The Ant and the Grasshopper

Japan Stocking Fossil Fuels for Winter (part of global pattern)

From MasterResource

By Vijay Jayaraj — October 5, 2021

“On-the-ground weather forecasts contradict the narrative that winters will be milder…. False climate forecasts can lead to chaos due to unpreparedness.”

Right in the midst of a global political effort to reduce fossil fuel consumption, Japan is set to increase its fossil fuel use and imports as an expected colder-than-normal winter approaches.

The country’s meteorological department recently released its weather outlook for the upcoming winter, which expects that most regions will experience either 30-year-average or below average temperatures between December and February.

Climate Narrative vs. Energy Reality

Blind belief in the global warming narrative can catch nations off guard, risking severe energy crises due to unpreparedness. There is an old axiom that says, “Measure twice, cut once.” It reiterates the need for careful planning before embarking on a task. Doing so saves time and energy and prevents mistakes.

The axiom is extremely relevant in energy policy planning. With the ascendancy of the climate global warming narrative, many nations are susceptible to believing climate-model projections that may not reflect real climate, much less actual weather patterns.

On-the-ground weather forecasts contradict the narrative that winters will be milder. A Washington Post article read, “Winters are Shrinking.” Environmental Defense Fund claimed, “Winters are warmer” and “cold streaks are rarer.”

Such false climate forecasts can lead to chaos due to unpreparedness. Texas got suckered into this belief, making the great freeze of February 2021 shocking.

Japan, an energy-intensive country, is one such country where warmer world–milder winters can cause significant disruptions to energy planning. But this country is wise enough not to get caught in this global propaganda. It is aware of the importance of trusting regional weather patterns.

Fossil Fuels Deliver

Fossil fuels are the preferred energy source in many countries for tough winter conditions as they are the only dependable and affordable fuel source—alongside nuclear—in cold and snowy conditions.

Wind turbines work only in certain geographical regions and in certain months when wind speed is optimum. But in cold weather, they are not reliable. According to the government of Canada,

the operation of wind turbines in a cold climate such as Canada’s involves additional challenges not present in warmer locations, such as: Accumulation of ice on wind turbine blades resulting in reduced power output and increased rotor loads; Cold weather shutdown to prevent equipment failure; and Limited or reduced access for maintenance activities.

For these reasons countries like China and Japan depend heavily on coal, natural gas, and oil, instead of the highly unreliable wind and solar. The Japanese authorities know they cannot leave millions to freeze in the cold and have decided to stock up enough fossil fuels to sustain during the winter. S&P Global notes, “Japan’s demand for coal, LNG, crude and fuel oil for power generation as well as city gas and kerosene for heating was robust in January as a result of severe cold spells.” The scenario is likely to repeat this year.

Other Countries Too

Winter energy crises across are of great concern the world over. The Japanese are very close to China, a country which in recent years has experienced severe energy shortages during winters due to its reluctance to increase coal consumption. A partial coal ban in northern provinces caused severe winter heating problems in recent years.

This year, news agencies in China predict widespread power blackouts in more than a dozen provinces as the country is critically short of coal and some power plants have stopped producing coal power due to high coal prices.

Japan, which has a bird’s eye view, is aware of the power shortage in China. So, to avoid similar situation at home, Japan will not restrict the use of coal, natural gas and oil during winter months.

The demand for oil and gas is not just in Japan. The UK, too, is highly reliant on imported natural gas for winter heating needs, and analysts have urged the country to secure its resources before winter induces a power demand surge.

“If the winter is actually cold, my concern is we will not have enough gas for use for heating in parts of Europe. … it won’t only be a recessionary value, it will affect the ability to provide gas for heating. It touches everybody’s lives,” said Amos Hochstein, the US State Department’s senior adviser for energy security.

