Annnnnnd…another Canadian polar bear subpopulation is increasing

Posted on May 31, 2020 |

In case you missed it buried in the details of my rebuttal two weeks ago about Facebook labeling a short PragerU polar bear video as “false information”, in his review of the video (18 May 2020) Canadian polar bear biologist Ian Stirling revealed that a recent survey of M’Clintock Channel polar bears documented a population increase. The problem is we have no scientific details about the survey – apparently completed four years ago, in 2016 – because the final report has not been made public (COSEWIC 2018, pp. 42-43; Crockford 2020).

bear-on-snowbank_Radstock_Stirling

Stirling stated in the review:

“…a couple [subpopulations] are doing OK, such as Foxe Basin and Davis Straight, and one seems to be increasing (M’Clintock Channel).

This good news about M’Clintock Channel is not a huge surprise: in 2019, the Polar Bear Specialist Goup assessed the M’Clintock Channel population in 2019 as ‘very likely increased’ since the previous estimate calculated in 2006 (Taylor et al. 2006) but without any recent publication cited to support that determination.

Taylor et al. 2006 M'Clintock Channel polar bears fig 1

Clearly, the revised status of M’Clintock Channel polar bears has been known within the polar bear research community since at least September 2019 (when the PBSG status table was publish online) but the report has been withheld from the public and the rest of the scientific community. Despite the good news and with all due respect to lead researcher Markus Dyck, polar bear population estimates are infrequent enough without it taking more than four years to complete a report.

NOTE: See previous post here Global polar bear population larger than previous thought – almost 30,000

(discusses the polar bear subpopulation estimates that were not
included in the 2015 IUCN Red List assessment because they had not yet
been published, which will now have to be adjusted to include the
M’Clintock Channel numbers, whenever those are made public)

References

Crockford, S.J. 2020. State of the Polar Bear Report 2019. Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 39, London. PDF here.

COSEWIC. 2018. COSEWIC assessment and status report on the Polar Bear Ursus maritimus in Canada. Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. Ottawa. PDF here.

Taylor, M.K., Laake, J., McLoughlin, P.D., Cluff, H.D., and Messier, F. 2006. Demography parameters and harvest-explicit population viability analysis for polar bears in M’Clintock Channel, Nunavut, Canada. Journal of Wildlife Management 70:1667-1673. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2193/0022-541X%282006%2970%5B1667:DPAHPV%5D2.0.CO;2/abstract

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70 thoughts on “Annnnnnd…another Canadian polar bear subpopulation is increasing

  1. What’s the old saying “Bad news circles the globe while good news is getting it’s shoes on” Always.

    • What about the seals? This is not good news for them. It was only 13000 years ago that all of Canada was under a massive ice pack….the mega fauna were about to have a very bad day….what happened to the bears then?

  2. Maybe it takes 4+ years to publish the results ‘cos the Polar Bears ate the results.
    Maybe they ate the researcher as well.

    • That’s what it is Oldseadog, they finished eating all of the penguins and now have turned on the people.

      • It’s just the balance of nature; as polar bear population increases, polar bear field researcher population decreases.

  3. From the link:

    “despite the dramatic loss of summer sea ice since 2007 that we hear about endlessly.”

    There has been no dramatic loss of summer sea ice since 2007. In fact, there’s a slight increase which, I suspect will manifest itself even more this September.

    • https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20100218.html

      Note the publication date: Feb. 2010

      PASADENA, Calif. – In 2007, the Arctic lost a massive amount of thick, multiyear sea ice, contributing to that year’s record-low extent of Arctic sea ice. A new NASA-led study has found that the record loss that year was due in part to the absence of “ice arches,” naturally-forming, curved ice structures that span the openings between two land points. These arches block sea ice from being pushed by winds or currents through narrow passages and out of the Arctic basin.

    • I didn’t cherry pick. I used the 2007 date from the link, but then comprehension skills aren’t your strong point are they?

      • That is the very definition of cherry pick.

        Cherry picking is the act of pointing at individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position.

        The trend line clearly slows a decline.

        • My my, you’re having a very bad “comprehension” day today aren’t you?

