Tuesday, January 19, 2021
Joseph D’Aleo, CCM
Just hours after an inauguration took place, executive orders are issued to stop the Keystone Pipeline and to rejoin the Paris Accord – which is just an attempt to extort money from countries like the US while allow other volunteer countries like China to set a goal to join to pay in a decade or more or never. The U.S. has the cleanest air in the world thanks to natural gas, while the green countries use coal to keep the lights on and have poorer air quality. The Paris Accord is just another leftist wealth transfer program.
We are told that major changes to our energy policies are necessary to move away from carbon based fossil fuels to wind and solar to save the planet from carbon pollution and resulting catastrophic climate changes. We are told that green energy will save us money because the sun and wind are free and that removing carbon dioxide from the air will save lives. Each of these claims are easily proven wrong with real world examples. The science is seriously flawed and the policies produce the exact opposite, costly even dangerous results. Already many in the oil sector are losing their jobs. Biden suggests they should consider learning how to code. Kerry suggests they build solar panels, hoping you forgot Solyndra and dozens of other renewable bankruptcies when Obama tried that. The media has hyped significant natural events and changes and blamed them on claims of record warming as advertised by the segment of activists in the once honest universities and professional societies, and in the no longer trustworthy climate groups at NOAA and NASA and too many in the public believe it is real.
But the linkage is not to be trusted. What is ignored is the lack of long term global temperature data to make any reasonable assessment. Data before the 1980s was primarily in the US and Europe and parts of Australia and very little data in the oceans which cover 71% of the globe.
The first attempts to assess global trends recognized that data was an issue and the analysis was confined to northern hemisphere land areas (mostly U.S. and parts of Europe). It showed strong warming and then a corresponding cooling trend during the period from the 1880s to 1970s.
The number of stations increased in the 20th century though they increasingly were located in urban areas or nearby airports subject to local urban heat island contamination.
You see in the U.S. high density data set with the longest history of record, the temperatures changed in the same direction with CO2 only 40% of the time.
After 1980s satellites began sensing ocean surface temperatures when clouds permitted and later after 2000 a network of global buoys provided real time accurate ocean temperature. It was the first time we could claim true global coverage but other problems developed and models were incorporated and when you combine varied data with models, there is opportunity for mischief. We discussed the global data issues here and long ago here.
A rigorous peer reviewed analysis here failed to find that the steadily rising atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 13 critically important temperature time series analyzed.
The climate changes in multidecadal and longer cycles related to the sun and oceans and influenced by volcanism. As for claims that extremes of weather are increasing as the earth warms, they can be easily refuted with real world data and natural factors as we did here.
One of the biggest threats to our countries economy will be skyrocketing energy costs and through that further loss of jobs, with the economy already reeling from shutdowns and COVID and radical rioting related small business failures and now executive orders. In this country, the early previews of this is in the states with early green energy commitments and carbon reduction or hidden taxes. California is the best known example but the northeast (red on the table) with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative show the highest electricity prices by far.
Globally our countries average electricity prices have been the lowest with the heavily invested green countries up to 5 times higher. Renewable states are subject to brownouts and blackouts (California leads the states as blackouts are implemented during wildfire threats). Globally blackouts and brownouts are common as the wind and sun are not reliable. The high cost of electricity drives industry to countries like China and India where costs are low because they use coal, reliable and cheap.
You may recall that the economist Gabriel Calzada Associate Professor of Economics at the King Juan Carlos University in Spain in 2010 estimated every green job created cost Spain $774,000 in subsidies. But resulted in a loss of 2.2 real jobs. Only 1 in 10 green jobs was permanent. Industry left and Spain and unemployment rose to 27.5%. In Italy 3.4 real jobs were lost.
The energy costs are not limited to electricity as the elimination of fossil fuels would lead to a forced transition to electric cars further increasing the demand on electricity. Obama had gasoline prices up to $5 and predicted within 2 years everyone would be driving electric cars with his administration predicting $8/gasoline. Instead thank to fracking and then in 2020 COVID forced work at home, gas prices dropped instead to $2 or lower during President Trump’s term, when we finally achieved true energy independence. But that will soon disappear.
Many ‘green’ countries were forced to slow or even halt the move to green and build coal plants to provide energy when the sun doesn’t shine or wind blow.
When the power is out, people are subject to the danger from winter cold. The danger associated with a ‘heat kills’ misdirection is that cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings were published in the Lancet. Many households are said to be in “energy poverty” (25% UK, 15% Germany). The elderly forced to “choose between heating and eating” as they sit in their home in their coats and sweaters.
Canada, United States and the UK Winter Mortality is very real.
It is very clear the people who get hurt the most are those who can least afford it. Households with income of less than $20,000/year spend over 40% of their income on energy.
The Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute concludes “simply put, a ban on fracking in the United States would be catastrophic for our economy”.
“Our analysis shows that if such a ban were imposed in 2021, by 2025 it would eliminate 19 million jobs and reduce U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by $7.1 trillion. Job losses in major energy producing states would be immediate and severe; in Texas alone, more than three million jobs would be lost. Tax revenue at the local, state, and federal levels would decline by nearly a combined $1.9 trillion, as the ban cuts off a critical source of funding for schools, first responders, infrastructure, and other critical public services.
Energy prices would also skyrocket under a fracking ban. Natural gas prices would leap by 324 percent, causing household energy bills to more than quadruple. By 2025, motorists would pay twice as much at the pump ($5/gallon +).”
In the last few years, the average household thanks to lower taxes, record low unemployment, and cheap energy averaged increases of $4500/year/family. Now the cost due to the new policy driven increases for electricity, heating fuels and gasoline – families will see losses as high as $10,000/year by 2024. Working from home would limit this some for the immediate future but it is clear the forced move to green energy comes with a huge price. This is true even before we consider the huge cost of the materials to build turbines and solar farms. It has been even suggested by a Biden appointee we build the wind and solar plants in the country’s beautiful national parks.
I have influential friends and leaders in many countries in five continents, where the greens have run wild. They envied our country and hoped their countries would see our advantage and reconsider and instead adopt our approach. They are shocked our country did not recognize how good we had it. One friend posted on a fellow site: “… We stand at the abyss. A Biden regime will be the end of freedom. Europe and Canada have already fallen far down that “poverty road to Venezuela”. If America falls, there will be nowhere left to run to.”