Thoughts of a Mathematician
This article assumes that federal, state, county, and city governments, having jurisdiction over a particular location, act in coordination and agreement. This agreement is referred to here as the government’s decision. Any such decision would likely comprise actions by the government and reasonable and easy to follow recommendations to public.
1. Metrics
“If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it” is applicable here. To control COVID-19, we need to measure the percentage of infected, immune, and naïve individuals in each location and age group. The most popular metrics – the number of tested positively and the number of deaths – are not very useful.
The best way to measure the spread of COVID-19 is to perform random testing of the population. 500 random tests in a location with the population of 1-10 million would provide a sufficiently accurate picture, while only using a small fraction of available test kits. Such testing can be performed daily using a small fraction of available test kits.
The local government can accomplish that by offering free COVID-19 tests to randomly chosen drivers on the roads, students on campuses, children in schools, passengers in airports and other public transportation. Like in surveys, the raw results should be normalized to reflect the whole population.
2. Lifting Restrictions: Go-Stop-Go
A good technique for re-opening the country (state, city, or county) is to temporarily lift most restrictions for a three-day-period – from the nearest Monday to Wednesday. People will enjoy a short week, after a long period of forced idleness. More importantly, this would allow the government to closely observe the situation for the rest of the week. The median incubation period of COVID-19 is 5 days, so about half of the symptomatic cases, exposed in the Monday-Wednesday period will appear before the next Monday. The number of cases that would appear later can be calculated. Unless there is an unexpected rise in hospitalizations or new patterns of symptoms, the same restrictions are lifted permanently, per location. The “location” means a county, a city, a metro, or a small New England state. Large states, like California, Washington, and even New York comprise multiple locations with different conditions.
This Go-Stop-Go approach to lifting restrictions is preferable to their gradual relaxation, in which case we would always be a few days behind the actual developments.
3. Differentiation
Obviously, there are differences between locations depending on the infection levels, population density, transportation modes etc. The most heavily infected areas might benefit from continued stay-at-home recommendations.
The COVID-19 death rates sharply vary depending on age. Only a small percentage of deaths occur in people below 50 (see CDC data on COVID-19 statistics page on April 15), Most of those individuals had known pre-existing conditions, mostly hypertension and diabetes. See the New York’s dashboard.
It seems that in most areas, people below 50 and without the described pre-existing conditions, can return to their ordinary lives, except for some high-risk activities.
On the other hand, additional caution and help can be recommended for those who are 65+. They might even need isolation from family members who go to work. Measures to actively protect the elderly and vulnerable might include:
- Delivery of groceries & other necessities to their homes, rather than requiring them to go out in public.
- Encouraging their employers to provide them paid vacations.
- Giving free lodging, if anybody in their household is symptomatic or has tested positive for COVID-19.
The CDC should stop using the phrase ‘community spread’. COVID-19 transmission cannot be traced, which is the definition of community spread. However, COVID-19 is not a plague, as is the implied connotation and sense of panic when using the term “community spread”.
4. Immediate Priorities
In my opinion, when the country goes back to work, the priority should be to ramp up preparedness for any dangerous mutations of CoV2. This would also be a useful step in preparing for future pandemics. For example, we need to quickly increase the surge capacity of the health care system, rather than to try bending the curve to meet its limits. The surge capacity might be free of most regulations and even be of lower grade than the regular capacity.
Another surprisingly ignored measure is to arrange separate hospitals for epidemic victims, while keeping other hospitals safe from the infection. Stephen McIntyre tweeted a week ago:
I saw an interview with an experienced US doctor on epidemics in the Third World. They set up field hospitals for epidemic patients so that ordinary hospitals can continue without getting infected. Domestically, US did exact opposite. Allowed epidemic patients to disrupt [the whole health care system]. Worse than the Third World.
5. Remarks
We need to hear more from real doctors (who see patients), rather from the Swamp dwellers like the AMA, other entities blindly following climate cult, the fake news media, and the UN bodies.
The government has some emergency powers for use in emergencies. However, the current COVID-19 situation falls far from the emergency, possibly except for the New York metro area. Thus, state governments, with possible exception of the New York and New Jersey, don’t have emergency powers. No level of government has the constitutional right to decide what we, the people, do. Whether we go out, stay at home, work or don’t work, these are OUR decisions. They cannot order us to stay home to save statistical lives, even if those statistics are correct – which isn’t usually the case, when a government tries to overstep its authority.
