Claim: The Temperature Spike Just Prior to the Little Ice Age can Teach Us about Modern Global Warming

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to Patric Seifert, a tropospheric researcher at the Leibniz Institute in Germany, a large scale temperature spike occurred just before the onset of the Little Ice Age. Seifert does not think global temperatures are about to crash, but he thinks conditions in Europe are similar enough to the 14th century that historical reconstructions of this medieval heatwave, the Dantean Anomaly, can help us understand what we will face as the world continues to warm.

Extreme 14th Century Droughts May Provide Insight Into Our Climate Change Crisis 

9 JANUARY 2021 

Scientists are studying a major, once-in-a-century drought from Medieval Europe to better understand how extreme weather events indicate rapid climate changes.

In the years leading up to the Little Ice Age, between 1302 and 1307, many regions on the European continent were facing exceptional heat and drought, according to historical records and data collected from tree rings and sediment cores.

These extreme natural events, while not driven by human emissions, hold similar characteristics to recent weather anomalies, and they could help us better predict the course of modern-day climate change.

“Even if it was a phase of cooling in the Middle Ages and we are now living in a phase of [hu]man-made warming, there could be parallels,” says Patric Seifert, a tropospheric researcher at the Leibniz Institute in Germany.

“The transitional period between two climate phases could be characterized by smaller temperature differences between the latitudes and cause longer-lasting large-scale weather patterns, which could explain an increase in extreme events.

Even the Middle East reported severe droughts during this time.

“Water levels in the Nile, for example, were exceptionally low,” says Thomas Labbé, also from the Leipzig Institute.

“We therefore think that the 1304-06 drought was not only a regional phenomenon, but probably had transcontinental dimensions.”

The study was published in Climate of the Past. 

Read more:

The abstract of the study;

A prequel to the Dantean Anomaly: the precipitation seesaw and droughts of 1302 to 1307 in Europe

Martin Bauch1, Thomas Labbé1,3, Annabell Engel1, and Patric Seifert2

  • 1Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe (GWZO), Leipzig, Germany
  • 2Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), Leipzig, Germany
  • 3Maison des Sciences de l’Homme de Dijon, USR 3516 CNRS, Dijon, France

Correspondence: Martin Bauch ( – Received: 03 Mar 2020  – Discussion started: 20 May 2020 – Revised: 02 Oct 2020 – Accepted: 05 Oct 2020 – Published: 25 Nov 2020

The cold/wet anomaly of the 1310s (“Dantean Anomaly”) has attracted a lot of attention from scholars, as it is commonly interpreted as a signal of the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). The huge variability that can be observed during this decade, like the high interannual variability observed in the 1340s, has been highlighted as a side effect of this rapid climatic transition. In this paper, we demonstrate that a multi-seasonal drought of almost 2 years occurred in the Mediterranean between 1302 and 1304, followed by a series of hot, dry summers north of the Alps from 1304 to 1306. We suggest that this outstanding dry anomaly, unique in the 13th and 14th centuries, together with cold anomalies of the 1310s and the 1340s, is part of the climatic shift from the MCA to the LIA. Our reconstruction of the predominant weather patterns of the first decade of the 14th century – based on both documentary and proxy data – identifies multiple European precipitation seesaw events between 1302 and 1307, with similarities to the seesaw conditions which prevailed over continental Europe in 2018. It can be debated to what extent the 1302–1307 period can be compared to what is currently discussed regarding the influence of the phenomenon of Arctic amplification on the increasing frequency of persistent stable weather patterns that have occurred since the late 1980s. Additionally, this paper deals with socioeconomic and cultural responses to drought risks in the Middle Ages as outlined in contemporary sources and provides evidence that there is a significant correlation between pronounced dry seasons and fires that devastated cities.

Read more:

I must say I’m surprised by this claim that a geographically large scale hot dry anomaly occurred just prior to the Little Ice Age.

Here I was thinking the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age never happened, or were purely small scale regional events. According to Michael Mann’s hockey stick, global temperatures over the last thousand years were flat as a pancake until the onset of the modern warm period, hence the hockey stick shape (do I need the /sarc tag?).

