Climate Claim: By 2070 Average Temperatures be “Unsuitable for Human Life to Flourish”

The Singapore Merlion at the Bay
The people of Singapore endure average temperatures well above the 15C optimum. Their suffering is obvious. (The Singapore Merlion at the Bay) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to a new study, people don’t thrive in places where the average annual temperature is higher than 15C / 59F.

Unsuitable for ‘human life to flourish’: Up to 3B will live in extreme heat by 2070, study warns

Doyle Rice USA TODAY
May 4, 2020

By 2070, up to 3 billion people are likely to live in climate conditions ‘deemed unsuitable for human life to flourish.’

If global warming continues unchecked, the heat that’s coming later this century in some parts of the world will bring “nearly unlivable” conditions for up to 3 billion people, a study released Monday said. 

The authors predict that by 2070,  much of the world’s population is likely to live in climate conditions that are “warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish.”

That “niche” is equivalent to average yearly temperatures of roughly 52 to 59 Fahrenheit. The researchers found that people, despite all forms of innovations and migrations, have mostly lived in these climate conditions for several thousand years. 

“Large areas of the planet would heat to barely survivable levels and they wouldn’t cool down again,” said study co-author Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands. “Not only would this have devastating direct effects, it leaves societies less able to cope with future crises like new pandemics. The only thing that can stop this happening is a rapid cut in carbon emissions.”

Read more: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/05/04/world-heat-conditions-unlivable-global-warming-unabated/3063849001/

The abstract of the study;

Future of the human climate niche

 Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer
PNAS first published May 4, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117

Contributed by Marten Scheffer, October 27, 2019 (sent for review June 12, 2019; reviewed by Victor Galaz and Luke Kemp)

All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.

Read more: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/28/1910114117

The explanation the study authors give for why they don’t think humans thrive above 59F;

Why have humans remained concentrated so consistently in the same small part of the potential climate space? The full complex of mechanisms responsible for the patterns is obviously hard to unravel. The constancy of the core distribution of humans over millennia in the face of accumulating innovations is suggestive of a fundamental link to temperature. However, one could argue that the realized niche may merely reflect the ancient needs of agrarian production. Perhaps, people stayed and populations kept expanding in those places, even if the corresponding climate conditions had become irrelevant? Three lines of evidence suggest that this is unlikely, and that instead human thriving remains largely constrained to the observed realized temperature niche for causal reasons.

First, an estimated 50% of the global population depends on smallholder farming (19), and much of the energy input in such systems comes from physical work carried out by farmers, which can be strongly affected by extreme temperatures (20). Second, high temperatures have strong impacts (2123), affecting not only physical labor capacity but also mood, behavior, and mental health through heat exhaustion and effects on cognitive and psychological performance (202425). The third, and perhaps most striking, indication for causality behind the temperature optimum we find is that it coincides with the optimum for economic productivity found in a study of climate-related dynamics in 166 countries (12). To eliminate confounding effects of historical, cultural, and political differences, that study focused on the relation within countries between year-to-year differences in economic productivity and temperature anomalies. The ∼13 °C optimum in MAT they find holds globally across agricultural and nonagricultural activity in rich and poor countries. Thus, based on an entirely different set of data, that economic study independently points to the same temperature optimum we infer.

Read more: Same link as above

My view, this kind of study is what happens when a bunch of scientists based in temperate climates didn’t enjoy their last Caribbean holiday.

There is substantial evidence the “optimum” described in the study is a historical accident. There are plenty of cultures like Thailand and India, which built large populous nations with big cities, even conquered empires, without the “benefits” of a temperate climate, not to mention wealthy modern day tropical nations like Singapore, Malaysia and increasingly Indonesia.

Jakarta, Indonesia. Another city suffering the ravages of existence in a climate which is warmer than the human optimum climate. By Rizky MaharaniOwn work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

154 thoughts on “Climate Claim: By 2070 Average Temperatures be “Unsuitable for Human Life to Flourish”

        • I lived in Atlanta for about 30 years, then in Iowa for 10.
          I’d take Iowa in a heartbeat.

          • During the Winter?? Are you crazy?? Nothing like a couple of weeks at -20F with 30mph wind out of the North to convince you there are better places. (Not that Iowa isn’t a really nice place in months other than your typical January)

          • I dunno man… going from Atlanta to Ioway is like going from the mall food court to boxes of MRE 11 and 9.

          • In Vermont, the saying is “10 months of winter and 2 months of bad sledding”.

          • I’d much rather put up with -20F, which doesn’t happen all that often and even only at night, then put up with 95F with 80% humidity, which is more or less normal for the summer months in Atlanta.

    • Mean yearly temperature in San Diego , CA… 17C/63F…

      Its horrible here, please everyone move out for your own safety!

      I should really put together a PSA about this awful average temperature…maybe then housing will become affordable

      • In the UK I think the lowest temperature that heating is ever really set to is 16C (and sort of regarded as a hypothermia kind of temperatute.) Heating/aircon would normally be set to about 21C which I find a bit cool. The average temperature in Singapore must be about 27C or maybe a little higher than that.

    • Decades of migration from the northern tier of the US to the sun belt says the authors of this bogosity or liars, morons, or just makin stuff up.
      Here in Southern Florida the average annual temp is in the mid 70’s F. And only that cool because of several months of nights that average about 60°F in mid-Winter.
      I can assure everyone that survival under these conditions is more than possible…it is pert-near a guarantee!

    • It’ll be perfect weather in Montana…finally! Finland will be able to grow tomatoes! Lol

      • We actually grow tomatoes but mostly in green houses. I would like to see a rule where waste heat from our nuclear power plants would be used to cheaply heat greenhouses to produce glowing(!) tomatoes. I really like nuclear power!

