Reposted from The NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on 23. October 2021
Political energy mismanagement in Germany now risks inflicting tremendous pain on citizens as energy shortages intensify and prices skyrocket. Coming winter of discontent?
Energy prices going through the roof
By Fritz Vahrenholt, first published at Tichys Einblick
(Translated/edited by Pierre Gosselin)
Prices for natural gas, coal, oil and electricity have been rising massively since the middle of the year. The price of a kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity has almost tripled to 13 euro cents per kWh on the Leipzig wholesale electricity exchange.and the price of natural gas has increased fivefold.
Politics in Germany are not entirely uninvolved in the development of prices. The reasons are:
– Coal power phase-out between 2017 and 2021 throughout Europe and especially in Germany
– Tripling of CO2 certificate prices since 2020 from 20 to over 60 euros per ton of CO2. This also affects gas-fired power generation
– The switch from coal-fired power to more expensive gas-fired power
– Global increase in demand for gas as a result of the post-pandemic economic recovery
– Extremely weak German wind year from January to September 2021
Although Russia has delivered exactly the volumes of gas as ordered by gas importers, obviously not enough gas has been ordered, as even Chancellor Merkel admitted.
Electricity prices are also shooting up
Electricity prices for industry have tripled, and household electricity will rise from 31 euro-cent/kWh to around 40 euro cent/kwh. Well over half of the electricity price is taxes, surcharges and levies. There would be plenty of opportunity for the German government to reduce costs.
There won’t be electricity to power electric cars
Another serious problem will soon be the shortage of secure power generation because of Germany’s nuclear and the coal phase-out, which has already begun. Not only is this driving up prices. There will be risks of power supply outages during the winter, with possible targeted or involuntary shutdowns to keep the grid from collapsing.
By 2030, there will be neither power for a single additional electric car nor additional CO2-free power for industry. Never mind the heat supply.
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You’re welcome from Happy Valley, Pa. /s
Redistributive change, affirmative discrimination, and lowered expectations. What did people expect?
I can see in this UK winter, with gas shortages, high prices, a series of rolling blackouts when a high pressure system moves over the UK, an interconnector from the mainland Europe fails. With only 3 days of gas in reserve, our gas powered electrical generation would be stopped immediately to conserve gas and keep homes warm (ish).
Our nuclear electrical generators will be running maxed out providing power homes and offices perhaps one day power week. (Since nuclear only provides about 20% of the total in normal conditions).
With heavy industry shut, we would scrape through with empty fridges and freezers for a week or two.
Then the wind blows and its all back to normal! Phew.
Of course, when you are blacked out, your gas fired heating system does not run. Oh dear!
They will soon be urging people to unplug their refrigerators and freezers. No sense wasting the electricity just to keep a smidgen of food cold. And if you do need refrigeration, set a pail of water out at night, let it freeze, then put it in the fridge. Bring back the old fashion iceboxes.
Might be a good time to research how people lived a hundred years, or so, ago, when the electricity was turned off every night.
You are assuming that the pumps providing water to homes will still work in a black out.
Now I finally understand the Butterfly Effect. A simple turning up of the thermostat in a Congressional meeting room in 1988 before James Hansen testified lead to untold misery thousands of miles away and across the globe. More importantly, you can’t stop it now can you Boris or Ursula?
It should be called “the Propaganda Effect”.
This landed in an email just now….
I Am Not Trying Nor Have ANY Wish to Derail This Thread
but – just look at the similarities between what he’s talking here (Covid) with Climate Science & Energy Policy
(My high-lighting)
Quote:”Covid expert Dr. Peter McCullough stated in a lecture to a large audience in Michigan on September 24 that “We’re in the middle of a major catastrophe.” In his lecture, he said “there has been an injection of a substance into half of Americans’ bodies and there’s yet to be a report to America on safety.” Noting that every industry has high standards of safety, he said it’s “beyond astonishing” that there is no independent safety monitoring system for this situation. “We never let the company decide on the causality of a problem. We never let a company tell us if a product is safe,” McCullough said, and “Not having a Data Safety Monitoring Board will go down in history as a colossal misstep in public health.”
…………what is really going on in this world right now………..
Morano is right – climate lock-downs loom, bevioral psyhology at play – see post..
