Guest “set our people free!” by David Middleton
Shelter in place has been an EPIC FAIL…
‘Shocking’: 66% of new coronavirus patients in N.Y. stayed home: Cuomo
By DENIS SLATTERY
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS |
MAY 06, 2020ALBANY — The majority of recently hospitalized coronavirus patients in New York are people who have followed the precaution of staying home, Gov. Cuomo said Wednesday.
The governor said it was “shocking” that 66% of new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who are either retired or unemployed and not commuting to work on a regular basis.
[…]
“This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home,” Cuomo said during a briefing on Long Island. “We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we’ve taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home.”
[…]
NY Daily News
Apparently, shelter in place just “fattened” the curve. Now… let’s flatten the hell out of this curve…
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Rather than reading David’s summary of Denis’s summary of Governor Cuomo’s statements, I would encourage everyone to Google the actual press convergence. Third-hand knowledge is often distorted in the transmission.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tpN_PhjbTY starting ~ 8:30.
“The governor said it was “shocking” that 66% of new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who are either retired or unemployed and not commuting to work on a regular basis.”
No. The governor said 66% of new cases were people living at home (as opposed to nursing homes, jail, homeless, etc). Many of these were “retired or unemployed and not commuting”, but this is sloppy to get the facts wrong.
“Shelter in place has been an EPIC FAIL…”
Well, NY’s daily new infections has dropped by ~70% since the peak a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, US daily new infections has dropped by only ~20% since the peak a few weeks ago (and the majority of that drop can be attributed to the drop in NY!)
NY is reducing infections faster than the rest of the country. That doesn’t sound like an “epic fail”. It sounds like “doing a good job in a densely populated area where infections could spread very quickly”.
It also sounds like ‘enough people have been infected and are now immune that the disease can no longer spread easily.’
The Netherlands measured their “success” on their way to herd immunity by using an antibody test with a couple of weeks in between. First time 3% next time 6%. Extrapolation was herd immunity by June 2021.
But they can’t get any faster if you look at their ICU availability:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/netherlands
BdC,
Try an opposing views on the Jo Nova blog where Jo (trained in the topic) notes that London stats are poor, yet incoming flights are without controls or testing. Seems a plausible case, that infection would go down if incoming flights are stopped. You have a conflicting theory? Geoff S
The ability of this virus to spread has been under estimated the world over. Apparently the isolation practiced in New York has not been adequate to stop the spread of the virus.
Shelter in place actually works
https://twitter.com/DerrickVanGenn2/status/1258857817127215104/photo/1
IF you do it and do it right.
sadly the New York data doesnt tell you want you want to know. or it tells both sides what they want to hear.
what is missing?
1. what percentage of the actual population was sheltering in place. 66% of those who showed
up with symptoms REPORTED staying at home. That tells you nothing unless you
know, what percentage they are of the population.
2. 66% reported, self reported.. Now here in Korea, we would check their damn phone to see if they
A) lied
B) visited the grocery or whereever.
3. Who their family members ?. Husband stays home, wife goes to work. One gives it to the other.
basically the New york data does not go far enough. half assed job.
idiots on both sides will try to draw conclusions from it.
don’t be an idiot
We’re not talking about S. Korea. We’re talking about Cuomo-De Blasio land.
“IF you do it and do it right.”
which word is giving you trouble?
THIS is the author’s claim
‘Shelter in place has been an EPIC FAIL…”
As my link shows.. it can work.
The data collected by new york isn’t telling Dave what he thinks it is telling him
Austria, New Zeeland, Tiawan. Plenty of folks have figured out how to do it right.
has zero to do with Korea.
“Austria, New Zeeland, Tiawan”
You mis-spelt Australia 🙂
Most of us see what you did there. 🙂
“Steven Mosher May 9, 2020 at 6:24 pm
Austria, New Zeeland, Tiawan. Plenty of folks have figured out how to do it right.
has zero to do with Korea.”
If you mean Australia, you are talking out of you arse again Mosher!
In both Austria and Australia new cases are way down, following isolation requirements made early.
Complete bollox!
Yeah but not in NY, where this piece is referencing.
Or did you think the author is unaware of “Austria” [sic], “New Zeeland” [sic], and the rest of the places that aren’t Cuomo-DeBlasio disaster land, where shelter in place might actually have worked?
You seem a bit too sensitive dood . . . relax! It’s all gonna be okay!
