Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s website
March 29th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Given the global hysteria over the spread COVID-19, you might be excused if you are very surprised to learn that the most recent week of mortality data in the EU shows an actual decline from what is expected for this time of year.
In the coming months there will be an increasing debate over whether the virtual shutdown of our economy was warranted given the threat of the latest form of the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. While there are still large uncertainties about how fast it spreads and how lethal it is (statistically, those are inversely related), I suspect we will ultimately realize that our response might well have done more harm than good to society as a whole.
This is mainly because poverty is the leading cause of premature death in the world, and shutting down the economy leads to premature death for a multitude of reasons related to poverty. In the extreme example, you could save lives in the short run by keeping everyone at home, but in the long run we would all starve to death.
But that is not the main subject of this post.
A couple weeks ago I started expressing the opinion on social media that if our reaction to the spread of COVID-19 turns out to be overdone, it might end up having the unexpected consequence of reducing total virus-related mortality.
Let me explain.
As I am sure you are aware, seasonal flu is a global killer, with 300,000 to 650,000 deaths on average each year, mainly among the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. At this writing, COVID-19 has killed 10% or less of that number. (Yes, I realize that number might have been considerably higher if not for our response).
Here’s the point: It might well be that the increased level of hand-washing, sanitizing, and social distancing we have exercised might save more lives from reducing influenza-A and -B that were lost to COVID-19, and that net virus-related mortality might go down this season.
I personally became more careful about not spreading germs several years ago. No so much for myself (I have a pretty strong immune system) but so I would not carry disease home to my family members. I carry antibacterial wipes in my car and use them religiously. We are hearing more and more now about how such habits can help prolong the lives of those around us who are elderly or have compromised immune systems.
Now, recent results from Europe suggest that the COVID-19 response might be having the unintended benefit of saving total lives. This is all very preliminary, I realize, and that coming weeks might see some change in that picture. But it is worth thinking about.
Early Results from Europe
Every week (on Thursday) the Euro MOMO project (European MOnitoring of excess MOrtality) publishes a report of mortality statistics across the EU, including stratification by age group. The latest report (which I believe includes data through March 24, but I am not sure) shows (green line) no uptick in total mortality from the assumed baseline (red line). In fact, it’s a little below that line (they also account for missing and late reports).
Amazingly, this flu season is seen to be surprisingly mild compared to previous flu seasons in the EU. On the chart I have also indicated the number of reported COVID-19 deaths in the most recent week, around 7,000.
Why do we not see an uptick on the chart? The charts for individual countries do show an up-tick for Italy (for example), but not unlike what was seen in previous flu seasons.
The report itself provides two or three possible explanations, none of which are particularly satisfying. Read it yourself and tell me it doesn’t sound like the people writing the report are also somewhat mystified. They don’t mention what I am discussing here.
So, the chart begs at least two questions:
1) Are the effects of practicing increased hygiene in response to COVID-19 saving more lives that would have been lost to seasonal flu deaths, than are being lost to COVID-19 itself?
2) Why are we not outraged and deathly afraid of the seasonal flu (-A and -B), given the widespread death that routinely occurs from those viruses that come around each season?
You might claim, “It’s because COVID-19 can kill anyone, not just the elderly.” Well, that’s true of the seasonal flu, as well. The case of an apparently healthy 44-year-old Texas man who recently died of COVID-19 probably scares many people, but according to the CDC approximately 5 “healthy” young people a day in the U.S. under the age of 25 die from sudden cardiac arrest. Maybe that Texas man had an underlying health condition that was previously undiagnosed. Unless they do an autopsy, and the family reveals the results, we will never know.
And, you might well think of other reasons why EU deaths have not experienced an uptick yet. Human behavior involves many confounding variables. I’m just mentioning one potential reason I am not seeing discussed.
I am not trying to minimize the deaths due to COVID-19. I’m trying to point out that if we are fearful of death from COVID-19, we should be even more concerned about the seasonal flu (many people are saying this), and that one benefit of the current experience might be that people will be more mindful about avoiding the spread of viruses in the future.
