No returning to climate of the past even with CO2 reduction


Peer-Reviewed Publication

POHANG UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (POSTECH)

Figure 1
IMAGE: THE CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) ACCORDING TO THE CONCENTRATION OF CO2. WHEN THE CO2 LEVEL INCREASES, THE CENTER DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT AS IT INCREASES, THE ITCZ DESCENDS SOUTHWARDS, EVENTUALLY ENDING UP IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. view more  CREDIT: POSTECH

While the entire world focuses on achieving carbon neutrality – zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions – a new research shows climate change in some regions is inevitable even if the already increased CO2 level is reduced. As CO2 decreases, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) shifts southwards, which can trigger persistent El Niño conditions. El Niño refers to a phenomenon in which the sea surface temperature near the equator rises by 1 to 3°C above its surroundings, causing droughts, storms, and floods around the world.

A POSTECH research team led by Professor Jong-Seong Kug and Ji-Hoon Oh (Division of Environmental Science and Engineering) conducted a simulation on the Earth system model that can ramp-up and ramp-down the concentration of atmospheric CO2. The researchers observed that the ITCZ, which hardly moved when the CO2 concentration increased, sharply shifted southwards when the COlevel decreased. Even when the CO2 concentration was returned to its original level, its center still remained in the Southern Hemisphere.

The shift of the ITCZ, where 32% of the global precipitation occurs, is an extremely important factor in determining the amount of precipitation in the tropics and subtropics. The shift can change the Hadley circulation – the starting point of the global atmospheric circulation – to cause abnormalities in the global climate. Through this study, Professor Kug’s team has confirmed that as CO2 begins to decrease, the ITCZ moves to the Southern Hemisphere which remains warm, unlike the Northern Hemisphere that cools down with COreduction.

Atmospheric CO2 reduction could slowly return the average global temperature and precipitation to normal. However, the researchers claim that the climate may appear completely different in some regions. The change in precipitation due to the southwards shift of the ITCZ is very similar to the pattern during an extreme El Niño. In other words, it is expected that some regions will experience an abnormal climate condition where an extreme El Niño persists.

The model simulations confirmed that even if the increased COconcentration is reduced and returned to its original value, the Sahel zone including the Sahara Desert and southern Europe around the Mediterranean Sea experienced a 20% decrease in average annual precipitation compared to the current levels, leading to further desertification. In contrast, North and South America had an increase in precipitation by about 15%. In fact, a risk of more frequent flooding was found in the western regions of North and South America where the increase in precipitation was noticeable. In East Asia, including the Korean Peninsula, a possibility of more rain during the monsoon season was found due to the increased precipitation in summer.

“It is impossible to properly reflect the complex climate system if only the average global temperature and precipitation levels are considered when creating mitigation policies to prevent climate change, such as carbon neutrality or carbon reduction,” explained Professor Jong-Seong Kug. Emphasizing that regional changes such as the southwards shift of the ITCZ should be fully taken into account, Professor Kug added, “The already emitted greenhouse gases have lasting effects on the planet so we need to recognize their long-term impacts as well as their immediate effect on climate change.”

Recently published in Nature Climate Change, this study was conducted with the support from the Irreversible Climate Change Research Center funded by the National Research Foundation of Korea.


JOURNAL

Nature Climate Change

ARTICLE TITLE

Hysteresis of the intertropical convergence zone to CO2 forcing

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

9-Dec-2021

From EurekAlert!

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Beagle
December 27, 2021 2:08 am

“Atmospheric CO2 reduction could slowly return the average global temperature and precipitation to normal.”
Now define NORMAL.

Vuk
Reply to  Beagle
December 27, 2021 2:56 am

Normal are Ice Ages, we are lucky to live in abnormally short period of the warm climate which has enabled humans to develop civilisation and to prosper.

Last edited 30 days ago by Vuk
Vuk
Reply to  Vuk
December 27, 2021 3:02 am

NOAA data says so

NOAA-150kyrs_petit150.jpg
Stephen Skinner
Reply to  Vuk
December 27, 2021 4:49 am

And looking at that the temperatures may start falling off that cliff in the next 1,000 years. There is no evidence to indicate that the ice age has ended.
Also, I have just noticed how NOAA, which I guess is staffed with the ‘brightest and best’ has highlighted the MWP and only the MWP. This is appalling, firstly, because it betrays a complete lack of knowledge of the temperature ‘topology’ of the Holocene and secondly, scale. How long was the MWP?

