An excellent talk by Dr. Merrit.
From DDP 38th Annual Meeting, August 16, 2020, Las Vegas, NV.
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An excellent talk by Dr. Merrit.
From DDP 38th Annual Meeting, August 16, 2020, Las Vegas, NV.
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
The dictatorship of third-rate professors.
“The most deadly virus is authoritarianism—even if it is wearing a white coat.”
My version is: A lab coat is the emperor’s new clothing.
Check out Henry Bauer’s Dogmatism in Science and Medicine: How Dominant Theories Monopolize Research and Stifle the Search for Truth
Kindle edition is $10 on Amazon at https://www.amazon.com/Dogmatism-Science-Medicine-Dominant-Monopolize-ebook/dp/B008AHNIGS/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=Dogmatism+in+Science+and+Medicine&qid=1597887603&s=books&sr=1-2
Sounds like fuzzy math to me ……..
Coronavirus outbreak on Seattle fishing boat may offer insight into immunity
(excerpted claims)
pre-departure testing found that none of the 122 crewmembers were positive for the virus.
before the ship set sail, 3 of the 122 people aboard had a positive antibody response,
18 days into its voyage, the ship returned to port after 1 person got sick and needed hospitalization.
Testing over the next 50 days showed that 104 of the 120 crew members would become infected.
the 3 who had neutralizing antibodies beforehand didn’t become infected.
the 15 other crew members who never became infected possibly had jobs on the boat that protected them from exposure,
https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-outbreak-seattle-fishing-boat-insight-immunity
In politics, you should follow the science, never the scientists.
Govts., finding themselves faced with a nasty problem, have delegated responsibility to the Senior Common Room. I presume they have never been inside one.
Does this study imply we have very little prior immunity?
85% became infected and the 3 who had “neutralizing antibodies” beforehand didn’t become infected.
This seems to confirm what I already suspected. We, in the UK, are nowhere near herd immunity.
It has been observed that Deaths/Million gets to about 600 and then the numbers of deaths decreases dramatically. That has been the experience in many countries. It doesn’t matter how many people get the disease, only how many have long term term consequences from it. In my opinion, which has little or no value, there is a process going on with this disease that is not yet understood. We are seeing an increase in cases in France and Spain and that has been going on for 4 weeks, but the number of deaths remained about the same. If that continues for another 3 weeks then we can start to draw conclusions.
Because it’s….
Summertime, Summertime
Sum Sum Sumertime
Sumerti i i i ime
Harry , I have been also looking at the cases and deaths per country , as given on the worldometer site and in particular with reference to the dreaded (according to the BBC and batty Boris) second wave. This second wave is , at present visible mainly in th NH countries which had the first wave early.
Looking at the ratios of the peaks of the 2nd / 1st waves of casescompared to deaths seems to bear out what you suspect . (I know this is not a very quantitative analysis which should use areas of peaks and allow for spikyness of daily data , but it gives a feeling for something significant I believe )
Country by country, a few examples
USA ratio of 2nd/ist wave cases : 2:1
ratio of 2nd/1st wave deaths : 1:2
similarly for others :
Spain : cases: 5:9
deaths: 7:90
UK : cases : 14:50
deaths: 2:100
Italy: cases: 3:5
deaths : 5:50
Canada: cases: 7:20
deaths: 1:17
Israel: cases: 20:5
deaths: 10:9
Netherlands: cases: 65:100
deaths: 3:150
I leave it to readers to look at other examples
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Australia however bucks the trend
Australia: cases: 40:35
deaths: 18:10
In the examples above , apart from Australia , the trend is for the 2nd wave to appear to be far less virulent than the first. Reasons for that probably include, but not restricted to, the increase in testing , giving many positive results for people with mild , certainly not fatal , symptoms , and also of course Govts have learnt not to put sick people in homes full of elderly vulnerable residents .
Leading on further, though, I wonder if the mortality of the second wave is actually the true measure of the virulence of this strain of coronavirus and if it is then the economy , career and education destruction carried out by panic stricken politicians is out of proportion to the hazard.
Interesting reply, thank you. Certainly with every flu or cold I have ever come across the ideal is to catch it late when it is petering out – get the immunity but don’t suffer. Your analysis is fully in line with my similar review of the figures. There is an evolutionary pressure on the virus to become less dangerous, it does best when the people who catch it keep walking around being as healthy as possible.
As I said, it will be very, very interesting to see how the deaths go in France and Spain over the next few weeks. Summer doesn’t explain it, there are too many very hot countries where aircon is unusual that are suffering badly, e.g. Brasil.
It looks to me that the first wave in Australia never got in full gear, so the second wave will be Australia’s actual season.
Another possibility could be that on and off HCQ+Z could have had an impact. The Trump Derangement Syndrome has caused many poor decisions.
A third factor may be diminished or overloaded immune defense for whatever reason(s).
In any case, Australia is interesting and a country to keep an eye on.
The second wave in Australia got into the nursing homes in Victoria, that’s likely a large part of the reason for the apparently high death rates.
It’s also winter here, so lower Vitamin D levels may also be playing a part.
Mikewaite; maybe because the Australian second wave was during winter whereas the other countries you mention are in the Northern hemisphere so their second wave was during the summer. This after all is like a virulent flu and flu is mainly a winter disease.
All those show “covid” deaths which is not a valid measurement IMHO. I know it’s all we got but total/excess deaths show nothing like a second wave. A “ripple” on the way out yes but not a wave.