  1. Sydney (annually average around 17.8C) and the whole East coast of Australia is obviously totally unlivable.

    Even Melbourne (15.6C annual average) is unlivable..

    Right ????

    HOW did this load of junk-science ever get published ?

    • Because the reviewing dorks are as dangerous as the dorks that wrote it.

      • this study(term used loosely)without any editing, could be the friday funy quite easily;-)

    • Here in Hawaii the average is in the mid 70’s F. People are leaving here by the plane loads to get back to a much cooler climate. Not

      • I lived in Nigeria for a couple of years (>100 m people) and it never got as low as 15 C the entire time.

        All the times I worked in Senegal, the average was in the high 20’s. It never got close to 15 once.

        I guess it depends on what your definition of “live” is. There is no other sensible explanation. The claim is baseless as evidenced by all the evidence.

      • From here, average temperature in Hawaii ranges from a low in Jan/Feb of 23°C (73°F) to a high in Aug/Sep/Oct of 27°C (80°F) — well above the 11°-15°C ideal range they claim. I’ve never noticed hoards of climate refugees trying to flee Hawaii, but maybe they only come out at night when it’s cooler.

        The article states their figures are “Mean Annual Temperature” (MAT), but I don’t see where they define the term. It could mean something different than the commonly-reported average temperature.

        • I lived in Hawai’i. My building had no heating or cooling, as it was unnecessary. In my view, the weather there is perfect.

      • You forget. The average bozo reading this USA Today article (headline only, on their phone) has never taken the course that would tell them what “15C” is in real life. They think it probably means spontaneous combustion or something. But the headline will have instilled its propaganda purpose; instill fear, stress, and guilt in the reader.

        Crock o’sheepdip notwithstanding.

    • I have spent quite a bit of time living in Taiwan in various parts of the coastal plain. I remember seeing many people in heavy jackets and gloves when winter temperatures dropped to a frigid 20° C. I became acclimated to the summer temperatures (and the humidity) but NA expats who just arrived would have their shirts soaked in sweat as they walked around Hsinchu.

      Taiwan’s average temperature is 22°C. There are productive farms throughout the coastal plain and up into the foothills of the central mountain range. I have developed a taste for many tropical fruits which could not be grown at average temperatures of 15°C.

      • I visited Manila at least 5 times around 15 years ago.

        The first visit it did feel like a heat anvil was on my neck and shoulders, it felt HOT!

        But subsequent visits were much better because I dressed better, hydrated ahead of time.

        Most people can adjust over time.

        • I was in the jungle of the Philippines a bunch and it would get over 120 degrees during the day and 90’s at night (99% humidity) – the nights seemed cold. We drank gals of water a day.

      • I lived in Tamsui for a little over a year. During a typical January day, sunny and 65F, I’d go out for a walk in shorts and t-shirt. I’d actually have people asking me if I’m freezing. To me it was as perfect of weather as it can get. The natives really are in parkas! Especially at night if it gets down into the 50’s.

      • I spend four months of the year in 40 C temps, Funny more people are moving here in the Phoenix area. Yes I has AC, yet people lived here year around long before AC. The people how service my car work in it. I will be mowing the HOA dog park in 38C + temps tomorrow funny i won’t drop dead do to heat stock.

    • Yep, I really don’t understand these numbnuts. I live in Brisbane and I find that from about now through to August pretty uncomfortable with the cold and wind without being fully rugged up. Being 6 ft tall, 60 kg and zero body fat, if you left me outside overnight in t-shirt and shorts in their “optimal” 11 deg C, I would be a bit of a real mess come morning. Hardly optimal in my book.

      • @diggs: I can’t handle Brisbane in July. Up here at 19 South and it drops below 16°C My bones ache and I have dreams of frost covered hillsides. When Captain Cook sailed up this coast, he said it wasn’t suitable habitat for white people, and should be left to the indigenous residents. I can’t find the reference in what is reported to be his log. I think it has been censored. Funny thing is, you might form the same opinion if you sailed up the coast where Cook came from. Wind blasted trees grow a bit out of the ground then get bent over 90 degrees. Only place I have ever been where it could be freezing fog and blowing a gale at the same time.

        • BF in blackwater complained about the cold nights
          yeah?
          14c
          ok a real change from the usual 20ish
          but my daytime temps for the few days he was muttering were? 12c to 14
          and it was cold stherly winds carried ice i swear;-), I kept the fire going during the day
          nights are 4c to 8c recently

    • We surely must let India know that it’s too hot there for human beings to flourish.

    • Fred, haven’t you ever edited a 6-page school newsletter where you had enough content for the first 5 pages, but were stuck for the sixth?

      THAT’s how these loads of junk science get published.

  2. What’s the Average Temperature in Florida? 77.15 °F population: about 21 million

    • Florida covers a lot of latitude….31 north at the top..to about 24/5 north at the bottom
      …everything from hard freezes…to palm trees and mangoes

      • A hard freeze about every 3 or 4 years is my guessimate. Did not have one the last two and I’m in N.Florida.

        Just remember these authors live where there are headlines: “Heat Wave this week, could reach 80 degrees”

        • The southern most parts of Florida are a completely different climate zone than even the central inland portions of the state.
          There has never once been frost in Key West.
          Southwest and southeast coasts are tropical savannah.
          Inland 30 miles from these coastlines and it gets nippy at least a few nights almost every year.
          You can easily grow coconuts in Bonita Springs, but no way in the middle of the Everglades, or even Immokalee.
          Looking at what can grow where is the easiest way to determine climate zones, and in fact this is how they are mostly defined.
          Looking at what is “native” fauna in a given locale will delineate the long term maxima and minima of precip and temp.

