Claim: Past evidence supports complete loss of Arctic sea-ice by 2035

A new study, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, supports predictions that the Arctic could be free of sea ice by 2035.

BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY

A new study, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, supports predictions that the Arctic could be free of sea ice by 2035.

High temperatures in the Arctic during the last interglacial – the warm period around 127,000 years ago – have puzzled scientists for decades. Now the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre climate model has enabled an international team of researchers to compare Arctic sea ice conditions during the last interglacial with present day. Their findings are important for improving predictions of future sea ice change.

During spring and early summer, shallow pools of water form on the surface of Arctic sea-ice. These ‘melt ponds’ are important for how much sunlight is absorbed by the ice and how much is reflected back into space. The new Hadley Centre model is the UK’s most advanced physical representation of the Earth’s climate and a critical tool for climate research and incorporates sea-ice and melt ponds.

Using the model to look at Arctic sea ice during the last interglacial, the team concludes that the impact of intense springtime sunshine created many melt ponds, which played a crucial role in sea-ice melt. A simulation of the future using the same model indicates that the Arctic may become sea ice-free by 2035.

Joint lead author Dr Maria Vittoria Guarino, Earth System Modeller at British Antarctic Survey (BAS), says:

“High temperatures in the Arctic have puzzled scientists for decades. Unravelling this mystery was technically and scientifically challenging. For the first time, we can begin to see how the Arctic became sea ice-free during the last interglacial. The advances made in climate modelling means that we can create a more accurate simulation of the Earth’s past climate, which, in turn gives us greater confidence in model predictions for the future.”

Dr Louise Sime, the group head of the Palaeoclimate group and joint lead author at BAS, says:

“We know the Arctic is undergoing significant changes as our planet warms. By understanding what happened during Earth’s last warm period we are in a better position to understand what will happen in the future. The prospect of loss of sea-ice by 2035 should really be focussing all our minds on achieving a low-carbon world as soon as humanly feasible.”

Dr David Schroeder and Prof Danny Feltham from the University of Reading, who developed and co-led the implementation of the melt pond scheme in the climate model, say:

“This shows just how important sea-ice processes like melt ponds are in the Arctic, and why it is crucial that they are incorporated into climate models.”

###

The work is funded by NERC, grant number NE/P013279/1 and is part of the TiPES project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme https://www.tipes.dk/

Sea ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss by Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise Sime, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Erica Rosenblum, Mark Ringer, Jeff Ridley, Daniel Feltham, Cecilia Bitz, Eric Steig, Eric Wolff, Julienne Stroeve, Alistair Sellar is published in the journal Nature Climate Change: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0865-2

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August 11, 2020 6:11 am

“Using the model to look at Arctic sea ice during the last interglacial, the team concludes that the impact of intense springtime sunshine created many melt ponds, which played a crucial role in sea-ice melt”

And that it was about 5C warmer in the Eemian should also be taken into account maybe.

https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/21/eemian/

In any case sea ice melt in the current warm period of the Holocene does not appear to be driven by atmospheric temperature.

https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/28/sea-ice-extent-area-1979-2018/

https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/07/precipitous-decline-in-arctic-sea-ice-volume/

MarkW
Reply to  Chaamjamal
August 11, 2020 8:09 am

Most of the alarmists are predicting that kind of warming, or more.
The real world, still fails to heed the models.

M Seward
Reply to  MarkW
August 11, 2020 10:57 am

I prdict that by 2035 the climate alarmist movement will be free of any significant political or scientific support.

Joel Snider
Reply to  M Seward
August 11, 2020 11:00 am

I predict they will be telling the same stories all over again, with movable dates.

Bryan A
Reply to  Joel Snider
August 11, 2020 9:51 pm

Could Be…
Maybe…Maybe not

Robert Wager
Reply to  Joel Snider
August 13, 2020 1:24 pm

You mean like “The Arctic will be ice-free by 2012, er um 2035”

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  MarkW
August 11, 2020 3:09 pm

“The new Hadley Centre model is the UK’s most advanced physical representation of the Earth’s climate”

I hope they haven’t disposed of the runes and chicken guts. They were the most accurate forecasting tools they ever used.

John Tillman
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
August 11, 2020 3:51 pm

I adhere to the pigeon flight school of prognostication.

Dr. Bob
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
August 11, 2020 5:37 pm

Climate Models are not “Physical” representations. They are mathematical constructs that are the product of partial understanding of the climate system and contain numerous assumptions that have not been validated. Calling them a Physical representation is a gross exaggeration of what they actually are.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Dr. Bob
August 11, 2020 7:47 pm

Since climate models aren’t physical anyway, they can’t be a physical representation of anything. They’re a virtual representation, and highly incomplete at that.

M Seward
Reply to  Dr. Bob
August 11, 2020 8:41 pm

Once pon a time, long long ago but on this very planet an 3rd year engineering student class was given the task of choosing something to model and then seek an optimum solution. Being a poor, starving student I decided to model a healthy diet with a view to minimising its cost. My lecturer was not happy with such a non-engineering focus but such is life.

I came up with soy beans and spinach as the cheapest way to supply all the energy and nutrients that the human body needs. So, on the one hand I demonstrated the viability of veganism and simultaneously just what an optimised mathematical modelled world might look like. I did not do a sensitivity study regarding unit pricing or even one which identified the next chepest combinations but hey, thats modelling for you, once you have a result’ ya gotta run with it cos thats what you are being rewarded for. I got a pass and some red ink commentary for my efforts.

Felix
Reply to  Dr. Bob
August 13, 2020 8:33 am

They left out the prefix “meta” when describing their models.

Ask them to fix that, and it’s all good, no?

John Tillman
Reply to  Chaamjamal
August 11, 2020 11:44 am

The reported modeling disagrees with paleoproxy observations from 2017. Of course. And with previous simulations based upon such data:

Arctic Ocean sea ice cover during the penultimate glacial and the last interglacial

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00552-1

Coinciding with global warming, Arctic sea ice has rapidly decreased during the last four decades and climate scenarios suggest that sea ice may completely disappear during summer within the next about 50–100 years. Here we produce Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy records for the penultimate glacial (Marine Isotope Stage 6) and the subsequent last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e). The latter is a time interval when the high latitudes were significantly warmer than today. We document that even under such warmer climate conditions, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Our proxy reconstruction of the last interglacial sea ice cover is supported by climate simulations, although some proxy data/model inconsistencies still exist. During late Marine Isotope Stage 6, polynya-type conditions occurred off the major ice sheets along the northern Barents and East Siberian continental margins, contradicting a giant Marine Isotope Stage 6 ice shelf that covered the entire Arctic Ocean.

The Eemian is variously dated from around 130 to 115 Ka, +/-2.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 4:23 pm

À la recherche d’interglaiares perdus:

MIS 5, Eemian (~130-115 Ka): warmer and longer lasting than the current Holocene.
MIS 7, La Bouchet (~242–230 Ka): two peaks separated by a cool interval, with the first warmer, but less so than the Eemian.
MIS 9, Purfleet (British term) (~337-300 Ka): Less toasty than the Eemian and possibly the Holocene Climatic Maximum.
MIS 11, Hoxnian (British) (~424-374 Ka): Hottest and longest of recent interglacials.
MIS 13, Cromerian (British) (~524-474 Ka): Split into three warm peaks separated by two cooler phases, following a weak glacial.

John Tillman
Reply to  Chaamjamal
August 12, 2020 11:53 am

A 2016 study of sea ice over Fram Strait during the past 2000 years, using actual data:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41063-016-0023-2

LIA ice advance shows up.

David Kamakaris
August 11, 2020 6:12 am

If the Arctic Ocean was ice free 127000 years ago, why are so many so-called climate experts wetting their pants over the possibility of that same event occurring once again.

Reply to  David Kamakaris
August 11, 2020 6:35 am

“David Kamakaris August 11, 2020 at 6:12 am
If the Arctic Ocean was ice free 127000 years ago, why are so many so-called climate experts wetting their pants over the possibility of that same event occurring once again.”

Interesting question by David Kamakaris.

Maybe this whole narrative of fearful impacts of fossil fuels is just a case of shit happens but something that can be used to sell the snake oil of your choice. The Eemian would have surely made for a better snake oil sales opportunity because their WAIS + SLR orgasm had come true back then. The whole of the WAIS had had collapsed with catastrophic sea level rise. The Eemian link is in my prior comment.

Mumbles McGuirck
Reply to  David Kamakaris
August 11, 2020 6:38 am

Good point. There many periods in the past that were warmer than the present. From all indications, life flourished during these periods. So what’s the problem?

Marshall Gill
Reply to  Mumbles McGuirck
August 11, 2020 10:24 am

To the Left, human life is a problem. They do not wish to see it flourish.

John Tillman
Reply to  Scissor
August 11, 2020 4:57 pm

Just kill all the white people. They caused the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions, so must must die, especially the males. Then people can live once again in harmony with nature. All 400 million of them.

Agriculture was invented by Africans and Asians, sex indeterminate, so they too must die. But indigenous Americans also independently developed agriculture, so two more continenets’ worth of people must die. At least the Woke can’t pin agriculture on Europeans.

So basically, everyone has violated Mother Gaia and must die.

max
Reply to  Mumbles McGuirck
August 11, 2020 5:39 pm

Those times will not let them seize control of your life.

Reply to  David Kamakaris
August 11, 2020 6:47 am

Another study
Another model
Another scary climate prediction
Ho hum

Also, 2035 does not matter.

The world will end in 12 years
according to Perfesser Greta.

2020 plus 12 years is 2032.

So who cares what is allegedly
going to happen in 2035 ?

These people have some nerve
calling themselves scientists.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 11, 2020 8:15 am

…. and then there’s the data. Arctic summer sea ice minima started bottoming out around 2007 (an inconvenient Gore effect on steroids). Looks like this year will be no exception:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

The interactivity of this site is really good. Check out 2007 and 2019 traces.