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BREAKING: Thousands Protesting Lockdown at Michigan State Capitol (Part 2)
Yeah, gridlock their shutdown !
Impressive drone footage of the event: “Drone 8 over ‘Operation Gridlock” protest in Lansing”
WOOD TV8 4-15-2020
Cars back as far as the eye could see:
antibody testing
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibody-tests-colorado-stalled-new-york-lab-2020-4
antibody testing
https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/15/stanford-made-covid-19-tests-available-for-health-care-workers-now-its-considering-wider-distribution
“In addition to boosting the number of tests, researchers at Stanford are also trying to improve reliability. While commercial tests are being developed around the world, Dr. Thomas Montine, chair of the pathology department at Stanford, described existing tests in the news release as “uncertain and variable.”
“We thought this was an urgent medical need, and the usual supply chains were unreliable, so we decided to build our own,” Montine said.”
At least for R&D sometimes 1 out of 3 kits is actually doing what it promised as good as it promised. Without any crises and pressure to get a product on the market.
complaining about an empty hospital
“More importantly, this would allow the government to closely observe the situation for the rest of the week. The median incubation period of COVID-19 is 5 days, so about half of the symptomatic cases, exposed in the Monday-Wednesday period will appear before the next Monday.”
That’s most likely not gonna work:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-do-italians-test-positive-after-symptoms-are-long-gone?ref=scroll
You can infect so many people in about 3 days that you have a R0 that is pulverizing all effort made before.
It is certainly possible that virtually all people get virus and virus is with human species forever. Has happened with other coronaviruses that come from bats.
Of course it is possible. Just don’t care about killing 1% of the population in the process because everybody has to die someday. Easy.
An interesting search on this topic will reveal what looks to be a very good way to test a population for pathogens including SARS-CoV-2. It’s may be able to monitor the spread before everyone tests individually. The noticemay be within a day of initial infection since in a large urban area, that’s how long it would take a flush to reach the sewage plant. About 4 or 5 hours ina large city. It could be pinpointed to smaller areas if testing can be done at lift stations or at an intermediate storage containment.
I don’t think it can spread from there but it looks like this testing would be a very early indicator. Some articles have indicated it is possible to calculate the number of infected people using that system.
Google searched using [viruses found in sewage]
Presence of SARS-Coronavirus-2 in sewage
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.29.20045880v1
The kids at CDC evidently haven’t updated their website (6 days ago)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/water.html (under “Can the Covid-19 Spread through a Sewage System”)
In the Netherlands the blood bank Sanquin has tested thousands of samples of donor blood for corona antibodies and came up with a percentage of 3% persons having been infected (and not ill- symptomless,cured or not yet symptomatic- because when ill they would not donate blood). This is not a test for the presence of the virus but of the anti-bodies. Incidence was highest among young people.
https://www.ad.nl/politiek/rivm-mogelijk-mondkapje-voor-sommige-beroepen~a7e4bcea/
What is the false positive rate of the test by itself?
You know it now.
My recommendations for preventing such a tragedy from happening in the future:
1. Set maximum density limits for cities. Strive for low density city centers and push for more suburban development. Urban sprawl is the answer to our fetid, filthy big cities.
2. Work towards limiting our dependence on mass transit. Its a giant infection risk that could be eliminated by more independent forms of travel. Let’s give huge tax breaks to those willing to purchase a personal vehicle after the shut down.
3. Round up homeless populations and intern them in hygienic camps. They will be forcibly bathed each day if they refuse to do so on their own.
4. Keep prisoners locked up indefinitely to contain any diseases they may harbor. They are not likely to ever be productive members of society so no reason to let them loose.
5. Force airlines to remove middle seats from planes
Sure these seem draconian and silly, but are they really any less so than what has imposed on areas not ravaged by the disease? Does everyone need to suffer because our big cities are a perfect means of transmitting disease?
Maybe you’d like to add euthanising Gypsies and Roms and trade unionists to your list. You’re almost there.
Please go on. I am open to suggestions. We need to be thorough if we are to avoid such a plague in the future. Obviously, everything is on the table. No measure is too drastic if we can save just one life. Even we have to sacrifice thousands of lives and livelihoods for that one.
What do they say about good satire?
Now that air travel is down so much, perhaps TSA can take care of #3.
I lived in the Austin area for a couple of years. I hate central planning. To think we can do it better than the progressives who now run the show is the wrong way to go.
