ice cores with tephra and sulfate peak synchronization

The ice-core volcanic source identification is important as it helps to constrain the magnitude – interpreted here as sulfur emission strength rather than the mass of material erupted (Pyle, 2015) – and the climate forcing of the eruption. Furthermore, it allows for a more detailed comparison to modeling studies. In historical times, the volcanic origin of an ice-core acidity spike may be corroborated by a precise dating of the ice core (Sigl et al., 2015). Further back in time, as the uncertainty of both the ice-core dating and the identification of the erupting volcanoes increases, the origin of a volcanic ice-core layer can only be determined if it is associated with a volcanic ash (tephra) deposition in the ice (Gronvold et al., 1995). However, tephra layers do not always coincide with sulfate peaks (Davies et al., 2010), and most volcanic sulfate signals have no tephra associated with them.

In the last glacial period, many Greenland tephra deposits have been associated with Icelandic eruptions, while around a dozen of identified tephra layers originate in North America and eastern Asia (Abbott and Davies, 2012; Bourne et al., 2015; Davies et al., 2014). In Antarctica, tephra layers have been identified and associated with eruptions occurring within Antarctica and in the Southern Hemisphere (Narcisi et al., 2005, 2010, 2012). Recently, Mcconnell et al. (2017) identified tephra from the long-lasting and halogen-rich Antarctic Mount Takahe eruption that occurred around 17.80 ka. Tephra of the Oruanui eruption from the Taupo volcano in present-day New Zealand has been identified and dated to 25.32 ka before 1950 CE (BP) in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core (WDC) (Dunbar et al., 2017).

Volcanic eruptions generally do not deposit tephra in both Greenland and Antarctica, so the bipolar synchronization of sulfur spikes in the ice cores is dependent on an alternative matching technique. Svensson et al. (2020) applied annual layer counting in both Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to match patterns of volcanic eruptions leading to the identification of some 80 bipolar eruptions in the 60–12 ka interval. For the Holocene, a bipolar synchronization of volcanic eruptions was released with the AICC2012 timescale (Veres et al., 2013). Using sulfur isotopes, it has recently become possible to test if sulfate has indeed reached the stratosphere, which is a prerequisite for being globally distributed, as the sulfate undergoes characteristic isotope fractionation in the stratosphere (Burke et al., 2019; Gautier et al., 2018; Crick et al., 2021; Baroni et al., 2008), but these analyses are still scarce for the last glacial period.

1.4 Extending the ice-core volcanic record into the last glacial period

Here we extend the ice-core record of sulfate deposition in Greenland and Antarctica by employing sulfate records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores in the interval 60–9 ka (in one core we use elemental sulfur measurements, but for the sake of brevity we will refer to sulfate records). We investigate the sulfur emission strengths (i.e., defining the climate impact potential) and the frequency of volcanic eruptions detected in either Greenland or Antarctica. For eruptions identified in both hemispheres, we estimate the climate forcing using modern analogs and determine the occurrence of very large eruptions. Unless otherwise stated, all ages provided in this work are relative to the year 2000 CE.

Read the full paper here.

And here is the press release.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN – FACULTY OF SCIENCE

Ice cores drilled in Antarctica and Greenland have revealed gigantic volcanic eruptions during the last ice age. Sixty-nine of these were larger than any eruption in modern history. According to the University of Copenhagen physicists behind the research, these eruptions can teach us about our planet’s sensitivity to climate change.

For many people, the mention of a volcanic eruption conjures up doomsday scenarios that include deafening explosions, dark ash billowing into the stratosphere and gloopy lava burying everything in its path as panicked humans run for their lives. While such an eruption could theoretically happen tomorrow, we have had to make do with disaster films and books when it comes to truly massive volcanic eruptions in the modern era.

“We haven’t experienced any of history’s largest volcanic eruptions. We can see that now. Eyjafjellajökull, which paralysed European air traffic in 2010, pales in comparison to the eruptions we identified further back in time. Many of these were larger than any eruption over the last 2,500 years,” says Associate Professor Anders Svensson of the University of Copenhagen’s Niels Bohr Institute.