Arctic ice bedwetters do try to save on laundry bills please.

Antarctica is interesting too. When is that sea ice going to disappear? 130,000 years from now?

Scissor
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 11, 2020 2:40 pm

She said that in January of last year, maybe even before that. We only have until 2030 for that failed prediction to come to pass.

griff
Reply to  David Kamakaris
August 11, 2020 7:04 am

The ice free sea of that time was because of the then orbital mechanics. Without that Milankovitchian influence we today see the lowest ice levels since that ice free period. Or observable impact from climate change.

Perhaps you’d like to tell me why an ice free arctic doesn’t have an influence on future climate from that point? (a warming influence)

Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 7:16 am

Griff,

nothing horrible happened then, thus nothing horrible will happen in 15 years.

How come Polar Bears and the Seals they eat are in abundance today, despite low summer sea ice level values?

sendergreen
Reply to  Thomas Pearson
August 11, 2020 1:24 pm

Thomas Pearson says :
———————————

They simply refuse to perish, in spite of the warmist’s fervent hopes.

Scissor
Reply to  sendergreen
August 11, 2020 2:55 pm

Arctic researchers continue to perish there every year, many freezing to death. This is from yesterday.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/leading-swiss-climate-researcher-dies-in-accident/45959190

John Chassin
Reply to  Thomas Pearson
August 11, 2020 2:49 pm

What polar bears?
They became extinct during the Roman warming period.
Then they became extinct again during the Medieval Warming period.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Chassin
August 11, 2020 5:04 pm

They first went extinct during the Eemian, warmer and less icy than any time in the Holocene. Then they died out again during the Holocene Climatic Optimum. Then they were yet again wiped out in the Egyptian and Minoan Warm Periods.

They are bears of great resilience. They re-evolve during every climatic downturn, disappear in the following cyclical warming, only to re-re-evolve in the subsequent cooling.

Hard to die, those ringed seal-eating monsters!

Tom in Florida
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 7:18 am

A warmer climate is better. Do you disagree with that?

Harry Passfield
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 12, 2020 11:57 am

Tom: FWIW: and no-one – nobody on the planet – can tell its inhabitants what the ideal climate should be, or how to achieve it. Thereby lies the scam, and the reason why ‘they’ think it can succeed.

Curious George
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 7:25 am

It sure does. For 127,000 years and counting.

R Taylor
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 8:13 am

Oh griff, you said Milankovitch. Be careful, or you might get trapped into having to explain how CO2 causes orbital irregularities, in addition to its time-traveling control of atmospheric temperature.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 8:13 am

Now that we know the arctic has been ice free in the recent past (geologically speaking), griff now has to try and pretend that why the arctic is ice free matters.

The ice levels are low because the current phase of the AMO/PMO are pumping large amounts of warm water into the arctic.

Loss of sea ice in the arctic means the arctic becomes a much more efficient radiator, pumping huge amounts of heat into space. The claims that the sun hitting the waters will cause the waters to further warm has been refuted many times over. But as always, useful lies will be repeated ad infinitum by those who are being paid to do so.

Graemethecat
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 9:31 am

Griffiepoo,

You’ve been asked many, many times how Polar Bears survived the Holocene Warm Period. Why have you never once given an answer?

BTW, you’re beginning to sound a bit desperate and hysterical, almost as though you know deep down the game is up for your lies.

John Tillman
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 10:08 am

Arctic sea ice was lower than now not just in the Eemian, the previous interglacial, but also during this one, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, 6000, 7000, possibly 8000, 9000 and 10,000 years ago.

Yet again your prediction for Icemageddon this year has been shown wrong, just as in 2013. 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

Scissor
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 2:46 pm

Yes, it’s colder globally now than for most of this interglacial.

David Kamakaris
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 2:30 pm

Griff, let’s assume for the sake of argument that the Arctic will be ice free by 2035. Can you tell me why the 2035 ice free Arctic was caused by anthropogenic CO2 and not whatever natural forcings that caused the Eemian ice free conditions, poorly understood though they may be? I’ll wait.

fred250
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 4:35 pm

Arctic was regularly pretty much Ice Free for most of the first 3/4 of the current interglacial.

Current levels are WAY ABOVE the Holocene norm. !

Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 4:45 pm

Previous predictions said the Arctic would be “ice free” by 2013,, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018. What makes Griff think that 2035 will be right, other than that no one will have to admit it’s also wrong for a while longer?
https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions

fred250
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 5:36 pm

WRONG AGAIN griff.

The LIA was the ANOMALY… thank goodness for the partial recovery !

And which Milankovič cycle caused The Little Ice Age?
The 26,000 year precession (only halfway through)?
The 41,000 year axial tilt (only about halfway through its cycle)?
Or the 10,000 year orbital eccentricity (not expected to finish the current cycle for about 50,000 years)?

Show us all your expertise on the Milankovič cycles… LOL

or did you just read the words somewhere! 😉

Loren C. Wilson
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 6:09 pm

No need to speculate about an ice-free Arctic and its influence on the climate since it isn’t going to happen for a long time. We don’t know why we entered a glacial period nor when it will end.

HotScot
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 2:51 am

griff

Cognitive Dissonance writ large.

commieBob
Reply to  David Kamakaris
August 11, 2020 8:21 am

1 – The word they didn’t use was ‘seasonally’. There will still be ice in the winter.
2 – There is evidence that the arctic has been seasonally ice free during the Holocene.
3 – The polar bears survived previous episodes of a seasonally ice free arctic. Against the expert predictions of people like Dr. Ian Stirling, for whom I actually have a lot of respect, the polar bears are not doomed by a seasonally ice free arctic ocean.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  David Kamakaris
August 11, 2020 12:23 pm

Yeah…just what is it about perpetually frozen wastelands that is supposed to be so vital for human beings and life in general?
Now, when the polar regions went from being filled with life to all but sterile…now that was a catastrophe!
Imagine how many species and how much habitat must have existed when Antarctica was a covered in plants and roaming with animals?
And when it froze over, imagine the dying that took place.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  David Kamakaris
August 11, 2020 2:07 pm

It’s refreshing that they finally acknowledge it. For years we have heard that the current melt is “unprecedented”.
Cue griff in 3 – 2- 1-

fred250
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
August 11, 2020 4:44 pm

Which is of course totally WRONG

Current levels of Arctic Sea Ice are actually WELL ABOVE the normal levels for most of the Holocene,

Probably in the top 5-10% . !

comment image

comment image

comment image

That is because the world has only recovered partially from the COLDEST period in some 10,000 years.

comment image

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  David Kamakaris
August 11, 2020 10:40 pm

It’s what happens after the Arctic Ocean is ice-free that is interesting. A ‘for public consumption’ article that looks at that is at:

https://harpers.org/archive/1958/09/the-coming-ice-age/

The gentlemen who were interviewed for the article also had two papers published in “Science”.

Quote: These two serious, careful scientists — geophysicist Maurice Ewing, director of Columbia University’s Lamont Geological Observatory, and geologist-meteorologist William Donn believe they have finally found the explanation for the giant glaciers, which four times during the past million years have advanced and retreated over the earth. If they are right, the world is now heading into another Ice Age. It will come not as sudden catastrophe, but as the inevitable culmination of a process that has already begun in northern oceans. End quote.

It’s a 15 to 20 minute read – well worth the time…..

John Tillman
Reply to  Tombstone Gabby
August 12, 2020 8:31 am

That’s from 1958, before Betty Friedan gained notoriety.

Scientists now know that there were ten, not just four, glaciations in the past million years.

The abrupt end to the Younger Dryas which the profiled scientists studied is also now better understood.

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  John Tillman
August 12, 2020 6:45 pm

John Tillman

Thanks for the update on the number of ice ages John. I didn’t become interested in Global Warming till about a year ago – I still have a lot to learn, especially about the earlier work.

I pulled up a web page on one of the papers they had in “Science” – it showed a partial image of the first page. Their thoughts were apparently respectable enough to be published.

When it gets to just who can I believe, I quickly learned about the Bristlecone Pine. I walked among those trees in the White Mountains in 1975. Then I find out – the tree ring data headed down when thermometers went up. Gave me an insight into the thinking of certain researchers. I’m still learning.

It’s the little things. What I knew as the “International Geophysical Year” when I was in High School is now known as the “Third Polar Year” – which meant I had a lot more reading to do; the First and Second Polar Years, and the Fourth and Fifth. So much to look at, so little time.

Just Jenn
August 11, 2020 6:27 am

“low carbon future”…you’re made of carbon–you first!

Yes, lets kill off all plant life because we need to save the ice. Sounds like a great idea!

Ian Magness
August 11, 2020 6:28 am

Meanwhile, in the real world: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/08/11/greenlands-summer-melt-season-set-to-be-shortest-for-years/ , plus countless other papers on WUWT, notalotofpeopleknowthat, and many other sensible sites.
What a load of modelled carp!

Just Jenn
August 11, 2020 6:28 am

“low carbon future”…you’re made of carbon–you first!

Yes, lets knock off all plant life because we need to save the ice. Sounds like a great idea!

*made an oops..used the moderation word K & L L*

Mumbles McGuirck
August 11, 2020 6:35 am

The advances made in climate modelling means that we can create a more accurate simulation of the Earth’s past climate, which, in turn gives us greater confidence in model predictions for the future.”

What circular logic!! Because we believe our model’s simulation of the past, er believe even MORE in its simulation of the future. I DO believe in faeries, I DO believe in faeries….