People are smartNormal people are smart enough to figure things out. I’ll bet much of the population of NYC would gladly wears masks every day and endure the occasional lockdown when the virus flares up.On the flip side, normal people will think twice about staying in densely-populated areas, areas with high-air pollution or areas where mass transit/public transportation is the only affordable option for working.
In other words, many of these problems will take care of themselves. WFH and remote work are here to stay. People who can work remotely are learning the daily commute is not worth the hassle, that getting to and from work is unneeded stress and the time commuting back and forth can be better spent.
We still have empty buses and trains running to an empty airport. Our progressive leaders are so smart.
I think you should add instituting decimation to any city over 10,000. We must do all we can to prevent anyone from dying of disease, even if it kills us.
” Beate Bahner has won three cases in the Federal Constitutional Court and written five books on German medical law’
https://summit.news/2020/04/15/german-lawyer-who-criticized-lockdown-arrested-taken-to-psych-ward/
It kills people who have insulin resistance; even among the elderly. The others are fine. This is true also among the elderly :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkUdD8odrdc
a study in the J. Clin Microbiol which suggests that recent flu vaccination can give rise to coronavirus antibody testing as positive and suggests `routine vaccination as a potential cause of false-positive antibody test results’.
Same thing happened with the HIV test. Maybe still does happen, dunno.
How about we stop treating the US like a small, homogeneous country and save the lock downs and other draconian measures for the Hotspot, like the NYC region or New Orleans.
Keep the high-risk population sequestered.
“The CDC should stop using the phrase ‘community spread’. COVID-19 transmission cannot be traced, which is the definition of community spread.” Can you say “non sequitur”? I knew you could.
COVID-19 is obviously getting transmitted among people in the US somehow, even if you can’t trace every individual case. To say that this is not community transmission is akin to saying that your house didn’t get robbed because the criminals weren’t captured.
Social Changes with COVID-19 are a prelude to life with less fossil fuels. With COVID-19 we’ve seen extensive self-imposed social adjustments to transportation that are very similar to what will be required to live with less fossil fuels in the future. As we weed ourselves from unrestrained use of oil, we’ll need to lower our demands from the transportation infrastructures and the leisure and entertainment industries to the best of their abilities to conserve oil for where its most needed for society, to make the thousands of products that support lifestyles as well as worldwide sustainable economic development. http://www.capoliticalreview.com/capoliticalnewsandviews/stein-social-changes-with-covid-19-are-a-prelude-to-life-with-less-fossil-fuels/
We are in the midst of another dump of snow and the downhill skiing would have been fantastic. A large part of my coming to Colorado was for the skiing. Do you think we should give up life’s pleasures, such as skiing, when there is no shortage of oil and there is no urgent need to reduce its consumption?
If climate scientists were honest, they would present the climate data truthfully which show that nothing that is happening today is beyond the bounds of natural variation. It was likely warmer a thousand years ago and it was certainly warmer two thousand years ago. In fact, a little man made warming is probably good.
“In Denmark, the lockdown is now regretted: „We should never have pressed the stop button. The Danish health care system had the situation under control. The total lockdown was a step too far,“ argues Professor Jens Otto Lunde Jørgensen of Aarhus University Hospital. Denmark is currently ramping up school operations again.”
“German virologist Hendrik Streeck explains that no „smear infections“ in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressing salons have been detected so far’
Step 1: Grow up and become a rational thinking person.
Step 2: Look at the reality of the virus and realize that the hysteria of it is irrational. While fear is appropriate, over reacting to the fear causes more harm in the long run.
Step 3: Look at every country and align them on an apples to apples comparison. Build a timeline for each nation based on their actions to combat the virus. Look for the trend lines that show affects.
Step 4: Notice how little each action to combat the virus failed to deliver results that differ from other places.
Step 5: Wake up and just simply say no to the shut down and reopen the economy. Right now. Today. Before any more harm is done that cannot be undone.
The reality is that the disease spreads quickly. It has a Infection Fatality Ratio of about 0.03%. It primarily kills those near the average life expectancy for people in their health category. Which means it is not taking very many life years per death it supposedly causes.
Let us look at some fun facts about propaganda.
China shut down their economy for a short period. This set a precedent. They also reopened pretty quickly and continued on with life.
The study that claimed 2.2 million Americans could die came from the same man who claimed Mad Cow Disease would kill hundreds of thousands of people. That was the study governments chose to use to shut down the economies.
