The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change
An excellent talk by Dr. Merrit.
From DDP 38th Annual Meeting, August 16, 2020, Las Vegas, NV.
The dictatorship of third-rate professors.
“The most deadly virus is authoritarianism—even if it is wearing a white coat.”
My version is: A lab coat is the emperor’s new clothing.
Check out Henry Bauer’s Dogmatism in Science and Medicine: How Dominant Theories Monopolize Research and Stifle the Search for Truth
Kindle edition is $10 on Amazon at https://www.amazon.com/Dogmatism-Science-Medicine-Dominant-Monopolize-ebook/dp/B008AHNIGS/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=Dogmatism+in+Science+and+Medicine&qid=1597887603&s=books&sr=1-2
Sounds like fuzzy math to me ……..
Coronavirus outbreak on Seattle fishing boat may offer insight into immunity
pre-departure testing found that none of the 122 crewmembers were positive for the virus.
before the ship set sail, 3 of the 122 people aboard had a positive antibody response,
18 days into its voyage, the ship returned to port after 1 person got sick and needed hospitalization.
Testing over the next 50 days showed that 104 of the 120 crew members would become infected.
the 3 who had neutralizing antibodies beforehand didn’t become infected.
the 15 other crew members who never became infected possibly had jobs on the boat that protected them from exposure,
In politics, you should follow the science, never the scientists.
Govts., finding themselves faced with a nasty problem, have delegated responsibility to the Senior Common Room. I presume they have never been inside one.
Does this study imply we have very little prior immunity?
85% became infected and the 3 who had “neutralizing antibodies” beforehand didn’t become infected.
This seems to confirm what I already suspected. We, in the UK, are nowhere near herd immunity.
It has been observed that Deaths/Million gets to about 600 and then the numbers of deaths decreases dramatically. That has been the experience in many countries. It doesn’t matter how many people get the disease, only how many have long term term consequences from it. In my opinion, which has little or no value, there is a process going on with this disease that is not yet understood. We are seeing an increase in cases in France and Spain and that has been going on for 4 weeks, but the number of deaths remained about the same. If that continues for another 3 weeks then we can start to draw conclusions.
Sum Sum Sumertime
Sumerti i i i ime
Harry , I have been also looking at the cases and deaths per country , as given on the worldometer site and in particular with reference to the dreaded (according to the BBC and batty Boris) second wave. This second wave is , at present visible mainly in th NH countries which had the first wave early.
Looking at the ratios of the peaks of the 2nd / 1st waves of casescompared to deaths seems to bear out what you suspect . (I know this is not a very quantitative analysis which should use areas of peaks and allow for spikyness of daily data , but it gives a feeling for something significant I believe )
Country by country, a few examples
USA ratio of 2nd/ist wave cases : 2:1
ratio of 2nd/1st wave deaths : 1:2
similarly for others :
Spain : cases: 5:9
UK : cases : 14:50
Italy: cases: 3:5
deaths : 5:50
Canada: cases: 7:20
Israel: cases: 20:5
Netherlands: cases: 65:100
I leave it to readers to look at other examples
Australia however bucks the trend
Australia: cases: 40:35
In the examples above , apart from Australia , the trend is for the 2nd wave to appear to be far less virulent than the first. Reasons for that probably include, but not restricted to, the increase in testing , giving many positive results for people with mild , certainly not fatal , symptoms , and also of course Govts have learnt not to put sick people in homes full of elderly vulnerable residents .
Leading on further, though, I wonder if the mortality of the second wave is actually the true measure of the virulence of this strain of coronavirus and if it is then the economy , career and education destruction carried out by panic stricken politicians is out of proportion to the hazard.
Interesting reply, thank you. Certainly with every flu or cold I have ever come across the ideal is to catch it late when it is petering out – get the immunity but don’t suffer. Your analysis is fully in line with my similar review of the figures. There is an evolutionary pressure on the virus to become less dangerous, it does best when the people who catch it keep walking around being as healthy as possible.
As I said, it will be very, very interesting to see how the deaths go in France and Spain over the next few weeks. Summer doesn’t explain it, there are too many very hot countries where aircon is unusual that are suffering badly, e.g. Brasil.
It looks to me that the first wave in Australia never got in full gear, so the second wave will be Australia’s actual season.
Another possibility could be that on and off HCQ+Z could have had an impact. The Trump Derangement Syndrome has caused many poor decisions.
A third factor may be diminished or overloaded immune defense for whatever reason(s).
In any case, Australia is interesting and a country to keep an eye on.
The second wave in Australia got into the nursing homes in Victoria, that’s likely a large part of the reason for the apparently high death rates.
It’s also winter here, so lower Vitamin D levels may also be playing a part.
Mikewaite; maybe because the Australian second wave was during winter whereas the other countries you mention are in the Northern hemisphere so their second wave was during the summer. This after all is like a virulent flu and flu is mainly a winter disease.
All those show “covid” deaths which is not a valid measurement IMHO. I know it’s all we got but total/excess deaths show nothing like a second wave. A “ripple” on the way out yes but not a wave.
In the USA it peaked in April and has been downhill since with a minor 2 week rise that ended the start of August and it’s on the way down. The data is incomplete but it is the one stat they have trouble “adjusting”.
Scroll down to the graph.
@ Carl Friis-Hansen “A third factor may be diminished or overloaded immune defense for whatever reason(s).”
We normally come into contact with many viruses and bacteria every day. Our immune system deals with them and, only occasionally, do we become ill. I imagine that, like your heart, your muscles and your brain, regular use is a requirement for the immune system to remain in top condition. I therefore wonder whether social distancing, lockdowns and sheltering in place is actually weakening our immune system so that we become more susceptible to non-covid19 infections.
After many years of never catching a virus more serious than the common cold, I have just recovered from 4 weeks of shingles. I have also heard anecdotally that there has been more shingles around recently than would normally be expected.
When the lockdown is finally completely lifted, will the population suffer more viral diseases than normal ? Will 2020-21 be a bad flu season ? Will covid-19 persist, albeit at a much reduced level ?
a sample of 130 ??? hardly confirms anything … I would suggest the Diamand Princess is a better example of a test … and that doesn’t confirm your suspicion …
and your death curve does say you are near herd immunity …
Not really. Diamond Princess passengers were quarantined once the infection was discovered. The crew continued to circulate and mix on the fishing boat. DP was a much bigger vessel so contact with infected individuals would have taken longer.
a sample of 130 ???
Given that population infection for her immunity is supposed to be around 20%, what do you think the probability of 85% being infected from a sample of 130 is?
There was no effective quarantine on the DP, as the Japanese officials discovered when they went aboard. The ship had invoked its Norovirus protocols which offered no form of quarantine against Covid-19.
The DP passengers were allowed on deck for exercise where they mingled without social distancing or masks. The crew had no concept of red, green and orange zones, except for food – not for themselves. It was a joke. Not really the fault of the ship, no one told them what to do, so they went with established procedures, they lacked the expertise and training to do better.
There was no effective quarantine on the DP,
It was not perfect but it prevented more the virus becoming more widespread. Also plenty of countries have seen seroprevalence levels well in excess of 20%.
Probably spread fast enough on a fishing boat that herd immunity didn’t have a chance to develop until most or all of those were infected. Would have met zero resistance initially.