Oops, missed one . . . “Tiawan” [sic].
There.
“1. what percentage of the actual population was sheltering in place. 66% of those who showed
up with symptoms REPORTED staying at home. That tells you nothing unless you
know, what percentage they are of the population.”
Actually, from the original report (or at least the press conference), 66% reported they *lived* at home (as opposed to nursing homes, jails, etc). They could have been commuting, going to the store, etc.
The information they did collect (again, from the press conference) about transportation was “Transportation Method In Daily Life”. First, nearly half of the people did not even answer! And If people only traveled occasionally, they might have marked “none” since it was not ‘daily’.
“basically the New york data does not go far enough.”
I am with you there! Certainly the summary provided does not tell a complete story. They should have asked about people’s travel. They should have asked about visitors & family members.
Too bad the actual data does not seem to be available, rather than just a press conference about the data. (Which is still way better than a comment about an article about a press conference about the data.)
Any contact App on a phone relies on people actually downloading it. people not switching their phone off or leaving it at home. Phones not running out of juice etc etc.
People who have something to hide or who have an objection to being tracked just won’t co-operate. That doesn’t mean contact tracing won’t help but it’ll never be as efficient as some hope.
Taiwan is the only country that got it right from the outset. A number of others, that include South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and possibly Austria, eventually got it good enough to get the genie back into the bottle.
Sweden is not even trying to get the genie back in. Just accepting 80 deaths a day for the foreseeable future – now at 3220 dead.
UK is doing it back to front – locking everyone up in their home while importing 10k potential cases every day through Heathrow – something out of a Fawlty Towers script.
US is a mish-mash of half a****d ideas. Funny thing – did you see all the heavily armed old, obese men cramped together in the Lansing Town Hall:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_jWONaP-4U
Exactly what is needed to fight a virus. It is no wonder the US is a mess. Is it likely any of them are not hypertensive?
When I am asked “why did Australia lock down?”, my answer is to avoid chaos. There were actually fist fights over toilet paper rolls in supermarket aisles just 8 weeks back. Then there is the protection of the food supply chain and all the essential services.
If social distancing is eased in US then the ingredients for chaos are simmering. 25k cases a day can mushroom very quickly. Does not take long before the food supply chain is under serious threat. Then hoarding begins, then fights with heavily armed individuals – that is chaos.
Social distancing does not need strict laws but it does require discipline and it appears many US citizens do not understand the difference between what they WANT and what they NEED. A curiously suspicious bunch!
“UK is doing it back to front – locking everyone up in their home while importing 10k potential cases every day through Heathrow – something out of a Fawlty Towers script.”
I hear the UK is stopping this practice. UK airlines say it will put them out of business.
Island nations in general have done a good job. South Korea is similar to an island nation because there is not a lot of travel from its Northern neighbor.
Reasons for island having an easier task include: natural isolation and borders, fewer places of entry, air travel can be terminated abruptly, etc.
RickWill
It is obvious that people with freedom can’t be relied upon to do the ‘right’ thing. Therefore, we need a totalitarian government to closely monitor and control the movement of everyone. We can then expect to have a happy, peaceful, and safe populace. /sarc
“basically the New york data does not go far enough. half assed job.”
Yes, this failure to collect adeqate data is turning into a real problem. This is something the federal agencies should be jumping on with both feet. How do you know what to do if you don’t have adequate data? Answer: You don’t know, and this causes you to do ignorant, counterproductive things. There is no excuse when the data is there to be collected and the collection just isn’t done.
Not surprising. Flu deaths peak in cold weather not because of lockdowns like we currently experience but largely because people voluntarily stay indoors and crowd together to keep warm. Its an incubator for infection. Forcing people to do exactly the same thing to ‘slow down’ COVID 19 is counter intuitive.
Why?
1. shopping (going out for supplies).
2. elevator buttons.
3. narrow sideways with too many people (every wearing masks.)
But, still, NY and Michigan are the only states that have a curve that looks like “getting under control”.
All I really care about is, 10’s of thousands have reportedly been killed by the Wuhan virus and 10’s of millions have been unemployed by the response to the Wuhan virus. And none of this would have happened without the blatant malfeasance of the Chinese Communist Party. I would really like to turn back the clock on China’s economy to the period of time when their most valuable export was rubber doggy doo. Then I would like to find another supplier for that.
Yes, ultimately the Chinese Communist leadership is the source of all of our problems.
We shouldn’t let them forget it, or let them think we are going to forget it.
