The Week That Was: 2021-11-13 (November 13, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it,” – Charles Mackay [H/t I & I Editorial Board]
Number of the Week: About 20 to 25%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The Glasgow Follies are over. An agreement was signed, and pledges were made. Given the self-congratulatory attitudes of the participants amplified by a fawning press, it is difficult to determine exactly what was signed and how enforceable the claimed pledges are. For example, the governor of Hawaii urged that bolder action is needed than just “Net Zero Emissions.” Tourism is the dominant industry in Hawaii, making up over 20% of the state’s economy. To achieve below net zero, will the governor ban airline flights into Hawaii? If he does, how long will he remain governor? However, one issue seems clear, the current US administration will do what it can to damage the US oil and gas industries until voters rebel over higher energy prices.
Not wishing to speculate on what the Glasgow Follies accomplished, this TWTW will focus on a few of the glaring problems in what is called the “settled science” of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The presentations by Thomas Sheahen and Howard Hayden are emphasized. See links under After Paris, Change in US Administrations, Problems in the Orthodoxy, Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda, Washington’s Control of Energy, and Below the Bottom Line.
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Getting It Right: In “The Theory of Gravitation” in his textbook Lectures on Physics, Richard Feynman provides an outstanding example of the development of the scientific method, a process for correcting errors and advancing knowledge of the physical world. The ancients observed the movement of the visible planets and the stars and deduced that the planets went around the sun, a concept rediscovered by mathematician and astronomer Nicolaus Copernicus in the early sixteenth century. Discovering how and why took more work.
In the late sixteenth century astronomer Tycho Brahe made a remarkable step towards solving the great controversy over the movement of the planets by asserting that the controversy could be resolved by accurate measurements of the planets in the sky. To determine something about the physical world it is better to make careful observations and experiments than to engage in deep philosophical discussions. For years, Brahe studied the positions of the planets recording them in voluminous tables.
After Brahe died, between 1609 and 1619, mathematician and astronomer Johannes Kepler used Brahe’s observations to develop three laws of planetary motion: planets move in elliptical paths around the sun; they sweep out equal areas in equal times; and the squares of the periods are directly proportional to the third power of the semi-major axes.
Independently, Galileo used careful experiments to formulate the concept of inertia – if something is moving and completely undisturbed, it will continue moving in the same direction at a uniform speed. Further, Galileo used the telescope for more accurate measurement of the positions of the planets, and to discover four moons of Jupiter (which confirm Kepler’s laws, though not recognized by Galileo).
Isaac Newton used the concepts of Kepler and Galileo to develop his law of universal gravitation and his laws of motion.
Careful observations from both experiments and nature were needed to develop the laws of gravity and planetary motion.
With the space age, over the past 40 years the US and others have developed powerful tools for accurately observing and measuring what is occurring in the atmosphere. These data are widely available, and numerous research groups have participated in analysis of them.
Certain US centers for climate research, such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS) participate in that analysis effort and run large GCMs (General Circulation Models) to project the climate of the future. However, most of those large models do not utilize the measurements of the atmosphere to compare and “validate” their models using physical evidence.
Those computational models predict large temperature increases in the distant future, caused by increasing carbon dioxide (CO2). That argument assumes that an increase in water vapor (the dominant greenhouse gas) will significantly amplify the warming caused by CO2. However, actual measurements show very little warming and contradict the speculation that increasing (CO2) will cause dangerous global warming.
Also unfortunately, once respected scientific journals are refusing to publish competent papers using measurements of what is actually occurring in the atmosphere because they contradict earlier speculations that is politically popular. Such entities have abandoned the scientific method for a political fad.
In 2020 W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer submitted a paper on the “Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases” to the journal Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. The paper has been ignored.
Those physicists are experts on Atomic, Molecular, and Optical physics (AMO) and spectroscopy, the study of the interaction of electromagnetic radiation and matter (including atoms and molecules). Spectroscopy is applicable to many fields of physics, chemistry, and biology. Chemist John Tyndall started using it in 1859 to study radiative heat transfer from the Earth to find why the Earth was warm enough to support life. Tyndall coined the term “greenhouse gases”, the dominant one being water vapor. Tyndall realized that the greenhouse effect is critical for human existence, without it the land masses would be far too cold every night for plant life to grow. (Also, without carbon dioxide no plant life would exist.)
The van Wijngaarden and Happer paper relies on a comprehensive set of observations and calculations known as HITRAN, an acronym for high-resolution transmission molecular absorption, compiled under Air Force contract by the Atomic and Molecular Physics Division, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. It is a compilation of spectroscopic parameters (defining characteristics) that can be used to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of light (electromagnetic energy) in the atmosphere.
Using these data, which apply to cloudless skies, van Wijngaarden and Happer calculate the influence that increasing water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, nitrous oxide, and methane have on temperatures. The observations and calculations confirm major conclusions by Tyndall and decades of laboratory experiments. Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas, but it is not increasing significantly with a warming planet. Further, the influence of additional carbon dioxide diminishes greatly with concentrations above one hundred parts per million in volume (ppm), which is far less than that which naturally occurs. However, carbon dioxide provides roughly twenty to twenty-five percent of the total greenhouse effect. And given the existing influence of water vapor, the influences of the other gases on global temperatures are insignificant.
