Claim: Antarctic Peninsula warming up due to heat in Tasman sea

Heating of the Tasman sea warms up the climate of Antarctic Peninsula via changes in wind patterns, new study by Japanese and Australian scientists shows

RESEARCH ORGANIZATION OF INFORMATION AND SYSTEMS

Research News

IMAGE
IMAGE: HEATING IN TASMAN SEA CAUSES WARM WINTERS AND MELTING ICE IN THE ANTARCTIC. view more CREDIT: KAZUTOSHI SATO (KITAMI INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY)

The melting of the Earth’s ice cover intensified in the 20th century, with glaciers and sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic regions melting at alarming speeds. In fact, The Antarctic Peninsula (AP), which is the only landmass of Antarctica extending out past the Antarctic Circle, was found to be one of the most rapidly warming regions on the planet during the second half of the 20th century. This rapid change in climate has raised serious concerns of rising sea levels the world over.

Multiple factors have been associated with the melting of the ice cover: the primary factor being the greenhouse gas emissions from human activities that cause warming up of the atmosphere and the oceans and the consequent ice melting. Apart from this, atmospheric variations, ocean currents, and wind patterns also play a significant role. Now, a collaborative group of scientists from Japan and Australia–led by Assistant Professor Kazutoshi Sato from Kitami Institute of Technology and Associate Professor Jun Inoue from National Institute of Polar Research in Japan–has focused efforts on understanding how fluctuations in these climatic factors affect the warming of the Antarctic. They have documented their findings in a brand-new article published in Nature Communications.

Previous studies have examined the relationship between the wind dynamics over the Southern Ocean (also called SO; located north of Antarctica) and climate variability in tropical oceans. It was found that heating in tropical regions generates atmospheric waves called “Rossby wave trains” from the tropics to the Antarctic region via the SO, which causes heating of the West Antarctic region. Interestingly, Rossby waves are an attempt of nature to balance heat in the atmosphere as they transfer heat from the tropics to the poles and cold air towards the tropics.

On the path of understanding the warming of AP, Dr. Sato points out, “The impacts of climate variabilities over the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere on this Antarctic warming have yet to be quantified”. His team addressed this gap by looking at the climate changes in the Tasman Sea located between Australia and New Zealand and the SO and drew correlations with temperature variations in the AP.

Dr. Sato and his team analyzed the temperature data from six stations in AP and the wind and cyclone patterns over the Tasman sea and the SO from 1979 to 2019. They found that even without unusual heating in the tropics, only the heating in the Tasman Sea modifies the wind patterns over the SO and forces the Rossby waves to move even deeper into the Amundsen sea low, a low-pressure area lying to the west of the AP. This larger pressure gradient causes stronger colder winds towards the poles. The meandering wind stream moves towards the AP, resulting in the warming of this region. Additionally, this effect was found to be prominent in the winter months when the cyclones are more active. “We have shown that warm winter episodes in the Tasman Sea influence warm temperature anomalies over key regions of West Antarctica, including the AP, through a poleward shift of South Pacific cyclone tracks”, Dr. Sato summarizes.

The ever-increasing warming of the AP–rather, the whole of Antarctica at large–is a major concern plaguing climatologists all over the world. Commenting on the serious implications of this rapid rise in temperature and sea levels and the importance of the findings of their study, Dr. Inoue says, “Antarctic warming accelerates Antarctic ice sheet melting and contributes to the rise in sea levels across the world. Therefore, knowledge of the mechanisms of the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet would help scientists, policymakers, and administrations to devise measures for people who will be most affected by the rising sea levels.”

Dr. Sato and his team concludes by stating that the findings of their study can also aid the future forecast of ice sheet melting in Antarctica and consequent global sea level rise.

###

About Kitami Institute of Technology, Japan

Kitami Institute of Technology is a national university in Kitami, Hokkaido, Japan. It was founded as the Kitami Junior College of Technology on 1 April 1960 and it was chartered as a university on 1 April 1966. In 2004, it became part of the National University Corporation.

Website: https://www.kitami-it.ac.jp/en/

About Dr. Kazutoshi Sato from Katami Institute of Technology, Japan

Dr. Kazutoshi Sato is an Assistant Professor at Kitami Institute of Technology in Japan. He has worked as a Project Researcher at National Institute of Polar Research, Japan. His research group is interested in understanding climate variability and its effects on increasing sea levels.

