Dr. Susan Crockford
Although it may take until the end of the month for all Western and Southern Hudson Bay bears (except for pregnant females) to have returned to the ice, freeze-up has finally begun in earnest and today some bears are already heading out to resume feeding before winter sets in. This is 3.5 weeks later than last year when WH bears were first spotted have killed a seal on 31 October.
Compared to two days ago, there is now abundant ice along the western shore of Hudson Bay, both in the north and the south:
The ice near shore is heavily buckled by tides and wind, making it thicker than it would be otherwise, courtesy the Explore.org live cam:
Here’s another view of the ice with two bears on it (taken from quite a distance, hence the blurry photo):
This ice is even showing up on the larger format CIS chart:
A polar bear can swim across Hudson Bay.
I recently saw a report of a polar bear taking down reindeer. The seals may be relieved but Santa is probably pissed.
The report of that incident that I read, used it as proof that globull warming was worse than we thought
Of course. It’s not like an opportunistic apex predator will take prey wherever it finds it, right?
How many months of the year do the bears feed and how many do they rely on their stored fat? Is it that once the Bay and other waters freeze up the bears start fasting, much like other bears that den up in winter and hibernate?
Was so worried since polar bears are unable to adapt to different scenarios. The survive for another season !
Seriously ….that is a lot of ice to form in 48 hours!
It really doesn’t form that fast, what happens is that slush starts to form over a large area and a change in wind direction makes it accumulate / compact along a shoreline. In Lakes Michigan and Superior you can actually go from dispersed floating slush to 3-4 foot ice bergs over night when the conditions are right.
Still no ice free Arctic, eh? And ships by the two dozen stuck in the ice. It just isn’t going as modelled, is it?
David Viner update:
“Staff at a pub cut off by snow held a karaoke evening last night as guests were unable to escape for a third night. On Friday, 61 people became trapped in the Tan Hill Inn in the Yorkshire Dales as a result of heavy snowfall during Storm Arwen, but some claimed they “don’t want to leave” after enjoying the 17th-century hotel’s hospitality.”
Storm Arwen: Guests trapped in Britain’s highest pub for third night | ITV News Calendar
These people know what snow is.
Yeah, but they’re not children so it doesn’t count 😉
I bet one or two were young when Viner made the claim
Oh, they will lock the children down so they won’t see the snow to sustain Viner’s forecast. That’s how climate science works.
Well it is 1700′ above sea level.
“Snow blankets Britain as far south as Hampshire on coldest night so far with temperatures plunging to -10C before new week brings the Big Thaw after the blizzards of Storm Arwen“
Snow blankets Britain as far south as Hampshire ahead of the coldest night of winter so far | Daily Mail Online
Would you like a map, Phil?
Maybe this picture will help Phil understand that it isn’t business as usual.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10250997/UK-set-snow-freezing-conditions.html
No that’s not necessary, I’m well aware where N Yorkshire is, apparently you might need one though. As Viner said: “Heavy snow will return occasionally, but when it does we will be unprepared. We’re really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time.”
So? Viner said there would be no snow at all.
No he did not.
Yeah, he did.
On Sunday Burnley versus Tottenham Hotspurs was postponed due to snow.
That’s near to sea level.
Burnley v Tottenham called off because of snow from Storm Arwen – BBC Sport
Burnley’s surrounded by the Pennines and is about 160 miles north of London.
That’s just north of London, isn’t it?
Is Griff out shoveling climate change off his walkway?
A couple of hundred miles or so…
Griff, even now, has no idea what snow is.
So Viner was right?
Yes.
“Still no ice free Arctic, eh?”
Correct. We still have almost 30 years to go before the IPCC expects the Arctic region to go essentially ice free (< 1e6 km^2) for brief period in the summer.
30 years for another disappointing failure?
They cannot point to one single correct prediction.
More funding for more failure. It would be funny if it were not so expensive
They predicted Arctic sea ice would decline. It did.
They predicted the global mean temperature would increase. It did.
They predicted sea levels would rise. It did.
They predicted oceanic heat content would increase. It did.