The new estimates are about 1/25th that number.
China has a large amount of sway with academic institutions, like the one that made the 2.2 million death claim.
China also has a large amount of sway with the media that was demanding we shut down like China did.
The original claim was that we needed to flatten the curve to save the health care system. The Health care system, even in New York did not collapse. And New York went from zero to 3 times the deaths per million as Spain did in about 2 weeks. The health care system is safe.
Now the claim is we need to stay shut down until we have some impossible things happening. We have to be able to test everyone once a month or twice a month before we can reopen. Why? The Health care system has proven it can handle New York City levels of the flu and survive.
My thought is that China is using its sway with academia and the media to keep us shut down to weaken us. Maybe if we keep following their desires we will be weak enough they can Invade Taiwan for instance. We did shut down an entire Aircraft Carrier Group over the disease, maybe more ships are out of commission where their captains were at least secretive about their situation.
Plenty of Useful idiots, like the above writer and Dread Lord Monckton and others everywhere. Dr Fauci.
I mostly agree, but we really don’t know how effective social distancing was in NY. How much worse would it have been and what’s likely to happen as lockdowns are ended?
Monckton is conservative and risk adverse in this case and doesn’t deserve to be called a useful idiot. Fauci perhaps is not useful at all.
If he is doing the will of the communists, regardless of his intended meaning, he is a useful idiot. That is the official and real meaning of the term. If you have a problem with me calling him it, it means you too are one of their useful idiots. Willing to help them accomplish their goals.
How effective do you think social distancing in a city as packed as New York City could possibly be? Hint, they all still are either getting packages with the virus on them, shopping where the virus spreads, traveling on subway cars or buses where the virus is, living and working in high density high rise buildings where the virus is and transiting the long hallways and same elevators and stairwells as people with the virus are. Studies are hinting at greater than 85% of carriers are asymptomatic and of the other 15% mild symptoms at worst are the bulk.
Neither Monckton nor I are idiots and certainly neither of us are willing to help them (communists) meet their goals. I agree with you that China is however using the crisis to our disadvantage.
I disagreed to a great degree of MoB’s analysis on conoravirus. Your statement that I’m a useful idiot because I disagree with your name calling is illogical and is more about your feelings, which don’t prove anything. You ‘re likely wrong about his motives but I know you are certainly wrong about mine.
You are also incorrect about the lockdown in NYC. You make it sound as though it were business as usual. There was/is in fact a great deal less shopping, traveling, etc.
Virologist Hendrik Streeck –
“There is no significant risk of catching the disease when you go shopping. Severe outbreaks of the infection were always a result of people being closer together over a longer period of time, for example the après- ski parties in Ischgl, Austria.” He could also not find any evidence of ‘living’ viruses on surfaces. “When we took samples from door handles, phones or toilets it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs….”
https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-environment/a/1498185.html
What should our political leaders do the next time an unknown, infectious virus rears its ugly head? Other than what was done with the unknown Wuhan virus? There are only two choices; mitigate the hell out of it, or let it run wild. Which one should we do when we have no idea of the infectious rate or of the number of deaths it could cause?
Some people seem to think there was an alternative to what we just did (mitigate) with the Wuhan virus. They can say this because it is no longer an unknown virus. They could not say this three months ago with any credibility because they knew nothing about this virus.
Thank you, President Trump, for your quick action. Thank God the virus was less deadly than it could have been. That’s what people ought to be saying.
The conspiracy of ignorance masquerades as common sense. Gee Zeus Chrispy, shut-up y’all and read and think.
@Leopold Danze Goldstein:
Excellent! I have had similar thoughts starting from the time draconian unconstitutional edicts were being proclaimed by many State Governors. This is coming from a retired engineer who didn’t stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night nor am I a doctor and I’ve never played one on TV. I’m not a mathematician, either ;o)
You laid your case out well, far better than some similar, less coherent, and more weekly supported arguments I made a couple of weeks ago.
Americans were being shunted into two camps; shut ‘er down or let ‘er rip.
Naturally, the government, being government, always comes up with a one-size fits-all solution, because a considered, nuanced solution that relies on some common sense to treat people differently, but in a way that suits their needs and respects their constitutional rights is just not the way governments roll. If one person is going to be ordered to do something, everybody is going to do that something. The government was in the shut ‘er down camp so everyone gets shut down.