        • Back in the 70’s, a couple of hard freezes killed most of the orange trees around Orlando.

  3. Jeepers. “…it leaves societies less able to cope with future crises like new pandemics…”

  4. And Brisbane, its average coldest month is 15C

    Must be really tough on human livability.

    • We live in Brisbane, right now as we move into Autumn and look towards Winter we have already broken out the blankets and are running around in warm clothes. Three nights this week they are predicting our minimum will hit 15C. We are already thinking of putting the heater on.

      Good Lord! Where do they get these climate activists from?

      • Living 600 km North of Brisbane, temperatures have fallen to 18C at night, thank goodness for the wood fire, we would freeze from the cold otherwise.
        I have a tree in the front yard, a custard apple, dying from this unseasonally cold weather.

        From memory, the paper is based on a theory from colonial times to explain the dominance of Europeans. Living in Australia, it was taught in school, with the teachers laughing at the foolish Europeans. In colonial times, in the hot Asian regions, ordinary Asians had a superior standard of living on a number of metrics. The above theory was debunked many decades ago.

        Now its back.

      • I’m thinking that this bunch are from northern England where a run of temperatures near 80℉ (26℃) would give them heat stroke.

        • 26℃ is just getting optimal here in Brisbane, if it was like that all day, every day of the year I would not complain.

  5. Another report from people who don’t have any idea how big and complex the world, and the people who live in it are. Good posting Eric, but here’s the catch: millions of low-information persons (I really mean stupid, but that is not politically correct) believe this kind of nonsense, and they find a person who can see CO2 and double-down on their beliefs. Sheesh! What a disgusting bunch of nonsense the idea is that fantastic vacation hotspots aren’t good to visit anymore? As soon as the Chicom virus gets settled down I’m headed for the beach in Florida, where I expect to flourish. Stay sane and safe (drink cold beverages when you are on the beach!)

  6. This takes the cake for the stupidest climate panic claim I have ever seen. I live in California – with a population of forty million people. Almost all of them are here BECAUSE the temperature is above 70F at least six months a year. The only thing I can think of which would lead to this kind of idiotic conclusion is legalized pot. Maybe the authors ought to swear off the Indica for a month and re-evaluate their claims.

  7. And people in Oz are internally migrating from places like Melbourne because its cold to the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast of Queensland because it is warmer. Just another paper by an uninformed idiot that could have been put to good use a couple of weeks ago during the GREAT TOILET PAPER SHORTAGE

    • more like retiring , just like they do to Florida

      Melbourne is booming and on track to become the largest city, which isnt a good thing

  8. The problem is that the daytime high temperatures aren’t increasing that much. What’s driving the increasing temperature is nighttime lows. link

    So, people won’t be dying of the heat and fewer people will be dying of the cold.

    Punchline:

    Third statistician: “We got him!”

    It’s a joke about averages. You’ve probably heard it.

    • My favorite statistician joke is:
      A mathematician, an economist and a statistician were asked, what is 2+2?
      The mathematician immediately answered “4”
      The economist thought then answered “somewhere between 3 and 5”
      The statistician answered “what do you want it to be?”

    • @ cBob — I hadn’t. So, I searched and found it! 🙂

      “Three statisticians go deer hunting with bows and arrows.
      They spot a big buck and take aim.
      One shoots and his arrow flies off three metres to the right.
      The second shoots and his arrow flies off three metres to the left.
      The third statistician jumps up and down yelling; We got him! We got him!”

      Cute. 🙂

      And a FAR better use of my reading time than reading that pitiful “study.”

    • Yep! Once again we see supposed climate “scientists” failing 6th grade math.

      They *assume* that a higher average means maximums are going up, never considering that the average can go up based on the minimum going up while the maximums stay stagnant or go down. (like your statistician joke I’m sure you know what “assume” means)

      If all these climate alarmists would move from “average” temperature to cooling and heating degree-days they would be far better able to actually describe the environment.

      Of course then they wouldn’t be able to depend on measurements taken evrey 14 days or so (satellite) or on imputing temperatures to the >50% of the globe with no surface measurement devices (land and sea) or on hiding data by using “averages”.

  9. The real idiots are the editors of USA Today. Although I wrote a column for my University paper I had very little contact with Journalism majors. The exception was a guy in a Critical Thinking class who reeked of pot each and every session. I got a contact high sitting behind this guy. Don’t remember him contributing much to the class. Probably works at USA Today now. Maybe he’s the publisher.

    • In my early 1960s first job as a cadet reporter, there were no journalism courses at universities.
      What I did get though, was a rumpled, usually-hungover and grumpy editor whose first comment about most of my pieces was – “now why the f@#k would any newspaper reader want to waste 3 minutes of his day on this cr@p?”

      Then he would banish me to writing preemptive eulogies for persons of note, with the instruction – “here you go, you can write as much bullsh1t as you like about these jokers, they won’t be around to sue us when we publish”

  10. By the way, we have just had the coldest May Day in 70 plus years in southern NSW and the ACT. It has snowed at least a month earlier than usual. Bring on that global warming I say!

  11. Maybe we’ll finally be able to see what Greenland and Antarctica look like without ice. A scientific wonderland. We’ll be able to plant more trees there too.

    • MAGA (Make Antarctica Great Again) Its biodiversity will be much improved without all that ice. None of my neighbors, except the crazy cat lady, would approve of their houses being covered by a mile of ice as they were 20,000 years ago. Also, the people who get flooded out of coastal areas will have a place to which to move.

