Cold weather kills more people than hot weather because… global warming.

Guest “No schist Sherlock” by David Middleton

Cold-weather accounts for almost all temperature-related deaths
August 18, 2020

With the number of extreme weather days rising around the globe in recent years due to global warming, it is no surprise that there has been an upward trend in hospital visits and admissions for injuries caused by high heat over the last several years. But cold temperatures are responsible for almost all temperature-related deaths, according to a new study published in the journal  Environmental Research.

According to the new study by researchers at the University of Illinois Chicago, patients who died because of cold temperatures were responsible for 94% of temperature-related deaths, even though hypothermia was responsible for only 27% of temperature-related hospital visits.

“With the decrease in the number of cold weather days over the last several decades, we still see more deaths due to cold weather as opposed to hot weather,” said Lee Friedman, associate professor of environmental and occupational health sciences in the UIC School of Public Health and corresponding author on the paper. “This is in part due to the body’s poorer ability to thermoregulate once hypothermia sets in, as well as since there are fewer cold weather days overall, people don’t have time to acclimate to cold when those rarer cold days do occur.”

[…]

University of Illinois Chicago

Did he just blame global warming for the cold weather-related deaths?

“With the decrease in the number of cold weather days over the last several decades… people don’t have time to acclimate to cold when those rarer cold days do occur.”

Yes he did!

It was even in the conclusion of their paper:

Conclusions
While climate change is increasing the number of extreme heat days, it may also impact cold adaptation resulting in more serious adverse health outcomes when severe cold weather events do occur.

Science Direct

Did it ever occur to these academics that green energy polices might be the primary reason that cold weather kills 16 times as many people as hot weather?

Willful efforts to make energy more expensive and less reliable (see California) increases energy poverty and kills more people than more people than cCoal and Cecil B. DeMille… Combined!

Cold weather-related deaths have been rampant in Illinois for years.

Illinois consistent nationwide for cold-related deaths
January 29, 2018

CHICAGO (AP) — Illinois was consistently in the top five states nationwide for cold-related deaths per year from 1999 until 2016, according to a federal agency’s report.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says Illinois also ranked 15th nationally on average during the same time period for cold deaths per 100,000 people.

Cold weather has taken the lives of hundreds of Illinois residents, the Chicago Tribune reported. The Illinois Department of Public Health says 593 people died from exposure to excessive natural cold or hypothermia between 2008 and 2016. The highest yearly total occurred when the polar vortex hit in January 2014 and claimed the lives of 110 people.

[…]

AP

This may come as a shock to modern academics, but waaaaayyyy back in 2019, it was well-known that making home heating more expensive kills people.

Lower Heating Prices Prevent Winter Deaths, Particularly from Cardiovascular and Respiratory Causes

Death rates are known to be highest in winter months in areas with cold weather. In Inexpensive Heating Reduces Winter Mortality (NBER Working Paper No. 25681), researchers Janjala ChirakijjaSeema Jayachandran and Pinchuan Ong assess whether the cost of heating contributes to this “excess winter mortality.” High heating costs can present households with difficult tradeoffs: set their homes to uncomfortably low temperatures, or reduce their spending in other areas, such as food and medical care. Either type of response can potentially increase health risks.

[…]

The estimates imply that the lowered price of heating due to shale natural gas production and other factors in the late 2000s averted 11,000 winter deaths per year in areas that relied on this heating energy source.

[…]

The National Bureau of Economic Research

There you have it! Frac’ing saves lives!

Reference

Friedman, Lee S., Chibuzor Abasilim, Rosalinda Fitts, Michelle Wueste. Clinical outcomes of temperature related injuries treated in the hospital setting, 2011–2018Environmental Research, 2020; 189: 109882 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109882

92 thoughts on “Cold weather kills more people than hot weather because… global warming.

    • Shhh. Don’t tell them, but the number of cold days have not gone down and extreme weather events have not gone up.
      Shhh. We do not want to upset the little angels who have a first grade view of the world.

