Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The recent Mothers Day Freeze which smashed cold records across the Midwest, East and South has not deterred Northern Illinois University from making an end of snow prediction.
Climate change could dramatically reduce U.S. snowstorms
by Northern Illinois University
MAY 26, 2020A new study led by Northern Illinois University scientists suggests American winters late this century could experience significant decreases in the frequency, intensity and size of snowstorms.
Under an unabated greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the study projects 28% fewer snowstorms on average per year over central and eastern portions of North America by the century’s last decade, with one-third the amount of snow or frozen precipitation and a 38% loss in average snowstorm size.
“If we do little to mitigate climate change, the winter season will lose much of its punch in the future,” said Walker Ashley, an NIU professor of meteorology and lead author of the study, published today (May 25) in Nature Climate Change.
“The snow season will start later and end earlier,” Ashley said. “Generally, what we consider an abnormally mild winter now, in terms of the number and intensity of snowstorms, will be the harshest of winters late this century. There will be fewer snowstorms, less overall precipitation that falls as snow and almost a complete removal of snow events in the southern tier of the United States.“
…
The study is believed to be the first to objectively identify and track individual snowstorm projections of the distant future—from minor snow accumulations, to average winter storms, to crippling blizzards.
…
Read more: https://phys.org/news/2020-05-climate-snowstorms.html
The abstract of the study;
Reduced frequency and size of late-twenty-first-century snowstorms over North America
Walker S. Ashley, Alex M. Haberlie & Vittorio A. Gensini
Nature Climate Change (2020) Cite this article
Understanding how snowstorms may change in the future is critical for estimating impacts on water resources and the Earth and socioeconomic systems that depend on them. Here we use snowstorms as a marker to assess the mesoscale fingerprint of climate change, providing a description of potential changes in winter weather event occurrence, character and variability in central and eastern North America under a high anthropogenic emissions pathway. Snowstorms are segmented and tracked using high-resolution, snow water equivalent output from dynamically downscaled simulations which, unlike global climate models, can resolve important mesoscale features such as banded snow. Significant decreases are found in the frequency and size of snowstorms in a pseudo-global warming simulation, including those events that produce the most extreme snowfall accumulations. Early and late boreal winter months show particularly robust proportional decreases in snowstorms and snow water equivalent accumulations.
Read more (paywalled): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0774-4
Climate alarmists just can’t seem to help themselves. Their most extreme models might hindcast absurdity, but climate alarmists choose to believe in their models anyway, so they follow where their models lead.
“Here we use snowstorms as a marker to assess the mesoscale fingerprint of climate change, providing a description of potential changes in winter weather event occurrence, character and variability in central and eastern North America under a high anthropogenic emissions pathway.”
Shorter: If we assume global warming there will be less snow.
Well, duh!
Old.George said, “Shorter: If we assume global warming there will be less snow.”
Except when there’s more snow, which can be blamed on global warming, too, because there’s more water vapor in the atmosphere due to global warming. Gotcha both ways.
Stay safe and healthy, all.
Bob
I was hoping that similar and more up-to-date graphs would appear in this article. This is on the extreme weather page of WUWT:
– JPP
Increase your value by making simple tasks complicated:
Northern Illinois University would not gain from extrapolate the trend you pointed out, they prefer prefer the more flexible hindcast from the virtual future reality.
This technique profits from being much more complex and “scientific”, and will appeal to the Green investment, whereas a simple extrapolation of actual historic data can be done by a 5th grader.
So Northern Illinois University shouldn’t look at past data from 1967 to help predict the future – just rely on their NIU models
There are a lot of other graphs which show pretty much the same data.
Maybe they should get some input from the 5th grader.
Just sayin…
– JPP
there’s a rule in climate science….all predictions must be at least 50 years out
“late this century “
“The study projects 28% fewer snowstorms on average.” That could only be right if snowstorms were beneficial. Climate change is always for worse.
But think of all the tow truck drivers whose livelihoods will be threatened, like polar bears.
Think of the children . . .
“Children just won’t know what a Flexible Flyer is.”
I know, right, who’d seriously send their kids to Northern Illinois University?! https://www.daily-chronicle.com/2020/01/30/niu-first-college-in-illinois-to-eliminate-sat-act-scores-from-college-applications/am76bp2/
Think of all the children the tow truck drivers will have . . .