Oh and of course there are arbitrary and capricious exceptions determined the government, e.g. you can’t attend church in your car but you can go to the grocery store and you can’t buy garden seeds. Liquor stores are an essential service (OK. Didn’t mean to start a fight [grin]). Say what?!?
I always thought that there was a third more logical approach and you’ve laid out a good one. Most others have been too busy arguing the two extreme options to consider looking for a third way.
I have heard other 3rd way proposals, but yours is the best I’ve seen so far. I think it would be the sound basis to the start of the journey out of this government-created one-size-fits-all mess.
Never happen? I don’t know. It is the government and one-size does not fit-all. Governments don’t do that very well.
Thanks again for a good article.
A good post.
This is what we need to see from governors and the federal government:
A plan to open business and get people to work.
Is it perfect? No.
Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
I don’t know if the author’s high-end estimate of 500 per million is accurate or not, but that would require about 165,000 random tests across the US. Abbott Labs plans to deliver 1 million tests within the next week, starting today. That would leave 835,000 tests for all other purposes this week. If the low-end estimate of 500 per 10 million is correct, then only 16,500 random tests would be required. Logistically it might take a while to select the participants, but the test would be a small fraction of the number of diagnostic tests currently being completed daily in the US.
Get on with it please.
A recent opinion poll of likely voters in North Carolina had 500 participants with a 4.38% margin of error at 95% CL. About 4.5 million people voted in NC in 2016. That’s about 247 per 10 million.
So it seems like 500 per 10 million would be conservative and likely give a margin of error below 4%. We are wondering is it 5% immunity or 50%.
Get on with it please.
Oops, sorry. Math error. 1,111 per 10 million.
Nevertheless get on with it please.
New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, California and Pennsylvania are the top six leaders for the number of US CoVid-19 cases and deaths.
Not only that, together they have more cases and deaths than the entire other 46 states COMBINED!!!!
Not only that, together they lead the ENTIRE REST OF THE FREAKING WORLD!!!!
The US and global economies are in free fall because of these six idiots!
The masked, stay-at-home, social distancing clown show is because of these six losers.
Besides the obvious, e.g. poor hygiene, too old, too sick, too crammed together, too diabetic, too fat, too smokey just what might be their special talents?
How ‘bout some of y’all useless freshly minted twit and twat journalism majors free lancing for the fake news MSM investigate and inform.
Like ya’ know, actually that’s like actually your like actual job description, ya’ know, like.
This is not a statement of causation, but every governor of those states is a democrat. I will also note that Colorado which has similar demographics but smaller population than Arizona, has twice the cases and deaths compared to Arizona. Colorado also has a democratic governor. There is something to this.
Colorado, however, is often thought of as having the most fit citizens in terms of obesity, diabetes, etc. Compared to Arizona though our climate is much cooler. In fact, this winter is the longest on record. Today there is another foot of global warming on the ground and it’s still falling.
Winter was the same length as every leap year
Sorry, I meant winter weather.
You must have moved here since last winter. We haven’t had any winter weather since February. 1 or 2 April snowstorms doesn’t make up for above avg temps and below average March snowfall. Last year was much longer winter weather (whatever that means) and this year isn’t even in the realm of 10/11.
Sure, there were some warm days this past winter like there always are. However, for the mountains, this would have been an epic ski season if it hadn’t been artificially ended by the governor in early March.
Last year, I skied on July 4 and had A Basin maintained the slopes this year it could likely have happened again in 2020. I suppose it still could. Most resorts opened two weeks early in October and with the snow we’re getting they could have stayed opened well into May.
With the snow we’re getting now, Boulder will get close to or will exceed its seasonal snow record.
The new most snowfall for a season in Boulder was set today, which dated to back to 1908-1909.
https://patch.com/colorado/boulder/boulder-sees-snowiest-winter-record
Willis needs to publish his data that shows that all countries are showing the same metrics with or without lockdowns (re Sweden) except that lockdonws are going to cause possibly billions of death of young middle aged active people worldwide who dont have jobs ect. I am an old person and expect to die but I am not willing to have my children subjected to the stupidity of Fauci and Cuomo New York who know nothing about this virus . This is a normal virus that kills millions of old people every year ITS NORMAL! The USA needs to wake up quickly to this scam. You have two weeks before before you complete destroy your country with millions dying of starvation ect disaster looking to 1930 depression Again ~60,000,000 mainly old people die every year or 170000 EVERY DAY