At the Heartland Conference, physicist Tom Sheahen reported why the paper was an outstanding example of using the scientific method to get the physics right. The authors calculated the cumulative radiation leaving the earth, calculated what is delayed in the atmosphere, the greenhouse effect, and found that that the remainder matched satellite measurements of radiation leaving the atmosphere (going into space). Further, no one has done such thorough calculations before and showed they matched observations.
Sheahen emphasized that the agreement of calculations with observations is the key factor which certifies that their computational model is correct. That’s the proper use of the scientific method. Van Wijngaarden & Happer calculated the intensity of electromagnetic radiation (infrared radiation) leaving the atmosphere above the Sahara desert (low humidity); the Mediterranean (normal humidity) representative of the temperate regions of the earth; and wintertime Antarctica. Antarctica is remarkable since the relatively warm greenhouse gases in the troposphere, [mostly CO2, O3 and H2O] radiate more to space than the thermal radiation from the cold ice surface would be through a transparent atmosphere. One can add that this is an example of the importance of convection transporting heat from the tropics to the polar regions where it is lost to space. [The temperature used in the calculations is 190 K (minus 83 C, minus 118 F)].
Sheahen underlined that agreement between theory and experiment (and observations) is THE HALLMARK of good science. The method used by van Wijngaarden and Happer (W & H) meets that criterion. Therefore, it can be trusted to make predictions about hypothetical states where the concentrations of the various gases are changed.
The model of van Wijngaarden and Happer, validated by physical evidence, was used to forecast the effects of increasing greenhouse gases on escaping radiation, which in turn affects temperatures. At current concentrations, increasing water vapor and carbon dioxide have a very small effect on temperatures; the effects are termed “saturated.” The effects of increasing the other greenhouse gases are tiny.
Consequently, their method is far superior to that used in the global climate models featured in IPCC reports (and findings by NCAR and NASA-GISS). Those models begin with totally different (and highly questionable) initial assumptions, and greatly exaggerate atmospheric temperature increases compared with actual observations.
In their paper, “Methane and Climate” discussed in last week’s TWTW, van Wijngaarden and Happer conclude: The net forcing increase from CH4, and CO2 is about 0.05 watts per meter squared per year.
“Other things being equal, this will cause a temperature increase of about 0.012 C [per] year. Proposals to place harsh restrictions on methane emissions because of warming fears are not justified by facts.”
The same applies to restrictions on CO2 emissions. The increase calculated by W & H is about the same as reported by Roy Spencer (at University of Alabama – Huntsville): assuming a linear trend, atmospheric temperature observations over oceans have been increasing by 0.12 C per decade, derived from 42 years of satellite measurements.
The W & H paper demonstrates the folly of “climate science” ignoring critical physical evidence. As long as government “climate science” ignores physical evidence and continues to be mired in the politics of “global warming” it will stagnate just as science stagnated with philosophical discussions on the movement of planets. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Follow the Science! In his talk “Yes! Follow the Science!…And You Discover That IPCC Ignores the Inconvenient Science” Howard Hayden takes the audience through logical steps and shows that the IPCC science and the global climate models used are self-contradictory. They lead to absurd conclusions. [In the talk he expresses all infrared radiation in units of thermal watts per square meter (W/m2).]
Hayden focuses on broad results, and states simple facts:
Fact 1. Heat coming from the sun equals the heat being radiated into space. (There may be a changing, but trivial imbalance.)
Fact 2: Surface radiation (infrared radiation) depends on surface temperature. There is a well-tested formula, the Stefan-Boltzmann law discussed in last week’s TWTW for this. The IPCC ignored the formula until 2021, and still does not apply it to the surface where it is absolutely necessary. The intensity of the radiation is a constant times the temperature raised to the fourth power.
Fact 3: The greenhouse effect is the difference between the heat radiated from the surface and the heat radiated into space.
It was not until the 2021 report that the IPCC recognized that the greenhouse effect is the difference between the heat radiated from the surface and the heat radiated into space. For over thirty years it has reported the results of global climate models without recognizing this important physics. Hayden’s method is to do the physics first, then do the math, not vice-versa.
The Stefan-Boltzmann law is a constraining equation for climate reality. Going outside of it becomes fantasy. The IPCC models produce imaginary results. If the surface temperature of a planet increases surface emissions must increase provided that the solar intensity and albedo (reflectivity) remain constant.
Further, the IPCC confuses the surface of a planet with the top of the atmosphere of a planet when it states, “a warmer planet radiates more energy to space.” It is only what comes off the top of the atmosphere that goes into space. Thanks to space age technology, we can now measure what comes off the top of the atmosphere.
Hayden compares the radiation from the Earth’s atmosphere with that from Venus. Many have claimed the high temperature on the surface of Venus is an example of runaway greenhouse. Indeed, the surface of Venus is far hotter than that of Earth with a temperature of 737K (867 F), capable of melting lead, compared to 289K (60.5F) for Earth. Yet the atmosphere of Venus emits less radiation to space than the atmosphere of Earth (156 W/m2, compared with 239 W/m2). This is because even though Venus gets far more intense sunlight, much of the sun’s energy is reflected by the atmosphere and does not reach the surface. The hotter surface of Venus is due to a very strong greenhouse effect from CO2, CO, SO2, and H2O at the high atmospheric pressure at the surface, ninety-three times greater than the Earth’s atmospheres.