Models again. And “… under a high anthropogenic emissions pathway” means RPC 8.5?
Less snow and warmer winters mean fewer deaths
Winning!!!
Presumably Dr David Viner is a consultant or maybe Director of Studies
Thanks for the links, Krishna Gans.
Stay safe and healthy, all.
Bob
At midwinter the snow pack was 18% above average.
Of course, Crispin, a paper will come out showing that 18% has to be due to Global Warming.
Okay, in response I’ll set up my save lists for snow gear, winter clothes, and snow removal equipment. Betting the other way with informed science and taxpayer funded global data systems against agenda science and promotion is the plan. I can also read charts of medium and long term ocean temp cycles and solar cycles in a world that has apparently lost this skill.
:“If we do little to mitigate climate change, the winter season will lose much of its punch in the future,” said Walker Ashley, an NIU professor of meteorology and lead author of the study, published today (May 25) in Nature Climate Change.” So what happens if we do a lot to mitigate climate change? That’s if you believe in a warming climate change , so another addmission that climate change is a warming change,hence as you believe no snow, but your forecasting ahead by some 60 years, has not the last 3 winters in the USA seen record cold and snow, oh I get it previous predictions that we would see no snow again and the poles would of melted were wrong ,so now your extending the time frame by some 60 years , no addmission to this failed prediction but you will chuck another one in for good measure.
Of course this is convenient as a looming GSM is rolling in , no predictions for snow accumulations in the near future,not some 60 years into a hazy future. Another source of data disappearing.remove the data remove the predictions ( near future) no one to carry the can.
Maybe by that time, I can move back to Indiana from Florida and not freeze my a$$ off.
DonK31 . Hey all is good in Indiana, but it was a cold spring. Cutting grass three times a week in Indy.
There are still ‘scientists’ in the UK warning that ‘any day now’ we will see a dramatic uptick in BSE, with thousands of people dying form the disease. Of course the govt. needs to take action now to prepare for this for this imminent disaster.
Eat bugs, EU tells it’s healty 😀
Yes that number of BSE deaths was forecast by none other than Ferguson from Imperial – using his really reliable modeling skills
Well, we have seen a dramatic uptick in BS, have we not?
I think we have reached peak BS.
BS cannot reach a peak.
Yes there was an uptick on the BSE, (Bombay Stock Exchange), recently, but I think that’s really a good thing
O G … Now CC will make Less Severe weather as well
“pseudo-global warming simulations” projected to the 2090’s? Northern Illinois? This is delusional self-importance on a ludicrous scale. They can’t predict the weather next week and they can predict the climate change in the 2090’s? Beam me up Scotty, there’s no intelligent life on this planet! Doubt me? What does the autopsia of George Floyd say? No done yet, you say? You can’t ell this by watching CNN (please don’t goof on me-it’s the only English channel I get). Stay sane and safe (even if there is insanity all around you!).
“in a pseudo-global warming simulation”
…… just about says it all. Is today “Honesty Friday”?
Better to wait to verify the unsubstantiated unverifiable models at the end of the current century before spending any money… otherwise this is no different than Club of Rome predictions.
Sell those snowplows now while you still can.
Again, portraying RCP 8.5 as Most Likely scenario. Tip-off in description as “high anthropogenic emissions pathway”. Junk science. We ran a model.
Yes,”Under an unabated greenhouse gas emissions scenario…” RCP 8.5 strikes again!!!
If you watch close, if they are studying something “bad” they use rcp8.5
If they are studying increased plant growth due to CO2 they use the minimum level
Sure, why not. The distribution of PhDs, stipends, and other secular incentives are enough to sustain the rational, and plausible, if not actual chaos (“evolution”). Statistical inference interprets facts as truths, with accuracy limited by characterization of a proper frame of reference, assumptions, assertions, axioms, etc.
“In all cases, there were significant decreases in both seasonal snowstorm counts (k = 1.0, P < 0.001) and SWE totals (k = 0.92, P < 0.001) from the CTRL to PGW simulation.”
These climate science guys don’t read the same journals I do. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2015.09.010
“The necessity of reporting the results of regression diagnostics is stressed; contrary to widespread practice in marine ecology, R2 and p-values alone do not provide sufficient evidence to form conclusions.”
