CLAIM: 100 degrees in Siberia? 5 ways the extreme Arctic heat wave follows a disturbing pattern

This Arctic heat wave has been unusually long-lived. The darkest reds on this map of the Arctic are areas that were more than 14 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in the spring of 2020 compared to the recent 15-year average. Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory

This essay from director of NSIDC, Mark Serreze, is provided for reference. You may remember Serreze who once said “the Arctic is screaming” while botching and then backpedaling on claims of “ice free summers” on the near horizon for the Arctic that never happened. Give it all the consideration it is due. For some perspective, see my article on a previous 100 degree event above the Arctic circle over 100 years ago. By the way, with 24 hours daylight above the Arctic circle, and near 24 hour daylight in Siberia this time of year, (the first day of summer aka the summer solstice) is it any surprise it would get warm? – Anthony


100 degrees in Siberia? 5 ways the extreme Arctic heat wave follows a disturbing pattern

Mark Serreze, University of Colorado Boulder

The Arctic heat wave that sent Siberian temperatures soaring to around 100 degrees Fahrenheit on the first day of summer put an exclamation point on an astonishing transformation of the Arctic environment that’s been underway for about 30 years.

As long ago as the 1890s, scientists predicted that increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would lead to a warming planet, particularly in the Arctic, where the loss of reflective snow and sea ice would further warm the region. Climate models have consistently pointed to “Arctic amplification” emerging as greenhouse gas concentrations increase.

Well, Arctic amplification is now here in a big way. The Arctic is warming at roughly twice the rate of the globe as a whole. When extreme heat waves like this one strike, it stands out to everyone. Scientists are generally reluctant to say “We told you so,” but the record shows that we did.

As director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center and an Arctic climate scientist who first set foot in the far North in 1982, I’ve had a front-row seat to watch the transformation.

Arctic heat waves are happening more often – and getting stuck

Arctic heat waves now arrive on top of an already warmer planet, so they’re more frequent than they used to be.

Western Siberia recorded its hottest spring on record this year, according the EU’s Copernicus Earth Observation Program, and that unusual heat isn’t expected to end soon. The Arctic Climate Forum has forecast above-average temperatures across the majority of the Arctic through at least August.

Arctic temperatures have been rising faster than the global average. This map shows the average change in degrees Celsius from 1960 to 2019. NASA-GISS

Why is this heat wave sticking around? No one has a full answer yet, but we can look at the weather patterns around it.

As a rule, heat waves are related to unusual jet stream patterns, and the Siberian heat wave is no different. A persistent northward swing of the jet stream has placed the area under what meteorologists call a “ridge.” When the jet stream swings northward like this, it allows warmer air into the region, raising the surface temperature.

Some scientists expect rising global temperatures to influence the jet stream. The jet stream is driven by temperature contrasts. As the Arctic warms more quickly, these contrasts shrink, and the jet stream can slow.

Is that what we’re seeing right now? We don’t yet know.

Swiss cheese sea ice and feedback loops

We do know that we’re seeing significant effects from this heat wave, particularly in the early loss of sea ice.

The ice along the shores of Siberia has the appearance of Swiss cheese right now in satellite images, with big areas of open water that would normally still be covered. The sea ice extent in the Laptev Sea, north of Russia, is the lowest recorded for this time of year since satellite observations began.

The loss of sea ice also affects the temperature, creating a feedback loop. Earth’s ice and snow cover reflect the Sun’s incoming energy, helping to keep the region cool. When that reflective cover is gone, the dark ocean and land absorb the heat, further raising the surface temperature.

Sea surface temperatures are already unusually high along parts of the Siberian Coast, and the warm ocean waters will lead to more melting.

The risks of thawing permafrost

On land, a big concern is warming permafrost – the perennially frozen ground that underlies most Arctic terrain.

When permafrost thaws under homes and bridges, infrastructure can sink, tilt and collapse. Alaskans have been contending with this for several years. Near Norilsk, Russia, thawing permafrost was blamed for an oil tank collapse in late May that spilled thousands of tons of oil into a river.

Thawing permafrost also creates a less obvious but even more damaging problem. When the ground thaws, microbes in the soil begin turning its organic matter into carbon dioxide and methane. Both are greenhouse gases that further warm the planet.