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When this virus came out I wonder if people that first got it were more likely to be people that generally are not careful about washing hands, touching face, or people that are highly social and go to lots of events, go to busy bars etc.
1 . It is still very early in the corona pandemic. Most co7ntries are just starting to see deaths. In anotjer month, I am sure the curve will have risen radically.
2. Draconian measures are in place in these countries, reducing both seas8nal flu and corona spread. Cannot compare to a normal season without any measures in place.
3. Perhaps we SHOULD take seasonal flu more seriously as well in the future. Every year thiusands die, when simple measures like more awareness amd better hand hygiene coild save many of them.
“You might claim, “It’s because COVID-19 can kill anyone, not just the elderly.” ”
As a previous post here on WUWT showed us, it can’t kill anyone, and age has nothing to do with it. 99.2% of Corona deaths have pre-existing major health problems. Almost 50% have 3 pre-existing major health problems. The stories of “Healthy Texas Man dies from Corona” are just playing into the “Anecdotal Fallacy” and are meaningless. And like Charles the author said, he may have had an undiagnosed pre-existing health problem.
The more I dig into the statistics, the more I am convinced that this is a fairly typical flu.
Good and informative article Dr Spencer! Few others noticed however that some recent stats may be still ‘provisional’ meaning they’re not based on real numbers just yet. Also, mortality rate it’s one thing. Another is overflowed hospitals with more serious cases and large part of population self-isolating itself (milder cases), effectively suspending whole swatches of the country from normal functioning for a period of time.
911 was no biggie, what are 2999 deaths?
A similar number die every fortnight in winter of flu.
“Your honour – yes I beat this person to death deliberately.
But this death represents only 23.7 seconds of the death rate from flu during an average winter, how can the prosecution argue that it is a crime?”
Phil Salmon, Exactly. Some people will look for any excuse to rescue their political agenda.
The most recent estimates by Fauci and Birk are that without doing anything, the death toll would be between 1.6 and perhaps 3 million. That is totally unaceptable, given the estimated death toll with the social restrictions of perhaps 60,000 to 150,000. Those who examine the actual, almost correct death rates for this virus of somewhere between .4 and 1 percent sometimes falsely claim that this is not much worse than the worst flu epidemics, which kill about 60,000 and have a death rate roughly the same. The reason for the error is that this virus is much more contagious than the typical flu and therefore a whole lot more people will catch it amd a whole lot more people will die than would have died from a severe flu epidemic, even thought the death rate is the same. Death rates are RATES, they are not actual mortality numbers.
I have spent the last several days pushing this meme on various blogs.
Note that not only the Euro MoMo shows no increased rates. but the Government site for the UK – Public Health England – who turn out weekly mortality figures , have specifically said that ‘there is no significant statistical increase in mortality’. Important to note that one arm of the UK government has said this at a time when other arms are saying “go home and hide”.
Also of interest is the likely predicted mortality rates of the ‘lock-down’. Some people are saying that this will at least prevent car accidents. Note that the typical reasons for death apart from old age and disease are, in order:
1 – Personal Accidents – mostly falls
2 – Suicide
3 – Road Accidents
4 – Poisoning
Items 1 and 2 are likely to be INCREASED by a lockdown in the home.
Maybe not.
People with real problems do not kill themselves as often. In wartime, suicide becomes very rare.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199802053380607
The subject was also picket up on ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-saving-lives
The lockdowners will say: see, lockdowns worked, because ended exponential growth.
The carryoners will say: see, lockdowns were not necessary, because no exponential growth.
In Oz we run a large public hospital system partially funded by Medicare Levy on incomes but you can also take up private health insurance and have the doctors and surgeons of your choice. Our public hospitals are training hospitals and private specialists and surgeons practice there too as well as being involved in training so they are the number one with ER. Now if the Gummint jump the gun and call for a blanket cancellation of elective surgery in preparation for Covid19 you can get a rather perverse outcome-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/private-hospital-company-stands-down-800-staff/ar-BB11PtEz
The golden rule of Gummint should be do no harm but this virus has torn up the rule book somewhat.
If you look at the (American) CDC website for information influenza deaths you find a very wide range given. These numbers are estimates, in contrast to covid-19 deaths which are actual counts.