Original “hockey stick” temperature graph in Nature, 1998. The Y axis shows the Northern hemisphere mean temperature, in degrees Celsius; the zero line corresponds to the 1902 – 1980 mean. Credit: “Global-scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing over the Past Six Centuries,” by Michael E. Mann et al. in Nature, Vol. 392, April 23, 1998

Of course, if the modern warm period is being driven by quasi-periodic natural forcings rather than Anthropogenic CO2, the ominous resemblance between current conditions and the immediate prelude to the little ice age could be more than just a coincidence. But this does not appear to be a possibility the researchers at the Leibniz Institute have considered.

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January 9, 2021 6:23 pm

Unprecedented (not).

Reply to  Scissor
January 10, 2021 1:57 am

60+ year cycle hitting its peak
Earth is whipping around quicker than it has in a half-century

Chris Wright
Reply to  Vuk
January 10, 2021 3:11 am

There was a report about this in the Daily Telegraph several days ago. I wondered if changing sea levels could have an effect on Earth’s spin rate.
Apparently it does, according to this Harvard study:
It starts with:
“Research has shown that rising sea level across the globe has triggered a slowdown in Earth’s rotation….”
Of course, rising sea levels should cause a slow-down due to the conservation of momentum. For the same reason, an increasing spin rate could indicate a fall in the sea level. Interesting….

Reply to  Chris Wright
January 10, 2021 3:16 am

Spot on Chris.
Now I wonder where the water is going to?

Reply to  Philip Mulholland
January 10, 2021 3:44 am

Where the water is going to? My understanding is that the melting ice is near the pole/s and therefore near Earth’s axis, but after melting it spreads around the globe, ie, moving further from Earth’s axis, thus slowing Earth’s rotation.

Reply to  Mike Jonas
January 10, 2021 3:55 am

See Vuk’s link above.

The year 2020 was already faster than usual, astronomically speaking (cue sighs of relief). According to Time and Date, Earth broke the previous record for shortest astronomical day, set in 2005, 28 times

So what is happening now that the Earth’s rotation rate is showing signs of increasing and we might need to remove a leap second?

Ewin Barnett
Reply to  Chris Wright
January 10, 2021 4:30 am

The mass of the polar ice when increasing/decreasing would change the angular momentum of the spin, and thus the rate.

Reply to  Ewin Barnett
January 10, 2021 1:28 pm

No. The ice at the north pole is floating on the Arctic Ocean, hence has already displaced water equal to its mass. Melting would not change distribution of mass.

exception: melting of land ice, eg on Greenland, could have some tiny effect.

David A
Reply to  Chris Wright
January 10, 2021 4:51 am

Well I guess it was really slow for much of the past 12k years, as sea levels were considerably higher then now.

Reply to  Vuk
January 10, 2021 3:12 am

“Some scientists at the International Telecommunication Union have suggested letting the gap between astronomical and atomic time widen until a “leap hour” is needed,”

Thar’s some seriously long grass to kick the ball into.

Reply to  Scissor
January 10, 2021 1:10 pm

Presumably, since oil is usually found below the earth’s surface, bringing it to the surface, would slow the earth’s rate of spin. Then when it’s burnt all that carbon goes into CO2 in the atmosphere, placing it even further from the Earth’s axis of rotation.

Reply to  MarkW
January 10, 2021 2:23 pm

OK I’ll bite.

In order to get oil out of the ground it must be forced up to the surface in some way.
Now this can be done by high water pressures, either natural water drive from below or artificial water drive from above.(assuming no gas cap above the oil in the trap which further complicates matters).

Now oil floats on water so we are replacing the oil at depth with an equal volume of fluid (water) with a greater density, so more mass is now in the former oil trap. So in short it depends, where the water that replaces the oil is coming from, either above the reservoir or below.

But now it gets tricky, so far we have assumed that the pore space in the reservoir rock does not change. But usually it does so the ground surface will sink and the expelled high pressure oil will be replaced by dense rock matrix as the reservoir porosity collapses and the void space decreases.