The IPCC claims the average temperature increase from a doubling of CO2 will be 3 ºC. Using the Stefan-Boltzmann law, which the IPCC now recognizes but apparently does not understand, this would result in an increase surface radiation of 16.5 W/m2. Yet the IPCC continues to discuss “radiative forcing” as if it will be significant. Using the model and calculations advanced by van Wijngaarden and Happer, which have been tested and validated by physical evidence, Hayden shows IPCC’s “’radiative forcing’ due to CO 2 doubling of 3.7 W/m2 – is a mere 2.3% nudge with a dramatic name.”
As Hayden explains, the IPCC recognizes the Stefan-Boltzmann law, but ignores it.
“In other words, IPCC’s models have an inherent self-contradiction …… OR A DEATH SPIRAL”
And
“IPCC considers two possible ways out of this conundrum
The Modern Math Solution: 3.7 = 16.5 for very large values of 3.7, or
The Headline-Grabbing Solution: Over 4X amplification of heat! Disaster Looms!”
He concludes:
“Heat begets heat — Explains why we don’t exist
“This baked in physics-defying nonsense is the pillar of IPCC climate models
It is the source of terabytes of climate horror stories flooding the news media and – worse yet – leading science journals.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Number of the Week: About 20 to 25%. Some may assume that because the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide added by humans will have a small influence on global temperatures, the total influence of carbon dioxide is small. It is not. The greenhouse effect and CO2 itself are critical to life on this planet and to humanity. As Tom Sheahen states, using the calculations by van Wijngaarden and Happer, carbon dioxide contributes about 20 to 25% of today’s greenhouse effect. The greatest portion of the CO2 greenhouse effect occurs at concentrations below 100 ppm (parts per million volume). At such concentrations, much, if not all, of plant life would not exist.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
The Hounding of Roger Pielke Jr amid the demise of academic freedom in climate change
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 11, 2021
Link to paper: The Hounding of Roger Pielke Jr
By Donna Laframboise, GWPF, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W. A. van Wijngaarden & W. Happer Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, prepublication, Dec 22, 2020
Relative Potency of Greenhouse Molecules
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Prepublication, January 14, 2021
Tom Sheahan’s presentation: “Getting It Right”
By Thomas Sheahen, 14th International Conference on Climate Change, October 16, 2021
Howard Hayden’s Presentation: “Follow the Science: Wouldn’t it be nice if the IPCC would do so?”
By Howard Hayden, 14th International Conference on Climate Change, October 16, 2021
Our World Gone (Climate) Mad
I & I Editorial Board, Nov 9, 2021
“The world has reached a tipping point, but not the one the climate alarmists have been screeching about for more than a generation. We have entered an era in which claims without evidence are presented as unassailable fact, and much of the advanced world is buying the story.”
David Stockman: Resist the GreenMageddon, Part 5
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Nov 12, 2021
“Summary: No electricity is stored in a grid; supply must match demand at all times, or it must shut down to save itself. Climatists want to electrify everything, especially heating and cars, thereby spiking and complicating demand. Meanwhile the plan is to increase intermittent and remote wind and solar plants, making supply unpredictable. Get ready to be stuck at home, freezing in the dark. That’s GreenMageddon.”
At COP 26, Scant Mention Of Those Dying From Extreme Energy Poverty
By Robert Bryce, Forbes, Nov 12, 2021
John Robson: The self-aggrandizing hypocrisy in the COP26 Climate Death Star
By John Robson, National Post, Nov 3, 2021
Lazard Wind and Solar Costs, Part 1
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 9, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The analysts are misleading the public. The issue is not so much how much electricity costs when wind and solar generate power, but how expensive electricity is when they cannot and have cannibalized generators that are reliable. Civilization needs reliable power, not power only when nature gives it!]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Back to IPCC AR6
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 10, 2021
Australia ‘a great disappointment’ sayth Lord Deben, man who made money from windfarms
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 9, 2021
“Australians heard how disappointing we are to Lord Deben [John Gummer], who earns £1,000-a-day as chairman of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) [UK].”
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
The science everyone needs to know about climate change, in 6 charts
By Betsy Weatherhead, Atmospheric Scientist, U. Colorado, Boulder, Nov 1, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Another “atmospheric scientist” who cannot be bothered to study the atmosphere!]
Global temperatures over last 24,000 years show today’s warming ‘unprecedented’
Press Release by University of Arizona, Phys.org, Nov 10, 2021
Link to paper: Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum
By Matthew B. Osman, et al. Nature, Nov 10, 2021
Link to proxy data: Globally Resolved Surface Temperatures Since the Last Glacial Maximum
By Osman, M.B.; Tierney, J.E.; Tardif, R.; Hakim, G.J.; Poulsen, C.J., NOAA
From the abstract: “Climate model simulations and proxy data have independently allowed for study of this crucial interval; however, they have at times yielded disparate conclusions. Here, we leverage both types of information using paleoclimate data assimilation to produce the first proxy-constrained, full-field reanalysis of surface temperature change spanning the Last Glacial Maximum to present at 200-year resolution.”