About National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR)

The NIPR engages in comprehensive research via observation stations in Arctic and Antarctica. As a member of the Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS), the NIPR provides researchers throughout Japan with infrastructure support for Arctic and Antarctic observations, plans and implements Japan’s Antarctic observation projects, and conducts Arctic researches of various scientific fields such as the atmosphere, ice sheets, the ecosystem, the upper atmosphere, the aurora and the Earth’s magnetic field. In addition to the research projects, the NIPR also organizes the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition and manages samples and data obtained during such expeditions and projects. As a core institution in researches of the polar regions, the NIPR also offers graduate students with a global perspective on originality through its doctoral program. For more information about the NIPR, please visit: https://http://www.nipr.ac.jp/english/

About the Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS)

The Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS) is a parent organization of four national institutes (National Institute of Polar Research, National Institute of Informatics, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics and National Institute of Genetics) and the Joint Support-Center for Data Science Research. It is ROIS’s mission to promote integrated, cutting-edge research that goes beyond the barriers of these institutions, in addition to facilitating their research activities, as members of inter-university research institutes.

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philincalifornia
March 9, 2021 10:30 am

Speaking of the Antarctic, the NSIDC satellite still appears to be going a bit crazy:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Hit the Antarctic button.

Reply to  philincalifornia
March 9, 2021 10:51 am

There have been some days with errors.

fred250
Reply to  philincalifornia
March 9, 2021 11:10 am

I mentioned that few days ago.

A very rapid climb, but starting to ease back to normal now.

Have they fixed the sensors… is it real ?

Felix
Reply to  fred250
March 9, 2021 12:38 pm

More corrections. They have to apply them gradually to avoid drawing attention to them, and will only approach the previous figures as much as necessary, but no further.

Reply to  fred250
March 9, 2021 2:01 pm

Download the data and make your own chart.

fred250
Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 9, 2021 9:21 pm

I have, I posted a portion of it the other day.

comment image

John Tillman
Reply to  philincalifornia
March 9, 2021 2:52 pm

The fact remains that, while Arctic Sea ice declined from its near-century high in 1979 to its low in 2012, Antarctic ice grew, reaching its peak in 2014.

philincalifornia
Reply to  John Tillman
March 9, 2021 4:55 pm

I run a lab that uses a lot of equipment and was suspicious of some kind of instrument malfunction back then (even a summer intern would have been, if it was on our instruments), even more so after the record low Antarctic sea ice in 2017. It seems that Antarctic is going crazily upwards while Arctic ice was going crazily downwards for a while there. I’m guessing no critical thinking involved here, just CYA. Could be real but I’m skeptical.

Maybe the world authority on polar sea ice and polar bears, griff, can enlighten us all?

philincalifornia
Reply to  philincalifornia
March 10, 2021 5:12 am

Thanks for the dislike griff

Ron Long
March 9, 2021 10:38 am

The study of melting glaciers on the West Antarctica Peninsula? Try some actual research, like google “volcanically active west antarctica rift system” and try “mt erebus active lava lake largest in world”. If the ocean near West Antarctica is heating up you might consider the very active rift system, complete with active volcanoes, the cross all of SW Antarctica and extend along the West Antarctica Peninsula. Rossby Waves? Is that the origin of the very cold atmospheric river that dumped an impressive amount of snow on the pre-Andes, visible from my office window, during February, the equivalent of the northern hemisphere Dog Days of August?

tom0mason
Reply to  Ron Long
March 9, 2021 11:29 am

Yes Ron Long,
And they are between the Antarctic peninsular and South America
From https://www.livescience.com/15006-underwater-volcanoes-discovered-antarctica.html

Huge Underwater Volcanoes Discovered Near Antarctica

The group of 12 underwater mountains lies south of the South Sandwich Islands — desolate, ice-covered volcanoes that rise above the southern Atlantic Ocean about halfway between South America and South Africa and erupted as recently as 2008. It’s the first time such a large number of undersea volcanoes has been found together in the Antarctic region.

Reply to  Ron Long
March 9, 2021 12:10 pm

There are at least 91 volcanoes down there …

Volcanoes.jpg
WXcycles
Reply to  John Shewchuk
March 9, 2021 1:48 pm

But still doesn’t make a scrap of difference, the air above those volcanoes right now is -20C, and -10C to sea level. Any basal melting will be replaced with compacting snowfall above. The whole thing is a bunch of hand-waving and “the sky is falling claims”.

“Feed me Leroy!” – Little Shop of Horrors

We grew these insatiably dishonest grandstanders at the local university.

Loydo
Reply to  John Shewchuk
March 9, 2021 6:42 pm

Try some actual research, like google “volcanically active…”

Erm, never mind.

When was the most recent activity? Less than a million years ago? How much has the heat flux changed in that time?
comment image

From here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL075609

Assuming there is some ‘modern’ increase in bedrock to ice flux (there isn’t), how exactly has that supposed to have warmed the atmosphere above through a kilometre of ice?