          I didn’t write ” the dramatic loss of summer sea ice since 2007″, I responded to it and refuted it, so pretty much exactly the opposite of a cherry pick.

          I would say you’re also having a pretty bad “deflection” day too, given where you’re posting and the fact that your deflection after you f-kd up on your comprehension is rather obvious to all.

          Hint 1 – summer sea ice

          Hint 2 – 2007

          • Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns
            By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:40 PM GMT on April 02, 2012

            Earth has seen some highly unusual weather patterns over the past three years, and three new studies published this year point to Arctic sea loss as a potential important driver of some of these strange weather patterns. The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled “Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall”, was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. “Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. “The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents.”

            Read more here:
            https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/arctic-sea-ice-loss-tied-to-unusual-jet-stream-patterns.html

          • Jack Dale June 1, 6:00pm Pacific

            It’s in the sea ice sidebar here on this site. Scroll down to the graph entitled ICE-EXT , NORSEX SMMR/SSMI

          • Right, so global warming causes more cold weather.

            The problem is, we haven’t seen anything unusual. And three years? Please.

            Do you expect the climate anywhere to be static, never changing??

          • Science can be counter-intuitive. Pay attention to the jet stream. It is slowing down and meandering.

            BTW – Tony Heller noticed increased snowfall and colder temperatures.

        • Not to pile on, but the trend line appears to be a slope of about 45 degrees to illustrate about a ten percent decline over a forty year period. Note that the y-axis starts at 13 and only goes up to 16.

          It may be trending down, on average, y-o-y, but dramatic? At that rate, how long will it take to hit zero?

  4. Just curious why results of the research should take 4+ years to be made available?
    Are they *that* slow at writing their paper?

    Just wondering from the Almost Frozen North.

    • Simple enough…
      The results are being embargoed until such time as a reassessment of the data can be made in an effort to try and make the data fit the desired narrative
      RDCV…The SPIN DOCTOR has a hold of it

    • Brain death from COVID-19 is the only logical answer.

      I know, I know, the SARS-CoV-2 virus goes for the lungs, and that still works, because prolonged hypoxia causes brain death.

      … and combined with all that HUGE increase in atmospheric CO2, … well, … it’s the perfect storm for stupid delaying tactics.

      • Robert K

        Covid-19 is a disease of the lungs but SARS-Cov-2 is a disease of the epithelial cells and red blood cells. This misdiagnosis as a lung disease has killed thousands of people unnecessarily. After creating havoc by attacking the ACE2 receptor pathway, the body responds with a cytokine storm which causes the lung damage.

        The modelers of the disease impact were working on a misdiagnosis from the beginning.

        If you have lung problems caused by the cytokine storm, inhale hydrogen gas at 5% concentration. It turns them into water, essentially. Takes less than 8 hrs.

  5. Great, now the seals and walruses are at risk because of [catastrophic] [anthropogenic] climate cooling… warming…change. That said, apparently, thirty-years follows a chaotic path (“evolution”).

  6. “Despite the dramatic loss of doomsday propaganda media can exploit, polar bears are thriving.”

    A normal wildlife lover like yours truly, interprets this as good news. Western civ haters, and Fundraisers for Flogging view this news as cause for despair.

  7. Off topic, but I just noticed that the WUWT Search is totally non-functional. I was doing a simple search for a common topic and came up with nothing. I then tried several other searches for topics or words I know are common at WUWT, with no results returned.

  8. If pretending the increase in population is not happening by failing to publish a full report on the population, then the following strategies are available from other areas of climate research:

    Select an appropriate casually related measurement that can be used to adjust the polar bear data, such as increasing seal population, which of course means that bear numbers are falling. Alternatively use bristlecone pine ring thickness, that always works.

    If this doesn’t work, homogenize the polar bear data with areas where no polar bears currently live, Antarctica should serve this purpose admirably.

    As a last resort, the population will need to be physically adjusted, such that it matches the prediction.

  9. This past weekend I saw an ad on TV from WWF asking for people to adopt a polar bear.
    For $8 a month I guess you get a picture of your bear along with its location, family history, education history and current economic status. You also get a once a month letter from the bear thanking your for providing food and shelter and for saving it’s life . Maybe you also get a certificate suitable for framing.

