Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Watts Up With That is about more than just the climate. It’s also about interesting things in the world. So if you’re looking for just climate, this isn’t the post for you. However, it’s an interesting peregrination through the world of the mathematics of illness.
We’ve been hearing a lot about “exponential growth” in relation to the cases, spread, and mortality of the Wuhan Virus. And to be sure, it is indeed a global health crisis, one we need to take very seriously.
The curious part is, “exponential growth” doesn’t actually describe the progress of a given disease. Exponential growth never stops—it just gets larger and larger, going up and up without end. But that’s not what happens with a disease.
For example, here’s what has been happening with the total number of Wuhan Virus cases in South Korea.
Figure 1. South Korean total cases of Wuhan Virus since the beginning of the epidemic. SOURCE
We see the same shape of curve regarding the total number of deaths in China.
Figure 2. Total deaths in China from the Wuhan Virus since the illness took hold. SOURCE
Now, this particular “s-shaped” curve is called a “Gompertz Curve”. It is a curious curve, in that it is not symmetrical. It goes up faster than it levels off. Here’s an example.
Figure 3. A typical Gompertz Curve, which describes the evolution of the number of total cases or the number of total deaths in an epidemic.
So I thought I’d see how well those two graphs in Figures 1 & 2 could be fit by a Gompertz Curve. First, here’s the graph of the South Korean total cases, along with the best-fit Gompertz Curve:
Figure 4. Total Wuhan Virus cases, South Korea, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.
You can see why the Gompertz Curve is used to describe epidemics—it’s a very good fit to real-world epidemiological data. And because any given Gompertz Curve ends up at some maximum value that it doesn’t exceed, it also allows us to estimate the part of the curve that hasn’t happened yet. So far, there have been some 7,362 cases in South Korea. The Gompertz Curve estimates that the final total will be on the order of some 8,100 cases or so.
Now, that’s not a hard number, of course. All kinds of things can happen to bend the curve either up or down. But it’s better than just making a blind guess.
Next, here is the same kind of look, data plus best-fit Gompertz Curve, but at the deaths in China.
Figure 5. Total Wuhan Virus deaths, China, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.
Again, with the same caveats as before, we can take an educated guess at what the total number of deaths is likely to be. By the end, the Gompertz Curve estimates about 3,500 deaths.
Finally, let’s take a look at the deaths in South Korea. It’s still early, deaths are still happening, so this will be more uncertain.
Figure 6. Total Wuhan Virus deaths, South Korea, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.
Although the uncertainty in this one is greater, it looks at present like the final total of deaths in South Korea will be on the order of one hundred, give or take.
Conclusions
On my planet at least, this is very good news. Deaths in China look like they will be on the order of 3,500 lives lost. Cases in South Korea are near to peaking. And although it’s early to do this kind of analysis on the number of deaths in South Korea, to date there have only been 60 deaths, and the best fit Gompertz Curve peaks out at a hundred deaths.
Please be clear, though, that I’m not minimizing the danger. A virus of this nature can do immense harm if we don’t stay ahead of it. What I’m saying is that China and South Korea show that we indeed can stay ahead of it.
So let me suggest that we take all precautions, wash hands, social distancing, canceling large gatherings, testing as and when required, self-quarantine, it’s very important to slow the virus down … and that we also dial way back on the hysteria and the politicization of the issue. I assure you, assigning blame to one political party or the other and buying six cases of toilet paper won’t help end the epidemic. Although I must confess, thanks to the web I finally understand the panic buying of toilet paper. I read that it’s because when one person sneezes, a hundred people soil their underpants … so don’t be one of them.
Here on my hillside, I don’t need social distancing. I’m a hermit anyhow, have been for a while now. I hate going to town, and I love my forest home. The plum trees in our entry were fooled into blossoming by the warm dry February.
But then the plum trees got surprised by the March rains. The ground underneath them looked like a local snowfall, there was not a blossom left on the limbs … we’ll see if we get any plums in the fall.
I spent the day using the weedwhacker to give a haircut to the flowers and greenery growing up through the bricks on the patio I built … perhaps I should have put down geotextile fabric, but I do like the way the plants never stop shouldering their way up through the tiny crevices. I take it as a sign of hope, that life endures no matter the obstacles.
My best to all, wash your hands, stay well in these parlous times.
w.
As Usual: I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words that you are responding to. This avoids endless misunderstandings and disagreements.
Data: All of the data is from the Worldometer site.
