University of Leeds
Embargo: 14 March 2022 at 16:00 (London time), 14 March 2022 at 12:00 (US Eastern Time).
Permafrost peatlands approaching tipping point
Researchers warn that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia are much closer to a climatic tipping point than previous believed.
The frozen peatlands in these areas store up to 39 billion tons of carbon – the equivalent to twice that stored in the whole of European forests.
A new study, led by the University of Leeds, used the latest generation of climate models to examine possible future climates of these regions and the likely impact on their permafrost peatlands.
The projections indicate that even with the strongest efforts to reduce global carbon emissions, and therefore limit global warming, by 2040 the climates of Northern Europe will no longer be cold and dry enough to sustain peat permafrost.
However, strong action to reduce emissions could help preserve suitable climates for permafrost peatlands in northern parts of Western Siberia, a landscape containing 13.9 billion tonnes of peat carbon.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, emphasises the importance of socio-economic policies aimed at reducing emissions and mitigating climate change and their role in determining the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw.
Study lead author, Richard Fewster is a PhD researcher in the School of Geography at Leeds. He said: “We examined a range of future emission trajectories. This included strong climate-change mitigation scenario, which would see large-scale efforts to curb emissions across sectors, to no-mitigations scenarios and worse-case scenarios.
“Our modelling shows that these fragile ecosystems are on a precipice and even moderate mitigation leads to the widespread loss of suitable climates for peat permafrost by the end of the century.
“But that doesn’t mean we should throw in the towel. The rate and extent to which suitable climate are lost could be limited, and even partially reversed, by strong climate-change mitigation policies.”
Study co-author Dr Paul Morris, Associate Professor of Biogeoscience at Leeds, Said: “Huge stocks of peat carbon have been protected for millennia by frozen conditions but once those conditions become unsuitable all that stored carbon can be lost very quickly.
“The magnitude of twenty-first century climate change is likely to overwhelm any protection the insulating properties of peat soils could provide.”
The large quantities of carbon stored in peatland permafrost soils are particularly threatened by rapid twenty-first-century climate change. When permafrost thaws the organic matter starts to decompose, releasing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, which increase global temperatures and potentially accelerate global climate change.
Study co-author Dr Ruza Ivanovic, Associate Professor in Climatology at Leeds said: “Peatland permafrost responds differently to changing climates than mineral-soil permafrost due to the insulating properties of organic soils, but peatlands remain poorly represented in Earth system models.
“It is vitally important these ecosystems are understood and accounted for when considering the impact of climate change on the planet.”
Study co-author Dr Chris Smith, from the School of Earth and Environment, said: “More work is needed to further understanding of these fragile ecosystems.
“Remote sensing and field campaigns can help improve maps of modern peat permafrost distribution in regions where observation data is lacking. This would enable future modelling studies to make hemispheric-scale projections.”
Further information:
The paper “Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia” is published in Nature Climate Change 14 March 2022 (DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7)
A research briefing on the paper by the study authors is also available on request.
University of Leeds
The University of Leeds is one of the largest higher education institutions in the UK, with more than 38,000 students from more than 150 different countries. We are renowned globally for the quality of our teaching and research.
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The University is a member of the Russell Group of research-intensive universities, and plays a significant role in the Turing, Rosalind Franklin and Royce Institutes. www.leeds.ac.uk
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JOURNAL
Nature Climate Change
DOI
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Computational simulation/modeling
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
Not applicable
ARTICLE TITLE
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
14-Mar-2022
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Oh noes! The permafrost is melting, the permafrost is melting! What a world, what a world! We’re off to see the wizard.
If the permafrost goes away wouldn’t that allow forests to grow and, you know, sequester more CO2 from the atmosphere. Seems like that would open up a whole lot of “carbon credits”. 😃
We don’t deserve God’s/Nature’s goodness.
As evil men do all that they can to destroy manufactured fertilizers and implement other policies aimed at bringing about global famine, along comes a CO2 producing mechanism that counteracts, to some degree these nefarious and misguided efforts.
More CO2 being released means natural fertilizer and reduced demands for water.
After all the many ‘tipping points’, it all just tips back again and life goes on as usual.
Permafrost used to be in Iowa during the last Glaciation phase how come no CH4 explosion in the last 20.000 years?
So, 39 Gt of carbon effluvia. That’s just a little more that one year’s worth of global emissions, which seem to add about 2ppm/yr, if you believe that sort of thing. So you get a huge bump of…2ppm. Maybe. I assume it isn’t all going to outgas in one global CO2 fart. Not to mention that other studies mentioned here indicate that microbes are pretty good at digesting all that organic matter and converting via the food chain to other forms.
Errr.. how did all that peat get there in the first place?
Well, it can’t have grown there. It must have been pre-historic mammoths, recognising the danger, that transported all the peat northwards and buried it under the ice. Some of them died in the effort, which is why some of their perfectly preserved carcasses can be found there. Or something.
“I am 63, I have had my fun with the Earth” – Bill Maher
Why do Leeds’ professors and researchers write such absurd claims regarding preferred alarmist dooms? Your professors and researchers remind me of a young child yelling “wolf”, repeatedly.
Often enough to discourage everyone from ever listening to predictions made by Leeds’ professors.
“Why do Leeds’ professors and researchers write such absurd claims regarding preferred alarmist dooms? “
Because there’s plenty of grant money available to enable them to do so, would be my guess.
Or there is only a pittance, and they’re all trying to get it. Observe a fishery stock pond when you toss in a fish egg. Or paparazzi and an ingenue.
It is fashionable and ingratiates the younger professors with the older, tenured professors who have the power to recommend or deny tenure.
“… used the latest generation of climate models …”
Enough said.
‘Permafrost peatlands approaching tipping point’
Heard it all before. The sooner it happens the better.
Put us all out of our agony ! !
The British have a bee in their bonnet about peat bogs. A few years ago some pundit declared that the bogs are carbon stores and therefore a weapon against climate change. Thus the lemmings are clamouring for rewilding and restoring and are constantly waxing lyrical about their importance in the noble struggle.
it’s all nonsense of course. The bogs contain carbon sequestered in the past, and the potential for further plant growth is determined by its surface size, not its depth. And, incidently, if you wait long enough its content will turn into coal.
Illusory, Arctic warming has been due to weaker solar wind states since 1995 driving a warm AMO phase via negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions, it will cool again through the 2030-2050’s when the solar wind strengthens again.
“More work is needed…”
The ever popular “send more money”.
Were they IPCC climate models? Which ones? ‘Carbon?’ I thought it was CO2 that was the problem? Drivelling nonsense about mitigation. Coeur