By comparing ice cores drilled in Antarctica and Greenland, he and his fellow researchers managed to estimate the quantity and intensity of volcanic eruptions over the last 60,000 years. Estimates of volcanic eruptions more than 2,500 years ago have been associated with great uncertainty and a lack of precision, until now.

Sixty-nine eruptions larger than Mount Tambora

Eighty-five of the volcanic eruptions identified by the researchers were large global eruptions. Sixty-nine of these are estimated to be larger than the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia – the largest volcanic eruption in recorded human history. So much sulfuric acid was ejected into the stratosphere by the Tambora eruption that it blocked sunlight and caused global cooling in the years that followed. The eruption also caused tsunamis, drought, famine and at least 80,000 deaths.

“To reconstruct ancient volcanic eruptions, ice cores offer a few advantages over other methods. Whenever a really large eruption occurs, sulfuric acid is ejected into the upper atmosphere, which is then distributed globally – including onto Greenland and Antarctica. We can estimate the size of an eruption by looking at the amount of sulfuric acid that has fallen,” explains Anders Svensson.

In a previous study, the researchers managed to synchronize ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland – i.e., to date the respective core layers on the same time scale. By doing so, they were able to compare sulphur residues in ice and deduce when sulfuric acid spread to both poles after globally significant eruptions.

When will it happen again?

“The new 60,000-year timeline of volcanic eruptions supplies us with better statistics than ever before. Now we can see that many more of these great eruptions occurred during the prehistoric Ice Age than in modern times. Because large eruptions are relatively rare, a long timeline is needed to know when they occur. That is what we now have,” says Anders Svensson.

One may be left wondering when the next of these massive eruptions will occur. But Svensson isn’t ready to make any concrete predictions:

“Three eruptions of the largest known category occurred during the entire period we studied, so-called VEI-8 eruptions (see fact box). So, we can expect more at some point, but we just don’t know if that will be in a hundred or a few thousand years. Tambora sized eruptions appears to erupt once or twice every thousand years, so the wait for that may be shorter.”

How was climate affected?

When powerful enough, volcanic eruptions can affect global climate, where there is typically a 5-10- year period of cooling. As such, there is great interest in mapping the major eruptions of the past – as they can help us look into the future.

“Ice cores contain information about temperatures before and after the eruptions, which allows us to calculate the effect on climate. As large eruptions tell us a lot about how sensitive our planet is to changes in the climate system, they can be useful for climate predictions,” explains Anders Svensson.

Determining Earth’s climate sensitivity is an Achilles heel of current climate models. Svensson concludes:

“The current IPCC models do not have a firm grasp of climate sensitivity – i.e., what the effect of a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere will be. Vulcanism can supply us with answers as to how much temperature changes when Earths atmospheric radiation budget changes, whether due to CO2 or a blanket of sulphur particles. So, when we have estimated the effects of large volcanic eruptions on climate, we will be able to use the result to improve climate models.”


JOURNAL

Climate of the Past

DOI

10.5194/cp-18-485-2022 

ARTICLE TITLE

Magnitude, frequency and climate forcing of global volcanism during the last glacial period as seen in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores (60–9 ka)

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

16-Mar-2022

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Mike
March 16, 2022 6:27 pm

”The dispersal of gas, aerosols and ash particles by volcanic eruptions plays a major role in the climate system…………have a global or hemispheric cooling effect of several degrees lasting for several years after the eruption”

Once again, WEATHER not climate. This must be why so many people think a flood or fire weather is climate. Because not even the ”scientists” know the difference.

Last edited 3 months ago by Mike
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Mike
March 16, 2022 6:55 pm

A lot of people think weather is climate because a lot of alarmists make these claims.

When one is perpetrating a scam, it helps to keep the rubes confused.

Tom Halla
March 16, 2022 6:27 pm

They do at least mention the problems with the cores,and correlating them to actual volcanic eruptions.

