From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
SEPTEMBER 22, 2021tags: cop26
By Paul Homewood
As you will recall, the Paris Agreement set a target of 2C warming from pre-industrial levels, but parties agreed to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. These of course were only “wishes”, and the Agreement had contained nothing of substance to meet either of these objectives.
Nevertheless, the upcoming COP26 is increasingly being presented as an opportunity to get global warming down from 2C to 1.5C. Even if you accept the basic premise of GHGs, this is a nonsense. As already pointed out, the national pledges made at Paris implied that emissions would carry on rising rapidly up to 2030, meaning that even 2C was not achievable. Now a new paper in Nature reveals just how far and how quickly emissions would have to be cut to meet the 1.5C target:
Emissions in 2019 were 34 GtCO2, giving the world another thirteen years with a budget of 460 Gt. If emissions continue to rise as they have since Paris, that figure will reduce to maybe just ten years.
Even the developed countries, which account for only a third of all carbon dioxide, are unlikely to cut by more than 10% in the next ten years, so to meet the 1.5C target then would effectively mean zero emissions after 2030, plainly an absurd proposition.
To meet that carbon budget would imply a halving of global emissions this decade, and then halving again in the 2030s. There is simply no way this is going to happen.
But that won’t stop the myth of the 1.5C target being kept alive.
I predict that COP26 will come up with a last minute, “save the planet” deal, just as Copenhagen and Paris did, which will of course be nothing of the sort. Instead it will be a smokescreen to disguise the utter failure of the whole farrago.
My guess is that China will offer up some minor concession, probably centred around carbon intensity, but absolutely no commitment at all to reducing emissions this decade. India will offer even less, probably only some extra pledges on renewable energy, tied to hundreds of billions more in climate aid. Everybody will pat themselves on the back. And in five years time the absurd Matt McGrath will be warning once again that we only have x weeks to save the planet again.
Be warned. We will be told that the world has finally committed to keeping temperature rise below 1.5C, and we must therefore play our full part by destroying our economy. Meanwhile China, India and the rest of the developing world will carry on regardless.
We were told the same lie in 2015. Don’t fool for it again.
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Why not just wait and let the current downward phase of the AMO take us down without any effort on oue part?
There is no evidence showing that a certain amount of CO2 added to the Earth’s atmosphere will result in a certain temperature rise. There’s no evidence for a temperature rise at all based on CO2.
So these people who claim they can control the Earth’s temperatures to 1.5C or 2C are just blowing smoke. They have no explanation to demonstrate how what they claim is true. They just make the claim and expect the rest of us to accept it as established fact.
It’s all unsubstantiated assertions from the alarmists.
Saying something is so, doesn’t necessarily make it so, but that’s the way the UN IPCC Charlatans and the other alarmists are behaving, as though it does. That would be because assertions are all the alarmists have. They don’t have any evidence, so they try to bluff their way through with scary assertions.
But the 1.5C line gets repeated endlessly by others too lazy to check the fraud level involved.
Unless Western nations begin building nuclear power plants to provide electrical power, the rest of this is just noise. Eventually clueless places like the U.K., Australia, Germany, California, and Texas will realize the unreliable energy is a complete waste of time and money.
https://www.power-eng.com/nuclear/nuclear-smr-firm-nuscale-power-exploring-coal-to-small-reactor-project-in-poland/
Nuclear SMR firm NuScale Power exploring coal to small reactor project in Poland
By Rod Walton -9.24.2021
“U.S. next-gen nuclear reactor developer NuScale Power has signed a memorandum of understanding with two Polish companies to explore converting coal-fired power plant sites to small modular reactor (SMR) generation facilities in that country.
Oregon-based NuScale joined with KGHM Polska Miedź and Piela Business Engineering to plot a path forward on deploying the SMR technology as a coal repurposing solution for KGHM’s industrial processes in Poland. KGHM is involved in copper and silver production, while Piela is a consulting and engineering advisor.
