Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #483

The Week That Was: 2021-12-11 (December 11, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “It is as fatal as it is cowardly to blink facts because they are not to our taste.” – John Tyndall, 1877.

Number of the Week: 15 States

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: Last week, TWTW focused on the CLINTEL lecture William Happer gave in Amsterdam. The lecture is important because it presents evidence that the total approach used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers including many US science institutions is wrong if the goal is to calculate the influence of increasing greenhouse gases on temperatures. If the goal is frightening the public to raise money, then the approach may be successful.

This TWTW will address the issue somewhat differently. In a podcast, Meteorologist Cliff Mass explains why he thinks that the climate models with non-linear equations can be used to forecast the future climate even though such models cannot successfully forecast the weather two weeks into the future. The views of Mass deserve consideration because he has been critical of many of the tricks used by the climate establishment such as “Fractional Attribution of Risk” (FAR), also called “Optimal Fingerprinting.”

Also, this TWTW will discuss the Happer presentation in light of what blogger Ron Clutz calls “Five Lines of Evidence Against GHG Warming Hypothesis.” The critical issue is understanding what is occurring in the atmosphere where greenhouse gas warming occurs. What is occurring on the surface may or may not reflect what is occurring in the atmosphere. The approach of the IPCC and its followers of using surface-air temperature data (measurements about shoulder height) is a poor approximation of atmospheric temperature trends.

Also briefly discussed are some of the actions by the Biden Administration to “combat climate change” which will inevitably increase energy prices in the US. These receive great press, but the press is not paying the energy bills of the public. Plus, it would be careless not to mention that in litigation the attorneys for Facebook fact checkers wrote that its fact-checking is opinion not fact!

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Can Climate Models Forecast? In his podcast Cliff Mass asserts that unlike weather models which cannot forecast beyond two weeks, climate models can. Weather prediction is specific, and (with chaos theory) non-linear complex systems like the atmosphere rapidly lose predictability over time.

Mass asserts that climate predictions are different than weather prediction – they do not predict the exact state of the atmosphere at a particular time, but they predict the average conditions over time. He states that climate is highly controlled by the input and output of energy in the atmosphere: how much solar radiation is going in, how much radiation (infrared) is going out. And he further states that the outgoing radiation is dominated by the composition of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Thus, he asserts that models can provide excellent guidance.

However, there is uncertainty in the models, including the amount of greenhouse gases and particles in the air (aerosols). Further there are known problems with clouds and precipitation, and with natural variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), convection, and thunderstorms. Nonetheless, Mass states that climate predictions make sense but those making predictions/forecasts must recognize the uncertainties.

Mass gives a good overview from the standpoint of one who understands weather prediction and the limits of predictions. However, one of the very important items he does not mention is how changing concentrations of each greenhouse gas interact with other greenhouse gases and how these changes in turn change the outgoing radiation. Understanding these changes entails an understanding of spectroscopy and quantum theory, which Mass may not recognize. Spectroscopy was developed to understand the interaction between electromagnetic energy (light energy) and matter such as molecules of greenhouse gases. Quantum theory was developed to explain these experimental observations.

As shown by William Happer, the effectiveness of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas is lost at the current concentrations. In fact, the effectiveness is lost at concentrations well below the concentrations required for many living plants. This loss of effectiveness is called saturation. It is similar to a sponge full of water, which cannot absorb much more. (Or very humid air which is called saturated because it cannot absorb any more water at a given temperature.)

Further, Mass does not mention water vapor, which was recognized as the dominant greenhouse gas by greenhouse pioneer John Tyndall who began his experiments using early spectroscopy in 1859. Water vapor changes the effectiveness of all other greenhouse gases, especially methane. Thus, projecting the composition of the atmosphere into the future is largely meaningless unless one takes into account the changing effectiveness of all the greenhouse gases with changing composition. However, the climate models used by the IPCC do not. By relying on surface-air temperatures, the IPCC modeling effort confuses the changing greenhouse effect with other human effects and natural influences, and its predictions become essentially meaningless. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.

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Four Ways to Failure? Following his post on the Happer lecture, Ron Clutz posted “Global Warming Theory and the Tests It Fails 2021” which updates previous posts on that subject. Clutz states a hypothesis that may state the claims of the IPCC. TWTW will not get into the hypothesis because the IPCC does not state one and any proposed hypothesis can be claimed not to be true by some of the IPCC followers. What is interesting is the five different studies that Clutz brings up countering the IPCC findings that human CO2 emissions will have a significant influence on global temperatures. Four of these studies are discussed below. The fifth deals with planetary motion and is beyond the scope of this TWTW.

The first three studies rely on radiosonde balloon studies and Clutz explains what goes up on a radiosonde balloon launch. According to Clutz”

In 2004 Ferenc Miskolczi studied the radiosonde datasets and found that the optical density at the top of the troposphere does not change with increasing CO2, since reducing H2O maintains optimal radiating efficiency.  His publication was suppressed by NASA, and he resigned from his job there. He has elaborated on his findings in publications as recently as 2014.

Clutz links to a more complete description of what happened to Miskolczi at NASA. The second of the four studies was by Ronan and Michael Connolly on radiosonde data in 2014. It concluded:

“It can be seen from the infra-red cooling model of Figure 19 [not shown] that the greenhouse effect theory predicts a strong influence from the greenhouse gases on the barometric temperature profile. Moreover, the modeled net effect of the greenhouse gases on infra-red cooling varies substantially over the entire atmospheric profile.

“However, when we analysed the barometric temperature profiles of the radiosondes in this paper, we were unable to detect any influence from greenhouse gases. Instead, the profiles were very well described by the thermodynamic properties of the main atmospheric gases, i.e., N 2 and O 2 , in a gravitational field.”

“While water vapour is a greenhouse gas, the effects of water vapour on the temperature profile did not appear to be related to its radiative properties, but rather its different molecular structure and the latent heat released/gained by water in its gas/liquid/solid phase changes.

“For this reason, our results suggest that the magnitude of the greenhouse effect is very small, perhaps negligible. At any rate, its magnitude appears to be too small to be detected from the archived radiosonde data  Pg. 18 of referenced research paper.” [not shown]

Again, Clutz has a link to a more complete discussion. The third paper is John Christy’s testimony on March 29, 2017, to the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology. It features a graph that actually appeared in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR5, 2013). The graph clearly shows that IPCC models without greenhouse gas components more closely follow the observed vertical tropical temperature trends from 1979 to 2010 than the IPCC models do when they include the greenhouse gas components. Until roughly above 40,000 feet, the warming forecast in the model trends with greenhouse gases greatly exceeds the warming observed in the atmosphere. It makes no difference how good the physics behind the models is, if they are used to forecast the effect of greenhouse gases, they must get the influence of the gases correct. They do not.

