From North Carolina State University and the “because our models say-so” department comes this press release that is far more predictable than the climate change it claims to predict – Anthony.
By evaluating historical climate records, observational and projection data, an international team of researchers found a “pushing and triggering” mechanism that has driven the Arctic climate system to a new state, which will likely see consistently increased frequency and intensity of extreme events across all system components – the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere – this century.
“We know that mean temperatures are rising, and the Arctic is commonly considered an indicator of global changes due to its higher sensitivity to any perturbation of external and internal forcings,” says Xiangdong Zhang, research professor at North Carolina State University and senior scientist at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.
“The annual mean warming rate of the Arctic is more than three times the global average – this is known as Arctic amplification,” Zhang says. “But no systematic review has been done about the interplay of warmer temperatures with the dynamics of atmosphere, ocean and sea ice in weather and climate extremes around the Arctic.” Zhang is the lead author of the study.
The team looked at historic temperature data and the records of extreme events in the Arctic system components, as well as CMIP6 model projections that covered a period from the present-day to the end of the century. Overall, they saw that extreme events – atmosphere and ocean heatwaves, heavy precipitation, sea ice loss and ice sheet melt – have consistently occurred across the Arctic climate system with an increased frequency and intensity since the year 2000. The CMIP6, or Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, is an international project consisting of modeling centers and groups worldwide.
“We usually think about warming as a gradual, quasi-linear change of temperature over time – it slowly gets warmer everywhere,” Zhang says. “But nonlinear changes occur across the entire system. The interplay between warming and the changes in atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice dynamics creates ‘pushing and triggering’ mechanisms that result in a tipping point for the climate system.”
According to the researchers, since the year 2000 these pushing and triggering mechanisms have forced a step change, or sudden shift, in the baseline of the Arctic climate system.
The mechanisms in question include changes in large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation that enhance poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport and ocean heat transport into the Arctic. Intense cyclones and blocking high-pressure systems that obstruct the movement of other systems through the upper atmosphere further enhance warming, increasing sea ice and ice sheet temperatures and pushing the Arctic climate system to a tipping point, triggering more extremes.
“Once there is a baseline state change in climate, we also see a change in extreme events,” Zhang says.
According to the researchers’ analysis, since the year 2000 the probability of atmospheric heatwaves has increased by 20%; Atlantic Ocean layer warm events have increased by 76%; sea ice loss events have increased by 83%; and Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent has increased by 68%.
“Prior to the 21st century, these events were rare,” Zhang says. “But with continued warming they will become the new norm, and we could see ice-free summers in the Arctic by mid-century. More work must be done to understanding the interplay of multiscale climate drivers in the Arctic, so that we can predict and plan for the future.”
The study appears in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. Zhang is supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The work was done by leading and early-career scientists from the U.S., Australia, Canada, China, Finland, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
Just checked NSIDC and yep, Arctic is still covered with ice and snow. Same as Antarctic. Crisis averted simply by looking at the facts!
“By evaluating historical climate records, observational and projection data, an international team of researchers found a “pushing and triggering” mechanism that has driven the Arctic climate system to a new state,”
“projection data” there it is again the non-existent item the use of which invalidates this whole study.
Must be goalpost moving time again. At least it’s 25 years or more now, instead of 5 or 10 years. A lot safer that way.
The model worshippers just can’t help themselves, can they? Of course, having an unskeptical media eager for an alarming headline guarantees more modeling “studies” that provide them.
These claims would be a lot more impressive if the period of observation extended back 5-10 thousand years…
First, authors like these have to show that their temperature data has not been fiddled by adjusters; second, their findings have to be consistent with times before year 2000 as well as after; third, several articles show that every continent, even every bigger country on Earth claims that it is warming faster than the average.
When authors use raw data, use long periods of data instead of short, cherry picked periods, calculate and show classical uncertainty estimates – then many strange hypotheses are disproven. Geoff S
Based on a ~3500-year cycle I found in the orbits of the Jovian planets, and which is quite easy to see in the Greenland GISP2 ice core data, the next tipping point is ~2200AD. This same repeating pattern can also be found in the IntCal20 isotope records. In other words, it’s the Sun.
This result suggests that we’re currently living in a variation of the Minoan Warm Period. It also offers a possible explanation for the 1878 El Niño and wide-spread famine that occurred at that time.
Wilis E did a piece of work a while ago in which he analysed CERES data to show that temperature increases were larger at night, in the winter and, indeed, in the Artic. The collollary of this set of facts is that daytime, summer temperatures in temperate and tropical areas are lower than the average global temperature rises. Looking forward to the major splash piece about this in the Guardian!
Dr Xiangdong Zhang is a prolific producer of reports…or his team is…but where do his loyalties lie..?
Quelle surprise! More fifth column ‘research’ demonizing fossil fuel usage in order to support Western de-industrialization / collapse. Perhaps time to look into the allegiances of the ‘international team’ working stateside.
‘Three times average warming in the Arctic’ plus ‘Coldest October on record in the Antarctic’ = 0.
“By evaluating historical climate records …” and ” driven the Arctic climate system to a new state”
My sister pointed me to this: “What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.” Ecclesiastes 1:9:
I found the historical information in two reports especially interesting:
The first is from John Daly’s blog.