My family is directly responsible for being recipients of 6 of the 6.8B global vaccine tests with no ill effects. My Brother died for the disease before the vaccine was available. I have nothing bad to say about the shot…except…it should but doesn’t prevent you from getting the virus. (So not a true vaccine) I couldn’t imagine the Polio Vaccine considered successful if you could still get and pass on Polio after getting the vaccine.
What is the German for ‘schadenfreude’….😉
Just capitalize the first letter, Kumpel.
Tell me what the English transltion is 😀
‘Boris Johnson.’
Who was it that said you may not turn back in Stalingrad, keep fighting no matter the cost?
Goebbels sent Christmass Trees by airlift when the soldiers begged for heavy winter garments. This kind of unbelievable cynicism seems to be still in play…
Cynicism? It just depends on the point of view.
Instead of heavy winter garments he sent them CO2 neutral heating material!
Stalingrad is a very good analogy for this
It just occurred to me here in Californistan that the push for green (lack of) energy and the push to eliminate gas powered vehicles in favor of all the now well known eco-damage/slave labor supporting consequences of electric battery vehicles does make sense: As soon as we all have electric cars and trucks they will ration the little electricity available and thereby accomplish what they always have wanted, which among other things is for almost everyone to stop driving and to control when and where we do drive. The government crazies out here are quite calculating, and while I thought their heads would explode trying to deal with the truth about battery manufacture and waste on the one hand, and elimination of fossil fuels on the other hand, I now see they go hand-in-hand with a much longer view to their ultimate goal of travel restriction, housing density, government transit control, HVAC control, and etc. for the hoi polloi. Wow. Clever. Diabolical.
The California government was been seizing more power and we have allowed them to do this.
Things could be worse. We could have nonprofits seeking funds for gain of function research and rogue nations testing nukes and ballistic missiles. I hear Scotland is just beautiful this time of year.
The EU are going to be stuffed if China decides to pay a visit. How can govt officials be so stupid.
Because these govt officials have been practicing for years after weeding out many of those with some degree of sense. The whole EU setup has not rewarded the intelligent, just those stupid people who don’t rock the boat.
According to the EIA site, Germany has imported almost 300% of the amount of coal from the U.S. than it did in 2020; the Netherlands up over 45%, and Great Britain up over 37%.
What I’m curious about is why did the coal-fired powerplants in China allow their stocks of coal to get so low? This seems to be a problem across the nation, so it’s not just the fault of poor planning on an individual powerplant supervisor’s part. It must have been as a result of an order of some kind from higher authorities. But ordering your coal-fired powerplants to run short of coal doesn’t any sense.
Banning the import of Australian coal for a year has probably forced their stocks of coal to be used up. As they import more coal than any other country, that is an awful lot of coal suddenly required from elsewhere. Other large importers such as Japan and India probably have secured long-term supply contracts at fixed price, so only relatively small amounts may be available to purchase on the open/spot market.
The wonderful benefits of a centrally-controlled society.
That’s what it sounds like.
Has anybody heard anything from the people formerly responsible for coal policy in China?
They’ve ramped up internal production of coal about as far as they can go for the moment, but they’ve been building more coal plants than they have coal to supply them with. With the moratorium on imported Australian coal, they’ve been burning through their reserves faster than they can be replenished.
Bringing coal to Newcastle is now established as a good (and necessary) thing. Thanks to Maggie Thatcher?
Oh my . . . another hockey stick graph! . . . big difference is that this one is real.
… and it was caused by “climate change” 🙂
When elected ‘progressives’ flaunt their unassailable superiority in knowledge and analysis of ‘climate change’ and predictions of the future, then apply these noble principles to governance of their fellow citizens, it takes more than one application of the real world to wake them from their upper-class dream. We’re seeing the first real-world application in these skyrocketing German prices and plummeting German access to any electrical power at all.
For every action an equal and opposite reaction: those German citizens now irrevocably facing extortionate pricing and negative availability of power will precede their arrogant government in waking up in outrage, and their temporary ‘progressivism’ will fall off like melting sheet ice. The next elections could become the Grand Oustings of the Century.