Ron Long
March 16, 2022 6:35 pm

It’s possible there were more volcanic eruptions from 60k to 9k years before year 2,000. Many of the direct subduction movement was starting to convert to oblique subduction and even transcurrent faulting (plates sliding against each other instead of subduction). However, the ability to age-and-strength volcanic eruptions over the whole earth from ice cores seems a little iffy. Here’s something not iffy: “gloopy”, meaning sticky or thick, my new word for the day, thanks.

Rud Istvan
March 16, 2022 7:20 pm

Maybe, maybe not.
in essay Blowing Smoke in eponymous same ebook, I analyzed all eruptions last couple of centuries. There are remarkable VEI ‘constants’ that say this new concern is just silly.
And even if not, there is NO AGW mitigation possible.By definition.

gbaikie
March 16, 2022 7:41 pm

Doesn’t more than 80% of global volcanic activity, occur in the deep ocean?

Burl Henry
Reply to  gbaikie
March 17, 2022 8:37 am

Gbalkie;

Only stratospheric VEI4, or larger eruptions affect average anomalous global temperatures.

Of these, 5%, or less, are deep ocean events.

March 16, 2022 8:03 pm

No mention of underwater volcanic activity. As all its sulphur dioxide is captured by the oceans, it cannot be monitored by ice-cores. Currently, at least, it’s some 3x greater than terrestrial activity. The sulphuric acid produced from the SO2 does react with coral reefs.

TallDave
Reply to  P Carson
March 17, 2022 8:24 am

probably not relevant to cooling

aussiecol
March 16, 2022 8:06 pm

So could there be a connection with large eruptions and ENSO? There does seem to be a correlation.

Burl Henry
Reply to  aussiecol
March 17, 2022 8:45 am

aussiecol:

“could there be a connection with large eruptions and ENSO?”

Yes, ENSO is totally driven by VEI4 and larger eruptions (or volcanic droughts of 3-4 years, or more).

HeckSpawn
March 16, 2022 8:14 pm

Wondering how the eruptions coincide with Heinrich and D-O events. I had hoped to see a chart of the eruptions.

Peta of Newark
March 16, 2022 8:20 pm

From the section 1.2 – Studies of the frequency…..

Quote 1: Huybers and Langmuir (2009) found that volcanism increased 2 to 6 times during the deglacial period of 12–7 ka b2k compared to the average level of eruptions during the 40–0 ka b2k interval.

Quote 2: This is interpreted as being related to the tectonic isostatic response to the melting of the large ice sheets during that period.

Epic modern climate science.
They have perfectly no explanation for what caused the warming (melting of the ice) that subsequently set off the volcanoes and thus very effectively get Cause & Effect the wrong way round.

How it went… (Warning: this involves Gaia in case you’re allergic to same)

‘Something’ set off the volcanoes.
Is that maybe how volcanoes work, can they trigger each in in a chain reaction sort of event?
Or maybe also did a huge Space Boulder come flying by or maybe a small one hit somewhere sensitive such as Yellowstone.
Or where the Siberia Traps are – or the Indian (Deccan) equivalent

No real matter but it was the volcanoes that melted the ice and got Earth out of the Ice Age.
The sulphur raining down would have worked as a de-icer but mainly the Tephra.
For 2 main reasons and a little speculative baby-reason

  • It would have lowered the albedo of the ice
  • The Tephra would have fertilised the plants growing on the unfrozen parts of Earth = storing up heat energy to warm up ‘desert nights’ and increasing rainfall

(Doncha love their crazy logic as well = how the sulphur changes the climate by being injected into the Stratosphere BUT – it still comes down dissolved in the rain.
Last time I looked, rain-clouds do not form or exist within the stratosphere. At some point they must surely shirley choke on all the cake they are having & eating)

The increased rainfall, along the low latitude margins of the ice, would have been loaded with sulphuric/sulphurous acids (the de-icers) loads of metallic salts (more de-icers) and of course dark coloured dust soot smoke etc etc
The ice didn’t stand a chance. It would have been rapidly chewed up to be replaced by plants (much much lower albedo than ice) that would have reinforced the ground being reclaimed captured by the de-icers and the Tephra

Minor possibility= The volcanoes and associated earthquakes would have de-stabilised ice & glaciers on hills and mountainsides – letting Gravity join into the De-icing Party.