For Math Geeks Like Me: The Gompertz Curve is defined as
y(t) = α * exp(-β * exp(-k * t))
where
t = time alpha = upper asymptote beta = growth displacement k = growth rate
On Political Correctness: Yes, I know that the wokerati have taken up the cry that calling it the “Chinese Coronavirus” or the “Wuhan Virus” is RACIST!!!, their go-to accusation to try to discount anyone they don’t like. Consider it my small blow for freedom of speech and not bowing to political pressure. Me, I’m the least PC guy imaginable, and I was brought up in a household where racism was simply not tolerated in any form, so trying to bust me for being RACIST!! just doesn’t work. I know who I am.
And if you think that the people who are claiming that this is RACIST!!! actually believe it and it’s not just sleazy political maneuvering, consider the following two tweets, six weeks apart:
Followed by …
However, if you insist on taking that route, before you bust me for calling it the Wuhan Virus because it originated in Wuhan, please let me know your racism-free politically 100% correct alternative names for each of the following illnesses, all of which are named for their place of origination:
- Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
- Lyme Disease
- Marburg Fever
- West Nile Virus
- Valley Fever
- Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
- Ebola Virus
- German Measles
- Lassa Fever
- Ross River Fever
- La Crosse Encephalitis
- Legionnaire’s Disease
- St. Louis Encephalitis
- Heartland Virus
- Bornholm Disease
- Junin Virus
- Nipah Virus
- Rift Valley Fever
- Zika Virus
- Norovirus
I mean, we don’t want to be RACIST!! regarding the people of St. Louis or the inhabitants of the Rocky Mountains, do we? …
Actually Willis, the official name of the virus is now SARS-COV-2 …. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it
“Actually Willis, the official name of the virus is now SARS-COV-2”
Wuhan virus rolls off the tongue better and is more descriptive. How many people do you hear going around saying “SARS-COV-2? How many people do you hear confusing the Wuhan virus with COVID-19, which is the official name of the disease? A lot of people, including medical people. They get the virus confused with the disease.
Calling it Wuhan virus eliminates all the confusion, and the Chinese leadership and leftwing crazies in the U.S. don’t like the name, so that is even more of a reason for using it. Rub it in their faces, so to speak. Rub the truth in their faces. Lefties don’t like the truth.
Why not call it “Trump Virus?” He’s done more to spread it than any other single person:
– Delayed testing
– denied/minimised dangers
– cut funding
– misinformed/lied to, the public
Yeah let’s call it by a name that allows people to see who the real villain is? What’s that? You don’t agree. Maybe now you see why giving it a name that offends people is not a good idea at this time.
Simon March 16, 2020 at 11:13 am
Sorry, not true. The US only has 67 deaths to date, less than many countries, in part because the President closed the borders early.
As to “giving it a name that offends people”, are the people living in the Rocky Mountains offended by “Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever”? I can’t say how tired I am about people being “offended” by something that is true.
w.
“I can’t say how tired I am about people being “offended” by something that is true.”
So you are all good with calling it “Trump virus” then, because all these things are true:
He….
– Delayed testing
– denied/minimised dangers
– cut funding
– misinformed/lied to, the public
Personally, I think it best avoid needlessly blaming any group. I think we should call it what the world heath body has.
I see Trump is taking it very seriously now and so we all should be.
It would seem to me that this curve applies to a restricted or isolated population, and every neighborhood, city, region, state, and country will have its own curve. So at this point, we are seeing the curves of just the infected parts of China, Italy, Spain, etc.
They may ramp up and flatten, but as other regions become infected, will ramp up higher and flatten again. And that will continue until all areas have been exposed.
What appears in my mind, is that not enough people were buying the Climate Change Chicken Little story–so we have the ‘Well, would you believe THIS?’ Maxwell Smart voice emanating from all the media and politicians. Some quotes from CBC–
‘Number of cases in Canada approaches 200.’
‘About half of the world’s 138,000 people infected have already recovered. ‘
’79 in Ontario, including five people who have recovered.
64 in B.C., including one death and four people who have recovered.
29 in Alberta.
17 in Quebec.
Four in Manitoba.
Two in Saskatchewan.
One in New Brunswick.
Two cases have been confirmed among Grand Princess cruise passengers quarantined at CFB Trenton.’
This is insane! The 1918 ‘Spanish Flu’ infected 27% of the world’s population–that would be some 2 billion people today. We’re emptying supermarket toilet-paper-shelves world-wide for 138,000??–and crashing stock-markets?? There are more rolls of toilet paper being hoarded today than people would have been killed by an uncontained Spanish flu.
Does nobody look at numbers anymore and say ‘Hey—wait a minute…’. (I know, stupid question after watching Brian Williams and Mara Gay completely accept and propagate numbers out by a factor of a million.)
‘During the first nine months of 2018, 3,286 Canadians lost their lives to apparent opioid-related overdoses.’
‘In 2018, the number of motor vehicle fatalities was 1,922; up 3.6% from 2017 (1,856).’