So, the most recent West Antarctic volcanic activity, when was it? Any takers?

Here is some further background reading about this myth… if there are any skeptics left here.
https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/studies-do-not-support-blogs-claim-that-volcanic-activity-is-causing-melting-of-west-antarctic-glaciers/

fred250
Reply to  Loydo
March 9, 2021 9:32 pm

Well we KNOW its NOTHING TO DO WITH ATMOSPHERIC CO2.

Loy-dodo again PROVEN TO BE WRONG !!

“Climatefeedback” is a haven of DELIBERATE IGNORANCE, just the place for loy-dodo to quote from..

https://www.auroraexpeditions.com.au/blog/active-volcanoes-in-antarctica/

“With the discovery of 91 new volcanoes and many more potentially to be found, Antarctica is a hot bed of volcanic activity – helping to shape the landscape of this fascinating place.”

https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=295861

While the effects of volcanic heat on the Antarctic ice sheets is an active topic of research, this study provides the first geochemical evidence of a contemporary volcanic heat source, emphasizing the need to detect and understand volcanism, including in models of ice-sheet behavior. The greater understanding of volcanism could alter scientists’ perception of the mechanics of ice-sheet loss, including in the areas where the glaciers meet the sea.

Our finding of a substantial heat source beneath a major WAIS glacier highlights the need to understand subglacial volcanism.

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-volcanic-source-major-antarctic-glacier.html

“have discovered an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica.

The volcanic heat sources were found beneath the fastest moving and the fastest melting glacier in Antarctica, the Pine Island Glacier,” Loose said. “It is losing mass the fastest.”

Last edited 1 month ago by fred250
Loydo
Reply to  fred250
March 9, 2021 11:13 pm

Quite interesting but totally irrelevant. We can all see the evidence that there are volcanic formations. The question I’m asking – has there been any significant, recent changes to these formations? Any eruptions? Any earthquake swarms that might indicate moving magma? Any change in the heat flux?

That some of the volcanos were “discovered” recently, does not mean this is all a new thing. The magma chamber beneath Marie Byrd Land has been there a while:
“Whitney Peak, which is between 13.2 million and 13.7 million years old”

If nothing recent, then volcanism can clearly be ruled out as causing the warm anomalies in the last few decades, that’s assuming it could warm the air through hundreds of metres of ice in the first place, which of course is plainly ludicrous.

Bryan A
Reply to  Loydo
March 10, 2021 6:27 am

Loydo
I need to ask on the subject of volcanic activity…

Does a Volcano necessarily need to be in the midst of an active eruption to be a heat source for the ground above it?

Could a non-erupting volcano’s magma chamber provide sufficient latent heat to warm the surface under the ice to just above freezing?

Loydo
Reply to  Bryan A
March 10, 2021 3:18 pm

Of course, that has been happening since time immemoriam.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Loydo
March 10, 2021 6:15 pm

how exactly has that supposed to have warmed the atmosphere above through a kilometre of ice?”

….. well other than the fact that Antarctica has actually been cooling, but don’t let that stop the voices in your head having a say.

dk_
March 9, 2021 10:50 am

In which our doughty investigators announce, without a single mention of actual temperature measurements, their discovery of ocean currents.

Duker
March 9, 2021 10:59 am

the wind and cyclone patterns over the Tasman sea and the SO from 1979 to 2019″

AND the Southern Oscillation ( SO), the major decadal weather feature of the South Indian and South Pacific oceans.
Next thing well find the Mann uses his computer models to ‘suggest’ that too like the AMO doesnt exist

David Guy-Johnson
March 9, 2021 11:04 am

Where is all this alarming antarctic ice melting happening?

fred250
Reply to  David Guy-Johnson
March 9, 2021 11:14 am

It isn’t.

Its all in their fantasies.

Antarctic is colder now than for most of that last few thousand years

comment image

Bryan A
Reply to  fred250
March 9, 2021 12:24 pm

Looks more like a 1,000 year periodic sine wave for 2 of 3 graphs, W/A not so much

Last edited 1 month ago by Bryan A
John Tillman
Reply to  David Guy-Johnson
March 9, 2021 2:01 pm

There has been no warming at the South Pole since continuous recrod keeping began there in 1958.

Yet the dry air there is precisely where CO2 should have had the greatest warming effect.

A fail for the hypothesis of man-made GHE warming.