      When people calculate the amount of land flooded if Greenland and Antarctica melt, do they also account for the land area gained in Greenland and Antarctica?

      • Make Antarctica Great Again!

        </blockquote

        That is so cool, cBob. Er, I mean hot! 😅

        Vote TRUMP, 2020! (for MAGA — Crank up the wonderful CO2-producing factories! Pump up the petroleum industry!! Aaaaaand, “Drivers….. start — your — engines!” BAM! Step on the gas and accelerate to a greener planet!😎🤑💃 )

        (and re: that “study” — LOL)

      • Unfortunately most of Greenland is below current mean sea level so Greenland would become a ring of islands around a central sea unless and until and potential Isostatic Rebounding occurs.
        A fair amount of Antarctica also sits below MSL prior to any rebounding

  12. It’s just amazing how people have survived and done so well in Singapore and Jakarta for all these years past. This study has clearly been done by people who need to get out more, away from their computersc and models.

  13. Let’s assume, if you want to be wrong, that global temperatures did warm up, and exceeded tolerable temperatures, ignoring blatant evidence that these researchers are wrong. What would the result be for the huge, lightly populated areas of Canada and Northern Asia?

    I suspect more land mass would fall in their temperature niche than there is now.

  14. Amazingly stupid. We are a tropical species with a thermal neutral temperature of 28 deg C. Tropical and sub tropical regions have been home to some great civilisations : China, Egypt, Minoan, many in Africa and Mesoamerica… …….

  15. “We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. ”
    https://www.nature.com/articles/nature15725

  16. Try -40 degrees for a wake up call. In contrast to their narrow little optimum, we’ve had swings of 50 degrees Celsius in a few days. Their average is something we wave at in passing. We certainly don’t stagnate with the same weather all the time.

    Just the average temperature fits nicely in a nut shell. And belongs there.

  17. that narrow band they claim humans inhabit….stretches from outside Antarctica…to the North pole

    …and they blame people living in the extreme latitudes on farming…they have it totally backasswards
    …at one time South Florida produced 90% of our winter produce…they fail to think about what supports those people in the winter

    and all at the same time other scientists are saying we don’t get enough Vit D

    …this passes for “science” these days

  18. ‘According to a new study”….
    of the future!
    They should be investing in the markets if their crystal ball is so accurate !

    😉

  19. There is a re-run on TV of a Nature series narrated by David Attenborough. It has mentioned several times that the tropics compose 3% of the land surface, but contain 50% of the species of life. From that, it certainly appears that life in general prefers warmth over cold. Humans tend to do well anywhere there is lots of food. If their bellies are full, they are generally content to spend the hottest part of the day in a hammock, perhaps sucking on a straw stuck into a glass with ice cubes and little paper umbrellas.

    Some professors write papers like this because they don’t have what it takes to do anything else.

    • Sadly (not an excuse, just morally weak (iow: average) human beings trying to earn a living),

      they don’t have what it takes to do anything else is no doubt true.

      What it takes: funding. 🙁

      ****************

      cui bono — gotta free academia from the slimy tentacles of the “renewables” “investors.”

  20. This article is fundamentally racist, in effect saying “if you don’t come from northern Europe then your are crap.” It seems that the Gorbal Warming religion Trumps the Political Correctness religion.

  21. “In a curious scientific anomaly we find that, even at an average global temperature of 15ºC, the stupid – it burns”.

  22. And here I was wondering why I wasn’t “flourishing”. Temperature today is rising to 19C, help! And tomorrow morning just 11C. And on an annual basis my local temperatures vary from a low near zero to highs above 40C. How can I possibly stay in that 15C bubble?

  23. Is there any medical data in the study? Surely there have been health and safety studies that can more accurately delineate appropriate temperatures.

    This appears similar to using proxies to determine the information for a study. There should be no reason for this with the state of medical knowledge at present.

    I suspect obesity is the largest confounding variable in the inability to withstand higher temperature.

  24. Let these twits spend a summer in Maracaibo. Like the natives do, and have done for several hundred years. To misquote the beloved Cat Talk guys Tom and Ray Malliozzi “Doesn’t anyone screen these calls?”

  25. Look: USA Today needs to sell papers to survive & this is how they go about it.

    Think a “Climate is Fine” headline would do the trick?

    I’m embarrassed that I took the time to comment on this drivel!!!

  26. A lot of the scientific and medical instrumentation designed and built in the Nederlands have poor heat tolerance. If the equipment is run above 68F for an extended period of time it will deteriorate. The power supplies and the power handling circuits will be the first to fail. Cooling fans have to be installed in vital sign monitors if they are run outside of an air conditioned building.

  27. Marten from Holland has been eating to many bulbs recently. need we say any more?? regards, Trevor,from New Zealand.

  28. The A/C in my bedroom is set to 77 degrees F at night (25C), it feels very cool to me. The outside temp is 30-35C (86-95 degrees F), we live just fine in these temperature just sweat a bit when working outside. According to Micheal Mann parts of Thailand are already not able to be inhabited by people due to global warming.

  29. So the early hominids and the Homo Sapiens that evolved from them in Africa lived and thrived there in temperatures that never averaged more than 59 degrees Fahrenheit.

    Yeah, right.

  30. So the early hominids and the Homo Sapiens that evolved from them in Africa never lived and thrived in temperatures that exceeded an average of 59 degrees Fahrenheit.

    Yeah, right.

  31. Look – be fair to the authors of this paper:

    – The paper suggests that historically large numbers (not all) of people lived in the temperate climatic region. Its hard to argue with this – look at history from the roman time forward.
    – They also suggest that hard manual agricultural labour is challenging when temperatures rise and that the productivity of such manual labour decreases when it gets hot. This is also difficult to dispute as 1 hour of digging in fence posts will prove.

    it’s just unfortunate that they didn’t consider relatively recent trends of urbanisation and mechanisation. I mean, be fair the agricultural revolution has only been going 300 years and the industrial revolution around 180 years. Its takes a bit of time for academics to notice these things.