In a study published last year, researchers found that permafrost test sites around the world had warmed by nearly half a degree Fahrenheit on average over the decade from 2007 to 2016. The greatest increase was in Siberia, where some areas had warmed by 1.6 degrees. The current Siberian heat wave, especially if it continues, will regionally exacerbate that permafrost warming and thawing.

A satellite image shows the Norilsk oil spill flowing into neighboring rivers. The collapse of a giant fuel tank was blamed on thawing permafrost. Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2020, CC BY

Wildfires are back again

The extreme warmth also raises the risk of wildfires, which radically change the landscape in other ways.

Drier forests are more prone to fires, often from lightning strikes. When forests burn, the dark, exposed soil left behind can absorb more heat and hasten warming.

We’ve seen a few years now of extreme forest fires across the Arctic. This year, some scientists have speculated that some of the Siberian fires that broke out last year may have continued to burn through the winter in peat bogs and reemerged.

A satellite images shows thinning sea ice in parts of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas and wildfire smoke pouring across Russia. The town of Verkhoyansk, normally known for being one of the coldest inhabited places on Earth, reported hitting 100 degrees on June 20. Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory

A disturbing pattern

The Siberian heat wave and its impacts will doubtless be widely studied. There will certainly be those eager to dismiss the event as just the result of an unusual persistent weather pattern.

Caution must always be exercised about reading too much into a single event – heat waves happen. But this is part of a disturbing pattern.

What is happening in the Arctic is very real and should serve as a warning to everyone who cares about the future of the planet as we know it.

[Get our best science, health and technology stories. Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter.]

Mark Serreze, Research Professor of Geography and Director, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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123 thoughts on “CLAIM: 100 degrees in Siberia? 5 ways the extreme Arctic heat wave follows a disturbing pattern

  1. Burning or smoldering peat bogs are well known in Russia – Moscow was under a black plume for years during Catherine the Great’s reign.
    Russian-Ukrainian bio geophysicist Vernadsky has proposed that actual human mastery of fire took place there because, unlike volcanoes and lava or lightning, smoldering peat gave a chance to play and observe fire safely.
    Mankind is that species that plays with fire. It is fitting that Russia has renowned rocket systems.

    India’s Tilak, in Arctic Home of the Vedas, notes that region was actually warmer during the last glaciation.
    Something for the modellers, but again and again the Arctic upends the deck of cards.
    Permafrost was Putin’s reason for sticking with Paris. It is a serious problem. Of course the CO2 lobby will pounce on this like siberian tigers.

      • So we have been emitting substantially less CO2 than even the most extreme proposal for emission reduction schedules for months now and it has no measurable effect on atmospheric CO2 levels. Perhaps anthropogenic CO2 emissions have the inverse effect on the Arctic than what Playstation climatology predicts…

      • OK. GERMANY has renowned rocket systems.

        To be specific, Germany has renowned German rocket systems built in America, and renowned German rocket systems built in Russia.

    • It’s hard to work out what “data” are being referred to here.

      It seems the “warmest May on record” comes from here, where we find it is “reanalysis data” which only goes back to 1980.
      https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-may-2020

      This is based on the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis by computer model but I have yet to find a SINGLE indication of what the input data is. Satellite microwave sounding, land thermometers, meteo balloons ???

      One things for sure actual temperature records are thin on the ground in Siberia.

      https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletin-about-data-and-analysis

      For maps and gridded fields ERA surface air temperature is based on an adjusted version of the data.
      ….
      For maps and gridded fields ERA surface air temperature is based on an adjusted version of the data. In this version surface air temperatures have been adjusted for the period 1979-2013 to compensate for an inadvertent failure in production to utilize observationally-based analyses of the water temperatures of the Great Lakes.
      ….
      Values over sea prior to 2002 were further adjusted by subtracting 0.1°C. This accounted for a change in bias that arose from changing the source of sea-surface temperature analysis.

      Welcome to the Adjustocene.

      So this record for an area of sparse data seems to come from a computer model fed with “corrected” data.

      https://climate.copernicus.eu/investigating-unusually-mild-winter-and-spring-siberia

      An area of western Siberia from 55°N to 75°N and from 60°E to 120°E was examined in detail; this revealed that, in this area, May 2020 was the warmest month in our data record. For ERA5, the largest anomaly within this region was 10°C above average. The green circle shows the location of Tarko-Sale, the weather station measuring the largest anomaly, at 8.8°C above average. At the same location, ERA5 gives a value of 9.2°C above average.