In the USA it peaked in April and has been downhill since with a minor 2 week rise that ended the start of August and it’s on the way down. The data is incomplete but it is the one stat they have trouble “adjusting”.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Scroll down to the graph.
@ur momisugly Carl Friis-Hansen “A third factor may be diminished or overloaded immune defense for whatever reason(s).”
We normally come into contact with many viruses and bacteria every day. Our immune system deals with them and, only occasionally, do we become ill. I imagine that, like your heart, your muscles and your brain, regular use is a requirement for the immune system to remain in top condition. I therefore wonder whether social distancing, lockdowns and sheltering in place is actually weakening our immune system so that we become more susceptible to non-covid19 infections.
After many years of never catching a virus more serious than the common cold, I have just recovered from 4 weeks of shingles. I have also heard anecdotally that there has been more shingles around recently than would normally be expected.
When the lockdown is finally completely lifted, will the population suffer more viral diseases than normal ? Will 2020-21 be a bad flu season ? Will covid-19 persist, albeit at a much reduced level ?
a sample of 130 ??? hardly confirms anything … I would suggest the Diamand Princess is a better example of a test … and that doesn’t confirm your suspicion …
and your death curve does say you are near herd immunity …
Not really. Diamond Princess passengers were quarantined once the infection was discovered. The crew continued to circulate and mix on the fishing boat. DP was a much bigger vessel so contact with infected individuals would have taken longer.
a sample of 130 ???
Given that population infection for her immunity is supposed to be around 20%, what do you think the probability of 85% being infected from a sample of 130 is?
There was no effective quarantine on the DP, as the Japanese officials discovered when they went aboard. The ship had invoked its Norovirus protocols which offered no form of quarantine against Covid-19.
The DP passengers were allowed on deck for exercise where they mingled without social distancing or masks. The crew had no concept of red, green and orange zones, except for food – not for themselves. It was a joke. Not really the fault of the ship, no one told them what to do, so they went with established procedures, they lacked the expertise and training to do better.
There was no effective quarantine on the DP,
It was not perfect but it prevented more the virus becoming more widespread. Also plenty of countries have seen seroprevalence levels well in excess of 20%.
Probably spread fast enough on a fishing boat that herd immunity didn’t have a chance to develop until most or all of those were infected. Would have met zero resistance initially.
Maybe around 20% in a typical population keeps it from spreading, but I don’t think that applies to this setting and situation. I mean as an extreme example, if you have 1 infected person in a room of 5, does that imply herd immunity should keep the other 4 people safe? Likely 100% infection. So maybe 130 on a fishing boat gets you 85% infection. But maybe 67 million people spread across the UK, it gets you 20%.
Seroprevalence? You can’t take that to the bank unless you’re foolish.
“ plenty of countries have seen seroprevalence levels well in excess of 20%”
But the cheaper tests for this have predictive values of 50%. If so, they tell us nothing! If they’re higher quality, they may tell us something. You cannot gauge the difference without knowing which tests for seroprevalence are predictive.
Depends what ‘being infected’ means….
herd immunity in a fishing boat… compare to uk…
Does one acquire “temporary” herd immunity when flying in airplanes?
Not at all. Hepatitis filtration on planes is excellent. The danger is who sits next to you and what’s in their droplets and micro droplets.
Valve masks are a type of N95 mask that have a one-way valve allowing exhaled air to pass through a small round or square filter disc attached to the front. Some commercially available cloth masks also feature a valve
The purpose of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s universal masking guidelines is to prevent viral transmission from infected individuals to people around them. Exhaled air passes unfiltered into the environment, taking potential coronavirus droplets with it and defeating the mask’s one important purpose — protecting those around you.
Few (none?) recommend the use of valved masks to prevent the transmission from infected.
My favorite meme today:
You keep saying that me not wearing a mask is killing YOU. It’s been months. How much longer will it take?
ROFLMAO
On the other hand, having a valve means that you are less likely to re-infect yourself with every breath. So the masks recommended for suppressing transmission actually make a small infection of the disease worse for the wearer. The Deputy Chief Medical Officer of the UK said as much last March.
Don’t expect anyone to say the same at the moment. It is not politically correct….
Bingo, and now most skewl districts around the nation are going to force children to wear masks for 7 hours a day while at school. Sneezing, coughing, and drooling on a piece of cotton on their face while the 2020/21 influenza season gets going, what a brilliant idea.
How many times do I need to call these people The Death Cult of Zero Worship before everyone catches on that it’s not a joke?
And if/when infections spike, they’ll say we shouldn’t have opened schools and will scream to close them again.
Dodgy
Just what do you mean by “re-infect yourself?” Are you suggesting that one can get well by just breathing a lot and expelling viruses?
If you are infected you are shedding the virus. If you are shedding 25% of that virus onto a piece of cotton you have on your face, some of that virus is going to go right back into nose, mouth, throat, and lungs when you inhale. If you have a current infection in your upper respiratory tract, wearing a mask increases the risk that you will then develop a lower respiratory tract infection where the real damage is done.
An assertion with zero evidence to back it up, which is contradicted by experience over many decades, and just plain common sense.
Probably hopeless, Clyde.
For anyone who is still beholden to actual evidence, a new paper was just released.
Studying HCQ in people who were already taking it, and looking for any sign of prophylaxis.