Don’t hear what I didn’t say. I didn’t say their predictions are perfect. They aren’t and never will be. I also didn’t say that all of their predictions are right. They aren’t and never will be. But to say that not one prediction was correct is patently false.
What a dumb thing to say. Ice declining, temperature rising, sea level rising, heat content rising….these things were already happening (i.e., ongoing) when they made those predictions. That makes them observations, not predictions. Furthermore, since weather is cyclic, ANYTHING they ‘predict’ has the potential of being right 50 percent of the time.
They predicted that these trends would continue to happen then. The point is that it is easy to find predictions that are right which makes the statement “They cannot point to one single correct prediction.” false. Now I suspect this was just an off-the-cuff the statement made in manner akin to lashing out that the OP doesn’t really believe. And contrast the IPCC predictions with those from contrarians which predicted the opposite would happen that the trends would reverse. Those predictions were so astonishingly bad that they couldn’t even get the future direction of the changes right even though the past changes had been underway for decades. Would you find it acceptable if I had said not one single contrarian prediction is right?
But it’s not the contrarians’ predictions that govts are using to justify spaffing trillions of dollars up the wall. Those idiotic politicians are listening to the, “WE’LL ALL BURN TO A CRISP IN 20 YEARS!!!” predictions that some of you moronic thermageddonists are making.
Trillions (yes, trillions!) are being criminally wasted when they could have been used to bring clean water and cheap fossil fuelled energy to everyone on this planet. I regard this stupendous waste of money as a crime against humanity and that really pisses me off
Rant over.
In science, quantitative predictions matter. Math matters. Numbers matter. Their quantitative predictions have been nowhere close to reality.
Can you define “nowhere close to reality” objectively and show that each and every prediction falls below that threshold?
Can you repeat the procedure for contrarian predictions so that we can do a comparative analysis to provide further context on the matter?
Again, here’s half a century of your mob getting it wrong. Is that enough for you?
https://extinctionclock.org/
Which of the “No”‘s in that list came from the IPCC?
Nice try, but no cigar:
None, as far as I can tell, but the IPCC bases their reports on the hopelessly wrong predictions those daft “scientists” have been making, so they’re complicit in the scam.
I agree. I don’t think any of them came from the IPCC. It seems that they couldn’t even find a single prediction from the IPCC that was wrong which does not bode well for the statement made in this thread that “They cannot point to one single correct prediction.”
Here’s a prediction from the IPCC: three years ago they told us we only have twelve years left before thermal doom. Well, their prediction of climate armageddon is only 9 years away and the IPCC is looking to be hopelessly wrong with their, um, prediction.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report
The IPCC did not say we have 12 years to avoid “thermal doom” or “armageddon”. Here is what they actually said.
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf
and
2030 is 9 years away, last time I checked.
I predict the Sun will rise in the east and set in the west.
I predict the Earth will continuing rotating.
I predict the presence temperatures will continue to be less than 100 F in Texas over the next two months.
See how easy it is to make predictions on things already known to be happening?
In order for a theory to be USEFUL, it must make a prediction that isn’t already happening so that the prediction can be validated. AGW has predicted…Arctic Ice gone by 2012, and 1025, and etc. Our children will never know snow. Seas will rise by 20 meters within 100 years (now only 80 years away). Food production will fail. The Antarctic ice will melt. Greenland ice will melt. Etc. etc.
It must not be that easy because contrarians keep predicting the opposite of what is actually happening. The climate is cyclical on decadal timescales and we should expect reversal of trends frequently they say.
Can you point me to the location in any of the IPCC literature where they predicted “Arctic ice gone by 2012” and “Seas will rise by 20 meters within 100 years”? I’d like to review those materials if you don’t mind.
All the things you listed were already happening before industrialisation.
Sea ice was not declining prior to industrialization. In fact, many sea ice reconstructions show Arctic sea ice peaking in the 1960’s or 1970’s. Remember, that is one the contrarian talking points. That is the satellite era tracking coincides with the peak of extents and that what we are witnessing is but a cyclical decline that should have already reversed. The easy prediction, so say contrarians, is for a reversal and the bold prediction is for status quo with. Climate scientists made the bold prediction which is consistent with observations.
you are happy to repeat bollox??