As for the effect of burning the oil and turning it into CO2 gas and water vapour it depends if the oil is from the Tropics and burned in Europe or from Alaska and burned in the US. In both cases the change in location of the oil across the surface of the rotating Earth is bound to have an effect that clearly depends on its latitude of origin and direction of transport

It’s complicated, and so I guess we are all doomed as the rotating Earth stops turning /sarc

Reply to  Philip Mulholland
January 11, 2021 12:13 am

The same argument could be applied to us humans – 7B now instead of 1B in 1900. We have to have come from somewhere and since we are mostly water… AND we have mass migration all over the planet 😱. /sarc off

Geoff Sherrington
January 9, 2021 6:23 pm

It is all such a mess, isn’t it?
They do not know if or how much CO2 changes climate, nor if a changing climate changes CO2.
They do not know what causes the tree ring response except that it is likely a mix of several causes, like rainfall and temperature and fertilization and altitude etc., but they don’t bother to separate them because they cannot.
They don’t know the absolute scale of temperature change, because they calibrate their tree ring and sediment layer responses against temperatures that are often adjusted and in any case, subject to an uncertainty that causes huge errors (usually left off the decription).
Here, they start to assume that what happened in the early 1300s is likely to repeat now, based on pattern matching that has no proof of being useful for prediction and probably is not.

See what happens when one tries to replace hard science with post-normal speculation? It fails. Germans authors are the best at this type of illegitimacy.

Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
January 9, 2021 6:40 pm

THough thte Germans may indeed be better at it,
I’m sure it sounds better in French…

john harmsworth
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
January 11, 2021 8:13 am

They aren’t trying to resolve any of these inconsistencies. They don’t want to because they know that the answers are embarrassing to the narrative that they are paid to advance. There is no funding for reality, only the correct fiction. If this wasn’t the case they would have disavowed the garbage work of Mann long ago.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
January 11, 2021 10:04 am

They do not know if or how much CO2 changes climate

Actually, they know it doesn’t, but are willfully blind to the ice core reconstructions that show CO2 FOLLOWING temperature, up and down, with a time lag of hundreds of years, with reverse correlation for hundreds of years every time the (excuse me) REAL drivers change direction.

They do not know if a changing climate changes CO2.

Actually, they know it does, but are once again willfully blind; see above.

The conclusion we can draw is that the Climate Fascist Scientists don’t “listen to the science” when they don’t like the message.

Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
January 11, 2021 12:10 pm

“…But this does not appear to be a possibility the researchers at the Leibniz Institute have considered”
I am shure they have considered the possibility, but they also kept in mind that they still need research funding in the future!
Who can blame them!
The problem is “cargo cult science” (R.Feynman) – “This is how the results should look like, and now you have to find evidence.” Thus politically wanted by Greens!

Alexy Scherbakoff
January 9, 2021 6:24 pm

So natural variation has stopped now and we only have human-induced climate change currently.

John Tillman
January 9, 2021 6:28 pm

The terrible 14th century was transitional between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age Cool Period, but it wasn’t a steady decline from balminess to frigidity.

Earth experienced horrible climate in the first half of the century, leading up to the Black Death, followed by a reversal in the second half. Then the killing cold set in during the 15th century.

The Hundred Years’ War was briefly suspended for plague.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Tillman
January 9, 2021 10:19 pm

The Hundred Years’ War was briefly suspended for plague.

I can just see the headlines now … “According to sources …100 Years War temporarily cancelled and troops disbanded to shelter at home. Plague suspected.”
Full story at eleven … In local news, this evening’s Morris dancing in the town square will also be cancelled. All bodies found in the streets should be left outside the chapel.

Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 10, 2021 2:13 am

Act One: Scene One.
At a famous royal palace on the banks of the River Thames in 1337.
Enter Edward the King formerly known as Edward of Windsor with other Nobles and Attendants quickly followed by his young son, also called Edward.
Prithee my good son why the haste? What news from Woodstock?
Sire your good lady wife, my mother Philippa has told me that you have just declared the Hundred Years’ War on our cousin Phillippe de Valois.
(All spoken in ancien français of course).