Gaia got us out of the last Ice Age but ‘she’ needed wakening up by the volcanoes.
BUT BUT but, volcanoes are powered by radioactive isotopes..
Considering that any radio-isotopes inside Earth must be at least 5 Billion years old plus however many billions of years they spent floating and decaying inside an inter-stellar/galactic cloud – there can not be much left of them by now.
Even Thorium – how does its huuuuge half-life compare to 5, 6 or 7+ billion years

One might argue about a Real Tipping Point for life on Earth.
i.e. Volcanism and mountain-building is now at such a low level it cannot keep pace with inevitable inexorable soil erosion..

Why planet Mars is in the state it is.
Originally it would have had water and life but with no volcanism or plate tectonics, it died.

Is that why we are here?
To replicate what volcanoes did = plough-up, mine, dug, pulverise and disperse, in its most basic (haha because it is ‘basic’ or alkali) form; Rock
And CO2, also SOx
If we figure it out, we will need all those new nuclear power stations. Simply to further enhance our copying of volcanoes to ‘cook’ Limestone to get the CO2 back out of it.
If we successfully re-fertilise the Large Deserts, they are gonna need some insane amounts of CO2

We were given the brains to invent and build the machines (generically= Hymacs), some fuel to power them (diesel)
And the raw materials (e.g. Basalt) are lying around, to very great depth, all over the place.
so simple.
a big job maybe but inherently, very very simple

Last edited 3 months ago by Peta of Newark
wsbriggs
Reply to  Peta of Newark
March 17, 2022 5:06 am

When the term tectonic isostatic response (aka isostatic rebound) is thrown into the discussion, it implies that the ice was melting causing the rebound. I don’t quite see where they implied the volcanos were going off before, rather it read to me as if the rebound was occurring which prompted vulcanism. Once the melt has started, ash and stuff will possibly accelerate it.

Burl Henry
Reply to  Peta of Newark
March 17, 2022 8:55 am

Peta of Newark:

“it was the volcanoes that melted the ice”

You are mistaken. Sulfur dioxide aerosols injected into the stratosphere are reflective and COOL our planed by reducing the amount of sunshine reaching the Earth’s surface..

Warming occurs only after the aerosols have settled out, cleansing the air, and increasing insolation.

whiten
Reply to  Burl Henry
March 17, 2022 11:55 am

To the best knowledge up to date, including the substance of this particular study,
in relation to data and not hypothesis or/and guesses;
In consideration of climate, the connection of increased global volcanic activity is and stands with deglaciation and not with glaciation.

Oh well, maybe you talking about periods of few years long there, weather wise.

Of course, the school of glaciation due to aerolsols very much needed and required to aid the man made climate change.

Yes of course Peta is wrong, as the correlation does not mean causation,just like that.
And of course having volcanic activity correlating clearly at some point with deglaciation,it could mean that the origin of causality could be the same for both.
Definitely RF does not cause volcanic activity…neither does albedo… no matter how much one may try to have it that way, like this study seems at some point implying.

cheers

beng135
Reply to  Burl Henry
March 18, 2022 10:58 am

He might be thinking the ash from the volcanoes was deposited on the ice, reducing their albedo….

Meab
Reply to  Peta of Newark
March 18, 2022 8:45 am

Beclowned yourself once again, Peta. It wasn’t the volcanoes that melted the ice and got us out of the ice age, it was the regular, predictable changes in Earth’s orbital eccentricity, precession of Earth’s axis, and tilt. Milankovitch cycles. You must like playing a jester.

commieBob
March 16, 2022 8:27 pm

Vulcanism can supply us with answers as to how much temperature changes when Earths atmospheric radiation budget changes, whether due to CO2 or a blanket of sulphur particles. So, when we have estimated the effects of large volcanic eruptions on climate, we will be able to use the result to improve climate models.