Maybe around 20% in a typical population keeps it from spreading, but I don’t think that applies to this setting and situation. I mean as an extreme example, if you have 1 infected person in a room of 5, does that imply herd immunity should keep the other 4 people safe? Likely 100% infection. So maybe 130 on a fishing boat gets you 85% infection. But maybe 67 million people spread across the UK, it gets you 20%.
Seroprevalence? You can’t take that to the bank unless you’re foolish.
“ plenty of countries have seen seroprevalence levels well in excess of 20%”
But the cheaper tests for this have predictive values of 50%. If so, they tell us nothing! If they’re higher quality, they may tell us something. You cannot gauge the difference without knowing which tests for seroprevalence are predictive.
Depends what ‘being infected’ means….
herd immunity in a fishing boat… compare to uk…
Does one acquire “temporary” herd immunity when flying in airplanes?
“Odds of catching coronavirus on plane relatively small, study finds
The report is consistent with other research findings, one expert told Fox New
The odds of catching novel coronavirus on an airplane with infected passengers appear to be relatively small, though still possible, according to a new report.”
“Odds of catching coronavirus on plane relatively small, study finds
The report is consistent with other research findings, one expert told Fox New
The odds of catching novel coronavirus on an airplane with infected passengers appear to be relatively small, though still possible, according to a new report.”
Not at all. Hepatitis filtration on planes is excellent. The danger is who sits next to you and what’s in their droplets and micro droplets.
Valve masks are a type of N95 mask that have a one-way valve allowing exhaled air to pass through a small round or square filter disc attached to the front. Some commercially available cloth masks also feature a valve
The purpose of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s universal masking guidelines is to prevent viral transmission from infected individuals to people around them. Exhaled air passes unfiltered into the environment, taking potential coronavirus droplets with it and defeating the mask’s one important purpose — protecting those around you.
Few (none?) recommend the use of valved masks to prevent the transmission from infected.
My favorite meme today:
You keep saying that me not wearing a mask is killing YOU. It’s been months. How much longer will it take?
On the other hand, having a valve means that you are less likely to re-infect yourself with every breath. So the masks recommended for suppressing transmission actually make a small infection of the disease worse for the wearer. The Deputy Chief Medical Officer of the UK said as much last March.
Don’t expect anyone to say the same at the moment. It is not politically correct….
Bingo, and now most skewl districts around the nation are going to force children to wear masks for 7 hours a day while at school. Sneezing, coughing, and drooling on a piece of cotton on their face while the 2020/21 influenza season gets going, what a brilliant idea.
How many times do I need to call these people The Death Cult of Zero Worship before everyone catches on that it’s not a joke?
And if/when infections spike, they’ll say we shouldn’t have opened schools and will scream to close them again.
Just what do you mean by “re-infect yourself?” Are you suggesting that one can get well by just breathing a lot and expelling viruses?
If you are infected you are shedding the virus. If you are shedding 25% of that virus onto a piece of cotton you have on your face, some of that virus is going to go right back into nose, mouth, throat, and lungs when you inhale. If you have a current infection in your upper respiratory tract, wearing a mask increases the risk that you will then develop a lower respiratory tract infection where the real damage is done.
An assertion with zero evidence to back it up, which is contradicted by experience over many decades, and just plain common sense.
Probably hopeless, Clyde.
For anyone who is still beholden to actual evidence, a new paper was just released.
Studying HCQ in people who were already taking it, and looking for any sign of prophylaxis.
It sounds like the authors expected to find a benefit, but they could not:
Hydroxychloroquin(sic) ineffective for COVID-19
prophylaxis in lupus and rheumatoid arthritis
And not one mention of zinc. I wonder if they ever have used an epoxy cement.
And there are studies to the contrary. HCQ significantly improves viability.
Why would there be a mention of zinc?
i thought it was well known that zinc can reduce the ability of RNA type viruses to replicate themselves…. and is therefore recommended to be taken along with HCQ to increase the effectiveness of HCQ regarding the prevention or treatment of early onset covid infections?
Anyone who bothered to read the report will see that it is an observational study, looking at people who were taking HCQ prior to the pandemic.
As for “well known”, so is CO2 caused global warming.
I would say a more apt description is to say it is “strongly believed” by some people.
So far, that has never caused anything to morph into the truth.
It is necessary to have an exceptionally fine tuned sense of selective attention to believe at this pint in time that it is even remotely possible that HCQ will turn out to have any in vivo anti viral activity against this or any other virus.
“Associate Professor, Department of Population & Quantitative Health Sciences, School of Medicine
Vice Chair for Education
Dr. Mendel E. Singer plays a significant role in the department leading the development and promotion of graduate programs, which have grown considerably under his direction. In addition to his oversight and teaching responsibilities, his own methods research focuses on new approaches to interpreting diagnostic/lab tests, analysis of electronic health records and cost-effectiveness analysis. His research has focused on the medical areas of opioid overdose, hepatitis C and sexual assault. He also has been active in building native capacity for determining the most cost-effective use of limited resources for health care in developing nations.”
Not at all a virologist or immunologist. Same is true for the coauthors. They have no idea what they are doing.
I swear what is happening is unqualified people are publishing studies based on what Trump has said and not what the science has said.
No journal should be publishing this trash. A journal should know that when we say Hydroxychlorquine (HCQ) to fight cronoviruses what what is actually being discussed is a protocol of HCQ, zinc, and Z-pac.
2010 A landmark study is published in PLOS
“Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture”
So in vitro zinc is a potent antiviral for coronavirus. Problem is that is in vitro. In vivo the cell wall is largely impermeable to zinc. So taking Zinc wont have any significant affect on the virus because it cant enter the cell to any significant amount.
So what is needed to get over that in vivo barier? You need a zinc inopher. HCQ is a zing inophere that makes the cell permeable to zinc.
“Chloroquine Is a Zinc Ionophore”
Regardless of what Trump may have said, it is a cocktail just like the aids cocktail. Zinc alone does not work. HCQ alone does not work. During the aids epidemic AZT alone did not work but AZT was part of the first cocktail that did work.
Science: “belief in the ignorance of experts” — Richard Feynman
And there was a man who knew whereof he spoke!
Of course these masks are useless, there are gaps all over the place.
Anyone who has worn one and gone out to do the grocery shopping or whatever little freedom of movement we have left, finds very quickly that warm, moist air starts pushing out everywhere around the sides of the mask. And even though this is happening the wearer is in a state of discomfort experiencing increased temperature and oxygen starvation through reinhaling CO2.
In short, the masks are useless.
But the authorities are mandating them because, since they foolishly invested in the fear campaign, they have to be seen to be doing something to keep people onside.
Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia August 19, 2020 at 4:29 am
A… moist air starts pushing out everywhere around the sides of the mask. And even though this is happening the wearer is in a state of discomfort experiencing increased temperature and oxygen starvation through reinhaling CO2.
Air will pass through mask and if badly fitted round the sides. Masks do little to suppress the transmission of virus – either way. Their sole purpose is to reduce the spread of the air expelled from your mouth and nose. Some viruses may get stuck to masks and may reduce your virus load but certainly not many.
It has been proven by many people that o2 saturation is totally unaffected (buy an oximeter and try it for yourself) Also Co2 cannot build up unless you have a massive airspace behind the mask that physics.