Last edited 29 days ago by Stephen Skinner
Stephen Skinner
Reply to  Stephen Skinner
December 27, 2021 7:19 am

Correction, they did mark clearly as I’ve noticed where they put it so it wasn’t clear to me. My mistake. Either way my first point still stands.

Reply to  Beagle
December 27, 2021 8:18 am

The new normal is an unwarranted media induced fear about future weather. Mezoamerican’s cancelled their fear of PDO variability by sacrificing virgins to the weather gods. Today’s kinder, gentler version is to sacrifice science that can explain the variability, but not in a way that’s consistent with the gospels of the new climate religion.

Bill Powers
Reply to  Beagle
December 27, 2021 8:46 am

Normal is a mystical and very unattainable constant. Normal is a real world abnormal; for temp and precip would run within a range on a regular timetable at every point on the globe and never become uncomfortable let alone do damage with high winds and extremes.

But Beagle, the principle reason it is unattainable is that should the world ever achieve “Normal” we would no longer need the UN and the bureaucrats to fix the abnormality of it all and how else might they control the great unwashed masses.

Oh wait. Pans! Panic and Pandemonium from Pandemics. Yeah, pans, that’s the ticket!

Kevin McNeill
Reply to  Beagle
December 27, 2021 5:06 pm

You beat me to it.

Ron Long
December 27, 2021 2:13 am

The Professors run a “simulation” utilizing a “model” which shows decreasing atmospheric CO2 pushes the ICZ southward, then they claim their simulation/model shows even decreasing atmospheric CO2 won’t return to “normal”, which indicates that CO2 is not the climate cycle control knob. What a mess of a pseudo-scientific cobbled-up spending of federal (Korean?) money.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Ron Long
December 27, 2021 5:45 am

What I would like to know is how is CO2 pushing the ITCZ around? What’s the mechanism? Are they assuming CO2-added warmth is the cause?

Randy Stubbings
Reply to  Ron Long
December 27, 2021 9:00 am

But “model simulations CONFIRMED…”
Shouldn’t that be enough for you to have FAITH in their results???

MarkW
Reply to  Ron Long
December 27, 2021 9:43 am

If we keep pushing up the CO2 levels and then letting them drop over and over again, can we push the ITCZ all the way down to the equator? /sarc

fretslider
December 27, 2021 2:25 am

So what is their idea of normal temperatures and rates of precipitation?

Enough of this nonsense

Reply to  fretslider
December 27, 2021 6:40 am

Now at 7:30am it is -32C in Calgary – where is that global warming we’re supposed to be so afraid of?
Went shopping yesterday – the Boxing Day ritual. It’s so cold here that the boogers freeze inside your nose.
 
More from my friend Cap Allon at electroverse.net:

RECORD-BREAKING FLURRIES HIT PRINCE GEORGE, + “SNOW TO PILE AS HIGH AS A ONE-STORY BUILDING” IN PARTS OF THE US
DECEMBER 23, 2021 CAP ALLON
According to the NWS, the Sierra Nevada mountains could receive up to 10 feet during the Christmas weekend.
 
“RED ALERTS” ISSUED IN INDIA AS COLD WAVE INTENSIFIES; RECORD SNOWFALL HITS SWITZERLAND; + AMID FREEZING LOWS & ENERGY SHORTAGES, EUROPE STRUGGLES TO KEEP THE LIGHTS ON
DECEMBER 22, 2021 CAP ALLON
The cold of winter is set to invade even the wealthiest of nations: Prepare for rolling blackouts…
 
BHOPAL, INDIA SUFFERS LOWEST TEMP IN 55 YEARS, “HAZARDOUS” FREEZE TO HIT THE PRAIRIES, RARE POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS SPOTTED, + TONGA-HUNGA VOLCANO ERUPTS TO 49,200 FEET
DECEMBER 21, 2021 CAP ALLON
The COLD TIMES are returning…
 
EUROPE FORECAST A BITTERLY COLD AND SNOWY CHRISTMAS, VIRUS LEAK, + WASHINGTON POST (& GOOGLE) ATTACKS ELECTROVERSE…?
DECEMBER 16, 2021 CAP ALLON
The truth always prevails… eventually.
 