      So they admit that the largest “anomaly” in their model was fully 1.2 deg C hotter than any recorded REAL temperature in the entire area.

      Finally, the C3S team explored how ERA5 compares to one of the stations, Tarko-Sale, in that grid box going back in time.

      Oddly they chose not to plot that comparison.

  2. I love the inexactitude of modern science. Instead of saying that the temperature hit 97 or 98 degrees, we are graced with the much scarier ‘around 100 degrees Fahrenheit’. The linked article gives us a temperature of 38 C. Not 100!!! Always trying to spin spin spin. And I think they got causation and effects reversed. Are they really saying that surface temperatures impact the jet stream? Most suppostion has been that the jet stream impacts weather and temperature on the surface, not the other way around.

    PBH

    • Yea! We haven’t hit 100 F here in my part of Indiana for 5 years. When I was a kid we would typically have a couple 100 F days a summer. Must be global cooling!

    • I hate to break it to you, but 38C = 100.4F. I agree most of this is spin, especially lines like “increasing” but you can’t argue that 38C = 100.4F

    • Of course it isn’t 100F, it’s 100.4F! What’s your point? That it is a little over 100 instead of exactly 100?

  3. “The Arctic is warming at roughly twice the rate of the globe as a whole…”

    Where have we heard that before, I wonder?

    • SMC – “Where have we heard that before”? I remember back around 2010 there were a series of publications that claimed warming was higher than anywhere else. There was only one small region on the planet that wasn’t named by these various reports as not warming faster than anywhere else. I couldn’t wrap my head around x > y > x over 98% of the planet.

      My CAGW friends just shrugged those articles off as anomalous reports. The authors had the right idea, they were just exaggerating slightly. Like Serreze has been doing. Bottom line is that he is basically right, but the details are wrong.

      OK! How do you argue with that? Just throw away the details and scream the meme.

    • I do not believe that comparison includes the 1930’s, so they are using part of a cycle like the Arctic ice from 1979.

  4. I would be interested to see how the GISTEMP data looked for the region prior to homogenization. I am unconvinced the homogenized values give an accurate picture of historical temperature data. I suspect temperatures may have been equally warm or warmer during the 1930s and 1940s.

    • I would be interested to see how the GISTEMP data looked for the region prior to homogenization. I am unconvinced the homogenized values give an accurate picture of historical temperature data. I suspect temperatures may have been equally warm or warmer during the 1930s and 1940s.

      1. I will show you
      A) the raw data
      B) the data after QC
      C) the adjusted data.
      2. Regardless, you will remain unconvinced, because you already have made up your mind.
      3. Your suspicions are wrong.

      care to lay a bet?

      • “3. Your suspicions are wrong.”

        As long as you keep averaging intensive properties, you’ll get that bogus answer.

        • wrong. temperatures are not AVERAGED.
          they are spatially interpolated and integrated.
          the variables integrated is not intensive.
          See Essex

          • So the urban temperatures are spread over huge areas that they don’t apply to

            Thanks for the confirmation.

            Foot out of mouth time, mosh !

        • good meaning that they are all spatially consistent

          what’s that mean.

          In the USA since the records are bad ( huge discontinuous jumps) the jumps have to be corrected. In Russia the records all cohere with each other ( all highly correlated)

          Its math.

          • Fred.

            I started as a math physics major. In grad school my focus was applying statistics to texts.
            The pay to work in defense as a director of operations research was too good.
            nice try though

          • Spreading existing data to cover areas where data doesn’t exist, doesn’t improve the data, it just makes it more speculative.
            When I was in college, they referred to such practices as “making up data”.

      • GHCN.. we know all about that farce !

        You should have used BEST, with its “regional expectations” and all.

        great picture of urban warming though. !

          • “your”

            So much for your literature degree.. FAIL !!

            You know both GISS and GHCN are massively corrupted by unjustified adjustments.

            Or will you lie about that too ?

        • its AMO related. we’ve covered this in our papers.

          next.

          but the poster had a Hypothesis

          About adjustments.

          it was wrong.

          I knew it was wrong because I study the adjustments 1 by 1

          all 27000 series.

          the US sucks.

          Russian is better

          • Hey Steven Mosher, nice to know that the 1940-1980 cooling was AMO related. Did AMO totally stop influencing the arctic temperatures after 1980? Is all of the current warmth caused by CO2 without any AMO influence?