1: “It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.
(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations.”
President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817
2: Historical Aspects of the Northern Canadian Treeline, by Harvey Nichols
https://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic29-1-38.pdf
This appears to be from about 1976/77 – – I don’t see a date.
Since modeled tipping points didn’t tip, now we have modeled step changes stepping.
Every model in CMIP6 except INM CM5 produces a spurious tropical troposphere hotspot. Why should we believe their potentially spurious Arctic step changes?
A prior example based on a headline – “Antarctic Heating Up 4 Times Faster Than Average” (Sky News August 2022)
This is what happens when people who are ignorant of the basic rules of math when using ordinal or nominal data – unfortunately Centigrade and Fahrenheit are ordinal scales and cannot be freely manipulated.
If global average temperatures have risen from 15.0°C to 15.1°C “here” and Antarctic temperatures have risen from (say) minus 30°C to minus 29.6°C i.e. 0.4° “hotter” than average “there”
Then the ignorant thermogeddonists claim that “there” has risen 0.4°C while “here” has risen 0.1°C
Therefore temperature “there” has risen four time faster than “here”!
Horsefeathers !
The reality of thermodynamics in Kelvin is that “there” is only 0.14% hotter than “here”.
Such is the scientific nonsense touted by the MSM and swallowed by a scientifically ignorant and therefore gullible public.
If you can’t figure out why “there” is only 0.14% more and not four times hotter than “here” – welcome to the ignorant chattering masses – take a science course.
So when you find “Climate Scientists” multiplying or dividing the Centigrade or Fahrenheit scales by any factor, there can only be two reasons :-
1) They deliberately want to overemphasize (or underemphasise) their findings – which is misrepresentation or fraud.
2) They don’t actually understand what they are doing and you should ignore the accolade “scientist” if they are ignorant of such scientific basics.
So a scientist saying that 2°C is double 1°C is talking out of his hat (or somewhere way further south).
Another piece of junk science.
I guess they needed to stay quiet on the Northwest Passage nonsense while still talking scare in the Arctic and well away from Antarctica science news too.
Oh then I check ocean.dmi/dk and find no chance in summertime thawing (say four weeks at plus one and a half C) since 1958. Otherwise freezing all year, So how’s it warming?
The MODELS have always predicted warming in the Arctic and Antarctic would be three times the rate for globe. This began with Kellogg in 1974 in his WMO paper. It is simple in the Arctic -open ocean is supposed to have a lower albedo, thus warming the region quickly. Plausible, but not observed.The albedo change, due to Fresnel reflection changes at high latitudes, is actually very similar to sea ice. The models are biased.
All DATA contradict the models. Neither Greenland nor Antarctica is warming significantly. Danish data, going back to the 19th century shows this trend. The most recent study finds slight cooling the Greenland (https://mausamjournal.imd.gov.in/index.php/MAUSAM/article/view/6099/5719). UAH satellite data shows the same for Antarctica.
Let’s stop carrying water for people unwilling to face facts.
And , arctic summer daily mean temperatures have not risen in more than 65 years….. per DMI.
so , chicken littles , where is there any problem ??
I thought the DOE stopped funding this crap. Maybe this was a holdover finish up before the entire apparatus gets sh*tcanned. Lee, please defund Zhang et. al. if you haven’t already. They’re a threat to democracy and everything decent.
Using the mean temperature from 7,000 BCE to 1500 CE as a baseline for the Northern Hemisphere provides a much longer-term view of climate change and highlights both natural variability and major persistent trends that conventional 30-year baselines obscure.
Paleoclimate reconstructions show that the Northern Hemisphere peaked in warmth during the Holocene Climatic Optimum, around 6,000 to 5,000 BCE, with temperatures several degrees higher than today.
Since that maximum, proxy records such as ice cores, tree rings, and lake sediments indicate a multi-millennial declining climate trend—a cooling trend lasting over 7,000 years up to the present day.
This millennium-scale baseline reveals the context of present-day climate anomalies, allowing for a clearer distinction between natural cyclic changes and recent warming events. Modern temperatures can then be assessed against this longer historical mean, rather than narrowly selected recent periods that miss the long term trend.
Yep, more harebrained government are always the best solution to government created problems.
They deceived. They say in the paper: “under a very high emission scenario”. In other words, it won’t happen.
And BTW, funny how they say “The annual mean warming rate of the Arctic is more than three times the global average” instead of “The annual mean global warming rate is less than a third of the average warming rate of the Arctic“. It always has to sound scary.
How much are these loons being paid to spout this garbage? They should be in jail.
“The mechanisms in question include changes in large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation that enhance poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport and ocean heat transport into the Arctic.”
Sure, negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions for a wavier jet stream pattern which can transport warm humidity events into the Arctic. The negative NAO will also drive a warmer AMO, increasing poleward ocean heat transport into the Arctic. That’s normal when the solar wind is weaker, like during every centennial solar minimum.
These proxies actually makes me very sceptical of the Richard Alley GISP2 series through the little ice age. Greenland and AMO warming during the Oort solar minimum is the one that often gets labelled as the Medieval Warm Period on the GISP2 series, the comparative warming during Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton is not evident on the GISP2 series: