Guest opinion by Wim Röst
Introduction
The Dutch government has been in the forefront for ‘Climate Action’. But a remarkable switch in policy has been caused by the economic reality resulting from ‘the virus’.
Postponement of new climate measures
Autumn 2019 the Dutch Parliament asked the Dutch government to take extra climate measures. But in an announcement last Friday the Government stated that no new measures will be taken to diminish CO2 emissions because of the corona virus crisis.
“Many people now have other things to do. So do we.” said minister Wiebes from the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy.
This fundamental switch by the Dutch government is quite logical given the recent developments in the economy caused by the corona virus. A real crises asks all energy and money to be directed to other goals than the virtual goal of ‘trying to avoid a possible danger for the year 2100’. Even the internationally well known ‘Urgenda Court Ruling’ does not have any priority. In the words of the Minister: “The court ruling is not off the table, but there are other priorities”.
Urgenda
According to the Urgenda Court Ruling the Dutch government is obliged to do more to achieve the present emission goals. This year many more measures should be taken to reach those goals. Economic reality however puts the climate goals aside. One of the groups that is putting pressure on governments to do so is Clintel which stands for ‘Climate Intelligence’.
Clintel’s letter to World Leaders
Last week a letter co-signed by Professor Richard Lindzen, by The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley (and many others) asked world leaders to let the actual virus and economic crisis prevail over climate goals. In the words of Prof. Guus Berkhout, president of Clintel:
“Your Excellencies, compared to COVID-19 climate change is a non-problem! It is based on computer models and looks into the far future. In current health emergency, however, your attention to the peoples’ needs is today! Please, don’t continue pushing your zero carbon emission ambition in a time that the world is dealing with a deadly global crisis. Yes, there is an emergency, but it is NOT the climate.”
A translation of the open letter is available in many languages.
Conclusion
The decision of the Dutch government to postpone new climate measures signals a fundamental change in priorities by a country that has been one of the most committed to achieving climate goals.
Economic reality will urge many governments to follow.
With regards to commenting: please adhere to the rules known for this site: quote and react, not personal.
About the author: Wim Röst studied human geography in Utrecht, the Netherlands. The above is his personal view. He is not connected to firms or foundations nor is he funded by government(s).
‘Economic reality will urge many governments to follow.”
Yes. And China will not be among them…because there is no need. It already leads the pack in placing its economy above climate concerns or anything else for that matter.
It’s the end of the world!
It’s the end of the climate scam. Climate change policy of “keep it in the ground now” advocated by the climate alarmists would do far far worse damage to the world than the virus/COVID-19 control lockdowns.
1. These lockdowns can only continue because people have affordable, reliable electricity and natural gas flowing into the their homes, condos, and apartments to keep the lights on, them warm (or AC cooled as the case may be).
2. These lockdowns can only continue because much of the fossil fuel energy industry continues to work providing coal and natural gas to fuel ~70% of the US’s electrical generation.
3. These lockdowns can only continue because coal, nuclear, and natural gas power plant engineers, technicians, and security staff continue to report for work at those nuclear, gas, and coal power plants across the world.
4. These lockdowns can only occur because a million-plus of big rigs and delivery trucks and their drivers still keep delivering foods and produce to grocery stores across the US using mostly diesel, where people can still go and shop and get that green leaf lettuce and vegetables brought in from thousands of miles away.
5. These lockdowns can only continue because we have refineries and engineers and technicians at those plants continuing to produce the liquid fuels necessary to bring all of those long-haul freight and refrigerated produce and foods transportation services to reality to deliver those to our grocery stores.
In summary, these lockdowns to try to slow this virus epidemic to manageable levels can only occur because we have affordable fossil fuels and an energy industry manned by folks doing their jobs.
The things the Green eco-terrorists want to impose on the world are far, far worse than what we are experiencing now.
Joel O’Bryan: “The things the Green eco-terrorists want to impose on the world are far, far worse than what we are experiencing now.”
WR: When you use all financial reserves to create an expensive economy for no use, the economy will not be able to survive a real crisis. That is why ‘A Green Deal’ is that bad. Countries like China that used their brains well (they know that climate does not work as the models suggest that it ‘could’, ‘may’, ‘might’ work ‘if’ and ‘when’), they are developing their economy using cheap and stable fossil fuels and are in the meantime developing new forms of nuclear energy like Thorium. Which is wise.
Joel O’Bryan: “It’s the end of the climate scam.”
I have heard “it’s the end of the climate scam” since November of 2009. Don’t remember if I believed it then, but don’t believe it now. Too much money, prestige, and power at stake.
Even a tourniquet cannot be kept on too long.
6, with flights cancelled more or less worldwide many who work offshore outside their home country are now stuck on the rigs and platforms for the duration of this lockdown.
Please spare a thought for the people keeping your lights on and supplies coming in while being ‘stuck’ in your own home with your own family around you.
yeah I wondered how they would be going, along with our aussie FIFO workers who cant fly out and return unless they work in the same state, and even then? I think theyll be staying in camps for days off if they have enough Dongas to accomodate them.
consolation is wages I guess and a pretty secure place IF no ones got the bug
Let me try to figure this out. The Dutch Government gave up on saving the world from certain doom in 10 or 1|2 years, and instead will try to save some percentage of humans in the next few weeks? Speed right past the “tipping point” but save humans for the big finish? In their view they are going faster and faster down a dead-end street, which is crazy. There, I said it and I feel better.
Do I miss a /sarc in yoour post ?
Jusst curious…..
Ron Long: “The Dutch Government gave up on saving the world from certain doom in 10 or 1|2 years, and instead will try to save some percentage of humans in the next few weeks?”
WR: My vision: The Dutch government just realised (the last one or two weeks) that there is a big ‘virus problem’ that needs to be solved instantly and also realised that the virus problem is causing huge economic problems the burden of which will extend into the future. So this needs a re-evaluation but at the moment there is only time to solve all virus problems. A pragmatic approach.
The good thing is that in the future there will be a more realistic ‘balancing out’ of the necessity ‘to do something about climate’ and to solve the remaining economic and other problems. In fact there has never been a real climate debate, so this is good news.
…and that the climate crisis takes huge sums of money they ain’t got now
I totally agree and it is a problem that is not discussed.
The climate crisis was only possible as our citizens, were in a good place, at a good time in our country’s history when the economy was working, growing.
GDP has shrunk 20%, expenses have grown by 20%, and tax revenue will shrink 20%. Unemployment is predicted to be around 30%. There are estimates that 30% of the small businesses are going to go bankrupt.
There is suddenly less real money, world wide, to spend. We have not figured out how to handle that problem.
The EU countries Spain, Italy, Greece, and France that were in economic crisis, now are almost instantly facing a great depression economic event and bankruptcy if they do not cut expenditures to match their lower GDP.
The Dutch Government, the German Government, and the Finland Governments are all blocking the issuing of EU Covid Bonds.
Same problem in the US.
US financial basket cases. Cities such as New York, Chicago, and so on that were at the limit of their borrowing, before the shutdown, are now facing instant bankruptcy.
We have known for some time that sending money to failing countries and cities does not work.
The US and Germany have announced the largest economic stimulant packages in their histories. This is a broken economy which is different than an economy that has slowed down.
yeah theres going to be a hel of a lot of climate supports handouts removed for the foreseeable future after this settles and the debt loads become fully visible.
nothing spare for unicorn farts at all I hope.
there IS some good from the Virus after all;-))
“In fact there has never been a real climate debate, so this is good news“
No kidding, the science is settled 😉
In fact there has never been a real climate debate, …. this is a good time to start one.
Sorry we’re busy. We now have *real* problems to deal with.
End of debate.
It took a tiny strand of RNA which can not even reproduce itself to point this out to european “leaders”.
I am hoping that all the dollars that were funding the climate change scam ( scam is defined as — the climate has always changed and will continue to change ) are redeployed into border control, and super computer complexes dedicated to vaccines, an understanding of why our ancestors shed blood to establish countries and borders, and away from social or societal engineering.
Let me be the first to add that social distancing is social engineering. Human Beings; Homo Sapiens will need to return to being the social creatures that we are. We need to be closer then six feet to procreate; we need to be closer than six feet to develop the emotional and physiological connection to even begin the act of procreation.
Hmm. Given most folks are self isolating in company, I’m predicting the extra temporary hospitals we are building in the UK will be required as maternity wards come Christmas…
Yes. I have made that connection as well.
“Climate Intelligence”, eh? Now there’s an oxymoron if ever I heard one.
LOL!
president of Clintel ….. president of Clintel ….. hmmm there’s something about the sound of that which makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up. The illuminati are always dropping little hints of what they are doing so they can say we were warned and willing went along with their plans….
That’s what I was thinking. You can’t make this stuff up.
Greg: “president of Clintel ….. president of Clintel”
WR: in the Netherlands “president” is for example used for the head of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. The head of another group of scientists can use this title as well. Clintel is also the organisation behind the letter ‘There is no Climate Emergency’: see their website. Their point of view is unequivocal.
They have decided to destroy the economy one disaster at a time.
Dave O. “They have decided to destroy the economy one disaster at a time.”
WR: Or, they decided to resolve one disaster at a time. Three disasters (virus, economy and climate) is too much to resolve at the same time. Before the new crisis they only saw one problem ‘because everybody said so’: climate. Now there are real problems.
This is the beginning of the end of the climate scam.
That fact has yet to sink in to the Climate Scammers. But it will once the virus restrictions ease and the general public grasps the consequences of what a world without reliable, affordable electricity and empty grocery stores would mean under the climate eco-terrorists plans.
Joel O’Bryan: “This is the beginning of the end of the climate scam”
WR: Yes, I think so. In the near future we will miss the luxury to spend lots of money for useless things. Climate does not work in the way it is ‘believed’ to work.
Besides it will be a shock to realize that Asian countries were able to keep ‘the virus problem’ in proportion. And that we cannot do the same, not in Europe and not in the US. That we were not prepared for this new reality, being fixated on the wrong things. I think 2020 will be an important year that will be changing many things and especially many visions. A lot of reflection is needed.
” a shock to realize that Asian countries were able to keep ‘the virus problem’ in proportion”
Not in North Korea. You just kill anyone who contracts the disease.
WR from your statement I envisioned Jim Carrey in Pet Detective 2 where the natives were shooting tranquilizing darts into him. On the 3rd dart he screams “3 darts is too much” and passes out.
in your scary scenario the World cries out
“Three disasters (virus, economy and climate) is too much“
Derg: “in your scary scenario the World cries out
“Three disasters (virus, economy and climate) is too much“ ”
WR: correct. Therefore they skipped (for now) ‘climate’. And I suppose many governments will do.
Developing countries will ask for now and in the near future for something else than ‘climate advise’ which is something the UN is not yet realizing.
The WHO also needs to be cleaned of any CCP corrupting influences.
The world lost its way with being less skeptical. I hope the world has learned a lesson.
Say what? Going green was supposed to create jobs and save money.
Going green will save the world. If only we had listened to AOC and stopped all flying last year , we would all be sitting back laughing a China and its virus problem.
Now all we have to do is all go vegan and stop drinking soda and we will be spared from COVID-19 which only attacks obese clients of McD.
Pick your own closing tags.
Even a tourniquet cannot be kept on too long.
Even a tourniquet cannot be kept on too long.
Even a tourniquet cannot be kept on too long.
(Rescued from spam bin) SUNMOD
Once again reality wins. The closer countries get to actually doing something about reducing fossil fuel use the more they realize how important energy is to their lives. One can only hope that instead of virtue signaling their support of AGW these countries will eventually take the time to actually do some scientific research instead of letting the UN/IPCC and the media lead them around with a nose ring.
Markl: “Once again reality wins.”
WR: In this case: indeed. There must have been the feeling in government that ‘something is wrong’ with mainstream thoughts about climate. But because ‘everybody says so’ the ‘climate machine’ went on and on and on. This virus and economic crises provides the opportunity AND the necessity to re-evaluate. I suppose that that is what we are going to see in the not too far future. When first problems are resolved and when there is an idea about the economic result of all turmoil.
How does the EU get rid of the unelected and unaccountable kommizars in Brussels who are determined to decarbonise Europe in a literal heart beat?
So far 782 Dutch have succumb to the virus. Are you suggesting the needs of the few outweighs the needs of the many, the country, the world? Backwards thinking!
Ron: “So far 782 Dutch have succumb to the virus. Are you suggesting the needs of the few outweighs the needs of the many, the country, the world?”
WR: until 10 days ago in the Netherlands a total of only 58 people died. The line is rising steep while not even a tenth of a percent of our population is diagnosed with the virus and the hospitals already are full. If the virus spreads to tenths of percents of the population (which it is able to do very well) then we cannot speak anymore about ‘the needs of the few’. Remember also the present case fatality rate of Italy: 97,000 official cases and 11,000 deaths. What if there are millions or tenths of millions of cases? There is no ‘needs of the few’ anywhere to find.
Data for the Netherlands: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/
yeah imagine the power out and only wind or solar trying to run even one cities worth of ventilators 24/7
I hope Dutch have learned to keep sense of proportion in any new craze and have not totally forgotten the tulip lesson.
Vuk: “I hope Dutch have learned to keep sense of proportion”
WR: The problem is ‘advisers’. Advisers use ‘models’ and models never are made to reflect the full reality. Therefore advisers are always wrong but because of all the ‘group talk’ it seems (for the government) that all advisers are always right. Till a real problem emerges. That is what we see happening now.
When people are not prepared they will do too much or not enough.
At least this is a moment that new choices are made and have to be prepared. The moment to think about the right strategy to get the right climate policy.
Hi Wim
No offence intended, Holland is great country, totally opposite to my Monte Negro, in my much younger days I lived for a while in Amsterdam Zuid, I had a bit of surprise when my landlady left Xmas stocking at my door in the early December, later she explained (was it Sinterklaas?) st. Nicolas.
Hi Vuk, I never made it until Montenegro: Mostar and Dubrovnik come closest. I visited the old Yugoslavia in 1974 during a 3 weeks geographical excursion. I also remember well the countryside over most of the country, the southern part I visited must come close to the situation in your home country. At that time still very traditional.
I agree, for many reasons I love the Netherlands too, although the Dutch are (were?) a bit crazy about climate. And indeed it is ‘Sinterklaas’ that we still celebrate at the evening before the 6th of December. Amsterdam Zuid is half an hour from the place where I am living. Nice to know that you have good memories of Holland. (I didn’t think you were too critical about the Netherlands – you know Dutch people like to say everything and never use a sarc tag in Holland because that way of speaking is rather common).
Hi again
You missed the best part of the old YU. When Covid is over then you’ll have an opportunity to see it, till then here is a short preview:
https://youtu.be/x8n9bMtE8Kk
Thanks Vuk, nice to see. Old memories came back, new impressions should be added. Hoping Covid will soon be over.
Maybe imminent doom now has priority over “imminent doom” some time in the future 🙂
The letter is magnificent. Send it to all your Green friends…
So the PC brigade are putting their Ideological bullying aside until they can regroup.
It’s at times like these when money will start to be ploughed into the REAL crises of our world, and postponing action on those that are not. I’m 100% certain that the powers-that-be know this to be true about the climate.
Interesting…..re Dutch parliament, I went to the flower store over a week ago to buy my wife a bouquet…..the owner of the store has been and aquaintane for years said she couldn’t get flowers….she couldn’t get her normal supply from the Netherlands or from anywhere across the Canadian border….so maybe the Dutch parliament is already noticing an economic hit in their major agribusiness…..
Anyway, here in Alberta, flower stores were shut down as “non-essential” this past week…Airlines could not fly flowers airfreight, pretty well sealing bankruptcy for our aquaintance….even though it is easy to maintain “social distancing, surface cleaning, don’t eat without washing the produce” in such a store. Liquor stores and cannabis shops remain open as “critical public services”. I’m pretty sure the airlines would have liked to be able to fly some flower cargo, even though they aren’t critical supplies…more directly, the lack of air flights also affects getting duckbill valves for ventilator masks from MiniValve in the Netherlands, an unintended consequence that might cause some “statistical deaths”.
DMacKenzie: “she couldn’t get her normal supply from the Netherlands”
WR: I am living in the region where a lot of those flowers are produced, where they are traded and from where they are flown all over the world. But everywhere in the world too many people have to stay home and can’t do some ‘fun shopping’. Airplanes are mostly grounded. It is a real disaster for the whole flower and plant producing agro industry: the market plummed totally.
Indeed, big economic problems over here. And everywhere.
Wim,
Bedankt! Thx for this post.
I think that contrary to the Dutch government’s pragmatism and openness about it’s change in priorities, a good number of other governments will use the viral mess to slink out the back door on their climate policies.
As you point out, climate had become mainstream politics, moving on helped by the usual suspects.
The realization of the monumental socio-economic impact of the coronavirus mayhem has provided a probably terminal “c. Interruptus” of that self fulfilling process.
Mvg,
T
True believers, such as Washington state Governor Jay Inslee, will soon return to the mantra of ‘The Existential Threat from Climate Change’ as soon as the real threat from Wuhan virus begins to decline.
Appears that none of the above commenters heard what Nancy and the democrat party was saying: “We need to extent/increase subsidies for wind and solar and reduce airline emissions to STIMULATE the economy”. As long as We the People keep electing these “contribution seeking alarmists” funded by big Hollywood and big renewable we will continue to suffer the economic consequences. Try to imagine President Cuomo with the Senate controlled by Chuck and the House run by Nancy. How’s that for an end of climate fraud?
A crisis like this one is impoverishing a country. That is not a good moment for politicians to tell the people that you want to spend many more trillions to ‘save the country for a moment ‘somewhere in the future’ from a danger that could (!) develop. It will not be easy to ‘sell’ the green story to people that still have to recover from the damage they suffered. No good deal this year, the Green Deal.
I think most of us have.
What WR reminds us of is that in the Netherlands, the government is dealing with a binding judgment by the Dutch Supreme Court legally forcing them to implement far reaching climate policies. The Urgenda verdict was a major victory for the green blob.
It is precisely that judgement the Dutch government in practical terms is now treating like so much hoarded toilet paper. And just as likely will continue to do so for a very long time, arguing that in the face of the absolutely massive financial overhang caused by the coronavirus mayhem, the Netherlands simply can not afford turning what’s left of its economy upside down and inside out to “save the climate”.
I think that any governor who tried to implement anything close to the Green Plan in the US after the dust settles, might find him/herself tarred and feathered and run out of town.
The green blob has a long road back to the fawning front page coverage it’s been enjoying for the past couple of decades.
Tetris: “arguing that (……) the Netherlands simply can not afford turning what’s left of its economy upside down and inside out to “save the climate””
WR: That is exactly what I think that will happen.
Agree with you Dennis,
Pork barrel Pelosi extorted and held America hostage for 7 days so she could lard the Wuhan virus relief bill with unrelated socialist pet projects. She said she “jiu jitsu’d” the bill to advance their socialist agenda and this was also “preparation” for the next Wuhan virus recovery bill coming. Openly naked extortion on display…. and promises of much more to come by.
And still the CO2 levels are behaving in the same way as they have since 1958 when Mouna Loa records began – the warmists are really hoping to see a fall, signature or footprint in the date – But absolutely no change:
https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2
From the Clintel letter: “…It is based on computer models and looks into the far future…”
No, it looks into a fantasy land with no resemblance to the likely future.
Hmmm… My paranoid mind observes a different scenario. Politics to a high extends is nothing but virtue signaling, while at the same time and behind the cloak always keeping an eye on the real deal: power and money. Already before the virus started its conquest, there was growing awareness the pompous climate holiness of my government would run into all kind of practical impossibilities. So the virus gives an easy way out. They look forward to the parliament elections next year and positions were already carefully changing. If anything this “sudden change of mind” tells, it is the absence of real conviction. It never was there. And again, taking the opportunity showing phony virtue, once you know the game.
If the climate nonsense looses traction because of the virus, should we be happy? There is a scary similarity between the climate panic and the virus panic. The main difference in the arguments being: the way shorter time scale of the virus scare, suggesting immediate urgency. We shouldn’t loose sight of the fact that, apart from this different time scale, the general mechanisms and the parties involved are pretty much the same. The “97% climate scientists” are being substituted by the urgent calls from the “100% medical specialists”. Who dares to doubt? I don’t doubt the honesty of medical specialist, but their signals are channeled to us via the media and the governments and therein lies a serious problem. I have big trouble blindingly trusting a government and media that have been manipulating and deceiving us for so long. The whole narrative fits just too perfect with the same agenda like before. The most telling sign for me is, that in the clear absence of enough and trustworthy data at this point, all the usual suspects nevertheless know exactly what is going on.
Yes, I abide by all the rules, of course I do. Safety first. But honestly, I am not sure this is because in my heart I am concinved the draconian measures are necessary for some real extreme danger. I have to admid in part I also go opportunistic along, in a the situation with no real choices toward others and my loved ones.
From Jurgen: “Yes, I abide by all the rules, of course I do. Safety first. But honestly, I am not sure this is because in my heart I am concinved the draconian measures are necessary for some real extreme danger. I have to admid in part I also go opportunistic along, in a the situation with no real choices toward others and my loved ones.”
JEHILL: I would like to add…
It is slow the curve; mitigate the spread; this pause of movement is needed to allow the medical institutes and supplies to build. It is not zero out the virus; that is not possible; contrasted with climate alarmist of zero carbon emission.
All of us, in the next 2-5 years, will get it. All of us NEED to get to begin the herd immunity process.
JEHILL: “All of us NEED to get to begin the herd immunity process.”
WR: I prefer a vaccine. Please soon.
So would I. But beggars cannot be too choosy and the antibodies your body makes will help over a larger swath mutated but strains of the virus and last far longer. And it is far quicker than any produced vaccine.
Let evolutionary biology be evolutionary biology….
It has been doing it a lot longer then we have been on earth. I am going all the back to hominids in my timescale thought process.
I mean go back to the chicken pots, my mother purposely infected also all of us.