Citizen Smith
Reply to  Mumbles McGuirck
August 11, 2020 7:25 am

Are systems that appear chaotic actually predictable once enough is known about how they work? Is the climate system chaotic or predictable? Do we just need more model pieces to put the puzzle together? How are volcanic eruptions, extra terrestrial impacts and clouds going to be modeled?

nyolci
Reply to  Citizen Smith
August 11, 2020 9:45 am

> Is the climate system chaotic or predictable?
Climate is chaotic, you can’t predict it exactly like “it will be raining on the 14th of July, 2044 in Rome at 10 AM”. However, you can calculate the average (or mean) of a lot variables with very good accuracy, like precipitation, temperature, etc. Like rainfall in Italy will be 223 mm plusminus whatever in 2044 (data is made up). Current models match observations very well.

MarkW
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 5:23 pm

“Current models match observations very well.”

Not even close to being true.

F1nn
Reply to  nyolci
August 12, 2020 4:21 am

“…we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
– IPCC AR4 WG1

You got three words right, “Climate is chaotic”. Very good, but if you try harder, you could reach fourth word, sometimes in future. If you´re lucky.

Current models run 3C-6C too hot.

nyolci
Reply to  Mumbles McGuirck
August 11, 2020 9:40 am

> What circular logic!!
No, it’s not. They have a climate reconstruction for past climates, and simulations match this reconstruction accurately. In other words, models have passed a very strong test. Again.

Mr.
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 10:37 am

“models have passed a very strong test”

The ones that sashay down the catwalks at fashion shows certainly have, but the gimpy ones that knuckle-drag out of universities are pathetic.

MarkW
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 11:22 am

When have they ever matched these reconstructions “accurately”?

nyolci
Reply to  MarkW
August 11, 2020 11:41 am

> When have they ever matched these reconstructions “accurately”?
Now and back. “Accuracy” means within error bounds, and they are narrowing those bounds each year. Reconstructions are getting better as well.

LdB
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 4:43 pm

Clearly you forgot the /sarc tag.

MarkW
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 5:24 pm

When your error bars are 10 times the signal seen in the real world, then you haven’t found anything.

Graemethecat
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 11:31 am

Incorrect. Models have been FORCED (“tuned”) by twiddling hundreds of parameters until they reproduce historical data. They have zero predictive skill.

Chris Wright
Reply to  nyolci
August 12, 2020 3:07 am

Oh, please. When running climate models for the past they already know the answer. Any fool can predict the past. The models are full of arbitrary factors that can be adjusted – it’s known as parameterisation. Obviously these factors will be adjusted in such a way as to get the best fit with the past climate. It’s little more than curve-fitting and it does not rely on any improved understanding of how the climate works.

With this in mind, an obvious prediction would be that the models predict the past climate quite well, but they fail miserably to predict the future. This is exactly what has happened. Over decades the models have predicted roughly three times more warming than actually occurred. In other words, they are junk, you could probably do better by flipping a coin. And studies, like this one, that assume the models really do model how the climate works are also junk.
Chris

F1nn
Reply to  nyolci
August 12, 2020 4:29 am

Do those very strong tested passed models show what was the reason to past warmer periods? Like the one in the beginning of last century?

Gordon A. Dressler
August 11, 2020 6:36 am

Al Gore, book two.

Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
August 11, 2020 6:48 am

“Gordon A. Dressler August 11, 2020 at 6:36 am
Al Gore, book two.”

Yes sir.
The Arctic is screaming

https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/18/the-ice-free-arctic-obsession-of-agw/

Latitude
August 11, 2020 6:46 am

depends on what “ice free” means….

Had a conversation with Julienne one time about that….

…she tells me “ice free” means anything less that 1 million square kilometers

now that’s the size of Egypt…..and for any normal person….that is hardly ice free

griff
Reply to  Latitude
August 11, 2020 7:06 am

That is the official definition, yes.

Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 7:17 am

Griff,

Its a dumb definition, why are you supporting a dumb definition?

MarkW
Reply to  Thomas Pearson
August 11, 2020 8:15 am

The dumb definition is what he is paid to support.

Latitude
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 11:31 am

griff….

it’s the size of Texas and California together….

nothing that huge can be called ice free

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Latitude
August 11, 2020 2:17 pm

This is using the same logic that when Al Gore reaches his last 2 billion he’ll declare himself bankrupt.

Gerald Machnee
Reply to  Latitude
August 11, 2020 5:39 pm

if you applied that definition to islands, just think how may places would be “land free”.

fred250
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 4:46 pm

1 Wadham = 1,000,000 km²

fred250
Reply to  fred250
August 11, 2020 10:14 pm

its OFFICIAL !

philincalifornia
Reply to  Latitude
August 11, 2020 5:41 pm

Yeah, but I can see her point though, if we’re talking about extent, which is 15%. From all I’ve read, this came from shipping projections and, presumably, safety aspects of negotiating such waters.

If you still have a direct line to Julienne, who used to post on here, I would be seriously interested in her take on Antarctic sea ice in 2014 (record high) and 2017 (record low) and it’s a big swing. Surely some kind of instrumentation issue? If not, what?

John Tillman
Reply to  philincalifornia
August 11, 2020 10:14 pm

Two freak weather events in 2016 caused Antarctic low in 2017.

philincalifornia
Reply to  John Tillman
August 12, 2020 3:33 am

Well yeah, but the 2014 high looks a bit freaky too.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

John Tillman
Reply to  philincalifornia
August 12, 2020 8:36 am

But the trend from 1979 to 2014 was gaining, so it was a record high comparable to the record Arctic low in 2012.

The years before 2014 were high too.

icisil
August 11, 2020 6:48 am

And then 2045… er, 2055… we meant 2065…

As long as there’s money funding this doodoo it will always be just around the corner.

Timo, Not That One
August 11, 2020 6:48 am

“Free beer, tomorrow”

Dodgy Geezer
Reply to  Timo, Not That One
August 11, 2020 7:01 am

Bob boder
August 11, 2020 6:48 am

Waiting for Griff (the slanderer) to come on and say how bad the arctic ice looks now, its going to be the second worst on record, oh wait it took a right turn on him and is now behind even last year.

griff
Reply to  Bob boder
August 11, 2020 7:08 am

But last year was the 2nd lowest on record. Even with average melt to end of season it is highly unlikely to come in now lower than third. which would put 4 of the 5 lowest values in the last 5 years.

and it has been at lowest for date for some weeks now, which ought to be of concern

Editor
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 7:20 am

Griff,

Really you are concerned about something, but never tell us WHY you think low summer ice is bad.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 8:16 am

Still not as low as 2012.
The world is still warming up out of the Little Ice Age.

You have yet to give a solid reason as to why a completely ice free arctic would be a problem.

philincalifornia
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 8:22 am

2019 was a tie with 2007. That should be telling you something Griff.

Please try to make a habit of checking the nsidc site before posting incorrect information:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Javier
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 9:41 am

last year was the 2nd lowest on record. Even with average melt to end of season it is highly unlikely to come in now lower than third. which would put 4 of the 5 lowest values in the last 5 years.

Come on Griff. That’s goalpost moving. The predictions are for summer ice-free Arctic, not for low ice. Let’s see the record of failed predictions by climate scientists regarding Arctic sea ice:

9. Arctic sea ice predictions

2007 Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski from Dept. Oceanography of the US Navy predicted an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer 2013, and said the prediction was conservative.
2007 NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer in 2012.
2008 University of Manitoba Prof. David Barber predicted an ice-free North Pole for the first time in history in 2008.
2010 Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC predicts the Arctic will be ice free in the summer by 2030.
2012 Prof. Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at the University of Cambridge (UK), predicted a collapse of the Arctic ice sheet by 2015-2016.

Reality check: No decrease in September Arctic sea ice extent has been observed since 2007.

We’ll just add this new prediction for 2035 to the list of failed predictions in due time.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Javier
August 11, 2020 5:54 pm

Didn’t Al Gore claim the Arctic would be ice-free by 2007?

The last time it was this warm, in the Early Twentieth Century, the arctic ice levels were also low.

Then the world cooled off for a few decades and the ice levels increased.

Javier
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 12, 2020 1:55 am

Al Gore isn’t qualified to make predictions about science. He was just repeating Maslowski’s prediction.

Jim
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 12, 2020 2:36 am

Sorry to be pedantic Javier, but that would be Maslowski’s “projection”.

A very different can of worms!

John Tillman
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 12:20 pm

Last year was the fourth lowest:

2012: 3387 M sq km
2007: 4155
2016: 4165
2019: 4192
2011: 4344

Why do you keep lying, when year after year, you’ve been shown reality, according to NOAA?

David Kamakaris
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 2:34 pm

Griff, for the 1000th time, how long is your record? I’ll wait.

Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 3:12 pm

griff, ready to accept, that the Greeland melting period seems to be over ? 😀
4 billion tons new snow in one day

On 10.8.2020, the Greenland ice has grown by 4 billion tonnes (4 Gt) due to the fourth snow bomb in a row: this is very unusual at this time of year and should be a new daily record: In the lower graph, the blue line is far above the zero line in the white area of the previously unmeasured increase. After heavy snowfalls on 7 and 8 August 2020 without loss of mass, an unusually early gain in mass had already occurred in the Greenland ice sheet on 9 August 2020. The mass balance is thus much more favourable than in the WMO climate mean 1981-2010, which has been binding worldwide since 2015, at this time of year (lower graph, blue line clearly above the dark grey line).

Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Source

fred250
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 4:49 pm

WRONG as always

Biodata clear shows that Arctic sea ice levels were MUCH LOWER during at least 90% of the last 10,000 years

The record you refer to is pitifully short and totally meaningless….

But you KNOW that, don’t you griff..

Why are you such a manic CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER, griff?.

griff
Reply to  Bob boder
August 11, 2020 7:09 am

By the way, please provide evidence of my ‘slander’ I can pass to my legal team… or you could just argue based on evidence?

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 8:18 am

It really is pathetic how griff can’t even remember what he wrote a few years ago.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  MarkW
August 11, 2020 6:00 pm

Has it been that long since he smeared Susan Crockford?