    • They could also suggest that manual labour is challenging when the ground is frozen.

      Europe, In My Opinion, succeeded in spite of the temperature, not because of it.

      Winter. Snow. Nothing grows. You successfully spend the non freezing months producing enough food and learning the skills to store it for several months or you starve and die.

      People familiar with the area known as the Fertile Crescent? So called, apparently, because it was fertile. Also, and this is the important part in context of our story, it wasn’t in this 15C zone.

      To call this paper junk science is an insult to junk, because at least junk can be recycled.

    • I have friends who hail from Portugal, where it is VERY hot in the summer. They said when they were young, they would get up before dawn and work the fields in the cool of the day. During the blistering heat, they would siesta.

      Gee, I guess the peasant class isn’t so dumb after all.

    • John,

      I think everyone *is* being fair to the authors.

      1. Large numbers of historic peoples did not do agriculture. They lived as hunter/gartherers. So who cares if agriculture was hard when it was warm?

      2. Manual agricultural labour is challenging under ANY temperature. Anyone who thinks temperature makes a big difference has never hoed a single row of corn in the summer when its warm! They have never used a scythe to harvest wheat in the spring when temperatues are moderate. The real challenge is to stay hydrated and is not surviving high temperatures.

      BTW, I have dug holes for fence posts, in the spring, in the summer, and in the fall. It is physically demanding whatever the tempeature. Again, the most important thing is to stay hydrated when you are sweating.

  32. It is comforting they set their Doomsday TEOTWAWKI fifty years hence… gives them just adequate time to complete their careers before they could be held accountable for their failed prediction.

    • Yes, it’s important to get the timescale of doom right. It needs to be short enough to be scary. But it also needs to be long enough so that, when the doom is due to arrive and everything is fine, everybody will have forgotten the prediction.
      Personally, I would have reduced the timescale of doom to thirty years. But, then, I’m not a “scientist”.
      Chris

  33. About weather, but way off topic. Is it of any relevance to anything, that the upper stratosphere’s northern jet stream came to a halt a few days ago, and is now building up steam in the reverse direction? At 100 000′, for months, the far north, and the far south jets have been streaming west-east, with an equatorial jet streaming east-west. In the last week or so, the southern jet is x3 as wide, while the northern jet just ‘petered out’, and now is increasing it’s momentum east-west.
    I’m glad the science is so settled.

    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=29;126;1&l=wind-10hpa

  34. From the above article: “According to a new study, people don’t thrive in places where the average annual temperature is higher than 15C / 59F.”

    That’s a patently absurd statement. The “new study” authors obviously never considered what is actually happening on Earth.

    Beyond the pictorial examples of the coastal cities of Singapore and Jakarta provided by WUWT author Mr. Worrall in his rebuttal of that claim, I’ll just point out an example of a city that is located far inland from any body of water:
    The country of Ecuador is bisected (in the north) by the Earth’s equator and its capital Quito is just 26 km south of the equator. The average temperature of Ecuador ranges from 26 °C (79 °F) in the Southern Hemisphere’s summer (December-January) to 23 °C (73 °F) in winter. Relative humidity is constantly high and makes the heat sweltering.

    The current population of Quito is 1.8 million people.

    • . . . Quito’s population in 2015 was about 1.7 million people, and it has been sustaining a yearly population GROWTH rate since then of between 1.4 and 1.8%.

  35. Where do those clowns go during their holidays ?

    The right place for such a sharticle is babylonbee and still, perhaps too dumb, even for them.

    • The Babylon Bee is exquisite satire… among the very best of its kind… nearly indistinguishable from reality, as often is for the best satire.

  36. With this Pandemic lockdown, most cities in the world have come to a standstill with skies empty of airlines.
    Under such circumstances, would there be a drastic drop in CO2 emission since world transportation industry (car and airplanes
    are said to be the great emitters) has come to a standstill, you would expect that NOAA would report a drop in CO2. No! NOAA
    reported for May. 3, 2020 418.12 ppm from May. 3, 2019
    414.81 ppm . Look it up here: https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2

    • Ah yes, but the CO2 we produce is not only sentient, it is also capable of breeding and that’s why levels continue to rise despite the drop in our emissions.
      Okay, it’s crap, but it’s more plausible than the explanation that will be published any day now..

  37. Most of the warming, as others have noted is warmer temps at night and warmer temps in winter, with this little tiny bit of warming we have had the last 150 years being especially true for the northern hemisphere. So far this all has been about .8 C warmer than 1880, which was already fairly cooler at the end of the Little Ice Age. And this is according to the global warming experts that write the IPCC reports. They might make claims about what temps will be in 2070 or the end of this century, but at best, all that is a WAG and not worthy of real science. What is the right temperature supposed to be?

    Anyway, the tropics can’t get much hotter than it already is, which in places has always been real hot. And humid. And if it tries to get hotter, the thunderstorm will just form 15-20 minutes earlier than it would have, and re-balance with cooler air coming down from higher up in the atmosphere with the cooler rain, while the rising heat/cloud heat already escaped to space. I don’t think there is anything to worry about, other than having A/C if you live where it is hot. Or at least a good fan and a wet towel. When I am in the tropics where it is real hot with neither, I wrap a wet towel around my head and even my upper torso, and can manage to stay fairly comfortable. Or a dip in the ocean or pool, and my nightmares about -40 with a wind slowly fade at night. That is my real fear.