This was my opinion right from the start. This virus is going to spread all over anyway. Just like the flu and the cold. The more so as they say it is more contagious than the common flu. I am expecting to have contact with it. Hopefully “asymptomatic”. Maybe that happened already. Do I panic about it? No. That will be counterproductive. Stress and fear lower your condition and resistance. A good condition and frame of mind is a better medicine than a vaccine. Whatever Roche and the like will try to implant in our minds. Also, the numbers I observe behind the smoke of the panic are not exceptional. As for vaccination against this type of virus, I am very skeptical. Viruses like corona have a tendency to mutate on a regular basis I learn. It is part of their arsenal. This is also an argument against “flattening the curve” – to artificially lengthen the viral time. So by the time the vaccine is available, it may very well be outdated.
This contrast between a real and an imaginary problem looks analogous to Stalin’s Russia in 1941. The Soviet Union had endured a half decade of murderous paranoia as sector after sector of society was purged of supposed “enemies of the people” – ending with the army upper ranks, leaving the armed forces severely depleted when they would be needed most – when Na3i Germany attacked. The massive Barbarossa invasion in June 1941 suddenly presented Stalin with something unfamiliar – a crisis that rather than being of his own fabrication, was real. This was deeply bewildering for the dear leader – something that was outside his control and requiring no propaganda choreography to persuade people of its reality. They could see their towns burning with their own eyes.
Likewise the global community was until a month or two ago in the grip of a similar paranoia purge – the death-cult fantasy that the molecule CO2 at the base of the biosphere food chain was somehow evil and toxic to the planet was leading to a series of Stalin-like purges, of fossil fuel based energy and transport that are the basis of an industrial revolution that has tripled life expectancy. Imagined enemy after imagined enemy was subjected by a media-political to a Vishinsky-like show trial. But then the profound shock of a real crisis on the world stage – a virus pandemic, has resulted in a similarly disorienting frame-shift. How can it be that numbers of infections and deaths from the virus don’t need to be adjusted and homogenised? And vanishing companies and GDP likewise? Alarmist scares were never meant to be… real.
Of course the purpose of an alarmist scare is to give industrial capitalism a kicking. And the coronavirus is certainly doing that. But maybe they’re nervous it’s going too far in that respect. Too much of a good thing?
Very good comment. And a good analogy.
Fighting the wrong enemy as Stalin did ruined Russia. Fighting the wrong enemy like Mao did when he was in power resulted in comparable failures. The Green Dream has the same potential to impoverish society without stabilizing climate at all. Climate has never been stable.
The potential of the virus disaster is huge. So far there is no real solution available (at least not yet) and the economic impact already is high. Anyhow in the future there will be no money to spend on expensive phantasies like ‘the climate danger’. Hard proof will be asked.
In the nearby future the leading role of the environmental movement will be questioned. What did the environmentalists really deliver, asking trillions? Why did they point at things that were not a real danger, like plastics that we now need to fight the virus, like a possible extinction that does not happen in this greening world (thanks to CO2) and like ‘climate change’ that so far not has been different from natural changes of climate in the past.
In the future in a world that has experienced a real threat and that is experiencing a serious economic backlash you need more than just suggestions about a possible (it may it might it could be) danger to get money.
This virus is a game changer. A very nasty one, but the virus will mark the end of a period.
Wim
Yes indeed -maybe the ruling elites feel that the world economy is like their own personal economies – super wealth (acquired dubiously) with huge disposable income which needs to be spent to assuage guilt. It’s not. The real economy is mostly hand to mouth.
Gasoline, diesel fuel, Jet A/A1 kerosene, propane, bunker fuel, and natural gas are the fuels that are keeping our critical supplies moving worldwide during this Wuhan viral attack. That’s our universal reality, unlike the chimera of ‘man mad climate change’. Fossil fuels, unequivocally, are essential.
Some folks will learning these lessons, albeit ‘the hard way’. Others will never embrace reality and learn, preferring their dogmatic adherence to repeated cries of “Wolf!” by their self-promoting sheperds. Let’s take this opportunity to press the lesson home to those who are willing to embrace reality now and reset their priorities accordingly.
Jurgen: “all the usual suspects nevertheless know exactly what is going on”
WR: I remember that when I myself (following the ‘virus story’ from the beginning) already was very worried about the way this virus – if not contained – could disrupt whole societies and the whole economy, the European leaders still were fighting who should pay which part of the billions that the UK wouldn’t pay in the following years. Nobody was busy with the possible epidemic that could develop. Nobody.
In ‘Climate’ however the whole story has been developing since the mid-eighties. New structures have been developed along well constructed lines, suggesting ‘Science’ was speaking while in fact it was a non scientific political institute (IPCC) being part of the UN organisation that laid out a specific plan to curtail capitalistic economies because they were ‘devastating the environment’. This virtual ‘climate danger’ fully has been created.