The Future is Now

The combined rise in demand for fossil fuels from Europe, China, India, Vietnam, and Japan has led to an increase in coal and natural gas prices. Investors see a “natural-gas crunch spilling into crude market, lifting oil prices.” OPEC, in its newly released World Oil Outlook 2045, observes that “oil will be leading energy source for decades (at least until 2045) as crude reaches 3-year highs.”

The demand for fossil fuels and the sharp increase in fossil fuels prices indicate that these energy fuels still dominate the global energy sector. The winter rush for fossil fuels also confirms their effectiveness in delivering reliable energy during cold weather.

COP26 planners, are you listening?

———————————–

Vijay Jayaraj (M.Sc., Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, England), is a Research Contributor for the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation and resides in Bengaluru, India. His previous posts at MasterResource can be found here.

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October 6, 2021 2:25 am

With luck CO26 will end up in a power cut under severe snowfall,
and the attendees will all freeze to death.

Alba
Reply to  Leo Smith
October 6, 2021 4:01 am

Where do you live? I live just outside Glasgow. A power cut affecting the COP venue (the Scottish Exhibition Campus) would likely affect me. If not me, then probably lots of other people living near the SEC.
Severe snowfall. We don’t usually get severe snow in November in this part of the world so that’s highly unlikely. That’s just as well. Consider the disruption it would cause to the lives of many people.
Freeze to death. Wishing ill of other people? That definitely strikes me as potential hate speech. Whatever would motivate someone to wish the death of other people, no matter how much he disagreed with their views? Hopefully the comment was not meant to be taken seriously. But, no matter, it should not have been said.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 4:08 am

We don’t usually get severe snow in November in this part of the world so that’s highly unlikely.

But, is Al Gore attending?

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 6, 2021 8:59 am

His Blobness is waiting to see if his requested charter of The Guppy is available for his transport.

658DC81E-D459-45EE-BA2C-93FF11F52106.jpeg
Last edited 1 month ago by joelobryan
beng135
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
October 7, 2021 2:42 am

And that plane is just for his king-size glazed donut.

Jan de Jong
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 4:24 am

Is one allowed to hate people meaning one ill?

Scissor
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 4:51 am

Hate speech is free speech.

Bryan A
Reply to  Scissor
October 6, 2021 5:18 am

Almost any speech can be considered Hate Speech. Regardless of what is said someone could be made to feel hated because of it’s utterance
Man to Woman…”I love you”
Other woman…”He Hates Me, it’s obvious”

Reply to  Bryan A
October 6, 2021 5:39 am

Bigotry is only a personal values issue.

Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice, moderation is no virtue. Deplorable me is at liberty to hold my personal values.

Tony Sullivan
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 5:56 am

Hate speech? There is no such thing as hate speech. A completely fabricated term that has no place in civilized western society. Your post is a complete overreaction to a comment I’m 100% convinced was made in jest.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 6:21 am

How about wishing you energy poverty and rising inflation with falling purchasing power? Does that sound softer? Exporting bad ideas from Glasgow like sending Lenin on a train to Moscow is what upsets the outsiders and onlookers.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 6:33 am

Do you think the people pushing this crap have your best interests at heart?

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/extinction-rebellion-founder-admits-would-25136898

observa
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 7:27 am

OK OK well perhaps the janitor could open the windows on them and turn the heating down as I’ve heard it concentrates the mind.

Reply to  observa
October 6, 2021 1:30 pm

Observa:
That’s a great idea! IIRC Senators Tim Wirth & Al Gore opened the windows
to the conference room the night before James Hansen was to testify to US Congress about global warming (1988). The room was swelteringly hot for the event, as they intended.
So, putting a chill on the over heated rhetoric likely to be present at Glasgow sounds perfect!

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 8:43 am

Do you even understand the concept of hyperbole? No, I didn’t think so. Please peddle your Caspar Milquetoast sensibilities elsewhere.

Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 8:48 am

c’mon Man!!! Take one for the team.

eyesonu
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 9:36 am

Alba, the delicate little member of the thought police! Show me your badge!