          • “we’ve covered this in our papers.”

            Not interested in your non-science papers.

            Russia is easier to adjust is it ?

          • The cooling from 1940 to 1980 was due to the cool phase of the AMO.
            However according to Steve and the others, the warming that has occurred during the warm phase of the AMO has had no impact on temperatures. CO2 is what done it.

          • Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, rural areas would get subsidies to help them buy fuel to keep warm with. These subsidies were based on the previous years temperature record.
            No incentive there to cool the official record, was there?
            Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the subsidies have ended.

      • Now plot those temperatures vs the number of reporting station and vs the number of urban or rural stations.
        I bet you will not do it.
        Tony Heller can do it.

        • 1. the poster was wrong about adjustments in siberia and now you want to the second fool?
          2. Heller doesnt have an urban rural classification that stands up to scrunity

          there are 194 stations in the area, 13% have a population over 1000.
          8 % of the stations have an urban fraction ( % of land that is urban within 10k of the site)
          greater than 1%. Thats 92% of the stations with less than 1% urban cover within 10km of the site

          Anyway,
          1. you define rural in an objective way.
          2. I have all the data on every station
          A) night lights
          B) population
          C) historical population
          D) the amount of land cover that is urban
          1. 300 meter data
          2. 2 independent 30 meter datasets
          3. a 38 meter dataset that has buildings
          E) a Visual classification of all 27000+ GHCN stations
          F) the change in landscape from rural to urban from 1975 to present

          oh and pay me for doing your homework

          • Your seem to be going anti-science yet again

            Data and measurements shows UHI effect in Arctic town is often very high.

            “The mean wintertime magnitude of these temperature anomalies (the UHI intensity) was found to be between 0.8 K and 1.4 K. Extreme UHI intensities up to 7 K were observed during cold anticyclonic weather conditions”

            https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacb84

            https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006JD007837

            I bet a lot of that GISS warming (apart from “adjustments”) is in winter.

            Summer could also have a large UHI effect in more recent years, do they use reverse cycle air conditioners up there ?

            You do know that a little bit of energy causes a lot of heating in the Arctic, don’t you?

          • https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/17573/2018/

            “The Arctic has rapidly urbanized in recent decades with 2 million people currently living in more than a hundred cities north of 65∘ N”.

            This study reports on the urban temperature anomaly in a typical Arctic city. This persistent warm anomaly reaches up to 11 K in winter with the wintertime mean urban temperature being 1.9 K higher on average in the city center than in the surrounding natural landscape. An urban temperature anomaly, also known as an urban heat island (UHI), was found using remote sensing and in situ temperature data. High-resolution (1 km) model experiments run with and without an urban surface parameterization helped to identify the leading physical and geographical factors supporting a strong temperature anomaly in a cold climate. The statistical analysis and modeling suggest that at least 50 % of this warm anomaly is caused by the UHI effect, driven mostly by direct anthropogenic heating, while the rest is created by natural microclimatic variability over the undulating relief of the area.

          • Odd thing..

            You being the guru you pretend to be, MUST have known about these very large UHI effects in growing Arctic towns.

            Yet there you are trying to distract and lie about the issue.

            One has to seriously question your motivation for such deceit.

    • ” This map shows the average change in degrees Celsius from 1960 to 2019. NASA-GISS”

      Those 60s and 70s when they all feared a new ice age because of falling temperatures. Yes Earth has been warming since then and we should be grateful for that especially the Greta’s and Trudeau’s in this world.

    • Mark Serreze, University of Colorado Boulder:

      A disturbing pattern
      The Siberian heat wave and its impacts will doubtless be widely studied. There will certainly be those eager to dismiss the event as just the result of an unusual persistent weather pattern.

      Well, ….. lordy, lordy, ….. one (1) Artic summer’s worth of an unusual persistent warm weather pattern is not worth getting all “hot n’ bothered”, excited and worried about.

      Even fifteen (15) or one hundred (100) sequentially “hot” Arctic summers shouldn’t get your blood pressure boiling.