“next elections” in Germany will probably be several years away, since Germany just had a federal election, in which the Greens secured a position in the putative government coalition. The Greens have long campaigned against fossil fuels, and against the new Nordstream 2 pipeline in particular.
Schaden Freude will enjoy an interesting and amusing time for the next few years watching the Greens justify their policies to the public as they try to avoid freezing in the dark..
I suspect the German people will not agree that they elected a government bent on freezing and impoverishing them. What methods are there in Germany for legally removing elected officials?
I rarely know what “price” for electricity is being discussed in such articles. For example, when discussing “40 euro cent/kwh it is easy enough to convert euro cent to US cents, but just what is the number? Is it the price of electricity delivered to the home meter or is it the price of electricity alone, without the delivery charge, taxes and fees. Here in Southern Maryland, for example, I pay about 6 cents/kwh for just the electricity and another 6 cents/kwh for delivery, taxes and other charges – a total of 12 cents/kwh on my bill.
It appears you live in an area that allows you to buy electricity from any utility that will sell it to you, even Renewable energy. When you purchase electricity that way the company that has the wires and distribution system that connect your home to the “grid” can charge you their cost for delivering your electricity to you. Your real cost of electricity is the sum of the two. Usually, a utility that offers this “service” is selling electricity at competitive rates to the others that you can buy from if/when you consider that you may be getting Renewable and the home utility does not.
All I know is that Germany, for example, has some of the lowest wholesale prices for electricity in Europe and also some of the highest retail prices. As others stated earlier more than half the domestic electricity price is taxes and surcharges (largely to subsidise unreliables).
Can Germans even afford to run a refrigerator or a freezer at that cost? Years ago, when I no longer had a real need for a freezer I got rid of it. My electric bill decreased by over $7.00 a month, and that was at 6 cents (US) per kwH. The government efficiency tag on my refrigerator says it will cost me ~$100 /year at $0.06/kwH. That means even a refrigerator is going to cost over €80 – 90 per month ion Germany.
You may want to save the plastic milk bottles, fill them with water and set them out to freeze each night. Then swap out the ones in your fridge each morning/night.
Please note – ONLY THE UBER RICH CAN AFFORD THE MYTH OF RENEWABLE ENERGY.
Blame it on the chip shortage and COVID19–the climate communications consultants team says so.
The more I see of these kinds of things, the more I am reminded of an overdone pot of gravy that is starting to both stick to the pan and boil in the middle, because the pot is not being stirred adequately.
Something is going to come out of all of this turmoil. I have plenty of popcorn and butter, but I’ll have to go get more soft drinks, ham and whole grain bread and Dijon mustard and pickles, and potato chips and make a big pot of this ultra-wonderful veggie/beans/sausage soup to go with it all. And cheesecake — gotta have cheesecake!
It’s almost like watching some thing trying to decide whether to erupt and spew goop everywhere, or just slink away into a dark corner and sulk. And it’s everywhere.
Curiously at this moment on U.K. gridwatch we are exporting more than a GW to France, rather than the other way around. What’s the story there? Are the Germans leaning on France to shut down nuclear like they have with the Belgians?
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Quite high nuclear generation in the U.K. just now at about 5 GW, second highest contributor after wind (but stable and on-demand so worth more).
I suspect but am not sure that the UK grid wants to have 40% of its energy from big spinning generators to maintain frequency. With excess wind they either curtail it or sell it for almost nothing to the European grid.
I might be wrong but I conclude this after examining several tears of data from the UK grid.
Several decades ago, when Germany started its ENERGIEWENDE towards wind, and solar, and tree burning, and closing nuclear plants, I thought they were of-the-charts nuts.
The chickens are finally coming home to roost, aided and abetted by RE-idiot bureaucrats in Brussels, who know not their belly buttons from a hole in the ground; I trying to stay polite.
EXCERPT from:
HAVING FUN WATCHING WIND AND SOLAR FAILING TO STEP UP TO POWER THE WORLD ECONOMY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/having-fun-watching-wind-and-solar-failing-to-step-up-to-power/edit
INTRODUCTION
Europe is seeing major increases in the SPOT prices of gas/1000 m3, coal/metric ton, and oil/barrel.
This will have an adverse effect on prices at the pump, etc. The price increases happened due to several reasons.