No, it’s a brand new world. Our future actions will be based on what the Chinese leadership has done. We are going to hold them to account.
In New Jersey as of today 53% of all deaths were in long term care facilities eg nursing homes. How can adjacent New York be only 20%
I’m surprised none of the major climate sceptic sites have picked up the correlation between the Imperial College code scandal and Climategate:
https://lockdownsceptics.org/second-analysis-of-fergusons-model/
Rod,
A worthwhile read.
Most of the cases and deaths are in and around large, crowded metropolitan centers with less than clean air. Even slight lung damage as a result of long term living in such places has to be looked at as an enhancer of the severity of the disease. But I know it would be politically incorrect to actually make a finding about this because these conditions have been allowed to fester for decades. No one wants to take the blame for this epic failure of our modern world.
I live Warren County New Jersey. Its has a pop of 100K and is semi rural. 80% (80 out of 100)of the deaths here are in nursing homes.
Most of the deaths in Australia were aged people confined in care homes.
I’m skeptical about this whole thing. I think everyone will end up catching covid-19 sooner or later, unless a vaccine is produced.
Taiwan demonstrated the priorities in avoiding an epidemic;
#1 close borders and separate people – flights from China stopped in January.
#2 use a fast, effective test to identify cases – testing up and running in January
#3 implement the contact tracing plan – have had a plan for decades, which includes every electronic form of contact tracing through to more manual processes.
Taiwan has recorded 440 cases and 6 deaths to CV19; last death exactly a month ago. Near zero economic impact with GDP still increasing but down on forecast by a few points.
These are the only actions that matter. Everything else is after the genie is out.
The US score in my view on each of these is – 3 for borders because they eventually stopped flights from China and other locations but no internal border controls and did separate people in most States; 2 for testing because they were slow to get an effective test and 0 for contact tracing plan – there was no plan before the virus and appears to be little or no tracing now (most cases found as they present at hospitals) resulting in deaths to resolved of 27%. Countries with effective tracing have deaths to resolved of about 1.5%. Even Spain has done much better than US despite being initially overwhelmed; deaths to resolved 17%.
The results for an approach that has the priorities correct gives stark contrast to the USA – so far 80k deaths with somewhere between 1500 and 2000 daily deaths for the foreseeable future.
The crazy thing, it only takes 14 to 20 days to completely deprive the virus of hosts provided those that are on their backs suffering the worst but still alive are effectively quarantined from everyone else. Taiwan’s potential epidemic lasted 1 month; exponential rise in cases from 14 March and down to 1 case in a day by 11 April.
Good luck USA – you need it. As far as I can discern that is all you have in the arsenal.
.
“Good luck USA – you need it. As far as I can discern that is all you have in the arsenal.”
I would say the U.S. is doing pretty good considering we had to start from scratch, and we are getting better every day with production of all medical equipment ramping up. You don’t hear any cries for ventilators any more because Trump has gotten the private sector producing more than the U.S. needs, and we are now exporting ventilators. The same with PPE and with testing. The U.S. will have the best and most testing of any nation on Earth before it is all said and done.
The U.S. is going back to work and will be on top of this situation shortly. Watch us roar!
Hi Dave,
I don’t know if you’ve seen it but a sight does a nice job of plotting the John Hopkins Covid data. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
Bob.
Very cool! 👍👍
WANT TO SLASH CORONAVIRUS DEATHS? START (REALLY) CARING ABOUT LONG TERM CARE
A “Manhattan Project” mentality is already being deployed for the development of a vaccine and treatments. We need to do the same to protect vulnerable older people.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/opinion/495733-want-to-slash-covid-19-deaths-start-really-caring-about-long-term
By Karl Pillemer and Mark S. Lachs , Opinion Contributor May 01, 2020
What if a targeted set of actions taken in January would have cut COVID-19 deaths by 40 percent or more and reduced hospitalizations by a similar amount? And what if this possibility still exists?
No, we are not talking about a vaccine, a drug treatment, or a new surveillance and testing system. We are talking about stopping the coronavirus from entering nursing homes and assisted living facilities.
__________________________
Good thoughts, better late than never.
I wrote on 21Mar2020 based on the data available at that time:
“Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five.
This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.”
______________________
I still say that was the correct call.
What actually happened DURING THE FULL LOCKDOWN in places like London and New York City was THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT I STATED:
– A full lockdown of the total population and the economy, costing trillions of dollars, killing the economy, harming billions of low-income people and over-protecting the low-risk population.