      But now, … iffen five thousand (5,000) plus/minus sequentially “hot” Arctic summers didn’t cause any major problems then cease with the “fear mongering” rhetoric, ……. To wit:

      Holocene Treeline History and Climate Change Across Northern Eurasia

      Radiocarbon-dated macrofossils are used to document Holocene treeline history across northern Russia (including Siberia). Boreal forest development in this region commenced by 10,000 yr B.P. Over most of Russia, forest advanced to or near the current arctic coastline between 9000 and 7000 yr B.P. and retreated to its present position by between 4000 and 3000 yr B.P. Forest establishment and retreat was roughly synchronous across most of northern Russia. Treeline advance on the Kola Peninsula, however, appears to have occurred later than in other regions.

      During the period of maximum forest extension, the mean July temperatures along the northern coastline of Russia may have been 2.5° to 7.0°C warmer than modern. The development of forest and expansion of treeline likely reflects a number of complimentary environmental conditions, including heightened summer insolation, the demise of Eurasian ice sheets, reduced sea-ice cover, greater continentality with eustatically lower sea level, and extreme Arctic penetration of warm North Atlantic waters. The late Holocene retreat of Eurasian treeline coincides with declining summer insolation, cooling arctic waters, and neoglaciation.

      http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589499921233

  5. It’s late June, the sun is 47 degrees above the horizon at noon, and shines all day long. It gets really hot, to the surprise of temperate zone dwellers. Forest fires?… No trees up there for the most part….Permafrost? Well the permafrost line has moved from the temperate zone almost to the Arctic circle in the last 80 centuries…resulting in the growth of the boreal forest where used to be glaciers and sequestering gigatons of CO2 in the wood…and 6 months from now when it’s dark and -45 all the time anyone there will be wishing for the return of summer. Sure it’s a couple of degrees warmer than it was in 1850 when explorers first started carrying thermometers with them. -43 instead of -45 is no biggy. 100 F summertime record is pretty close to precious records. Hyper down there eco panic purveyors.

    • If someone cared about climate they would notice the arc of red temperatures corresponds to one of the largest sections of “continental climate” in the world. And what do we know about continental climate? They do not have the stabilizing impact of large bodies of water to warm the winters and cool the summers.
      So sunlight lasting nearly 24 hours in most of the area combined with a huge swath of air that is not moderated by a maritime climate gives us what???

      Anyone??

      Hello??

      I guess common sense does not get headlines the way our “hair is on fire” does.

  6. I wonder how many times the temperature approached 100F 5000 years ago during the mid-Holocene optimum, when trees were flourishing on what today is the tundra?

    • We don’t know. We can’t know. The proxy records have missing links. Enough to drive a blue whale through. And despite beliefs to the contrary, chaos (“evolution”) can be a Dirac function or something similarly narrow. Still, we can assume/assert independence, uniformity, and fidelity, then infill the gaps with brown (“dark”) matter to meet our hopes, dreams, beliefs, and expectations that are within the realm of plausible.

      • It’s a safe bet that it was warm enough for trees to grow in what is now permafrost 5000 years ago was not the result of humans burning fossil fuels.

        What is not known is what those natural forcings were. Also what is not known is if those same forcings are responsible for the current warm period (albeit not as warm as 5000 years ago) with anthropogenic CO2 playing but a miniscule role.

  7. What is odd is that the country which is relatively close to Siberia/Russia has not experienced this phenomenon, i.e. Greenland.
    Perhaps NASA only has a Mercator projection. With a few more grants, they could actually purchase a globe!!!!

    • First off, Greenland isn’t all that close to Siberia/Russia, in fact it’s on the opposite side of the world.
      Second, Greenland has more of a marine climate, being surrounded by water and all that.

      • It’s about 1200 mi from the sunny shores of N Greenland to the balmy N Siberian coast. It is not “on the other side of the world”. Look at the world from the “top”.

    • The reason why Greenland can’t get high temperatures is because the surrounding polar seas/ocean cool the 850hPa temperatures and especially near surface hugely, before they reach the Island. (similar for Iceland too) Greenland also has a high altitude because of glacier ice building up over thousands of years.
      Greenland max record at Maniitoq Mittarfia near Baffin Bay 25.9C (78.6F), Iceland Max record at 30.5 °C (86.9 °F) in the Eastern fjords.

      This is exactly the same reason in reverse why the UK can’t get extremely cold air from Greenland or Canada because the oceans/sea warm the air hugely before they reach the British Isles.