SNOWFALL RECORDS (FROM THE 1800S) FALL IN NEVADA & CALIFORNIA–JUST AS NEW BOGUS STUDY CLAIMS “NO SNOW” IN 35 YEARS
DECEMBER 15, 2021 CAP ALLON
We are being lied to on every front. A healthy suspicion is advised.
 
MOSCOW BREAKS MULTIDECADAL SNOWFALL RECORDS, “TREMENDOUS SNOW TOTALS” HIT SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, + SNOWIEST GREECE SINCE 2004
DECEMBER 14, 2021 CAP ALLON
Dr. Richard Courtney: “The empirical evidence strongly indicates that the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis is wrong.”
 
SNOW CHAOS IN SERBIA & THE BALKANS, COLDER & SNOWIER WINTER HEADED FOR U.S. WITH INCOMING ‘POLAR VORTEX’, + FEMA GUILTY OF TWISTER ‘CLIMATEERING’
DECEMBER 13, 2021 CAP ALLON
Dr. Vincent Gray: “The [IPCC] climate change statement is an orchestrated litany of lies.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
December 27, 2021 9:20 am

Is “boogers” a scientific term?

Dave Fair
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
December 27, 2021 10:41 am

Ask any parent.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
December 27, 2021 12:04 pm

In the UK we call them “bogeys”.

RickWill
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
December 27, 2021 1:14 pm

Boreal winters have gradually reducing sunlight for the last 400 years and that process is in train for another 10,000 years. Calgary is a good observation point for the current cycle of glaciation.

No one living today will get to see any serious impact of glaciation but it is underway.

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  RickWill
December 27, 2021 2:30 pm

The proper terminology is “neoglaciation”, and it has been underway for ~5,000 years.

Mountain glaciers and ice fields have formed again and with fits and starts are regrowing. Muskeg is increasing via paludification. The Arctic treeline has shifted south by 500 miles or more since the Hypsithermal. Nunataks, islands of montane vegetation surrounded by alpine tundra, are developing again. Ice is accumulating in central Greenland, and coastal vegetation is disappearing.

All these and more neoglaciation phenomena are observable and have been well-documented.

Mardler
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
December 28, 2021 8:41 am

The UK was cool on Christmas day i.e. far from severely cold.
UK temps are forecast to be 13 to 14C until Sunday.
It’s been another warm winter so far, very wet too.
How many of those other claims are true?
(Btw, I am 100% against the watermelon climate blob.)

Gregory Woods
December 27, 2021 2:28 am

Atmospheric CO2 reduction could slowly return the average global temperature and precipitation to normal.

Just what is ‘NORMAL’?

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Gregory Woods
December 27, 2021 4:17 am

The time of Hans Christian Anderson; Ice Faires, skating on the Thames, and the like. Ah, the good old days.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
December 27, 2021 8:49 am

And ice bergs floating downstream in the Delaware River in NJ.

D in Delaware
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
December 28, 2021 4:57 am

“…. downstream in the Delaware River in NJ.”

Interesting trivia –
The shared border between Pennsylvania and New Jersey is split down the middle (which is typical for most state river borders). So only half in NJ.

When the Delaware river gets to the state of Delaware, the border is at the NJ shoreline (not typical), so All of the river is in the state of Delaware, virtually none in NJ.

jmcguire
Reply to  Gregory Woods
December 27, 2021 2:51 pm

Is this not backwards?
More CO2 will dissolve in water, the cooler the water gets. A reduction of CO2 in the atmosphere has no effect on the temp of the water below it. This is like putting the cart before the horse

December 27, 2021 2:32 am

Not another unvalidated model. Into the round green filing cabinet with it.

MarkW
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
December 27, 2021 9:44 am

How can it be unvalidated. It showed them what they wanted to see. Isn’t that enough proof that it works?