[SEPP Comment: No Younger Dryas, a period of drastic cooling followed by rapid warming that took about 1300 years? The techniques must really smooth things out!]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Back to the wall
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 10, 2021
“If you’re fed up with conferences like COP26 and the endless drone from the IPCC, you’re not alone. And it’s not just people like us, either. Greta Thunberg seems to have had it, in more ways than one. Or take Naomi Oreskes… please. The woman who launched the 97% consensus ship of fools recently called for the abolition of the IPCC’s Working Group 1 because (wait for it) the science is settled, so why do more science? The Union of BC Indian Chiefs said the Glasgow ‘climate summit has been widely considered to be humanity’s ‘last chance’ for international coordination on limiting the heating of earth’s climate to fewer than 1.5 degrees Celsius and maintaining a livable planet’ so we assume it’s widely considered that there’s no point doing COP27.”
After Paris!
Presidents Xi and Putin (and the Hedge Funds!) are laughing at us
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 8, 2021
By Dominic Lawson, The Times, Nov 7, 2021:
“But Presidents Xi and Putin can at least be absolved of the charge of hypocrisy. Offstage in Glasgow the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, held talks with the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates, in which he urged Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan to ‘further increase production’ of oil — this from the official state department account of the meeting. Before flying into Glasgow, Biden himself had even mooted the idea of punishing Russia and Saudi Arabia if they didn’t increase oil output soon (‘What we’re considering doing on that, I’m reluctant to say before I have to do it’).”
Poor Nations Demand Money
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 8, 2021
From The Times: “Developed countries including the UK face a legal claim of hundreds of billions of pounds to compensate poorer nations for damage from storms and rising seas caused by climate damage.”
[SEPP Comment: As life expectancy increases in these poorer nation!]
COP26 Climate Politics: Contraction And Convergence
By Michael Kile, WUWT, Nov 9, 2021
Blah, Blah, Blah–Latest News Update
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2021
“Clearly COP26 has made huge strides again today, boldly discussing gender issues.”
[SEPP Comment: CO2 has a gender?]
Climate change: Mexican president slams COP26 ‘hypocrisy’
By Staff, Punch, Nov 4, 2021
False Imagery and Foggy Data Hallmarks of COP26
By Vijay Jayaraj, CNS, News, Nov 12, 2021 [H/t ICECAP]
“Special attention was drawn to the assertion that rising sea levels are threatening island nations by none other than Barack Obama, who incongruously has purchased a multi-million-dollar ocean front property on the New England coast.
“Catching the attention of millions was the image of a Tuvalu minister standing in knee-high sea water. But there is a problem with this: Most islands in the South Pacific nation of Tuvalu have gained surface area and are in no danger of being inundated.”
[SEPP Comment: COP is a collection center for hypocrites.]
COP26–The Stage Show
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2021
Glasgow: electricity bills will go up £500,000 extra to pay COP26’s official windfarm to turn off
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 11, 2021
Biden Is Waging Total War against American Energy
By T.R. Clancy, American Thinker, Nov 11, 2021
New China US Climate Pact: A US Technology Giveaway
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 11, 2021
India’s COP-26 promise of Net Zero by 2070 overshadowed by coal use
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, Nov 10, 2021
Seeking a Common Ground
The Next Environmental Crisis
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 11, 2021
Back to bed
News Roundup, by John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 10, 2021
[SEPP Comment: “Most people will make a complex system worse” exactly fits the IPCC. They are trying to determine the influence of CO2 by solving a weather problem which is chaotic, and therefore unpredictable. Governments only add to the problem.]
Models v. Observations
Claim: Amazon Rainforest birds’ bodies transform due to climate change
Press Release, Louisiana State University, Nov 12, 2021
Link to paper: Morphological consequences of climate change for resident birds in intact Amazonian rainforest
By Vitek Jirinec, et al. AAAS Science Advances, Nov 12, 2021
“First, we used >50 years of model-based reanalyses of climate data to quantify in situ climate trends at the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP) in Brazilian Amazonia, where birds were sampled (Fig. 1A). We found that, since 1966, mean precipitation increased by 13% in the wet season and fell by 15% in the dry season (Fig. 1B). In contrast, mean temperature increased linearly in both seasons, with temperatures increasing by 1.00°C in the wet season and 1.65°C in the dry season (Fig. 1B).”
[SEPP Comment: Uses model estimates rather than actual data? The tropics were amazingly constant during past periods of glaciation and warming.]
Changing Weather
Glasgow Is Fake…Number Of Typhoons Formed In Pacific Has Trended Downward Significantly Since 1951!
By P Gosselin, Charts by Kirye, No Tricks Zone, Nov 12, 2021
Record Snowfall in China
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 11, 2021
Major Flooding Ahead as A Strong Atmospheric River Aims at the Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 11, 2021
Paris Flood Of 1910
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 11, 2021
Back to 1920 or 2020?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 10, 2021
11/11/11
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 11, 2021
Changing Climate
Why did glacial cycles intensify a million years ago?