It sounds like the authors expected to find a benefit, but they could not:
Hydroxychloroquin(sic) ineffective for COVID-19
prophylaxis in lupus and rheumatoid arthritis
https://ard.bmj.com/content/annrheumdis/early/2020/08/05/annrheumdis-2020-218500.full.pdf
And not one mention of zinc. I wonder if they ever have used an epoxy cement.
And there are studies to the contrary. HCQ significantly improves viability.
Why would there be a mention of zinc?
i thought it was well known that zinc can reduce the ability of RNA type viruses to replicate themselves…. and is therefore recommended to be taken along with HCQ to increase the effectiveness of HCQ regarding the prevention or treatment of early onset covid infections?
Anyone who bothered to read the report will see that it is an observational study, looking at people who were taking HCQ prior to the pandemic.
As for “well known”, so is CO2 caused global warming.
I would say a more apt description is to say it is “strongly believed” by some people.
So far, that has never caused anything to morph into the truth.
It is necessary to have an exceptionally fine tuned sense of selective attention to believe at this pint in time that it is even remotely possible that HCQ will turn out to have any in vivo anti viral activity against this or any other virus.
“Associate Professor, Department of Population & Quantitative Health Sciences, School of Medicine
Vice Chair for Education
Dr. Mendel E. Singer plays a significant role in the department leading the development and promotion of graduate programs, which have grown considerably under his direction. In addition to his oversight and teaching responsibilities, his own methods research focuses on new approaches to interpreting diagnostic/lab tests, analysis of electronic health records and cost-effectiveness analysis. His research has focused on the medical areas of opioid overdose, hepatitis C and sexual assault. He also has been active in building native capacity for determining the most cost-effective use of limited resources for health care in developing nations.”
Not at all a virologist or immunologist. Same is true for the coauthors. They have no idea what they are doing.
I swear what is happening is unqualified people are publishing studies based on what Trump has said and not what the science has said.
No journal should be publishing this trash. A journal should know that when we say Hydroxychlorquine (HCQ) to fight cronoviruses what what is actually being discussed is a protocol of HCQ, zinc, and Z-pac.
2010 A landmark study is published in PLOS
“Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture”
https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1001176
So in vitro zinc is a potent antiviral for coronavirus. Problem is that is in vitro. In vivo the cell wall is largely impermeable to zinc. So taking Zinc wont have any significant affect on the virus because it cant enter the cell to any significant amount.
So what is needed to get over that in vivo barier? You need a zinc inopher. HCQ is a zing inophere that makes the cell permeable to zinc.
“Chloroquine Is a Zinc Ionophore”
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0109180
Regardless of what Trump may have said, it is a cocktail just like the aids cocktail. Zinc alone does not work. HCQ alone does not work. During the aids epidemic AZT alone did not work but AZT was part of the first cocktail that did work.
Science: “belief in the ignorance of experts” — Richard Feynman
And there was a man who knew whereof he spoke!
Of course these masks are useless, there are gaps all over the place.
Anyone who has worn one and gone out to do the grocery shopping or whatever little freedom of movement we have left, finds very quickly that warm, moist air starts pushing out everywhere around the sides of the mask. And even though this is happening the wearer is in a state of discomfort experiencing increased temperature and oxygen starvation through reinhaling CO2.
In short, the masks are useless.
But the authorities are mandating them because, since they foolishly invested in the fear campaign, they have to be seen to be doing something to keep people onside.
Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia August 19, 2020 at 4:29 am
A… moist air starts pushing out everywhere around the sides of the mask. And even though this is happening the wearer is in a state of discomfort experiencing increased temperature and oxygen starvation through reinhaling CO2.
—————-
Air will pass through mask and if badly fitted round the sides. Masks do little to suppress the transmission of virus – either way. Their sole purpose is to reduce the spread of the air expelled from your mouth and nose. Some viruses may get stuck to masks and may reduce your virus load but certainly not many.
It has been proven by many people that o2 saturation is totally unaffected (buy an oximeter and try it for yourself) Also Co2 cannot build up unless you have a massive airspace behind the mask that physics.
And of course healthcare people wear them continuously and do not keel over
Where is your proof of your statement?
healthcare people only wear them continuosly is a controlled envirnonment where extra air flow is pumped in to offest the reduce O2 intake … OSHA standards …
and what physics are you thinking around C02 buildup ??? … of course it builds up and you rebreath it …
Cannot see where it says that O2 levels are increased to allow for use of masks.
just this:
https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/etools/hospital/surgical/surgical.html
Provide enough ventilation in the surgical suite to keep the room concentration of waste anesthetic gases below the applicable occupational exposure levels. The ventilation design and specifications should meet the most current American Institute of Architect’s Guidelines for Design and Construction of Health Care Facilities.
Healthcare people wear masks:
1 – for short periods
2 – but change them often
3 – and do not wear them while they are ill.
The problem with strapping a mask around your face is that it soon becomes contaminated with your breath. This is a problem IF you have a respiratory illness starting, because it will concentrate the virus load in your body, and turn a minor illness into a severe one.
Yes, there are negative effects and these are not being addressed. I think we do need to push back at the inanity.
Dodgy
You said, “… because it will concentrate the virus load in your body, and turn a minor illness into a severe one.” You have some strange ideas! Do you have any evidence to support your claim?
I have heard of operations lasting several hours. I don’t imagine that the surgeon or nurses leave the operating room every 20 minutes to change masks!