Pablo
December 27, 2021 2:32 am

“this study was conducted with the support from the Irreversible Climate Change Research Center funded by the National Research Foundation of Korea.”

Toby Nixon(@tobynixon)
Reply to  Pablo
December 27, 2021 4:39 am

Indeed. So they got exactly what they paid for. Funny how that works.

frankclimate
December 27, 2021 2:57 am

The caption of the shown figure makes no sense when describing the figure. The sentence:”WHEN THE CO2 LEVEL INCREASES, THE CENTER DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT AS IT INCREASES, Decreases THE ITCZ DESCENDS SOUTHWARDS,… ”
would make much more sense.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  frankclimate
December 27, 2021 4:18 am

This is climate science! It doesn’t need to make sense..

Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 3:12 am

“While the entire world focuses on achieving carbon neutrality…”

the entire world? well, if you exclude China and India and Russia and Africa

Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 3:15 am

“…the researchers claim that the climate may appear completely different in some regions…”

May? in some regions? Wow, now that sounds like SETTLED science- precise, like nuclear physics…

Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 3:21 am

“The model simulations confirmed….”
Confirmed????

I looked up “confirmed” on dictionary.com and it says:

  • made certain as to truth, accuracy, validity, availability, etc.: confirmed reports of new fighting at the front; confirmed reservations on the three o’clock flight to Denver.
  • settled; ratified.
  • firmly established in a habit or condition; inveterate: a confirmed bachelor.
  • given additional determination; made resolute.
  • having received the religious rite of confirmation.

Must be one heck of a model- deserving of a Noble Prize.

Mark BLR
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 5:24 am

I was originally going to post something along the lines of …

The model simulations confirmed that

No they didn’t !

… but scrolled down to check other people’s reactions first.

You highlighted the (main) problem better than I could have.

Last edited 29 days ago by Mark BLR
Graemethecat
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 6:30 am

What this DOES confirm is that so-called Climate “Scientists” have simply abandoned the real, physical world to operate instead in a digital fairy story.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Graemethecat
December 27, 2021 6:36 am

well, we have to believe what they say- that report is peer reviewed! Kinda like a “papal bull”

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 9:32 am

Well, it’s definitely bull.

PaulH
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 6:32 am

Indeed…

quote-scientific-knowledge-is-a-body-of-statements-of-varying-degrees-of-certainty-some-most-richard-p-feynman-38-5-0594.jpg
Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 3:23 am

Hysteresis Hysterical interpretation of the intertropical convergence zone to CO2 forcing”

fixed it :-}

Dakota Denier
December 27, 2021 3:26 am

Egads! We’ve broken the planet! It’s not only unprecedented, it’s irreversible.

This report is so full of red flags as to burn your corneas. Models, simulations, et al.

Funded by the Irreversible Climate Change Research Center. Do you think that maybe their mission is to find irreversible climate change and that they will inevitably find something that looks like it? When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem begins to look like a nail.

Meanwhile, in other news, neuropsychologists funded by the Irreversibly Stupid Research Center have determined that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions cause an unprecedented expansion of the Intercranial Stupid Zone.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Dakota Denier
December 27, 2021 8:48 am

It’s not only unprecedented, it’s irreversible.

Now that there is a real “Tipping Point!”

Art
Reply to  Dakota Denier
December 27, 2021 9:47 am

They might want to reconsider using the word “irreversible”. If it can’t be reversed, what’s the point of any more funding?

December 27, 2021 4:04 am

It is impossible to properly reflect the complex climate system

They should have stopped just there.

Bruce Cobb
December 27, 2021 4:20 am

Uh-oh, now we’ve done it. We broke the planet.

Zig Zag Wanderer
December 27, 2021 4:29 am

The model simulations confirmed that…

Enough reading to confirm that this is merely a CAGW Domesday Cult Propaganda piece

Last edited 29 days ago by Zig Zag Wanderer
Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
December 27, 2021 9:42 am

In fairness, the model simulations did confirm that they are model simulations.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
December 27, 2021 10:47 am

The model simulations confirmed the programmers’ preconceived opinions. Science? No.

Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 4:47 am

off topic- sorry, but just saw a very good YouTube video about nuclear energy in Europe- learned a lot and it was nicely done from a pure videographer perspective

“Why is FRANCE betting on NUCLEAR ENERGY again?”