Reply to  John Tillman
January 10, 2021 12:54 pm

The climate cycles are crude – not precise clock like cycles but nonetheless the cycles are noticeable and have been going on for roughly the last 10,000 years. If a Little Ice Age returns, the future generations that would experience it will be better prepared than the last time.

john harmsworth
Reply to  T. C. Clark
January 11, 2021 8:15 am

With fossil fuels banned under religious edict?

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  T. C. Clark
January 11, 2021 10:11 am

If a Little Ice Age returns, the future generations that would experience it will be better prepared than the last time.

Only if we can get the Climate Fascists out of office before they legislate fossil fuels out of existence (for everyone but themselves, of course). Otherwise, since current generations have built a modern society completely dependent on fossil fuels, the “future generations” will be far worse prepared, since they will never have experienced, nor will they be prepared for, the hardship of life before fossil fuels.

January 9, 2021 6:55 pm

The main thing wrong with what is essentially speculation, is that they’ve got their dates wrong by close to 200 years. If their argument had been based on a phenomenon observed in the late 1500s, this might have been a smidgen more credible.
To suggest that the onset of the Little Ice Age is somehow linked to droughts and warmer weather occurring in the first decades of the 1300s is so nonsensical it only serves to confirm the complete hash that passes for “peer review”.

David A
Reply to  tetris
January 9, 2021 8:00 pm

“To suggest that the onset of the Little Ice Age is somehow linked to droughts and warmer weather occurring in the first decades of the 1300s is so nonsensical …”

Yes, yet is that not the diabolical purpose of this study; to be able to blame the very possible cooling period on the human caused warming.
If it’s a drought, your SUV done it, if it is a blizzard, your SUV done it.

john harmsworth
Reply to  David A
January 11, 2021 8:21 am

Record cold in china right now on top of record warming and I’m responsible? Such responsibility! If they get a heat wave next summer should I stop driving for a couple of weeks? It’s getting hard to keep up with the speed at which nonsense multiplies.

January 9, 2021 6:57 pm

“Scientists are studying a major, once-in-a-century drought from Medieval Europe to better understand how extreme weather events indicate rapid climate changes.”

Might as well be caused by magic.

Last edited 12 days ago by Philip Mulholland
Wayne Townsend
January 9, 2021 8:02 pm

Their theory is that a lower temperature gradient (less temperature differential between the tropics and the poles) increases extreme weather. This seems severely counter-intuitive. Wind speed and displacement of masses of cold/warm air depend on the differential of the temperature between two places. Hurricanes and Tornadoes and phenomena like the polar vortex (displacement of very cold air by very warm air moving north) would naturally lessen in a world where the differential is less.

I would think it would be like a ball rolling down an incline. The steeper the slope the more force can be brought to bear on the atmosphere. Admittedly I am only an educated non-professional. What am I missing?

Bill T
Reply to  Wayne Townsend
January 10, 2021 4:12 am

Completely agree. The medieval warm period is when NA was visited by the Europeans – calmer seas. It is he difference in temperature that decides the energy of a storm.
I cannot understand why all the scientists do not go to excellent climate records like Marco Polo’s. Great read for what was there before he visited a place and what was there when he visited. .

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Wayne Townsend
January 11, 2021 10:20 am

As Richard Lindzen has pointed out, exactly the reverse is true, as any basic book on meteorology will tell you. In a warmer climate, extra-tropical storminess declines, because the temperature differential between the poles and the tropics shrinks.

One of the biggest whoppers they’re selling is that warmer climate means worse weather. 180 degrees wrong. But then logic and reason are not strong points of the climate fascists.

The same tripe is repeated over and over about how “warmer sea surface temperatures” are going to “fuel” hurricane strength. Not if the upper atmosphere is warmer too! Once again, it is the differential, NOT just ONE factor, that drives the weather. I recall one of the hurricanes that hit the US a year or three back (don’t recall which) was supposed to get “strengthened” as it approached the shore due to encountering warmer sea surface temperatures near the coast. Instead, it weakened and fizzled out as it came ashore – but never did that fact get any air time!