John Tillman
Reply to  fred250
March 10, 2021 3:41 pm

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains most of the freshwater on Earth. It puts the WAIS, Greenland and all montane glaciers in the shade, so to speak. Not to mention freshwater lakes, rivers and streams. Ice is not disappearing from the planet. Far from it.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
March 10, 2021 3:58 pm

The EAIS covers 98% of Antarctica, yet all the Team wants to talk about is the little WAIS, without mentioning its many volcanoes.

The EAIS contains about 61% of our planet’s freshwater. Its mass is growing, so a retreating glacier here or there isn’t a pimple on its posterior.

Reply to  John Tillman
March 12, 2021 6:07 pm

@John Tillman
“There has been no warming at the South Pole since continuous recrod keeping began there in 1958. Yet the dry air there is precisely where CO2 should have had the greatest warming effect. A fail for the hypothesis of man-made GHE warming.”

Not quite so. It is true that temperatures at the South Pole appear stable. See
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/166900
But your argument is flawed because you have not accounted for the fact that the South Pole is at an altitude of nearly 3000m and its mean temperature (-50 °C) is actually less than the temperature of the stratosphere. That means that instead of being a net emitter of heat into the atmosphere it is actually a slight absorber of heat from the stratosphere. An increased GHE would reduce this and so should make the South Pole COLDER. In reality the heat exchanges are so small anyway due to the small temperature difference between the South Pole and the stratosphere that no real change is likely to be seen either way.
More interesting is what happens around the edge of Antarctica. I have looked at the available data and found that the only significant warming is on the peninsula. See
https://climatescienceinvestigations.blogspot.com/2020/08/30-temperature-trends-in-antarctica.html
In other words, it is only the bit that is outside the Antarctic Circle that appears to be getting warmer. This is also the part with the greatest amount of human activity and significant humidity levels as temperatures rise above 0°C. In that sense you are probably right.

philincalifornia
Reply to  David Guy-Johnson
March 10, 2021 6:17 pm

In scientific retard’s heads ??

Vuk
March 9, 2021 11:06 am

OT, USA needs to keep an eye on these two.
Space News wrote: China, Russia enter MoU on international lunar research station
https://spacenews.com/china-russia-enter-mou-on-international-lunar-research-station/

Last edited 1 month ago by Vuk
rbabcock
Reply to  Vuk
March 9, 2021 1:46 pm

We have Elon Musk. I think his advantage is a big lack of bureaucracy in his organization and the ability to throw mud against the wall and see what sticks. The launch of SN8, SN9 and SN10 is a perfect example.

Jeff
March 9, 2021 11:11 am

I’m saddened that the heating of West Antarctic in media reports persistently overlooks the fact that it sits on a very active mantle plume.

Even a non-scientists can quite clearly see that the areas where it’s increasing in temperature correspond precisely with the most volcanically active areas, yet media reports ignore it like something hastily swept under the rug, and choose to blame it on “climate change” instead.

Signed

Baffled, saddened, and dismayed

PCman999
Reply to  Jeff
March 9, 2021 1:01 pm

I’m dismayed that supposedly competent scientists freak out about West Antarctica warming a bit and completely ignore the 90% of the rest of the continent that is not warming. Not GLOBAL WARMING if it only affects a fraction of Antarctica.

Loydo
Reply to  Jeff
March 9, 2021 7:03 pm

“a very active mantle plume”

Why do you say that?

fred250
Reply to  Loydo
March 9, 2021 9:36 pm

Because its a FACT !

Facts are an enema to you though, aren’t they loy-dodo

To you, facts are things you cannot digest !!

Last edited 1 month ago by fred250
Loydo
Reply to  fred250
March 9, 2021 10:38 pm

Very active compared to what?

John Tillman
Reply to  Loydo
March 10, 2021 4:03 pm

Compared to the vast majority of the surface of Earth, ie those areas not on the Ring of Fire or the other major volcanic and seismic zones.

Actual observational science as opposed to GIGO computer gaming:

Influence of a West Antarctic mantle plume on ice sheet basal conditions
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JB014423

West Antarctic Mantle Plume Hypothesis and Basal Water Generation
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910680I/abstract

Last edited 1 month ago by John Tillman
Walter Horsting
March 9, 2021 11:12 am
fred250
March 9, 2021 11:12 am

Where is their evidence of the Tasman sea warming up ?

Peter fraser
Reply to  fred250
March 9, 2021 3:23 pm

According to NIWA this Spring there was a blob of water off the west coast of New Zealand which was 3 to 4 degrees C.above normal. It seems to have mystappeared as marlin fisherman are reporting normal 21degree C. temperatures. I suppose the blob must have slid south, crossed the southern ocean and settled around the Antarctic Peninsular. Yeah Right.

fred250
Reply to  Peter fraser
March 9, 2021 9:37 pm

Ummm.. Tasman Sea is between Australia and New Zealand.

ie to the EAST of NZ.