      • Thank God! on the basis of his conclusions we could have seen the cold related death rate escalate as the cold days reduced further until finally we have a year with no cold days and everyone would die from the total inability to adapt. We would have to refrigerate vast spaces to put people until they’re almost dead before releasing them.

        • ”we could have seen the cold related death rate escalate as the cold days reduced further until finally we have a year with no cold days and everyone would die from the total inability to adapt.”

          Ha ha ha ha

        • And it all makes sense because the Air Con generation think that it should be 22deg C all day, everyday. Anything away from that is an extreme

      • Mathematical models predict that in a stable climate, the number of hot and cold records should be equal, and new records occur less frequently over time.

        In 2018, 430 stations worldwide saw all-time high temperatures and 40 saw all-time lows

        • UHI and other contamination only affects readings one direction. How many of the 430 are actual readings? Where are the sites?

          • What about the year before and the year after?
            Was there anything unusual about 2018?

            As usual, griff grabs onto unrelated factoids the way a drowning man grabs onto a life preserver.

        • There has never been a stable climate, not since the earth started out gassing an atmosphere.

          The world is still warming up from the deadly conditions found during the Little Ice Age.

          One year, there were more hot records than cold records? Really, you are basing your nonsense on just one year’s worth of data?

          Surely even you aren’t stupid enough to try that stunt.

          • It seems to me that they won’t be happy unless we end up in a new LIA, and they would blame that on global warming. (Actually I recall reading here some years ago that they have already done “studies” to show that warming could cause glaciation, so…)

        • There is no such thing as a “stable” climate, moron. Climate changes constantly, always has and always will. Humans are not causing it and can not stop it. What an idiot you prove yourself to be every time you vomit out such stupidity.

        • I have this die with faces numbered 1 through 6. If it’s a “fair” die, each face *should* come up an equal number of times after a roll.

          I roll six time and get 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 6. Not an equal distribution! Can I conclude 1) that this die is NOT “fair;” 2) that my sample size was too small; or 3) something else? Let’s go with NOT “fair.”

          I offer to try another six rolls . . . just to be sure. Some object . . . “the science is settled, “they say. I try another six anyway, same die, this time each face comes up exactly once. Can I conclude that the die IS “fair,” after all?

  1. Good grief, David! I’m sitting in my office, here in Mendoza, Argentina, the heart of wine production in Argentina, and looking outside I see snow accumulating on palm trees! Failure to adapt? OF JFC it’s cold? (the “F” stands for Fracking) Friedman needs to get out of his office a little more, like into the real world.

  2. When exactly was the event horizon that we all passed through that science reverted back to the dark ages of tiptoeing around a supreme dogma authority with ludicrous messaging in order to get published and stay employed? We are not so different from the trials of Copernicus after all and it may well take as long to get exonerated by those same pious political authorities.

    • Zwar immer so.
      We tend to look down on our ancestors as hopeless rubes and hayseeds, falling for manias and false beliefs. When we do this we ignore our own fallibility to the same. How many modern folks believe our automobiles are warming the air, or that wearing face masks are a talisman against contagion?
      Soon we will be back to burning books in the street. Oooops we’re there.

      • Mumbles,
        Mostly only Holy Bibles; the one book that might help the useful idiots over come their self-imposed victimhood and start enjoying life!

    • Copernicus, contrary to the popular world view, wasn’t bullied for his outrageous theories.

      He was shut down because he was foolish enough to make the clown character in one of his books a clear parody of the pope. In that era ‘non fiction’ text was not written in the style we are now familiar with, but more in the style of a conversation between various characters. Normally one would be wise and the others would feed him questions. Copernicus made his clown character a bit too like the pope and fell out of favour. Big time. Don’t mock the Pope on 16th Century social media and expect to hash tag it away on short notice.

      The church of the time were actually very pro-science on the grounds that God had Created and the more we understood about what he had created the closer we would be to God.

      If anything we are in a much worse position. In the 16th Century there was at least encouragement for the exchange of ideas. Here in the 21st ideas are political tools and manipulated, not to control the information as such, but to control the public.