  8. Same ol’ same ol’ song and dance from Marky boy. And a hint of glee, with his “See? Told ya” crowing.

  9. Good news, the world is heating up, finally coming out of the ice age! Long overdue! The biosphere has been suffering for thousands of years under these cold, dry conditions.

  10. As an old school auditor, my first questions would be – have we seen this set of numbers before?
    – how did they come about?
    – is this an effect of the regular business cycle?
    – what were the impacts?
    – is there evidence of malfeasance? By whom?
    – what, if anything, needs to be done to avert a reoccurrence?

    Unless we could provide solid answers to these questions, the board would tell us we weren’t doing our job.
    And if we could not demonstrate any kinds of ‘clear and present danger’ to the organization, we would be told to think about the parable of the boy who cried wolf.

    I believe this parable is appropriate in the article presented here.

  11. That’s old news, soooo 2 weeks ago

    As this article explains, Siberian summers that start very hot tend to then turn cold. (It helps if you read Russian as I do, not as hard to learn as you might think)

    https://www.gismeteo.ru/news/weather/snezhnoe-poholodanie-na-juge-sibiri-video/

    https://www.iceagenow.info/snow-cooling-in-southern-siberia-video/

    If the media bothered to follow up their heat wave story, they would find that now it’s snowing. In July.

  12. Snow and ice are hugely important for maintaining a high albedo, thus reflecting sunlight before it becomes heat. Annual snow cover (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/202001) shows no declining trend, so that is good. However the total temporal and northern area covered by trees has expanded by 7.1% since 1982 (Song, Hansen, et al, ‘Global land change from 1982 to 2016,’, Nature, August 2018). The paper “blames” this 60% on humans (extinguishing forest fires, adding CO2 to encourage growth) and 40% on a warming climate. Trees stick up through the snow, allowing the heat of the winter sun to be absorbed rather than reflected to space. Part of the solution is to let the forests burn longer.

  13. There has been no 38c(100f) recorded/confirmed in Siberia.

    High & Low Weather Summary for the Past Weeks

    High Temperature –36 °C (20 Jun, 19:00)
    Humidity 88% (25 Jun, 04:00)
    Pressure 1017 mbar (25 Jun, 04:00)

    Low Temperature — 9 °C (14 Jun, 04:00)
    15% (27 Jun, 19:00)
    999 mbar (13 Jun, 16:00)
    Average 24 °C ,52%,1008 mbar
    * Reported 13 Jun 07:00 — 28 Jun 07:00, Verkhoyansk. Weather by CustomWeather, © 2020

    June Averages in Verkhoyansk
    High Temp: 19 °C
    Low Temp: 7 °C
    Mean Temp: 13 °C

    July Averages in Verkhoyansk
    High Temp: 22 °C
    Low Temp: 10 °C
    Mean Temp: 16 °C

    These values are not far off Summer temperatures in England that have recorded near or above 100f on occasions.

    June/July Climate & Weather Averages at Benson near Reading, England
    High Temp: 20 °C/High Temp: 22 °C
    Low Temp: 10 °C/Low Temp: 12 °C
    Mean Temp: 15 °C/Mean Temp: 17 °C

    June/July Climate & Weather Averages in Cambridge, England
    High Temp: 20 °C/High Temp: 23 °C
    Low Temp: 12 °C/Low Temp: 14 °C
    Mean Temp: 16 °C/Mean Temp: 19 °C

    There is nothing usual about it because in a place like Siberia there is generally much drier air, so potentially higher and lower temperatures are ranged around the mean.

  14. “with 24 hours daylight above the Arctic circle, and near 24 hour daylight in Siberia this time of year, (the first day of summer aka the summer solstice) is it any surprise it would get warm?”

    The arctic circle is 66.5-23.5=47 degrees below solar zenith.

    1361 * 0.48 * cos(47) = 477.8 W/m^2 => 29.8C

    But that’s just the arctic circle. The more north you go the less insolation there is. 29.8C is the maximum at 66.5 degrees.

    You don’t have enough insolation.

    • Presumably this Siberian warming was geothermal. Maybe a new Siberian Traps flood basalt is cooking? (Like 252 million years ago.) That would be bad – I think?

      • Hatter – you are literally the only other person besides myself that I have seem point out an unexamined elephant in the room the Siberian Trap floods. My hypothesis is that the Siberian Traps are hugely important to understanding both future surface temps and past Ice Age temp and magnetic anomolies.

