By P Gosselin on 22. May 2021
If you repeat a truth often enough, then it stays that way.
Comprehensive analyses of data again show no link between rising CO2 and tropical storm intensity or frequency. It’s important to repeat that regularly.
The latest comes from statistics expert, Zoe Phin, who looks at the alarmists’ claim that increasing CO2 emissions are leading to more frequent and intense Atlantic hurricanes.
Alarmist claims cost nothing, and so easily made. Zoe Phin looks at whether the hurricane alarmist claim holds up.
First Zoe looked at the (HURDAT2) data to find out if the first of the two claims (increasing frequency) is true. At first glance it would appear so.
But Zoe asks if the method of measuring the frequency really is sensible and if it maybe weren’t better to measure the amount of time the Atlantic spends in hurricane mode? To find out, Zoe plotted the hurricane hours data and the 10-year moving average:
Source: Zoe Phin.
From the data, Zoe concludes: “The amount of hours of hurricanes per year shows absolutely no trend!”
Next she looks at the second claim: hurricane intensity is getting worse – thus potentially more destructive.
To find out Zoe sensibly uses the hurricane’s lowest pressure as a proxy. “The lower the pressure the more intense the storm.”
She plots the data for all the hurricanes, their corresponding lowest lowest pressure values:
Source: Zoe Phin.
No trend in 170 years!
There was an upward trend from 1970 to about 2005, but then intensity waned even as CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere climbed steadily. The peak level at about 2005 was very like in the 1920s, some 100 years ago when CO2 was much lower.
Zoe summarizes her findings:
There is absolutely no trend in hurricane intensity in nearly 170 years!
Clearly, climate alarmists are wrong in regard to Atlantic hurricanes.”
Confirmed by other independent results
Zoe’s results of course come as no surprise to those who look at the data.
Other leading scientists have reached the same conclusions: Hurricanes have not been getting stronger or more frequent. For example, Klotzbach et al (2018):
Or Dr. Ryan Maue on global cyclone activity since 1970, who cites Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.:
Or Zhao et al 2018 on western north Pacific cyclones:
Japan seeing downward cyclone trend
Another example comes from Japanese NTZ contributor, Kirye, who plotted the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) data on Pacific typhoons:
Data source: JMA
Alarmists obviously in la-la land
Clearly arguing with alarmists on this subject is a waste of time. The data are in and the results are pretty clear: CO2 is not driving much of anything, let alone typhoons.