And of course healthcare people wear them continuously and do not keel over
Where is your proof of your statement?
healthcare people only wear them continuosly is a controlled envirnonment where extra air flow is pumped in to offest the reduce O2 intake … OSHA standards …
and what physics are you thinking around C02 buildup ??? … of course it builds up and you rebreath it …
Cannot see where it says that O2 levels are increased to allow for use of masks.
Provide enough ventilation in the surgical suite to keep the room concentration of waste anesthetic gases below the applicable occupational exposure levels. The ventilation design and specifications should meet the most current American Institute of Architect’s Guidelines for Design and Construction of Health Care Facilities.
Healthcare people wear masks:
1 – for short periods
2 – but change them often
3 – and do not wear them while they are ill.
The problem with strapping a mask around your face is that it soon becomes contaminated with your breath. This is a problem IF you have a respiratory illness starting, because it will concentrate the virus load in your body, and turn a minor illness into a severe one.
Yes, there are negative effects and these are not being addressed. I think we do need to push back at the inanity.
You said, “… because it will concentrate the virus load in your body, and turn a minor illness into a severe one.” You have some strange ideas! Do you have any evidence to support your claim?
I have heard of operations lasting several hours. I don’t imagine that the surgeon or nurses leave the operating room every 20 minutes to change masks!
All aside from the fact that CO2 concentration has to get extreme relative to the open atmosphere to have any measurable effect. It couldn’t get anywhere near that in a mask that isn’t completely sealed to the person. At that point you either need piped in O2 or you are a quick goner.
If, as the video says, based on evidence and testing, that virus particles and micro drops easily pass through even n95 rated masks, how much trouble would orders of magnitude smaller air molecules have?
Regardless, in order to avoid conflict, I started wearing a mask in stores. This easily becomes uncomfortable on hot days and it sometimes seems difficult to breath. I have had to breath more deeply and faster to avoid feeling faint and unsteady. I don’t know the reason but a little higher CO2 concentration, if that actually occurs, hardly seems likely to be responsible.
oxygen starvation through reinhaling CO2
How large is a CO2 molecule?
How large are the gaps between fibres in a mask?
How many molecules of CO2 can pass through the caps between the mask fibres?
Answer those questions and you will see why hypoxia is not caused by wearing a mask
wow … you are silly … you can do the experiment yourself … put your hand 6 inches in front of your face and exhale softly (i.e. like when breathing …) you’ll feel it on you hand … now do the same with a sugical mask on … you won’t feel it … the airflow is restricted … i.e. alot of your exhaled gases remain … not all some will pass thru the mask due to the pressure difference … but plenty of them will remain … to be rebreathed in …
fear makes people grasp at nonsense …
you don’t wear a mask 6″ in front of your face
now place your hand over your mouth and nose and exhale softly i.e. like when breathing (if you can’t feel it, you’re already dead)
you’re hand has more chance of stopping exhaled CO2 than a mask.
fear does make people grasp at nonsense
The Dark Lord August 19, 2020 at 6:19 am
now do the same with a sugical mask on … you won’t feel it … the airflow is restricted … i.e. alot of your exhaled gases remain … not all some will pass thru the mask due to the pressure difference … but plenty of them will remain … to be rebreathed in …
You are having me on aren’t you?
The mask prevents you blowing a gust of infected wind over long distance by spreading the are of the exhalation and therefore the speed is reduced (same volume greater cross section). The lack of “feel ” is proof of function!
Now i guess if the air temperature was the same as the exhaled CO2 (no thermals causing co2 to rise/fall) and you breathed in very quickly (no time for the motion of the warm gas to mix by natural molecular motion rms speed of co2 at 27°C is 13m/s) and there was no wind and you were not moving and you did not turn your head then there may be more CO2 than normal in the air you breathe.
It is said that if you wear that mask until the end of the century, the temperature inside the mask might rise from 2 to 20 deg… that might even affect sea levels.
Good luck to all….
The main problem is restriction because as you indicate the masks cannot filter out CO2. There may be some physiological pH effect but it’s probably not significant.
I’m in reasonably good shape but wearing a mask climbing a two or three flights of stairs, I definitely get winded. Without a mask I could go 10 stories without breaking a sweat.
Saw a guy out alone in a small boat fishing with a mask on the other day – don’t think he was wearing his life jacket. He is doing what our health broadcasts say he ought to be. On the ferries you have to possess a mask in case of emergency muster. These seems like a lot of people with what we used to call ‘room temperature IQ’ before conversion to centigrade.
Your claim strikes me as being similar to claiming that a bucket with a small hole is useless for bailing a boat. It may be less efficient (depending on the size of the hole) but it is still better than using only one’s hands. One isn’t going to be infected by a single virus. Therefore, anything that reduces the number of viruses being expelled or inhaled will reduce the probability of being infected. “Perfection is the enemy of good.”
If waves coming over the sides of the boat are also filling the boat, then the bucket with holes in it cannot match the volume of those waves. If the bucket gets filled by that volume, then it can no longer function to dip from the bottom of the boat.
Virus aerosols are emitted somewhat through pores and somewhat around the edges, and who knows what happens exactly to droplets and aerosols inside the mask after they hit the fibers and pores? Does continued breathing serve to break up a large droplet, push it through a pore, provide a channel for the tiny viral particle to slide through and catch a ride with the next available bit of floating moisture? Do the large droplets clog up the pores and force the smaller particles out the sides of the mask, while accumulating more infectious doses inside the mask, which then get pulverized to add to the infectious dose of exiting air?
” One isn’t going to be infected by a single virus.”
So you believe the research quoted in the video is fake?
Putting an N95 mask [or several] in an Instant Pot [without water, for an hour, insulated by a towel] decontaminates it: study
Last year’s hot kitchen appliance is trendy again — this time, for being a virus killer. Read in New York Post: https://apple.news/AvEzGav9KQp-xvtzRaROGQQ
She said she takes 10,000 IU per day vitamin D.
Too much. She’ll have to pee every 15 minutes.
I’ve read you can get 10,000 IU of vitamin D from 30 minutes in summer sunlight.
btw, her talk was longer than 15 minutes. Do you think she was wearing a nappy?
Good one. Lectern puddles not allowed.
“Lectern puddles not allowed.”
No problem. Everyone seems to call them podiums anyway.
“Do you think she was wearing a nappy?”
icisil, I was under the impression the Vit D forms in the living skin (from the sunlight) and then gradually up-taken by the blood over time.
There is absolutely no physical problem with taking Vit. D supplement of 10,000.
The change in the US population’s Vit D status is the explanation for the drop in the covid death rate, in the US.
The recommended daily Vit. D supplement to fight covid is 5,000 UI/day in a paper published by the lead Vit D researchers in the US based on 10 years of research.
The proportion with breast cancer was 78% lower for >60 ng/ml vs <20 ng/ml (P = 0.02). Third, multivariate Cox regression revealed that women with 25(OH)D concentrations 60 ng/ml had an 80% lower risk of breast cancer than women with concentrations <20 ng/ml (HR = 0.20, P = 0.03), adjusting for age, BMI, smoking status, calcium supplement intake, and study of origin.
The VItamin D testing for breast cancer and calcium absorption (80% reduction in the incidence of breast cancer for those people who has a Vit D 25(OH)D blood serum level that is greater than 60 ng/ml.
There has never been an side effect noted in any of the Vit. D studies. Zero side effects. Zero side effects and a 19 times less chance of dying from covid.
Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study
Vitamin D Insufficient Patients 12.55 times more likely to die, blood serum 25(OH)D level from 21 to 29 ng/ml
Vitamin D Deficient Patients 19.12 times more likely to die, Vitamin D blood serum level less than 20 ng/ml
Vitamin D ‘normal’ for this study is 25(0H)D above 30 ng/ml.
Dr Merritt gets a couple of points wrong.
– HCQ presumably works as an antiviral by blocking/inhibiting acidification of the lysosome, not “by acidifying the lysosome” as she said.
– her description of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) of viral infections in amplifying macrophage/monocyte infection was technically incorrect by the mechanism she described. But Substantively correct though.
She is spot-on correct about masks and their lack of effectiveness. They are ineffective to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in prolonged contact, closed spaced settings between wearers where one is infected and shedding virus. The clinical community has known for 20+ years with influenza that surgical style masks are not effective at meaningfully lowering transmission of these airborne respiratory viruses. If you put 20 uninfected in room for a sustained period with and without masks, and one infected shedding virus, you would probably get 15 +/-3 infected without masks wearing, and 12 +/-3 infected with masks. That difference is statistically indistinguishable given all the factors that would also subtly vary like age, health status, etc.
As for the Moderna mRNA SARS-2 vaccine and also the DNA SARS-2 vaccine in trials, there is no way in hell I’d take either vaccine. Those vaccines will almost assuredly k1ll SOME small % of people when they go on to actually contract the virus and become infected. Possibly by ADE, but more likely IMO from a non-protective Th2 asthma-like immunopathology response when some people then contract the actual virus in the community setting.
Otherwise a good talk.
Yeah, good talk.
Masks basically cannot provide protection from “prolonged” contact. They do prevent someone from blowing their breath directly into one’s face. From this aspect, in effect they increase social distance/contact over short periods. They also help reduce the spread of droplets.
People would be surprised to learn that some CV tests produce false positive rates up to 5% and and even higher if the tests are not performed correctly. CDC reports on this and are clearly fearing mongering.
S. Korea btw is exhibiting a new wave of outbreaks as are many other countries attesting to the difficulty of suppression. Deaths are still basically non-existent there.
So moronielles believe — according to survey data — that Covid19 is 10,000 times more deadly than it is? If so, the future is doomed. They are too innumerate to rule the world.
The example she gave about certain SARS vaccines becoming fatal when the recipient encounters yet another viral infection seemed a bit unclear.
Did she say, or rather is it true that some/all of those persons/animals had problems like that ?
Does this means that those who get the SARS-COv2 vaccine may have major problems when the next coronavirus comes down the pike ?
This is a convoluted research path and I’m not equipped to explain it precisely. But I can offer some notes,
In 1966 a disaster trial of infants and a new RSV vaccine candidate. It had produced great antibodies but mysteriously the infants who contracted actual RSV experienced a deadly and accelerated form of disease. At the time blame was placed on formalin/formaldehyde used to render virus inactive. This explanation stood for many years. Then in 2008 new insight suggesting not formalin as cause but “affinity maturation could be a cause of the failure. Affinity maturation is a phenomenon in which antibodies become highly specialized in attacking specific pathogens.”
The lay explanation is when determining a vaccine candidate is promising simple presence of antigens are looked for. But not all antigens are created equal (T and B).
Then in 2012 a SARS-CoV vaccine test went awry in the same manner, it was a “challenge” trial where vaccine antibodies are observed but THEN they are deliberately infected with wild virus. When Lee shows slide of belly-up rodents she is referring to this I think. Animals died and the researchers brilliantly noted parallel with 1966 disaster. They end with a warning not to conside human trials yet.
“t animals given an alum adjuvanted SARS vaccine and subsequently challenged with SARS-CoV exhibited an immunopathologic lung reaction reminiscent of that described for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in infants and in animal models given RSV vaccine and challenged naturally (infants) or artificially (animals) with RSV [32,33]. We and others described a similar immunopathologic reaction in mice vaccinated with a SARS-CoV vaccine and subsequently challenged with SARS-CoV [18,20,21,28]. It has been proposed that the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV is the antigen to which the immunopathologic reaction is directed [18,21]. Thus, concern for proceeding to humans with candidate SARS-CoV vaccines emerged from these various observations.”
Then in 2013 barely a year later, a further revisit of the 1966 disaster might be the key to ending the mystery,
“These findings reveal an unexpected mechanism of vaccine-induced disease augmentation and indicate that selective chemoattraction of Tregs into diseased sites may offer a novel approach to the modulation of tissue-specific inflammation.”
MedCram in a recent episode describes how T cell immunity may explain the “natural” immunity observed to ‘new’ COVID, T-cells aquired from previous similar coronavirus infection.
Actually I reread it and it reminded me of a potential problem I dreamed up when I hear that it might take multiple doses.
I wondered if the second dose wasn’t the same as (or properly matched with) the original vaccine, there could be a bad reaction.
She also got Dr. Zelenko’s residence wrong—it’s not in the NY City borough of Queens, but in a small town north of NY City.
I reject as false Bill Gates’ views about Covid-19. It was a relatively mild flu that was ~only dangerous for the elderly and infirm – there was no need for the full-Gulag lockdown of children and the workforce – that lockdown was a needless and destructive over-reaction that cost many trillions of dollars and harmed billions of lives,
I published that conclusion on 21March2020 and it is now accepted as correct by competent medical personnel. Covid deaths in the USA peaked on 16April2020 and in Canada on 1May2020. We do NOT need a vaccine – the Covid flu will die out like every other flu in human history, when herd immunity is reached, All the lockdown did was extend the time before herd immunity is reached, probably increasing the death toll and increasing the risk that Covid will extend into next year’s flu season. Sweden did it mostly right – most other countries including the USA, UK and Canada did it mostly wrong.
The only remaining question is: Was the full-Gulag lockdown a costly error or a deliberate scam?
Just how much damage is done to those that recover?
Keep it up Alan – you’ll convince more Cletus and Karens and other village idiots to enjoy their covid parties. It will only improve the intelligence of the US – Evolution in Action.
‘Tis but the flu.”
There is no FDA-approved MRNA treatment for anything. Unless something happens that makes my risk from Covid higher than the risk of taking an MRNA vaccine, I won’t be among the first 4 or 5 billion to seek treatment.
At the end, Dr. Merrit said, “when the humidity went up, the transmission, the RO value, went down. So… unfortunately, that’s true.” Unfortunately? What am I missing here? You’re going to have a bad hair day if the RO value goes down?
Makes you wonder why Miami’s rate is so high…..
When the heat goes up, the people are inside. And if talking in Spanish, saying twice as many words and much faster than if in English. From the tip of Texas…
More people going indoors, especially night clubs, using AC having more and longer contact. More testing which finds more mild cases in addition to false positives.
I have a child at UNC that is being booted out of the dorm as teaching has just been moved to on-line. It’s my understanding that some of the cases there exhibited little or no symptoms among the clusters.
Condolences. I too have son and girlfriend ‘sheltering’ with us since April. Grocery bill up x6. On the other hand, perhaps its good to have quality time with one’s adult children, and they are getting an off-season rental as of Oct 1.