The fourth study is from the presentation by William Happer discussed in last week’s TWTW. This relies on five instruments on three satellites in the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) program designed to measure changes in electromagnetic radiation at the top of the atmosphere: how much radiation is coming in at the top of the atmosphere and how much is going out. If greenhouse gases are causing dangerous global warming, we should be seeing a striking increase. We are not seeing it. There is variation but no trend. Clutz gives a lengthy description of what is not occurring. He uses both the older Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) data that began in 1984 and the CERES data that began in 1997.

Clutz reproduces Happer’s important graph showing how different greenhouse gases influence outgoing radiation. Due to triggering spam-blockers, the graph is reproduced in this TWTW on the SEPP website but is not in the text.

The green line in the graph shows what would be radiated to space if there were no carbon dioxide and the world would be colder. The black line shows what is radiated to space with a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm (parts per million volume) slightly less than this year’s concentration. Clutz writes:

“The important point here is the red line. This is what Earth would radiate to space if you were to double the CO2 concentration from today’s value. Right in the middle of these curves, you can see a gap in the spectrum. The gap is caused by CO2 absorbing radiation that would otherwise cool the Earth. If you double the amount of CO2, you don’t double the size of that gap. You just go from the black curve to the red curve, and you can barely see the difference. The gap hardly changes.

“The message I want you to understand, which practically no one really understands, is that doubling CO2 makes almost no difference.” [Boldface in original]

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Creating Problems, Not Solving Them: Those who lived through the 1970s probably remember the long lines to buy gasoline and sharp increases in energy costs. This started with the Arab Oil Embargo in 1973 when Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an embargo against the US for its support of Israel during the 1973 Arab Israeli War. The embargo extended to other nations such as the Netherlands as well. The Nixon administration announced measures to boost domestic oil production and reduce vulnerability. Even though there was no satisfactory peace agreement between Israel and the Arab states, the embargo was lifted in 1974. Measures undertaken by the US government included the creation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a national 55-mile-per-hour speed limit, imposition of fuel economy standards and the creation of the International Energy Agency.

Later in the 1970s the Carter Administration promoted development of the US coal industry to make the US less dependent on imported oil. Energy independence became a slogan of both political parties. Independence in terms of zero net imports of oil and gas were achieved during the Trump administration. Now the Biden administration has launched a war on carbon dioxide, which actually poses no threat to the US public. As seen above, adding carbon dioxide does little to increase atmospheric temperatures.

At the recently completed 26th Conference of Parties in Glasgow by the UN, China, India, and other eastern Asian countries did not even give lip service to western demands to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. They realize what a great benefit fossil fuels are in providing much cleaner heating than traditional fuels such as wood and dung. Further, they realize how critical reliable, affordable electricity is for operating a modern economy – something that appears beyond the scope of modern, sophisticated westerners. Developing countries in Asia recognize how critical the use of fossil fuels is for lifting many people out of extreme poverty. Why Western leaders are so oblivious to the plight of the poor is a mystery.

Yet, climate envoy John Kerry continues to complain that Asian countries are not doing their share “to fight climate change”, in essence to fight nature. The Biden Administration is using banking regulations to try to prevent banks from lending money to companies that explore and develop oil resources, it is cutting off pipelines, and doing whatever it can to reduce fossil fuel production, which will inevitably increase energy prices. With superb irony, it pleaded to OPEC and Russia to increase oil production while trying to suppress production in North America. Furthermore, the Biden Administration disavows any responsibility for increasing energy prices and for inflation, which are the inevitable outcomes of its actions. See links under Change in US Administrations, Energy Issues – US, and Washington’s Control of Energy and Article # 3.

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Factional Opinion or Opiniated Facts? Anthony Watts notes that Facebook’s “fact checkers” and Meta Platforms, Inc. labeled climate change information by journalist John Stossel as “false and misleading.” Stossel sued and in their legal response, the attorneys for Meta Platforms, Inc. state:

“For another, Stossel’s claims focus on the fact-check articles written by Climate Feedback, not the labels affixed through the Facebook platform. The labels themselves are neither false nor defamatory; to the contrary, they constitute protected opinion.”

So, labels given by “fact checkers” are protected opinion which sums up their search for evidence. See links under Censorship.

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Tornadoes: Several late season tornadoes hit Kentucky and neighboring states in the evening of December 10 and the morning of December 11. As Joe Bastardi of WeatherBELL Analytics explains that late season tornadoes often occur at night, when people are not as alert to tornadoes as during the day. Contrary to claims of some, late season tornadoes are not the result of global warming. See this week’s Saturday Summary, https://www.weatherbell.com/

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Number of the Week – 15 States: In an essay about the problems with implementing the goals of COP 26, Francis Menton writes that the treasurers of 15 states wrote the US banking industry they will protest banks that cut-off funds to coal and oil industries by withdrawing all state funds in those banks. See link under Change in US Administrations.

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Censorship

Facebook’s Legal Admission That Its ‘Fact Checks’ Are Not Factual at All

By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Dec 9, 2021

Link to legal filing: Case 5:21-cv-07385-VKD Document 27 Filed 11/29/21

United States District Court, Northern District of California, Stossel v. Facebook, Inc.