– Incredibly incompetent, almost criminal lack-of-protection of the high-risk population, such that ~half of the deaths occurred among the elderly in old-age homes.
– Delay in building herd immunity, such that Covid-19 may return in the Fall of 2020.
Is this story true? Is Cuomo really that stupid (hard to believe) or was it deliberate homicide?
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/05/10/giant-cuomo-killed-my-mom-sign-erected-on-bridge-as-heartbroken-new-yorkers-grieve-on-mothers-day-919031
Many New Yorkers are ushering in a grim Mother’s Day this year amid accusations that Governor Andrew “Cuomo killed my mom” thanks to his deadly policy that forced nursing homes to admit coronavirus patients.
The bone-headed move resulted in the deaths of thousands of senior citizens living in nursing homes.
Cuomo mandated that nursing homes must accept coronavirus patients even though older people are the most at-risk to die from COVID-19. Making matters worse was the fact that nursing homes did not have personal protective equipment or COVID testing capability.
Shockingly, the mainstream media not only gave Cuomo a pass on the scandal, but lionized him as a hero.
If only it were deliberate homicide, at least one could apply some rationality to the Cuomo-DeBlasio progressive policy disaster in NY. But I don’t find it hard to believe that Cuomo is smart enough to accept the word of the same experts that told him to do thusly:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/30/model-madness-parallels-between-failed-climate-models-and-failed-coronavirus-models/#comment-2982431
Thus, sadly, I can’t bring myself to believe an act of thinking took place here.
Did New York Governor Andrew Cuomo copy British practice? He reportedly ordered Covid-19-infected patients into old folks homes and killed them all off. No wonder New York and London have very high death rates attributed to Covid-19 – it looks like the same deliberate government policy. Qui bono?
Dr. Malcolm Kendrick, a Scottish physician, wrote:
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/04/21/the-anti-lockdown-strategy/
[excerpt[
“Unfortunately, it seems that COVID-19 has infected everyone involved in healthcare management and turned their brains into useless mush.
…
[In my view, if we had any sense, we would lockdown/protect the elderly, and let everyone else get on with their lives].
However, the hospitals themselves have another policy. Which is to discharge the elderly unwell patients with COVID directly back into the community, and care homes. Where they can spread the virus widely amongst the most vulnerable.
This, believe it or not, is NHS policy. Still.”
____________________
I posted this note yesterday – it was supposed to be a satire.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/09/two-thirds-of-new-york-covid-19-patients-were-sheltering-in-place/#comment-2990431
I posted the following note in wattsup BEFORE this article by David Middleton was published. Notice the similarities. Now if I were a typical false-news-fabricator from the mainstream media, I’d concoct a wild story around these facts, something like this:
It is clear from these events that the intent of the leftists in charge of big cities like New York and London was to “cull the herd”, by deliberately exposing the elderly and infirm to the Covid-19 illness – such as herding them into crowded quarters, exposing them to infected care workers, etc…
Why else would the number and mortality of the Covid-19 illness be so much higher in leftist-run cities than elsewhere? And why would the leftists who run these cities want this to happen?
First, many of the far-left are neo-Malthusians, Club-of-Rome types, who want to reduce the world’s population. Second, killing off the elderly and infirm cuts down on pensions and welfare costs. Third, older people tend to vote Republican, because they are too sensible to be Democrats. Fourth, prolonging the death toll could lengthen the lockdowns and further damage the economy, demoralize and impoverish the populace and make them more dependent on government handouts, paving the way for a permanent socialist state. Fifth, extending the lockdowns could hurt the re-election prospects of Republicans, including one Donald Trump.
But I’m really not like them, those odious false-news-fabricators of the left, so I would never make up a story like that.
Sarc/off 🙂
Old Swedish army practice for flu seasons. If a garrison gets infected send troops out to the forests. Teams live out-door life in tents clearly separated with each other (mile, half mile). Just the opposite of stay at home! Surprisingly, governments even try to prevent natural go to your vacation home idea.
Fever, becoming tired and lack of appetite are natural ways to increase social distancing. The sick normally isolate, too. But we don’t. We send infected people to nursing homes. Hospitals do not isolate infection patients from cancer patients and so on. Families are locked down with their infected members. Most of the cases are mild and you don’t want to test yourself to be quarantined or even worse.