1. Miami is very densely populated
2. There is a large population of elderly persons
3. Many New Yorkers fled to So. Florida when NY locked down tight. They may or may not have assisted in the spread.
4. Lots of multi generational households
5. Its filthy
The Dade and Broward Counties are where all the New Yorkers fled to at the beginning of this.
They brought the virus with them before quarantines were in place.
Wrong! Tens of thousands fled NYC AFTER a Shelter In Place was issued. Generalissimo Cuomo called the Wuhan Virus the “European Virus” – because it came to NYC from Italy, or something.
Using that “logic” the rest of the country should call the Wuhan Virus The New York Virus.
Liberalism is a mental disorder.
In what way was Tom’s comment wrong?
“They brought the virus with them BEFORE quarantines were in place.”
There was a graphic circulating back in late March that showed how many cell phones from NYC had fanned out across these fruited plains in the 48 hours after Generalissimo Cuomo issued a Shelter In Place order for NYC. It was appalling to see – tens of thousands fled the city, taking the virus with them EVERYWHERE.
“We now have enough data to feel pretty confident that New York was the primary gateway for the rest of the country,” said Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health.
It would be EXTREMELY helpful for this post to include something about the DDP, such as who the heck is the DDP and something about the speaker. Who the heck is Dr. Merritt?
Doctors for Disaster Preparedness. (A simple search of DDP + a little extra to give context – for instance “DDP 38th Annual Meeting, August 16, 2020”)
Calling a positive PCR test a case of covid is like calling a positive result on a test that can detect a negative thought towards one’s spouse a case of domestic violence.
Come on man, are you on crack or something? I’d be arrested more than if I were black under Kamala Harris’s jurisdiction. /s
In France, and probably everywhere, it isn’t what most think of PCR testing as in DNA comparisons.
There is just ONE primer used in large scale population testing. It could match short remains of the virus. It doesn’t prove the person is infectious.
I thought DDP ‘Doctors for Disaster Preparedness’ was akin to Médecins Sans Frontières but it is another group dressing in white coats (behind a name that suggests knowledge and authority) to validate their views like “America’s Frontline Doctors”
Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (DDP) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization located in Tucson, Arizona. The group is closely affiliated with the American Association of Physicians and Surgeons, a politically conservative nonprofit association advocating numerous discredited hypotheses including AIDS denialism. It is run by Arizona physician Jane Orient.
Oh dear the power of social media.
According to Bloomberg News, the group was “founded to promote civil defense during the Cold War”, and has been “transformed over the years into a forum” on “fringe-science topics” such as global warming denial. DDP was described by The Guardian as a “fringe political group” and as a “truly bizarre lobby group”. It promotes the denialist view that man-made global warming is not real or not an important concern.
Presentations at the 2015 meeting included a theory about links between John F. Kennedy’s assassination and the deaths of his brother and son; a prediction that the aim of Obamacare was to cause the collapse the U.S. health-care system and a recommendation “that the audience start stockpiling medications and finding doctors who would work for cash”; a sympathetic discussion of the theory that low doses of radiation are “beneficial to human health”; and an argument that the HIV virus does not cause AIDS, but instead was invented by government scientists who wanted to cover up other health risks of “the lifestyle of homosexual men.” The meeting was covered by conservative website Breitbart, attended by George Gilder, and the conservative Heartland Institute sent its science director to present his plan to abolish the Environmental Protection Agency.
Many of the ideas of discreditation you present have been “discredited”. Your bias and logical fallacy precede you as you rely on “authority” to make your point. And the number or prominence of authorities supporting an idea is no more value than a consensus.
The Guardian as an authority? How does Sponge Bob’s laugh go?
VicV August 19, 2020 at 6:14 am
can you link to proof that masks cause low o2 saturation or co2 poisoning?
Can you explain why the rest of the world does not believe in HCQ treatment when they have no horse in the race (eg fauci) they are not paid by others than usa.
Anti trump – unlikely as it would be simple to provide the HCQ regimen but more expensive to do the vaccine – although trump is a word of derision in places other than us.
Can you prove “the rest of the world does not believe in HCQ treatment”?
It doesn’t matter what I would say. If you’re not objective enough to approach these things as a scientific study looking to prove the OPPOSITE of what you prejudicially believe, you’re hopelessly lost to the propaganda.
Ghalfrunt, or Gag Halfrunt, is the brain specialist that orders the destruction of the Earth in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy because, if the question of the meaning of life is answered, it would put him out of business as a psychiatrist.
Sounds about right.
Your quotes sound like they came straight out of Wikipedia.
icisil August 19, 2020 at 6:28 am
i thought that was obvious
And I thought my ridicule was obvious.
Anything hated by the Guardian cannot be ALL bad. Looking at the accusations, I see that you treat not believing in the Climate Change Disaster hypothesis as a crank position, the abolition of the EPA similarly, and a discussion on radiation limits as obviously wrong, in spite of the well-attested radiation hormesis effect, shown in numerous experiments…
Why is this?
Still waiting for the reply. Not holding my breath, but still waiting…
Most likely just another drive-by trolling.
Bueller… Bueller… Bueller…
Is it the PCR test that is producing 30% false positives that I have been reading about?
In some places, lab techs were apparently not adequately trained and it might even be worse than that.
Covid, a very appropriate name for the “du jour” version of what Operation Mockingbird was supposed to be back then.
I heard from a medical professional the other day that digital certificates are going to be part of the program once a vaccine is produced. They aren’t going to force anyone to get one but your access to society might be limited if you don’t.
OK, is anyone going to come out and complain about HCQ at this point?
We had big arguments over that in previous WUWT threads.
What is new information is that HCQ may be effective against regular FLU. That is hopeful news, and certainly motivation not to vaccinate. Wow.
I would venture that any time there are a large number of studies that get conflicting results there is probably a large element of statistical variation. That may explain why half of all medical studies can’t be replicated. In any event, it is not acceptable to just rely on the studies that get the results you want to believe in. That is called “Cherry Picking.”
Besides the couple dozen drugs that have shown some efficacy for COVID-19 in the lab, recently there have been claims that asthma drugs and birth control pills also seem to have value. When there are so many drugs showing apparent efficacy, one should also consider the possibility of a strong placebo effect.
The one picks the good cherries, the other picks the bad ones.
Is there any difference ?
You asked if there is any difference. Yes, there is. The claim has been made that HCQ is useful for curing COVID-19. Any time a hypothesis is presented, the presenter has the obligation to prove it (or at least disprove the null-hypothesis). Indeed, Sagan suggested that there is a direct relationship between the strength of the proof and the ‘novelty’ of the claim. That is, the natural condition for science is to be skeptical of claims and demand strong proof. If there is evidence both supporting and denying a claim, then it isn’t strong evidence, and the resolution should remain open until adequate proof is provided. In over a century there has NEVER been an experiment that has shown that Einstein’s theory is wrong.
What is interesting about the HCQ efficacy claim is that the basic dose recommended is the same as for other purposes. It should strike one that the optimal dose for different diseases is unlikely. That is, suppressing an autoimmune response is different from inhibiting the reproduction of a virus.
It has been claimed that a reasonable explanation for the efficacy of HCQ is that it acts as an “ionophore” for zinc. However, I haven’t seen any studies that demonstrate the relationship between the HCQ dose and the optimal amount of zinc necessary to be effective. Proponents of the zinc requirement just adopt what some physicians claim they have used. Again, how likely is it that the optimal zinc dose was arrived at immediately without any trials to characterize the ‘amplifying’ effect of HCQ (if any)? It might be that large doses of zinc alone are effective. Where are the studies?