RobR
Reply to  fred250
March 10, 2021 12:55 am

Fred, you need to rethink that comment. I live on the West Coast of NZ. House about 1 km from the Tasman Sea which is to the West. Australia is over the horizon somewhat further to the West. The Tasman Sea is definitely to the West of New Zealand.

ironicman
Reply to  RobR
March 10, 2021 8:44 pm

There is obviously some confusion, a marine heatwave some years ago in the Tasman Sea had an impact on Sydney Harbour corals.

The warm blob off the east coast of NZ is related to hydrothermal activity.

Doonman
March 9, 2021 11:14 am

Once again, the authors claim with no references or citations that atmospheric CO2 is warming the oceans. Why CO2 only warms the oceans in particular places and ignores others is never addressed.

Duker
Reply to  Doonman
March 9, 2021 12:48 pm

Maybe this is their reasoning
We have shown that warm winter episodes in the Tasman Sea influence warm temperature anomalies over key regions of West Antarctica, including the AP, through a poleward shift of South Pacific cyclone tracks”,

Pole ward shift of South Pacific cyclone tracks ? … we are talking about 1 or 2 per year , if that who effect the Tasman Sea.
Tasman Sea surface temp anonomaly has been higher then lower last 2-3 years , but cyclone tracks ( by then then they are ex cyclones) are definitely lesscomment image

WXcycles
Reply to  Duker
March 9, 2021 2:07 pm

Glaciers take decades or even centuries to melt. Transient SSTA blips are just noise. The notion of contriving this as a causation for alleged melting of glaciers on the other side of the Southern Ocean, is immediately laughable and eye-rolling stuff.

These alleged researchers are just muck-raking to attract funding from the great academic swill-pile.

Last edited 1 month ago by WXcycles
ATheoK
Reply to  Duker
March 9, 2021 3:43 pm

The warming is measured at various occupied research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21773-5

Their warm air temperature anomalies are tracked at “Figure 2a shows the differences in temperature at 700 hPa (T700) and SLP between warm and cold AP winters.”

700 hPa is a measurement from 9,882 feet (3012 meters). Likely modeled.
 
Warming Tasmanian currents are assumed because Sea Surface Temperatures are a bit elevated, sometimes… Also likely modeled.

Assumption on top of assumption on top of UHI contaminated temperatures mixed with warming claims then further mixed with melting ice claims by devout believers at news centers…

Ten years ago, commenters here would decry papers like this as not receiving passing grades in High School.

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Duker
March 9, 2021 5:28 pm

A question if I may. In the anomaly graph, just what actual surface temperature does the “0” represent?

Duker
Reply to  Tombstone Gabby
March 9, 2021 7:38 pm

I have no idea, I was trying to point out the silliness of it. the most they say is “Sea surface temperature anomaly: the difference between the long-term (1981-2010) average sea surface temperature and current sea surface temperature for a given time of year.”
The best we can say is that its ‘warmer in summer and cooler in winter” but if we put it all in big words others wont question it

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Duker
March 9, 2021 10:14 pm

I’d never played with ocean Surface Temperature at earth.nullschool so I went and had a look. But without having an idea about a ‘normal’ figure, interesting – but not very informative.

It did appear that sea surface temp was higher than surface air temperature by a degree or so. Thanks for the come-back…

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Tombstone Gabby
March 10, 2021 11:43 am

I’ve selected 40S, 160E as a spot to monitor. About an hour ago: 1024hPa, SST 64°, Air 59°. Current: 0.02kt, direction – at that speed, meaningless. (Another spreadsheet to make up.)

Duker
Reply to  Tombstone Gabby
March 10, 2021 2:02 pm

Thats great that you looked into the basics for us. It seems that its a temperate sea , not to hot or not too cold like the 3 bears porridge.

sparko
March 9, 2021 11:30 am

Anything but those volcanoes seems to be the word.

Reply to  sparko
March 9, 2021 12:14 pm

Maybe 91 volcanoes is insufficient for warming of any significance … https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/12/scientists-discover-91-volcanos-antarctica

Loydo
Reply to  John Shewchuk
March 9, 2021 7:26 pm

How long since one of them erupted John?

fred250
Reply to  Loydo
March 9, 2021 9:39 pm

https://www.auroraexpeditions.com.au/blog/active-volcanoes-in-antarctica/

“With the discovery of 91 new volcanoes and many more potentially to be found, Antarctica is a hot bed of volcanic activity – helping to shape the landscape of this fascinating place.”

https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=295861

While the effects of volcanic heat on the Antarctic ice sheets is an active topic of research, this study provides the first geochemical evidence of a contemporary volcanic heat source, emphasizing the need to detect and understand volcanism, including in models of ice-sheet behavior. The greater understanding of volcanism could alter scientists’ perception of the mechanics of ice-sheet loss, including in the areas where the glaciers meet the sea.