The virus however came spontaneous and nobody in the present governments knew the potential danger: taking by surprise 70% or more of the population in a very short time leaving an unknown number dead or with damaged lungs. That was why country leaders still played the ‘let’s do normal’ game. Until they realized the overwhelming influence the virus would have on the medical system and realizing that not they but whole populations already decided to skip their holidays and cancel all airflights and change behavior. Not the governments grounded most airplanes: the people and their scare did. Health is that important for individuals and for their families that this virus could disrupt whole economies. When the country leaders realized what was happening, no one was prepared. And no one could stop the virus at the level Asian countries could: all were too late.
So why ‘Climate panic’ has been fully organised with a specific goal, this virus panic was not. And for now there is for western countries no good answer on the virus as well: nearly all sectors suffer.
Wim, I hear you, as I do hear others. It is way to early to discuss our different perceptions in depth. That time will come. You and I are tuned in to different signals that are there, both in the present and the past. So I rather wait for the moment. Let us keep watching with an open mind.
Wim, again in answer to you. My mind couldn’t stop thinking about your remarks. So I asked myself how to be more clear and how to communicate it. Your thoughtful response was helpful in this. I formulated some ideas more explicit on Joanna Nova’s site in response to a question. I think her site is a better place for this.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/bill-gates-pandemic-warning-in-2015/#comment-2301056
Jurgen, I have read your remarks and your comment (s) at joannenova.
I agree that media jump on a danger like this. For media it has always been ‘blood sells’ and the more commercially the media are, the more danger they will show. But we must not forget that the non controlled social media do exactly the same but spontaneously.
I have ever commented on Bob Tisdale’s website about the reasons that we are so easily triggered by scaring news:
“The question remains why human beings are reacting that strong on negative news and why they all easily” believe “the negative point of views, even when” facts “would give a different perspective.
The answer is given by Peter H. Diamandis in the book “Abundance – the future is better than you think”. At page 33 he writes “… our early warning system evolved in an era of immediacy, when threats were of the tiger-in-the-bush variety”. During the last hundred thousand or more years, the consequences of “not reacting” were clear: who did not directly react on fear (= trusted too much), did not survive. And his genes were lost for the generations to come. Therefore, we (the descendants of the survivors) are all build to react first (and strongly) on “danger”.
FEAR STOPS THINKING. Therefore, everyone who wants to influence the masses first points at a “danger” or, even worse, “a possible danger that isn’t controllable by people in the street”. And starts to “prove the danger” with talks and / or virtual reality. After feeling some kind of “fear”, people will react by a “stop thinking” and “follow the leader” pattern. That’s what we have seen in the “Global Warming Hoax” as well. ”
Full comment: https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2016/12/20/our-ignorance-is-breathtaking-we-should-be-humble/#comment-35373
I myself don’t like the dramatic tone in many news videos. I only very rarely look at them. But I learned about the facts of the virus from a lot of written information. Still I don’t know some essential facts.
The most important of the missing facts is that we don’t know how many people are a-symptomatic: they don’t show symptoms while they have been infected and are (some period) contagious to other people. Not knowing the TOTAL number of infected people (we only know the number of ‘infected and tested cases’) we cannot calculate the final number of deaths that will remain after a full blown epidemic has been infecting let’s say 70% of the population. Having seen the number of deaths for areas with ‘overwhelmed hospitals’ we only know that that number is very scary: 5- ?? % for known cases (Hubei, Iran, Italy, Spain). But we still don’t know the percentage of deadly cases for all infected people.
The steepness of the lines for cases and deaths is worrying.* As it takes some 8 days or so before a tested case dies, we should look at the corresponding number of cases 8 days before the day the daily deaths are counted. That shows a high percentage but then still we don’t know the corresponding percentage of total infected. In the Netherlands and elsewhere some studies has been started to check antibodies (that develop after having been infected) in certain populations, in the Netherlands researched by the blood bank. I don’t know yet about results.
At least this virus has the potential to disrupt the total society (also economically) when it would spread totally without control. In that case this also would result in a big fearful reaction by the population.
What should have happened was a full containment of China from the very beginning of the epidemic. Looking back we missed that opportunity and in second instance we missed the opportunity to contain Italy directly after we knew about the outbreak. We missed the opportunity to trace all potential cases already returned from Italy and to put them in quarantine. Now symptomatic and asymptomatic cases (before it was clear that they were Corona cases and became isolated) could spread the virus easily and they did. We can see the spread in for example the US as we zoom in on the map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
So that is where we are now. No good, in no way. Time will learn what is best to do. Perhaps new treatments or new preventive measures or a vaccine will give relief. Of course I myself again want to be able to move freely and I would like to have a normal economy like everyone. But the virus is a nasty enemy and it is nearly everywhere around.