I’m suspicious that if it had been Pelosi who recommended HCQ, instead of Trump, many here would not be demonstrating the same kind of religious fervor for a treatment of questionable value.
If Nancy Pelosi had recommended HCQ the media would have lauded her as the savior of mankind, immediately started a campaign for her Nobel Prize Nomination, and HCQ would be available at every mini-mart in America in a handy-dandy, Pez-like, dispenser.
The campaign against HCQ has little to do with the efficacy of the drug. If aspirin were touted by Trump as good for relieving pain, inflammation and fever it would be roundly attacked by the media as a deadly poison and the 24/7 news cycle would be full of aspirin scare stories for days on end.
“the natural condition for science is to be skeptical of claims and demand strong proof. If there is evidence both supporting and denying a claim, then it isn’t strong evidence, and the resolution should remain open until adequate proof is provided”
I couldn’t agree more.
I’m 67, and have never had a flu shot. Others can take the Covid-19 vaccine, and who knows, maybe it will help, but I don’t believe I will. I prefer preventive approaches like boosting your immune system with Vitamin D3 & K(1 &2), C, and Zinc, plenty of time outdoors (as much as possible), walking, gardening, or whatever, and if I were to get the disease which I think is highly unlikely, then treat with the HCQ “cocktail”. I frankly don’t have much respect for, or faith in the medical establishment. Doctors used to actually care about their patients. Now, they are just part of a giant, money-making machine.
Bruce Cobb August 19, 2020 at 7:29 am
… Doctors used to actually care about their patients. Now, they are just part of a giant, money-making machine
Health care workers in a society where “free” health care is available to all do not get paid more money for using specific treatments. Surgeons in the NHS do not operate on someone just to bring in more money. They are fully employed and salaried.
They can of course do private work to boost their wealth.
Reading comprehension much? I didn’t say that the doctors themselves benefit financially, although they get the “benefit” of being part of a giant industry.
A lot of doctors are obviously into medicine for the money and prestige (at least in the US), but this disease has taught me that more than a few doctors care very much for their patients and serve their best interests. I can’t imagine having to do what they do constrained by a system that couldn’t care less about patients’ well-being. Here’s interesting insight into the matter, particularly the part about ventilators (at least to me it is).
COVID-19: Physicians in Shackles
You are being illogical. You said, “I frankly don’t have much respect for, or faith in the medical establishment.” It is members of the medical establishment that have recommended the HCQ cocktail that you are willing to take. Think about it!
refleckt about “establishment” 😀
Good advice — for yourself! The “establishment” isn’t a monolith. Only a minority of practicing physicians, although free to use HCQ under the rules of compassionate care, have chosen to do so. My physician laughed when I asked him if he was using it for himself or his family. He is a small practitioner, not a member of the evil Big Pharma.
I think, you don’t understand, what establishment means.
A doctor prescribing HCQ isn’t part of the establishment, just in contrast, at least in USA.
If your family history indicates vulnerability to Alzheimer’s disease, you might want to change that! Because last spring a large study launched to assess whether flu shots at a mature age worsened later risk of Alzheimer’s instead discovered a very significant diminished disease effect.
IIRC, taking one seasonal flu vaccine shot gave about 17% protection against later developing Alzheimer’s. And taking two seasonal vaccine shots upped the effect to around 30%. (A single pneumonia vaccine shot yielded similar protective effects, but both types of vaccines together did not produce greater effects.)
Again, if I recall correctly, these were vaccines gotten for people in their mid or later 50s through middle 60s. And the Alzheimer’s disease was looked for developing in later decades in life.
Shocking if something so simple might help that much. Good news if it stands further study.
Let me rephrase that
Health care industry in a society where “free” health care is available to all do not get more money for using specific treatments. hospitals in the NHS do not operate on someone just to bring in more money. They are funded by all.
They can of course do private work to boost their wealth.
I keep hearing and reading of claims that a number of countries are using Hydroxychloroquine but no source is provided for this information. I’m not sure I consider newspaper articles as reliable sources.
Of you did not learn it on a blog, it is a lie.
See https://www.hcqtrial.com/ and https://c19study.com/ (FWIW)
Real world studies of masks prove their ineffectiveness. One study showed cloth masks with no filter was worse than no mask at all because it dispersed the exhale into smaller droplets and increased the area covered. Aside from pure cloth the effectiveness was more impacted by fit than filter and masks loaded with virons are also worse than no mask at all. All the studies I’ve seen assumed exhaled droplets could contain virus as they are too small to practically count without going to great lengths.
Real world studies
IMO the only ones that really matter.
May 5 issue of Emerging Infectious Disease Journal had an article that cited several of those.
Every literate person who understands the English language should watch Dr. Merritt’s talk. I especially loved where she showed that lawmakers and government employees are exempted from a bunch of the mask-wearing mandates across the US. Masks and other restrictions are for the unwashed masses, not for those who make the laws that the rest of us have to live by.
COVID-19 Treatment – Analysis of 78 global studies showing high effectiveness for early treatment
Inflection points precede mitigation mandates (e.g. masks, social distancing). The single cause of excess deaths is Planned Parent and cross-contamination in medical facilities. In vitro and observation studies have shown that early treatment with the HCQ cocktail, which has a well-established and low risk profile, is effective to mitigate viral viability (Planned Pathogen) and disease progression.
I am gonna repost these herein case anyone missed them.
Accidently posted this on another thread just now:
A couple of papers, one new, one I had not seen previously:
Hydroxychloroquin ineffective for COVID-19
prophylaxis in lupus and rheumatoid arthritis
Observational study identifies drug that improves survival in sickest COVID-19 patients
At the very least, some Zn serum level data should have been included. None was apparently as zinc is not mentioned a single time in the article.
These are people who were already taking it.
The people who have been asserted to be immune, in one of the first of the many CQ and HCQ memes…those who have lupus and/or RA.
They are not.
Thanks. Here’s more detail:
Observational study identifies drug that improves survival in sickest COVID-19 patients
HMH doctors assessed off-label use of tocilizumab, an anti-inflammatory monoclonal antibody, in first seven weeks of pandemic via RE-COV-RY (Real world Evidence COVID-19 RegistrY)
August 18, 2020 – Edison, NJ — Researchers at Hackensack Meridian Health, New Jersey’s largest and most comprehensive health network, have utilized its statewide observational database of more than 5,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients to show that a drug normally used in rheumatoid arthritis and cancer treatments, tocilizumab, improves hospital survival in critically-ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).
In the observational study 210 patients received tocilizumab, and the other 420 did not. … The findings showed a statistically-significant decrease in hospital-related deaths among the patients who received the tocilizumab: a roughly 36 percent decrease in hospital-related mortality among the ICU patients who received the drug, as compared with patients in the ICU who didn’t receive it. The data from the outcomes was adjusted to account for multiple factors, including comorbidities, and was assessed using statistical survival models.
Importantly, it appeared that higher levels of a blood test marker of inflammation, C-reactive protein, could predict which ICU patients might benefit most from the tocilizumab therapy, potentially allowing doctors to tailor therapy to those most in need.