Cloud cuckoo land … dreaming in technicolor … totally clueless … something like that.

The mechanisms are not remotely the same. Why would you think data from the one effect could be used to predict the results of the other effect? It’s like trying to predict a mouse’s behavior based on what a crocodile would do. It’s like noticing they use the same equipment and arguing that Al Jazeera is the same as Fox News.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  commieBob
March 16, 2022 10:33 pm

One has to wonder why they didn’t compare their eruption dates with temperatures as determined by the ice cores. If the sulphates show up, then the oxygen isotope analysis from the same samples should show cooling after those big eruptions. If it only shows cooling after 1/2 of them…..oops, it’s random….

bc bc
March 16, 2022 8:33 pm

…always learning and never able to come to the knowledge of the Truth…

stinkerp
March 17, 2022 12:04 am

Fascinating. The authors seem refreshingly candid about the shortcomings of their methods and problems with precision. At the end is this gem:

The current IPCC models do not have a firm grasp of climate sensitivity – i.e., what the effect of a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere will be

There’s something you don’t hear from climate zealots. Though I suppose if they were forced to admit it they would tell us it’s probably worse than the climate models predict; ignoring the wealth of observations that suggest the opposite.

Last edited 3 months ago by stinkerp
Crisp
March 17, 2022 3:18 am

All this from 6 ice cores. 6! Yeah, nah.

glenn holdcroft
March 17, 2022 3:54 am

Humans on Earth are like an insect on an elephant yet they say we can control the weather/climate by how much CO2 our emissions might cause .
Politicians and paid for scientists with uneducated populace just go with the flow of fear .
Primitive cultures worshipped various gods to save them , now the intellectuals have their own new religion .

John Larson
Reply to  glenn holdcroft
March 17, 2022 4:57 pm

It would seem so, but to me there seems to be more than just a going with the flow of fear on the part of “politicians and paid for scientists”. This new religion seems synthetic to me, and perpetrated by (some of) the well educated . . who would like very much to play God, so to speak. And, I suggest, they want us to see the world as in need of saving, from the ignorant public (AKA us ; )

Sara
March 17, 2022 5:19 am

I don’t understand why they shorted out at 60K years. The last cold period started well before that, says they could have gone back further. This kind of shortchanges what they are doing.

There are some massive volcanoes that are quiet at this time. Toba is only one, but you already know about it, no doubt. Then there’s a doozy in the Kamchatka peninsula over in western Siberia (wait – is it still Siberia, or did it change to “Russia” and nobody told me?), never mind the simple fact that you can find a good video on how the Cascades are quivering and Mt. St, Helens seems to be getting restless again. It’s telling that they ignored Hekla, which is erupting continuously, in favor of Ejafjalljokul, which is still sneezing but not much else.

Just saying that the last cold period started 67,000 years ago, which they seem to have missed.

There are plenty of active volcanoes that influence the weather, all over the planet. Their report seems kind of short-sighted. I’m a bit disappointed, that’s all.

Last edited 3 months ago by Sara
RevJay4
Reply to  Sara
March 17, 2022 5:48 am

Its not that the “scientists” missed the start of the last cold period, it just doesn’t fit their models. Or something. The need for many more samples to be taken and analyzed is what is missing.
I lived in the Pacific NW during the Mt. St. Helens thing. It was spectacularly scary. If the Cascade range goes off again, CA may find itself to be an island floating out to sea. lol.

Sara
Reply to  RevJay4
March 17, 2022 8:37 am

I think that’s why the “models” fail: they don’t include real stuff, so it’s speculation and assumptions. Thanks for the feedack.

Bill Rocks
March 17, 2022 6:04 am

I award extra credit for the fact that they are working on something that is real, the characteristics of sulfur-bearing compounds and volcanic ash in the ice cores.

A good beginning.