EMails: Facebook Sics its “Independent Fact Checker” on Disfavored Speech

By Staff, Government Accountability and Oversitht.org. Accessed Dec 9, 2021

“Facebook, Google, WaPo All Seek to Cancel Climate Realism

“Facebook alerts activist “fact-checkers” to “insanely viral” Stossel video

“Taxpayer-financed institutions assisting

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Climate Change and CO2 Not a Problem

By William Happer, CLINTEL lecture, Nov 16, 2021

With transcript and images from Feb 2021 presentation, by Ron Clutz, Via Science Matters, Dec 4, 2021

Global Warming Theory and the Tests It Fails 2021

By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Dec 7, 2021

“Securing America’s Future: Supply Chain Solutions for a Clean Energy Economy”

By Lucian Pugliaresi, President Energy Policy Research Foundation, Nov 16, 2021

For the Subcommittee on Environment and Climate Change and the Subcommittee on Energy, US House Committee on energy and Commerce

The real drivers behind the climate and a concern many of us share

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Dec 10, 2021

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/behind_the_climate/

The ever-changing climate and the blame game

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Dec 6, 2021

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/the_changing_climate/

“But then there is some good news,” Cronkite continued. “That while the weather may be just a little colder in the immediate years to come, the full extent of the new ice age won’t be reached for 10,000 years. And if you can stand any more good news, even then it won’t be as bad as the last ice age 60,000 years ago. Then New York, Cincinnati, St. Louis, were under 5,000 feet of ice. Presumably no traffic moved and school was let out for the day. And that’s the way it is, Monday, September 11, 1972.”

Climate Change? Energy Development First! (plea from Mozambique)

By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Dec 7, 2021

Turbulence, the oldest unsolved problem in physics

The flow of water through a pipe is still in many ways an unsolved problem.

By Lee Phillips, ARS Technica, Oct 10, 2018

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/turbulence-the-oldest-unsolved-problem-in-physics/

[SEPP Comment: The Navier–Stokes equations from 1822 (Navier) to 1842–1850 (Stokes).]

Defending the Orthodoxy

IPCC AR6: Global Greening, Unspun Edition

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 8, 2021

“In summary, there is high confidence that vegetation greenness (i.e., green leaf area and/or mass) has increased globally since the early 1980s. However, there is low confidence in the magnitude of this increase owing to the large range in available estimates.” [Boldface added.]

[SEPP Comment: What about the large range of estimates of CO2 influence on temperatures used by the IPCC?]

New Podcast: How can we predict climate change if we can’t forecast weather more than a week ahead? Plus, massive snow in the mountains.

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 10, 2021

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/12/new-podcast-how-can-we-predict-climate.html

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Heat, no food, deadly weather: Climate change kills seabirds

By Patrick Whittle, AP, Dec 1, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://apnews.com/article/climate-science-health-fish-oceans-88f32aedd222e54fe6713f9872e255f0

“Climate-related losses have hit albatrosses off the Hawaiian islands, northern gannets near the British Isles and puffins off the Maine coast. Some birds are less able to build nests and raise young as sea levels rise, while others are unable to find fish to eat as the ocean heats up, researchers have found.” [Boldface added]

[SEPP Comment: Sea levels have been rising for 20,000 years. Why have the birds survived so long?]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Woke Philosophy Now Threatening Science Itself

By Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris, America Out Loud, Dec 7, 2021

A Wee Problem With The First-Ever Mammal Extinction From Modern Climate Change Claim

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 6, 2021

“Civilisation is Going to Crumble”: Elon Musk Slams Overpopulation Narratives

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 7, 2021

Extinction Rebellion Update

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 9, 2021

Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2021/12/extinction-rebellion-update/

Climate Spawns Critters

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 9, 2021

Article: https://realclimatescience.com/2021/12/climate-spawns-critters/

[SEPP Comment: Amnesia is a trait common among climate experts including remembering past events and learning new ideas.]

Hip hip boo nature

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 8, 2021

“But as National Geographic allows, ‘counterintuitively, too little human intervention harms these grassland ecosystems.’”

After Paris and Cop 26!

Japan joined Glasgow but tells people at home to double oil and gas production by 2040

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 5, 2021

“From 34.7% of domestic consumption up to 60%”

[SEPP Comment: Japanese companies that own production elsewhere in the world.]

Japan Building 22 New Coal Power Plants

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 8, 2021

“It might not have occurred to the BBC, but Japan cannot simply import electricity when wind and solar are not working flat out. It has no interconnectors, and I doubt very much whether it would want to be totally reliant on Russia or China for its power.

“With the shutdown of nuclear power, Japan has little alternative to using fossil fuels, regardless of what the BBC and Saiki-San might think.”

By Ivor Williams, WUWT, Dec 12, 2021

Link to advance version of the Proposal by the President of the COP 26

Change in US Administrations

Fossil Fuel Restriction Dam Starting To Break

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 4, 2021

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2021-12-4-fossil-fuel-restriction-dam-starting-to-break

Biden signs order for federal government to achieve net-zero by 2050

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Dec 8, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/584945-biden-signs-executive-order-for-federal-government-to-achieve-net

Biden orders end to federal support of overseas coal plants: report

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Dec 10, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/585340-biden-orders-end-to-federal-support-of-overseas-coal-plants-report

Biden favors Putin’s Russia, OPEC over US energy producers

Oil has gained over 43% YTD despite falling into bear market

By Phil Flynn, Fox Business, Dec 7, 2021

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/biden-favors-putin-russia-opec

Build Back Better — How to Destroy a National Economy

By David Boleneus, American Thinker, Dec 10, 2021

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/12/build_back_better__how_to_destroy_a_national_economy.html

Kerry Calls Out Countries That Need to ‘Step Up’ on Climate Change

By Mychael Schnell, The Hill, Dec 6, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/583941-kerry-calls-out-countries-that-need-to-step-up-on-climate-change

[SEPP Comment: Demonstrating the effectiveness of the administration’s leadership by example.]

Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

Projecting biomass changes in Africa for the end of the 21st century

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 8, 2021

From: Projecting Biomass Changes in Africa for the End of the 21st Century

By Staff, CO2 Science, Mar 19, 2021

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/mar/a9.php

Problems in the Orthodoxy

India and China Set Aside Differences to Resist Carbon Imperialism

By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Dec 8, 2021

China Merges Mining Assets To Create Rare Earth Mining Giant

By ZeroHedge, Via Oil Price.com, Dec 05, 2021,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Merges-Mining-Assets-To-Create-Rare-Earth-Mining-Giant.html

Bloomberg: China and India Must Invest $21 Trillion into Green Energy

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 8, 2021

[SEPP Comment: And who will make them?]

Seeking a Common Ground

Majority Of Sources of Climate Denial Online Is Industrial Disinfo, Not Well-Meaning Morons

By Community, Climate Denier Roundup, Daily Kos, Dec 9, 2021 [H/t Gordon Fulks]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/12/9/2068359/-Majority-Of-Sources-of-Climate-Denial-Online-Is-Industrial-Disinfo-Not-Well-Meaning-Morons

[SEPP Comment: Reddit noted SEPP to be on the “list of recommended alarmist-free sites”]

‘Zombie fires’ burn despite temperatures plunging to 78 degrees below zero (minus 61 C)

Remote Siberia has been experiencing some of the coldest air on Earth in recent days, which has canceled school for some students and barely put out some of nature’s most unrelenting wildfires.