        • Yep. And Simplicio was uncomfortably like two of Galileo’s arch opponents, not the Pope. Galileo was very devout and had largely a good and even fond relationship with the relatively new Pope Urban. Galileo simply refused to “believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use.” Recommended reading for all interested: Galileo’s Daughter, by Dava Sobel. It goes into great detail the personal and political aspects leading up to Galileo’s trial. But we owe much more to Galileo than just the iconic conflict episode.

    • The answer to 1+1 is a matter of opinion, and we might reach different, yet equally valid, conclusions about that answer. Objective science has taken a powder.

      • And old but fantastic joke
        A guy asks a mathematician, an economist and a statistician “what is 2+2”?
        The mathematician answers 4
        The economist says its somewhere between 3 and 5.
        The statistician says, “what do you want it to be”.

        Which is what most climate science is

        All apologies to McIntyre, need more Honest statisticians

  3. David,
    Thanks for the best laugh of the morning so far! Maybe this Sherlock should do a study on electrical black outs in Calizuela causing unnecessary deaths; I’m fairly sure he would explain them as another effect of CAGW, not at all due to governmental incompetence and unreliable wind and solar crashing the grid!

    Any excess heat and CO2 being produced is gobbled up by my tomato plants; don’t you just love global warming, I mean summertime! Frac on, brother!

  4. That “study” is absolutely stupid. That is because our bodies have a normal temperature around 98 F, which does not change because there are more days with a high above say 70 F than there used to be. An exposure to a temperature of 40 F or below causes heart attacks and that is true whether the average daily temperature is in the 50s, the 70s or the 90s.

    • Yeah this retard seems to have completely lost how the human body works and he is treating us like reptiles.

    • Not really. So you are perfectly comfortable in a room or even outdoors at 98.6 deg F? Yeah, right!

      Acclimatization is a real thing. I’ve lived in Florida for 31 years, was raised in the upper midwest – I am far more sensitive to cold now than when I lived up north .. being older also tends to make one more sensitive to cold temps. Which is why one hears so often the refrain from elderly northerners who claim they can’t take the cold winters any longer, and so move south to Florida or elsewhere in the sun belt.

      In any event, you are missing the forest for the trees. The headline in the data is that vastly more humans die from exposure to extreme cold than from extreme heat. That is because the human body does a pretty good job of cooling itself through sweating, but does not do a good job of warming itself, which generally requires externalities to survive (warm clothes, room heat, etc.)

      • Lived in New Hampshire for about five years when I was MUCH younger. I could handle the cold still (I think) – but trying to find the car in the middle of the winter – nope. I wouldn’t have any recollection of which snowdrift was mine.

    • I don’t know that his conclusion that fewer cold days (assuming, for the sake of argument that there are fewer cold days) leads to more people failing to adapt to temperatures outside of what they keep in their homes, but failing to adapt does lead to greater difficulty dealing with either hotter or colder temperatures on the few occasions one is forced to face them. Adaption probably depends on more than I know but it is greatly helped by regular exposure PLUS physical activity great enough to engage the body’s mechanisms.

      I think the real trend is probably more people tending to avoid going out into either hot or cold weather unless it can’t be avoided. Thus their body never makes its seasonal changes. Then suddenly something requires them to be out in the weather, or the power goes out and lets the outside temperatures in, and they can’t handle it. This is not unlike the situation of the couch potato who suddenly must shovel snow out of the driveway after a long period of no physical activity and then needs to be rushed to the hospital.

  5. Estimated excess deaths in UK in winter over the last 5 years-168,000
    Number related to cold-36,000
    Number due to fuel poverty-17,000.
    These researchers are off their heads.The cost of “renewables” is measured in lives as well as money.

  6. If it just saves one life, we should mandate fracking … Oh, wait! That logic only applies when for the MSM narrative supports it. Otherwise it perfectly acceptable to kill millions and impoverish billions of people.

  7. people don’t have time to acclimate to cold when those rarer cold days do occur.”

    Evidence-less assertion that even if qualitatively true, the magnitude of which is unknown.