Our finding of a substantial heat source beneath a major WAIS glacier highlights the need to understand subglacial volcanism.

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-volcanic-source-major-antarctic-glacier.html

“have discovered an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica.

The volcanic heat sources were found beneath the fastest moving and the fastest melting glacier in Antarctica, the Pine Island Glacier,” Loose said. “It is losing mass the fastest.”

Try NOT to remain IGNORANT, Loy-dodo. !

John Tillman
Reply to  Loydo
March 10, 2021 4:17 pm

There is volcanic activity ongoing under the vaunted Pine Island Glacier:

https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=295861

John Tillman
Reply to  John Shewchuk
March 10, 2021 4:15 pm

Those are in adddition to the 47 previously known about.

MarkW
March 9, 2021 11:34 am

If this “warming” is being caused by shifting winds, that must mean that somewhere else, there is cooling. After all, those “warm” winds used to be warming someplace else.

As usual, the warmunists only want to focus on the areas that are now being warmed by these winds. They couldn’t care less about the place that is now cooling because the winds shifted.

March 9, 2021 1:04 pm

Nonsense. It is getting colder in Antarctica.

WXcycles
March 9, 2021 1:21 pm

It snowed heavily in NZ’s south Island for most of the Summer that ended 10 days ago.

SSTA – TASMAN SEA:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-200.74,-36.60,1905

Call me unconvinced.

WXcycles
Reply to  WXcycles
March 9, 2021 1:37 pm

Here’s the area in question 10 days after Summer has just ended. Could someone please point out the warm bit?
comment image

All I see is –10C down to sea level, and -20C in the upland parts where glaciers compact and slide downhill as a crystal solid.

How does glacial ice below 0 degrees C from alleged excess Tasman Sea warmth, that is absent in SSTA, from the other side of the Southern Hemisphere, manage to chill glaciers in the mountains to –20 C, and ‘melt’ them?

It’s almost like it’s a complete figment of the imagination.

I’m not saying the venerable researchers are a bunch of pathetic liars, but I just don’t see a scrap of truth in their alleged problem of astonishing glacial meltiness, nor in their bizarre contrived mechanism as cause, nor in their evidence-less non-existent asserted conclusion.

It’s almost like it’s not even science.

ATheoK
Reply to  WXcycles
March 9, 2021 4:06 pm

comment image?as=webp

N.B. The “warming” is their description for “positive anomalies”!

Not actual warm temperatures above zero. Instead they use averages over time as a base against which their year’s average temperature is compared.

Estimated positive anomalies may occur well below zero degrees.

Their alleged warming over time is because recent years had more positive anomalies, not that they were warm in any sense of the word.

You are correct WXcycles in your description. Unfortunately, there is not a logical path to the tortuous assumptions in the original paper, “Antarctic Peninsula warm winters influenced by Tasman Sea temperatures“, described above.

Loydo
Reply to  WXcycles
March 9, 2021 7:29 pm

“Here’s the area in question 10 days after Summer has just ended. Could someone please point out the warm bit?”

I guess that rules out volcanos.

fred250
Reply to  Loydo
March 9, 2021 9:41 pm

WRONG AGAIN Loy-dodo

https://www.auroraexpeditions.com.au/blog/active-volcanoes-in-antarctica/

“With the discovery of 91 new volcanoes and many more potentially to be found, Antarctica is a hot bed of volcanic activity – helping to shape the landscape of this fascinating place.”

https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=295861

While the effects of volcanic heat on the Antarctic ice sheets is an active topic of research, this study provides the first geochemical evidence of a contemporary volcanic heat source, emphasizing the need to detect and understand volcanism, including in models of ice-sheet behavior. The greater understanding of volcanism could alter scientists’ perception of the mechanics of ice-sheet loss, including in the areas where the glaciers meet the sea.

Our finding of a substantial heat source beneath a major WAIS glacier highlights the need to understand subglacial volcanism.

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-volcanic-source-major-antarctic-glacier.html

“have discovered an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica.

The volcanic heat sources were found beneath the fastest moving and the fastest melting glacier in Antarctica, the Pine Island Glacier,” Loose said. “It is losing mass the fastest.”

Its SO COLD down there even the volcanic heat can’t make it to the surface !

fred250
Reply to  fred250
March 9, 2021 9:42 pm

don’t know why its spacing the text like that !

nyolci
Reply to  fred250
March 10, 2021 4:49 am

don’t know why its spacing the text like that !