It don’t matter, warming causes more storms that causes more warming and so on ad infinitum~~~~~~~~
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/1920849117
Thirty-years or it’s weather. Also, fractional anomalies, inference, consensus, brown matter, really?
the winter season will lose much of its punch in the future,”
Is that supposed to be a bad thing???
Grew up in Philly–have lived in Texas (mostly) since 1964. Couldn’t stand those black piles of plowed snow where cars would normally park lasting sometimes (back then) well into March
Make sure you save this paper so that our grandchildren (or great great grandchildren) can wave it in their faces in 2090
Here in Oz we are rolling into winter and are having a bumper snow season which started back just after easter (not uncommon in my experience). This comes straight off the back of a record dry spell then the horrific bushfires of last spring and summer. Similarly the Murray-Darling river basin is full of water again for the first time in quite a while. No endless drought, no ‘our kids will never know what snow is’ etc. The common factor, besides cyclical weather patterns? Green loon predictions of climate disaster and no more rain etc. The facts are that Oz has had a trend over the last century or so of increasing rainfall except for SW Western Australia and Tasmania which are most affected by the Southern Ocean systems.
On a rtating planet, orbited by a moon and in turn orbiting a sun in company of a set of other planets, asteroids and other solar system detritus down to dust size particles at a whole range of periodicities and setting up all sorts of gravitational and other interactions is it any great wonder that the weather, which is a giant dynamic fluid system, exhibits cycles within cycles etc like the surface of the ocean with its spectrum of waves forming the sea state or is that too sciency for the eco loons?
Warmists/alarmists can models anything, no wonder their thinking and answers are modeled based replies.
They live in a matrix believing to live in the real world 😀
Rational, even plausible, impractical and incongruent with reality in their established frame of reference.
These ridiculous predictions need to be mirrored on their own page perhaps. Sorted by Date/facility.
OK…Less snow means less disruption to the economy, less salt on the roads, less snowplowing, fewer floods, and likely a drop in people dying from cold…Yup, that’s really scary.
Shorter snow season means longer growing season, more food and crops, and less energy used to try and stay warm…equally scary.
They have convinced me…bring on global warming!
But, but, but – less skiing, and lost jobs at the resorts. And, more importantly, if it becomes widespread, less snowpack in the Sierras, and California goes into a prolonged drought.
But it is California.
The only problem would be Californians leaving and Cali-fornicating the politics of other states.
We’ll need to build another wall.
Who said ‘less rain?’
I didn’t read the paper but to me this appears to be a good result projection. You don’t see many of those. Yes, I’m sure the media will find ways to spin it as bad, but clearly less cold and snow will mean less accidents on our highways, fewer pot holes, a longer growing season, less disease, etc. Isn’t this actually good news?
Not if it is forced through anthropogenic carbon dioxide… carbon emissions. Recall that the goal of Greens, environmentalists, and moderates is to decarbonize the economy. Cooling then warming then climate change are merely em-pathetic appeals.
Less snow at the end of this century???
Who here is gonna be around in 80 years to fact check this lie?
The climate scam now depends on such lies being long forgotten.
No longer are they making 20 year out climate divinations that can get falsified within people’s professional career spans.
I guess we should ignore this graph eh.
On the chance that the projection is correct, one question: Are those who inhabit northern climes at the end of this century expected to be upset?
“climate alarmists choose to believe in their models anyway”
That’s because climate modelers are not scientists and have no idea how to evaluate the reliability of their own models.
Models that are, in any case, predictively useless.
These people blithely continue on because they pay no price for their incompetence. Modelers don’t even know they’re incompetent.
The cure is to stop the money-flow. Utterly. It’s the only way.
By definition, pseudo is anything pretended, not real.
So they admit a simulation based on pretend, not real global warming.
I hope they were funded with pseudo grants.
Don’t they ever get tired of being WRONG?
LOL.
“Climate change could dramatically reduce U.S. snowstorms”
COULD???
Greta explains.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/24/greta3/
An admonition from the past:
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/6/19/here-come-de-heap-big-warmy.html
From the Phys.org article on this so-called study:
“”There could be benefits in some areas, such as for air and road transportation systems,” Ashley said. “But there also could be serious negative consequences, especially for freshwater resource-dependent industries such as agriculture, recreation, refining, manufacturing, power generation and river and lake transport.”