    If anything, the media and its climate porn propaganda campaign are making People believing the the lies of global warming and being put at risk by subconsciously acting on the bad information of Climate Change alarmism. Thus there is probably ample blame to lay on the junk climate science from quacks like Lee Friedman which is a factor in causing people (and politicians) to make bad decisions.

    Wrong information is worse than no information is eliciting the outright wrong or maladaptive behaviors. We see this in every aspect of where science and public policy interact. This is why scientists need to stay the Hell out advocacy in public policy debates, unless they want to discard open-mindedness necessary for science become politicians.

    • The other point I forgot to make before I posted the comment, was concerning his use of the word “acclimate”.

      If I were listening to this academic in a seminar, the first question I’d pose to him (I’d stop him in his presentation and make clarify) is his acclimation claim based on a behavioral acclimation or physiological acclimation.

      The behavioral acclimation is the one where wrong or bad information leads to a maladaptive behavioral response. In most mammals evolved to seasonal adaptations we see physiological adaptation to colder environments as measured in fat-layer accumulation, presence of “brown fat”, thickening of fur or coats, and migration to warmer climates. Indeed we shave clear evidence of many tens of thousands of humans seasonally migrating to Arizona, South Texas, and Florida every winter in a behavioral adaptation response, especially with increasing age.

      And it is obvious the entire climate scam is being run with the goal of disruptive behavioral adaptation changes in Western societies. If they want people to believe the global warming scam, then there will be inevitable behavioral changes that come with that indoctrination.

      • Joel,
        So the study, by inference, is saying that snow birds are endangered now! Oh, the horrors!
        I guess I better get a little travel trailer and spend some time around Tombstone playing with my six guns and my replica 1866 Yellow Boy. I hear they have hummingbirds there year round so I better take some feeders and sugar along with a bunch of ammo! Maybe that will slow down my winter fat accumulation!

  8. It never ceases to amaze me what people will believe – wearing a sweater in summer and believing it is the ‘hottest year yet’.

    n.b. Found a beach of very rough chunks of something that looks to be between basalt and rhiolite with masses of granitite intrusions. Not easy to walk on. Geology rocks!

    • hardened tar into asphalt from an oil spill?? Asphalt of course is the heaviest fraction left from the crude oil refining process.

      • Actually de-asphalted rock is the even less valuable residuum left after usable asphalt is separated…

  9. It rain’d all night the day I left,
    The weather it was dry,
    The sun so hot I froze to death,
    Susanna, don’t you cry.

    – Stephen Foster, climate Scientist.

  10. I’m continually amazed by the ingenuity of progressive environmentalists to invent things that might happen, which are bad, as a result of the presumed effects of anthropogenic global warming. It should be obvious from the large number of possible catastrophes that no good whatsoever can possibly come from a warming environment, despite the fact that David Attenborough has claimed that the 3% of the Earth’s surface classified as tropical has 50% of the species of life.

  11. Do let NPR know.

    The poor sods apparently believe the exact opposite (isn’t it amazing? Can you believe it? NPR, that paragon of truth and purveyor of objective, non-partisan, objective fact).

    by Nathan Rott (NPR)
    https://www.npr.org/2020/08/15/902781690/california-issues-first-rolling-blackouts-since-2001-as-heat-wave-bakes-western-
    “…Extreme heat is a silent killer, responsible for more deaths than any other natural disaster. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that heat kills more than 600 people in the U.S. every year.

    However, a recent study by researchers at Boston University and the University of British Columbia in Canada suggests the number may actually be far higher — possibly as high as 5,600 annually — with even moderate heat waves increasing the number of deaths…”

    • How many people die from suicide after listening to NPR. It’s one of the reasons I avoid it.

    • They aren’t the only one recently who has been touting that heat is the deadly one.

      I think this is a nice touch, though: “…researchers at Boston University and the University of British Columbia in Canada…”

      Nathan thinks it is safe to say that listeners know where Boston U is located but is concerned enough about his audience that he has to specific that BC is “in Canada.”

  12. You can die of hypothermia in 70 F if there is wind and you don’t have sufficient clothing to stay warm. While adapting to temperature is good it will not save you under all circumstances. Every one knows that.