  38. < The only thing that can stop this happening is a rapid cut in carbon emissions.”

    Always that "carbon" emission, instead of CO2.

  39. More junk science, every year these goons produce more junk telling us we are going to die decades in advance,
    In the 80s it was 2010,( even sooner if you followed the high priest of climate doom al gore) in the 90s it was 2020 and so on and so on, we must give them a B for consistency though , every doom and gloom junk paper has been consistently wrong.

  40. I really don’t understand why the type of people who carry out these studies are allowed to leave primary school.

  41. Janice…..How can you imply that these souls of virtue are driven by FUNDING?

    In 2009 Marten Scheffer was one of three winners of the Dutch Spinoza Prize and received a 2.5 million euro grant.[…..As there was no fourth Spinoza Prize awarded in 2009, Scheffer and his co-winners Albert van den Berg and Michel Ferrari asked the NWO to reward them the remaining prize money, which they would spend on a collaborative research effort.[3] Their efforts culminated in a research paper on migraine published in PLOS ONE in 2013.[4][5][6] The paper claimed that a critical tipping point of neurons started a migraine attack…Ferrari is a Neurologist and Migraine expert…The other 2 are not

    Sainthood is not enough!

    • No, according to AOC (native American) the ‘drop dead’ year is 2030.
      According to GT (Swedish high society dropout) you should already panic.

  42. How did that pass peer review?
    ”It is assumed that moderate climates with ambient temperatures of around 21°C need minimal human energy investment in comparison to heat and cold exposure.” I remember that at Uni even a slightly higher physiological ambient temperature optimum was mentioned.

    (Human whole body cold adaptation byHein A.M. Daanen and Wouter D. Van Marken Lichtenbelt)

    • The human body is quite adaptable to external temperatures, at least over a certain range.

      Consider that it seeks to maintain an average internal temperature of about 37 C (the famous 98.6 F oral thermometer temperature in the US). Many people start to feel cold (and thus add insulating clothing) when ambient temperatures fall below about 16 C (61 F), especially in dry climates that enhance the body’s natural evaporative cooling capability. In the other direction, many people start to feel excessively hot (and thus shed normal clothing, start perspiring excessively, and/or seek out shade or air conditioning) when ambient temperatures rise above about 32 C (90 F), especially in humid climates that decrease the body’s natural evaporative cooling capability. So, the human body is naturally “comfortable” with a body-to-ambient differential temperature in the range of about +5 to +21 C (+9 to +38 F) . . . such temperature differentials being necessary to shed the heat generated by metabolic activity, including muscle use.

      The average of the 16 C and 32 C “limits” mentioned above is 24 C . . . not too different than the 21 C mentioned in the quoted statement.

      Of course, the human body can survive much wider differential temperatures while being “uncomfortable”.

  43. Paul Ehrlich, is that you?

    At least you seem to have learned since you wrote “The Population Bomb”. Back then your doomsday predictions were only 10 years away. Must have been embarrassing when it turned out completely opposite. At least with the predicted doomsday 50 years out you’ll be long dead when it doesn’t happen.

  44. Urban heat island is preferred if You see where most people live.
    3-10 degrees hotter than rural area.

    • UHI is a real thing and happens where population densities are the highest. So a lot of people will actually feel hotter in these high density population areas. Reducing CO2 and emissions back to preindustrial levels would not change UHI since that is solar retention of heat in thermal masses and just humans causing heating from all activity. Other measures should be considered for UHI relief such as more urban forest and reducing albedo of the city. Might help a bit.

      But it doesn’t have anything much to do with overall global warming throughout the entire planet. This is a major distinction that should be explained in the very first paragraph of the study. This is the root of the matter, but somehow some people will try and say the entire planet will be roasting. The entire global warming part scare tactic is disingenuous to this fact.

      • The BEST study has discounted the UHI in affacting global climate.

        “We observe the opposite of an urban heating ffect over the
        period 1950 to 2010, with a slope of -0.10 ± 0.24°C/100yr (2σ error) in
        the Berkeley Earth global land temperature average. The confidence
        interval is consistent with a zero urban heating effect, and at most
        a small urban heating effect (less than 0.14°C/100yr, with 95%
        confidence) on the scale of the observed warming (1.9 ± 0.1°C/100 yr
        since 1950 in the land average from Figure 5A). ”

        http://static.berkeleyearth.org/papers/UHI-GIGS-1-104.pdf

        • Yes, you’re right. It might affect the local weather a little and perhaps add humidity to the concentrated population areas from all the concentration of the people so densely packed together, but of course it won’t add much to the overall global temperature. And of course all these people will feel the local effect of the UHI effect as temperature rise and increase in humidity, so the study might be partially correct, but for the wrong reasons.

  45. Hey, just a reminder, we had a heat wave last year here in the UK.
    It lasted precisely one day or half a day where I live to be more accurate. That heat wave was the main talking point of the BBC for days ahead of time and they looked for the most telling indicator it was happening. They found a thermometer in the sun that reached around 35 deg C. There you go, proof positive a UK heat wave.
    We used to have natural awareness that weather happened. Clearly not any more.
    When did we lose that natural understanding of variation within normal existence?

    • The BBC yesterday forecast frost for some parts of the UK this coming weekend.
      Good of them to warn us , will leave the rest of the marigolds in the greenhouse until it warms up agan.