Why do they think less snow will cause serious negative consequences for any of these industries? Less snow doesn’t mean less precipitation. The study says this decrease in snow will occur in late fall land early spring for the most part. By those points in time the freshwater supplies will have already been mostly determined for these industries by summer and fall precipitation. Snowfall on winter crops like winter wheat primarily provide a protective cover from winter cold. If winter is not as cold then there is less need for snowfall!
This is exactly the type of study Freeman Dyson warned against. The *true* impact of climate change requires a holistic study, not a study of just one factor. The climate is determined by many factors. If these factors are not compiled as a holistic whole then the studies are worthless for predictive conclusions!
Don’t just tell us we are going to have less winter snow. Tell us if this means we will have wetter or dryer springs as well. Tell us if we are going to have longer growing seasons or shorter growing seasons. Tell us what sub-soil moisture will be in the early spring. Tell us what sub-soil temperatures will be in the early spring.
*THEN* perhaps we can judge what the actual change in climate will bring!
It’s been known since forever that regional climate models have no predictive power, including when they’re downscaled from global models.
In Nature Climate Change, the very same journal as the above supposed prediction, we have this warning:
D. Maraun, et al., (2017) Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations N.C.C. 7, 764–773, here.
Abstract: Biases [that is, errors, mistakes, and wrongnesses — P] in climate model simulations introduce biases [that is, errors, mistakes, and wrongnesses — P] in subsequent impact simulations. Therefore, bias correction methods are operationally used to post-process regional climate projections. However, many problems have been identified, and some researchers question the very basis of the approach. Here we demonstrate that a typical cross-validation is unable to identify improper use of bias correction. Several examples show the limited ability of bias correction to correct and to downscale variability, and demonstrate that bias correction can cause implausible climate change signals. Bias correction cannot overcome major model errors, and naive application might result in ill-informed adaptation decisions. We conclude with a list of recommendations and suggestions for future research to reduce, post-process, and cope with climate model biases.(my bold)
“ill-informed adaptation decisions” indeed. Read it and weep, Walker S. Ashley, Alex M. Haberlie, and Vittorio A. Gensini
When some paper says there’ll be less snow in some region, based on projections of some regional climate model, even the authors of the paper know that it’s all just speculative bushwah.
One wonders whether the editors of Nature Climate Change suffer from cognitive dissonance.
How do you correct for uncertainty? If you make two runs of the same model and get two different answers but both are within the uncertainty interval then how do you even evaluate what bias to correct? What do you cross-correlate with? Another model? Again, if each have an uncertainty interval and the difference between the two is within that interval then how do you even evaluate what bias to correct?
To me it’s like a physicist saying “If I fudge Planck’s Constant just a smidge then my space-time calculation comes out right” Huh? How do you know what “right” is?
Poor Dr. Viner it appears, was simply ahead of his time.
within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is”
It does sound like the alleged researchers above took the previous decades old “end-of-snow” prediction, changed a few words, extended when their forecast is valid then proclaimed the same nonsense.
If these researchers are so good, they should be able to accurately predict next year’s snow levels.
I was always taught about “weasel” words. Could, can and might. Meaningless waffle.
Weasel words are part and parcel of Science, necessary limiters, and always have been. But, as you add more and more weasel words, a paper’s significance becomes thinner and thinner, until it says nothing at all, an empty publication, a phantom canid baying at the moon.
Will Illinois still be a viable state late this century?
…not viable NOW!
Claiming an almost complete removal of snow events from southern states sure is a low hanging fruit…
since that’s what we call “normal” down here.
If there actually is less cold weather, it will be a benefit for the health of all life, plants, animals, and humans. Did that get included in the article?
Mosh will tell you that the consensus of science and projections is that some will get more snow, some will get less, and some will stay the same.
Meanwhile here in the U P we are under a freeze warning for tomorrow night……
“…Reduced frequency and size of late-twenty-first-century snowstorms over North America…”
They even specifically mention reduced size of snowfall events the eastern US. But…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/26/with-climate-change-washington-may-have-entered-era-more-blockbuster-snowstorms-less-snow-overall/
“…With climate change, Washington may have entered era of more blockbuster snowstorms but less snow overall…”
More blockbuster snowstorms seems like an increase in size….funny how that works…
‘The study is believed to be the first to objectively identify and track individual snowstorm projections of the distant future—from minor snow accumulations, to average winter storms, to crippling blizzards.’