Stephen Skinner
December 27, 2021 4:47 am

“The model simulations confirmed…” Oh, for crying out loud. Not the **** models!!!

How can the ITCZ move south as it is a product of the size/spin of the earth along with the depth and mass of the atmosphere? Any asymmetry of this region around the equator is as a consequence of the position and shape of the oceans, which is determined by the land masses and mountains. If there were no land masses and the world was just a uniform ocean and atmosphere then the atmosphere would organise itself more symmetrically such as on Jupiter and Saturn.

Last edited 29 days ago by Stephen Skinner
DHR
December 27, 2021 5:35 am

The Irreversible Climate Change Research Center concludes that climate change is irreversable. Who would ever have seen that coming?

Scissor
Reply to  DHR
December 27, 2021 5:46 am

🙂 clown show.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Scissor
December 27, 2021 8:51 am

How many climate modelers can be stuffed into a mini cooper?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  DHR
December 27, 2021 6:02 am

Yes, it’s like the UN IPCC:

UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations responsible for advancing knowledge on human-induced climate change. Wikipedia

The mission of the IPCC is to find human-induced climate change, and lo, and behold, that’s what they claim they have found. Would they claim anything different? I don’t think so. If they did, all their paychecks and political power would go away. No, the IPCC is going to find human-induced climate change whether it is there or not because it is in their interests to do so.

Alexander Vissers
December 27, 2021 5:53 am

Impossible to know if they are right or wrong, it depends on how good the modell is. This is the fundamental problem with model evidence, there is no way of knowing if it is right or wrong.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Alexander Vissers
December 27, 2021 8:53 am

There are ways of testing models. The problem is that it is rarely done. Perhaps they are afraid of having to admit that the model failed the test and there is nothing that can be published and added to their CV.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
December 27, 2021 9:46 am

Well, weather models are falsified all the time. Just yesterday the forecast for today in my area was 6% precip. Today it says 21%. That’s a falsification. More than 300% wrong. They only get it “right” through the broken clock syndrome.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
December 28, 2021 8:04 am

Different forecasters give different forecasts. It is my impression that all of them have high rates of false-positives for rain for at least the mid-west and NE USA. They do better in California where most of the rain is in the Winter, and there tends to be light, continuous rain everywhere, at least in Northern California.

Joao Martins
Reply to  Alexander Vissers
December 27, 2021 9:22 am

Alexander: there is no model evidence. Models do not produce evidence (evidence, facts, is produced by nature), models produce outputs.

If models do represent accurately the way nature exists, their outputs may be quite useful because they may be quite close to the observed facts. A simple example: matter mode of existence is very well described by an old model, Newtonian physics. This model is so good that its outputs enabled Armstrong to go to the Moon, walk over its surface, and come back to Earth.

The problem arises when people call “models” to their hypotheses, to the products of their imagination, instead of doing the hard job: doing a formal description of the “behavior” of nature, testing to check if it is correct (at least inside the limits of the realm of their observation and of the precision of their measurements), and then using that description (that model) to write a computer programme for doing quickly the calculations.

Last edited 29 days ago by Joao Martins
very old white guy
December 27, 2021 6:01 am

Do these jerks think that the climate is something static that can controlled with a thermostat? I have been observing stupidity for decades and it just gets worse not better.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  very old white guy
December 27, 2021 2:12 pm

I have been observing stupidity for decades and it just gets worse not better

Stupidity seems to have a direct correlation with CO2 levels. Is there nothing that the Magic Molecule ™ can’t do?

TonyG
Reply to  very old white guy
December 28, 2021 12:25 pm

Do these jerks think that the climate is something static that can controlled with a thermostat?

After several years of hearing from them, that appears to be exactly what they believe. (I won’t say “think” because there is none of that going on)

Sara
December 27, 2021 6:01 am

“The already emitted greenhouse gases have lasting effects on the planet so we need to recognize their long-term impacts as well as their immediate effect on climate change.” – Perfesser Kug

Yeah, well, we’ll have much, much bigger dragonflies and centipedes, and possibly/probably lots more GREEN cover like PLANTS, and BIGGER plants, so I’m guessing the people who do these studies (to justify grants money?) don’t know or even vaguely understand how biology works?