Bruce Cobb
March 17, 2022 6:19 am

They are engaging in straw-grasping. Space aliens might have affected climate, therefore, if space aliens can, so can man’s CO2. QED. Can’t beat Warmlogic.

March 17, 2022 7:11 am

It seems most volcanoes are underneath the oceans and seas. When they explode you do not see anything. The heat is transferred to the water and because of the depth all CO2 , sulphur and chlorine is immediately dissolved in the watrer.
I think that the only possible explanation for modern warming is extra volcanic action in the Arctic/
Who or what turned up the heat? | Bread on the water

Burl Henry
Reply to  HenryP
March 17, 2022 9:13 am

HenryP

No, the cause of the modern warming is the reduction in the amount of dimming Industrial SO2 aerosols in the atmosphere due to global “Clean Air Efforts”. Down from 136 Megatons in 1979, to 72 Megatons in 2019 (latest data available).

We have been “shooting ourselves in the foot” and net-zero efforts will only make things worse.

Reply to  Burl Henry
March 17, 2022 1:30 pm

Burl
No. How do you explain the results in table 2 of my essay?

Burl Henry
Reply to  HenryP
March 17, 2022 6:39 pm

HenryP:

100% of the temporary average anomalous global temperature increases, between 1850 and 2020, were caused by decreases in the amount of SO2 aerosols in the atmosphere, which increases the intensity of the sun’s rays striking the Earth’s surface. .

They are superimposed upon the upward temperature trend caused by the removal of SO2 aerosols from the atmosphere by global Clean Air efforts.

If any warming of the polar seas occurs, it is too small to show up in any plots of global temperatures, HadCrut or GISS/NASA

See: https://www.skepticmedpublishers.com/article-in-press-journal-of-earth-science-and-climatic-change/

Gordon A. Dressler
March 17, 2022 7:43 am

Very strange that in the above article there is absolutely no mention of the massive amounts of CO2 emissions accompanying volcano eruptions. One is left with this takeaway message:

“Large volcanic eruptions injecting sulfuric gases into the stratosphere and forming sulfate aerosols have a global or hemispheric cooling effect of several degrees lasting for several years after the eruption (Sigl et al., 2015; Sinnl et al., 2021).”

Was CO2 not a greenhouse gas during Earth’s last stadial? And to what degree, if any, was aerosol-induced atmospheric cooling offset by CO2-induced greenhouse warming?

One is left to infer that all the injections of gaseous CO2 into Earth’s atmosphere from those identified 1113 “massive” volcanic eruptions in NH and those 737 “massive” volcanic eruptions in SH (85 of which were reportedly shared between hemispheres) did little nothing to cause the end of the last glacial period.

Hmmm . . . I think there’s a message there.

Sara
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
March 17, 2022 8:42 am

I’m still trying to figure out what makes the planet go from iced-up and hostile to warm and welcoming, and why we can have reliable rains for 30 years but then, for no visible reason, the rain goes elsewhere.

This is why I make pancakes from scratch for breakfast when it’s cold.

Reply to  Sara
March 17, 2022 9:51 am

You guys are way ahead of me…I’m still trying to reconcile “desert droughts” from The Weather Channel”!

Sara
Reply to  Walter Keane
March 17, 2022 11:51 am

The Weather Channel was nattering about droughts in the desert? What planet are they on? Can’t be this one.

You gave me a good giggle there. Thank you!

Burl Henry
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
March 17, 2022 1:03 pm

Gordon A. Dressler::

“I think there’s a message there”

Yes:

Massive amounts of::volcanic CO2 injected into the stratosphere produced zero warming

Massive amounts of volcanic SO2 injected into the stratosphere caused Ice Age cooling.

Ice ages ended only when large volcanic eruptions ended, and their SO2 aerosols settled out of the atmosphere (within ~25 years, or less)

Bindidon
Reply to  Burl Henry
March 17, 2022 5:05 pm

” Massive amounts of::volcanic CO2 injected into the stratosphere produced zero warming ”

Absolutely correct. With the tiny remark that volcanoes’ CO2 output are about 3 % of human CO2 output.