All aside from the fact that CO2 concentration has to get extreme relative to the open atmosphere to have any measurable effect. It couldn’t get anywhere near that in a mask that isn’t completely sealed to the person. At that point you either need piped in O2 or you are a quick goner.
If, as the video says, based on evidence and testing, that virus particles and micro drops easily pass through even n95 rated masks, how much trouble would orders of magnitude smaller air molecules have?
Regardless, in order to avoid conflict, I started wearing a mask in stores. This easily becomes uncomfortable on hot days and it sometimes seems difficult to breath. I have had to breath more deeply and faster to avoid feeling faint and unsteady. I don’t know the reason but a little higher CO2 concentration, if that actually occurs, hardly seems likely to be responsible.
How large is a CO2 molecule?
How large are the gaps between fibres in a mask?
How many molecules of CO2 can pass through the caps between the mask fibres?
Answer those questions and you will see why hypoxia is not caused by wearing a mask
wow … you are silly … you can do the experiment yourself … put your hand 6 inches in front of your face and exhale softly (i.e. like when breathing …) you’ll feel it on you hand … now do the same with a sugical mask on … you won’t feel it … the airflow is restricted … i.e. alot of your exhaled gases remain … not all some will pass thru the mask due to the pressure difference … but plenty of them will remain … to be rebreathed in …
fear makes people grasp at nonsense …
you don’t wear a mask 6″ in front of your face
now place your hand over your mouth and nose and exhale softly i.e. like when breathing (if you can’t feel it, you’re already dead)
you’re hand has more chance of stopping exhaled CO2 than a mask.
fear does make people grasp at nonsense
The Dark Lord August 19, 2020 at 6:19 am
now do the same with a sugical mask on … you won’t feel it … the airflow is restricted … i.e. alot of your exhaled gases remain … not all some will pass thru the mask due to the pressure difference … but plenty of them will remain … to be rebreathed in …
————————-
You are having me on aren’t you?
The mask prevents you blowing a gust of infected wind over long distance by spreading the are of the exhalation and therefore the speed is reduced (same volume greater cross section). The lack of “feel ” is proof of function!
Now i guess if the air temperature was the same as the exhaled CO2 (no thermals causing co2 to rise/fall) and you breathed in very quickly (no time for the motion of the warm gas to mix by natural molecular motion rms speed of co2 at 27°C is 13m/s) and there was no wind and you were not moving and you did not turn your head then there may be more CO2 than normal in the air you breathe.
It is said that if you wear that mask until the end of the century, the temperature inside the mask might rise from 2 to 20 deg… that might even affect sea levels.
Good luck to all….
The main problem is restriction because as you indicate the masks cannot filter out CO2. There may be some physiological pH effect but it’s probably not significant.
I’m in reasonably good shape but wearing a mask climbing a two or three flights of stairs, I definitely get winded. Without a mask I could go 10 stories without breaking a sweat.
Saw a guy out alone in a small boat fishing with a mask on the other day – don’t think he was wearing his life jacket. He is doing what our health broadcasts say he ought to be. On the ferries you have to possess a mask in case of emergency muster. These seems like a lot of people with what we used to call ‘room temperature IQ’ before conversion to centigrade.
Matthew
Your claim strikes me as being similar to claiming that a bucket with a small hole is useless for bailing a boat. It may be less efficient (depending on the size of the hole) but it is still better than using only one’s hands. One isn’t going to be infected by a single virus. Therefore, anything that reduces the number of viruses being expelled or inhaled will reduce the probability of being infected. “Perfection is the enemy of good.”
If waves coming over the sides of the boat are also filling the boat, then the bucket with holes in it cannot match the volume of those waves. If the bucket gets filled by that volume, then it can no longer function to dip from the bottom of the boat.
Virus aerosols are emitted somewhat through pores and somewhat around the edges, and who knows what happens exactly to droplets and aerosols inside the mask after they hit the fibers and pores? Does continued breathing serve to break up a large droplet, push it through a pore, provide a channel for the tiny viral particle to slide through and catch a ride with the next available bit of floating moisture? Do the large droplets clog up the pores and force the smaller particles out the sides of the mask, while accumulating more infectious doses inside the mask, which then get pulverized to add to the infectious dose of exiting air?
” One isn’t going to be infected by a single virus.”
So you believe the research quoted in the video is fake?
Putting an N95 mask [or several] in an Instant Pot [without water, for an hour, insulated by a towel] decontaminates it: study
Last year’s hot kitchen appliance is trendy again — this time, for being a virus killer. Read in New York Post: https://apple.news/AvEzGav9KQp-xvtzRaROGQQ
She said she takes 10,000 IU per day vitamin D.
Too much. She’ll have to pee every 15 minutes.
I’ve read you can get 10,000 IU of vitamin D from 30 minutes in summer sunlight.
btw, her talk was longer than 15 minutes. Do you think she was wearing a nappy?
Good one. Lectern puddles not allowed.
“Lectern puddles not allowed.”
No problem. Everyone seems to call them podiums anyway.
“Do you think she was wearing a nappy?”
Doesn’t everybody?
icisil, I was under the impression the Vit D forms in the living skin (from the sunlight) and then gradually up-taken by the blood over time.
There is absolutely no physical problem with taking Vit. D supplement of 10,000.
The change in the US population’s Vit D status is the explanation for the drop in the covid death rate, in the US.
