Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I see that a number of health organizations are calling on Zhou Bai-den to declare a “climate health emergency”. From the American Lung Association:
WASHINGTON, D.C. | January 26, 2021
Today, 26 national health and medical organizations delivered a Declaration on Climate Change and Health to President Joe Biden and congressional leadership underscoring climate change as a health emergency and calling for immediate action to protect the public’s health from the current and future impacts of climate change.
Ever notice how these kinds of folks never specify just what a degree or two of warming is supposed to do to our health? It’s just like the declarations of a “climate emergency” in general. Where is the “emergency” inherent in a slight warming?
In any case, I thought I’d look at what the temperatures are where humans set up residence. Here are the annual average monthly temperatures for 444 cities all around the globe.
Figure 1. Histogram, average annual temperatures of 444 cities. The two cities with annual temperatures below -10°C are Dikson, Russia, and Gjoa Haven, Canada. The warmest city is Assab, Eritrea, average temperature 30.5°C (87°F). I note once again that almost nowhere on earth is the annual average temperature above ~30°C.
People are happily living in cities with annual average temperatures from -14°C to 30.5°C (6°F to 87°F) …
Now, most of the warming in the last century has occurred in the extratropics, in the winter, at night. I find it amazing that people can believe that a slight warming of winter nights outside the tropics is going to lead to a “health emergency”. But then, as H. L. Mencken observed, “No one in this world, so far as I know … has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” And sadly, these days that includes the great masses of climate alarmists.
However, that’s only part of the story. In each of these cities, the monthly average temperature varies over the course of the year. Figure 2 shows the size of the annual variation from the coldest to the warmest month.
Figure 2. Histogram, average annual temperature ranges of 444 cities. The city with the largest range is Yakutsk in Siberia, where the coldest month is -38.6°C (-37.5°F) and the warmest month is 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Almost a third of these cities see an annual swing greater than 20°C (36°F) … again, what “health emergencies” will come from a couple degrees C of warming when the annual swing is greater than that in about 94% of all cities?
Finally, here is the total range of monthly temperatures where people live in cities.
Figure 3. Histogram, average monthly temperatures of 5,328 months of data from 444 cities. The most common monthly temperature is in the range of 26°-28°C (78.8°-82.4°C)
Again, given the 80°C (144°F) range of monthly average temperatures shown above where people live and thrive, I can’t think of how a couple of degrees C of warming mostly at night in the winter is going to cause any conceivable “health emergency”.
I suppose none of this should be any surprise. It was all laid out in 1841 in the book “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” by Charles McKay, available online here. But then, nobody ever accused us humanoids of being quick learners en masse … from the Preface:
In reading the history of nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities; their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do.
We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.
We see one nation suddenly seized, from its highest to its lowest members, with a fierce desire of military glory; another as suddenly becoming crazed upon a religious scruple; and neither of them recovering its senses until it has shed rivers of blood and sowed a harvest of groans and tears, to be reaped by its posterity.
At an early age in the annals of Europe its population lost their wits about the sepulchre of Jesus, and crowded in frenzied multitudes to the Holy Land; another age went mad for fear of the devil, and offered up hundreds of thousands of victims to the delusion of witchcraft. At another time, the many became crazed on the subject of the philosopher’s stone, and committed follies till then unheard of in the pursuit.
Welcome to 2021, where we’re still as prone to popular delusions and the madness of crowds as we were in 1841 …
In totally unrelated news, my latest tale of wandering among the homeless is up on my blog here, comments welcome.
My very best and warmest regards to everyone, and please, can we stop with the “climate emergency” nonsense?
w.
PS—Misunderstandings are the bane of the intarwebs. I can defend my own words. I cannot defend your interpretation of my words. Accordingly, when you comment I ask that you quote the exact words that you are discussing, so that we can all be clear just what and who you are talking about.
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Things to consider.
1. People do die from cold weather.
2. People do die from hot weather.
3. People do die from viruses, and other infectious diseases that are more prevalent in cold weather.
4. People do die from viruses and other infectious diseases that are more prevalent in hot weather.
5. The rates of the four components above are not static with time.
Here in Melbourne Australia, during the 1880s the city was known as Smellbourne.
The city was packed with people, but there was no sewer system.