This is not the only thing you don’t know 🙂

ATheoK
Reply to  nyolci
March 10, 2021 8:41 pm

You are the expert there nyolci and you still get it wrong.

Ian Cooper
March 9, 2021 1:33 pm

While they harp on about a supposed influence of the Tasman Sea on the glaciers of the West Antarctic Peninsula, they ignore two of the most significant glaciers in southern temperate latitudes that lie on the eastern boundary of the Tasman. Franz Josef & Fox Glacier on the West Coast of the South Island of New Zealand advanced from the early 1980’s through to the end of the first decade of this century. A New Zealand study (I will have to look it up at home) concluded that NZ endured a sustained cold period where the rainfall brought in off the Tasman by the prevailing westerly winds was so great over that period that the pair of glaciers advanced rapidly back to positions similar to those of the 1950’s. The rain turns to snow and ice at the top of the neve’s which feed the glaciers. It takes only 3 -5 years for that ice to reach the terminal face for these two glaciers, making them among the fastest moving in the world due to their steep descent. El Nino events are the key to the amount of strong, rain bearing winds that see the West Coast measure their annual rainfall not in mm’s but metres! Since 2008 the glaciers have been back in retreat. The pair have a well recorded history of rapid advance & retreat BTW. To me they are like a litmus paper reflecting our climate. The current warm phase with very few periods of strong westerly winds won’t last forever. Not that many of us are really fans of such winds. The long term history of this region suggests that such winds have been a feature here for countless millennia. I think that once again those people are clutching at straws to connect recent Tasman Sea warming to what is happening in the West Antarctic.

WXcycles
Reply to  Ian Cooper
March 9, 2021 1:59 pm

I think that once again those people are clutching at straws to connect recent Tasman Sea warming to what is happening in the West Antarctic.

What alleged Tasman Sea ‘warming’ though? Other than the usual transient SSTA blips, there isn’t any.

In La Ninas the waters around Australia usually warm up, which is what produced the massive continent wide floods in 2010 to 2011 which we were assured we;d never see again, by such outspoken fake-experts.

A bit like the snow we’d never see again in that respect. It resulted in the wettest period in the whole of Australia’s met history instead.

And we are in a weak La Nina now, but the SSTA warmth in the Tasman Sea is not even present when it should be at enhanced levels today. But there’s none there.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-200.74,-36.60,1905

LOL

Not just the tropospheric hotspot that has failed to show up for work.

Last edited 1 month ago by WXcycles
Steve Z
March 9, 2021 1:48 pm

[QUOTE FROM ARTICLE]”The ever-increasing warming of the AP–rather, the whole of Antarctica at large–is a major concern plaguing climatologists all over the world.”[END QUOTE]

The researchers only analyzed data of the Antarctic Peninsula (the only part of Antarctica outside the Antarctic Circle) and generalized to “the whole of Antarctica at large” (which is known to be cooling). That would be equivalent to evaluating climate change of the entire United States based on what is happening in Florida.

The Tasman Sea, between the east coast of Australia and New Zealand, is between about 150 and 170 degrees East longitude, while the Antarctic Peninsula is at about 65 degrees West longitude, meaning that water from the Tasman Sea would have to travel about 125 degrees of longitude (more than a third of the way around the world) east to warm the Antarctic Peninsula. Wouldn’t it be more likely that any warming is from warm water moving south along the coast of Chile, which is much closer?

Editor
Reply to  Steve Z
March 9, 2021 2:07 pm

Definitely, The warm patches of the AP are on the left (west) side. Chilean water can get there, Tasman Sea water would have to go right round Antarctica to get there. But I’m not sure that they are saying that the Tasman water itself gets there, I think they are saying that the Tasman Sea waves a magic wand and its powers are thus exercised on the AP.

Duker
Reply to  Mike Jonas
March 9, 2021 7:44 pm

Plus they did say Tasman Sea and SO or Southern Oscillation. Which runs from Darwin to Tahiti
https://niwa.co.nz/climate/faq/what-is-the-southern-oscillation
Over periods of a month or longer, higher pressure than normal at one site is almost always concurrent with lower pressure at the other, and vice versa. The pattern reverses every few years. It represents a “see-saw”, a mass of air oscillating back and forth across the International Date Line in the tropics and subtropics.”

March 9, 2021 2:02 pm

The Antarctic Peninsula is warmed by the large number of volcanoes and lava lakes under it. This also warms nearby ocean areas and glaciers on the West Antarctica Peninsula, There is also an active rift system across South West Antarctica and up the West Antarctica Peninsula. The ability of the atmosphere to heat West Antarctica is zero.