The recommended daily Vit. D supplement to fight covid is 5,000 UI/day in a paper published by the lead Vit D researchers in the US based on 10 years of research.
https://www.grassrootshealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/McDonnell-2018-breast-cancer-GRH.pdf
The proportion with breast cancer was 78% lower for >60 ng/ml vs <20 ng/ml (P = 0.02). Third, multivariate Cox regression revealed that women with 25(OH)D concentrations 60 ng/ml had an 80% lower risk of breast cancer than women with concentrations <20 ng/ml (HR = 0.20, P = 0.03), adjusting for age, BMI, smoking status, calcium supplement intake, and study of origin.
The VItamin D testing for breast cancer and calcium absorption (80% reduction in the incidence of breast cancer for those people who has a Vit D 25(OH)D blood serum level that is greater than 60 ng/ml.
There has never been an side effect noted in any of the Vit. D studies. Zero side effects. Zero side effects and a 19 times less chance of dying from covid.
https://emerginnova.com/patterns-of-covid19-mortality-and-vitamin-d-an-indonesian-study/
Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study
Vitamin D Insufficient Patients 12.55 times more likely to die, blood serum 25(OH)D level from 21 to 29 ng/ml
Vitamin D Deficient Patients 19.12 times more likely to die, Vitamin D blood serum level less than 20 ng/ml
Vitamin D ‘normal’ for this study is 25(0H)D above 30 ng/ml.
Dr Merritt gets a couple of points wrong.
– HCQ presumably works as an antiviral by blocking/inhibiting acidification of the lysosome, not “by acidifying the lysosome” as she said.
– her description of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) of viral infections in amplifying macrophage/monocyte infection was technically incorrect by the mechanism she described. But Substantively correct though.
She is spot-on correct about masks and their lack of effectiveness. They are ineffective to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in prolonged contact, closed spaced settings between wearers where one is infected and shedding virus. The clinical community has known for 20+ years with influenza that surgical style masks are not effective at meaningfully lowering transmission of these airborne respiratory viruses. If you put 20 uninfected in room for a sustained period with and without masks, and one infected shedding virus, you would probably get 15 +/-3 infected without masks wearing, and 12 +/-3 infected with masks. That difference is statistically indistinguishable given all the factors that would also subtly vary like age, health status, etc.
As for the Moderna mRNA SARS-2 vaccine and also the DNA SARS-2 vaccine in trials, there is no way in hell I’d take either vaccine. Those vaccines will almost assuredly k1ll SOME small % of people when they go on to actually contract the virus and become infected. Possibly by ADE, but more likely IMO from a non-protective Th2 asthma-like immunopathology response when some people then contract the actual virus in the community setting.
Otherwise a good talk.
Yeah, good talk.
Masks basically cannot provide protection from “prolonged” contact. They do prevent someone from blowing their breath directly into one’s face. From this aspect, in effect they increase social distance/contact over short periods. They also help reduce the spread of droplets.
People would be surprised to learn that some CV tests produce false positive rates up to 5% and and even higher if the tests are not performed correctly. CDC reports on this and are clearly fearing mongering.
S. Korea btw is exhibiting a new wave of outbreaks as are many other countries attesting to the difficulty of suppression. Deaths are still basically non-existent there.
So moronielles believe — according to survey data — that Covid19 is 10,000 times more deadly than it is? If so, the future is doomed. They are too innumerate to rule the world.
I’m curious.
The example she gave about certain SARS vaccines becoming fatal when the recipient encounters yet another viral infection seemed a bit unclear.
Did she say, or rather is it true that some/all of those persons/animals had problems like that ?
Does this means that those who get the SARS-COv2 vaccine may have major problems when the next coronavirus comes down the pike ?
This is a convoluted research path and I’m not equipped to explain it precisely. But I can offer some notes,
In 1966 a disaster trial of infants and a new RSV vaccine candidate. It had produced great antibodies but mysteriously the infants who contracted actual RSV experienced a deadly and accelerated form of disease. At the time blame was placed on formalin/formaldehyde used to render virus inactive. This explanation stood for many years. Then in 2008 new insight suggesting not formalin as cause but “affinity maturation could be a cause of the failure. Affinity maturation is a phenomenon in which antibodies become highly specialized in attacking specific pathogens.”
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/263497
The lay explanation is when determining a vaccine candidate is promising simple presence of antigens are looked for. But not all antigens are created equal (T and B).
Then in 2012 a SARS-CoV vaccine test went awry in the same manner, it was a “challenge” trial where vaccine antibodies are observed but THEN they are deliberately infected with wild virus. When Lee shows slide of belly-up rodents she is referring to this I think. Animals died and the researchers brilliantly noted parallel with 1966 disaster. They end with a warning not to conside human trials yet.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/pdf/
“t animals given an alum adjuvanted SARS vaccine and subsequently challenged with SARS-CoV exhibited an immunopathologic lung reaction reminiscent of that described for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in infants and in animal models given RSV vaccine and challenged naturally (infants) or artificially (animals) with RSV [32,33]. We and others described a similar immunopathologic reaction in mice vaccinated with a SARS-CoV vaccine and subsequently challenged with SARS-CoV [18,20,21,28]. It has been proposed that the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV is the antigen to which the immunopathologic reaction is directed [18,21]. Thus, concern for proceeding to humans with candidate SARS-CoV vaccines emerged from these various observations.”
Then in 2013 barely a year later, a further revisit of the 1966 disaster might be the key to ending the mystery,
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3581918/
“These findings reveal an unexpected mechanism of vaccine-induced disease augmentation and indicate that selective chemoattraction of Tregs into diseased sites may offer a novel approach to the modulation of tissue-specific inflammation.”