“Teams live out-door life in tents clearly separated with each other (mile, half mile). Just the opposite of stay at home!”
What’s the difference between several people spending time together in a tent, and several people spending time together in an apartment? Nothing I can see.
Btw, I doubt the troops were separating from each other at that distance. Think about it.
“What’s the difference between several people spending time together in a tent, and several people spending time together in an apartment? Nothing I can see.”
Troops are protected from the outside world. No garrison’s cafe, no visits to girl-friends and parents. Out-door exercises whole day and if you have symptoms, you definitely want out and get to the doctor. Coughing inside a sleeping bag is like having a mask.
You have your survival kit with you and cook your own meals. No groceries, elevators, door handles, neighbors.
Distance between teams must be long enough that they do not want to contact each other.
Let’s have a month hunting and fishing in a log cabin in the wilderness while even doing our remote work.
“In at least 14 states, more than half of coronavirus deaths are tied to long-term care facilities for older adults, according to a New York Times database.” “At least 25,600 residents and workers have died from the coronavirus at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities for older adults”
What is the definition of “sheltered in their homes”? The nursing home workers sheltered in the nursing homes?
Rod McLaughlin posted the updated LockdownSceptics’ analysis.
Ferguson Protection Team has been assembled, including from Imperial College:
9 May: Daily Mail: Professor Lockdown Neil Ferguson should NOT have resigned over secret trysts at his London flat with married mistress say epidemiologists because ‘we need all the assets we can use in time of crisis’
•Experts blast ‘misconception’ that one man was the ‘architect of the lockdown’
•Scientists release a joint statement to defend introduction of social distancing
•Thibaut Jombart described his shamed colleague as ‘one of the best in the world’
By Tom Pyman
Thibaut Jombart, a member of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicines Moddeling Group, and senior lecturer at Imperial College London, where Professor Ferguson was based, coordinated the letter and praised his colleague’s influence on BBC Radio Four’s Today programme.
‘I’m against targeting any individual in general irrespective of what happened which was an error of judgement,’ he said. ..
‘There’s a lot of brilliant epidemiologists in the country and he’s definitely one of the top ones in the world. In this time of crisis we need all the assets we can use so I think he should have stayed involved.
‘He’s a very experienced modeller, I’d rather have him on SAGE. So I hope he will stay involved in one way or another in the science.’…
The scandal broke on Tuesday and critics have said he ‘undermined the government’s lockdown message’ on one of the darkest days of the pandemic.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8303021/Professor-Lockdown-NOT-resigned-secret-trysts-mistress-say-epidemiologists.html
10 May: Daily Mail: Has our mad mass house arrest during Covid-19 saved even a single life?
by Peter Hitchens
We will not escape from this misery until the Government has been forced to admit that it made a foolish mistake and over-reacted wildly to Covid-19…
Even when Professor Neil Ferguson, chief advocate of the Panic Laws, was caught ignoring his own rules, nothing changed. The nation giggled and missed the point. I actually care more about what goes on above Prof Ferguson’s neck than what takes place below his belt.
The significance of his action was that even he doesn’t believe his scare stories enough to obey the rules based on them. Well, I don’t believe those scare stories either and never have.
But thanks to him and his raving prophecies, I now live in a country where the police – the police! – seriously consider prosecuting a free man for canoodling with his married mistress…
We are living in a mad country, governed by clowns. Who will save us from this, or must it just go on for ever?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8303715/PETER-HITCHENS-mad-mass-house-arrest-Covid-19-saved-single-life.html
9 May: UK Sun: SECOND LOVER Husband of lockdown-breaking Professor Ferguson’s lover Antonia Staats ‘has his own mistress’
by Nick Parker
PIC CAPTION: Professor Ferguson and Ms Staats are said to have met on dating site OkCupid, which has become popular with left-leaning couples who share liberal views…
Prof Ferguson, 51, would have been asked whether he reckoned Brexit was either “terrible for the UK” or “great for the UK”.
He would also have been quizzed on whether he considered his political beliefs to be either, “liberal/left, centrist, or conservative/right”.