Waterborne diseases were responsible for many deaths. In the 1880s Melbourne, summer deaths dominated winter deaths.
The construction of sewer infrastructure starting in 1890s changed everything. By about 1920 summer deaths were equal with winter deaths.
Now in 2021 winter deaths in Melbourne dominate summer deaths, BUT all death rates are down
In 2019 Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a climate emergency for New York City (an. av. ~54F) subsequently thousands of those that could have fled to Florida (Miami an. av ~75F).
Just a few years ago we fled from New Hampshire to Florida after I took another look at the temperature curve for the last 6,000 years as derived from ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica, along with sea level records at the end of the Milankovitch warm cycles.
“Ever notice how these kinds of folks never specify just what a degree or two of warming is supposed to do to our health?”
As a forester in Mass. I’ve worked outdoors since Nixon was in the White House in temperatures ranging from 105 F down to -25 F. Didn’t hurt me any – as I’m now 71.
Now- off topic again- but heck, I find some good stuff! In the latest NY Times Magazine: “Bill Gates: Here’s a Formula That Explains Where We Need to Invest in Climate Innovation”
https://time.com/5930098/bill-gates-climate-change/
He talks about things like “green cement”. I’d like to see how they make that! And, he says green electric power will only add about $18/month to our bills. Yuh, right!
“green electric power will only add about $18/month to our bills.”
He may be right. Under green power our consumption will plummet. I am hoping I will get enough power to keep the freezer cold. Luckily I live in a warm part of the world, sorry about the rest of you.
Of course our poorest continent Africa ( 53 countries) has seen an enormous increase in pop since 1950 ( 227 mil), 1970 (363 mil) and since 2000 and today the population has increased by a billion people since 1970. So today about 1.34 billion people. Check it out.
In 1970 just 0.363 bn people and life exp was about 47.5 years,yet today an extra one billion people (in just 50 years) and life exp about 64 years.
So where is their so called climate crisis or emergency or apocalypse? Again don’t forget this is the poorest continent on the planet.
Neville
Excellent comment
As you highlighted above, the late Hans Rosling has clearly shown with his health statistics how the world is changing.
The clear link is reliable grid electricity enables reticulated water and waste water systems which dramatically improve health and free up time to enable women to work and study. A female workforce go hand in hand with a better national economy and lower population growth.
According to Sen. John Kennedy of LA, ” I keep trying to see Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer’s point of view but I just can’t seem to get my head that far up my ass. “
I see you changed the wording of your normal “PS”.
I like it.
Reminds me of,
I’m not sure who said that first but we should always be open to allowing someone to clarify what they said.
We may still end up disagreeing, but at least it’s not based on a misunderstanding or “a failure to communicate”.
Here in his study of our future wealth Dr Lomborg uses the IPCC data and finds that we will be 4.3 times better off in 2100. Here’s part of his abstract and link to the study……
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157
“Abstract”Climate change is real and its impacts are mostly negative, but common portrayals of devastation are unfounded. Scenarios set out under the UN Climate Panel (IPCC) show human welfare will likely increase to 450% of today’s welfare over the 21st century. Climate damages will reduce this welfare increase to 434%.
Arguments for devastation typically claim that extreme weather (like droughts, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes) is already worsening because of climate change. This is mostly misleading and inconsistent with the IPCC literature. For instance, the IPCC finds no trend for global hurricane frequency and has low confidence in attribution of changes to human activity, while the US has not seen an increase in landfalling hurricanes since 1900. Global death risk from extreme weather has declined 99% over 100 years and global costs have declined 26% over the last 28 years.
Arguments for devastation typically ignore adaptation, which will reduce vulnerability dramatically. While climate research suggests that fewer but stronger future hurricanes will increase damages, this effect will be countered by richer and more resilient societies. Global cost of hurricanes will likely decline from 0.04% of GDP today to 0.02% in 2100.
Climate-economic research shows that the total cost from untreated climate change is negative but moderate, likely equivalent to a 3.6% reduction in total GDP.
Climate policies also have costs that often vastly outweigh their climate benefits. The Paris Agreement, if fully implemented, will cost $819–$1,890 billion per year in 2030, yet will reduce emissions by just 1% of what is needed to limit average global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Each dollar spent on Paris will likely produce climate benefits worth 11¢.