By Adam Douty, AccuWeather, Dec 7, 2021

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/zombie-fires-burn-despite-temperatures-of-75-degrees/1057997?traffic_source=Connatix

[SEPP Comment: What is the Fractional Attribution of Risk (FAR) that this event is caused by human CO2 emissions?]

Science, Policy, and Evidence

Feeling confident? Pfizer vax data is so good, FDA wants to hide it til 2096!

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 10, 2021

Models v. Observations

Global Human CO2 Emissions Have Been On A Slightly Declining Trend Since 2011

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 9, 2021

Link to most recent paper: Spatial and temporal variations in global soil respiration and their relationships with climate and land cover

By Ni Huang, et al. AAAS Science Advances, Oct 7, 2020

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abb8508

[SEPP Comment: Raises questions about comparing model results with observations without a long-term standardization period showing similar movements.]

Measurement Issues — Surface

Press Release: KNMI scrapped too many tropical days in De Bilt

By Marcel Crok, CLINTEL, Dec 7, 2021

Link to paper: Reassessment of the homogenization of daily maximum temperatures in the Netherlands since 1901

By Frans Dijkstra, et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Dec 6, 2021

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-021-03887-4

[SEPP Comment: De Bilt is one of the five stations used in the historic record by the Royal Dutch Meteorological Office (KNMI).]

Changing Weather

Natural variability in Pacific Ocean drives decade-long intensification in Pacific walker circulation

Press Release, Institute of Atmospheric, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Via WUWT, Dec 9, 2021

Link to paper: A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker Circulation in constrained near-future projections

By Mingna Wu, et al. Nature Communications, Nov 11, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26693-y

Climate Crisis AWOL: Untampered Japan Meteorological Agency Data Show No Warming In Tokyo In Decades!

By P Gosselin, Charts by Kirye, Text by Pierre, No Tricks Zone, Dec 4, 2021

1920 or 2020? Bathurst, Australia Edition

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 8, 2021

My New Northwest Weather Book: Online Book Talk and In-Person Signing This Weekend. Plus Mountain Snow!

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 8, 2021

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/12/my-new-northwest-weather-book-online.html

Major Kona Storm Hits Hawaii

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 6, 2021

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/12/major-kona-storm-hits-hawaii.html

“You should not be jealous of folks vacationing in Hawaii this week.”

Nov 1951–Exceptionally Wet, Severe Flooding, Very Mild [UK]

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 7, 2021

Nov 1951–Catastrophic Floods Hit France & Italy

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 7, 2021

Wind, Rain, Snow, Sun–A Typical British November!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 8, 2021

Changing Seas

Sentinel-6 returning most precise data ever on sea level

By Staff Writers, Paris (ESA) Dec 01, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Sentinel_6_returning_most_precise_data_ever_on_sea_level_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Will the results be properly tested against reliable data? For example, changes in geological stable tidal gauges giving a standardization period. That would be unlike what was done with earlier satellite data (processed by University of Colorado, Boulder), which apparently had a major error in its computer programs.]

Florida Gov. DeSantis proposes plan to fight rising seas without any ‘left-wing stuff’

By David Fleshler, South Florida Sun Sentinel, Dec 7, 2021 [H/t Climate Depot]

https://news.yahoo.com/florida-gov-desantis-proposes-plan-232500861.html

Melting glaciers may create new Pacific salmon habitat, study finds

By Brian P. Dunleavy, Washington DC (UPI), Dec 7, 2021

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Melting_glaciers_may_create_new_Pacific_salmon_habitat_study_finds_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Great photo of a real threat to expanding Pacific salmon populations – growing seal populations!]

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Free homeschool guide to Arctic sea ice ecology

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 28, 2021

Promoters of polar bear catastrophe in Hudson Bay gloss over recent good ice conditions

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 8, 2021

Sea Ice Data Tampering At DMI [Danish Meteorological Institute]

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 10, 2021

“There is no other way to describe this than blatant fraud. The changes do not appear to have been even documented, and the old data is not archived, being simply “replaced”. These should surely be very basic scientific requirements.

“Neither does there appear to have been any public announcement by DMI about the fact or the justifications for what amounts to a significant change.

“What this episode means is that DMI can no longer be trusted to produce honest, reliable data. It also raises the question of whether similar tampering has been carried out in previous years, without anybody being aware. After all, it is only by pure accident that it has been spotted this time.”

[SEPP Comment: More charitably, it may be from the failure to adequately test a change in the calculation process rather than an outright deceit.]

Rapidly Disappearing Ice – Part 2

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 9, 2021

Video; https://realclimatescience.com/2021/12/rapidly-disappearing-ice-part-2/

Rapidly Disappearing Arctic Ice

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 8, 2021

Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2021/12/rapidly-disappearing-arctic-ice/

[SEPP Comment: Questioning a change by DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute) in the description of sea ice graphs with the new model for 2021 starting in December showing a winter freeze much slower. Why is the fast winter freeze up trapping ships in the Artic in 2021?]

Past NSIDC Data Tampering

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 8, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/12/past-nsidc-data-tampering/

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

How the War on Fossil Fuels Will Kill People… Urea Edition

By David Middleton, WUWT, Dec 10, 2021

Climate Change causes largest ever Australian wheat crop

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 8, 2021

Lowering Standards

A Pronounced Degree of Misrepresentation

By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Dec 9, 2021 [H/t Dennis Ambler]

Researcher: More Inexpert Climate Change Reporting Required

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 11, 2021

1904: When Scientific American Still Did Science

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 8, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/12/1904-when-scientific-american-still-did-science/

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

As climate ‘net-zero’ plans grow, so do concerns from scientists

By Patrick Galey, Paris (AFP), Dec 8, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/As_climate_net-zero_plans_grow_so_do_concerns_from_scientists_999.html

“According to Net Zero Tracker (NZT), 90 percent of global GDP is now covered by some sort of net-zero plan. But it said that the vast majority remain ill-defined.”

NY Times Claims Brazil Is Turning Into Desert, As Foliage Growth Surges

By James Taylor, Climate Realism, Dec 6, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

CO2 is bad for plants

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 8, 2021

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2021/12/08/co2-is-bad-for-plants/

More tricks.