Just to pull your delicate little chain, I hope you freeze your ass off this winter! Or at least frost bite to your little PC fingers.

Robert of Texas
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 10:30 am

I just hate “Hate” speech… I also hate cauliflower. Is that also a crime?

You, as many many others, need to learn the difference between a threat (or intimidation) and dark irony. It would be ironic if people attending a conference on Global Warming ended up freezing to death. That doesn’t mean we would not be saddened at the loss of life, nor would we choose to cause it…unlike the various organizations like “Insulate Britain” who kill and call it collateral damage.

Hate is for the Greens and Liberals who can be easily identified by their hypocrisy and intolerance of other’s ideas.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Robert of Texas
October 6, 2021 11:41 am

Folks freezing to death at COP26 would be like “The Day After Tomorrow”.

ATheoK
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 10:38 am

Wishing ill of other people? That definitely strikes me as potential hate speech.”

Classic method of the cancel culture. Twist words until the seem to mean their worst.

freeze to death”

Is an extremely common colloquial phrase used by virtually everyone who is cold at some moment.
Does that mean they intend suicide? Or harm to others?
No, it only means they are uncomfortably cold.

Graham
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 3:20 pm

Alba lighten up .
All these attendees at the Glasgow Climate meeting have bricks for brains .
A severe cold snap occurring while in Glasgow might trigger some of them to THINK for themselves .
We have our Climate Change Minister James Shaw ( member of the Green party ) flying with a retinue from New Zealand to attend .
What a hypocrite lecturing us about our fossil fuel use and then flying around the world to attend a talk fest.
A few more cold winters might wake up the population of the world that we are all being lied to so that politicians can gain more control over us .
Graham farming to feed the world .

Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 11:54 pm

Nonsense, the liberals don’t care who freezes as long as they control their money. Why not talk about it? Seems like a beneficial conversation to me.

Peta of Newark
October 6, 2021 2:39 am

Quote:”Japan Stocking Fossil Fuels for Winter (part of global pattern)
Absolutely true and very sensible.

Even the UK is also doing it, ‘cept we’re stocking up on Wind Power
(at the Tory Party conference)

Thank you Boris
What could possibly go wrong

Last edited 1 month ago by Peta of Newark
M Courtney
Reply to  Peta of Newark
October 6, 2021 3:43 am

This is all going to plan. Putin’s plan.
Remember, he who pays the piper calls the tune:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-report-donors-boris-johnson-conservative-party-2020-7

The UK voted for the traitors and now we are handing over our sovereignty for roubles.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  M Courtney
October 6, 2021 4:10 am

he who pays the piper calls the tune

I think Putin is the piper these days. Everyone is paying him…

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 6, 2021 4:45 am

I have no desire to regurgitate images of empires, but the Roman Empire after its peak, started to recruit more & more mercenaries into its army because the Roman citizens were shirking their duty to serve in it preferring the good life instead, thus setting the downfall & collapse of that empire in motion. The British Empire was slightly different, it didn’t collapse through decline, we simply gave it back in gratitude for the help rendered in defeating the Axis powers!!! Any nation, such as the UK, that sets off relying on more & more input from foreign climes is destined to fall into collapse over time, when it should be building its industries & businesses into healthy competitive & prosperous enterprises. Energy, especially cheap & reliable energy, is essential for any modern nation to thrive economically, its basic “economics”!!! I wouldn’t be surprised if I learnt that Russia has been sponsoring the green movement for years to dismantle nations like the UK, & even the USA through stealth. I understand they sponsored the British Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND). The CCP has been exporting its brand of capitalism to Africa for years, at the expense of the West!!! FYI, as many of you know, China has no free-enterprise capitalism, only State- sponsored capitalism, two different beasts entirely!!!

Reply to  Alan the Brit
October 6, 2021 8:51 am

I’d take a battalion of Gurkhas over just about anything if in a tough spot.