    One thing for sure people can be taxed to death.

  13. I wonder if they considered that people are becoming more stupid and are failing to dress adequately for cold weather? That windchill will really getcha if you’re naked.

    • In general, hot days are in summer, cold in winter, and autumn is to short to realise, that the weather becomes colder ? Or will they make believe we are falling from one extreme in the other from one to the next day ?
      What’s about people back from holidays in winter, say from a hot region in Africa or South America, back to Sweden in winter, dying on the gangway ?

    • I wonder if they considered that people are becoming more stupid and are failing to dress adequately for cold weather?

      Have you seen some of the cloths some young people wear these days? They fail to even keep their knickers covered. That’s if they’re even wearing knickers, which some of them don’t. 😉

    • Without warmth and shelter there aren’t many places around the world where humans can survive all year round.

  14. Sigh. I live in Las Vegas. This week has been constant commentary during the weather reports and forecasts about new heat records. While I don’t doubt the reporting of the temperatures, so much is implied by what is not reported. The fact that the valley is an urban heat island and that the increase in concrete, cement, asphalt and steel retains heat through the cooler nights, resulting in higher temperatures the next day. There is zero reporting of temperatures away from the heat island and whether those temperatures have shown the seem increases.

  15. And, once again, thank you, David, for a post that was well documented and fun to read.

    Stay safe and healthy, all.

    Regards,
    Bob

  16. I wonder how many of these people who die of cold or heat are knocking on deaths door to begin with. Just like Covid, most of the ones that die we’re going to die very soon anyhow.

  17. ‘When the ice age came, things were not perfect. There was no food, no wood and the water was all frozen. But that did not kill people. what really made things worse..people had got used to being warm’
    -Stig of the Dump. 1 million BC

  18. An item in the local rag about research at our local university says:

    Using a controlled setting to stimulate the impact of winter storms on birds, the first-of-its-kind study found that sparrows show increased stress when exposed to more frequent and severe winter storms – which are a a growing threat amid global climate change.

    I guess the only way to get funding for important sparrow research is to create imaginary threats to vulnerable sparrows. And here I thought our grandchildren would not know what snow is.

  19. Hi David
    Here is something you might like to look at:
    Supernova triggers for end-Devonian extinctions
    Abstract: ” Recent evidence indicates that the final extinction event may have coincided with a dramatic drop in stratospheric ozone, possibly due to a global temperature rise. Here we study an alternative possible cause for the postulated ozone drop: a nearby supernova explosion that could inflict damage by accelerating cosmic rays that can deliver ionizing radiation for up to ∼100 ky”
    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/08/17/2013774117

  20. Our bodies react to cold by increasing both what is called “cold-inducing RNA binding protein” (CIRP) & “RNA-binding motif protein 3” (Rbm3). This is a cold response which limits potential cellular damage.

    Cold exposure elevates levels of circulating catechol-amines (adrenalin/noradrenaline). Their action downstream (via HSE & HSF1) results in more of the “heat shock protein 72” (HSP72) being made, which is a dynamic of nervous system cold tolerance.

    The Original Post implies human cold exposure is less & thus people more vulnerable.In order to become adapted to conserving body heat this may be true in the following context; experimentally it took exposure to 18*C for 1.5 hours 5 days/week for 8 weeks to induce cold reactive body heat conservation.

    Salient features of having actual adaptation to cold include: increases lipo-lysis, decreased glyco-lysis, reduced heart rate, lower catechol-amines, slower breathing rate (reduced Oxygen uptake & reduced CO2 ventilated/minute) & among cellular actors increased expression levels of Sirtuins 1-4, CIRP, Rbm3, HSP72 & HSP90alpha.

    • gringojay,

      These are technical processes,

      triggered and controlled

      depending on the composition of the messenger substances adrenaline, serotonin and steroids.
      __________________________________________

      After all it’s the operators decision for another spring.