Nuclear reactor units do not emit carbon dioxide when generating power, so are considered possible parts of the aim toward net-zero or lower greenhouse gas emissions to deal with climate change. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved NuScale’s SMR design, while the company is still working with partners to develop and build a physical plant by the end of the decade.
end excerpt
Some people are trying to think ahead.
Seems like a pretty easy target. Just un-adjust the historical temperature record to bring it back up to what was measured and the warming is gone.
Exactly right. If we go by the written surface temperature record, CO2 shows itself not to be a problem because it is no warmer today than it was in the recent past, although there is much more CO2 in the air today than in the past, yet it is no warmer even with the additional CO2.
Alarmists want us to think we are living in the hottest times in human history but the only way they can make such a claim is to distort the written temperature record using their computers, and that is what they do, and then claim the warmth of today is unprecedented.
The written temperature record puts the lie to this Human-caused Climate Change scam.
There is no unprecedented heat today.
We will be saved from 1.5 degrees centigrade rise by nature.
The Beaufort Gyre will go into fast discharge mode and release 500 cubic miles of fresh water into the North Atlantic dramatically reducing the salinity of the North Atlantic Overturning Circulation (think Gulf Stream) seriously disrupting the Thermohaline circulation worldwide. This will cause colder winters and cooler shorter summers particularly in North East America and Europe.
The sun is just at the start of a Solar Grand Minimum (google “Maunder minimum”) which will last until 2070 (Theodor Landscheidt with coldest time between 2035-2043) or until 2065 (Valentina Zharkova with the coldest time being 2028-2032) depending on which research you read and believe.
We are in for a rough time, particularly our children and grandchildren, and all that the politicians can do is take away the only reliable means of powering our world. You couldn’t make it up and write a novel about it; nobody would believe the stupidity of it all..
Zharkova says the solar grand minimum started last year and we should prepare for the global mean temperature to be 1.0C cooler than today during the period 2031-2043.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243
In the lecture I watched she said 2028-2032. No matter what the detailed date is it is far closer than the 2100 beloved of the warmistas and I estimate 75% of people alive today are likely to experience it and that should focus people’s minds.
The temperatures dropped 2.0C from the 1930’s to the late 1970’s in North America.
I enjoyed the late 1970’s, weatherwise, and otherwise. 🙂
If we counted from the “hottest year evah!”, 1934, the temperature drop from 1934 to the late 1970’s was 2.5C. You won’t see this same amount of cooling on a bogus, bastardized, instrument-era Hockey Stick chart. You have to look at an unmodified, regional temperature chart to get the true picture.
Unless we get much colder than the late 1970’s, I don’t think the majority of us have anything to worry about weatherwise, although cooler does have detrimental effects on crops so that is something we may have to deal with, especially considering the population numbers we are now dealing with.
Here is the U.S. regional surface temperature chart (Hansen 1999:
And then here’s how the Data Manipulators bastardize the chart and make 1934 cooler than 1998:
Keep in mind that 1998 and 2016 are statistically tied for the warmest year since the 1930’s.
North America for one, has been in a temperature downtrend since the 1930’s. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased since the 1930’s, yet North America is in a temperature downtrend. Where’s all this CO2 heat the alarmists keep talking about?
And here is a side-by-side comparison of the Hansen 1999 US chart with a bogus, bastardized Hockey Stick chart.
In the text you can read Hansen’s lame explanation for why the Hockey Stick chart profile looks so different from the profile of the US chart.
Keep in mind that the US regional temperature chart profile, which shows it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century as it is today, is duplicated all over the world by other unmodified regional surface temperature charts. All the regional charts look like the US chart.
None of the unmodified, regional surface temperature chart profiles from around the world resemble the bogus Hockey Stick chart profile.
The Hockey Stick chart is all by itself in its depiction of the Early Twentieth Century temperature profile. The regional charts do not agree with the computer-generated Hockey Stick chart.
The regional charts show it is not any warmer now than in the recent past. The Hockey Stick charts show we are living in the hottest times in human history.
So who is lying to you? The temperature recorder from a century ago who never even heard of Human-caused Climate Change, or the computer programmer with a Human-caused Climate Change agenda who manipulates the temperature record to promote the scam?