Philo
Reply to  Alan the Brit
October 6, 2021 11:54 am

I’ll put in a little upbeat for Brit ingenuity. I take a medicine, for breathing problems so I don’t choke. It works best when it is encapsulated or turned into a “slow release” tablet. There are few worthwhile ones in the US. In Britain It’s made in a small pharma lab- one tab morning and evening. Very convenient. Very effective. Not very much more than the raw drug and MUCH more convenient.

The plain stuff must be taken every four hours, day or night. How helpful! 6am-10-2pm-6-10-2am-6am…..I’m delirious. which side is up.
Thanks BRITS!

StephenP
Reply to  Peta of Newark
October 6, 2021 5:17 am

Activists are very fond of the precautionary principle, so surely it is sensible to stock up on winter fuel, given that cold kills more people than heat.
There is no King Wenceslas to bring us peasants some pine logs when the snow lies all about, deep and crisp and even.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Peta of Newark
October 6, 2021 11:07 am

What do the store shelves look like now in the small heater section of hardware?

Alba
October 6, 2021 3:03 am

THE UK Chancellor of the Exchequer hasn’t a clue what net-zero will cost.
There was also a question about the cost of net zero by the mid-century, to which Rishi claimed “you can’t put a single figure on it…it’s an ambitious target”, adding that “innovation” was also crucial to hitting that target – not just spending. He did, at least, also reinforce that the upcoming spending review will force government departments to judge spending targets by outcomes.
https://order-order.com/2021/10/05/rishi-on-cost-of-net-zero-you-cant-put-a-single-figure-on-it/

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 3:18 am

Innovation is also not something you can simply switch on light a light switch. One can depend on hard work and the increased productivity that can follow but to hope for certain innovation that will produce cheap energy is wishful at best. We need rather to make the best use of what we have got and only replace it when something better and cheaper is available. To legislate innovation is as foolish as legislating climate engineering.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
October 6, 2021 4:50 am

You cannot legislate against stupidity either, sadly!!!

Don Perry
Reply to  Alan the Brit
October 6, 2021 7:39 am

However, the US is currently legislating FOR stupidity.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Don Perry
October 6, 2021 8:46 am

Sadly, yes. Keep us in your prayers.

Vuk
Reply to  Alba
October 6, 2021 3:22 am

Uk Chancellor’s family are billionaires, they heat their properties by burning ‘renewable’ indian banknotes.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Vuk
October 6, 2021 5:00 am

I recall that splendid fantasy tv show starring the late Ian Hendry & Ronald Lacey, as two travelling astronauts journeying around the galaxy, when they landed on a strange planet where there were no poor people, only wealthy elites, but it did have giant cats & dogs as big/tall buildings. When the wealthy elites were feeling a tad chilly, they would instruct their butlers to turn up the heating. So, the butler would disappear & go to the basement, which was packed with the proletariat bunched together all hot & sweaty, & the butler would simply crack the whip to get them to move around more quickly to generate more heat. I fear the writing is on the wall for some of us!!! 1984 & V for Vendetta were not supposed to be instruction manuals!!! Please tell the elites somebody ASAP!!!

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Alan the Brit
October 6, 2021 5:01 am

“tall as buildings”, that should have read, apologies.

Sara
Reply to  Alan the Brit
October 6, 2021 6:09 am

The Cloud People vs. the Mud People, from Star Trek…..

ozspeaksup
October 6, 2021 3:08 am

with ageing nuke plants regular typhoons etc making sure they have coal n gas is a good move
mind you it WOULD be fun to see turbines on the coast get blown over

Ron Long
October 6, 2021 3:10 am

It’s encouraging to see Common Sense follow a Reality Check. Things won’t get actually rational until events like COP26 disappear. Waiting. Waiting. OK, when the money for nonsense dries up, then Common Sense will take hold.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Ron Long
October 6, 2021 7:50 am

Who controls the nonsense valve and why does it exist in the first place?

fretslider
October 6, 2021 3:14 am

Good news and bad news.