Researchers find clues on the bed of the Atlantic Ocean
Press Release, Earth Institute at Columbia University, Nov 8, 2021
Evidence for a Northern Hemispheric trigger of the 100,000-y glacial cyclicity
By Maayan Yehudai, et al. PNAS, Nov 16, 2021
17 More Studies Show No Unusual Warming Trend In Recent Centuries…And A Warmer Holocene
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 11, 2021
Back to the Pleistocene
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 10, 2021
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Temperature Bottom Falling Out: Antarctica’s Coldest Half-Year Since Measurements Began 60 Years Ago
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 9, 2021
A Potted History of Glaciers
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 10, 2021
Lowering Standards
Central Banks Ignore Their Mission, Push Climate Alarm
By H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, Nov 11, 2021
US Department of Defence Worries About The Weather
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 10, 2021
Link to report: Department of Defense Climate Risk Analysis
By Staff, DOD, October 2021
[SEPP Comment: Complete with gross distortion of sea level rise. Planning for a fantasy future? “Section III presents a review of climate hazards, risks, and security implications. Sections on specific regions have been identified as Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) and not releasable to the public. These sections were removed to allow this to be a publicly-releasable document. Boldface were italics in original. All checkable facts removed?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Justin Rowlatt’s [BBC] Fake Californian Wildfires Report
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 12, 2021
Guardian Winter Warmers
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2021
“Perhaps someone ought to tell the Guardian that the Maldives are now below the sea!”
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Conditions were not golden for polar bears in the 1980s despite what activist expert claims
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 9, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Sea level height based on aerobics and other gibberish published in top science journals
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 10, 2021
Link to article: Scammers impersonate guest editors to get sham papers published
By Holly Else, Nature, Nov 8, 2021
Alan Kohler: Politicians must stop lying about the cost of climate change
By Alan Kohler, New Daily, Nov 8, 2021
Google News Claims Global Warming Is Stealing the American Experience – As Temperatures Remain Flat
By James Taylor, Climate Realism, Nov 7, 2021
“Today’s Warming ‘Unprecedented’”… If you Google Hockey Sticks
By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 12, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Back to consensus
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 10, 2021
“To quote John Stuart Mill again, ‘He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that. His reasons may be good, and no one may have been able to refute them. But if he is equally unable to refute the reasons on the opposite side, if he does not so much as know what they are, he has no ground for preferring either opinion… Nor is it enough that he should hear the opinions of adversaries from his own teachers, presented as they state them, and accompanied by what they offer as refutations. He must be able to hear them from persons who actually believe them…he must know them in their most plausible and persuasive form.’”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Surprise U.S.-China Climate Deal Breaks Through Superpower Standoff
It was a bilateral deal between the two countries that paved the way for the landmark Paris Agreement
By Jennifer Dlouhy, Karoline Kan and Jess Shankleman, Bloomberg Green, Nov 11, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Another phony “deal.”]
Scientists appeal for immediate climate action at COP26
By AFP Staff Writers, Glasgow (AFP), Nov 11, 2021
BBC’s COP26 Propaganda
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2021
To Avert an Energy Crisis, America Needs to Accelerate the Renewable Transition
By Gregory Wetstone, Real Clear Energy, Nov 10, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Unreliable electricity will save us from an energy crisis? More claims about how cheap renewables are getting without examining how unreliable they are.]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Climate-Risk Disclosure: A Flimsy Pretext for a Green Power Grab
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Foundation, November 2021
Iran Climate Agreement Demand: No Sanctions and Free US Technology
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 11, 2021
IEA’s Net Zero: Private to Socialist Investment (OPEC, Russia gift?)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Nov 11, 2021
Questioning European Green
Pitfalls of Energy Transition on Full Display in Europe
By Matthew Kandrach, Real Clear Energy, Nov 11, 2021
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Net Zero Watch guide to decarbonising your life
By Andy Shaw, Net Zero Watch, Nov 11, 2021
Funding Issues
Net Zero and Green Financial Repression
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Nov 9, 2021
Are we heading for a net zero crash?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 8, 2021
NatWest Tracking Your Carbon Footprint
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 11, 2021
Litigation Issues
Climate change: The US state taking on an oil giant for greenwashing
By Chris Morris & Merlyn Thomas, BBC, Nov 6, 2021
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Official COP26 wind farm showcases obscene renewables costs
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Nov 9, 2021
“The Griffin wind farm in Perthshire is the official electricity supplier to the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, though of course the conference buildings actually rely on the grid mix of electricity generation, including nuclear, gas, and even coal to guarantee security of supply.
“Even more embarrassingly, it now transpires that the Griffin wind farm has been receiving large payments to reduce generation due to low local demand and weak grid connection between the wind farm and the majority of the grid’s consumers.”
[SEPP Comment: When they can’t generate and when they over generate, wind and solar are a financial disaster to the consumer.]
Solar and Wind Have Outgrown Their Tax Credit Allowance
By Oliver McPherson-Smith, Real Clear Energy, Nov 9, 2021
EPA and other Regulators on the March
The EPA Is Taking An Aggressive Stance Against Methane Emissions
By Haley Zaremba, Oil Price.com, Nov 3, 2021
Energy Issues – Australia
Well that explains everything: Bankers bullied Australia into Net Zero
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 13, 2021
Energy Issues — US
Why the U.S. Didn’t Join 40 Other Countries in Pledge to End Coal
Economics is already playing a large role in curtailing American coal power
By Benjamin Storrow, E&E News, Via Scientific American, Nov 8, 2021
Washington’s Control of Energy
Skyrocketing fuel costs will lead to a long, cold winter of discontent for Americans — courtesy of Biden
By James Bovard, New York Post, Nov 11, 2021
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Natural gas powerhouse Venture Global signs largest-ever supply deal by an American company
By Anjali Sundaram, CNBC, Nov 4, 2021
Return of King Coal?