Burl Henry
January 9, 2021 8:23 pm

A period of > 3 years between volcanic eruptions will cause temperatures to rise, because of decreased levels of dimming SO2 aerosols in the atmosphere.

During the MWP, there were 10 year intervals between VEI4 or greater,volcanic eruptions:(1280, 1290, 1300, 1310) and (1370, 1380, 1390, 1400). With the atmosphere completely free of SO2 aerosols during those intervals,, temperatures would rise, both in Medieval Europe and around the rest of the world.

This should be a warning to us, to not abandon the burning of fossil fuels and their attendant SO2 emissions. If those emissions are driven to near zero, and periods of volcanic droughts occur, temperatures will soar to those of periods within the MWP.

Jackie Pratt
January 9, 2021 8:31 pm

hahaha…… “a multi-seasonal drought of almost 2 years

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Jackie Pratt
January 10, 2021 5:23 pm

Yes, I thought that was a stretch, too. A good drought takes a couple of years to develop, and the drought they are talking about is only a few years, so nothing to write home about, at least from a “Dust Bowl” perspective.

I would be skeptical that a shortterm drought set off the Little Ice Age.

California used to have droughts that lasted decades. Now *that* is a drought!

M__ S__
January 9, 2021 8:43 pm

See. No matter what happens—colder, hotter, too much the same—we did it!

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  M__ S__
January 11, 2021 10:23 am

What’s that old saying…”A [theory/hypothesis] that explains everything, explains nothing.”

Robert of Texas
January 9, 2021 8:55 pm

“the immediate prelude to the little ice age could be more than just a coincidence. But this does not appear to be a possibility the researchers at the Leibniz Institute have considered.”

Oh, they have considered it…they are just too afraid to put anything in writing that could get them burned at the stake by the True Believers.

Mumbles McGuirck
Reply to  Robert of Texas
January 10, 2021 6:08 am

Auntie Whiteadder, “Edmund, the cold is just God’s way of telling us to burn more Catholics.”
From the Blackadder TV series

Rory Forbes
January 9, 2021 10:07 pm

The author is clearly an idiot … or just unable to pull his head out of his ass long enough to focus on basic concepts …

we demonstrate that a multi-seasonal drought of almost 2 years occurred in the Mediterranean between 1302 and 1304, followed by a series of hot, dry summers north of the Alps from 1304 to 1306.

… or maybe it’s just a problem with German or the translation. But how in gawd’s name can two summers be a series? If this is what passes for science in alarmist academia, little wonder they get so many other things wrong.

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 10, 2021 1:53 am

Perhaps you got it back to front. The author leaves various hints saying it, whatever it was, had nothing to do with mankind, sorry, humankind, but he cannot say so more clearly else he could not get the paper past the censors.

‘Even if it was a phase of cooling in the Middle Ages and we are now living in a phase of [hu]man-made warming, there could be parallels,” says, reading between the lines, ‘it had nothing to do with us then, it has nothing to do with us now’. The sop to ‘warming’ is the cover to get it published.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
January 10, 2021 10:05 am

Thank you for clarifying the mudification. My old brain sometimes soggifies trying to cut through the alarmistrations.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 10, 2021 5:26 pm

Well put. 🙂

Reply to  Rory Forbes
January 10, 2021 5:52 am

@Roy Forbes
“But how in gawd’s name can two summers be a series?”

Perhaps because a time series is defined as a collection of data points, usually equally spaced, indexed by time? So, summers are indeed temporal events roughly spaced a year apart.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Johanus
January 10, 2021 10:06 am

But of course … it’s all so easy. I just needed to stand on my head.

Peta of Newark
January 9, 2021 10:35 pm

From the ‘brewminate’ link:
“”I am in the third circle, filled with cold, / unending, heavy, and accursed rain; / its measure and its kind are never changed. / Gross hailstones, water gray with filth, and snow / come streaking down across the shadowed air; / the earth, as it receives that shower, stink””

Gray with filth – dust?
Hailstones – come out of very active clouds
Stink – sulphur?