How come the vikings were in Greenland farming?
MWP is suggested was considerably warmer than today, but you keep pushing this AGW shit over years like 1960 and 1970, and giving us more bollox about satellites.
The Romans grew wine grapes near Scotland in the 1st century, Herculanum was on the sea as a port, it’s nowhere near now..- stick that in your pipe and smoke it!
I think you have me confused with someone else. I’ve not challenged the MWP, the years 1960 and 1970, that vikings were farming in Greenland, or that Romans grew grapes near Scotland in the 1st century.
So you admit the climate has been warmer in the past and the current temps are nothing to worry about. Welcome to the sceptics camp!
Of course the global mean temperature has been warmer in the past. That’s what all the evidence says. It’s just been a really long time since that happened. The last time it was warmer on a global scale was possibly during the Holocene Climate Optimum about 6500 years ago and with more confidence we can say the last interglacial period about 125,000 years ago. Don’t hear what I didn’t say. I didn’t say the MWP didn’t happen. It did and probably due to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation transporting heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic region. But the abundance of evidence says that the elevated temperatures during this era were primarily focused on the North Atlantic region.
But now of course, the current warming that is well within the bounds of natural variability is suddenly all because of our see-oh-toos.
Beyond daft.
The current warming is outside the bounds of natural variability. It’s not all because of CO2 though. CO2’s attribution to the total positive forcing is about 70%’ish.
thats a really stupid statement . Earth daily temps can be recorded between -85C and +70C at extremes. Most of the habited land mass experiences daily swings of 5 to 10 C CO2 has a net Zero positive forcing
No it’s not. It’s been warmer before and no doubt it will be warmer again. The rate of warming is also nothing unusual. You’ve got no proof it isn’t.
Well in Roman times grapes were not grown near Scotland, the furthest north was around Lincolnshire. Currently there are over 200 vineyards in England and Wales producing about 15 million bottles. There is even a vineyard in Scotland.
The Arctic has experienced periods when ice-cover was far lower or even absent than today, during the Holocene, for example:
https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/E08-046
Yes it has. It was very likely during the Holocene Climate Optimum and prior the Quaternary Period ice age. That doesn’t mean that every single one of the IPCC’s predictions were wrong.
Wadhams, Gore, et al predicted it would be ice free by the end of the last decade. The ice is still there. Predictions busted. Can you tell us when it will all disappear?
It’s warmed up. It has been warming since the end of the 19th century (way before anthro CO2 was allegedly controlling the temperature). What’s your point?
Sea levels have risen. They have been rising steadily for a long time at a completely boring rate of roughly 3mm/annum. What’s the panic for?
As for ocean heat content, take a trip to the Atlantic coast, wade into the water and try and stay there for an hour. Once you’ve recovered from the hypothermia (if you haven’t died) you can stop panicking about the miniscule increase in ocean hear content. You need to get some sense of proportion in your life.
We’ve had fifty years of busted predictions. Would you keep seeing a doctor who’d been making incorrect diagnoses for half a century?
https://extinctionclock.org/
Read those busted predictions and weep for your CAGW cult.
Andrew Wilkins said: “Wadhams, Gore, et al predicted it would be ice free by the end of the last decade.”
Wadhams’s official prediction from 2012 which he submitted for publication was before 2042. Why he then told The Guardian 2016 is bizarre. You’ll have to ask Wadham’s for an explanation of that.
Gore made his predictions based on a misrepresentation of Maslowski’s work. Furthermore, Gore never submitted his prediction for publication in a peer reviewed journal. You’ll have to ask Gore for explanation of what happened there.
Neither of these sub 2020 predictions were considered by the IPCC because neither have any merit.
Andrew Wilkins said: “Read those busted predictions and weep for your CAGW cult.”
Did any of them come from the IPCC?
And I think you have me confused with someone else. I’m not a member of the “CAGW cult”. I’m not even sure what that is, who is in it, or how to be in it.