I noticed Susan treated Griff very well in a recent comment. I thought that showed a lot of character on her part.

HotScot
Reply to  MarkW
August 12, 2020 2:56 am

MarkW

Griff can’t remember what he had for breakfast.

LdB
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 8:21 am

If you had a legal team they would tell you slander is verbal defamation, libel is written defamation.

Juan Slayton
Reply to  LdB
August 11, 2020 8:52 am

If you had a legal team they would tell you slander is verbal defamation, libel is written defamation.

Fair point, but you need to direct it to Bob boder, not griff.

Bob boder
Reply to  Juan Slayton
August 11, 2020 9:34 am

Anyone that has been here for a long time will remembesr when Griff made all kinds of accusations about Susan Crockfords credentials only to have dozens of people through it right back in his face. He accused Willie Soon of being both a fraud and being on the take, was made to look like a fool again. Hes done it to many contributes here and when ever someone passes a study he doesn’t like he attacks the author. For him to state” or you could just argue based on evidence?” is beyond laughable. Why Anthony lets on the site i will never know.

MarkW
Reply to  Juan Slayton
August 11, 2020 11:23 am

I believe the point is that what griff has done is libel, not slander.

Bob boder
Reply to  Juan Slayton
August 11, 2020 12:37 pm

My bad

MarkW
Reply to  Juan Slayton
August 11, 2020 5:26 pm

No problem, other than the lawyers, nobody cares.

Bob boder
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 9:28 am

I have provided it many times, Susan Crockford, Willie Soon and many others.

Bob boder
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 9:42 am

Griff

Take the bet.
You name the year that the north pole will be open water and if it happens then or before I will never post again. If not you never post again. Your buddy TonyM took the bet and lost and isn’t here any more, but at least he had the guts to take the bet.

Griff has been spewing his none sense for ever now, 6 or 7 (around 2012) years ago he was sure the north pole would be ice free with in a few years, but like all frauds he just moves the goal posts when he’s proven wrong.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Bob boder
August 11, 2020 2:26 pm

Can’t reply to your previous post Bob, but Anthony lets grief on here for laughs. Just picture Ralph Wiggum when you read his posts.

MarkW
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
August 11, 2020 5:26 pm

That’s true, we do give griff a lot of grief.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Bob boder
August 11, 2020 4:48 pm

He already took a bet, along with Tony McLeod, and they lost. They both said they would not return to WUWT. But now griff is back, again.

Bob boder
Reply to  Patrick MJD
August 12, 2020 9:24 am

Actually Griff never took the bet, he ducked and dived every time I tried to pin him down, at least Tony was a man and took the bet and lost. He did try to come back a couple times but i kept after him posting the original bet until he finally gave up.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Patrick MJD
August 12, 2020 6:22 pm

“Bob boder August 12, 2020 at 9:24 am”

May have had a bet with someone else, but he did say he was out of here and would not be back. But now he’s back. At least TonyM had some integrity.

Phil.
Reply to  Bob boder
August 20, 2020 10:49 am

Bob boder August 11, 2020 at 9:42 am

You name the year that the north pole will be open water and if it happens then or before I will never post again.

Here’s a view of the N Pole yesterday:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2906.0;attach=281581;image

Jim
Reply to  Phil.
August 20, 2020 9:27 pm

I note that nobody has taken the other side of my bet yet. A wise decision on y’all’s part given subsequent events!

Here’s a picture of the North Pole in 2016, courtesy of the Canadian Coastguard:

https://twitter.com/coastguardcan/status/769867469628596224

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 2:21 pm

grief has a legal team 😀

fred250
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 4:58 pm

You would have to be one of the most slimy little climate change deniers there is, griff.

Pretending you have a legal team… LOL

Paid for from the climate trough, no doubt ! 😉

You are a JOKE !

fred250
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 5:00 pm

“or you could just argue based on evidence?”

Something that griff is INCAPABLE of doing !

He only know mindless anti-science propaganda pap.

F1nn
Reply to  fred250
August 12, 2020 5:15 am

Yessh!

Griff is science denier, like “them” all. I use that term, and “they” turn red and start screaming. It works and it´s funny.

HotScot
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 2:53 am

griff

“my legal team”…..Bwahahahahahahahahahahahah!

Where did your Dog get it’s degree in Law from?

The University of Kenneltucky?

LdB
Reply to  Bob boder
August 11, 2020 7:16 am

I think it’s up to about 5 years he has been bleating on about the ice. We had him shipping up plastic islands for the polar bears for a while, solving both the plastic waste problem at helping the bears. Hey it would be more than any climate scientist has done and at least it would be practical.

Bob boder
Reply to  LdB
August 12, 2020 9:26 am

its bin a lot more than 5 years, he was sure 2013 was going to be the year and than when it wasn’t he started shifting dates.

Bob boder
Reply to  Bob boder
August 11, 2020 9:26 am

take the bet Griff (the slanderer)!
your full sh** and have been since the first post you ever made.

Dodgy Geezer
August 11, 2020 6:58 am

Is there no end to the things that scientists can take money for?

During the Cold War it was nice and simple. They took money for developing weapons. But since the Cold War has ended, we have seem a HUGE expansion in the sorts of things scientists can offer.

We have just closed much of the West’s economy down in order to have a go at eradicating a common flu virus. With no preparation, so much of what we were doing was ill-informed and based on blind hope.

So we’re now going to have a go at eliminating an Interglacial. Good luck with that.

Perhaps the next wild idea will be to reposition Pluto so that it can become a planet again? Really, I think that i might prefer war. At least you know where you are with an enemy…

Greg S.
August 11, 2020 6:59 am

Keep moving those goal posts.

griff
August 11, 2020 7:01 am

This is entirely consistent with the observed rate of decline over the 41 years of the satellite record.

NASA says ‘September Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 12.85 percent per decade, relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.’

This year’s extent is just in third lowest for date, after a long spell as lowest for date…

The NSIDC news bulletin from start of august may prove enlightening:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Tom in Florida
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 7:16 am

And what is so special about the 1981-2010 average?

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 11, 2020 7:50 am

Must be cherry-picking time. I can almost taste those cherry pies the Alarmists are cooking up. Mmmmm…..cherry pies.

LdB
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
August 11, 2020 8:23 am

Yes he dodged giving the 2010 to 2020 decade decline average 🙂

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  LdB
August 11, 2020 2:48 pm

That would be 1991 to 2020 – the so called “Climate Normals” – that will not be available until this time next year. No surprise these were “dodged.”

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/climate-normals

Dennis G Sandberg
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
August 12, 2020 7:52 am

Ice free in 2035, but for how long? A month maybe? So what? As Hillary said about a different issue, “at this point what difference does it make.”

MarkW
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 11, 2020 8:19 am

The 70’s were a time of record high arctic ice levels.

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  MarkW
August 11, 2020 7:21 pm

Until the 1976-77 period when “ice arches” (aka ice dams) fractured, broke apart and the ice escaped to the south, then melted.

John Tillman
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
August 12, 2020 8:39 am

That’s when the PDO shifted.

nyolci
Reply to  Tom in Florida
August 11, 2020 9:34 am

> And what is so special about the 1981-2010 average?
Reliable satellite data. Before 1981, that was patchy or missing.

jtom
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 11:15 am

The models can accurately reproduce Arctic ice levels 127,000 years ago, and exactly fifteen years into the future, but cannot provide useable estimates for the 1970s? That’s your story, and you’re sticking to it, eh?

LOL

nyolci
Reply to  jtom
August 11, 2020 11:42 am

> but cannot provide useable estimates for the 1970s?
Wrong, they can.

MarkW
Reply to  jtom
August 11, 2020 5:28 pm

Only if you use ridiculously large error bars.

Editor
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 7:22 am

Griff,

still worried about low summer ice, but never tell us WHY we should be worried about it.

Polar Bears are not worried about it.

griff
Reply to  Sunsettommy
August 11, 2020 8:18 am

I would have thought before commenting on it, you’d have taken the time to research that yourself…

but hey, here’s a straightforward piece about it:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/cryosphere-oceans/sea-ice/index

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 9:28 am

Since the article repeats the lie that a lack of sea ice will mean the sun will warm the arctic waters in the summer, nothing else it mentions is worth paying attention to.

Editor
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 11:08 am

You still can’t answer a simple question.

It is clear you have nothing to show, that little to no summer ice is bad for the planet.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 2:31 pm

Interesting site. It even has a diagram of circular reasoning. 😀

Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 3:30 pm

griff, ready to accept, that the Greeland melting period seems to be over ? 😀
4 billion tons new snow in one day

On 10.8.2020, the Greenland ice has grown by 4 billion tonnes (4 Gt) due to the fourth snow bomb in a row: this is very unusual at this time of year and should be a new daily record: In the lower graph, the blue line is far above the zero line in the white area of the previously unmeasured increase. After heavy snowfalls on 7 and 8 August 2020 without loss of mass, an unusually early gain in mass had already occurred in the Greenland ice sheet on 9 August 2020. The mass balance is thus much more favourable than in the WMO climate mean 1981-2010, which has been binding worldwide since 2015, at this time of year (lower graph, blue line clearly above the dark grey line).

Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Source

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 7:31 am

I’d be much more concerned over increasing sea ice. Don’t give a hoot about loss of sea ice.

MarkW
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
August 11, 2020 8:20 am

Loss of sea ice increases the amount of heat the arctic is able to radiate to space. It’s a very efficient negative feedback.

Mr.
Reply to  MarkW
August 11, 2020 10:31 am

Sorry MarkW, but the words “heat” and “Arctic” are synonymous with that infamous expression –
“military intelligence”

John Tillman
Reply to  Mr.
August 11, 2020 11:19 am

“Intelligence is what the enemy uses.”