MedCram in a recent episode describes how T cell immunity may explain the “natural” immunity observed to ‘new’ COVID, T-cells aquired from previous similar coronavirus infection.
Actually I reread it and it reminded me of a potential problem I dreamed up when I hear that it might take multiple doses.
I wondered if the second dose wasn’t the same as (or properly matched with) the original vaccine, there could be a bad reaction.
She also got Dr. Zelenko’s residence wrong—it’s not in the NY City borough of Queens, but in a small town north of NY City.
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/08/19/bill-gates-passes-on-chance-to-slam-trump-says-virus-response-falls-on-us-we-believe-in-freedom-962090
I reject as false Bill Gates’ views about Covid-19. It was a relatively mild flu that was ~only dangerous for the elderly and infirm – there was no need for the full-Gulag lockdown of children and the workforce – that lockdown was a needless and destructive over-reaction that cost many trillions of dollars and harmed billions of lives,
I published that conclusion on 21March2020 and it is now accepted as correct by competent medical personnel. Covid deaths in the USA peaked on 16April2020 and in Canada on 1May2020. We do NOT need a vaccine – the Covid flu will die out like every other flu in human history, when herd immunity is reached, All the lockdown did was extend the time before herd immunity is reached, probably increasing the death toll and increasing the risk that Covid will extend into next year’s flu season. Sweden did it mostly right – most other countries including the USA, UK and Canada did it mostly wrong.
The only remaining question is: Was the full-Gulag lockdown a costly error or a deliberate scam?
Just how much damage is done to those that recover?
Keep it up Alan – you’ll convince more Cletus and Karens and other village idiots to enjoy their covid parties. It will only improve the intelligence of the US – Evolution in Action.
‘Tis but the flu.”
There is no FDA-approved MRNA treatment for anything. Unless something happens that makes my risk from Covid higher than the risk of taking an MRNA vaccine, I won’t be among the first 4 or 5 billion to seek treatment.
At the end, Dr. Merrit said, “when the humidity went up, the transmission, the RO value, went down. So… unfortunately, that’s true.” Unfortunately? What am I missing here? You’re going to have a bad hair day if the RO value goes down?
Makes you wonder why Miami’s rate is so high…..
When the heat goes up, the people are inside. And if talking in Spanish, saying twice as many words and much faster than if in English. From the tip of Texas…
More people going indoors, especially night clubs, using AC having more and longer contact. More testing which finds more mild cases in addition to false positives.
I have a child at UNC that is being booted out of the dorm as teaching has just been moved to on-line. It’s my understanding that some of the cases there exhibited little or no symptoms among the clusters.
Condolences. I too have son and girlfriend ‘sheltering’ with us since April. Grocery bill up x6. On the other hand, perhaps its good to have quality time with one’s adult children, and they are getting an off-season rental as of Oct 1.
1. Miami is very densely populated
2. There is a large population of elderly persons
3. Many New Yorkers fled to So. Florida when NY locked down tight. They may or may not have assisted in the spread.
4. Lots of multi generational households
5. Its filthy
The Dade and Broward Counties are where all the New Yorkers fled to at the beginning of this.
They brought the virus with them before quarantines were in place.
Wrong! Tens of thousands fled NYC AFTER a Shelter In Place was issued. Generalissimo Cuomo called the Wuhan Virus the “European Virus” – because it came to NYC from Italy, or something.
Using that “logic” the rest of the country should call the Wuhan Virus The New York Virus.
Liberalism is a mental disorder.
In what way was Tom’s comment wrong?
“They brought the virus with them BEFORE quarantines were in place.”
There was a graphic circulating back in late March that showed how many cell phones from NYC had fanned out across these fruited plains in the 48 hours after Generalissimo Cuomo issued a Shelter In Place order for NYC. It was appalling to see – tens of thousands fled the city, taking the virus with them EVERYWHERE.
“We now have enough data to feel pretty confident that New York was the primary gateway for the rest of the country,” said Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health.
It would be EXTREMELY helpful for this post to include something about the DDP, such as who the heck is the DDP and something about the speaker. Who the heck is Dr. Merritt?
Doctors for Disaster Preparedness. (A simple search of DDP + a little extra to give context – for instance “DDP 38th Annual Meeting, August 16, 2020”)
Outstanding lecture!!!!
Calling a positive PCR test a case of covid is like calling a positive result on a test that can detect a negative thought towards one’s spouse a case of domestic violence.
Come on man, are you on crack or something? I’d be arrested more than if I were black under Kamala Harris’s jurisdiction. /s
In France, and probably everywhere, it isn’t what most think of PCR testing as in DNA comparisons.
There is just ONE primer used in large scale population testing. It could match short remains of the virus. It doesn’t prove the person is infectious.
I thought DDP ‘Doctors for Disaster Preparedness’ was akin to Médecins Sans Frontières but it is another group dressing in white coats (behind a name that suggests knowledge and authority) to validate their views like “America’s Frontline Doctors”
Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (DDP) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization located in Tucson, Arizona.[1] The group is closely affiliated with the American Association of Physicians and Surgeons, a politically conservative nonprofit association advocating numerous discredited hypotheses including AIDS denialism.[2] It is run by Arizona physician Jane Orient.[3]
Oh dear the power of social media.