Almost forgot to include the part (as David Middleton once reminded me!) that tells us that too much O2 in the atmosphere will allow raging wildfires to occur. (See the Carboniferous and Silurian periods) But those things don’t occur to Those People, do they?

After all, centipedes were as much as 10 feet long in the Carboniferous period: Arthropluera was perhaps the largest arthropod of the Carboniferous and was overall among the largest arthropods that ever lived, measuring on average between 6.6 – 10 feet (2 – 3 m) long, as large as a man or crocodile and as long as a car. — https://prehistoric-earth-a-natural-history.fandom.com/wiki/Arthropleura

Really, I would prefer to not run into a creepy crawler that size without a very large bottle of a degreasing household cleaner like Fantastik.

So if plants do what they usually do – pull all that CO2 into their vascular systems, along with a gobsmacking amount of water, we’ll have more plants releasing higher and higher levels of O2 into the atmosphere, and — well, folks, be prepared to meet some Very Large Bugs. And there goes that whole “CO2 is bad stuff” right out the window.

I mean, who does NOT like plants? Do you think vegans might get the point? Think about it for a minute: broccoli plants 5 feet high from root to crown, with stems so full of woody fiber that the brocco is inedible. Whatever would the vegans do????

Last edited 29 days ago by Sara
Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Sara
December 27, 2021 8:53 am

Klaus Schwab of WEF infamy is now telling people to not wash their clothes in order to combat “climate change”.

You go first, Klaus Klown.

TonyG
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
December 28, 2021 12:27 pm

Klaus Schwab of WEF infamy is now telling people to not wash their clothes

The guy who invented “Soylent” (the “meal-replacement” drink) apparently wears clothes only once and then disposes of them because he believes that’s better for the environment than washing them.

Last edited 28 days ago by TonyG
Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Sara
December 27, 2021 2:14 pm

with stems so full of woody fiber that the brocco is inedible

You mean broccoli is actually edible? Who knew?

Vuk
December 27, 2021 6:22 am

Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg and his wife have bought 110 acres of a beach front former sugar plantation on the Hawaiian island of Kauai.
The ardent climate change warrior Zuckerberg is not concerned about forthcoming catastrophic sea level rise.
Is he someone who says he has particular moral beliefs but behaves in way that shows he is not sincere?comment image

Nick Schroeder
December 27, 2021 7:12 am

So, it’s a “peer reviewed publication.”
BFD!
That’s no guarantee it can’t be a total load of horse manure especially if the reviewers are fellow BS slingers.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
December 27, 2021 8:59 am

Every article and comment published here on WUWT is essentially ‘peer reviewed,’ with varying degrees of expertise, and different biases.

Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 7:42 am

The Boston Globe reports a major snow storm in northern CA. Probably caused by global warming. The photo is from the paper.

fd0535ce-668b-11ec-8ad3-826380e2a93c.jpg
Last edited 29 days ago by Joseph Zorzin
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 9:01 am

It is noteworthy that the picture was taken in the vicinity of Donner’s Summit, named after the infamous Donner Party.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
December 27, 2021 9:50 am

Lunch anyone?

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
December 27, 2021 2:02 pm

Where was Blitzen? Oh, right – they ate him.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 27, 2021 9:49 am

We had snow here in Western Washington starting on Christmas day. All through the week, the weather people were wishy washy on whether we would get any. They certainly didn’t predict that it would be 12F last night on Whidbey Island.

Yeah, models work.

Rob_Dawg
December 27, 2021 7:43 am

> “The model simulations confirmed”

I weep for the state of editorial review.

MarkW
Reply to  Rob_Dawg
December 27, 2021 9:50 am

How can a model confirm, something that the model just found?
They ran it twice and got the same output each time?

Rob_Dawg
Reply to  MarkW
December 27, 2021 11:15 am

Confirmation bias certainly got confirmed.

Smart Rock
December 27, 2021 8:03 am

“Climate science” is starting to become a parody of itself.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Smart Rock
December 27, 2021 9:50 am

If by “starting” you mean has been for 30 years, then yes.