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

BBC’s Fake Hurricane Season Claim

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2021

Roger Pielke Slams New Hurricane Study

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2021

“In the old days, if they did not like the data, they adjusted it.

“Now they simply make it up:”

[SEPP Comment: A Kerry Emanuel from MIT study published in Nature Communications.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

Pielke Jr. on John Cook’s Ministry of Truthotron

By Roger Pielke Jr. Via WUWT, Dec 12, 2021

Should everyone have their own personal carbon quota?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Government officials are not exempt?]

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

Climate alarmism is doing terrible damage to the young

Young people are told their lives are over before they’ve even begun.

By Emma Gilland, Spiked, Nov 9, 2021

Study: German Youths Not Willing To Make Climate Sacrifices, Want Policymakers To Fix Problems

By AR Göhring (EIKE) (Translated/edited/condensed by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Dec 7, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Protest

Extinction Rebellion Doubles Down on Blowing Up Pipelines Threat

By William Allison, Energy in Depth, Dec 1, 2021 [H/t Paul Homewood]

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Top producer EQT backs U.S. natural gas exports, calls Warren’s criticism “misguided’

By Arunima Kumar, Reuters, Dec 7, 2021

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/top-producer-eqt-backs-us-natural-gas-exports-calls-warrens-criticism-misguided-2021-12-07/

Non-Green Jobs

Switch To EVs Puts 500,000 Jobs At Risk

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 6, 2021

“EU plan to ban combustion-engine cars by 2035 could cause mass unemployment, say companies.”

Funding Issues

Who funds Extinction Rebellion? American & UK millionaires – ‘Some of America’s most famous families, including the Kennedys & the Gettys’

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2021

[SEPP Comment: According to the Bullitt Foundation it gave a $60,000 one year grant to the Suzuki Foundation “to advance climate-friendly transportation policy and work with municipalities to value natural capital assets as infrastructure in British Columbia.” Yet, the Suzuki Foundation opposes the safest way to transport oil, pipelines.]

Litigation Issues

Energy Policy Advocates Files Suit Against State Department Seeking “Special Climate Envoy” Kerry’s Ethics, Recusal Records

By Staff, Government Accountability and Oversigtht.org. Accessed Dec 9, 2021

“Other agencies have complied re lower-ranking officials, but not for Kerry, McCarthy”

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

Fossil Fuel Subsidies Historically Considered

By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Dec 8, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Subsidies were not important in the transition from biofuels (wood and whale oil) to coal for heating and oil (kerosene) for cooking and light.]

Net-Zero Gambit Depends on Green Subsidy Gusher

By Larry Bell, Environment & Climate News, Dec 9, 2021

EPA and other Regulators on the March

EPA’s ‘environmental justice’ plan fails to address Black community needs

Instead of protecting minorities from eco-hazards, environmental justice disenfranchises them

By Derrick Hollie, Washington Times, Dec 6, 2021

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/dec/6/epas-environmental-justice-plan-fails-to-address-b/

“The EPA is proposing adding the pursuit of justice and equity as a fourth key agency principle while making environmental justice a ‘strategic goal.’ This is inherently incompatible with the agency’s three founding principles: following the science, law, and transparency…”

“Then there are the ‘trickle-down’ problems to consider. Solutions to violent crime, drug abuse, high out-of-wedlock birth rates and poor public schools cannot be remedied by addressing perceived climate conditions decades in the future or installing charging stations for luxury electric vehicles in ‘underserved’ communities.”

[SEPP Comment: Is the EPA more concerned with symbolism of ideological conformity than addressing actual problems?]

EPA proposes to hammer oil and natural gas with crazy new climate rules

By David Wojick, CFAC, Dec 10, 2021

https://www.cfact.org/2021/12/10/epa-proposes-to-hammer-oil-and-natural-gas-with-crazy-new-climate-rules/

Energy Issues – Non-US

Halliburton: Global Oil Scarcity Is On The Horizon

By Julianne Geiger, Oil Price.com, Dec 6, 2021

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Halliburton-Global-Oil-Scarcity-Is-On-The-Horizon.html

Energy dichotomy: Asian coal gains momentum as Biden undermines U.S. economy

By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Dec 11, 2021

https://co2coalition.org/2021/12/11/energy-dichotomy-asian-coal-gains-momentum-as-biden-undermines-u-s-economy/

Greece Puts Coal Power Plants Shut Down in 2019 Back Into Operation…To Avert Winter Blackouts!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 8, 2021

Energy Issues – Australia

Magic from down under

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 8, 2021

“There is a rule, long familiar to us yet we cannot now lay our hands on the original version, that if enough people of intelligence and good will have looked for something long enough in a great many places and have not found it, the chances are good that it’s not there. Which brings us to the magic plans to make gasoline, natural gas and coal unaffordable without increasing the cost of living, thus saving us all from the climate crisis without any pain.”

Energy Issues — US

For Energy Infrastructure Projects, Even Supreme Court Victories Mean Nothing

By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Dec 9, 2021

https://cei.org/blog/for-energy-infrastructure-projects-even-supreme-court-victories-mean-nothing/

Fracking our way to energy independence

Will fracking survive? Fracking Part 2: Conservation Nation

By Gaabriella Hoffman, CFACT, Dec 3, 2021

Video

ISO-NE Warns Fuel Supply Issues May Threaten Winter Power System Reliability

By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Dec 9, 2021

[SEPP Comment: A result from restricting natural gas pipelines?]

Biden’s offshore wind goal is a waste of energy

The administration’s target is a lofty thirty gigawatts of offshore wind operating by 2030

By Michael Fumento, Spectator World, Dec 8, 2021 [H/t Jim Buell]

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/joe-biden-offshore-wind-energy-physics/

Link to press release: Secretary Haaland Outlines Ambitious Offshore Wind Leasing Strategy

BOEM to potentially hold up to seven new offshore lease sales by 2025

By Staff, US Department of the Interior, Oct 13, 2021

https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/secretary-haaland-outlines-ambitious-offshore-wind-leasing-strategy

“Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland today outlined the path forward for future offshore wind leasing to meet the Biden-Harris administration’s goal to deploy 30 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind energy by 2030.”