Distant Future? I’ll start paying attention when their ‘projections’ are for 10,000 years from now. Otherwise, FO…
As someone who grew up in a suburb of Chicago, I think I can be confident in saying that most people will be happy if there were less snow and cold in the winter.
Chicago winters can be brutal.
Just never ends with these Snow Deniers.
All the way back to Al Gore and “climate scientists” in the late 19080’s
So their “high resolution” models projected 70-80 years out say:
“28% fewer snowstorms on average per year over central and eastern portions of North America by the century’s last decade, with one-third the amount of snow or frozen precipitation and a 38% loss in average snowstorm size.” They “know” the answer to two significant figures, 28 and 38 percent. Really? Are they sure it might not be 27.53% and 38.44275%?? Wow! I would not have believed 30 and 40%, but 28 and 38? Put some error bars around that, say + or – 50%.
Gotta love how they claim the “study is believed to be the first to objectively …” Everybody is looking to be the first at something.
Yada, yada, yada.
“28% fewer snowstorms” ? And how is that supposed to be bad news ?
Could someone please make my day and overbid with”40% fewer cumulonimbus” ?
And ten years ago Al Gore predicted the North Polar Ice Cap could be completely ice free within the next five to seven years.
According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
Context is everything.
“They then tracked snowstorms to see to how those winter events would change in a climate that was warmer by about 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit).
”
This is what is known as a worst case scenario.
What if Yellowstone blows its lid?
What if an asteroid hits?
What if it warms by 5C
what if.
what if is NOT a prediction.
what if is a SCENARIO
FFS
So totally IMAGINARY !
Thanks Mosh ! 🙂
What if?
What if I don’t wake up tomorrow morning?
All this AGW conjecture will have been for nothing!
Oh, the humanity!
Time after Time we have climate research papers with authors and co-authors whose names we cannot pronounce, let alone spell. Foreign looking names.
Foreigners are equally able to do good research as people with names like the Smith or Brown, familiar to English speaking countries.
But, when we meet a barrage of author names from the regions in and around Germany, we have to question if we are meeting a planned program of deliberate activism that could be contrary to our own broad aspirations.
What would you deduce for a working hypothesis if globally, papers on science mostly included the author name of “Kim”? That Korea had some special interest?
Geoff S
Let’s assume they are correct for a second *quit laughing*
From my seat in ND, milder winters don’t sound like a bad thing.
They have learnt their lesson.
This prediction cannot be falsified for 80 years, by which time they will all be dead,
It is like politicians setting targets decades away, safe in the knowledge that they will not be in power when the date arrives.
Great news.
New student housing can be built to Tennessee building codes. No need for expensive insulation and heating.
Or don’t you trust your own models?
and people wonder why I ask for the data
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/may/28/questions-raised-over-hydroxychloroquine-study-which-caused-who-to-halt-trials-for-covid-19
As a graduate of NIU more than 50 years ago and still living in the area, all can say is this is just another indication of how far NIU has gone down the sewer. On campus enrollment has dropped from 25,000 in 2008 to 17000 in 2019, and with good reason. It is becoming increasing dangerous to be on campus at night and the quality of professors has plummeted. They recently got rid of a president who was involved in scandalous activities. Another reason I no longer donate a dime. My prediction is that NIU may not exist in 10 years.
I got my MS at NIU in ’76. My things have changed. It is a different quality from then it seems.
I predict the end of dire CAGW projections….
We’re about to go through at least 30-years of global cooling when CO2 emissions will be at record levels showing once and for all CO2 is NOT the climate control knob:
1) Strong La Niña cycle developing (2 years of global cooling)
2) Atlantic entering its 30-year cool cycle (30 years global cooling)
3) Southern Ocean cooling (indeterminate global cooling)
4) Pacific will soon enter its 30-year cool cycle (30-years global cooling)
5) 50-year Grand Solar Minimum just started (perhaps 50-years of global cooling):
BTW, the total lack of studies on the expanding North Atlantic Cold Blob (my name for it) is indicative of why CAGW is still a thing…
“ Under an unabated greenhouse gas emissions scenario, . . .”