I live near a large common in South London. Around 25 years ago a tree sprouted in my (smallish) garden – An Ash (Fraxinus excelsior) Its now gotten to the point where it’s going to have to come down, which is a shame and bad news for the birds, cats, squirrels and foxes etc. It’s getting too big. Funnily enough, my local council know of this tree through previous planning applications and they said nothing. That does puzzle me.

The good news is I can use the wood in the fireplace – gas prices went up 20% yesterday.

UK gas prices jump 20% after explosion hits Austria’s main gas hub”

Subscribe to read | Financial Times (ft.com)

It’s going to be a tight winter.

Reply to  fretslider
October 6, 2021 3:23 am

Ash is a good burning wood when suitably dried.
The council are only interested if it has a tree preservation order. Be careful here, anyone can register a tree preservation order for any tree (great for encouraging social harmony). You are entitled to cut down trees that you planted yourself.

fretslider
Reply to  Philip Mulholland
October 6, 2021 3:30 am

Like I said, it sprouted out of nowhere all by itself. Which was cool at the time.

But given how large Ash trees get, I would have thought they might have had something to say. It’s a regular terraced street – the gardens are modest in size

TPOs round these parts usually go to Oaks.

M Courtney
Reply to  fretslider
October 6, 2021 3:56 am

My church had a silver birch growing in the middle of the car park. Very inconvenient and roots damaging the road surface. It had a TPO.

Took about five years before we were allowed to remove it. And even then we couldn’t move it to somewhere else as originally planned. That’s because the TPO was only removed when the tree was dead.

Someone must have bumped it and spilt diesel on the roots.
Never did find out how that happened.

Ron Long
Reply to  M Courtney
October 6, 2021 5:25 am

M Courtney, I presume from your admission of guilt that the Statue of Limitations (expire of legal action) has expired?

M Courtney
Reply to  Ron Long
October 6, 2021 6:37 am

I admit nothing. It was clearly an accident. Just never found out who had the accident or when.

Dave Fair
Reply to  M Courtney
October 6, 2021 11:12 am

Small acts of rebellion have a habit of morphing into large acts of rebellion. Smug autocrats beware.

StephenP
Reply to  Philip Mulholland
October 6, 2021 9:23 am

There is a poem about the different qualities of wood for burning.

Enquire Now
Firewood Poems
(1) The Firewood Poem:
By Lady Celia Congreve
Published in the Times: March 2nd 1930

Beechwood fires are bright and clear
If the logs are kept a year.
Chestnut’s only good they say,
If for logs ’tis laid away.

Make a fire of Elder tree,
Death within your house will be.
But ash new or ash old,
Is fit for a queen with crown of gold

Birch and fir logs burn too fast,
Blaze bright and do not last.
It is by the Irish said,
Hawthorn bakes the sweetest bread.

Elm wood burns like churchyard mould,
E’en the very flames are cold.
But ash green or ash brown,
Is fit for a queen with golden crown

Poplar gives a bitter smoke,
Fills your eyes and makes you choke.
Apple wood will scent your room,
Pear wood smells like flowers in bloom.

Oaken logs, if dry and old,
Keep away the winter’s cold.
But ash wet or ash dry,
A king shall warm his slippers by.

__________ oOo __________

beng135
Reply to  StephenP
October 7, 2021 2:53 am

That’s true, “green” ash wood contains less moisture than other “green” woods.

Vuk
Reply to  fretslider
October 6, 2021 3:31 am

Likewise near common, but in SW london, had old silver birch (Betula pendula), chopped down 2 years ago since it was in a danger of falling down. I wish I kept the wood, easy to be now clever with hindsight.

fretslider
Reply to  Vuk
October 6, 2021 3:36 am

Nobody really saw this car crash coming, not even Wandsworth Council – “The Brighter Borough”

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  fretslider
October 6, 2021 4:18 am

It’s going to be a tight winter.

