2020 Hurricane Season Curtailed Over 40 Million bbl of GOM Oil Production

Guest “I hate hurricanes” by David Middleton

2008 was just about the worst year in recorded history. We had the financial collapse, the start of the “Great Recession,” the coronation of Barrack Hussein Obama and worst of all… Hurricanes Gustav & Ike.

Gustav and Ike, particularly Ike, dropped Gulf of Mexico (GOM) oil production nearly down to the Dean Wormer Line (zero-point-zero). While 2020 hasn’t been bad as 2008 or 2005, it’s been bad.

Figure 1. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly

NOVEMBER 18, 2020
The Gulf of Mexico saw its largest decrease in crude oil production since 2008 in August

In August 2020, the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) saw its largest monthly decrease in production of crude oil since September 2008, dropping by 453,000 barrels per day (b/d), or 27%. Production of crude oil in the GOM totaled 1.2 million b/d in August 2020, which is its lowest production rate in nearly seven years. The regional drop in production resulted from the path of both Hurricanes Laura and Marco in late August.

Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Marco, which came through the GOM consecutively, caused shut-ins (in other words, not operating) starting on August 22, 2020, and led operators to reduce output for 15 days. Hurricane Marco (the weaker of the two storms) came through first, making landfall on August 24, which affected the magnitude and timing of shut-ins from Hurricane Laura.

Three days later, Hurricane Laura (the 10th-strongest U.S. hurricane on record, as determined by the speed of its winds) made landfall on August 27. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) estimates that 14.4 million barrels of crude oil production was curtailed over the course of 15 days because of the storms. BSEE estimates that about 84% of GOM crude oil production was shut in at the peak of the disruption as a result of crew evacuations.

In 2020, so far, five hurricanes and one tropical depression have caused disruptions to crude oil production in the GOM. Hurricane Zeta was the most recent storm to hit the GOM, and it caused production curtailments through November 4, 2020. To date, 30 named storms have formed in the Atlantic in 2020, surpassing the 28 storms of 2005 and making the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season the most active on record.

In the November 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the production of crude oil in the GOM averaged 1.73 million barrels per day (b/d) in September and fell to 1.29 million b/d in October because of Hurricanes Delta and Zeta. EIA expects crude oil production in the GOM to recover to nearly 1.92 million b/d by December 2020 and to average 1.71 million b/d in 2020.

Principal contributors: Emily Geary, Kirby Lawrence

US EIA

When it comes to oil & gas production, hurricanes cause extensive damage even when they cause little, if any physical damage, and the damage starts before they arrive. Preparations to shut in production and evacuate manned production facilities generally have to commence 2-7 days before the effects of the storm reach the platform. Approximately 42 million barrels (bbl) of crude oil production was curtailed (delayed) by six named storms in 2020. This equates to about 22 days of lost production at 1.9 million bbl/d.

Figure 2. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE)

Of course much worse things can happen to GOM oil production. Super Storm Obama curtailed about 500,000 bbl/d from 2011-2013.

Figure 3. Superstorm Obama damage.

Unless the recounts and legal challenges alter the apparent outcome of the 2020 presidential election, Mega-Apocalypse-Ginormous-Super Storm Obiden could cause even more damage.

Figure 4. A Biden ban on “new oil and gas permitting on public lands and waters” would cut GOM oil production in half by 2028 and by nearly 80% by 2040. (NOIA)

29 thoughts on “2020 Hurricane Season Curtailed Over 40 Million bbl of GOM Oil Production

  1. Obiden. LOL.

    You definitely got that right David. Obama will be the Shadow President behind Dementia Joe moving his lips via the teleprompter. Hussein will be getting the 3rd term he couldn’t under the 22nd Amendment.
    And when Dementia Joe’s senility can no longer be ignored by the Leftist media, Hussein is going to order Kammie to kick Ole’ Gaff-filled Dementia Joe to curb with the 25th Amendment and a letter to Congress telling them she’s taking over. I give it till about March, but it could be as late a June.

    • Right now, the best we can hope for is that Obama is controlling the sock puppet, if Biden actually wins. All of the other potential sock puppeteers are far worse.

      • Being investors, Soros and Bloomberg bought themselves controlling interests in the DNC. Obama yearns to be a billionaire himself. He needs to keep suckling those billionaire teats for his personal political remunerations to get there.

        • And the best part for Hussein not holding any public office yet controlling the Oval Office, he can take all the pay-to-play access Graft money they want to throw at him. Perfectly legal.
          And if Dementia Joe or Kammie refuse to play along, he’s got dossier wanting for them just like he played on Trump. He can call the biilionaire payments “advisory fees” on his tax returns.

  2. A positive thought on all of this. If these bans come about, the resources will still be there. They’re not going to disappear and when the “sheeple” finally wake up and ditch these clowns, we all will benefit. Let’s hope it isn’t far away.

      • Under the Biden-Harris Plan, China will just do what Japan is doing with Australia’s Timor Sea natural gas resources. The GoM can be put into a production model like the Timor Sea gas production, where coastal infrastructure is non-existent along northwest Australia’s coastline.

        Build one of the biggest floating production platform in the world. Lay hundreds of km’s of undersea pipe to a single refrigeration plant in Darwin. Then LNG tankers carry the liquid gold to Japan and Korea.