Bloomberg: Coal Divesters Sweetening the Deal with New Long Term Permits
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 11, 2021
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Nuclear Fiasco: Plant Vogtle 3 & 4 ‘Adjustment’ (what’s new?)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Nov 10, 2021
Back to nuclear
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 10, 2021
“It is funny, in the ha ha as well as weird sense, that the document had to be leaked because even EU officials understood that in the current topsy-turvy debate it would be seen as scandalous to propose something we could actually do, technically and financially. And indeed it was scandalous; ‘This proposal is a scientific disgrace that would deal a fatal blow to the taxonomy,’ said Henry Eviston, spokesman on sustainable finance at WWF European Policy Office.”
[SEPP Comment: In biology, taxonomy is concerned with classification of organisms. Getting through the academic babble, the WWF person is objecting because nuclear power interferes with his system of classifications?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Official COP26 wind farm showcases obscene renewables costs
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Nov 9, 2021
“The Griffin wind farm in Perthshire is the official electricity supplier to the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, though of course the conference buildings actually rely on the grid mix of electricity generation, including nuclear, gas, and even coal to guarantee security of supply.
“Even more embarrassingly, it now transpires that the Griffin wind farm has been receiving large payments to reduce generation due to low local demand and weak grid connection between the wind farm and the majority of the grid’s consumers.”
[SEPP Comment: When they can’t generate and when they over generate, wind and solar are a financial disaster to the consumer.]
NIMBY: Rural Residents Push Back on Large Solar Farms
By Staff, Habitat, Accessed Nov 12, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Why not call paving for parking lots farming?]
The Rise Of Wind And Solar Power
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 12, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Greenwashing Waste: Exxon’s $350 per Barrel Algae ‘Oil’ (Lee Raymond is Missed)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 9, 2021
Let’s Find Common Ground on America’s Energy Future
By Dave Schryver, Real Clear Energy, Nov 11, 2021
[SEPP Comment: An argument for methane from waste, RNG.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
The Role Of Critical Minerals In The Clean Energy Transition
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 10, 2021
Link to report: The Role Of Critical Minerals In The Clean Energy Transition
By Staff, IEA, May 2021
“The raw material cost ratio for batteries is particularly useful to know, accounting for 50 to 70% of battery costs. Perfectly credible projections suggest lithium and cobalt prices could rise tenfold by 2030, which would mean the total battery cost could rise by 500% or more. At this level, electric cars will simply be unaffordable for most drivers, even if economies of scale drive down manufacturing costs.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Electric cars to get more expensive as battery costs soar
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 8, 2021
Health, Energy, and Climate
No, Doctor Merritt, ‘Climate Change’ Does Not Affect Human Health, but Weather Does
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Nov 8, 2021
Back to heat deaths
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 10, 2021
Environmental Industry
Plastic Is the New Coal, Says New Report
Here’s why that’s trouble for COP26
By Abe Musselman, Sierra Mag. Nov 7, 2021
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Hawaii governor urges bolder climate action: Net zero is ‘not good enough’
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Nov 8, 2021
[SEPP Comment: As a demonstration of leadership, will he prohibit tourist flights into Hawaii?]
Watch: Al Gore’s Latest ‘Solution’ To Climate Change Is Mass Surveillance
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Nov 8, 2021
“Speaking from the private jet and super yacht owners gathering, otherwise known as the COP 26 summit, Al Gore touted his latest solution to curb carbon emissions, mass surveillance via satellites, sensors and artificial intelligence.”
COP26 Backfires! Hilarious Videos Emerge
Video, Heartland Institute, Nov 11, 2021
Green Council [leader] Flew To Glasgow To Protest Against Climate Change!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2021
[SEPP Comment: According to Rail Europe, a train from London to Glasgow takes an average of 5 hours 6 minutes covering a distance of 554 km. On average there are 22 trains per day and prices for a single ticket start from $30.74.]
ARTICLES
1. Electric-Vehicle Charging Stations Win Jolt of Energy in Congress
Bipartisan infrastructure bill would direct billions to long-distance charging networks and steps to improve electric-transmission lines
By Jennifer Hiller, WSJ, Nov 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Wasting money is bipartisan! No government subsidies were given to gasoline stations when automobiles were introduced.]
TWTW Summary: The reporter begins:
“The roughly $1 trillion infrastructure package passed by Congress on Friday provides a spark to efforts to build a national network of electric-vehicle charging stations.
“The bipartisan measure touches on nearly every aspect of the electric-vehicle industry and eclipses previous efforts in the U.S. It also includes funding to help transform the nation’s aging electric grid by upgrading high-voltage transmission lines and other infrastructure set to become even more crucial as the country electrifies more of its transportation system.