Interestingly, today I read “The U. S. consumed more renewable energy than coal last year for the first time since 1885, . . . ”
Steven, @ 4:14 says “it is a scenario” { in CAPS}
So:
Theory “snow be gone at some time in the future after I’m no longer around to be held accountable for my prediction”
Data
Northern Hemisphere snow is at the same level it was from 1967 to 2007 following an 11 year period where it was elevated….
“Interestingly, today I read “The U. S. consumed more renewable energy than coal last year for the first time since 1885, . . . ””
As the rules don’t consider Hydro as renewables that would be bollocks….
https://www.statista.com/statistics/203325/us–energy-consumption-by-source/
“The snow season will start later and end earlier,” Ashley said. “Generally, what we consider an abnormally mild winter now, in terms of the number and intensity of snowstorms, will be the harshest of winters late this century. There will be fewer snowstorms, less overall precipitation that falls as snow and almost a complete removal of snow events in the southern tier of the United States.“ – article
Do these idiots ever go outside at all? Perhaps he can explain why it snowed on Hallowe’en last year (I have photos with dated files, as always) and why it snowed at the end of April this year (photos!) and why it’s been so cold that the trees didn’t start to leaf out until mid-May, and even then, it was a mingy process. Maybe they can explain why there was still thick snow on the ground 30 miles north of me in Wisconsin, and why the lake at the IL-WI state line 8 miles north of me still had a major ice sheet sitting on it in late March. It confuses the geese and ducks, too, never mind whatever fish there are.
Frankly, I wouldn’t take their word for anything. They are completely out of touch with reality. Maybe about 20 pounds of reality sitting on each of their vehicles would do the trick?
“Do these idiots ever go outside at all? Perhaps he can explain why it snowed on Hallowe’en last year (I have photos with dated files, as always) and why it snowed at the end of April this year (photos!) and why it’s been so cold that the trees didn’t start to leaf out until mid-May, and even then, it was a mingy process.”
What has this comment pertaining to your recent local weather to do with a projection of …..
” …… what we consider an abnormally mild winter now, in terms of the number and intensity of snowstorms, will be the harshest of winters late this century.” ?
Answer, well actually nothing.
Well actually everything, your graphs are 10 years out of date, try the unbiased upto date data.
I repeat.
Actually no.
Your graph is of snow mass (related to warmth of atmosphere carrying more WV, hence snowfall in winter).
The Globe is warming.
Sorry it just is … even Spencer’s outlier warm atmospheric temp series shows it.
And the graph is for the whole winter.
As the article says ….
“The snow season will start later and end earlier,”
As in Autumn and Spring seeing decreases.
And this is an up to date graph of snow extent in NH Spring……
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=2
Why did you not reproduce this from the same sourcehttps://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=namgnld&ui_season=4
So a year on year increase of snow ,if you care to look at the autumn data the same again snow increase,this completely contradicts your ridiculous claim , Spencer’s sat data shows a warming over 40 years of 0.38c that is not what you global warmests predicted, nor is it any sign of global warming it’s natural variation, if it was not for the two el Nino events ,1998,2016 there would be no warming at all, there is no linear rise in temperature in Spencer’s data, it shows the cyclical nature of temperature, of course you warmests scaremonger people by saying there is a linear rise when no such thing is happening,
Perhaps you dont understand how significant this graph is
The 30 mean average has been significantly overtaken with NH snow
Of course you dont like it, your prayer book says you cant like it, how many people have you not convinced today.
It is true that autumn snow extent is increasing. You will probably laugh but that too is due to warming …. the more open Arctic waters at the start of the freezing season are injecting more moisture into the atmosphere in high latitudes. There is a particularly noted increase over Eurasia, which cools rapidly at that time inducing a more rapid westward spread of snow cover.
At the moment the two trends at opposite ends of the winter are balancing out BUT as I said in my first post, the paper here is projecting to the end of the century and to attack it due to …..
“Do these idiots ever go outside at all?” (Sara).
Is typical of ignorant dismissive comments to be seen on here every thread.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-spring-snow-cover
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425717300342
“Highlights
•
A long-term snow cover extent (SCE) is produced using satellite optical sensors.
•
The SCE in northern hemisphere (NH) exhibits decreasing trends in all seasons.