I moved to the tropics 10 years ago to avoid cold winters. 10 years before that, I moved to Australia to avoid any sub-zero temperatures outside of my freezer.

I’m using less a/c every year, and more pool heating. I have 10 acres of trees, but they are reserved for barbecues!

Dennis
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 6, 2021 7:41 pm

My firewood needs have been increasing by the new year and I live on the Mid North East Coast of New South Wales, Australia. The periods of snow falling on the Great Dividing Range to the West are adding to the cooling.

I have read in local area history books that during the 1900s there were some very cold years here and even a light ice covering on waterways at times, plus heavy frosts, but I have yet to experience these weather conditions.

Maybe not too many future years away?

Ron Long
Reply to  fretslider
October 6, 2021 5:23 am

Sorry, fretslider, but be sure to cook and eat some of those squirrels with the ash fire wood.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Ron Long
October 6, 2021 11:46 am

Squirrels are very tasty but small and it is difficult to get them out of their coats….

ResourceGuy
Reply to  fretslider
October 6, 2021 7:54 am

That would not be the case in NY where even non-native plants are protected such as bamboo thickets that start to choke small streams on farmland. Biden renewed that intrusion at the national level to regulate water courses down to the level of a local ditch on private land.

Rusty
October 6, 2021 3:31 am

UK natural gas price went up 40% this morning. We are entering a perfect storm created by 30 plus years of woeful energy policy compounded by all the climate change nonsense.

What most people don’t realise is as much natural gas is used in industry as is used domestically. It’s not just going to be fertiliser manufacturers shutting down with the knock on effect to other sectors of the supply chain.

Putin and Gazprom are laughing their socks off as the UK refuses to frack huge amounts of shale gas sat under our feet.

Dennis
Reply to  Rusty
October 6, 2021 7:43 pm

Is the Royal Navy considering a sailing ships revival?

beng135
Reply to  Dennis
October 7, 2021 2:56 am

Yes, but the sails are to be replaced w/giant wind-turbine blades.

M Courtney
October 6, 2021 3:39 am

A key point here is that climate is irrelevant. It matters not if, on average, the number of harsh winters declines.
It matters if you are not ready for the harsh winter that still happens.

Climate is of academic interest.
The weather kills.

Last edited 1 month ago by M Courtney
Zig Zag Wanderer
October 6, 2021 4:14 am

Is it just me thinking this, or are the usual trolls unusually quiet these days?

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 6, 2021 5:58 am

What should they tell, they have no arguments, never had, never will have.

beng135
Reply to  Krishna Gans
October 7, 2021 2:59 am

7Up, never had it, never will. Ah, ha-ha-ha-ha-ah.

0.jpg
Last edited 1 month ago by beng135
M Courtney
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 6, 2021 6:39 am

It’s the Tory Party Conference.
Griff, Loydo et al are all probably basking in the glow of Boris’ Building Back Better with windmills and no grip of the numbers.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  M Courtney
October 6, 2021 11:50 am

So, you all are stuck with Building Back Better, too?

Philo
Reply to  richard
October 6, 2021 12:07 pm

Are the powers that be going to up approvals on increased diesel purchases??

Bruce Cobb
October 6, 2021 4:30 am

Japan, which has a bird’s eye view, is aware of the power shortage in China. So, to avoid similar situation at home, Japan will not restrict the use of coal, natural gas and oil during winter months.

Here’s a clue, Japan; If it is bad to restrict the use of FFs during the winter months, don’t you think the same applies for the rest of the year?

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  richard
October 6, 2021 11:56 am

But the referenced Vox article is calling for more radical climate change activism in the US.

Derek Wood
October 6, 2021 5:17 am

Just one of the many infuriating things about this ridiculous energy situation, is that whichever main party we voted for in the UK, we we would still be in the same, waterlogged, sinking boat. All of our main political groups are afflicted with the same disease: Rank stupidity!