        It’s an exclusive club that noone seems to be curious about … Perhaps Zoe will explore it’s implications one day.

        Well done, Sir.

      • Uhuh. Do you also believe that when you spread butter on a piece of bread, the original clump remains just thick where you first placed it?

        If hot air is diluted over a larger area, it cools.

        This north Arctic air is just as warm as the locations in the south, even warmer in some cases.

        • Once again, Zoe demonstrates that not only is her math flawed, but her analogies are worse.

          What does spreading butter have to do with atmospheric highs and lows moving air around?

          Whether spreading hot air around causes it to cool depends on what it is mixing into.

          Are you actually going to try and claim that high and low pressure regions don’t move air masses around?
          Have you never heard of the Siberian Express? Have you never experienced a weather front?

          Is there no branch of science that you are not utterly ignorant of?

    • These high temperatures that are not far off record breaking are always from a source further south in the northern hemisphere for regions like Europe, Asia, Russia, and North America for example above the sub-tropics.

      The quicker the originally source of hot air is moved North before being cut off, the higher the temperature likely with 850hPa temperatures.

      A low pressure system to the west of Siberia was dragging hot air North on the 17th June 2020.
      https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=avn&var=2&jaar=2020&maand=06&dag=17&uur=0000&h=0&tr=1440&nmaps=24#mapref

      20th June 20202
      https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=avn&var=2&jaar=2020&maand=06&dag=20&uur=0000&h=0&tr=1440&nmaps=24#mapref

  15. “a big concern is warming permafrost –”

    Like when they found a 2300 year old boot in some thawed permafrost?

    No wonder they are concerned what else might surface. !

    Showing any warming is only bring us closer to the warmer, more human-friendly temperatures of the not too distant past.

  16. Yes, there is a “tipping point” at Siberia.
    The Siberian High in winter defines the world’s weather – and climate.
    It is VERY fragile.
    This winter it was absent – alas. Is it away for good?
    Do not forget: the ice age was in Europe and North America.
    Siberia was free from ice during the ice age.
    It would be a big mistake to underestimate this “tipping point”.
    WHY did we arrive at this bifurcation in the Earth’s nonlinear climate system – is a very different question, but we are right here.

    • “Do not forget: the ice age was in Europe and North America.
      Siberia was free from ice during the ice age.”

      Spot on. Again as per my previous posts on Siberia – almost nobody apppears to understand that the heat signal out of the Siberian Traps and Artic synchonising with cold signals out of the reast of the Northern Hemisphere & solar minimum may well be sympotoms (the causes are very different) of Ice Age tipping points, and not of Global Warming. Russian solar science has hypothesised this for several decades.

    • The changes in the jet stream are result of the very low sun activity, the more than low UV radiation, the shrinking of the thermosphere cooling down, look Lockwoods papers, there are several.

  17. I’m reminded of the myriad of news stories in the past year or so claiming that Australia, Canada, Singapore, China, Finland, Sweden, Russia, Britain, Japan and all of Europe are warming “twice as fast as the average.”
    No specification as to what “average” means.
    No specification as to how the “average” amount of warming is calculated.
    No acknowledgement that land warms faster than ocean or that the world is 70% ocean and 30% land.
    No acknowledgement that the tropics warms slower than the higher latitudes.

  18. All this does not explain why people like Maurice Strong went to the UN to create the fear of CO2 and global warming- right after the global cooling scare fizzled. Nor does it explain past temperature variations. Just a simple and again pathetic attempt to instill fear of change.
    And what makes these great prognosticators so sure the “right” climate exists now?
    Warming is good – CO2 is is necessary. Fear and taxes are bad.
    Autocratic government is always evil. Know your history people!

  19. “As long ago as the 1890s, scientists predicted that increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would lead to a warming planet”

    In the 1890s Arrhenius was trying to explain glaciation cycles with atmos co2 but he failed to do so. That explanation came about 20 years later from Milankovitch and it has nothing to do with CO2. It was not until 1938 that Callendar published the world’s first co2 global warming paper with reference to the 38-year warming trend 1900-1938 and 7 years later it turned into a 30 year cooling trend 1945-1975.

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/18/arrhenius/

  20. Anyone recall the Great Moscow Heatwave of 2010? Caused by low solar activity during the solar minimum – via jet stream blocking. What are we now in? The next even deeper solar minimum. Déjà vu all over again.