Richard M
December 27, 2021 8:22 am

The latest scientific data from CERES tells a different story. The data appears to show that the warming seen over the past 25 years was driven by a reduction in clouds and not CO2.

The drop of cloudiness around the millennium by about 1.5% has certainly fostered the positive net radiative flux.
comment image

“… the root cause for the positive TOA net flux and, hence, for a further accumulation of energy during the last two decades was a declining outgoing shortwave flux and not a retained LW flux. ” – Hans-Rolf Dübal and Fritz Vahrenholt, October 2021, journal Atmosphere, Radiative Energy Flux Variation from 2001-2020.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/10/1297/htm

The shift from a negative to a positive PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) index as an additional factor for the net TOA flux”

OK, the PDO shift occurred in 2014 so how does this align with the warming?

https://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:1997/to/plot/uah6/from:1997/to:2014/trend/plot/uah6/from:2015/to/trend

So two drops in clouds. One right around the turn of the century and another around 2014. Warming followed. Sure looks like a solid theory. This means we’ve likely gone 25 years without any greenhouse warming. I wonder how that fits into their model.

frankclimate
Reply to  Richard M
December 27, 2021 8:52 am

https://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:1997/to/plot/jisao-pdo/from:1997/to/normalise
The cloud reaction ( for the “albedo warming” after 2014 ) could be indeed a result of the PDO+ swing.

Laws of Nature
December 27, 2021 9:15 am
The very first thing which should be pointed out to all those simulation papers is the article of R. McKitrick (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05913-7) showing that the attribution from models to real world is fundamentally flawed.
Dennis G Sandberg
December 27, 2021 9:16 am

“Recently published in Nature Climate Change, this study was conducted with the support from the Irreversible Climate Change Research Center funded by the National Research Foundation of Korea.”

What a surprise, the research center established to study irreversible climate change, found irreversible climate change. That’s as surprising as the IPCC finding that CO2 is the climate control knob. Are we ever going to move on from this nonsense?

Slowroll
December 27, 2021 9:18 am

“Models confirmed…”. What bullshit. Models confirm nothing. I worked my whole career in the semiconductor business where everything is designed using Models. An axiom from people who actually know Modeling is that models never work. They can be tweaked into usability only after much testing against REALITY.

Philip
December 27, 2021 9:28 am

Nature Magazine = BBC = Climate Change Propaganda

Art
December 27, 2021 9:40 am

Quote – “Even when the CO2 concentration was returned to its original level…”
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At that point I realized there was no point reading any further. “Original” level???

Well actually I realized that from reading the title because we are already in the climate of the past and no matter how much it changes in any direction, we will still be in a climate of the past. Earth has been through it all before.

Last edited 29 days ago by Art
Alfred T Mahan
December 27, 2021 10:00 am

Since the climate can logically only get hotter, get colder, or stay the same, and it’s been all of those in the past, saying we can’t return to a climate of the past is nonsensical.

n.n
December 27, 2021 10:22 am

A conclusion that begs the question. Notably an assumption, assertion of cause and effect. And a colored perception of systems and processes, past, present, and future.

December 27, 2021 11:12 am

If we build our assumptions into a model, then the model confirms our assumptions. The end.

Dale Mullen
December 27, 2021 11:42 am

I’m confused by the information provided under the initial graph and the text directly below. Which is it…does the ITCZ shift to the south in CO2 levels “increase” (text with graph) or does the shift occur when the CO2 levels “decrease” (1st paragraph), thus causing lingering El Nino conditions?

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Dale Mullen
December 27, 2021 2:17 pm

Yes.

The Magic Molecule can do anything at all that the models want it to do.

ATheoK
December 27, 2021 2:08 pm

The model simulations confirmed that even if the increased CO2 concentration is reduced”

More self satisfaction models return what the modeler desires.

Alan Tomalty
December 27, 2021 3:49 pm

“The model simulations confirmed” I stopped reading at this point.

TonyG
December 28, 2021 8:43 am

return the average global temperature and precipitation to normal

Did someone finally define “normal”? I’ve been asking what the right temperature (and the rest) should be for years, still haven’t gotten an answer.

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