“It directs $5 billion to expanding electric-vehicle highway charging, which once in place would let drivers take longer road trips without the fear of running out of power. Proponents consider long-distance charging networks a critical missing ingredient for wider adoption of EVs.
“A further $2.5 billion in federal grant funding could go toward electric-vehicle charging or alternatives such as hydrogen-fueling infrastructure, while $2.5 billion is set aside for electrifying school buses. Even more money for EVs could come through a separate $2.5 billion for low-emissions school buses, or measures such as $2.25 billion for ports that could be tapped for electrification projects.
“‘These are big, big numbers relative to what’s happened in the United States,’ said Nick Nigro, founder of Atlas Public Policy, a Washington, D.C., research firm that tracks the EV market. ‘This is transformational for electric vehicles.’
“The money to jump-start the electric-vehicle industry is just one component in the biggest federal infrastructure-investment package in more than a decade—one expected eventually to deliver funds to numerous industries. The legislation, which President Biden has indicated he will sign soon, includes funds to fix aging roads, bridges and ports, replace lead pipes in drinking-water systems, expand internet access in rural areas and tune up the power grid, among other projects.
“So far, less than $5 billion has been committed to electric vehicle charging infrastructure collectively in the U.S. by government agencies, utilities and states, and that has happened over a period of many years, Mr. Nigro said.
“While the funding represents an unprecedented level of government support for electrifying transportation, analysts say far greater sums would be needed to build a national network of charging stations akin to the gasoline stations that now dot the country. Government officials hope to build a more robust network of chargers capable of powering all types of electric vehicles. Currently, one of the most expansive networks in the country is the one Tesla Inc. TSLA -2.83% built to support its vehicles.
“Many electric-vehicle charging stations are unprofitable, and the burgeoning EV industry faces a chicken-or-the-egg dilemma: Consumers are wary of buying electric vehicles without sufficient stations, and companies are reluctant to build stations without sufficient customers.”
The article continues with promotional statements by those who will profit from the subsidies.
****************
2. Xi Jinping Battens Down the Hatches
He understands the dangers confronting China better than his propagandists do.
By Walter Russell Mead, WSJ, Nov. 8, 2021
TWTW Summary: Mr Mead begins:
“‘A man of determination and action,’ gushed China’s official news outlet Xinhua in a courageously fawning 12,000-word profile. ‘A man of profound thoughts and feelings,’ the news agency continued, ‘a man who inherited a legacy but dares to innovate, and a man who has forward-looking vision and is committed to working tirelessly.’ This extraordinary figure, few readers will be surprised to learn, is Xi Jinping, the paramount ruler of China, who is now consolidating his power across the Communist Party and the Chinese state. Though preoccupied with the cares of office, Mr. Xi still has time for the little people, the Xinhua profile marveled. Mr. Xi ‘used his own money to help finance the medical treatment of a villager from Liangjiahe.’ This paragon of leadership even inspects ‘pigsties and toilets to obtain first-hand information of people’s livelihood.’
“On the evidence of this unsigned article, President Xi can check ‘achieve total control over Xinhua’ off his to-do list. If China’s leaders are as wise as its propagandists are servile, the Middle Kingdom’s future is secure.
“Mr. Xi, who intends to be enthroned with Mao and Deng Xiaoping among the greatest heroes of Chinese Communist history, certainly has accomplishments to celebrate as he approaches his third five-year term in power, with no limit on additional terms. Not only has he sidelined his domestic opponents and centralized power in China to a degree not seen since Mao’s death; he has vastly expanded China’s global footprint and led a transformative military buildup that is forcing the U.S. to rethink its Pacific strategy and position.
“As the rest of the world sputtered impotently, he brought Hong Kong to heel and has presided over draconian repressions in Tibet and Xinjiang. He has led the development of the most intrusive and efficient system of surveillance and social control in human history. He has forced powerful local officials to bow to the dictates of Beijing and is driving changes in China’s basic economic structure and environmental policies whose impact will be felt globally for decades. Like him or not, Mr. Xi is a major historical figure who dominates our time.
“Yet profound as subordinates tell us his thought is, and exemplary as his work ethic may be, Mr. Xi must see a mixed and perplexing scene in China and its international environment. Two years after the first cases of a mysterious new illness appeared in Wuhan, at an immense human and economic cost, China has contained Covid at home. But even the Chinese government cannot maintain this level of vigilance forever and there is no exit strategy in sight.
“Covid is only one of the problems testing Mr. Xi’s work ethic. Inflation, energy shortages, an aging population and financial turmoil in the vital property-development industry are worsening as a secular slowdown in growth ripples through the economy. Abroad, the combination of rising Chinese power and declining confidence in Chinese benevolence is expediting the development of balancing coalitions in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Foreign resentment at China’s abuse of the international trade system is fueling new trade pacts aimed at limiting China’s exports.
“What Mr. Xi thinks of this can only be inferred, but the most striking feature of his domestic policy, the harshest crackdown on freedom since the end of the Cultural Revolution, suggests that he understands the dangers confronting his country better than the hired propagandists celebrating his reign. Reducing the autonomy of local officials, crushing rivals within the Communist Party, imposing ever-tightening censorship on what was once a relatively freewheeling Chinese internet, silencing independent journalism about the mounting problems of the Chinese financial system, disciplining the tech titans—these are the actions of someone who fears what the future may bring. Mr. Xi is boarding up the windows and reinforcing the doors not because he thinks the Chinese Communist Party has solved China’s problems and that there are only blue skies and sunshine ahead, but because he thinks a great storm is coming.