Most of the influenza deaths did not occur in hospital ICUs. Many probably were not even really influenza deaths but doctors need to put something on death certificates.
Many of those people were at the end of their lives anyway, and the final thing that tripped them over the line was flu.
I would not try to compare based upon CDC numbers.
Yes, you have it right.
Died with the flu is not died of the flu.
And who is doing the estimates?
Some people are bad at estimating, or have a propensity to overestimate.
What is different about this is that 20% of cases need to be hospitalized, at least according to reports from Europe. And 5% get severe viral pneumonia.
Nothing like 20% of flu cases get admitted to a hospital.
“Nothing like 20% of flu cases get admitted to a hospital.”
No because they’re mostly in high care Aged Care which is similar and Covid is doing it’s work there. We just don’t call them hospitals probably because you don’t get better and go home.
Good observation.
Also, what percent of flu cases are reported? My wife, daughter and myself had the flu this winter but no one saw the doctor as we know what to do. Not added to stats. Wife very sick for 10 days, daughter for 5 and me for 2. My wife had the flu shot.
I for one have never alerted anyone or gone to a doctor over a case of the flu.
No one in my family either.
Some people do apparently, but I see no reason to go out when sick, or bother a doctor over something that is mostly untreatable and goes away on it’s own after a while.
Nicholas
This sentence is lacking something important:
This is how it should be:
True.
It is easy to misspeak when so much crap is flying around.
Thank you for pointing that out.
There is only one Cause, and that is the Big Bang. Everything else is caused by that.
Allegedly.
All people die because their heart stops. Nothing else kills people.
Really, stop being in such denial. UK hospitals are (in the major cities) saturated. And its getting worse. Where I live its still on the exponential part of the curve, but I live in an isolated corner and we only have had three deaths and about 1000 tested positive cases.
No one knows the extent of the virus, because, like climate change, there aren’t enough tests being done to see who has it, who has had it, and who has not.
Likewise, if someone contracts it and dies of a cytokine storm or pneumonia, depending on which country you are in you might get a very different death certificate reading.
Did the man die from sepsis, or getting a rusty nail in his foot?
The winter has been mild in Europe. One expects less viral deaths in a mild winter.
At the moment the experts – here and elsewhere – are pi$$ing in the wind, because the data simply does not exist, and neither will it for several months. Governments are having to make up policy on the fly with very little hard data, just as happens in wartime, and as in war, the first casualty is the truth. And the second as any Sandhurst officer will tell you, is the Plan.
All we can do is reduce spread rates by distancing, isolation and good hygiene practice. Myabe we ahve overreacted. Hindsigjt will be a wonderful thing.
Imagine telling the people in Pripyat ‘actually you don’t need to evacuate: all that radiation stuff is BS”. As it turned out 30 years later, it was BS, but it took 30 years for the final data on Chernobyl to come in.
CDC numbers are inflated and bogus. On their test Instructions for Use they state (I added numbers):
https://www.fda.gov/media/85454/download (link begins download of pdf)
Do you see the slight of hand between the 2nd and 3rd sentences? The detected virus may not be the definite cause of illness, but positive tests must be reported to public health authorities, where they are counted as the definite cause of illness.
Hence my contention that for all but persons over the age of 70 AND/OR with COMORBIDITIES, and/or on ACE inhibitors:
Drumrollllllll
COVID-19 is less contagious, less infectious, less severe, more asymptomatic AND LESS DEADLY than the flu.
The DIAMOND PRINCESS showed that even in a highly confined, highly social, highly communal environment only 17% were infected.
Yeah, less deadly: already 63 doctors died in Italy. Does that happen with the flu?
The ones who weren’t elderly and retired probably had health issues. Several of the doctors on the list I saw were in their 90s. Most were in their late 60s -70s.
You can’t argue with these people they would need millions dying. So ignore them and let them whine on and eventually they will get the message no-one cares.
I have only one thing to say to you.
Darwin.
And all the videos from Bergamo Strasbourg and Madrid are certainly fakes, aren’t they?
A significant rise in overall deaths we will see if we will not contain the pandemic.