‘In 2017, there were around 20 deaths from influenza and pneumonia per 100,000 population, a slight increase from previous years. ‘
There are 37.643 million people in Canada; that means 7,529 died from ‘normal’ flu. Compared to ONE (I think there are now 2) who have died from this supposed new virus. Singapore research indicates it actually may have been around the world for a couple of years, and just not identified till now–meaning it may be nothing new, and everything that is happening now happened last year too, but was bunched in with the ‘normal’ flu deaths. Maybe just one more reason that the pharmaceutical-company-pushed flu vaccine wasn’t effective yet again.
There’s a scam going on; we better watch it, we’re about to get screwed and we’ll come out of this with somehow a lot less freedom than we had last year. Everyone will be staggering around with stunned looks on their faces wondering ‘What the hell just happened here??’
We’re watching a full-on batshit-crazy Greta-Thunberg-Chicken-Little stampede to the cave, taking the advice of a hungry Fox for ‘salvation’, listening to Brian Williams/Mara Gay.
Bats the elephant in the room! They’ll bring humanity to its knees. There’s no money in exterminating bats. The pandemic industry is just getting off the ground.
Wind turbines take out quite a few, perhaps even the slow, sick ones.
Willis, nice article, as usual. But I think you are overworking the, “it’s not exponential,” argument. Of course exponential growth can’t continue forever because there are not an infinite number of people involved with continued mixing of the population. It is the same with many physical and chemical processes. What happens near the beginning of a process when there is ample reactant available is completely different from what happens later in a process when there is much less material left to react. But that doesn’t stop us from, correctly, asserting that one particular process or another is exponential at outset and for some time into the process. Go back and look at your Gompertz curve in R or whatever your favorite fool is today and you will see you can easily describe the early part of the curve with an exponential expression. Of course stating the whole mathematical description of this or any other pandemic or epidemic, or any other real physical process for that matter, is exponential is not the whole story.
As another example, I haven’t looked at the numbers lately, but at least until relatively recently human population growth has been well described as exponential. Of course that will see limits and start to slow down, but as long as that growth is still in the phase that is well described as exponential it isn’t proper to describe it as anything other than exponential growth.
This disease is rapidly running out of time. No virus has ever peaked in April or May. For example, this is the CDC chart for when the flu virus peaks.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm
The warmer weather is going to suppress the virus. Between that proven fact and the aggressive (in my opinion, overly aggressive) measures being taken, it will peak soon. If 5000 people die from this in the United States, I will be shocked.
https://regenexx.com/blog/coronavirus-myths-debunked/
Hopefully, that is the case. The doc in the video above said that Swine flu showed no seasonal variability on its second round. It did die out during summer in its first round.
But people HAVE TO die. All the time.
We wouldn’t want people to be more and more crippled by old age and degenerative disease. Seeing a relative losing his brain is horrible.
People are talking about death like they are talking about email accounts not being hacked, ever. We don’t want emails being hacked (well except Podesta’s and the DNC, of course). Not being hacked is a proper goal. Not dying is not.
I’ve read extensively over the last 7 decades on the 1918 flu and the various respiratory epidemics/pandemics over the years. All have somewhat similar actions due to mutations in that they reach a point where they no longer are capable of infecting humans. Many, if not most, have multiple “waves” as the best evidence indicates the first 1918 flu was mild but also swept the world whereas the second wave triggered rapid deaths in usually unaffected groups. But, after 102 years of research, CDC notes that there is still no consensus as to the mechanism which made that one, single, strain so lethal to those so quickly.
Willis may have pointed out one of the great flaws of Darwin’s original work – the rapid changes. There is likely a lurking Law of Mutations stalking evolution which runs 180 degrees counter to some of Darwin’s cherished beliefs. I.E., life is much more complex than simple “over billions of years”.
And some points:
1. Search PubMed (the NIH repository of all medical articles, trials, studies world wide) and you’ll find only one blind randomized clinical trial (the medical gold standard for treatment facts) regarding avoiding respiratory virus symptoms through hand washing, hand sanitizers, combinations compared to the control group (do nothing). They reported no statistical difference between any of the groups meaning wash your hands, wear those masks, do both and even lather in sanitizer but it will be ineffective regarding viruses.
However, washing is very good to clean off the e.coli especially since no one seems to have toilet paper.
2. No one has done a blind randomized clinical trial of how many exposures one needs before infection from these diseases. Likely will never happen. There are, however, a few PubMed reported epidemalogical studies (for whatever they’re worth) on Emergency Room staff (nurses, doctors, etc.) which indicate their (the staff) infection rate is “very low” although they directly contact those tested with the active, contagious respiratory viruses. Some people obviously are infected from only one exposure. Again, no one knows. To complicate matters, there are some people who simply never are infected regardless of exposure.