There was a volcano going off somewhere and in all probability setting fire to stuff around it.

“”fires that devastated cities
You’re The Scientist, I have to go with whatever you say, but, the Enquiring Mind would like to know:
What part did drought play in The Great Fire of London?

I was always taught that Man’s addiction to Cooked Starch caused that little flare-up – combined with blatant disregard for Social Distancing

Oh, how things have changed – or have they ##

Has got to be The Worst Attempt at a Chat-Up there ever was
Is it possible that behaviour like that explains the disappearance of babies
Certainly not wealth and we can only speculate about the intelligence of contemporary Plod

(##) Did The Dark Ages ever go away?
Have we made any progress since Roman Times

Reply to  Peta of Newark
January 10, 2021 1:48 am

“we can only speculate about the intelligence of contemporary Plod”

Peta; From your BBC link-
Human rights barrister Adam Wagner said: “There is no law against travelling to exercise. The guidance is not legally binding and the police have no power to enforce it unless it is reflected in the lockdown regulations which in this case it is not.”

Derbyshire Police said: “It is up to each individual officer on a case-by-case basis to decide what is reasonable as the legislation does not proscribe a distance.”
NO it isn’t… that’s the job of the legislators !

The BBC contacted the Cabinet Office, Home Office, College of Policing and National Police Chiefs’ Council to ask for clarification over what they define as “local area” in relation to exercise. None could clarify this.

However, the College of Policing said: “In overall terms police officers across England and Wales will be using their discretion and professional judgement about whether or not someone has a reasonable excuse for travelling for exercise and being outside the place where they are living.”
NO they can’t….The police are there to uphold / enforce the law…not to make it up as they go along.

[ If police suspect a law has been broken it is their duty to apprehend the ‘alleged perpetrator’ & put them before a magistrate who decides if a law has been broken.
British law puts discretion firmly in the hands of the courts. ]

See also – [F1Exceptions: leaving home. paragraph 2 C (iii)
UK Statutory Instruments 2020 No. 1374 SCHEDULE 3A PART 1

For England & wales only
Print & carry a copy of schedule,
if you get the heavy treatment use it;
DON’T sign anything
NEVER accept a caution written or verbal ( By accepting a caution you are accepting responsibility for the offence you have been accused of, the effect of which is the same as pleading guilty in Court.)

Steve Case
January 9, 2021 11:25 pm

…[hu]man-made warming,

Well that was enough to make any normal person want to puke.

January 10, 2021 12:43 am

[1] Climate changes are driven largely by variations in the distribution of solar insolation associated with changes in the Earths orbital parameters. Here we define the rate of solar insolation change (RSIC) as a parameter to evaluate and quantify solar heating changes through time. We propose that RSIC may control the timing of transitions between warm and cold periods through its control on the rate of climate changes. Specifically, the glacial/interglacial transitions took place when the 65N July insolation experienced the most rapid changes; interglacials start with a maximum positive RSIC and end with a maximum negative RISC. The RSIC curve thus provides a new astronomically tuned method for dating interglacials. The 65N July RISC curves average a 4.7 ky lead compared to ice sheet changes as indicated by Bassinot et al. [1994] for the last 0.9 Ma, possibly implying a more rapid response of monsoonal climate to the insolation heating.
Do high solar cycles delay cooling in the Northern Hemisphere?comment image
The decreasing tilt of the Earth’s axis in relation to the ecliptic plane, the shorter distance of the northern hemisphere from the Sun in winter and the decreasing solar activity will create conditions for an increase in the ice cover on the continents of the northern hemisphere.