EIA: U.S. Coal Stockpiles Lowest Since 1978

By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Dec 7, 2021

Youngkin says he will withdraw Virginia from regional carbon initiative

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Dec 9, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/585120-virginia-governor-elect-says-he-will-exit-regional-carbon

Washington’s Control of Energy

Limiting U.S. Crude Exports Would Be a Holiday Gift to Foreign Nations

By Mike Sommers, Real Clear Energy, Dec 6, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/12/06/limiting_us_crude_exports_would_be_a_holiday_gift_to_foreign_nations_806617.html

Is It Finally Goodbye for Incandescent Light Bulbs—and Consumer Choice?

By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Dec 8, 2021

https://cei.org/blog/is-it-finally-goodbye-for-incandescent-light-bulbs-and-consumer-choice/

Watchdog: Interior wastes resources on land never leased for drilling

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Dec 10, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/585304-watchdog-interior-wastes-resources-on-land-never-leased-for

Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences

Overcoming the Top Three Hurdles to Eliminate Flaring

By Billy Morley, Power Mag, Dec 9, 2021

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

US wind braces for higher prices, slower growth as inflation pain spreads

By Neil Ford, Reuters, Dec 8, 2021

https://www.reutersevents.com/renewables/wind/us-wind-braces-higher-prices-slower-growth-inflation-pain-spreads?utm_campaign=NEP%20WIN%2008DEC21%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

Soaring UK wind goals hasten need for storage reward model

By Neil Ford, Reuters, Dec 8, 2021

https://www.reutersevents.com/renewables/wind/soaring-uk-wind-goals-hasten-need-storage-reward-model?utm_campaign=NEP%20WIN%2008DEC21%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua

“Potential electrical technologies include compressed air storage (CAES), liquid air storage (LAES) and gravity-based storage. Thermal heat storage would include molten salt-based systems, such as the pumped heat storage system developed by Malta, or Siemens Gamesa’s ETES system that uses electricity to heat volcanic stones to temperatures of 800 degrees C. On December 1, Malta announced it had partnered with Bechtel, a large US engineering and construction group, to deploy its technology.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Scientists identify another reason why batteries can’t charge in minutes

By Staff Writers, Lemont IL (SPX), Dec 06, 2021

https://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Scientists_identify_another_reason_why_batteries_cant_charge_in_minutes_999.html

Link to paper: Increased Disorder at Graphite Particle Edges Revealed by Multi-length Scale Characterization of Anodes from Fast-Charged Lithium-Ion Cells

By Saran Pidaparthy, et al. Journal of The Electrochemical Society, Oct 8, 2021

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1149/1945-7111/ac2a7f

Carbon Schemes

Friday Funny: That Giant Sucking Sound – CO2 Edition

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 10, 2021

The Case for Carbon Capture at Existing Power Plants

By David T. Stevenson, Real Clear Energy, Dec 6, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/12/06/the_case_for_carbon_capture_at_existing_power_plants_806631.html

Oh Mann!

Mouse Squeaks at Lion

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Dec 10, 2021

Other Scientific News

Gas bubbles in rock pores – a nursery for life on Early Earth

By Staff Writers, Munich, Germany (SPX), Dec 08, 2021

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Gas_bubbles_in_rock_pores___a_nursery_for_life_on_Early_Earth_999.html

Link to paper: Non-equilibrium conditions inside rock pores drive fission, maintenance and selection of coacervate protocells

By Alan Ianeselli, et al. Nature Chemistry, Dec 6, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41557-021-00830-y

[SEPP Comment: The beginning of cells?]

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

End-of-World Apocalypse Cult makes “Black Box” to record climate crash

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 8, 2021

If this is victory…

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 8, 2021

“The Daily Telegraph highlights a supposed victory in the war on climate heating also trumpeted by the New York Times. ‘A Japanese town is recycling used adult diapers by turning them into small pellets that can be used as fuel’ which is a big deal because diapers ‘swell by up to four times their original size once used, requiring large amounts of energy to incinerate them. This leads to excess carbon emissions and high fuel costs.’”

Biden To Eliminate Carbon Soon

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 9, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/12/biden-to-eliminate-carbon-soon/

John Cook: “Machine learning holds a key to combating [climate] misinformation”

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 8, 2021

Oh, that’s the problem, of course

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 8, 2021

“The over-representation of white men in climate change decision-making processes is stifling for both the imagination and the implementation of transformative solutions.”

Rain Caused Volcano to Erupt… Because Climate Change?

By David Middleton, WUWT, Dec 9, 2021

Link to article: Equilibrium/Sustainability — Volcanic eruption triggered by heavy rains

By Sharon Udasin and Saul Elbein, The Hill, Dec 7, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/584770-equilibrium-sustainability

“They cite ‘the conversation’ as their authority.”

The Rise of Climate Terrorism

By Robert Hefner, Real Clear Energy, Dec 8, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/12/08/the_rise_of_climate_terrorism_806961.html

ARTICLES

1. Climate Change Data Deluge Has Scientists Scrambling for Solutions

As earth-observing satellites, aircraft and ocean buoys churn out ever-rising amounts of information about our planet, data managers turn to cloud computing and artificial intelligence

By Robert Lee Hotz, WSJ, Dec 5, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-data-deluge-has-scientists-scrambling-for-solutions-11638720016?mod=business_minor_pos8

“Climate change calculations are becoming more than existing supercomputers can handle. The three-year-old Cheyenne supercomputer at the Wyoming Supercomputer Center operated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Cheyenne, Wyo., pictured here, is being replaced by a $40 million computer that is 3.5 times faster.”

[SEPP Comment: It is not the extent of the data or how fast the computer is that matters. It is how well is the data used that matters.]

2. Look at Build Back Better’s Benefits, Not Its Price Tag

The media loves to focus on a big number, but the bill is paid for and delivers for the American people.

By Alan S. Blinder, WSJ, Dec. 5, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/look-at-build-back-betters-benefits-not-price-tag-federal-budget-bbb-reconciliation-debt-cbo-11638718325?mod=hp_opin_pos_6#cxrecs_s

“The House bill includes several real winners. Do you oppose universal pre-K education? You shouldn’t; it works. Are you against more-affordable child care? Not many Americans are. Do you think we should ignore global climate change? If so, think again.”

Ken Haapala’s comment in the WSJ:

“Mr Blinder asks: “Do you think we should ignore global climate change? If so, think again.”