Nah, you’re a fully signed up member of the cult. How does that Kool Aid taste?
You definitely have me confused with someone else. I don’t even know what the “C” in “CAGW” means. I’ve asked several times on various forums and no one will ever define what level of warming is considered catastrophic. I checked the IPCC AR5 report and there is no mention of CAGW. And the word “catastrophic” is only used a few times none of which are in the context of AGW. Do you want to take a crack at putting a level of warming on that? Is it 10C per 2xCO2, 8C per 2xCO2, or something else?
I don’t have to put a level on it as it’s not me claiming there is an impending catastrophe. There isn’t.
However, it’s your climate cult that is predicting global catastrophe. If you admit there is no catastrophe being brought about because of AGW we’ve got nothing to worry about, have we?
Neither I nor the IPCC are claiming it is catastrophic.
So why comment here? There are many mainstream media outlets you could be telling that their interpretation of the IPCC is wrong and that catastrophe is not a threat. Go on. give us some quotes of where you have. Oh and there are some curious recent (as in IIRC late 1800′) records of low ice conditions in the Arctic, and as I recall some confirmation from NZ bog-pollens (I vaguely recall) that some of the records conveniently disregarded as merely local, weren’t.
I comment here because I’m interested in the science of climate change, I want to learn more about it, I want over people to be interested, and I want other people to learn more about it as well. Here is a recent quote of mine demonstrating that I do not accept baseless alarmist predictions anymore than I accept baseless contrarian predictions. “I absolutely repudiate Al Gore. His predictions are frequently baseless and erroneously alarmist. Quite frankly…many of them are just stupid.”
So, no catastrophe means nothing to worry about. Hence the CO2 levels are absolutely nothing to worry about. Glad you agree with us sceptics.
Are you kidding?
The UN Chief says getting to 1.5C is going to be devastating to the Earth. What did he call it, “Code Red”? It sounds like he is pointing to a coming catastrophe to me.
Actually you are confused.
lets look at each of the failed claims in more detail
They predicted Arctic sea ice AREA and MASS would decline to a point where there was NO LONGER SUMMER ICE:
100% Fail. We all knew the extents at the beginning of the Satellite era were high due to the cyclical nature of Arctic sea ice and very cold 60-70s
They predicted the global mean (AVERAGE) temperature would increase. There is NO SUCH THING as Global Mean Temperature. Its an idiotic concept. Land vs. Air vs. Water cannot be averaged and they are are poorly measured. On earth the temp ranges between -85C and +70C . Making up a number that has no real scientific value is stupid. And to support that claim the Temp records were manipulated. FAIL>>>
They predicted sea levels would rise.- Really? Where exactly did it RISE? In some locations the Sea has been Rising for all of modern records starting in late 1800s at about 1 foot per century. Many locations exhibit Sea Level decline. FAIL
They predicted oceanic heat content would increase. FAIL – It is unscientific to make this claim. 1850 to early 1900 a few sailors tossed buckets over the side and measured temps of surface water. Then we started using Ship intake from below surface and inline measurements. now we use specialized bouys that dive down to depths never measured consistently until recent 20 years ARGO … This is yet another spurious unscientific moronic claim.
4 for 4 False and Failed predictions.
They predicted an ice age in the early 70’s. It didn’t.
By then we will we be 41 years past their earlier predictions, and still 30 years from their new predictions, Sometime in the next million years they may be right,
2050 is their earliest prediction. The IPCC has a history of being too conservative with Arctic sea ice decline predictions as it is. For example, in 2001 they predicted that the annual mean extent would not drop below 10.5e6 km^2 until 2040. It first happened in 2007 and 7 more times after that including the last 5 years in a row. And even if 2021 ends strong with extents well above average for December (unlikely) we’ll still end the year below 10.5e6 km^2 extending the streak to 6 years in a row.
The IPCC is not the only body making predictions. Many people believed the predictions made by Al Gore in his Inconvenient Truth film. People believed that summer sea ice would be gone by 2015, that there would be 50 million climate refugees by 2014, and that many low-lying islands would disappear. I would like to see people like you repudiating Al Gore’s statements. Not going to happen is it?
