A powerful ocean storm will have a big impact from Sunday into Monday in the region from British Columbia (Canada) to California. Map courtesy ECMWF (00Z Euro), tropicaltidbits.com
Guest post by Paul Dorian
Overview
One strong storm system has impacted the west coast states from Washington-to-California in the past 24 hours or so with significant rainfall, but an even stronger storm is likely have an impact from Sunday into Monday. In fact, this next storm could become the strongest system in many years to impact the region from British Columbia (Canada) to California. Rainfall will be excessive with this next storm, winds will be powerful and potentially damaging, and snow will pile up in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in eastern California. The upper-level support for this system is likely to then cross the country next week and that could result in a mid-week severe weather outbreak and a late week storm near the eastern seaboard.
Significant snow on the order of several feet is on the table from this upcoming storm across the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in eastern California. Map courtesy ECMWF (00Z Euro), pivotalweather.com
Details
Rain is falling today across many of the western states from California to Washington, but this is just the opening salvo in an overall weather pattern that will bring excessive rainfall to this same region from Sunday into Monday. After a break in the action from later tonight into Saturday, more rain will develop along the west coast on Sunday as a powerful storm system pushes towards British Columbia/Pacific Northwest. Some computer forecast models have projected central pressure of this developing storm system to bottom out near 940 millibars (27.76 inches) in coming days which would be some of the deepest readings seen in decades that close to the coastline of the Pacific Northwest.
Much of the western US has been experiencing “extreme” or “exceptional” drought conditions in recent weeks, but that is likely to change in a big way in coming days. Map courtesy NOAA/CPC
Some of the heaviest rainfall from this monster storm system is likely to take place across the northern half of California from Sunday into Monday where several inches can fall and localized flash flooding is a serious concern. Snow can pile up in this same time frame on the order of several feet across the higher elevation locations of the Sierra Nevada Mountain in eastern California. Strong and potentially damaging winds are likely to accompany this storm as well; especially, along the west coast of Washington which will be near the storm system when it reaches its lowest pressure. A couple of benefits from the expected rainfall will the filling of some of the lakes across the western states (e.g., Lake Shasta is ~25% full) and it would also stop any still on-going wildfire activity in its tracks; however, these will benefits may come at a steep price.
The upper-level support associated with the powerful late weekend storm will cross the country next week and take on a “negative-tilt” by the time it reaches the Mississippi Valley. This scenario could result in a mid-week severe weather outbreak including possible tornadoes across the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Upper Midwest. Map courtesy ECMWF (00Z Euro), tropicaltidbits.com
After slamming the west coast, this system will push into the Rocky Mountain States early next week with some rain and snow and then the upper-level support will push into the nation’s mid-section at mid-week and begin taking on a “negative tilt” (i.e., trough axis aloft becomes oriented from NW-to-SE). With such strong support aloft, a severe weather outbreak is on the table at mid-week including the threat of tornadoes in the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Upper Midwest. By late next week, the upper-level support associated with this powerful storm system will arrive in the eastern states and it could very well spawn a strong surface storm along the eastern seaboard…stay tuned.
Paul Dorian
Meteorologist
“…and snow will pile up in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in eastern California.” – quote that means more volume in the watershed, right? So, despite all the politics and squawking by the Greenbeaners, things are actually normal.
In re: possible bad weather here in the Midwest, this morning’s weather radar map for the area indicated (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan) showed frost (blue) and freeze (purple) warnings for the upper Midwest, including my AO, and the temp at 5AM was 34F. REally glad to see something NORMAL!!!
Early snow? BRING IT!!!!! Farmers will still be out in the fields running those big ol’ combines to get grain to the markets, and planting winter wheat so that the city folks can have carbohydrates on their dinner tables. If we have late-season tornadoes, I will post that, too.
Oh, yeah – one of Japan’s volcanoes has erupted, so will that have any effect on the weather we get down the road? Just askin’. Being a skeptic is fun.
There is a good chance that the reservoirs in California will fill up within the next seven days.
Excellent! Thank you! After a brief drought in the late spring, it finally rained and kept on raining, and the green returned. Then in August, we had two weeks (where I am) with no rain at all, and finally, the rains returned. This year’s weather has been erratic, ditto down south in the corn and soybean fields. Lack of rainfall affects the price of food at the store, which hits you in the pockets when you shop.
Don’t know what the excuse is for rising prices right now, but is possibly linked to all those container ships trying to dock at the Port of Los Angeles and get stuff to consumers. I am hearing occasional references to “empty shore shelves again” on the morning news, but not like it was a year ago.
I went to two Walmarts and a Kroger and couldn’t find any regular size canning lids. My local Meijer had six packs, I got three…
In case anyone is interested there is a weather website that is above most when it comes to ease of understanding. I have been using it as a sailor for several years and it is my go to site, especially wind. Called “Windy” you can see it here: https://www.windy.com/?43.215,-124.198,5
That’s going to be inconvenient for the gangs of Portland and Tacoma. Starting fires will be more difficult.
We’ll see.
I’m not mortgaging the farm based on the forecast of a meteorologist.
Could it possibly change direction and drench Scotland for the next week !!!! “Global warming ?????
The low in the upper troposphere has settled into the Gulf of Alaska. This is supported by a renewed decrease in solar wind speed (increase in GCR to over 6700 counts at Oulu).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=ak&product=wv-mid
Tomorrow will see the heaviest rainfall in California.
So I see drought levels are sort of like olive sizes. You never see anything smaller than jumbo in the supermarket, and the scale goes up in 7 more steps up to Super Mammoth.
Lincoln set the precedent that no state can leave the union voluntarily, but is it impossible for the other 49 states to just kick California out?
San Francisco and Los Angeles look to be on track to suffer the fates of Sodom and Gomorrah. Is there any reason the rest of us have to be tarnished with their… um, their… stigmata?
Shasta lake is beginning to fill.
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/dynamicapp/QueryF?s=SHA&d=24-Oct-2021+14:50&span=12hours
The level was down to 882.63 feet at 5:00 PDT on 10/24/21. But by 6:00 PDT there was a large inflow of 53864 CFS as heavy rains started sending water down the rivers and into the lake. By 13:00PDT on 10/25/21 the level was up to 885.28. That’s 2.65 feet in 32 hours.
So the reservoir is doing what it is supposed to do. They drain it down during the dry season to provide needed water for people and agriculture. Then during heavy rains the dam diverts water into the lake instead of letting it rush downstream causing flooding. Hopefully they’ll get enough rain to refill the lake in time for the next dry season.
Was the Madden Julian oscillation responsible?