I’m going with the unbiased witness.
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research//briefs/1999_hansen_07/
The url above was moved to another place on NASA’s website in the recent past, and the one above showed a “404” not found when connecting to it. Now, it’s working again for some reason. That’s good.
“We will be saved from 1.5 degrees centigrade rise by nature.”
Unfortunately, yes. Another natural 1.5 degrees, even on top of the natural 1.2 would be great for the planet. Back to Roman Warm Period times of plenty.
Carry On Regardless? Wan’t there a British movie by that name? Ah yes, “the fifth in the series of 31 Carry On films (1958–1992)” according to La Wik.
I was wondering when the special needs kid was going to show up. Are you all right, dear? Do you need a wee-wee?
Is that you Ingraham?
PS: Peak Oil is alot like global warming and fusion. It’s always a decade off.
Is that you Ingraham?
So, mankind’s use of 40% of their current fossil fuel utilization rate will be consdiered norma and doesn’t raise temperature?
Kinda odd, 60% alleged reduction only drops the anomaly 25%?
That suggests eliminating the remaining 40% will only achieve another 16% temperature reduction?
Looks to me that their rectum sourced numbers are leading them nowhere.
The real problem that the climate scientologists identified decades ago is that cheap energy lead to a hockey stick graph of human population.
That is and always was the real problem, that cheap energy = more humans.
The club of Rome, the IPCC, green peace, Greta, all a dedicated to kicking out the cheap energy leg of the stool which will then crash the human population.
That is the goal.
AGW is just the tool
These people HATE humans. It’s Friday night, millions of them are settling in front of the TV to watch eco porn on Discover and other channels like “after humans” and “the great cataclysm”, etc with a glass of wine and a box of Kleenex
These people all need serious help
As you will recall, the Paris Agreement set a target of 2C warming from pre-industrial levels, but parties agreed to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C.
Oh I’ve recalled that quite often based on belief in computer models and the very very very etc… last chance before I’m doomed. However I have a wee problem with unwavering belief in computer modelling-
‘A bit of a mystery’: why hospital admissions for Covid in England are going down (msn.com)
Not to mention who is plugging in the data and what data and why-
‘Misinformation fuels conspiracy theoriesWhen asked why researchers would make so many mistakes or worse, deliberately mislead, misrepresent and falsify data, he says: “The real question is why none of the groups promoting ivermectin as a mass treatment for Covid-19 did their basic due diligence, because much of the fraud is really not that hard to identify.”
Chaccour believes that pressure on academics plays a role.
“A lot of people are working at entry level and on PhDs, putting in 120 hours a week for less than minimum wage,” he says. “The more you publish and the bigger the paper is, the more recognition the journal gets that publishes it, the closer you are to a more stable lifestyle and career recognition.”
In the case of ivermectin, recognition has come from researchers that cite the papers, pushing the papers up the academic rankings and giving the journals or websites where they are published prominence. But politicians, celebrities and journalists are also promoting the findings.’
Fraudulent ivermectin studies open up new battleground between science and misinformation (msn.com)
Why would I expect a university degree to suddenly confer more honesty integrity or simply resistance to fads or Groupthink upon the awardee? As for their science being settled….?
We are very unlikely to get 2 C more warming unless we go past 1000 ppm.
We got about 0.5 C for the 45% we added so far, so thats about 0.8C per doubling (close to Lindzens figure).
The earth really is not that sensitive to CO2, it is pretty much saturated and partly overlapped by water vapour.
Why would anyone want to enter discussion with this crowd?
A well-spoken mob that obviously delights in grinding people into verbal debris for mere mentions, or mis-statements, let alone honest questions. You guys goad one another into toxic supremacy battles. Tiresome. You don’t win arguments endlessly deriding character profiles as petty ivory tower blood-sport, or one-note-samba dancing around CO2 fetishes.
I come for the graphs and weigh topics, but know this: you ARE fanatics.
It’s a reasonable observation.