Andrew Dickens said: “I would like to see people like you repudiating Al Gore’s statements. Not going to happen is it?”
Yes it is. I absolutely repudiate Al Gore. His predictions are frequently baseless and erroneously alarmist. Quite frankly…many of them are just stupid.
Do you repudiate all the other warmunista predictions that have been hopelessly wrong for the last 50 years? (Be careful, you’ll be repudiating quite a lot of climate scientists and most of the world’s media).
I repudiate anyone that makes baseless predictions even if they end up being true by accident. This includes predictions of 20m sea level rise by 2100, an ice free Arctic summer prior to 2020, that children won’t know what snow is within a few years, and countless other ridiculous predictions that the IPCC has never made.
I’ll even repudiate the IPCC when they make mistakes like when they predicted Himalayan glaciers would be gone 2035. Even though this was a typo (the actual prediction was said to be 2350), I’m cutting them no slack because even that 2350 prediction could not be vetted to the standards the IPCC expects. I’ll give them praise for fixing the mistake though just like I’ll give praise to anyone who admits their prediction was wrong and recalibrates their position on the matter.
“Typo”
I think you mean a hopeless attempt at back peddling.
I definitely meant typo. See Kotlyakov 1996 for details.
And that drop in ice cover is well within the bounds of natural variability, so what’s there to get worried about?
The evidence suggests that Arctic sea ice declines are outside the bounds of natural variability even over a hundred to thousand year timescale. See Kinnard et al. 2011 for details.
No, they’re not.
Why not use the accepted scientific term for sea ice, that is Wadham(s)?
Less than 1 Wadham is the proposed meaning of “ice free.”
I thought the Wadham scale was units of insanity
The accepted scientific terms for Arctic sea ice tracking are extent, area, and volume with the units being km2, km2, and km3 respectively. That’s what I use.
oh the horror!! A brief period of no sea ice above 70N where no one lives.
It doesn’t sound horrifying or even scary to me. That’s pretty subjective though so to each his own I guess.
So, nothing to worry about. Glad you agree with all us sceptics. You better not let your fellow CAGW cult members hear you admit you agree with us – you’ll get cancelled.
Maslowski and Wadhams (two “experts”) predicted a seasonally ice-free Arctic before 2020.
Don’t forget Al Gore. I think his date was 2013.
Here are the peer reviewed works concerning the Masklowski prediction and the Wadham’s prediction.
Note that Maslowski did not predict an Arctic ice free summer prior to 2020. The 2016 figure in the publication above comes from a model which Maslowski criticizes for its simplicity. He states that “The above overview of model predictions (i.e., produced by GCM scenario simulations) and projections (i.e., resulting from the synthesis of GCM output with observations of sea ice) of a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean and their limitations leads to an important conclusion. It suggests a great need for improved understanding and model representation of physical processes and interactions specific to polar regions that currently might not be fully accounted for or are missing in GCMs. The remaining sections of this review are primarily focused on addressing those issues.” He then goes into detail on present modeling limitations and biases and then presents the RASM model which he hopes will produce more realistic Arctic sea ice decline simulations. No actual prediction was given by Maslowski in this publication. Al Gore and the media took Maslowski’s work out of context.
And you can see from the Wadham publication that his official prediction is as stated in 2012: “The trend towards smaller areas in summer, which reached a temporary peak in 2007, will resume, and will lead to an ice-free summer Arctic in less than 30 years.” but did tell The Guardian in the same year “This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates.” This is really unprofessional of him. He says one thing in a peer reviewed publication and something significantly different in a newspaper interview. His 2042 prediction would have already been among the most aggressive in the scientific community, but 2016 is laughably stupid and not supported by the evidence even the evidence he himself provides in a peer reviewed paper. He definitely has egg on his face for that debacle.
Get out of town. They predicted back in 2005 that the Arctic would be ice free by 2015. We don’t have short memories around here.