Long-term impacts of climate policy can cost even more. The IPCC’s two best future scenarios are the “sustainable” SSP1 and the “fossil-fuel driven” SSP5. Current climate-focused attitudes suggest we aim for the “sustainable” world, but the higher economic growth in SSP5 actually leads to much greater welfare for humanity. After adjusting for climate damages, SSP5 will on average leave grandchildren of today’s poor $48,000 better off every year. It will reduce poverty by 26 million each year until 2050, inequality will be lower, and more than 80 million premature deaths will be avoided.
Using carbon taxes, an optimal realistic climate policy can aggressively reduce emissions and reduce the global temperature increase from 4.1°C in 2100 to 3.75°C. This will cost $18 trillion, but deliver climate benefits worth twice that. The popular 2°C target, in contrast, is unrealistic and would leave the world more than $250 trillion worse off.
The most effective climate policy is increasing investment in green R&D to make future decarbonization much cheaper. This can deliver $11 of climate benefits for each dollar spent.
More effective climate policies can help the world do better. The current climate discourse leads to wasteful climate policies, diverting attention and funds from more effective ways to improve the world”.
If that much.
Actual temperature rise is more likely to be a tenth of a degree or two.
BTW here is the largest study ever to attribute deaths to levels of temp around the world. This 2015 Lancet study found most deaths were attributable to cold temps 7.29% and about 0.42% to warmer temps.
That’s about 17.4 times more cold deaths than for warmer temps. But moderate cold deaths are the real surprise and they include handy column graphs for some countries, so we can easily see the difference. See 2nd link below.
Interesting that very wealthy hot countries like Australia seem to handle very hot (or extreme heat) conditions well and probably because of widespread use of ACs. Here’s the study link and below that is the link to the column graphs for deaths from different temps”.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62114-0/fulltext
The definitions for the 4 temperature categories must vary by country. I doubt that the temperature for “extreme cold” for Thailand is the same as for Canada.
My impression has been that in those places where the temperature is warmer, people are, on average, healthier.
My impression is that until Europeans arrived in the Arctic, Inuits did not experience colds, flu, smallpox, or TB. Perhaps it was the custom of rubbing noses instead of exchanging saliva that was their salvation.
Willis, slightly off-topic, but you were the first to convince me that wearing face masks was correlated with protection from the coronavirus. This was at a time when the WHO and Canada’s chief medical officer claimed that masks other than N95 respirators were “useless” and might even give some a false sense of security. Please provide a link to your article, or state the date (I might have saved the WUWT article under a different title). Thanks for all your good work.
During the height of The Great Toilet Paper Scare of 2020, I was recommending McKay’s book to help people understand what was happening. Alas, when people are seized by fear you cannot reason with them. They turn on you as a focus of their anger.
Can thr pols declare a emergency wihtout some evidence it occurred? I never heard of an emergency declaration due to an expected tornado or pretty soon forest fire.If we let them call emergency rules for something expected by a few we will never find normal again.
Nor find freedom again.
“… that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”
The question of our time is what the new folly will be.
“But then, nobody ever accused us humanoids of being
quick learnersrational en masse.”I heard then following somewhere:
“None of us is as stupid as all of us”. [madness of crowds]
Is there a national organization, in the U.S. or elsewhere, with the purpose of fighting this insane climate alarmism? Individual scientists and journalists speak out, but is there a membership organization dedicated to advancing rational thought and lobbying politicians so as to prevent this insanity from destroying society?
It would be interesting to select a random number of smaller towns and cities where there are decent temperature data, and be able to judge the swings in temps, etc. for those random towns and small cities. I wonder what that would show. Great job with your article!
I have experienced literal health miracles doing exertion and extreme heat. I had a strained muscle in my neck they would never go away tell one day I help bring up shingles onto 135° roof all day.
I got something going wrong on my body every summer I called my cousin who does Shingle houses and get on a crew for a day or two in the very hottest days and it’ll sweat you pure and clean and it’ll make every muscle in your body like silly putty
Good post Willis, but common sense and facts don’t make any impression on the “woke” neo-marxists that pretty clearly have taken over just about all aspects (not necessarily a majority of people YET) of formerly western/democratic culture. If there is an impression, it’s one to strike out and silence such ideas.