    • Tom, I always thought people were told, “DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!” Why is a wildlife group feeding them? Also, what kinds of shelters are they building for the polar bears, igloos? Come to think of it, why do polar bears need shelters anyway?
      Makes one wonder who the money is really feeding and sheltering.

    • And Dr. Susan Crockford, blogger of polarbearscience.scom, lost her job at the University of Victoria.

      • Crockford was an unpaid adjunct professor in anthropology. Her stated area of expertise is the evolution of dogs.

        “An adjunct professorship is an unpaid position with a few responsibilities that in return allow a scholar to operate as a qualified member of the academic community, such as making applications for research funding. However, an adjunct has no rights. Adjunct status must be renewed every three years or so, at the discretion of the individual department. I was first appointed as an adjunct in the Department of Anthropology in 2004, shortly after I had successfully defended my Ph.D. dissertation at UVic.”

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/16/uvic-bows-to-outside-pressure-and-rescinds-my-dr-susan-crockford-adjunct-professor-status/

        • A typically misleading bromide against Doctor (Zoology degree) Crockford.

          Ooops, she has a doctorate in Zoology, thus can indeed follow Polar Bear research.

          Britannica

          Zoology

          Excerpt:

          Zoology, branch of biology that studies the members of the animal kingdom and animal life in general. It includes both the inquiry into individual animals and their constituent parts, even to the molecular level, and the inquiry into animal populations, entire faunas, and the relationships of animals to each other, to plants, and to the nonliving environment.

          https://www.britannica.com/science/zoology

          • Thanks for sharing. Could you link me to some actual published research of Susan Crockford’s? I see all this stuff on her blog, but can’t seem to locate anything that’s been fact-checked and validated for publication, at least not by any accredited scientific foundation or organization in any developed country anywhere on the face of the planet. Any additional info you could supply would be terrific. Thanks

  10. Antarctic sea ice extent tracked close to the median line from mid-March until the first week of April when the rate of growth fell below the median rate and the trend returned to the lower end of the observed 41-year range. However, it remained within the interdecile range. Sea ice extent is near average in most sectors, but is slightly below average in the Ross Sea, parts of the Weddell Sea, and off the coast of Dronning Maud Land.
    – nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews

  11. At the end of the day there is no “need” for a species to exist forever, and the idea is so idiotic as to cause despair in any rational human being. Anyone who understands the natural history of our planet knows this. Imagining a species existing in a vacuum, in perpetuity like some kind of museum specimen, is no different from imagining the climate shouldn’t change and must remain stable – stable by our current definition, of course.

    Nature is unimaginably brutal and disposes of its inhabitants in all the horrific ways urban dwellers don’t want to think about constantly, an endless torrent of death on an enormous scale, up to and including extinction, and always has, and always will. Photogenicity is no guarantor of survival, the wishes of environmentalist pinheads notwithstanding, and so the polar bear will one day be no more.

    One day we may too be no more, but the odds of our long-term survival as a species are far greater than most thank to our ability to transform our environment, insulate ourselves from its depredations, treat injury and disease, and continually develop our understanding of our bodies’ processes – environmentalist pinheads’ wishes to the contrary notwithstanding, may they and all their human-hating ilk rot in the lowest dungeons of Hell.

  12. However, the ice edge remained more extensive than average for this time of year in the Barents Sea between Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya, as well as in the northern East Greenland Sea. Ocean heat transport has been a good predictor of winter sea ice variability in this general region. Over the past five years, ocean temperatures have cooled in this area because of a smaller transport of warm Atlantic water from the North Atlantic. Thus, it is not surprising that the winter ice cover in this region has slowly returned from near-average to slightly above-average conditions.

    • America is auto-cannibalizing, and people are worried about polar bears? The stupid, it burns.

      Screw polar bears. Just in case I didn’t make myself clear enough.

        • Screw walri sp? too. It occurs to me that Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh, must’ve been over the moon when he heard about coronavirus, since he’s on record saying that if he could be reincarnated it would be as a killer virus to reduce the human population.

          Must be feeling very disappointed now, the thought of which just brightened my morning considerably.

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