  46. This is tragic comic.
    Regarding the 2070 issue, I wanted to see how it was going with Naomi Siebt.
    A week ago she made a German spoken video as a kind of excuse and explanation to why she mostly make English spoken videos:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB4JIcB9ztY

    One commenter writes: “Greta Thunberg add before the video… lol”

    On a more serious note.
    Naomi explains in the video that, she is no longer with the Heartland Institute because she was warned officially from German side, that she through the Heartland Institute was spreading conspiracy theories, which could have series consequences for her.
    Naomi will continue her great work though, but only with her own money and the contributions she might get from followers.

    Had Naomi been a normal ignorant Green and panicked, that the world would end in 2030, 2050 or 2070, then she would have met little resistance and much fame.

  47. Anyone who has lived in a hot semi-desert area knows that thriving depends not on the temperature but on availability of water. If a good supply of water is available then plants and fruit trees thrive which helps people thrive. They do not have the problems that occur in wetter areas with their crops.

    Even before the era of modern air conditioning and architectural designs people lived and even thrived in areas like this – when they had water. It should come as no surprise when one looks at buildings around the Mediterranean area, dating back thousands of years, that they were able to cope with the dry and hot summers both through building ingenuity and irrigation.

  48. we visited Antigua a few years ago, from the UK, and on a tour with a local guide he happened to mention the temperature had once fallen to 16C, from an average of 27C. The locals were convinced they would die of the cold! 16C is shirt sleeve weather in the UK. Visiting Malta, in March, and walking around, again in shirt sleeves, we were amazed to see locals in parkas, hats and gloves.

  49. “The authors predict that by 2070,  much of the world’s population is likely to live in climate conditions that are ‘warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish.’

    That “niche” is equivalent to average yearly temperatures of roughly 52 to 59 Fahrenheit.”

    Surely, they meant Celsius? But, then, I live in inland Australia and have done so largely without air conditioners.

    • I should have added a sarcasm tag. But then some things are so unfathomable, they’re beyond the reach of sarcasm.

  50. 118 degrees F during the day dropping rapidly to 0 degrees F at night before rising rapidly again at dawn could easily give an average pretty close to the lower end of the niche (52 degrees F).

    The stated niche is, thus, rather meaningless without further explanation.

    • An average without a standard deviation is very unscientific. Last month_s average was 65. What was the range of temps I experienced?

  51. Centre-leftist, I live in the Central West of NSW and we got down to -1 C one day this week and we’ve had a few around 1C and 2C minimum temps too and more forecast, and we’re still not into winter! The maximum’s have been as low as 11C to 15C. These temperatures are anomalies for this time of year. Our weather data isn’t recorded at the weekends, so many of our anomalies are not recorded. Worse still they average what they do record, minus up to 10 days readings and put them in the monthly almanac! Meaningless.

    We had more than a few days over 40C last summer too, normal for this part of the world. The thing is Australia is such a vast country and it wouldn’t be difficult to cherry pick temperatures at either end of the scale. And in regards to high temperatures in Australia, you can get them anywhere in the country at some time or other, some are anomalies and some are normal for that particular locality. Tropical Australia has a similar temperature all year round, day and night. That would be hot and humid and the people who live there wouldn’t live anywhere else.

  52. Implies people in higher temps have not flourished while those in colder climes have — Suprised it got by PC peer-review.

  53. Boy that extra 0.5C is going to be a bitch.
    Particularly if you live in the virtual reality of a broken climate model.

  54. Anyone else notice that the timeline for these sort of claims is changing? Instead of happening in 10,12, or 20 years, now it’s juuussst over the horizon. Near enough to still shock the folks who will be shocked anyways (and to collect more grant $$$), but far enough away that nobody will remember if/when the claim turns out to be total BS.

  55. MELTING AND DE-ICEING ARE TWO SEPARATE PROCESS. DE-ICING BY CONCENTRATED DEICERS.
    Why Raveendran Narayanan is different from 31, 847 Global warming & Environmental SCIENTISTS?
    https://joychenputhukulam.com/newsMore.php?newsId=37630&fbclid=IwAR3enlkhpzxZj50-6stPtN1PO-KHAmiRZmlc0z_kVQk3d_wveFRKmSYTuJk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hax7EPFysqY

    #WhyMeltingIceShelvesInContactWithSeaWater? #DEICINGbyConcSeaWater
    “AIR CONDITIONING THE MOTHER EARTH ”
    https://simpleflying.com/australia-a319-antarctica-rescue-mission/

    #-30°CAntarcticaRescueMission

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2020/03/07/arctic-sea-ice-icebreaker-trapped-resupplying-moasic/
    -30⁰C, SECOND RUSSIAN ICE CUTTER RESCUEING ANOTHER ICE CUTTER AND 40 CLIMATE RESEARCHERS!!!!!!!!
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/51711127

    https://lnkd.in/edUAPXM

    #GlobalWarmingGroupsSettingFires
    #ArrestCriminalActivists
    #SaveMotherEarthFromCriminals
    #CO2GangsDistroyingMotherEarth
    #unep #unfccc #noaa #ipcc #pulitzerprize #nobelpeaceprizecommitte #350org #notco2 #nasa #cop26 #waterprize #stopsearisenow
    #ClimateKliptomania #ClimateHoax #ClimateStrike
    #airconditioningthemotherearth #ChallengingGlacialScintists
    #earthscieenceconferencecommitty
    #raveendrannarayanan
    @Raveendrannaray

  56. I think I got it, they believe in evolution through adaptation except where climate is concerned then it’s extinction.

    No room for divine design it is all accidental no matter how complex. Yet they predict beyond their lifetime.

  57. An optimum range of 11 °C to 15 °C ( a questionable claim at best), even if true, does not mean that people can’t live and thrive outside that range! Even a minor investigation would also reveal that people are more likely to thrive outside the upper end of that range than outside the lower end of the range.