–James Thurber

Javier
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 10:12 am

This is entirely consistent with the observed rate of decline over the 41 years of the satellite record. NASA says ‘September Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 12.85 percent per decade, relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.’

Except that the rate of decline for the last 12 years (soon 13) has been zero %. That is entirely inconsistent, and puts the usefulness of that decadal rate to shame, because the decadal rate at 2012 and the decadal rate at 2020 are significantly different. Does the decrease in the decadal rate over time mean that global warming is slowing down? It appears so, as the rate of warming is also decreasing:
comment image

Newminster
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 12:43 pm

So at least we now know what the “record” is. 41 years.

Why should anyone give a rat’s ass about a record that goes back barely half a lifetime on a planet that has been around for 4.5 billion years?

fred250
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 5:05 pm

“This year’s extent is just in third lowest for date”

WRONG AGAIN

For most of the last 10,000 years, Arctic sea ice levels have been MUCH LOWER.

The period from 1979 starts at ANOMALOUSLY EXTREME HIGH sea ice extents similar to those of the LIA.

STOP DENYING CLIMATE CHANGE, griff. !

Gerald Machnee
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 5:46 pm

**NASA says ‘September Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 12.85 percent per decade, relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.’**

That is a lie as it has not changed in the last decade.

Bruce Cobb
August 11, 2020 7:05 am

They’ve got the art of goalpost-moving down to a science.

ScienceABC123
August 11, 2020 7:10 am

I have noticed that climate alarmists have indeed learned over the past 20 years. Instead of coming up with dire predictions for the next 5-10 years, they are now coming up with dire predictions for the next 15-20 years…

Jonas
August 11, 2020 7:25 am

I thought that Arctic became ice free 2013. Did not Mr Gore tell us that ?

I do not at all understand why people are skeptical. Oceania is under water, arctic is ice free, New York is flooded , terrible hurricanes and typhones rages, famine due to climate change is a fact … or ?
Why do anyone listen to all this crap. They have been totally wrong in all their predictions, and I am very sure that they will continue being totally wrong.

August 11, 2020 7:29 am

2035, 2035, I know that number, IPCC, grey literature, Schellnhuber…..
ahhh, yeah, Himalaya, free of all glaciers, citation of ther error base, and now,
ok, now the Arctic ice free in 2035, the magic year 😀

Jeff Alberts
August 11, 2020 7:29 am

Maybe I missed it, but how do they “know” how much sea ice there was 17kya?

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
August 11, 2020 7:52 pm

Oops, should have been 127kya.

Sara
August 11, 2020 7:32 am

Isn’t it time someone suggested that these benighted souls who are so fearful of climate “change” get some professional help with their problem?

I mean, really, when you come right down to it, it’s always about money (preferably yours) and more studies and that excessive use of the word “change”, indicating that there may just be some paranoia about change going on with these poor, lost souls. I mean, seriously (not!), folks, we should have some sympathy for them and their obvious fear of change of any kind.

Even Mars doesn’t have a steady state climate, nor does Jupiter or Saturn, and Uranus and Neptune have their own agendas, too, so — well, you just have to feel some kind of sympathy – maybe about ten cents’ worth – for these lost souls. Buy them a beer or something and have a nice chat, and maybe you can get them to understand how feeble the Hooman Rayss is in regard to controlling anything on any planet anywhere, and that perhaps they get therapy for their untenable Fear of Change.

Just a suggestion, nothing else.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Sara
August 11, 2020 8:32 am

I think professional help with their problem of being defunded would be more appropriate.

Mr.
August 11, 2020 7:33 am

I suppose that in 2035 we’ll see another “Ship Of Fools” expedition get stuck in the ice that isn’t there. 😂

MikeP
Reply to  Mr.
August 11, 2020 8:39 am

They already have polar bears walking on ice that isn’t there in Hudson Bay …

Coach Springer
August 11, 2020 7:48 am

Does this mean that polar bears will have to drink warm beer for the first time in 127,000 years?

Wolf at the door
August 11, 2020 7:55 am

The minute you see UK MET office……..(please have fun completing guys!)

MarkW
August 11, 2020 8:07 am

The arctic was ice free 127,000 years ago. And nothing bad happened.
Ergo, there is no reason to assume that anything will happen, even if the arctic goes ice free again in the future.

BTW, the arctic being ice free, means that it will be much easier to access the natural resources up there, and that’s a good thing.

nyolci
Reply to  MarkW
August 11, 2020 9:36 am

> The arctic was ice free 127,000 years ago. And nothing bad happened.
How do you know that “nothing bad happened”? Do you know anything at all about this?

Bob boder
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 9:47 am

nyolci

did we have run away global warming?
dis we have a mass extinction event?
did early homo whatever get wiped out?
did the seas burn away leaving the planet barren?
did the polar bears even disappear?

Come on, what universe are you living in!

John Tillman
Reply to  Bob boder
August 11, 2020 11:14 am

Homo sapiens sapiens, ie we Anatomically Modern Humans, were then probably restricted to Africa, so remained relatively unaffected by Arctic sea ice fluctuations during the Eemian.

Neanderthals in Europe, West and Central Asia; Denisovans in Central and East Asia; H. erectus in South and East Asia, plus undiscovered archaic groups in Asia and Africa, known only from their genetic traces, not fossils most likely did notice climatic changes. Our ancestors by that time had long since wiped out H. naledi, the archaic type holding out in subtropical woodlands of South Africa.

nyolci
Reply to  Bob boder
August 11, 2020 11:51 am

> did we have run away global warming?
Very likely yes.

> dis we have a mass extinction event?
Scientists always talk about the importance of the rate of change. This is unprecedented now. Reconstructions show much milder rates in the past. So the answer is no, and this is what’s expected.

> did early homo whatever get wiped out?
Why should early homo have gotten wiped out?

> did the seas burn away leaving the planet barren?
??? What’s this stupidity?

> did the polar bears even disappear?
A lot of species disappeared, a lot appeared. Polar bears, as a species, is relatively young.

sendergreen
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 12:14 pm

nyolci says in reply to:
did the seas burn away leaving the planet barren?
—————
“??? What’s this stupidity?”

About 12 years ago the North American Great Lakes were at historic lows. Regional and local news agencies published “experts” saying that within 50 years the Great Lakes would be empty and dry … because of climate change.

As of last year the Great Lakes are now at near historic high levels, and the Washington Post says…
wait for it….. “because of of climate change”.

I was already tired of this CO2 prairie fertilizer by 2005.

Graemethecat
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 12:21 pm

So where is the evidence of this runaway global warming you assert happened?

How do you know the rate of climate change today is faster than in the past?

Newminster
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 12:49 pm

And what put a stop to “runaway global warming”?

I assume you know what “runaway” means.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 2:42 pm

“> did we have run away global warming?
Very likely yes.”

He’s right. There is evidence.

LdB
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 4:50 pm

Perhaps try reading nyolci
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_greenhouse_effect

The runaway greenhouse effect is often formulated with water vapor as the condensable species. In this case the water vapor reaches the stratosphere and escapes into space via hydrodynamic escape, resulting in a desiccated planet.

Only a greentard or a climate scientist(tm) would believe you can have a desiccated planet that magically fixes itself so we could live on it.

So try again could Earth ever have gone into runaway greenhouse effect?

sendergreen
Reply to  LdB
August 11, 2020 5:02 pm

LdB says :

So try again could Earth ever have gone into runaway greenhouse effect?
———————————————————

Looking at the long term temperature record of the last 500K Years the “up and down” changes look very similar in steep slope.

So, if one names the up-slope as “runaway global warming” … to be intellectually honest you have to tag the down-slopes into glaciations as “runaway global cooling”. A plunge. The “breadbaskets” of the Northern Hemisphere would be totally unproductive in less than a century, … perhaps as little as a decade from the initial onset of the next glaciation.

philincalifornia
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 5:09 pm

nyolci says in reply to:
did the seas burn away leaving the planet barren?
—————
“??? What’s this stupidity?”

Alternate answer to sendergreen’s:

Take it up with Dr. James Hansen sir. It’s not only stupidity, it quite possibly could be the most wrong calculation in the history of this planet.

MarkW
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 5:33 pm

There is nothing unusual about the rate of change. Regardless, only total idiots try to compare the resolution of century scale proxies with daily and yearly “weather” records.

Polar Bears are young, but they are older than 127K years.

LdB
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 6:31 pm

Then it becomes Nick Stokes redefinition games, Thermal runaway has a definition and behaviour and some climate scientist believe that is possible
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_runaway

What is talked about now is “periods of sharp instability” and mixing the two terms just muddies the water and you have to wonder if that is the intent. So it’s the runaway you are having when you aren’t having a runaway because the emotion to the end audience plays better.

Javier
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 9:49 am

Actually we know lots of Neanderthals died that year. About as many as the year before. Summer heat waves may have killed some or at least shortened their lives somewhat. They were better prepared for the cold than us so not having all that ice in the Arctic was a bitch to them 😉

Bob boder
Reply to  Javier
August 11, 2020 12:42 pm

Lol, along with almost every other type of animal. Thank god the run away global warming reversed it self miraculously.

Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 10:09 am

I’ll tell you what “bad happened.”

An Ice age covering all of Canada, 1/3 of the US, most of Europe, etc., etc. 22,000 years ago it started to melt, raising sea levels worldwide about 135 meters until it essentially flattened out about 2,000 years ago, with only minimal rise thereafter.

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  tomwys
August 12, 2020 2:57 pm

G’day Tomwys;

You stated I’ll tell you what “bad happened.” An Ice age covering …

Reference https://harpers.org/archive/1958/09/the-coming-ice-age/

Yup – 127,000 years ago the latest ice age began, with an ice-free Arctic Ocean.

Note that the article in Harper’s magazine (written in the 1950’s!!) was intended for the general public. The two researchers involved also had papers published in “Science” during that decade.