  21. glaciation cycles… explanation came about 20 years later from Milankovitch and it has nothing to do with CO2

    The alt-hypothesis was plausible, profitable, and well suited – designed, even – to exploit for social, political, and economic leverage.

    • Maybe they are right ? Maybe minus5c is 8*c above average? But claiming that to be ‘wildly high’, is painting a distorted picture.

  22. Sure, this warming will have these AGW modelers working hard on seeing how to fit such a hot spot signature in their models,
    which suck… the models that make the bases of Paris accord or whatever.

    Do such events that do not fit in the models actually, maybe raise more doubts about the claim of models predicting climate or climate change!
    Last time I checked, the tropical hot spot still happens to be the expected AGW signature, not the polar one.

    cheers

  23. All this hoo haa about the perma frost melting the peat burning and the organic matter in the soil producing CO2. One only needs a small amount of logic to conclude that vegetation was growing there once before it got cold.

    I can only hope that the world warms back up to what it once was.Much more productive and more comfortable for everybody.


  24. Paul Homewood has pointed out the claimed record of 38 °C for 20 June has been removed, perhaps for checking (see image and link below).


    <br /><br /><br /> <br />https://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnRSM00024266.dat<br /><br />


    The highest (verified) temperature at Verhojansk is currently 37.3 °C on 25 July 1988.


    Additionally, the highest (verified) temperature for the Arctic is 37.8 °C, which was set in in Alaska in 1915. If the new record is verified it would mean 0.2 °C increase in more than 100 years – not much to be worried about.

  25. yakukst still will be -40c in the winter
    …not saving for a dacha there anytime soon. Although I do own a dacha in lipetsk.

  26. The question I have is was there a similar destruction of the permafrost, a so-called “methane bomb”, during the Holocene warming, an event which lasted thousands of year, and featuring temperatures warmer than today’s? The current permafrost is less than 6000 years old, some of it far younger.

    • No, and there was none duing the previous interglacial when temperatures in NE Sibeia was TEN degrees warmer than now (NB Celsius degrees, not Fahrenheit)

      • Thanks for replying …I figured that, but it’s kind of a great unmentionable. Their prognoses are ahistorical to say the least.

  27. Relatively NO

    AIR

    TRAFFIC

    I’ve never seen such clear skies in June thus far, for 20 years.

    That whole mess that contrails create, leaving the sky a mess of silvery cloud cover, has been absent.
    The last time I remember a sky like that for that period was almost 30 years ago.

  28. In Siberia summers that start hot tend to turn cold later:

    https://www.gismeteo.ru/news/weather/snezhnoe-poholodanie-na-juge-sibiri-video/

    Here’s the translation:

    A hot start of summer is regularly interrupted by sharp short cold snap. For example, in Novosibirsk on June 4–6, the average daily temperature dropped to +10. A similar strong cooling occurred last weekend. At night, the thermometer showed +5, frosts were noted in some places. Snow fell in the Sayan Mountains.

    Original Russian:

    Жаркое начало лета периодически прерывается острыми короткими похолоданиями. Например, в Новосибирске 4–6 июня среднесуточная температура понижалась до +10. Аналогичное сильное похолодание произошло в минувшие выходные. Ночью столбик термометра показал +5, местами отмечались заморозки. В Саянах выпал снег.

    So heat wave followed by cold snap and snow. In July. Guess which one the media publicizes? Guess which one they ignore.

  29. “The ice along the shores of Siberia has the appearance of Swiss cheese right now in satellite images, with big areas of open water that would normally still be covered.”

    Now if that was due to the heatwave in Siberia, you might expect that the ice along the coast would have melted, but not the ice offshore. But it is the other way around:

    http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/latest/4km/masie_all_r04_4km.png

    What you have here is what is called a “landråk” in Swedish (I don’t think there is a English word for it). There is fast ice along the shore, while southerly winds moves the sea-ice offshore, leaving open water in between.

  30. 30 years is nothing in Earth’s climate history. This one is from roughly 60 year cycle of the almost 20 year lap cycle of Jupiter and Saturn roughly coinciding with the NH summer solstice. e.g. 1901, 1961, 2020.
    It does not seem to happen the same with the SH summer solstice as that coincides with their oppositions about every 60 years, e.g. 1930, 1989, 2050.

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