“After spending years studying climate change and the greenhouse effect, I once said Washington does not understand global climate change and here is the physical evidence. The atmosphere is warming very slowly.

“Now I can say carbon dioxide will not cause significant global warming even if China, India, and other countries double it. Here is the physical evidence from 40 years of atmospheric measurements of the greenhouse effect.

“Yet, Washington ignores the space age evidence. Perhaps Mr. Blinder claiming we need to support the big spending bill to oppose global climate change provides the clue to understanding why Washington ignores the physical evidence that human carbon dioxide emissions are a bit player in climate change.”

3. Stupid Inflation Tricks, Round 2

An energy executive instructs Sen. Warren on natural gas prices and CO2 emissions.

By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Dec 8, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stupid-inflation-tricks-round-2-elizabeth-warren-toby-rice-eqt-energy-prices-natural-gas-11638990465?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

TWTW Summary: The editorial begins by stating that two days before Thanksgiving Elizabeth Warren sent a letter berating major US oil and gas producers for putting their interests ahead of Americans. CEO Toy Rice of EQT Crop., the largest US natural gas producer responded. After discussing that before the shale gas boom, natural gas prices ranged between $6 to $13 per thousand cubic feet and in 202 they were the lowest in over two decades, the editorial quotes Mr. Rice:

“‘Yes, the price of natural gas has increased rapidly relative to 2020 as the economic engines of the world have reignited, but natural gas prices in 2020 were the lowest in over two decades, a year during which we exported LNG,’ he writes.

“U.S. LNG exports have been increasing rapidly since 2015 and doubled in the last two years due to rising global demand for the fuel to replace coal. But LNG exports still account for only about 10% of U.S. production. Prices are lower than during most of President Obama’s first term when LNG exports were basically nonexistent.

“Exports have encouraged more production, which has helped keep prices low for Americans. Lower gas prices have filtered through to consumers in lower electricity rates and have offset the steep cost of integrating solar and wind into the electricity grid. Americans would be paying much more for electricity today without the past decade’s boom in shale hydraulic fracturing.

“LNG exports are also reducing global CO2 emissions. Mr. Rice calculates that switching from coal to gas power in the U.S. has reduced CO2 emissions by the equivalent of electrifying 190 million cars, or roughly 70% of the total number of cars in the U.S. Unlike electric vehicles, natural gas doesn’t require hundreds of billions of dollars in government subsidies.

“‘The United States has a vast amount of natural gas, more than any other country in the world,’ Mr. Rice concludes. ‘To best address climate change, it is incumbent on countries like the United States to produce more natural gas that can be used by other countries.’ If the U.S. doesn’t, Vladimir Putin has made clear that Russia will, increasing his energy leverage over Europe.

“Natural gas prices have increased this year because supply hasn’t kept up with demand. The Democratic tax-and-regulatory onslaught on fossil fuels and pressure from progressive investors have persuaded some producers to restrain output and return profits to shareholders rather than invest in expanding supply.”

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Joseph Zorzin
December 13, 2021 3:39 am

“At the recently completed 26th Conference of Parties in Glasgow by the UN, China, India, and other eastern Asian countries did not even give lip service to western demands to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. They realize what a great benefit fossil fuels are in providing much cleaner heating than traditional fuels such as wood and dung. Further, they realize how critical reliable, affordable electricity is for operating a modern economy”

And it’s critical to avoid revolution.

bonbon
December 13, 2021 6:11 am

From the lead :
However, when we analysed the barometric temperature profiles of the radiosondes in this paper, we were unable to detect any influence from greenhouse gases. Instead, the profiles were very well described by the thermodynamic properties of the main atmospheric gases, i.e., N 2 and O 2 , in a gravitational field.”“While water vapour is a greenhouse gas, the effects of water vapour on the temperature profile did not appear to be related to its radiative properties, but rather its different molecular structure and the latent heat released/gained by water in its gas/liquid/solid phase changes.
“For this reason, our results suggest that the magnitude of the greenhouse effect is very small, perhaps negligible. At any rate, its magnitude appears to be too small to be detected from the archived radiosonde data Pg. 18 of referenced research paper.” [not shown]

Now that sounds very much like Nikolov and Zeller’s observation.

https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/01/17/nikolov-zeller-reply-to-dr-roy-spencers-blog-article/

And the radiate reference exactly Einstein’s 1917 observation. What is interesting is that Happer’s radiative observations do not contradict thermodynamics.
Einstein’s 1917 “The Quantum Theory of Radiation” looks closely at this.

https://inspirehep.net/files/9e9ac9d1e25878322fe8876fdc8aa08d

Schrodinger's Cat
December 13, 2021 6:24 am

Climate scientists think that increasing CO2 will lead to increasing warming and there is a danger that other potent greenhouse gases will cause even more warming. They are wrong.

Most of the warming during the last 150 years is almost certainly due to us coming out of the Little Ice Age. As well as getting attribution wrong, the climate scientists have made a number of serious errors.

Greenhouse gases share to a substantial extent the same IR absorbance bands as water vapour. Millions of years ago, when the oceans and atmosphere began to form, water vapour is thought to have raised the temperature of the planet to the comfortable level that supports life. Today, these IR absorbance bands are saturated.by water vapour. Other greenhouse gases like CO2 and methane have almost negligible effect. It is true that they would have a potent GHG effect individually with “virgin” absorbance bands but that is not the situation that we are in. A high abundancy of water vapour got there first. The greenhouse effect is and always will be minimal.

Happer and others have used HITRAN to show that this is the case. Climate scientists and their supporters are now in denial. The science is clear, they got it wrong.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Schrodinger's Cat
December 13, 2021 8:35 am

Happer/Clutz’s repro graph (a Modtran output) shows the doubling of CO2 results in 3 watts difference. It would be better if they stated that this results in a fraction of the a IPCC’s stated ECS instead of immediately declaring it “almost no difference”. Such a blanket statement plays into the hands of the climate crazies. You need some of the climate crazies to run Modtran themselves.

Reply to  DMacKenzie
December 13, 2021 9:48 am

But it is not a “fraction” of the IPCC’s ECS. The difference is just 3.7 vs. 3W/m2, excluding feedbacks.