The algorithm matched him with blonde Ms Staats, a south London-based left-wing campaigner with a masters in Asian politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies…
Ms Staats – who lives in a £1.9million home in Clapham, South West London – is also a climate change activist who joined anti-press protests outside Parliament in 2017…
The Sun on Sunday source added: “The fact that Professor Ferguson was matched with a left-wing activist makes his political leanings pretty clear.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11586872/husband-professor-neil-ferguson-lover-seeing-woman/
9 May: UK Express: Professor Lockdown confounded science, says CAROLE MALONE
WHY was it the fact that Professor Neil Ferguson couldn’t keep it in his pants heralded his sacking (sorry resignation) not his disastrous doomsday projections that forced this country into a financially crippling lockdown?…
He should also be kicked out of Imperial College. But why was this “moron” (Elon Musk’s word for him not mine) ever allowed to foist his wildly inaccurate, End of Days study on to this Government in the first place? Who made him the Poster Boy for coronavirus? Didn’t anyone bother to check what his farcically off-beam models on past viruses were? Didn’t anyone in Government stop to say: “Actually this bloke’s predictions over the past 15 years have all been cobblers.”
Because if they had, they’d have seen Ferguson said Mad Cow would kill between 50 and 50,000 Brits, a range so broad that even me, with my B grade in science, could have taken a better shot at it. The actual death toll was 158.
He said that Bird flu could “probably” kill around 200million worldwide. In the event it killed 455 people globally. In 2009 he said Swine Flu could kill 65,000 in Britain – the death toll was 283.
Ferguson’s spectacular failings makes you wonder what passes for a scientist these days. What must your achievements be before you’re given the onerous responsibility of deciding what happens in the teeth of a pandemic? I know science and scientists can’t ever be exact, but surely anyone with a reputation for being a decent one must have scored some accurate hits at some point? Surely, they can’t get away with saying 500,000 people could die from Covid (as Ferguson did) when, even with the Government’s often inept handling of the virus, there have been under 30,000 deaths. And no, that’s not nothing – but it isn’t 500,000…
Yes, Ferguson is a hypocrite and an arrogant toe-rag who thought the rules didn’t apply to him. But not only has his flagrant breach of the regulations tarnished him, it’s tarnished the reputation of Imperial College. And we’d be right in thinking that if Professor Lockdown is the best they have – and the people running the college must have thought he was otherwise why make him the frontman – then God help us!
So the question remains – why DID this Government blindly follow, without question, his hopelessly unreliable studies?…
It was using Imperial College models that led scientists to predict Sweden’s lax measures would lead to 40,000 deaths In fact there have been fewer than 3,000 (NOW 3,220)…
We stuck to lockdown because Ferguson terrified us by telling us what could happen if we didn’t.
I wouldn’t trust this bungling pillock to tell me what day it was so why did this Government entrust him with Britain’s survival?
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1279871/professor-neil-ferguson-lockdown-measures-sage
“We stuck to lockdown because Ferguson terrified us by telling us what could happen if we didn’t.”
Was Ferguson the only one? I believe there were and are many virus computer models out there and most of them were predicting similiar scary numbers to the numbers Ferguson was predicting.
So, if you are a government leader and you have numerous virus computer models predicting disaster, then what do you do? Do you say the modellers don’t know what they are talking about? How do you know? How can you ignore them in good conscience, especially when you have no basis to claim they are wrong?
After-the-fact analysis is useless in an unprecedented situation like the Wuhan virus pandemic. Leaders have to act before the fact and hope they got it right. Requiring more of the leaders is unrealistic. They are making decisions based on very little data and possibly millions of lives are at stake.
Let me say something about an unprecedented crisis.
It is inevitable that mistakes will be made when we enter a situation that noone has ever experienced before, so we should give our leaders a little bit of leeway. This is just as new to them as it is to us.
In this kind of situation we make broad restrictions and then as time goes along we see that some restrictions are not necessary and we can relax those restrictions, but we should not be blaming our leaders for their initial restrictions, because they, like us, have never been here before and don’t understand all the ramifications of the decisions they are making. This understanding only comes with time.
So don’t be quck to comdenm some mistake, as long as that mistake is fixed, because this is a learning process for all of us including our leaders.
And don’t take this as a defense of poor leadership. Poor leadership is when you see a problem and fail to fix it. That deserves condemnation.
“So, if you are a government leader and you have numerous virus computer models predicting disaster, then what do you do? Do you say the modellers don’t know what they are talking about? How do you know? How can you ignore them in good conscience, especially when you have no basis to claim they are wrong?”
You play both options in your poker game. Donald Trump has been very good at that. Take actions and correct them when you know better. Remember his famous phrase “let’s see what happens”.