January 10, 2021 1:48 am

Well to state the obvious….all ice ages start when the planet reaches its max temp and then goes down. All warming starts when temps are at their lowest and then goes up….logic really…lol

Bruce Cobb
January 10, 2021 2:42 am

They like that word, “Anamoly”, don’t they? So apparently, the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) is now the “Medieval Climate Anomaly” (MCA). But, the Little Ice Age is still the same name. Because that wasn’t an anomaly to their way of thinking. Only warm periods are “Anomalies”. Climate Liars sure have a strange way of thinking.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
January 10, 2021 9:16 am

They’ll be word-smithed to:

Little Ice Nirvana
Medieval Heat Death

Richard Page
January 10, 2021 3:45 am

All climate activists are operating under the delusion that temperatures can only do one of two things – stay roughly the same or increase to a greater or lesser extent. Thanks to the climate propaganda they are completely blind to the possibility that they might actually decrease. The game theory exercise from several years back was a classic example – no scenario had temperatures decreasing so the conclusions were dangerously flawed: they considered that, even if the climate change theory was wrong, there would be no harmful effects on society from introducing their green agenda. Wilful blind stupidity.

Reply to  Richard Page
January 10, 2021 4:40 am

Like all investments, values may rise or fall !!

January 10, 2021 4:49 am

There’s a lot of research which implies that the MWP and LIA were global events, although the beginning and end of such periods did not happen simultaneously across the world, which is quite understandable.

The droughts and exceptionally hot and dry conditions of the Dantean Anomaly, mentioned in the article, occurred at the beginning of the 14th century in Europe, from around 1302-1307.
A few decades later, in Cambodia, there appears to have been a similar anomaly which is now understood to be the cause of the collapse of that amazing Khmer civilization, around Angkor Wat.

The infrastructure couldn’t cope with the severe droughts that continued over a few years without the usual monsoons, followed by a few years of massive flooding. The population began to leave their cities, and the Thais finalized the collapse by invading the civilization. The entire civilization, with its many, amazing temples, became lost in the jungle until the French colonialist rediscovered it in the 19th century.


“In the mid to late 1300s, Angkor began suffering from a persistent drought. This was followed by several years of unusually strong monsoon rains, producing extensive flooding with which the city’s infrastructure seemed to have been unable to cope.”

Reply to  Vincent
January 10, 2021 5:46 am

It appears that long-term conditions of La Niña or El Niño will foster long-term drought in various regions of the Earth. The question is, how long will the current La Niña be?

Reply to  ren
January 10, 2021 7:02 am

However, the ancient Khmer civilization began at the beginning of the 9th century. It took over 500 years for that mega drought to occur, followed by mega floods.

Australia is a land of droughts and floods. We are now into a La Nina phase, and floods are expected this year, following a few years of drought. However, proxy records from Antarctic ice cores suggest that worse droughts have occurred during the past 1,000 years, than any since the occupation of Australia by the British.

The worst drought, by far, was a 39 year drought that occurred in the 12th century, during the MWP. Out of 8 megadroughts identified from the ice cores, from Law Dome, during the past 1,000 years, 6 of them occurred prior to the industrial revolution.

Reply to  Vincent
January 10, 2021 8:06 pm

Isn’t the 13-hundreds about the time that the Anasazi people (ancestors of the Pueblo people) ceased to inhabit all of those cliff villages like one can see at Mesa Verde?

January 10, 2021 5:24 am

The obsession with trying to control something that Hoomans can’t control (the planet’s climate cycles) is indicative of obsessive-compulsive personality disorder. Those poor souls who feel disenfranchised because the planet can get along quite well without them (need I mention the dinosaurs?) really do need some professional help with their problem.

Trying to control a natural phenomenon like a tornado or a volcano or the weather in general is — well, just beyond my comprehension. They are indoors far too much.

Some fresh air and exercise in the bitter cold of northern winter weather, with snow about 2.5 feet deep (30 or so inches) would do them all a world of good, especially if they had to do it in gym clothes instead of insulated clothing. And NO snow boots, period. No hot drinks afterwards, either.

Since we’re having a rather mild winter in my kingdom, it means that the birds I normally photograph have no interest in my beneficence (plenty of bird food) and the pregnant squirrel has shown up again. I am looking forward to a rainy, sloppy spring (plenty of snow but not cold), lots of blooming wildflowers and some real fresh air.