Quote: It is this melting of Arctic ice which Ewing and Donn believe will set off another Ice Age on earth. They predict that it will cause great snows to fall in the north — perennial unmelting snows which the world has not seen since the last Ice Age thousands of years ago. These snows will make the Arctic glaciers grow again, until their towering height forces them forward. The advance south will be slow, but if it follows the route of previous ice ages, it will encase in ice large parts of North America and Europe. It would, of course, take many centuries for that wall of ice to reach New York and Chicago, London and Paris. But its coming is an inevitable consequence of the cycle which Ewing and Donn believe is now taking place. End quote.

It was a reprint of this article that I read about a year ago that got me to looking to see what the current state of the research was. Nothing I’ve seen or read in the past 12 months, here or any other web site, negates what was written in the 1950’s. It’s well worth the 15 to 20 minutes to read. (And not a single mention of carbon dioxide.)

Jl
Reply to  nyolci
August 11, 2020 3:59 pm

Nyolci-“how do you know nothing bad happened?” How do you know something bad will happen?

Bob boder
Reply to  Jl
August 12, 2020 9:30 am

Nah, he is right as Javier points out lots of “bad things” happened, of course they are the normal “bad things” that happen through out history. But that’s OK because apparently he thinks we had run away global warming! Not sure what planet he thinks he’s living on, but hey whatever. But the one the rest of us are living on is quite cool compared to most of its history.

August 11, 2020 8:12 am

Hehe, with RealClimate activists like Eric Steig on the menu here, well, then we understand where this comes from. Next please.

Jim
August 11, 2020 8:13 am

Thanks very much for the heads up Charles/Anthony,

What does the team think about melt pond coverage across the Arctic Ocean during the 2020 Arctic sea ice melting season?

Bob boder
Reply to  Jim
August 12, 2020 10:49 am

Look at the arctic sea temperature if you really want to see the ice extent, anything 0 or below is still ice.

Jim
Reply to  Bob boder
August 12, 2020 1:29 pm

To be frank Bob, I’ll look at one or more of the numerous maps of Arctic sea ice concentration when I “really want to see the ice extent”. See for example the University of Bremen flavour:

comment image

Walter Sobchak
August 11, 2020 8:26 am

“Using the model”

No actual data were harmed during the construction of this fantasy.

The difference between models and science is the same as the difference between science and science fiction.

Jonas
August 11, 2020 8:34 am

My prediction is that climate alarmism will disappear (completely) 2026.

Then they will start alarming about something else. That is my second prediction.

Rah
August 11, 2020 8:35 am

And the west side highway will be underwater any day now.

Coeur de Lion
August 11, 2020 8:40 am

Is griff going to take my bet?

Phil.
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
August 12, 2020 8:54 am

What exactly is your bet? Sea ice area is already way below 4million sq km, today 3.35 million sq km.

n.n
August 11, 2020 8:45 am

Past evidence supports what is possible, not a plausible, or even probable, future.

Billy
August 11, 2020 8:49 am

Once again, people at a university who cannot get a real job are predicting the future, far enough out that they will never be called on it. No money back guarantee.
Why don’t they predict the stock market or bonds? Lots of fodder there.

jtom
Reply to  Billy
August 11, 2020 11:23 am

They would lose their a$$e(t)$ predicting stocks and bonds. Much easier to suck money out of gullible fools and power-hungry governments.

Coeur de Lion
August 11, 2020 8:50 am

Which got lost I think. £100 says that Arctic ice will bottom out above four million square kilometres in September as every year since 2007 save 2012. Less I pay. No takers this year so far.

griff
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
August 11, 2020 9:43 am

er… shouldn’t you have paid out last year?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3228.0;attach=278457;image

gives 3.96 million for 2019…

and if the 4 lowest years are 12, 19,, 16 and (very likely) 20, what does that say about the state of the ice? It is hardly ‘recovering’ is it?

John Tillman
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 10:59 am

The spirit of truth is not in you. Yet again you conveniently forget 2007.

NSDIC says 4.165 million sq km for 2016 and 4192 for 2019, both higher than 2007’s 4.155.

Please commit these NSDIC figures to memory (not that I trust NOAA):

2012: 3387
2007: 4155
2016: 4165
2019: 4192
2011: 4344

2015: 4433
2008: 4590
2010: 4615
2018: 4656
2017: 4665

2014: 5029
2013: 5054
2009: 5119

Please note that two of the lowest years happened after the record minimum in 2012, but so did two before it. The highest year since 2007 occurred before 2012, but the next two highest after it. Also observe that 2017 and 2018 are fourth and fifth highest since Arctic sea ice started bottoming out in 2007, and both are since the low of 2012.

The trend is sideways since 2007, with the lowest years all experiencing late summer Arctic cyclones, two in the case of 2016. IOW, weather events.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 11:25 am

Thus, it appears that in September 2020, with a high degree of confidence, Arctic sea ice summer minimum should come in between 4.1 and 4.7 million sq km, same as for all but four of the past 13 years.

So, Griff, you’d be unwise to take the bet.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 11:37 am

And three of those four were over 5.0 M sq km.

LdB
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 4:41 pm

Which is also why he didn’t give the 2010-2020 decline average because it’s basically flat. You can see it clearly on any arctic sea ice graph. The ice declined from whatever to 2007 and then runs flat for 13 years. Same problem has happened to sea level rise, even since jason 3 has come online it’s a lot less than historic.

griff
Reply to  John Tillman
August 12, 2020 12:30 am

‘all but 4’… you don’t think that having 4 of the lowest years since 2011 shows the ice is not recovering and in a still declining state?

Please give me you view on the state of the ice: static, recovering, what?

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
August 12, 2020 8:50 am

Griff,

Please look at the actual numbers.

Since 2012 low, three years have been below the arithmetic mean since 2007 and four above it.

Before and including 2012, three were above this average and three below it.

The trend is flat since 2007 and up since 2012.

Bob boder
Reply to  John Tillman
August 12, 2020 9:35 am

Griff

The bottoming of a trough, you know like a sin wave, almost all natural processes go through waning and waxing periods. its just the frequency and amplitude that changes over time to give us something fun to argue about. Its only the chicken little’s who think the sky is falling every time something goes through a transition that don’t understand that, you know the real science deniers like yourself.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 11:33 am

Median: 4590 M sq km
Mean: 4493

This is liable to be an average year, with final figure, as noted, dependent upon weather later this month and early September.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 4:03 pm

NSIDC. Once a typo. Twice dyslexic.

Bob boder
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 12:45 pm

Except 07 is one of the four. Which is 13 years ago in about a 40 year “ever” record, which started with a record high period as compared to the previous 40 years.

Take bet

fred250
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 10:17 pm

“It is hardly ‘recovering’ is it?”

True, It has stopped recovering from the anomalous highest extent since the LIA. (1979)

Pity, isn’t it. !

Nowhere near down to the Holocene norm, is it, griff. !

Still very much on the HIGH side.

SO MUCH Arctic sea ice up there, one would think we were in a COLDER period compared to the last 10,000 years.

Coeur de Lion
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 3:26 am

Come on, take the bet, then. Before it moves up to five million as the Arctic gets colder.

griff
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
August 11, 2020 9:45 am

I’ll think about it…

Here are the expert odds…

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3228.0.html

Javier
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 11:43 am

That poll is very funny, and they are no experts at all. They know nothing about the golden rule of forecasting.

So the last seven years the ASIE September daily minimum has been:
2013 4.81
2014 4.88
2015 4.26
2016 4.02
2017 4.47
2018 4.46
2019 3.96

Yet out of 67 votes the median vote is between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2 and only four votes (6%) are between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2 and none above 4.50.

That poll is actually measuring participant bias and someone should explain those supposed experts that what the sea ice does between April and July is not related to the September minimum.

The daily minimum is also a bad metric. The September monthly average or the lowest 30-day average are much better metrics.

Jim
Reply to  Javier
August 11, 2020 1:30 pm

You raise an interesting point Javier.

What’s your current best estimate for the 2020 “September monthly average” Arctic sea ice extent?

Javier
Reply to  Jim
August 11, 2020 4:39 pm

I don’t have a best estimate. I just think that the flat trend started in 2007 is going to continue one more year.
comment image

Must be sad for your Arctic sea ice forum over 12 years of Arctic sea ice going nowhere. Talk about futility. Like looking at grass growing, except that the grass actually grows.

Jim
Reply to  Jim
August 12, 2020 2:40 am

So what would it take for you to modify your “flat trend since 2007” prediction?

Javier
Reply to  Jim
August 12, 2020 7:39 am

A value that makes the trend since 2007 statistically different from zero at p<0.05.

Scissor
Reply to  Javier
August 11, 2020 2:58 pm

No one predicts “ice free” in real life if they have to put their own money on it.

MarkW
Reply to  Javier
August 11, 2020 5:37 pm

The definition of an expert is anyone who agrees with the alarmists.

griff
Reply to  Javier
August 12, 2020 12:21 am

I see you are confirming Coeur de Lion should have paid out last year!

Coeur de Lion
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 3:51 am

Btw I follow charctic Interactive Sea Ice graph on the nsdic. org website where vexed 2019 bottomed at 4.192sq KM. Am I not wrong? Looking at it today there’s room for a bet still but I usually close about now as I don’t want to get a reputation for ripping off the punters.

Phil.
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 5:52 pm

OK so Chartic is a five day average, which is why it was above 4.00 in 2019.

John Tillman
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 4:33 pm

Griff,

Are you still “thinking”, or have you once more skulked away after drive-by trolling?