We are at the very beginning of it.
We just hear the first sounds of the avalanche.
Sensible Sweden-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of-europe-lives-under-lockdown-sweden-keeps-calm-and-carries-on?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0cKzUQL4q1SidV_scyW_IdGlGaHCxXV_ZS2T4KAMGxn-XGgVy0zIoj6ig#Echobox=1585549905
and Belarus
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-belarus-president-refuses-to-cancel-anything-and-says-vodka-and-saunas-will-ward-off-coronavirus-11965396
Try to check Sweden population density when compared with Portugal for instance.
From wikipedia:
Sweden: 23 /Km2
Italy: 201.3 /Km2
Spain: 92/Km2
Portugal: 114.5/km2
UK: 270.7 /km2
Sweden is not comparable in climate, density and people’s culture to other countries. They do respect warnings there!
They also do not have the tourism pressure or the climate and beaches from Spain, Italy or Portugal. So it is not comparable.
Every country needs to adapt to a proper solution considering collective culture.
Rather, Sweden is a far larger country by area, but with substantially FEWER cities and towns, but with those towns each typically larger and more concentrated at harbors up and down the coasts at harbors than their Portuguese counterparts. Portugal has many more small towns and villages scattered more evenly across the country up its many hundreds of separate valleys and inlets.
there are far denser populations with relatively small amounts of deaths.
India for starters where millions live in slums and on the streets.
75 countries have Corona and no deaths..
Princess Diamond cruise ship with large Corona viral load in packed space with air conditioning had ten deaths. All over 70 and already ill.
Spare a thought for the UK back in 2017/18
” The flu vaccine’s failure to protect against some of the key strains of the infection contributed to more than 50,000 “extra” deaths in England and Wales last winter, according to data from the Office of National Statistics”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-vaccine-deaths-nhs-ineffective-crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html
The question I would ask is: are the statistics timely or delayed? In other words, are there later revisions as better data becomes available; revisions which would be reflected in previous years’ numbers, but perhaps not yet in this year’s?
Just followed the link above to the original source, and found the answer to my question there, which is essentially “yes”:
>> Over the past few days, the EuroMOMO hub has received many questions about the weekly all-cause mortality data and the possible contribution of any COVID-19 related mortality. Some wonder why no increased mortality is observed in the reported mortality figures for the COVID-19 affected countries.
>> […] Furthermore, there is always a few weeks of delay in death registration and reporting. Hence, the EuroMOMO mortality figures for the most recent weeks must be interpreted with some caution.
>>Therefore, although increased mortality may not be immediately observable in the EuroMOMO figures, this does not mean that increased mortality does not occur in some areas or in some age groups, including mortality related to COVID-19. <<
That graphic cycle also demonstrates that warm is better than cool for humans 🙂
I’ve found this data source to be absolutely fascinating. It certainly puts things into perspective.
You can see small summer spikes, probably caused by heat waves. You can also see that the summer deaths are tiny compared to the winter deaths. So, yes, absolutely, warm is far, far better than cold for humans.
It does seem blindingly obvious that the modern global warming has been of huge benefit to the wellbeing of mankind and the planet. After all, if there had been no global warming we would still be in the depths of the Little Ice Age. Now that really would be a catastrophe.
Chris
I see the main point of this “shelter in place” orders across North America, and Europe is to slow the virus enough to keep our hospitals and ICUs from getting crushed with far more patients than can be accommodated. Having them die in hallways unattended because there were no more rooms and ventilators for their respiratory distress. This is what happened in Italy 2 weeks ago and now in Spain. Already many discretionary and less time sensitive procedures, both in-patient and out-patient, are being delayed.
This will cause a pent up demand over the summer and fall, and some may die for having things like cardiac bypass procedures delayed. Cancer chemotherapies are likely being delayed as well because of the immunity compromising they produce in the patients would put them at high risk to a SARS-CoV-2 infection. Hysterectomies and ovectomies delayed, etc could end up costing more lives in the long run as well.
Why are we not outraged and deathly afraid of the seasonal flu (-A and -B), given the widespread death that routinely occurs from those viruses that come around each season?