  58. I’ve got the opposite problem. It’s -30C in the winter and +30C in the summer, mean 0C?

    It’stoo hot in the summer and too cold in the winter and talk about climate change? The weather never stops changing.

  59. Climate change causes Belly Button lint.
    The hospitals and clinics will be inundated with people, getting their belly buttons cleaned out.
    This is the worlds last chance to turn things around before 2080 !
    Oh! the horror of all that BBL.
    It will ravage all of us.

  60. Last time that I checked in January, here in Southern Indiana, almost everything was dead or dormant outside(only way to survive the killing cold) and the wild animals were, as usual at this time of year, struggling to find food and warmth and were living off of reserves from better living conditions before it got cold……trying to make it until life giving warmth returned in the Spring.

    Happens ever year too with some creatures having the ability to migrate south to avoid the killing cold or hibernate under life giving warmth returns.

    Under these conditions, we are to be believe that an increase of 1 deg. C, which is how much warmer it might be in 2070, is unlivable?

    And the global warming has affected the coldest places during the coldest times of year the most. Where the cold Winters are the toughest to survive!

    It was 2 deg. warmer than this during the Holocene climate OPTIMUM, between 9,000 to 5,000 years ago. There we less Arctic sea ice. All of legit science referred to it as an OPTIMUM because life did so much better.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_climatic_optimum

    Now, as we go deeper into the current climate optimum, the same conditions are being referred to as a climate CRISIS because politics has hijacked climate science.
    CO2 is a beneficial gas in all scientific fields: Biology, agronomy, zoology, anthropology, climate…….etc.
    The only field that defines it as pollution?
    Politics.
    Supposedly we are killing the planet. Earth sure has a strange way of reacting to dying………..by massively greening up!

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

  61. It was 2 deg. warmer than this during the Holocene climate OPTIMUM, between 9,000 to 5,000 years ago. There we less Arctic sea ice. All of legit science referred to it as an OPTIMUM because life did so much better.

    Should say 2 deg. warmer than this in the high latitudes of North America.

  62. Average temp where I live (upstate NY) is 9.1 degrees C. I would like some of that 15+ pulleeeezeeee.

  63. Maybe they’re really skeptics working from the “inside” to moderate the shrill message of the alarmists?

  64. Yada, yada, yada. I can play that game, too. By 2050, airheaded leftists may be so oppressive that life in America will be intolerable. See how easy it is? Except my dire prediction may be more likely to come to pass.

  65. I grew up on a vineyard in an irrigated semi-arid area of Australia. Started working with my father carting grapes in February at 12 yo. Was doing an adults day of work by fifteen in temperatures rarely below 20°C for the whole day. The mean maximum for Febuary in my teenage years was never below 31°C and it was 35°C when I was thirteen. We would pick up 16-18 pound buckets of grapes, stack them on a trailer and then throw them onto tiers of chicken wire up to 8 feet high or into winery bins.
    https://images.app.goo.gl/cpQcYU8vbRVBzkQu8

    In January of 1990, I also worked in a dried fruit packing shed. Three of us would have to put the remainder last year’s harvest back into storage as it hadn’t been packed in time. Two would pick up 35 lb buckets of sultanas coming from the hopper, then throw them into wooden ‘sweat’ boxes. Four would fill a box so the third person would stack those boxes until too high and start a new a stack. We would do about 40 tons in a shift, except the very first day and the second day.

    The second day, we started at 2 pm and the temperature hit 46.9°C. No air con or even a fan so after about 30 tons, I cramped and we walked off. Doing it in 30°C was a doodle. We would have done 50 tons at 15°C to keep warm.

  66. The disingenuous of the climate alarmists is beyond stupid. South Florida would be uninhabitable, given that its inhabitants are free to move. Yet it is where the bulk of the 3rd largest state’s population lives. I should know, I grew up there. Went there from being, what, in the bottom of the top 10 in the 60s? And gee, why do so many folks love Hawaii?? They weird. And what about Africa? India? SE Asia? Wow. Stupid is as stupid does.

    Yes, those silly humans, with their A/C, heating, irrigation, farming machines. Unlike animals, the highest density of which are in hot climates, they are totally unable to cope with a changing environment (even if it happened). And what do they say about the flu, and possibly COVID19, disappearing in the summer? Details. Details. Just technicalities.

    Do these people ever wonder how foolish they look?

  67. We just moved away from Wellington NZ to my home town in Germany. Wellington has an average annual temperature of just under 14 Degrees, so according to the above study near enough perfect, and oh boy am I glad I don’t have to put up with that cold anymore. Plus flourishing isn’t really the term I would choose to describe people coping in that annual average. I’m a little disappointed in our low spring temperatures here so far. My Father, who’s a huge AGW believer and solar subsidy harvester, promised me 30 Degrees in March, as I write this it’s 3 degrees outside.

  68. I’m an electrical engineer. Our extremely complex) calculations and computer models (based on the same theory) work. EE is a correct example of settled science. In fact, it can be shown that Special Relativity is simply a theorem in Maxwell’s electrodynamic theory (since the Lorentz Transformations, the mathematical basis of Relativity, can be directly derived from Maxwell; see Dr. Markus Zahn’s excellent text “Electromagnetic Field Theory,” Wiley 1979, pp. 503-505). No matter how incomprehensibly weird the predictions of Einstein/Maxwell’s Theory, they have NEVER been wrong. THAT is the evidence of a CORRECT theory: Correct predictions. In that regard, AGW climate “theory” has a rather miserable record. Maybe they are wise to make their predictions beyond the lifetimes of most living persons.

  69. This is like the “Pope” pretending that climate caused the covid virus: nothing more than reactionary fibbing to promote a fictional narrative.

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