•
The negative long-term trends of SCE reveal recent shrinkage of snow cover in NH.
•
Snow cover duration (SCD) exhibits geographically asymmetric trends in NH.
•
SCD in western Eurasia has shortened up to two months over the past three decades.”
UAH (V6.?) is by far the coolest outlier of all the global temperatures series.
Missing as it does nocturnal warming at the surface under low level inversions…..
The globe is warming.
Spring snow extent is decreasing – to be followed by autumn extent later this century.
As this paper is saying.
Oh, and “belief” lies with those that deny science, as science works via repeated observation…. IE facts (or as close we will ever get to an agreement of them).
Have your own beliefs, by all means.
But not your own facts.
Do you not understand the bizarreness of accusing science of being a belief system (prayer book) when the whole MO of WUWT lies with climate (no ALL Earth) scientists of being corrupt and/or incompetent.
No, the logic lies with them knowing more than you and all those that get their “science” from ideologically motivated Blogs.
Oh, and finally …
If you say so.
As it matters not a jot to the science to what you or I think, and certainly not what is written on this Blog.
Your really not that bright are you ,first you try to mislead fourm readers that snow is decreasing ,then we see autumn and winter snow is increasing ,you admit to autumn yet you fail to acknowledge winter snow increase,from the same source ,so you paint a biased untruthful representation of NH snow cover.
The next thing you did to deceive was not reply to my post directly just post to the thread, unfortunately for you every post is forwarded to participants.
Do you know why it snows during a ice age ,because even if the land is frozen the oceans still evaporate hence more snow and packed snow turning to ice ,which realy nullifys your statement of global warming causing more snow, the lower atmosphere temp has dropped since 2016 did you manage to work that one out from UAHv6 , so bring it on global warmest the opportunity to spell out simple atmospherics to clueless brainwashed people like you is why were all here, how many is that you have not convinced today.
Heres the winter snow fall graph from your source the one you failed to acknowledge
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=namgnld&ui_season=1
Actually, Anthony, is has A LOT to do with it. The length of the snow season from the first snowfall in late October has changed drastically. First snowfall used to come at the end of November, and the last snowfall on May 1st, which used to be April 1st, at a distance of 35 miles south of where I live now, and before that, early to mid-March, has changed drastically. And this is in addition to cold air sitting over my area like a grumpy old man. The biggest local river, the Des Plaines has had spring floods every year since 2004 but before that, it hadn’t flooded in living memory. It is so bad now that the areas I used to hike require waterproof boots and a walking staff for balance. The wetlands are wetter than ever, and the free food fishing people have to move back from the fishing lake’s edge now or wear hip boot waders.
These aren’t signs of warming climate. These ARE signs of changes in the jet stream, humidity levels (we’re getting a lot from the Great Lake, the Great Frozen North, and the Gulf of Mexico) , and if you want to label it with climate, yes it is a sign of climate change but this argument that we’re going to have climate change dropped on us like a ton of bricks is ludicrous. Real climate change from desert to grasslands to woodlands and swamps takes far longer than you will ever live. You’ll need a time machine to see it. You could dial up Dr. Who for that kind of trip.
Seriously, the Middle East is getting flooding spring rains routinely now that it used to have about once every 10 years, and those monsoonal winds are going west into Africa instead of up northeast into India. Snow in the Sahara is not unusual, but it is unusual for it to stick around for several days. Ditto the Atacama Desert in Chile – driest and hottest place on the planet and now it has hip deep winter snows and flowers blooming in the Chilean spring where they haven’t bloomed in centuries.
Now, if you can explain why things are “warming” when the Sun is dormant and has been since July 2006 – few or not sunspots all that time, per NASA’s photo files – and why I’m still running my furnace to keep my house warm in the month of June, I’ll be happy to discuss that with you. But if you think we’re warming up and somehow going to shrivel up like dried up autumn leaves, I believe that you are sadly mistaken.
If anything, we are heading toward a prolonged cold period. 4 1/2 inches of snow on my front steps on Hallowe’en last year do not bode well for a warmer climate. It it were warming, the snow would be rain.;
snow flurries here mid-maine on 5-12-2020.
had to run furnace at night well into late May.
not too worried about losing snow.