ResourceGuy
October 6, 2021 6:15 am

Preparedness and practical national strategy are foreign concepts in the U.S. We have only good guy bad guy industry targets for Party politics, crisis to crisis news, and blame game. Off in the background we have DOE staying far away from practical concepts in it’s “we don’t pick winners” mantra and EPA is closing off or shutting down most opportunities except the information science of selling your identity. It was private incentives that produced the most oil wells and coal fields on the planet here and identified resources. Now the focus is in banning them dismantling them. Wanna buy a million stolen ids?

Steve Richards
October 6, 2021 6:25 am

Boris is too embarrassed to order emergency fracking and coal mining in the UK. I feel he and his government have become a ‘Clear and present danger’ with his energy policies.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Steve Richards
October 6, 2021 11:58 am

Considering the startup time for such emergency measures, the fuel will be flowing by summer. Not much help. Why is it that Government actions are always out of phase?

c1ue
October 6, 2021 6:36 am

Middleton certainly should comment, but for me personally this is no surprise.
The fall in US oil fracking due to cheap loans no longer being pushed down that industry’s throat led to a dramatic fall in new drilling. Failed new oil fracking drilling had led to a significant amount of natural gas – fracked oil being basically closer to condensate to start with. I believe something like 40% of the US natural gas supply in 2019 was due to this fracked oil drilling. This enormous runoff is a major reason why natural gas prices were ~$2-ish for a long, long time – and ~$2-ish natural gas is why utility companies were falling all over themselves to replace coal with natural gas.
Now remove half or more of the oil-fracked natural gas supply and combine it with COVID demand recovery. No surprise why oil and natural gas prices have more than doubled in the last year.

On the China/Europe side: China is in a very public spat with Australia, which in turn was a major source of imported coal in China. This spat is forcing down coal supplies which in turn is likely why China is buying LNG like crazy plus also likely importing as much natural gas as they can via the nascent pipelines from Russia. The China-Russia gas pipeline started operating in December 2019.
So Europe, which is also dealing with COVID recovery demand plus a low wind/low solar situation, is competing with China for natural gas both from Russia and from LNG. The countries in the EU were also drawing down the natural gas supplies as they had curtailed a lot of economic activity during COVID including imports.
Will this continue for long? The scary part is we have only begun winter…

c1ue
Reply to  c1ue
October 6, 2021 6:44 am

I checked out EIA – fracking net production has been negative every single month since November 2020. So it isn’t just my impression. It isn’t an enormous fall any given month but it is double digit percentages over that span.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  c1ue
October 6, 2021 8:07 am

Asset sales and balance sheet clean up have been the main focus in the shale basins, not a surge in drilling. The rig count is moving up some each week so there will be some benefit there. The fundamentals of fracking shale are still in place–greatly reduced drilling risk across huge expanses, high productivity rates in the process, longer production life than the outsiders claim, and slightly less country risk than terrorists, Maduro, and asset forfeiture in the name of Karl Marx or any other excuse banner.

Bob Hunter
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 6, 2021 8:55 am

Asset & Balance sheet cleanup have also been the focus in Alberta companies. Alberta has had a problem getting product to market due to lack of pipelines. As well, Canada has a Prime Minister who passed a Bill giving the Federal Govt jurisdiction over new Oilsands Development (and yet Natural Resources are a Provincial responsibility) The PM said during the recent election “no new Oilsands Projects”. Add in, Biden cancelling the XL pipeline, and a few months later Biden asking OPEC & Russia to produce more oil.
ie What is a North American PNG executive to do? — pay down debt

Reply to  c1ue
October 6, 2021 9:16 am

The problem in Texas was they were producing more gas than could be moved to hubs, so everyone was losing money due to oversupply that couldn’t get to market. A pull back in production is the inevitable economic market response. As long as the government stays, the Hell out of market manipulation, things will correct themselves to deliver the most affordable product to end consumers.