According to Bloomberg News, the group was “founded to promote civil defense during the Cold War”, and has been “transformed over the years into a forum” on “fringe-science topics” such as global warming denial.[3] DDP was described by The Guardian as a “fringe political group” and as a “truly bizarre lobby group”.[2] It promotes the denialist view that man-made global warming is not real or not an important concern.[2]
Presentations at the 2015 meeting included a theory about links between John F. Kennedy’s assassination and the deaths of his brother and son; a prediction that the aim of Obamacare was to cause the collapse the U.S. health-care system and a recommendation “that the audience start stockpiling medications and finding doctors who would work for cash”; a sympathetic discussion of the theory that low doses of radiation are “beneficial to human health”; and an argument that the HIV virus does not cause AIDS, but instead was invented by government scientists who wanted to cover up other health risks of “the lifestyle of homosexual men.”[3] The meeting was covered by conservative website Breitbart, attended by George Gilder, and the conservative Heartland Institute sent its science director to present his plan to abolish the Environmental Protection Agency.
Many of the ideas of discreditation you present have been “discredited”. Your bias and logical fallacy precede you as you rely on “authority” to make your point. And the number or prominence of authorities supporting an idea is no more value than a consensus.
The Guardian as an authority? How does Sponge Bob’s laugh go?
VicV August 19, 2020 at 6:14 am
————-
can you link to proof that masks cause low o2 saturation or co2 poisoning?
Can you explain why the rest of the world does not believe in HCQ treatment when they have no horse in the race (eg fauci) they are not paid by others than usa.
Anti trump – unlikely as it would be simple to provide the HCQ regimen but more expensive to do the vaccine – although trump is a word of derision in places other than us.
Can you prove “the rest of the world does not believe in HCQ treatment”?
It doesn’t matter what I would say. If you’re not objective enough to approach these things as a scientific study looking to prove the OPPOSITE of what you prejudicially believe, you’re hopelessly lost to the propaganda.
Ghalfrunt, or Gag Halfrunt, is the brain specialist that orders the destruction of the Earth in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy because, if the question of the meaning of life is answered, it would put him out of business as a psychiatrist.
Sounds about right.
Your quotes sound like they came straight out of Wikipedia.
icisil August 19, 2020 at 6:28 am
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i thought that was obvious
And I thought my ridicule was obvious.
Um.
Anything hated by the Guardian cannot be ALL bad. Looking at the accusations, I see that you treat not believing in the Climate Change Disaster hypothesis as a crank position, the abolition of the EPA similarly, and a discussion on radiation limits as obviously wrong, in spite of the well-attested radiation hormesis effect, shown in numerous experiments…
Why is this?
Still waiting for the reply. Not holding my breath, but still waiting…
Most likely just another drive-by trolling.
Bueller… Bueller… Bueller…
Is it the PCR test that is producing 30% false positives that I have been reading about?
In some places, lab techs were apparently not adequately trained and it might even be worse than that.
Covid, a very appropriate name for the “du jour” version of what Operation Mockingbird was supposed to be back then.
I heard from a medical professional the other day that digital certificates are going to be part of the program once a vaccine is produced. They aren’t going to force anyone to get one but your access to society might be limited if you don’t.
OK, is anyone going to come out and complain about HCQ at this point?
We had big arguments over that in previous WUWT threads.
What is new information is that HCQ may be effective against regular FLU. That is hopeful news, and certainly motivation not to vaccinate. Wow.
Mann
https://scitechdaily.com/new-research-finds-hydroxychloroquine-is-not-a-possible-defense-against-covid-19/
I would venture that any time there are a large number of studies that get conflicting results there is probably a large element of statistical variation. That may explain why half of all medical studies can’t be replicated. In any event, it is not acceptable to just rely on the studies that get the results you want to believe in. That is called “Cherry Picking.”
Besides the couple dozen drugs that have shown some efficacy for COVID-19 in the lab, recently there have been claims that asthma drugs and birth control pills also seem to have value. When there are so many drugs showing apparent efficacy, one should also consider the possibility of a strong placebo effect.
The one picks the good cherries, the other picks the bad ones.
Is there any difference ?
Gans
You asked if there is any difference. Yes, there is. The claim has been made that HCQ is useful for curing COVID-19. Any time a hypothesis is presented, the presenter has the obligation to prove it (or at least disprove the null-hypothesis). Indeed, Sagan suggested that there is a direct relationship between the strength of the proof and the ‘novelty’ of the claim. That is, the natural condition for science is to be skeptical of claims and demand strong proof. If there is evidence both supporting and denying a claim, then it isn’t strong evidence, and the resolution should remain open until adequate proof is provided. In over a century there has NEVER been an experiment that has shown that Einstein’s theory is wrong.
What is interesting about the HCQ efficacy claim is that the basic dose recommended is the same as for other purposes. It should strike one that the optimal dose for different diseases is unlikely. That is, suppressing an autoimmune response is different from inhibiting the reproduction of a virus.
It has been claimed that a reasonable explanation for the efficacy of HCQ is that it acts as an “ionophore” for zinc. However, I haven’t seen any studies that demonstrate the relationship between the HCQ dose and the optimal amount of zinc necessary to be effective. Proponents of the zinc requirement just adopt what some physicians claim they have used. Again, how likely is it that the optimal zinc dose was arrived at immediately without any trials to characterize the ‘amplifying’ effect of HCQ (if any)? It might be that large doses of zinc alone are effective. Where are the studies?