Analyze the situation fast instead of just using gut instinct. Invest on tests to know where we go. Find the key problems: spreading, deaths, hospital capacity and economy. Work on all of them.
Ban travel from China. Add restrictions when that was not enough. Focus on older people and protect them. Create excess amount of beds. ventilators and masks. Provide stimulus money to people and business but still keep the lock down short. Note that vaccines and new drugs are not possible and focus on generic ones. Catalyze innovation everywhere and let the states and local authorities to think their-selves.
And another perspective on the death rates from another engineer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXJSJbzelJ8
His bottom line point is CV-19 is serious but there are many other killers out there and many you can avoid with changes in your lifestyle.
The UK lockdown was only needed because the NHS was not coping with demand before coronavirus. Boris and his chums had just spent the last ten years dismantling the NHS.
That is what my letter from Boris said.
Could you give us some examples of this “dismantling”?
It might also be worth pointing out that the NHS was coping perfectly well before coronavirus and has effectively been operating in second gear since hospitals were focused almost solely on covid-19.
BoJo has not been in power for 10 years so care to explain that claim. If you want to extrapolate, Thatcher started it in the “dismantling” 70’s!
Why are we locked down? Protect the elderly who are most at risk? Epic fail! Don’t overload the health care systems? Maybe some success.
Massachusetts covid facts:
– 95% of deaths are over 60 yrs old
– 98.3% of covid deaths involve underlying conditions
– 83% were previously hospitalized
– 60% are from extended care facilities
While there are exceptions, There is low risk to the young and healthy.
“While there are exceptions, There is low risk to the young and healthy.”
Are you sure about that? I hope you are right.
Damage from the Wuhan virus seems to be showing up in asymptomatic people after they have had the disease and gotten over it.
So is this damage occurring in every person who goes through an entire Wuhan virus infection? Will damage to organs and blood vessels start showing up in people who have already had the Wuhan virus? This is occurring, although in small numbers at the present time, but is this all, or do we have more surprises in store from the Wuhan virus.
We should hope that an asymtomatic infection does not produce long-term damage to the body, but we don’t know this is the case.
We should probably hold off on sending children back to school until at least the fall semester. That will give us more time to figure out what this disease is doing. We may have to treat every person infected using anti-virals as soon as the infection is detected in order to rid the body of the virus and the damage it causes as soon as possible.
If it doesn’t do long-term damage to large numbers of people, then we could feel safe in letting the children become infected. But the jury is still out, as far as I can see.
“Damage from the Wuhan virus seems to be showing up in asymptomatic people after they have had the disease and gotten over it.”
Are we sure about that? Many improper conclusions are being drawn from tests that give both false positives and false negatives.
“Damage from the Wuhan virus seems to be showing up in asymptomatic people after they have had the disease and gotten over it.”
“We should hope that an asymtomatic infection does not produce long-term damage to the body, but we don’t know this is the case.”
So we know that we don’t know? 🙂
We need more rigorous examination of asymptomatic and people with mild symptoms via blood test for fibrinolysis and MRT/CTs for tissue impairments. Problem here is that it is very difficult for children to stay still long enough to get high quality pictures from MRT/CTs. But at least blood should be possible.
Microembolisms that go merely undetected could have bad outcomes in the long runs.
If you think about the headaches as a common symptom in the context of COVID-19 you might hope they are not generated from microembolisms in the brain. The brain has very limited regenerating capacity compared to other organs. As has the heart.
Though of course some thought lock down was necessary on flimsy evidence from Neil “who couldn’t handle his own baggage and keep it locked up” Ferguson, and were unable to even produce data to illustrate those that died “of” or ” with” – that takes a certain madness, even thinking those that disagreed with him were being paid- huh!
“No country has ever improved the health of its population by making itself poorer. Lockdown is impairing our ability to live with the effects of this virus, while not changing the long game’
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown-now Dr John Lee.
The UK has just passed Italy in terms of cases and deaths, but Russia is on its tail, at lease in terms of the number of cases. In effect, Sweden is doing a better job.
Can’t cure a virus by hiding in a box. It’s time to open up folks.
People are funny. They employ magical thinking and herd hysteria in response to both a mythical boogeynan (“climate change”) and a real threat, the Covid-19 pandemic. They will take factoids about something and blow them up to bolster their Belief System. Those in positions of power especially love doing this, as it bolsters and perpetuates their power.