Dave Fair
Reply to  E. Schaffer
December 13, 2021 5:12 pm

I believe Dr. Happer’s is a net measured result, not the average 3X assumed in CliSciFi. I am not, however, competent enough in atmospheric physics to have an independent opinion; all I can do is quote people that I trust.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Schrodinger's Cat
December 13, 2021 5:02 pm

Cat, your “Other greenhouse gases like CO2 and methane have almost negligible effect.” ignores the huge divot in Happer’s radiative graph caused by CO2 in the emissions profile at TOA. While H2O is the major GHG, CO2 provides about 25% of the effect, IIRC.

Given the current atmospheric concentrations of the various gasses, I believe recent studies show that even relatively large increases in CO2 concentrations at the margin will have minimal potential effect on the Earth’s radiation balance. I’m not sure if your “It is true that they would have a potent GHG effect individually with “virgin” absorbance bands but that is not the situation that we are in.” is aimed at that fact.

December 13, 2021 7:45 am

If you double the amount of CO2, you don’t double the size of that gap. You just go from the black curve to the red curve, and you can barely see the difference. The gap hardly changes.

The message I want you to understand, which practically no one really understands, is that doubling CO2 makes almost no difference.

How long will it take to get this right? The orthodox 2xCO2 forcing is 3.7W/m2, the WH2021 shows it is only 3W/m2, a little less obviously. The “saturation” is identical in both cases, nothing new here. The difference is rather in accounting for the overlap between CO2 and vapor.

And that’s the tragic part. This is a rational, logical step in the right direction, but you do not realize what it is about (and apparently Happer & Wijngaarden do not seem either). It is not an isolated issue only concerning the overlap CO2/vapor, but a far more sinister blunder with the whole of climate sensitivity. There are overlaps between CO2 and clouds as well. And then of course the whole thing repeats with vapor feedback, which is massively dampened by these overlaps.

Alternatively one can point out to the “single factor addition” vs. “single factor removal” issue, which is about attributing the respective GHEs to the individual agents. Or call it net vs. gross. A 3.7W/m2 CO2 forcing is the gross forcing, and so is a 1.8W/m2 vapor feedback a gross feedback. What actually matters however are the net effects, and they are much smaller. In the example above, by allowing for just one specific overlap, it drops from 3.7 to 3W/m2. But there are way more overlaps and the difference between gross and net are far larger. Even surface emissivity does play into it.

Net 2xCO2 is only about 2W/m2, net vapor feedback only about 0.65W/m2. And that IS the total game changer.

https://greenhousedefect.com/the-holy-grail-of-ecs/a-total-synthesis-the-ecs-estimate

Dave Fair
Reply to  E. Schaffer
December 13, 2021 5:18 pm

Its interesting that that you think Happer & Wijngaarden “do not realize what it is about.” I’ll go with them, though.

Reply to  Dave Fair
December 13, 2021 5:44 pm

You will still have to make a choice – believe Happers spoken words, or his written papers. HW2021 suggests an ECS of 2.3K, not <1K.

And of course they do not understand.

eyesonu
December 13, 2021 7:57 am

Global Warming Theory and the Tests It Fails 2021
By Ron Clutz,

I read this and is well presented and informative. https://rclutz.com/2021/12/07/global-warming-theory-and-the-tests-it-fails-2021/

The transcript of Happer is also an excellent read.
Climate Change and CO2 Not a Problem
By William Happer, CLINTEL lecture, Nov 16, 2021
With transcript and images from Feb 2021 presentation, by Ron Clutz, Via Science Matters, Dec 4, 2021 https://rclutz.com/2021/12/04/climate-change-and-co2-not-a-problem/

There is so much information and knowledge offered in the weekly feature of TWTW that reading and then commenting takes me a couple of days even when I have time to spare.

Alan Robertson
December 13, 2021 8:54 am

“…the effectiveness of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas is lost at the current concentrations. In fact, the effectiveness is lost at concentrations well below the concentrations required for many living plants.”

That’s quite a statement.

griff
December 13, 2021 10:00 am

Contrary to claims of some, late season tornadoes are not the result of global warming..’

Oh yes these ones are.

Reply to  griff
December 13, 2021 12:07 pm

No, they aren’t, because the tornadoes origin were cold sharing air masses.

Mike Edwards
Reply to  griff
December 13, 2021 2:38 pm

Oh yes these ones are.”

Care to provide some substantiation of that glib claim?

Have you looked at the known history of violent tornadoes in the USA? Did you know that there have been numerous previous outbreaks of violent tornadoes in the USA in the winter months, including December. What makes the recent outbreak so different?

If “global warming” is supposedly causing more violent tornadoes, how come that the numbers of violent tornadoes appear to be declining when viewed on a historical basis?

Dave Fair
Reply to  griff
December 13, 2021 5:27 pm

Griff, exactly what is difference in the causative agents for these late season tornadoes from the causative agents of previous late season tornadoes? Saying “climate change” doesn’t cut it in the absence of a physical description of the two different causative agents.

Others’ have postulated colliding cold and warm air masses as the causative agents in both cases. The lack of an increasing trend in major tornados in the face of a mildly warming CONUS would tend to support their analyses. Again, what is your analysis?

Last edited 1 month ago by Dave Fair
December 13, 2021 10:54 am

Paul Homewood and Tony Heller are of course misrepresenting the DMI’s updated Arctic sea ice thickness and volume data. Here’s an extract from their Polar Portal web site:

New graphics December 7, 2021

We have improved the DMI operational ocean and sea-ice model HYCOM-CICE with higher horizontal resolution and updated HYCOM and CICE code. In particular, the sea ice code has been greatly improved with meltponds, sea-ice salinity, improved thermodynamics and much more. The freshwater discharge from Greenland has also been greatly improved

etc. etc.

Mickey Reno
December 13, 2021 11:13 am

Prices will necessarily skyrocket. LOVELY THOUGHT you anit-frackin’ Marxist.

Mike Edwards
December 13, 2021 2:28 pm

“The message I want you to understand, which practically no one really understands, is that doubling CO2 makes almost no difference.”

Well, it seems to me that Clutz didn’t bother reading the Wijngaarden & Happer paper, where they did the calculations for a doubling of CO2 concentration for clear sky conditions and got a figure of 1.4C for the increase in global average temperature, without any changes in H2O concentration. I wouldn’t call that “almost no difference”.

OK, 2/3rds of the Earth atmosphere is cloudy and the Happer paper does not apply to those areas. Then again, there are no straightforward calculations for the effect of doubling the CO2 concentration for those regions, so the best we can say there is “we don’t really know”.

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