Several large pipelines to help move gas to the GoM ports are nearing completion.

https://pgjonline.com/news/2021/september/enbridge-s-cameron-extension-pipeline-project-nearing-completion

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
October 6, 2021 12:02 pm

“As long as the government stays, [sic] the Hell out of market manipulation …” And pigs may fly. And Hell will have to freeze over first.

Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
October 7, 2021 12:34 am

I know. Wishful thinking on my part.
FDR made the 1930’s initial market Recession into a Decade long Depression with his attempts to help the unemployed with government jobs.

Vijay
Reply to  c1ue
October 6, 2021 9:19 pm

Despite a ban on Australian coal, the Chinese used some of it this week as they simply couldn’t withstand the energy crunch.

observa
October 6, 2021 7:22 am

Vijay Jayaraj (M.Sc., Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, England),

I do love that bit Vijay and it spells hope.

Reply to  observa
October 6, 2021 9:18 am

He is now based in India I believe where energy sanity still exists.

October 6, 2021 8:46 am

well written, but would like more data on what the stocks of Natural Gas are in Japan at the moment compared to 2019, the last full year unaffected by COVID.
Japan and South Korea both now depend heavily on the LNG tankers loading up out of Darwin, Australia. That gas comes via a 900km underseas pipeline from the world’s largest floating production platform in the Timor Sea. The Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and possibly the Gulf of Carpentaria still have significant undiscovered natural gas reserves that can keep Australia and the industries of Japan and S Korea running affordably for many decades to come. of course Australia will need a Navy capable of protecting these resources and infrastructure. So… Queue up some nuclear attack subs to keep pesky meddlers away.

n.n
October 6, 2021 9:34 am

The incredible, combustible, green hydrocarbon.

beng135
Reply to  n.n
October 7, 2021 3:06 am

If only it were edible….

Bill Parsons
October 6, 2021 9:43 am

“Right in the midst of a global political effort to reduce fossil fuel consumption, Japan is set to increase its fossil fuel use and imports as an expected colder-than-normal winter approaches.”

Smart move… the simplest path for “finding the order in complexity.”

An international trio of scientists shared the Nobel Prize in Physics Tuesday for pioneering ways to find the order hidden in complexity, laying the foundation for computer models that explore how human activity is changing global climate.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Bill Parsons
October 6, 2021 11:27 am

One of the three (receiving half the money) did actual physics on real materials. The other two inserted water vapor speculation into the then-new CliSciFi computer modeling industry. The Nobel Committee, populated by socialist Swedish politicians, did its part in the leadup to COP26.

markl
October 6, 2021 10:15 am

Reading between the lines……. people are putting up with the CC, renewables, net zero, electric car, etc. foolishness because it’s not worth their involvement to oppose it and as long as the resulting changes don’t immediately affect them. Most people don’t really care if someone wants to glue themselves to the street in protest unless it makes them late for work or entertainment. That doesn’t mean they’ll ignore their own safety and well being when the red flags start waving. In short, AGW may be a political and media darling but the people aren’t buying it and that’s why it comes in last on all the polls around the world for worrisome issues.

TonyG
Reply to  markl
October 7, 2021 7:43 am

“That doesn’t mean they’ll ignore their own safety and well being when the red flags start waving.”

I think the problem with that, though, is that it could be too late to do much at that point.

Philo
October 6, 2021 11:31 am

COP26 attendees believe themselves invincible. They won’t change until they freeze to death or run out of fuels with which to keep war away.

The second reason is that the COP is not at all about actual climate and change. It’s whole purpose has been global control and coordination of plans to do so. I don’t believe they will back out unless they, or their people more likely freeze to death!

October 6, 2021 11:51 pm

Stock up on coal and gas and stay warm, or invest in renewables and get poor and freeze. Seems like an easy choice, even ants can figure it out. Liberals brains don’t have the power of ant minds. Just let them freeze on their own, and let the rest of us alone.

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