The findings were published in The Lancet Rheumatology on Aug. 14, and Hackensack Meridian Health researchers have updated the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and other national leaders of the findings to potentially accelerate improved outcomes.
Don’t I recall BMJ and Lancet playing politics against Bush some 16 years ago, during a different election year? Sure I do, and back then the offence was tossing out Saddam Hussein and replacing him with purple fingers.
Tells me I should take this journal seriously if I hate the President, right? That’s all a critical thinker needs to know. Replication crisis champs indeed!
Also this one:
“The finding was reported in an observational study by the Mayo Clinic involving 35,322 COVID-19 patients between April and July across hundreds of hospitals.”
Effect of Convalescent Plasma on Mortality among
Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: Initial Three Month Experience
Early Safety Indicators of COVID-19 Convalescent
Plasma in 5,000 Patients
And another interesting and potentially useful finding:
New Study Results: Rothman Index Identifies COVID-19 Patients with Higher Risk of Mortality, Improving the Opportunity to Save Lives
COVID-19 patients with hypoxia respond positively to a treatment, study shows
“Covid-19 patients with hypoxia respond positively to icatibant treatment, Radboud university medical center researchers wrote in JAMA Network Open. These findings have led to a follow-up study at ten Dutch hospitals into a drug that may be even more effective. The current study has been funded by ZonMw.”
And a small but “impressive result:
“Seattle-based Omeros said its narsoplimab, when administered to six COVID-19 patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome who initially required mechanical ventilation, led to recovery, survival and discharge from the hospital.”
Not a COVID study, but may have some bearing:
Study adds weight to link between COVID-19 and vitamin D
19-Aug-2020 By Nikki Hancocks
A new cohort study involving 9940 men and women has added to the mounting research to indicate vitamin D supplementation may reduce the seriousness of COVID-19 infections.
And a bunch of other reports and studies:
Flushing Urinals Can Spread COVID-19, Study Finds
“Bruen specializes in a form of treatment known as Extra Corporal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) which is an advanced therapy intended for patients with severe heart problems or luing disease where the use of a ventilator is no longer a viable option for life support. Bruen says a new drug trial could prevent the need for a ventilator in the most extreme COVID-19 cases.”
FDA greenlights expansion of COVID-19 study to VCU Medical Center after positive data
CytoDyn announces “positive” results from mid-stage COVID-19 study
“CytoDyn reports, what it says, are “clinically significant” results from its Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating leronlimab in COVID-19 patients with mild-to-moderate symptoms.”
Purdue’s Avrio Health L.P. Reports Preliminary In Vitro Test Results on Study Assessing Betadine Gargle Against COVID-19
Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/4774061#ixzz6Vc4I604d
“In this study, results showed a 99.9 percent reduction of SARS-CoV-2 viral load starting at 15 seconds and at all subsequent time points in the study (30 seconds, 60 seconds and 5 minutes).”
Another study looking at dexamethasone:
Mortality in COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome and corticosteroids use: a systematic review and meta-analysis
There are a lot more, but I’ll stop there;
Thanks—I’ve copied all those comments to my computer.
Ivermectin is being used in Latin America, and was mentioned in this July JoNova thread (and is being pooh-poohed by the medical establishment):
“Ivermectin, like hydroxychloroquine is a kind of superdrug — in the sense of being in worldwide mass use. Some 3.7 billion doses are estimated to have been given since its approval. It has been called the Japanese Wonder Drug. It’s the farm drench, a head lice treatment, and works against worm, mites and ticks too.
“It was estimated to reduce viral loads in vitro massively but most people didn’t think it would work at lower safe doses. Then Bangladeshi doctors claim it was “astounding”. Last month US tests suggest that it reduced deaths by 40%. (Rajter)
“These are all every preliminary results. More studies are promised for Ivermectin. Especially in Peru, where a grassroots movement of Doctors has ensured it will be used.
“A US clinical trial of the drug ivermectin found that it reduced the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients by 40%.”
And another: The Key to Defeating COVID-19 Already Exists. We Need to Start Using It | Opinion
I am referring, of course, to the medication hydroxychloroquine. When this inexpensive oral medication is given very early in the course of illness, before the virus has had time to multiply beyond control, it has shown to be highly effective, especially when given in combination with the antibiotics azithromycin or doxycycline and the nutritional supplement zinc.
Dr. Didier Raoult has now treated 1000 coronavirus patient with 99.3% success rate
“At day-6 of the study, 100% of patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin combination were cured of the virus compared with 57.1% in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine only, and 12.5% in the control group.
As you can see Azithromycin added to hydroxychloroquine was significantly more efficient for virus elimination.
This study shows efficient clearing of viral load in only three to six days, for most patients. Even by day three of the treatment, a significant improvement was observed. Compare this to a study from China which shows the average duration of viral shedding in patients suffering from COVID-19 in China was 20 days with longest duration being 37 days.”
I think the best action to take is to use the HCQ treatment to rid the body of the Wuhan virus as soon after infection is detected. The Wuhan virus is doing damage to the body as long as it is in there, and the HCQ treatment appears to cut the residence time by up to a couple of weeks, and that has to be benficial to the person infected.
It is claimed that the Wuhan virus could be in a person’s body for up to 14 days before the person starts feeling the effects of the virus.
I assume the 20-day, and 37-day duration of the Wuhan virus in the body mentioned above is calculated from the time the infection is noticed.
We don’t really know the level of damage the Wuhan virus does in its initial phase, but I think it would be better to cut the duration down to six days rather than allow the virus to continue along its normal course for 20 to 37 days. And it appears to me that the HCQ treatment can do that job.
The above comment about HCQ by itself being 57 percent effective against the Wuhan virus might have application to the study that has just been published about lupus and arthritis patients, who take HCQ as a treatment for their particular disease, not showing particular immunity to catching the Wuhan virus.
The bottom line is Dr. Raoult has shown that the HCQ treatment is effective at eliminating the Wuhan virus from the body within about a week of starting treatment. That should be our goal.
The complications from the Wuhan virus are numerous and seem to be persistent even after people have gotten over the initial infection and these detrimental health effects may last for years or a lifetime. This is what has happened to people who were infected with the SARS-COV-1 virus, and it looks like the SARS-COV-2 virus (Wuhan) is following the same destructive path.
So we don’t want to leave that Wuhan virus in our bodies if we have a way to get it out, and the HCQ treatment will do that job, imo. An early, safe treatment.
I take the whole discussion of masks not being effective with a grain of salt. I’ve designed off-gas treatment systems for radioactive processes using HEPA filters as the final stage. I purchased and installed a classical scattering aerosol spectrometer to measure particle size distribution and loading in the off-gas stream. If COVID-19 is transferred via aerosols, those aerosols can be quite large compared to the diameter of an individual coronavirus. As such, a mask with a .3 micron limit might be acceptable for an aerosol particle, but not an individual virus. To even have the discussion, one needs to know the primary mode of transfer (aerosol or individual virus). One would think there is a good understanding of aerosol size produced by breathing, talking, and coughing.
Austrailian spread tied to non mask wearing staff at the regis hotel quarantine.
In Korea we have our 3rd day with over 100 cases
100% of new cases are directly tied to groups of people meeting without masks.
How do we know? we track them down! We get the names. The location. the video.
Its not rocket science. it’s detective work
Interesting to see WWG1WGA at end of video.