I had to run the furnace today, still have it turned on as of 12:30PM CDT, and I do not live anywhere near the state of Maine or the polar regions. … or Siberia, for that matter.
Not worried about losing snow, either. My only concern is whether or not it’ll be too chilly to enjoy a bowl of ice cream. 🙂
When the NWS forecast for PM temperatures is in the 40s at night in my area, either Spring took a holiday and Summer may be slow in showing up, or someone needs to try to wake up the Sun.
know MI area is supposed to be high of low 60’s f for a few days so would expect nights around 40. heading this way from what it looks like.
I’m still running my furnace and it is June 1. I expect to run it all week, except for Wednesday. It’s the overnight temps that drop like a stone when the dewpoint hits. That’s what we should all be looking at. Once that effect – reaching the dewpoint – takes place, heat can bubble up from the planet surface faster than you can shake a stick at it and the colder air drops on us. I’m keeping the blankets on the bed, too.
Even though I don’t put a lot of stock in the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s predictions, they seem to be fairly close to what IS happening in my area this year. That’s scary.
“The study is believed to be the first to objectively identify and track individual snowstorm projections of the distant future”
The word salad of climate change chatter. It’s both idiotic and sounds smart all in one. A perfect salad. Pass the dressing, please.
“If we do little to mitigate climate change, the winter season will lose much of its punch in the future,” said Walker Ashley. I live in Manitoba Canada and we are usually colder than Siberia. All I can say is I HOPE SO!!! I don’t think so but I hope so. Oh and today is the first day with no forecast of frost in the foreseeable future so today, finally, I am planting my tomatoes plants outside. (Global warming, bah!, my Aunt Martha’s hind toshki.)
So AGW is NOT responsible for colder than normal winters now? Wasn’t that the excuse during the Polar Vortex years? That the Earth was producing colder winters because of the generalized warming? I mean that didn’t make sense so now it’s “due to warming we’re no longer going to have snow”……um…..NSS.
As for going outside….no, they don’t. Nor do they remember things like frost on Halloween or the Tax Day Blizzard which dumped 2′ of snow in 24 hrs across much of the snow belt just north of where these idiots go to school. They have also forgotten that last winter Chicago and much of N. Ill was coated in ice most of the time. ON the other hand: Maybe the DO REMEMBER and don’t want to experience it again…so they put in their wishful thinking and BAM! out pops a computer model that tells them if they live to be 100, they will never have to experience the sheer terror of solid black ice roadways.
Am I the only one that truly feels for the electrons that were sacrificed to produce this utter nonsense of a paper? And wish those that are trapped within it’s electronic folds are freed from their prison? LOL probably…
Thank you, Jenn! I lived in Chicago for 30 years and have every confounded blizzard-laden winter burned into my memory. Then I move 35 miles north, and get hit with it again, every confounded winter! Yes, last winter was nasty and slippery, and the icicles hanging off my roof were ridiculously long, but they melted within a day because the direct Sun was everywhere.
“Climate change could dramatically reduce U.S. snowstorms”
Enough already of these “could happen”-type of articles. A “planet-killer” comet COULD hit Earth in the next 10 years. I COULD win the Powerball lottery next week. Michael Mann COULD break a leg tomorrow.
What is one to do with such speculative information . . . that is, outside of just laughing about it?
I must have missed it! When”.
Having attended NIU best known for its Business School, though in recent years has improved its Engineering School, the term Northern Illinois University scientists is an oxymoron unless you broadly define scientist as engineers.
Anthony
Heres a few cold temps and snow in both hemispheres enjoy
https://electroverse.net/south-africa-14-all-time-monthly-low-temperature-records-fell-yesterday-may-28/
https://electroverse.net/norway-just-suffered-its-snowiest-winter-since-1958/
https://electroverse.net/the-state-of-queensland-just-averaged-its-coldest-may-day-on-record/
https://electroverse.net/australia-to-suffer-yet-another-continent-wide-icy-blast/
https://electroverse.net/north-america-has-set-233-new-all-time-monthly-low-temperature-records-in-may/
https://electroverse.net/may-snow-hits-the-uk/
If you would like more examples just let me know , the may snow in UK was somewhat understated.
I looked at the UK link. Looks like the mini-ice age people have been predicting will only show up after I”m dead. Durn it! I was SO looking forward to that, too!