Javier
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2020 5:24 pm

This is really funny.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,80.0.html

If we define Arctic sea ice free as less than one million of square kilometers measured with the official NSIDC sea ice extent (monthly average), when do you believe that the Arctic will be sea ice free?
2013-2016 44 (45.4%)
2017-2020 41 (42.3%)
2021-2030 9 (9.3%)
2031-2040 2 (2.1%)
2041-2060 1 (1%)
2061-2100 0 (0%)
Later than 2100 0 (0%)
Total Members Voted: 96
Voting closed: April 01, 2013, 10:12:01 PM

Lol, 88% of them already proven absolutely wrong, the rest in due time. What a bunch of alarmists, and the funny thing is that they consider themselves experts on the matter. They are still making polls and moving the date forward, like this one in 2018:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.0.html
where 18% voted for an Arctic sea ice free in 2018-2019, and 89% by 2040.

What a bunch of losers. In 5 years (2013 to 2018) the date when >85% believe the Arctic will be ice free has moved 20 years into the future (2020 to 2040). They’ll predict 2100 by 2035.

I guess this speaks volumes about the harsh times for Giff and his ice alarmists buddies.

Jim
Reply to  Javier
August 13, 2020 2:36 am

Perhaps you didn’t make it as far as my contribution to that thread Javier?

A slightly surreptitious recording of the experts’ opinions at The Economist’s Arctic Summit in 2013:

https://soundcloud.com/water-connects-us/ice-free-summer-arctic-numbers

Rear Admiral Jonathan White of the United States Navy and his alarmist buddies.

Jim
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
August 11, 2020 3:31 pm

If you define the precise terms of the wager more clearly I’ll probably be happy to take the other side Richard (says he guessing!).

Are you talking the daily minimum or monthly average? NSIDC or JAXA? Area or extent? etc. etc.

Coeur de Lion
Reply to  Jim
August 12, 2020 8:56 am

Precisely the minimum on the graph at the date in September.

Jim
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
August 13, 2020 1:50 am

There are lots of “graphs” Richard! Based on some of your other comments you are presumably referring to the NSIDC’s Charctic graph?

Here’s the current version:

comment image

I went on record a month ago saying that the 2020 minimum will be “at best the second lowest minimum extent of the satellite era”, so shall we base our wager around:

NSIDC Charctic 2020 Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4.115 million km²?

You still need to nominate a charity to receive my donation in the unlikely event that my prediction proves to be inaccurate!

Jim
Reply to  Jim
August 13, 2020 2:02 am

P.S. How is one supposed to embed a .PNG image on here?

N.B. A minor typo *4.155 million km²*

Jim
Reply to  Jim
August 15, 2020 5:17 am

Since nobody seems to know the answer to my question, here’s a little experiment:

Jim
Reply to  Jim
August 15, 2020 5:18 am

Which seems to have failed miserably!

steven c lohr
August 11, 2020 9:23 am

Back when Mark of ice-be-gone fame at CU Boulder made a splash about an ice free arctic, I called CU to ask why it didn’t happen when they said it would, since the open water year had come with the pesky ice still remaining. At the time, I believe it was either 2013 or 2015 (don’t quote me). Anyway, I was given a reference to a paper that declared that the models were in need of fine tuning and that they were working on “hind casting” to improve the prediction. Please, no one try to explain that process to me; I read the paper. And time marches on. Now that whole debacle has been forgotten by practically everybody, here we are still having fun with predictions of dubious fabrication, if I may say so. I still wonder about the “hind-cast-product” from time to time, but knowing full well what is usually cast from the hind, I’ll pass on that result and dispose of it along with this the most current “finding”.

Bob boder
Reply to  steven c lohr
August 11, 2020 12:48 pm

Yeah the by 2050 happened only after 2013 was worse than 2012 when we were all told by next year.

Scissor
Reply to  steven c lohr
August 11, 2020 2:44 pm

You should see all the empty buildings at CU Boulder. Mark and all his coworkers are “working” from home and have been since early March.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  steven c lohr
August 11, 2020 2:54 pm

This is a hind casting. 😀

comment image

Neo
August 11, 2020 10:09 am

Where do we go to collection the grants that funded useless research ?

August 11, 2020 10:34 am

The arctic melted naturally in the past?
Amazing…

Robert of Texas
August 11, 2020 10:37 am

A) Models do not represent REAL data – you cannot compare today with the past as modeled on a computer – all you are doing is comparing today against your ASSUMPTIONS about the past.

B) The loss of sea ice does NOT raise average ocean levels one iota.

C) If one accepts the Arctic has been ice free in the past, then one must accept that the ice melting in the Arctic is a NATURAL phenomenon and there is nothing unusual about it other than we get to watch.

D) If the Arctic ice melted in the past without man’s additional CO2, then one must accept that man’s additional CO2 is NOT the culprit.

griff
Reply to  Robert of Texas
August 12, 2020 12:18 am

but we have 41 years of actual and comparable data showing a continued decline – not just in annual extent, but in volume, age and thickness of ice, which is more important.

Nobody said this would raise sea levels…

We know why the artic was ice free the last time this occurred… orbital mechanics. But that cause is not in effect today… there’s another reason for low ice and it is obviously a warming planet… if the arctic melted for a reason in the past not now in operation, that is no reason at all why it can’t melt now because of human warming. Is it?

Graemethecat
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 2:48 am

The Arctic was ice-free in Summer during the Holocene, 6-8500 years ago: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/252572926_Ice_free_Arctic_Ocean_an_Early_Holocene_analogue

You can’t even get the basic facts right, can you?

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 6:37 am

What human warming? No-one has ever produced definitive evidence of such a thing, apart from maybe UHI.

Bob boder
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 9:38 am

give the date Griff and take the bet

ResourceGuy
August 11, 2020 10:54 am

Has anyone bothered to look at the drop in the heat content anomaly for the West Barents Sea and West Spitsbergen Sea?

Donald L Shockley Jr
August 11, 2020 10:59 am

Same story every year for two decades:
2000: “First ice-free North Pole in 50m years”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/aug/20/arctic
2001: “The Arctic Ice Cap is Shrinking!”
http://www.arctic.uoguelph.ca/cpe/arcticnews/updates/icecap.htm
2002: “Arctic to lose all summer ice by 2100”
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn3138-arctic-to-lose-all-summer-ice-by-2100/
2003: ” Arctic sea ice may be gone by the year 2100.”
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/ArcticIce
2004: “If this trend continues, summers in the Arctic could become ice-free by the end of the century.”
http://www.p1marinefoundation.com/news/P1Marine61249.ink
2005: ” in the near future (within 50-70 years) the Arctic Ocean will be ice free ”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2005EO360003
2006: “Arctic Ocean will have no ice in September by the year 2060”
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/sensing-our-planet/arctic-sea-ice-on-the-wane-now-what
2007: “entirely free of sea ice sometime between 2050 and 2100”
https://www.nature.com/news/2007/070917/full/070917-3.html
2008: “the Arctic could be completely ice free in the summer by the 2030s”
https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/climate_law_institute/the_arctic_meltdown/index.html
2009: “Arctic could be free of summer sea ice by 2030”
https://nsidc.org/news/inthenews/arctic-could-be-free-summer-sea-ice-2030
2010: ” At the end of each summer in 30 years, the projections show that sea ice in the Arctic will be very thin or totally absent.”
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/will-arctic-be-free-summer-sea-ice-30-years
2011: ” summer melt could lead to ice-free Arctic seas by 2016″
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-13002706
2012: “It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015”
https://skepticalscience.com/do-we-know-when-the-arctic-will-be-sea-ice-free.html
2013: “US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016”
https://www.carbonbrief.org/could-arctic-summers-be-sea-ice-free-in-three-years-time
2014: “Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report”
https://www.adn.com/arctic/article/expert-predicts-ice-free-arctic-2020-same-day-un-releases-climate-report/2014/11/02/
2015: “an ice-free Arctic in September is “likely” before 2050″
https://www.vox.com/2015/3/19/8258799/arctic-sea-ice-record
2016: “free of sea ice this year or next ”
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html
2017: “the disappearance of sea ice by the 2030s”
https://grist.org/article/arctic-sea-ice-could-be-a-thing-of-the-past-by-the-2030s/
2018: “ice in the Arctic has declined by a stunning 95 percent”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/11/arctic-is-even-worse-shape-than-you-realize/
2019: “ice-free Septembers as early as 2026”
https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/arctic-sea-ice-melting-2044

Bob boder
Reply to  Donald L Shockley Jr
August 12, 2020 10:57 am

Yeah its funny from 2000 to 2007 their linear line on there graph showed no ice by 2100, then 2007 happened and all the sudden there line showed 2020 or there about. Then 2012 hit and their line showed next year or 2 or 3 years at the latest, then came 2013 and they were back to 2100 and then came 2019 and we are back to 2050. Too funny just putting a slope to a graph and that’s what they call science. LMAO

AngryScotonFraggleRock
Reply to  Donald L Shockley Jr
August 13, 2020 1:04 am

‘Experts say’. An expert: someone who knows more and more about less and less until he knows nothing about everything 🧐🤣🤣.

Thank goodness the science is settled then.

ColMosby
August 11, 2020 11:01 am

I’m coming to the conclusion that arguments about carbon and temps are becoming pointless . IF you realize that achieving a low carbon world is so ridiculously easy and inexpensive if you admit an EV car world and a wor;ld of small modular molten salt nuclear reactors, which are safer than any power generation technology and have non of the claimed deficiencies of conventional nuclear. Just buildthe damn molten salt reactors and
put an end to the endless squabbling over carbon emissions – everyone can agree with this move to a clearly superior and cheaper power generation technology.

John Tillman
Reply to  ColMosby
August 11, 2020 11:21 am

Green Meanies can agree to no such thing. They were anti-nuke in all its forms before the CACA Cult polluted politics, and will be after it.

griff
Reply to  ColMosby
August 12, 2020 12:15 am

modular and/or salt technology is a great step forward…

…when it arrives.