        And Communist China looks on hungrily at all the 100 years+ of natural gas in the Timor, Java, Arafura Seas.

          • How far offshore does the oil and gas extend at its maximum, and how far does US economic exclusion zone extend? Probably both to the edge of the continental shelf but I thought I would ask anyway. Would be ironic (?) if Obiden gets the chance to block GoM oil for the US, so that China can conveniently bankroll a Mexican expansion right up to the border in the gulf. A la Clinton blocking development of lowest-sulfur coal in Wyoming so that a big Indonesian-Chinese contributor can benefit from his own low-sulfur coal mine in Indonesia.

          • The EEZ extends up to 200 nm from the edge of the continental shelf. The US and Mexico agreed to the 1978 Treaty Line as the boundary between EEZ’s, with the two “donut holes” still in dispute.

            The yellow circles are oil fields. Apart from the Perdido Field area, there aren’t a lot of places where reservoirs might cross the boundary.

  3. Not much good about hurricanes, but they do make for lots of work for the boats working in the GOM. We spent lot of time de-commissioning toppled platforms and doing inspections after Ike.
    This year, weather delays have kept us working for weeks longer than originally planned.

    • Katrina, Rita and Ike were the worst I can remember regarding infrastructure damage. The Rowan Halifax was drilling a well for us in East Cameron South Addition when Rita sank it. Two Rowan jackups were sunk and a third beached by Rita. We had lost production insurance back then and actually came out ahead. LPI was no longer available when Ike did so much pipeline damage that most of our production was shut in for months.

      This year, the physical damage wasn’t too bad. But the constant shutins seriously hurt our production and revenue. Might have even done more damage than the drop in oil prices.

      • David the reason the damage was not as bad is that the goal posts for naming storms has drastically changed. Joe Bastardi Meteorologist at Weatherbell Analytics has the statistics. I recently got a copy of his new book—“The Weaponiztion of Weather in the Phony Climate War” and although not read it I am certain he addressed this issue.

        • Yep. Back in September, a friend of mine put together an analysis of the first 12 named storms. 9 of them would not have been classified as tropical storms, much less hurricanes under the older classification system.

    • That’s when he became president. He had already been coronated, if not beatified, by the lame-stream media… 🤬

      • Allegedly OBUMMER states in his new book he was surprised when he was notified he won the Nobel Peace Prize shortly after his Coronation……his comment was…. you ready for this …..
        ” FOR WHAT”!!!
        As Dave Middleton would opine…..NOW THAT THERE IS FUNNY!!

    • I am not sure quoting an article about a Democrat Governor addressing a non-existent problem tells us much about oil being shut in or damage caused by hurricanes. Are you putting forth the idea that wind mills and solar panels won’t be harmed by hurricanes?

    • It’s even funnier with more context…

      The governor spoke at the beginning of the meeting Monday, urging the members to study and consider existing technologies, such as wind and solar power and carbon storage to meet the task force’s goals.

      “We have oil companies that are rebranding as energy companies,” Edwards said. “It doesn’t mean that they’re going to abandon oil or gas — that would not be good for us either — but it does mean that there’s a different focus.”

      The governor pointed out that four Louisiana companies helped build the nation’s first commercial offshore wind farm — in Rhode Island — a project he would like to see done here as well, he said.

      He’s at least smart enough to realize that oil and gas, particularly offshore, is important to Louisiana. However, the fact that four Louisiana companies worked on the Block Island wind farm doesn’t make offshore Louisiana similar to Rhode Island.

      Wind turbines start generating electricity when the wind speed is above 3.5 m/s and require 14-25 m/s to achieve their rated capacity.

      • Even funnier–“The task force also has a non-voting member from a federal scientific agency, Dr. Virginia Burkett, chief scientist for Climate and Land Use Change at the USGS. Burkett is a former director of Louisiana’s Department of Wildlife and Fisheries and a 2007 Nobel Peace Prize winner for her work on the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”

        I like the word “process” by Nyman, did some good work on marsh, trying to find out more about members. Wonder if governor flew over the coast after Katrina as I did? Texas has more wind, field N of Corpus Christi quiet this morning, was spared by Harvey wind field, just barely. Solar panels on a few buildings within wind field not so lucky, even flat but especially where put at an angle for the sun as on one marine lab, we predicted it, nearby palms did better. Can’t seem to stop building dumb!

  4. Cyclones are the relief valve of the ocean’s thermostat.

    With SST above 27C at latitudes higher than 10 degrees, the convective available potential energy that drives daily monsoon is able to spin up cyclones and enables them to intensify. They provide tremendous cooling to the ocean surface through their reflective power. Cyclone Isiais was the brightest spot on the planet on July 30.
    https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg20rmI6ZbdeTV0c9
    It reflected 80% of TOA insolation while still releasing 180W/sq.m of OLR. End result was a net cooling of the surface by as much as 3 degrees centigrade below its path across the tropical Atlantic. Then dumped vast amounts of energy onto the US east coast in the form of water evaporated from the oceans and condensed by OLR radiated from about 230K. (Try to get MODTRAN to produce 180W/sq.m from a 300K ocean surface – shows how silly the “greenhouse effect” really is)

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