Take, for example, the mythology of the efficacy of mask-wearing by the general public. At first, the idea was both pooh-poohed as ineffective and even net negative and condemmed, as people were stockpiling and hoarding those needed by the health industry. It should be noted that even the much-vaunted N95 respirator has a somewhat limited value, particularly once the coronavirus is airborne in aeorosol form. The surgical masks, much less so. Those are useful only as protection from virus-laden water droplets, resulting from coughing, sneezing, and certain procedures. Then, the CDC reversed course, recommending that people wear masks of the homemade variety. Why? Was the original science faulty? No. It was a purely political decision. Give the sheeple what they want, which is to feel safe, even though they aren’t. Next we have that magical 6-foot distancing rule, which was based on a finding of how far water droplets from a sneeze can (supposedly) carry. Notice the factoid, based on a particular, and frankly unusual circumstance; that of someone who has the coronavirus, and has obvious symptoms being out in public. Yes, because when I’m sick, the first thing I want to do is go mingle with people, go shopping, etc.
There are indeed many parallels between the climate hysteria and Covoid-19 hysteria. In addition to the magical thinking, there is the use of public shaming, and the use of laws and police to try to force people to conform to what amounts to a sort of religion, or cult mentality.
Oh, don’t get me started on the face-mask thing: The reason for the flip flopping is pretty much what Bruce C. states — political. And, I’ll take it a step further: the reason that it CAN be political is because the quality of research supporting mask effectiveness is not that good.
I’ve been looking at different studies on mask wearing for the past few weeks, and, from what I have read, studies tend to point out the limitations of evidence, paucity of research, and need for better studies, but, inevitably (and I mean almost in every such study) the authors make a recommendation to wear masks with an implied level of confidence that defies the very research reviewed in their own study.
This shows, NOT scientific reasoning, … but faith, hope, unwavering dedication to tradition, and desperation to create the appearance of an effective recommendation. If grant funding were involved in any of the studies, then this would further incentivize the researchers to make a recommendation. Otherwise, the funded study might be viewed as not having earned is funding.
Hopefully, I can pull all my reading of these studies into a coherent article soon, NOT aimed for this blog (I’m not worthy), but maybe for my own little collection of articles at hubpages.
I was in a local Walmart yesterday, and I noticed a sign outside recommending face coverings before entering. I thought to myself, “Why not a sign recommending that people loose weight? Why not a sign recommending that people stop smoking? Why not a sign recommending that people purchase a variety of fruits and vegetables? Why not a sign recommending that people walk ten thousand steps per day?”
Why not have a scale at the front of the store, and an attendant with body-fat calipers, to assess the body mass index of all customers entering the store? Really, why not?! Fat isn’t contagious? Smoking isn’t contagious? Sitting on your ass for extended hours isn’t contagious? Well, yeah, not in the immediate sense of catching a cold. But, in a longer-term sense, all these things are contagious, because we enable them, and enabling and forgiving and accepting are forms of transmitting ill effects.
The COVID-19 myopia, thus, is so very shallow.
I suspect that most of these New York City residents live in situations where they can’t go to the grocery store without using an elevator or going down a stairwell that is used by possibly hundreds of other people. Could it be they picked up the virus there? Overall the trend in the city is good, and it can only be thanks to the lockdown. Compare it to places like Brazil and even Minnesota, now.
“Overall the trend in the city is good, and it can only be thanks to the lockdown.’
Fully 30% in the city have tested positive for antibodies. If the lockdown did anything, it spread the virus out faster and more efficiently than anywhere else tested.
It isn’t “thanks to the lockdowns” that the trends are good. It’s thanks to the natural progression of every viral outbreak in history. They all hit a percentage of the population and then slowly burn out.
The lockdown in Russia does not seem to be very effective.
Do Russia, Brazil and India have the potential to catch the U.S. in number of cases? Realistically, it would seem that India’s population would give it the edge, but Russia has the momentum. Russia should pass Italy and the U.K. in a couple of days and then Spain about a week after that. By then, the situations in Brazil and India will be clearer.
“The lockdown in Russia does not seem to be very effective. ”
To decide about that you need to know when the lockdown was done after reaching a definitive number of infections.
Here is a graphic what curves you get for patients in intensive care with the same number (10k) infections and lockdowns starting at different timepoints:
Note that if you introduce the lockdown at day 35 you still go from 5,000 to ~20,000 whereas if you start at day 7 you get less than 2,000.
Just one thing is for sure: even Putin couldn’t ignore the virus at some point.