Editor
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
March 10, 2021 1:47 am

There are indeed a lot of volcanoes there, and I certainly wouldn’t claim that they aren’t the cause of AP warming without doing appropriate calcs. However, another possibility has also occurred to me: the AP warming could be from a change in THC bringing more upwelling close to the AP. We tend to think of the deep water as being cold, and therefore we tend not to associate it with warming, but at an average of around 3 deg C it is up to 4 deg C warmer than the surface waters around the AP. More of that coming up close to the AP could make quite a big difference.

ATheoK
March 9, 2021 3:14 pm

More disconnected from reality confirmation biases and gross assumptions:
The real title of the paper is “Antarctic Peninsula warm winters influenced by Tasman Sea temperatures

“The data exhibited an interannual half standard deviation (0.5σ) of 1.0 °C.

The averaged temperatures anomalies in thirteen years exceeded +0.5σ (‘warm’ AP winters), whereas twelve winters recorded mean temperatures less than −0.5σ (‘cold’ AP winters).

Although weak negative trends of AP air temperature since 1999 were reported by a previous study10, our analysis shows that the AP stations experienced eight warm winters since that time (in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2010, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019).”

Where an earlier study found nearly equal positive and negative “average” anomalies, these researchers lump 8 additional warm anomaly years on the Western Antarctic Peninsula to force a picture of Antarctica warming…

“https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21773-5/figures/1”
N.B. The red area purporting to show warm years represents temperatures at:

“Figure 2a shows the differences in temperature at 700 hPa (T700) and SLP between warm and cold AP winters”

From this they leap to their cyclonic currents…

“Therefore, these atmospheric circulation changes related to anomalous SST warming over the Tasman Sea would contribute to recent anomalous warm AP winters.

To investigate SST anomalies in the Tasman Sea, we focus on the difference in SST between warm and cold AP winters (Fig. 2e, Supplementary Fig. 3a).

A remarkable feature of Fig. 2e is that the SST differences over most of the SO are quite small, with the notable exception of the significant SST differences in the Tasman Sea and to the east of New Zealand.”

Showing warming on the occupied UHI affected portion of the Antarctic Peninsula is far from showing “Tasman Sea and Warm Winter in the Antarctic”…

Last edited 1 month ago by ATheoK
Lars Jonsson
March 9, 2021 3:37 pm

I noted that the article specifically says, quote:

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP), which is the only landmass of Antarctica extending out past the Antarctic Circle, was found to be one of the most rapidly warming regions on the planet during the second half of the 20th century.

The fact is the trend has changed since then and the last two decades the Antarctic peninsula has cooled slightly. Most of the warming during the latter part of the 20th century was in the Austral winter according to this article

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.6378

joc6378-fig-0010-m.png
Martin Cornell
March 9, 2021 4:14 pm

How much warming in the winter? From -33C to -31C? Just guessing, but you get the point.

OK S.
March 9, 2021 4:44 pm

The paper itself doesn’t mention greenhouse gases, plagues, or anything like the press release.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21773-5

The West Antarctic region, and the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) in particular, experienced dramatic temperature changes from the International Geophysical Year 1958 to the late 20th century. Significant long-period warming of the troposphere has been revealed in observations (e.g., from surface stations radiosondes and satellites6,7) and reanalysis data8, in all seasons, with the highest warming rate in winter. Although positive trends in surface air temperature were found in the entire AP, the warming rate has been particularly marked at stations on the west side of the AP2,8. The AP air temperature trends are sensitive to the chosen start and end years of periods and period length3,7,10,11. There has been a statistically significant warming trend over the AP for a long period1. In contrast, for short periods, warming trends over the AP are not seen during austral summer, essentially because of natural internal variability.

Jeff Alberts
March 9, 2021 8:29 pm

I thought this stuff was settled.

fred250
March 9, 2021 10:20 pm

Deception Island.

Must be something keeping the water warm. 😉

Climate believer
March 10, 2021 12:43 am

“The melting of the Earth’s ice cover intensified in the 20th century, with glaciers and sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic regions melting at alarming speeds.”

Gotta’ get your buzz words in!

Medley and Thomas found that snow accumulation increased over the 20th century by 0.04 inches per decade, and that rate more than doubled after 1979.

The British Antarctic Survey has stated:

“Antarctica seems to be both warming around the edges and cooling at the center at the same time. Thus it is not possible to say whether it is warming or cooling overall.”

“There is no evidence for a decline in the overall Antarctic sea ice extent.”

150_AntarcticSnowfall_Thumbnail.png
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