” Massive amounts of volcanic SO2 injected into the stratosphere caused Ice Age cooling. ”

Absolutely correct. We even don’t need to go back to a Great Ice Age to be convinced; the Little one shows evidence enough:

– 1257 Samalas, Indonesia, VEI 7+
– 1280 Quilotoa, Andes, VEI 6
– 1452/3 Kuwae, Vanuatu, VEI 6+
– 1477 Bárðarbunga, Island, VEI 6
– 1563 Agua de Pau, Acores, VEI 5
– 1580 Billy Mitchell, Solomon Island, VEI 6
– 1586 Kelut, Island, VEI 5
– 1600 Huaynaputina, Peru, VEI 6
– 1641 Mount Melibengoy, Phillipines, VEI 6
– 1650 Kolumbo, Greece, VEI 6
– 1660 Long Island, Papua New Guinea, VEI 6

Burl Henry
Reply to  Bindidon
March 17, 2022 6:45 pm

Bindiden:

I would add that the SO2 aerosols from stratospheric VEI4 eruptions also contributed to the LIA cooling.

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  Burl Henry
March 18, 2022 8:13 am

“Massive amounts of volcanic CO2 injected into the stratosphere produced zero warming.”

We agree on that conclusion, except I would include CO2 injected into the troposphere as well. . . there is no reason to believe it all went directly in the stratosphere. And greenhouse gas warming occurs almost exclusively within the troposphere.

“Massive amounts of volcanic SO2 injected into the stratosphere caused Ice Age cooling.”

No, I cannot agree with that conclusion. I do not believe that paleoclimatology data (such as gas analysis of ice bubbles trapped in deep ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets) shows correlation of glacial/interglacial periods with atmospheric sulfate concentrations, let alone other paleoclimate proxies establishing such a correlation for the onset of true Ice Ages, such as the Quaternary that we are presently in.

TallDave
March 17, 2022 8:20 am

next one could tip us into 100,000+ years of glaciation

but don’t worry, IPCC assures us ECS is at least 3 and there’s absolutely no chance of an Ice Age for at least half a million years

remember, these are the same people who can’t even forecast 10 years behind the present

Last edited 3 months ago by TallDave
Sara
Reply to  TallDave
March 17, 2022 8:45 am

Just a question: are you saying that they are in denial that the last 600,000 years of ice/snow/cold interspersed with wet/sunny/warm ever happened? Just askin’, because geological stuff tells us otherwise.

TallDave
Reply to  Sara
March 18, 2022 8:51 am

no, they only claim we can’t glaciate until every last bit of the CO2 humans emitted has been reabsorbed, which they generally claim has such a long tail that it will take half a million years (although some estimates seem to be as low as 50K)

whiten
March 17, 2022 9:51 am

“To calculate the sulfate deposition of a specific eruption from a measured ice concentration a correction for the thinning at the corresponding depth is needed to obtain the past accumulation rate at the time of snowfall. Thinning functions are obtained from ice-flow modeling, and thus there is a site-specific dependency on accurate flow modeling associated with the sulfate deposition determination.”
——

Translation:

“Ok, well, we are throwing a coin here. heads you lose – tails we win… of course

“And also this extra spin in terminology, fresh in inducing more unbalance and instability in/with understanding and learning, will have you further better informed and pleased with/in the skill of tarot card reading of climate, which specifically in post modern is known as climate science or climate change science…”

cheers

Bindidon
March 17, 2022 4:56 pm

When I read

” Eighty-five of the volcanic eruptions identified by the researchers were large global eruptions. Sixty-nine of these are estimated to be larger than the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia – the largest volcanic eruption in recorded human history. ”

then I know that the people who wrote that stuff completely ignore the 1257 eruption of Mt Samalas, on Lombok Island, perfectly documented since 2013:

Source of the great A.D. 1257 mystery eruption unveiled, Samalas volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex, Indonesia
Frank Lavigne & alii

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1307520110

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How is it possible to ignore that in 2022?

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