It’s because the flu has been around for a long time. It is generally accepted that it will come along and take people away, despite vaccination programs of varying effectiveness. As a result, there is no political risk. Not so with COVID -19. This new virus comes and the media jumps on it – “what are you doing about this, Mr President, Mr Prime Minister?’ Against a background of dying people and studies from academia predicting far more deaths than from flu, the politcian has little choice but to act, and perhaps overreact. And critcism for overreaction lies well down the road and will probably be made by the same people who urged tough action! And they don’t care about how many deaths result from a wrecked economy. They can blame those on the politian too.
And critcism for overreaction lies well down the road and will probably be made by the same people who urged tough action! And they don’t care about how many deaths result from a wrecked economy. They can blame those on the politian too.
Just as the same people who called Trump racist for instituting a ban on travel from China early on are the ones blaming Trump for not doing anything early on!
A study out of China indicates that for some patients, you may be infectious up to 8 days after symptoms disappear.
https://www.studyfinds.org/coronavirus-persists-in-many-patients-even-after-symptoms-disappear-study-finds/
In Germany , they investigate and collect proof that Ischgl did’nt act correctly because of economic interests while spreading Corona over Europe.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52007104
https://www.tyrol.com/information-coronavirus
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8147199/Austrian-ski-resort-probed-claims-covered-coronavirus-cases.html
Further and last:
https://www.thelocal.at/20200328/skiers-unleash-legal-avalanche-on-austria-over-virus
Although UK Covid-19 mortality (6%) is rising fast, the rate is fractionally down.
Today’s (Monday) update here
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/UK-COVID-19.htm
The problem is that there is a random amount of variation implicit in the way disease spreads so a two or three day hiatus is not a solid indication.
The peak infection is expected in 2-3 weeks in the UK with it is hoped under 5000 dead.
Which doesn’t make it a major medical issue, but that is with the most severe public health guidelines I have ever experienced, and that goes back to epidemics of childhood disease in the pre vaccination era.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out in countries that carry on as normal
500 urns with ashes of relatives are issued daily in Wuhan until April 4.
This is not a proper trial. For that you need to compare the control group of an area where it has arrived with one where it has not. Has north Italy a lower than normal death rate for this time or year and if not then shut down was at the very least desirable if not essential if it is lower in other areas.
Didn’t see this mentioned, so here it is for completeness (Dr. Raoult’s latest study):
Article title: Coronavirus cure: French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19
by TechStartups Team, Posted On March 27, 2020
https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/
Today, Prof. Didier Raoult and his team published results of their new study online. The study, which was supported by the Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire (IHU) Méditerranée Infection, succeeds the previous one which dealt with around twenty patients. Unlike the previous small study trial, the new observation study has a larger sample size of 80 COVID-19 patients. The objective of the study was to find an effective treatment to cure COVID-19 patients and to decrease the virus carriage duration.
In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, the team found a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74-year old patient still in intensive care unit. The team also found that, by administering hydroxychloroquine combined with azithromycin, they were able to observe an improvement in all cases, except in one patient who arrived with an advanced form, who was over the age of 86, and in whom the evolution was irreversible, according to a new paper published today in IHU Méditerranée Infection.
…
March 28 Update: In a Twitter post day, Prof. Raoult said: “Our study concerns 80 patients, without a control group because we offer our protocol to all patients with no contraindication. This is what the Hippocratic Oath that we have taken dictates to us.”
(See also chart in above article)
Original report/study pdf:
Title – “Clinical and microbiological effect of a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in 80 COVID-19 patients with at least a six-day follow up: an observational study”
Running title: “Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin and COVID-19”
Link – https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf
Real-time stats courtesy of : https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/
.
The second wave of the epidemic will break out in the fall as it is now in Australia. Those who survive in health by the summer of 2021 will have to rebuild their economy.
from: ren
re: “The second wave of the epidemic will break out in the fall as it is now in Australia. Those who survive in health by the summer of 2021 will have to rebuild their economy.”
I’m going to hold you to that; got a hat that’s tasty enough to eat?
There is gonna be a lot of hat snacking before long.