PERRY SMITH August 20, 2020 at 4:29 am
Interesting to see WWG1WGA at end of video.
Had to look that up – a really wacko conspiracy theory – explains the rest of the lies in the video!
At its heart, QAnon is a wide-ranging, unfounded conspiracy theory that says that President Trump is waging a secret war against elite Satan-worshipping paedophiles in government, business and the media.
QAnon believers have speculated that this fight will lead to a day of reckoning where prominent people such as former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will be arrested and executed.
And in spite of what the lame stream propaganda says, we have Sweden that kept its primary schools, bars and restaurant open, no orders to shut down businesses and no masks. Sweden is now down to very few daily deaths and a plateauing of the “cases”. They took the true science based approach but were unable to move quickly enough in protecting the very elderly in their care homes.
Sweden avoided the hysteria driven panic, took the science based approach and have suffered only a 4% decrease in GDP and is very unlikely to see the follow effects (e.g. extreme poverty and suicides) that many other nations will see in the coming years.
How’s Sweden doing compared w/ Norway & Finland?
DEATHS per million cumulative https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
That depends entirely on what metrics you think are the most important. What has been the economic hit to Norway and Finland?
In my public health classes the concept of “above all else, do no harm” was consistently stressed by my professors. The media and bureaucrat driven response to this particular Chinese virus broke many of the rules established over decades (centuries too) of experience with many epidemics. The result is that many people have been and will continue to be harmed by the hysterical unscientific government response. The resulting poverty, starvation and suicides are likely to dwarf the death by the virus over the next 5 years: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/05/05/world-risks-famines-of-biblical-proportions-from-pandemic-un.html
We now know without a doubt that this is primarily a disease of the old and sick. Check out the “heat map” map at the end of this paper from Denmark: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.20111823v1.full.pdf
You can see from the CDC data the importance of advancing age as a risk factor, as well as all the co-morbidities: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html
Make sure you look the Display By “Weekly Rate” and then look at the other page linked on the site:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html that has the comorbidities.
We know that the average age of death is around 80 years of age. That fact is not discussed much but you can see it in places like Minnesota: https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/covidweekly34.pdf
Regarding long-term immunity of the individual, it is also now clear the T-cells are playing a huge role in protecting many if not the majority of people exposed to the virus: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4 That is why so many people are asymptomatic or only have mild disease. Their healthy innate immune system easily handles this virus.
Like any viral disease, there will be some unlucky individuals who survive and will suffer greatly from this disease. That is unfortunate but if this virus behaves like other that number will be a small percentage of those who got very sick. So far, it is behaving like its other relatives in the coronavirus family from an epidemiological perspective.
And yes, masks have limited if any protective value outside of a healthcare setting: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372
sweden cracked down where it matters most.
Its pretty fucking simple if you look at all the cluster data.
An observation I have in reading everything I have time to read including comments, is the political side is determining what an individual believes. Of myself and wife’s circle of friends, this has also been noted. Those with a conservative bent on politics and likely Trump supporters, don’t believe masks do anything, HCQ and zinc can be helpful used early in symptoms, and total cases are inflated to scare us.
The democrat side are for the most part the opposite in their views. When will we know anything is real?
There is certainly at least a very strong overlap between politics and positions on these subjects. I think that, at a minimum, politics plays a role in where you start, and what you look at.
To take your two examples: HCQ was a non-issue until Trump said something and people started taking sides. Before that, there were doctors prescribing it, doctors not prescribing it, some noting results, etc.. After he said something, you had governors and beuraucrats inserting themselves in the process. Studies are not all in agreement, but from what I’ve seen it appears that early use may be helpful, and late use is pretty pointless. For some reason, it seems that the potential harm of this well-known and long-prescribed drug has been rather overexaggerated.
On this, my personal position is: The use of HCQ for treatment of Covid-19 should NOT be dictated by government, but should be a decision made between a doctor and patient based on the specific situation for that individual. HCQ has a LONG history. For people without contraindications, HCQ in the quantities prescribed is essentially harmless. If there is a modest chance of it helping, and a minimal risk, why not?
As for masks, there is certainly a political reaction to the mandates at the very least, and that initial reaction likely informs the individual’s take on things after that. As for efficacy, personally I have seen that the real-world studies (refer to “Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings” for a few to start) indicate no statistical reduction in transmission from wearing masks. The only studies I have seen so far saying they work have been either statistical modeling, or tests of material permeability, which don’t account for many of the other factors people are raising here.
Again, my personal take: while it’s possible masks might help a little, I have not seen sufficient evidence (in the form of real-world studies) to be convinced. I think that mask mandates have the potential for making things worse, based on my anecdotal observations. Prior to our state’s mask mandate, people observed distancing and hand sanitization suggestions much more rigorously. But since the mandate was passed, people seem to see the mask as a panacea, and don’t pay as much attention to the other things anymore. They stand around in close groups, masks pulled partly down, they touch and adjust the mask, etc. The lab studies don’t account for people’s behavior.
When will we know anything is real?
Going back to your first observation: the facts have been too obfuscated by politics. I doubt we’ll know much of anything for sure for quite a long time, if ever.
One thing I’ve definitely noticed: it’s nearly impossible to get someone to even consider the alternative point of view. Seems to be a theme.
Giving it some more thought, and actually addressing your observation (which my previous comment did not do):
I think it has to do with trust in government. Stereotypes, perhaps, but Democrats seem to place more trust in government institutions in general (except police and military), while Republicans tend to be more distrustful of government in general (again, except police and military). So when the government says “wearing a mask is good”, a Democrat is predisposed to accept that, while the Republican is predisposed to not.
Well, well, well. Look at this.
Johnson, Lee, Cruz Call for Explanation into FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization Decisions
Posted By: Larry Fuss August 20, 2020
WASHINGTON — U.S. Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) sent a letter Tuesday requesting information regarding the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) decisions regarding hydrochloroquine (HCQ) and chloroquine (CQ) to treat COVID patients.”
I’ll be interested to hear the FDA explanation. I may need some HCQ some day.
Here we go! 🙂
FDA approves 1st fully transparent surgical mask
I think something like this would help a lot. People need to look at other people’s faces in order to interact properly.
These young, healthy COVID-19 survivors face long-term issues
By Gabrielle Fonrouge
August 20, 2020
“Lief added, “A lot of patients who survived COVID, whether they were hospitalized or not, have impairments that are going to impact them for weeks or months or for the rest of their lives.”
“Survival doesn’t mean intact and doesn’t mean you are the person you were before. If you used to be a marathoner and now you can’t walk up the two flights of stairs to your apartment, that’s survival,” the doctor went on.
“So survival is really one outcome, but it is not the only important one.”
For Calabrese, who’s also receiving care at Mount Sinai, the long term symptoms and the uncertainty over her health at times felt worse than dying.
“That’s a very strong statement, but quality of life is something that’s so important to so many people,” she said.
“The chance of catching it and actually dying shouldn’t be the fear. It should be the fear that you catch this virus and then you have to live with the consequences… These symptoms are what you should be afraid of and how life altering they are.”
Sobering. Or should be. Dismissing the seriousness of the Wuhan virus is “whistling past the graveyard”.
The HCQ treatment could be a solution to a lot of this damage if given early enough in the infection.
Somewhere, someone is showering with a mask on. Odds on it’s a liberal democrat.