“China’s power is formidable, but that those who know it from the inside feel its fragility.”
After discussing the arrogance and insecurity of Kaiser Wilhelm leading to Germany’s participation in World War I, the author continues:
“At some point, we can hope that Mr. Xi will brush aside the lapdogs and reconsider his course. But for now, the world must deal with a Chinese government simultaneously puffed up by triumphalism and haunted by fears of the future. In response, the U.S. and its allies must make resolute and robust preparations to deter Chinese aggression while conveying a genuine desire to work cooperatively with a China willing to uphold the basic framework of international order.”
You mean as is this model that Stephen Wilde and I presented here on WUWT in June 2019?
See Figure 5: Inverse Climate Model of Venus: showing Energy Vectors and Final Energy Distributions.
Of course they dont care about science, and in so doing are destroying it. The one single thing that has done more to lift man from the gutter of ignorance, and it is being destroyed.
Thats the greatest shame of this climate change scandal. The destruction of science. It is shocking.
“We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it,”
It’s not science, it’s a religion. Based on faith, not facts.
It has ever been thus.
I blame the MSM who try to outcomes each other with “if it bleeds it leads”.
Also the Internet which has speeded up the transmission of ideas, good and bad, so thar the proverb “a lie goes round the world before the truth has got its boots on” is a gross understatement.
Now there’s an action photo with a herd of people! One taking a selfie, another twisting a kid’s arm, and a few that seem to be amazed at what the others are doing. lol. And then the ‘slow poke’ driver leading/holding back a caravan of RVs and even a school bus! I can hear the horns blowing from here!
The next wave of La Niña may be stronger.
3.4 is somewhat a bit different:
And given the existing influence of water vapor, the influences of the other gases on global temperatures are insignificant.
At current concentrations, increasing water vapor and carbon dioxide have a very small effect on temperatures; the effects are termed “saturated.” The effects of increasing the other greenhouse gases are tiny.
“Other things being equal, this will cause a temperature increase of about 0.012 C [per] year. Proposals to place harsh restrictions on methane emissions because of warming fears are not justified by facts.”
_________________________________________
Yes regulating methane is not justified by facts. But that’s exactly what’s going on, and it’s going to be enacted by a policy maker near you. And probably sooner than you think.
When somebody shows you a hockey stick temperature reconstruction, ask them to explain the 1,000, 2,000 and 3,000 year-old tree trunks of large ancient forests that are emerging from retreating glaciers.
10:24 PM AKST on November 15, 2021 (GMT -9)
Elev 27 m, 64.56 °N, 165.22 °W
Nome, AK Weather Conditionsstar NOME STATION
–° | -20°
-40 °C
LIKE -47°
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/ak/nome/KAKNOME22
The Happer & Wijngarten paper is THE nail in the AGW coffin. Theory and observations go remarkably well together. It definitively takes CO2 and methane out of the picture, and definitively cancels out most of the UN’s policies. That’s why the paper is ignored by them, alarmists and politicians. Spectroscopy and absorption of light could be explained relatively easily to the general public. Maybe it would make sense to concentrate our argumentation and public information mainly on this paper and defy these people to come out with arguments against it, instead of trying to argue along countless other fronts which inherently dilutes our efforts.
Eric, you do realise that the Wijngaarden & Happer paper estimates a CO2 climate sensitivity of 1.4C without H2O feedback and 2.2C with H2O feedback? (See Table 5 in section 7.5). This does not look like “the nail in the AGW coffin” to me.
However, what should be made very clear is that the calculations in the paper are for “clear sky” conditions – i.e. no clouds. Observations show that about 2/3 of the Earth’s surface is cloudy. Calculating the behaviour of the atmosphere in cloudy areas is way more complex than for cloudless conditions.
So Wijngaarden & Happer is a good paper, but only goes so far. Calculating the CO2 climate sensitivity of the whole Earth requires some way of dealing with all the cloudy areas.
What are ‘sacrifice zones’ and why do some Americans live in them? | Adrienne Matei | The Guardian
Around 256,000 Americans live in areas where incidences of cancer caused by air pollution exceed the Environmental Protection Agency’s current upper limit of ‘acceptable risk’
Ask the kids and others everywhere else that dig for rare earths and minerals for “environemental protection” by CO2 reduction targets for windmills, EV, batteries, solar panels etc.
Than come back again.
Record rainfall prompts evacuations along the Pacific north-west | Climate crisis | The Guardian
Record rainfall prompts evacuations along the Pacific north-west
Communities in western Canada and Washington state forced to flee homes after record downpour leads to severe floods
More climate change related extreme weather…!
More climate change relatedextreme weather…! – But“More climate change related extreme weather”
…more ridiculous claims trying to link every downpour to “climate change” – without a shred of scientific evidence
…standard practice for “The Grauniad” of course – Climate Delusion central.
November 16th, 2021:
9,649,194 km2, a century break increase of 121,810 km2.
2021 is now 14th lowest on record.