We were not prepared for keeping the virus ‘small’. And we are paying a high price for that.
* https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Yes, we don’t have a good baseline yet: the total number of people that have antibodies. I once was a bit into statistics and learned enough to know: if you want to make it into a useful tool, you have to take a deep dive. I am looking now at the numbers like they are coming out of a war zone. The saying goes that the first victim in war is the truth. No doubt there are honest numbers, but can you trust them all? Can you compare them? Are they collected with an uniform procedure? Etc. etc. I expect Willis to be very busy now collecting the numbers and trying to make sense of it. He is very good at spotting the weak points. Maybe we hear from him, but no doubt this is a very difficult and sensitive subject. We have to wait and see.
Willis already found that half of the tested people of the Diamond Princess was symptom free as far as I understand: at the time of testing. Many were tested when they finally could leave the ship. In case the asymptomatics were in their very first days after infection it is ‘normal’ that many people did not yet show symptoms.
10 out of the 700 people of the Diamond Princess that tested positive died: some one and a half percent with still some patients being critically ill. Those rich people will have had the best possible care, far above ‘world average’.
In South Korea testing was intensive: all people in the surroundings of a case were tested. Nevertheless the number of deaths was 162 with still 55 critically ill. With 9,800 cases that will give a fatality rate near 1.7%. Health care in Korea is very good and hospitals were never overwhelmed.
Italy and Spain with respectively 105,000 and 94,000 official cases have respectively 12,500 and 8,200 deaths with still 4,000 and 5,500 patients critically ill. Even when the real number of infected people is two to four times as high as official cases, the total case fatality will end up to be in between the 2.5 and 5%. Over actual official cases the present case fatality rate is already around 10% while many cases are still ‘new’ and did not yet result in many deaths.
China with a mix of ‘overwhelmed Hubei (Wuhan) with 80% of the cases and the ‘controlled Rest of China’ with some 20% of cases ended up with an average case fatality rate of 4.1%, official numbers.
The numbers above at least indicate that this virus is a serious one. The death rate for a ‘normal flu’ is around 0.1%. Given the known numbers and given the low percentage of infected people that is needed to overwhelm hospitals it is quite logical that authorities try to control the spread of the virus till there are solutions.
But at some time the economy and rationality will play a more important role than in first instance. The best for now still is a control like the southeast Asian countries have been showing. But that will require constant large scale testing, tracking of all contacts, quarantaining and if necessary containing whole areas.
During that period (till there are good vaccines, therapies) social distancing in one way or another will remain important. Possibly mouth caps (if available!) will play a more important role. The collective interest will have to prevail over private interest, inclusive the ‘privacy’ of people. This last one is a difficult one for western societies but when the death rates climb to 10,000 or more per day everything will become more flexible. That could be within two weeks.
But predicting the future of this epidemic remains – given all uncertainties and unknowns – very difficult if not impossible. We anyhow already should be preparing the ‘system of control’ in case the explosive growth of this epidemic could be brought to a ‘standstill’. There must be better ways than continuously halting the economy: South Korea, Taiwan and China already showed. At a lower cost.
Main sources for the used data:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The decision of the Dutch government to postpone new climate measures signals a fundamental change in priorities by a country that has been one of the most committed to achieving climate goals.
One epidemic and bit more tangible prospect of death that threatens everyone – how that changes everything! Suddenly all those not-so-important now topics as global warming diminish like late snow in the sunlight on the warn spring day.
greetings from New Zealand……..with a lot a Dutch friends in NZ, sounds like ‘DOUBLE DUTCH!! REGARDS, Trevor Collins.
Climate disruption at it’s best and there’s nothing like a non selective virus to concentrate the minds of our elites on the very real problems at hand. No fun having a private jet or yacht and not being able to fly or sail anywhere at present along with all the deplorables. Chuckle.
It “has snuck through amid the Covid-19 health crisis”
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/fears-for-water-quality-after-nsw-allows-coalmining-extension-under-sydneys-worona-reservoir/ar-BB11VXPS
Not quite as contentious now it seems. Still when it’s really important like the climate crisis/emergency XR and Greenpeace types, you know what you have to do with the civil disobedience-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/six-months-in-jail-dollar11000-fine-for-leaving-home-without-a-reasonable-excuse/ar-BB11VwsF
Yes, the climate ‘crisis’ is based on models that look into the future. So too is the Chinese flu ‘crisis’. Same scam, shorter time frame.
The Dutch government has already approved a package to adhere to the Urgenda court ruling.
The announcement late last week was that no additional measurements wil be taken at this moment.