  21. Ah, yea, cold weather has always killed more humans than warm. Who are these idiots just now figuring this fact out?

  22. It MAY also impact cold adaption… There’s that word again. Non science, not worth wasting time reading. Cretins.

  23. It never occurs to this sort of academic that green energy polices might be the reason that cold weather kills 16 times as many people as hot weather, because they know that this is not a matter for scientific reasoning but is part of the Core Belief of the Global Warming-Climate Change Religion. They also know that they will be handsomely rewarded by the Church of Global Warming-Climate Change for their Testimony of Faith.

  24. How is it that “climate change” formerly known as “global warming” which so far accounts for perhaps 1 degree of warming, can also account for heat waves where temperatures are 10 or 20 degrees warmer than normal. And how can “climate change” have caused the extreme heat waves of the 1930s which were far worse than anything in recent decades. Just asking.

    • DHR -Do refer to NOAA\NASA temperature graphs “adjustments” of the globe.Then consider that up to 40% of the temperatures are supplied by models!

  25. These idiots should stay all day long in freezer rooms so that they can adapt to global warming.

  26. Though I’m a trucker I once was an SF medic that wrote the lesson plan and taught heat and cold injuries at the Special Operations Medical Course. To wrote that lessons plan while at Ft. Sam Houston, TX and thus had access to some of the top experts in the Army and Air Force to refer to on most of the subject matter.

    I have been in stage II of hypothermia twice. Pretty tough not to get too cold at some time or other when your serving in an SF unit that specializes in cold weather and high Alpine operations. And yet in 8 1/2 year on those teams I never once had a team member suffer a cold injury worse than stage 1 hypothermia or chilblains.

    The hypothalamus has primary control of body temperature. In a healthy adult by far the greatest potential for an injury that effects the function of the hypothalamus permanently is heat stroke. The other levels of heat injury such as heat cramps and heat exhaustion do not cause long term disfunction of the hypothalamus.

    Hypothermia, when one gets to stage III can result in temporary disfunction of the hypothalamus. This why people in that stage will sometimes shed their warm clothes. But people that recover from even severe cases of hypothermia rarely suffer any long term effect on their ability to thermo-regulate.

    This line: ““This is in part due to the body’s poorer ability to thermoregulate once hypothermia sets in, as well as since there are fewer cold weather days overall, people don’t have time to acclimate to cold when those rarer cold days do occur.” is Bull hockey IMO. “This is in part due to the body’s poorer ability to thermoregulate once hypothermia sets in, as well as since there are fewer cold weather days overall, people don’t have time to acclimate to cold when those rarer cold days do occur.” Acclimated or not, when your cold, your cold, and your going to get warm if you can! It is the failure to get warm that results in the injury!

  27. I live in Edmonton, Alberta, and every year we get about 100 days of what most people would call bitter cold. I’m not sure if anyone ever dies from the cold unless they fall prey to some series of unfortunate circumstances where they are trapped in it.

    When I was young I worked winters surveying oil and gas pipelines in rural areas. We carried newspapers, cigarette lighters and axes, and we would stop every so often and build fires. You have strategies for adapting to cold weather, is what I’m getting at here. Nobody I knew ever had frostbite, and we would sometimes work all day at minus 30 degrees Celsius.

    Meanwhile, check out the daily temperatures in Phoenix. where the temperature seems to exceed 37 degrees Celsius (that’s 100 degrees Fahrenheit) most days during the summer. I doubt if very many residents of Phoenix die of the heat because they know how to live and work in it.

  28. They have taken a simple truth, that cold weather has a much higher rate of “attributable deaths” than hot weather, and even attempted to magnify those “attributable deaths”, and then tried to piggyback “climate change” onto that with the idiotic idea that people are less able to acclimate to the cold now, because it happens less frequently, causing further deaths. “Attributable deaths”, of course can mean just about anything you want it to. This is a similar thing to what is happening with deaths attributed to Covid-19. It all depends on your agenda.
    I suppose we should have come to expect this sort of slop from Warmunists by now, but it still never ceases to amaze how dumb as well as dishonest they are. They make it up as they go.

  29. I have to wonder how much of the increase is from the growth in homeless population? The mentally challenged (both the ill and low IQ) who used to be institutionalized are now roaming the streets and exposed to extreme weather.

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