If I had been there for Karaoke, I would have replaced the lyrics for Johnny Cash’s song”Burning Ball of Fire” by Paul Shanklin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OD0jeBhCjz0
The Chukchi Sea has frozen over completely. Now the Bering Sea is freezing fast.
This is a different situation than in previous years.
Partly depends on what part of the Arctic that the summer ice was pushed into I suppose
Is there a relationship between where ice forms and La Nino/La Nina cycles?
It is likely that La Niña is influencing this situation. But mostly the stratospheric circulation and the eastern QBO.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/11/30/deep-freeze-in-arctic-europe-sends-power-prices-soaring/
Circulation in the stratosphere will now cause temperatures to drop over Hudson Bay as ozone from over Alaska moves over northern Canada.
I thought ozone was a greenhouse gas?
Maybe this is why arctic is warming faster haha
Ozone is a greenhouse gas, but in the stratosphere.
The ozone appears to be creating the bulge southward in the jet stream. Is this being driven by magnetic forces, or the mass, or both?
Meanwhile, it looks like most of the U.S. will have mild temperatures as the jet stream is north of most of us. As long as you are south of the jet stream, you will have mild weather.
Waiting for the next dip in the jet stream to come our way. It’s coming, you can be sure of that.
It looks like the jet stream has opened the door to cold weather in the UK.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-74.30,50.51,264
Tom, as you can see, ozone causes a bulge in the tropopause.
The role of ozone concentrations in the stratosphere is to modulate the circulation pattern of the polar vortex.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/12/01/2300Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-73.62,69.15,419
Jetstream forecast.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/12/01/2300Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-85.94,49.10,665
Your posts are reminiscent of Ren’s. Have you taken over for him, or are you the same person?
I REN eusz
That is what I thought too … note iRENeusz
It’s probably good for them, they might be getting tired of eating Reindeer:
https://sports.yahoo.com/rare-video-polar-bears-hunting-choice-alarming-theory-102824180-160644889.html
The polar bear can use its swimming abilities.
Rhs,
The polar bears probably prefer the higher fat content of seals, much the same as Great White Sharks do! Both being apex predators, they eat whatever they want, when they want; but the results are still out on vegans!
So what is the final body count?
Surely there is some crummy/slushy ice somewhere for Griff to cling to.
Still underestimated by climatologists is the high level of galactic radiation.
Does this correlate to anything regarding weather or climate? It was getting colder in the 70’s and started warming late 70’s and early 80’s as I remember.
Most galactic radiation (at lower energies) is directed by the Earth’s magnetic field toward the poles, in accordance with the geomagnetic cutoff. Therefore, ionization of the stratosphere by the GCR is high in regions of weaker magnetic field in high latitudes. Increased air ionization in these regions must lead to local temperature increases. It is very likely that the GCR can produce not only 14C but also ozone in the stratosphere due to oxygen ionization. Temperature increases in the 50-80 degree latitude band slow down and disrupt the polar vortex.
It was getting colder from 1950 to 1980 because the negative aerosol forcing was more than the positive GHG forcing. It began warming again around 1980 because pollution mitigation was underway and reduced the aerosol forcing to near and even slightly positive.
There’s no evidence for that.
2 Week Extended Forecast in Churchill, Manitoba, Canadahttps://www.timeanddate.com/weather/canada/churchill/ext
Globally, sea ice area has increased over the last 40 years:
https://notrickszone.com/2021/11/30/nasa-data-on-global-sea-ice-area-shows-a-growth-equal-to-the-size-of-belgium-since-1982/
Has anyone ever done a study about weather polar bears suffer from the winter cold they live in? Does anyone know why polar bears don’t migrate south in winter, other than lack of food? If one were to put bear-sized dog houses out near the shore of Hudson bay, would the polar bears occupy them to stay warm and have cubs? Has anyone ever embedded an RF-transmitting thermometer (without mercury) in some meat and fed it to polar bears in winter to see if they are able to maintain a healthy if not comfortable internal temperature? Do healthy polar bears ever die of hypothermia during the winter? Why do most polar bears die? It seems a hellish life straight from Dante’s 8th plane.