Serbia, Hungary and Turkey had recently signed long-term contracts with Russia at about $3/million Btu.
Those countries were vilified by EU bureaucrats and the handmaiden Media.
Subsequently, SPOT prices of gas started to increase, and the three countries are smiling.
EU SPOT prices of gas increased to about $40/million Btu
US SPOT prices increased to about $5/million Btu, much less than Europe, due to an abundance of domestic gas. See below image.
The EU SPOT price surge is entirely the fault of EU bureaucrats in Brussels, which have urged EU countries NOT to sign long-term gas supply contracts with Russia, because it would send a “the wrong signal regarding fighting climate change”.
NOTE: Often prices are stated as $/1000 m3 of gas
1000 m3 contains 1000 x 35.315 ft3/m3 x 1000 Btu/ft3 = 35,315,000 Btu
$3/million Btu would be 3 x 35.315 = $105.94/1000 m3
$40/million Btu would be 40 x 35.315 = $1412.6/1000 m3
REASONS FOR SPOT PRICE INCREASES
1) EU bureaucrats had urged EU countries not to sign long-term gas supply contracts with Russia, because electricity from wind, solar, etc., would increase, and signing long-term contracts would “send the wrong signal”, plus it would give “evil” Russia more clout in EU energy markets.
2) However, EU bureaucrats did not take into account the vagaries of wind and solar. In that regard, they are far from unique.
From April, 2020, to the present, there has been significantly less wind than in prior years.
Even though more onshore and offshore wind turbine capacity, MW, was installed in the UK, Ireland, Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and Denmark, that did not result in as much of an increase in wind electricity as predicted, due to less than average winds.
3) As a result, the shortfall of wind electricity had to be made up by burning more gas and coal, which rapidly increased SPOT prices of gas to $40/million Btu, and also increased the SPOT prices of coal.
4) Then, people became aware, the EU winter storage of gas was very low, compared to prior years, which meant energy markets began to bid up the SPOT prices of gas for future, i.e., winter, delivery.
5) At first, EU bureaucrats tried to hide their lack of planning ability, and blame the shortfalls on market manipulation by Russia.
However, Russia proved, with gas system operating data, it had been transmitting gas to the EU, IN EXCESS of long-term contract requirements; in case of Ukraine, the excess transmission was 10%. Various EU countries, that receive a steady supply of low-cost gas from Russia, chimed in to support Russia. See Note.
NOTE: If the Ukraine gas transmission had been any quantity less than per contract, Ukraine would have cried “Russia is using gas as a weapon” to its EU, US, and NATO protectors.
Ukraine does not buy gas directly from Russia. Instead, the gas flows through a transmission line, and Ukraine takes some of that gas for its own use.
Ukraine calls that gas “a reverse-flow supply”, as if it came from EU countries, i.e., a charade.
Ukraine pays these EU countries about 20 to 30 percent more, than if Ukraine had bought the gas directly from Russia.
Because of Ukraine’s habit of not paying for Russian gas in the past, Russia requires Ukraine to pay for a year’s supply, up front, in cash.
Ukraine could not be such a bad commercial actor with regard to the EU, as otherwise, it would never be admitted to NATO and the EU.
https://tass.com/economy/1350397
Didn’t Germany close most of its nuclear power plants in response to Fukushima?
Don’t blame the government and let the citizens off the hook. “Green” policies have had very strong support from the populace for decades.
Now is the time to point at them and laugh, not to try to help them.
Yes, they closed most of their nuclear power plants already. There are only 3 powerful ones remaining (still providing 10% of energy supply) but also those are already scheduled for shut-down on 1.1.2023.
Not really wanting to be so negative, but the German people have massively voted for the Socialist and Green parties this fall. In democracy one gets the Government that one chooses, and deserves. If one can’t think rationally, then the result finally is to have to learn the hard way. They’ve barely avoided having a Green Chancellor who talked about “Kobolds” (instead of “Kobalt”) in electric vehicles. The German Government is absolutely incompetent, be it health, energy, defense, commerce, you name it. It’s insane.
I’m sorry to say it, but the Germans have recently massively voted for the Socialists and the Greens. They get the Government they deserve and will have to learn reality the hard way.
Ecocide, the destruction of ones economy through energy policy.
Poland has a few questions about that these days.