Reply to  Sara
January 10, 2021 5:29 am

Here is a solution to your squirrel problem.
Building the Perfect Squirrel Proof Bird Feeder

Reply to  Sara
January 10, 2021 8:46 am

Squirrel is not a problem. She can whatever the birds don’t want. She’s fat, and that means she’s preggers! The birds, however, are still busy stuffing themselves on stuff that didn’t get knocked down by winter snow that didn’t come (this time), so unless they get desperate, it’s Mrs. Squirrel instead. Better than nobody at all showing up.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Sara
January 11, 2021 5:57 am

Your experience this winter parallels mine. The main difference is that we are being overrun by mourning doves that should have migrated further south by now because their feed would have been snow covered. The finches and other smaller birds just get shoved out of the way!

I keep the squirrels away by putting out corn-on-the-cob near the back fence row. They feed on that more than the bird seed.

January 10, 2021 6:37 am

Lattitude temperature differentials (cited in the article) have been decreasing… accounting for the lack of increase in severe weather events.

January 10, 2021 7:28 am

This weekend global warming is a big hit in Spain

Reply to  Vuk
January 10, 2021 11:13 am

The SSW starts operating.comment image

Reply to  Vuk
January 11, 2021 4:21 pm

Certainly is in Aragon

Last edited 10 days ago by Philip Mulholland
January 10, 2021 2:53 pm

This graph shows that there are a number of examples of temps reaching a high peak just prior to a substantial drop in temperatures. The cool down occurs within a matter of several years on some of the major temp drops shown on this graph. Ever since first seeing this graph in 2012 I have wondered if we are going to experience a rapid drop similar to what this graph shows on those deepest temp drops. …comment image

Last edited 11 days ago by goldminor
January 10, 2021 5:34 pm

Volcanoes May Have Sparked Little Ice Age
“Their analysis found that many plants at both high and low altitudes died between A.D. 1275 and A.D. 1300 — evidence that Baffin Island froze over suddenly. Many plants also appeared to have died at around A.D. 1450, an indication of a second major cooling.”

Roughly global cooling is drier conditions.
Drier gives both hotter and colder temperature, extremes.
Drier gives bigger droughts.
Our Ice Age is Earth which is drier and lots of deserts. Deserts can be hot and can be cold.

And Little Ice Age is a drier time period- everywhere is more likely to have drought and longer droughts.
It seems unlikely that the human-caused Dust Bowl was the only Dust Bowl ever made by humans. Or humans could make droughts even worst. And don’t need a Californian Governor to make wild fires, worst.

It seems to me what caused the Little Ice Age is still mostly unknown. Maybe part of it involved the very huge volcanic eruption {and series of many huge volcanic eruptions} and if and when we ever have such a huge eruption, it “might” alter global temperature for a long period of time- but how it could seems still mostly unknown.

Ulric Lyons
January 10, 2021 6:59 pm

The heat events around 1304-1306 would be to do with the grand inferior conjunction of all four gas giants, with stronger solar wind states driving positive NAO/AO conditions.

comment image

There was a very cold winter in 1305-1306 so it wasn’t warm in every season all the way through those years.

January 11, 2021 11:57 am

“Of course, if the modern warm period is being driven by quasi-periodic natural forcings rather than Anthropogenic CO2, the ominous resemblance between current conditions and the immediate prelude to the little ice age could be more than just a coincidence. But this does not appear to be a possibility the researchers at the Leibniz Institute have considered”
I am shure they have considered the possibility, but they also kept in mind that they still need research funding in the future!
Who can blame them!
The problem is “cargo cult science” (Feynman) “This is how the results should look like, and now you have to find evidence.” It’s politically wanted by Greens !

January 14, 2021 10:07 pm

So the Medieval Warm Period is now the Medieval Climate Anomaly. How very convenient.
And all this could “explain the increase in extreme events” – except for one problem. There has not been any such increase (as has been clearly spelled out in numerous articles) so this explains nothing.

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