There isn’t any now and a working prototype is still years off.

don’t count your chickens before they’ve hatched

Bob boder
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 10:51 am

Says the man committed to the “well Proven” solar and wind power!!! LMAO

D3F1ANT
August 11, 2020 11:41 am

Ha ha ha! Back to this preposterous canard, again, huh?

sendergreen
August 11, 2020 11:45 am

So, have they found the fossil 127,000 BP model year GM Hummer yet ?

John Tillman
Reply to  sendergreen
August 11, 2020 4:04 pm

The Neanderthal Industrial Age was sadly too brief to have left much of a record.

Jim Whelan
August 11, 2020 12:26 pm

I am unable to find words to express how sick I am of acting like climate models actually tell us anything factual.

chris
August 11, 2020 12:32 pm

the ‘claim’ is self-evidently true.

Sadly, deniers are playing Russia’s game; Russia is the clear winner in the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. As Russia sells access to Europe for goods from China, US industry is the loser due – in part – to transportation costs.

sendergreen
Reply to  chris
August 11, 2020 12:58 pm

chris says :
“Sadly, deniers are playing Russia’s game”
———————-

What, MORE fake Russia collusion accusations?
Yes, I deny CO2 has anything but a miniscule effect on world climate.
Yes, I’ve been saying for a decade and a half that the Arctic of the last interglacial warm period was completely ice free at it’s peak, and after. Completely naturally of course, free of influence from either Neanderthal, or Sapien industrial activity.

Let’s say the Arctic becomes navigable (low to zero ice), before the next stage in a return to Ice Age temperatures manifest. The Canadian North is not going to stay Canadian. There would most certainly be a race by the major powers to claim / seize claim the northern coast and major coastal islands.

MarkW
Reply to  chris
August 11, 2020 5:42 pm

Anyone who starts a comment by using the phrase “denier” has already indicated that he knows nothing about science and only cares about insulting those who dare to not agree with him.

Beyond that, this post just shows how desperate chris is to change the subject, even if he has to embarrass himself to do it.

MarkW
Reply to  chris
August 11, 2020 5:42 pm

BTW, this disappearance of arctic sea ice exists only in your drug rattled imagination.

KT66
Reply to  chris
August 11, 2020 6:33 pm

Just like Russian ice free shipping routes during the 1930’s?

Bob boder
Reply to  chris
August 12, 2020 9:47 am

Wow, so we need to end the use of carbon based energy, decrease the worlds populations, end capitalism, get rid of individualism and self reliance all because the Russians might profit from a little global warming.

Willem69
August 11, 2020 2:11 pm

But don’t you understand that this is great news!
Scientists say that the arctic was Ice free 127,000 years ago, and the polar bears survived!!
That is so awesome, i’ll go have a vegan latte now and celebrate 🎉.

PS,
( polar bears apparently evolved as a separate species between 350,000 and 6,000,000 years ago, at least according to polarbearsinternational.org. (maybe someone should narrow that down a bit))

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Willem69
August 11, 2020 3:25 pm

That’s close enough for government work.

griff
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
August 12, 2020 12:28 am

During the Eemian the earth’s orbit around the sun was more eccentric and its perihelion coincided with summer in the Northern Hemisphere (today it corresponds to the aphelion). During summer months, temperatures in the Arctic region were about 2-4 °C higher than today

That increase in summer insolation melted the ice.

I don’t understand how people can’t recognise that the conditions 127 to 106 thousand years ago are massively different from today and that we need to look at another reason why the ice is low today

John Tillman
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 9:07 am

If CO2 is well mixed, why did Arctic sea ice decline from 1979 to 2012, while Antarctic sea ice grew from 1979 to 2014?

How did CO2 grow Antarctic ice while diminishing Arctic ice?

The key Milankovitch cycle is axial tilt, which is always about the same during interglacials. Indeed the 41,000-year cycle causes them and interstadials.

sendergreen
Reply to  Willem69
August 11, 2020 3:42 pm

A CNN reporter traveled back in time to 127,000 BP a year ago and interviewed Oog.
Oog was sitting by his campfire chipping away at a rock with another rock to make a cutting edge.
The reporter asked him why he was burning wood.
… adding CO2 to the already dangerously warming atmosphere.
Oog grunted quizzically.
Then, the reporter told Oog he was harming the planet.
( fill in your own ending )

John Tillman
Reply to  sendergreen
August 11, 2020 4:27 pm

Oog (in local Neanderthalish dialect): More warm, more better.
CNN: Ninety-seven percent of all Anatomically Modern Scientists say you’re wrong!
Oog: Oog right. Oog know. You skull small but has brain in it. (Bash!) Yum! Animal fat! Good.

John Tillman
Reply to  sendergreen
August 11, 2020 4:40 pm

Neanderthal family Oog hoping that Oog brings home another CNN reporter, although ideally one with more meat on its bones:

comment image

fred250
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 5:25 pm

“CNN reporter”

Many are vegans… stringy, rancid and sour !

fred250
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 5:27 pm

and the brain matter contains basically zero nutrients. !

John Tillman
Reply to  sendergreen
August 11, 2020 4:47 pm

The little Oogs eagerly look forward to another treat of eyeballs, firm on the outside and moist and juicy on the inside, while Mrs. Oog and Mama Oog anticipate the delectable marrow from the long bones of the thin, lightly built stranger.

sendergreen
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 4:49 pm

Glad you’re enjoying it : )

John Tillman
Reply to  sendergreen
August 11, 2020 5:00 pm

Unfortunately, a childrens’ book on Neanderthal Family Oog is probably not going to sell.

sendergreen
Reply to  John Tillman
August 11, 2020 5:08 pm

John Tillman says:

Unfortunately, a childrens’ book on Neanderthal Family Oog is probably not going to sell.

—————————————
You’re wrong there John ….
Already have an order for 50 copies.

on Visa Card for one … Addams, Gomez
A “

John Tillman
Reply to  sendergreen
August 11, 2020 10:24 pm

Happy to be wrong, but how realistic is the book?

Do the Neanderthal kids eat their neighbors’ brains, bone marrow and eyeballs?

As even many Anatomically Modern Human hunter gatherer groups have done until recently?

John Tillman
Reply to  Willem69
August 11, 2020 3:50 pm

Six million is out. That’s before even grizzlies. By a lot!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_bear#Evolution_and_taxonomy

Phil.
Reply to  Willem69
August 12, 2020 5:41 pm

The Brown bear (Ursus arctos) and Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) diverged less than 500 kya according to comparison of their genomes.

John Tillman
August 11, 2020 3:57 pm

The balmy interval 121,000 to 125,000 BC probably enjoyed the best climate of the past 500,000 years, at least.

Patrick MJD
August 11, 2020 4:43 pm

It was supposed to have been ice free in 2013 according to predictions in 2005-ish.

August 11, 2020 7:23 pm

One study.

I’d stick with 2050

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Steven Mosher
August 11, 2020 7:47 pm

One tree was enough for Mann.

fred250
Reply to  Steven Mosher
August 11, 2020 7:53 pm

We know you have crystal balls. Cracked as soon as you saw the pay check.

A sell-out to the AGW meme, no self-worth whatsoever.

You do know current levels are far higher than for most of the last 10,000 years, don’t you.!

griff
Reply to  fred250
August 12, 2020 12:12 am

er… no: they are at the lowest for the last 10,000 years (since the arctic last refroze)

beng135
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 8:28 am

griff, an opinion is one thing, but stop polluting this site w/such fake “facts”.

Bob boder
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 9:41 am

There is strong evidence that the 1930s and 1940s were lower certainly comparable to today and 10,000 years ago there was most likely no ice all year round.

John Tillman
Reply to  Steven Mosher
August 11, 2020 10:28 pm

In 2050, Arctic ice should be on the way back down again after reaching its natural cyclic high c. 2040. But still higher than now, recovering from its cyclic trough.

griff
Reply to  John Tillman
August 12, 2020 12:22 am

It is going to climb for the next 20 years? That seems unlikely…

Coeur de Lion
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 3:56 am

Take the bet

Jim
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
August 12, 2020 4:39 am

Hi Coeur,

You seem to be ignoring me? Perhaps that’s because I guessed your first name wrong? If so my apologies.

You seem to be gradually firming up the terms of our wager, which is all to the good! If you lose £100 goes to my chosen charity?

https://www.shelterbox.org/donate/

What’s yours?

Jim
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
August 12, 2020 7:25 am

Given his (presumably?) continuing silence regarding my proposed wager perhaps “Coeur de Lion” would be well advised to change his name by deed poll to “Coeur de Souris”?

John Tillman
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 9:15 am

Why?

Arctic sea ice naturally waxes and wanes in an approximately 60-year cycle, due to oceanic oscillations, ie the PDO and AMO.

In the 1940s, Arctic sea ice was low and the Siberian coast clear in summer. In the 1970s, the USSR needed a nuclear-powered icebreaker to keep its Northern Sea Route open. In this century, it opened again, but now some summers it’s closed. The cycle continues.

No noticeable CO2 effect. After WWII, CO2 grew but so did ice, until the PDO switch of 1977.

John Tillman
Reply to  griff
August 12, 2020 11:34 am

Griff,

Following its natural cycle, Arctic sea ice has been growing for eight years.

Do you still expect a new, lower low than 2012 soon?

During its natural downtrend, 1979-2012, Arctic sea ice summer minimum made a new record low at least every five years. Since 2012, not even close.

griff
Reply to  John Tillman
August 12, 2020 12:08 pm

It absolutely has not!

show me some evidence!!

Bob boder
Reply to  John Tillman
August 13, 2020 4:19 am

Griff

so you are saying that the sea ice over the last 8 years hasn’t been higher than 2012?

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Steven Mosher
August 12, 2020 6:46 am

I’d take the bet, but ufortunately I won’t be around to pay out. Sorry, I meant collect.

Bob boder