I’m suspicious that if it had been Pelosi who recommended HCQ, instead of Trump, many here would not be demonstrating the same kind of religious fervor for a treatment of questionable value.
If Nancy Pelosi had recommended HCQ the media would have lauded her as the savior of mankind, immediately started a campaign for her Nobel Prize Nomination, and HCQ would be available at every mini-mart in America in a handy-dandy, Pez-like, dispenser.
The campaign against HCQ has little to do with the efficacy of the drug. If aspirin were touted by Trump as good for relieving pain, inflammation and fever it would be roundly attacked by the media as a deadly poison and the 24/7 news cycle would be full of aspirin scare stories for days on end.
“the natural condition for science is to be skeptical of claims and demand strong proof. If there is evidence both supporting and denying a claim, then it isn’t strong evidence, and the resolution should remain open until adequate proof is provided”
I couldn’t agree more.
Not really. Diamond Princess passengers were quarantined once the infection was discovered. The crew continued to circulate and mix on the fishing boat. DP was a much bigger vessel so contact with infected individuals would have taken longer.
a sample of 130 ???
Given that population infection for her immunity is supposed to be around 20%, what do you think the probability of 85% being infected from a sample of 130 is?
I’m 67, and have never had a flu shot. Others can take the Covid-19 vaccine, and who knows, maybe it will help, but I don’t believe I will. I prefer preventive approaches like boosting your immune system with Vitamin D3 & K(1 &2), C, and Zinc, plenty of time outdoors (as much as possible), walking, gardening, or whatever, and if I were to get the disease which I think is highly unlikely, then treat with the HCQ “cocktail”. I frankly don’t have much respect for, or faith in the medical establishment. Doctors used to actually care about their patients. Now, they are just part of a giant, money-making machine.
Bruce Cobb August 19, 2020 at 7:29 am
… Doctors used to actually care about their patients. Now, they are just part of a giant, money-making machine
—————
Health care workers in a society where “free” health care is available to all do not get paid more money for using specific treatments. Surgeons in the NHS do not operate on someone just to bring in more money. They are fully employed and salaried.
They can of course do private work to boost their wealth.
Reading comprehension much? I didn’t say that the doctors themselves benefit financially, although they get the “benefit” of being part of a giant industry.
A lot of doctors are obviously into medicine for the money and prestige (at least in the US), but this disease has taught me that more than a few doctors care very much for their patients and serve their best interests. I can’t imagine having to do what they do constrained by a system that couldn’t care less about patients’ well-being. Here’s interesting insight into the matter, particularly the part about ventilators (at least to me it is).
COVID-19: Physicians in Shackles
https://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2020/05/02/covid-19-physicians-in-shackles/
Bruce
You are being illogical. You said, “I frankly don’t have much respect for, or faith in the medical establishment.” It is members of the medical establishment that have recommended the HCQ cocktail that you are willing to take. Think about it!
refleckt about “establishment” 😀
Gans
Good advice — for yourself! The “establishment” isn’t a monolith. Only a minority of practicing physicians, although free to use HCQ under the rules of compassionate care, have chosen to do so. My physician laughed when I asked him if he was using it for himself or his family. He is a small practitioner, not a member of the evil Big Pharma.
I think, you don’t understand, what establishment means.
A doctor prescribing HCQ isn’t part of the establishment, just in contrast, at least in USA.
If your family history indicates vulnerability to Alzheimer’s disease, you might want to change that! Because last spring a large study launched to assess whether flu shots at a mature age worsened later risk of Alzheimer’s instead discovered a very significant diminished disease effect.
IIRC, taking one seasonal flu vaccine shot gave about 17% protection against later developing Alzheimer’s. And taking two seasonal vaccine shots upped the effect to around 30%. (A single pneumonia vaccine shot yielded similar protective effects, but both types of vaccines together did not produce greater effects.)
Again, if I recall correctly, these were vaccines gotten for people in their mid or later 50s through middle 60s. And the Alzheimer’s disease was looked for developing in later decades in life.
Shocking if something so simple might help that much. Good news if it stands further study.
Let me rephrase that
Health care industry in a society where “free” health care is available to all do not get more money for using specific treatments. hospitals in the NHS do not operate on someone just to bring in more money. They are funded by all.
They can of course do private work to boost their wealth.
I keep hearing and reading of claims that a number of countries are using Hydroxychloroquine but no source is provided for this information. I’m not sure I consider newspaper articles as reliable sources.
Of you did not learn it on a blog, it is a lie.
See https://www.hcqtrial.com/ and https://c19study.com/ (FWIW)
Real world studies of masks prove their ineffectiveness. One study showed cloth masks with no filter was worse than no mask at all because it dispersed the exhale into smaller droplets and increased the area covered. Aside from pure cloth the effectiveness was more impacted by fit than filter and masks loaded with virons are also worse than no mask at all. All the studies I’ve seen assumed exhaled droplets could contain virus as they are too small to practically count without going to great lengths.
Real world studies
IMO the only ones that really matter.
May 5 issue of Emerging Infectious Disease Journal had an article that cited several of those.
Every literate person who understands the English language should watch Dr. Merritt’s talk. I especially loved where she showed that lawmakers and government employees are exempted from a bunch of the mask-wearing mandates across the US. Masks and other restrictions are for the unwashed masses, not for those who make the laws that the rest of us have to live by.
COVID-19 Treatment – Analysis of 78 global studies showing high effectiveness for early treatment