3. Apply math (any model you wish) to the modern, daily, non-stop airline schedules from China to attempt to get an understanding of how things spread (ref. the pop book “The Hot Zone”. Wuhan had daily jumbo jet direct non-stop flights to the international hubs of San Francisco, New York City, London, Paris, Rome, Moscow, Dubai, Singapore, Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong. Then add flights to regional airports and their connections to hubs. Then add from 2 to four (even six) months before these flights were shut down.
4. There is no reliable, maybe not feasible, testing on travelers for new “emerging” strains…and there are thousands of strains. Just about every government, city, hamlet on the planet tried quarantines during the 1918 flu but it just (mysteriously or, perhaps, from a law of mutation) evolved out to the human infection zone. Recall, every hamlet of any size in the US had things like telegraphs. They tried. It simply didn’t work. Some conjecture is that it “slows them down” but even that makes little sense unless one can prove how exposures really work. Simply put, by sometime in January, in the West and the international hubs, millions of people had been exposed.
5. These viruses simply cannot be stopped by quarantines in the modern world; nor were they effective previously. Whether quarantines even “slow down” the spread is conjecture. For quarantines to be truly effective in humans under , we need travelers crossing international borders to be treated the same as we deal with Fido (dogs, etc.) crossing borders: complete isolation for up to six months then tested before release. Even with these draconian measures, there are cases where the procedure failed due to humans incompetence or smuggling.
6. One conjectures most people, even the semi-hermit, has been exposed. A large percentage likely has already been infected but had few symptoms or Meaning you will, likely have, been exposed. We may even be in the second wave and/or even third wave since no one really knows (yet). Testing for anyone not showing active symptoms.
7. My Boomer generation will create a tsunami of elders. Given the epidemics of obesity, diabetes, Alzheimers, cardiovascular disease and metabolically disorders, we will be the sickest group to ever enter the elder years. Italy, for example has the largest percent elderly in their population demographics of any nation on the planet. It should be no surprise that they’re leading the West in elder deaths from this virus.
8. Even vaccines which almost always arrive after the viruses mutate are far from 100%. Your best strategy for these respiratory virus to avoid a premature death is to change your lifestyle to boost your immune system. That means, for most Americans, to eat a non-inflammatory diet (Med, Adkins, low-carb), moderate exercise, de-stress and sleep well. For the advanced, invoke authophagy by periodic fasting so that the cells you have that are damaged and worn out will be re-cycled.
Finally, expect the Left to continue “grooming” populations so you’ll not only follow Government directives but believe they actually work.
Your last point, number 8, is probably the most important.
A most refreshing grip on reality.
Generates the thought–note how acid rain, CO2, dust from dust storms, volcanic ash….all get distributed around the globe in a short period of time. But a virus is going to travel only on humans??
Viruses are very delicate packages if genetic information, easily killed.
They rely on being reproduced in vast profusion and continuous host to host transfer, at least this kind of virus does.
They do not persists in a viable state outside of the hosts and cells they proliferate in.
In particular, UV light kills them very quickly.
Viruses that cause infectious diseases, travelling around the world in dust clouds, is not a thing.
As for the range of possible hosts, there seem to be a few for which humans are the only host, but many others infect other species…and so no, they do not only travel around in humans.
But there needs to be some means by which a transfer from one species to another takes place.
Bird flu has one strain (H5N1) which kills 60% of people it infects, but so far, human to human transmission has not occurred except for a few isolated possible instances of that. It also rarely spreads from birds to humans. It can kill entire flocks of birds in under 30 hours.
It is rare fro it to spread to humans, but the shear number of people and birds in the world means that even the rarest of events happen with regularity.
Between H5N1 being first identified in 1997, it has killed over 350 people in the world in sporadic cases of zoonotic transmission.
If it ever acquires the ability to spread between people, which could easily happen via genetic reassortment in an individual who just happens to get a case of human spread flu and Avian H5N1 influenza simultaneously, and if furthermore the infection was overlooked or swept under the rug in the initial stages of the outbreak, we could have something truly apocalyptic occur.
60% death rate.
Imagine that travelling around the world. And that one does not only kill old and sick people.
This should be a wake up call for the entire human race.
The people that respond to emerging infectious diseases have warned of the possibility of a global pandemic of something with a high death rate in the double digits for decades.
This one is not it.
But it is coming, and one way to look at this one is to take it as a warning of what some seem to think is an overblown concern.
IMO, a disease which kills a substantial proportion of the humans on the planet in a short time is not a question of if, only when and how bad.
We have been very lucky.
People respond very badly to events like this.
Some drastically overreact.
Some think that any level of concern is unwarranted.
A very small percentage seems cable of absorbing information quickly while also doing a good job of filtering out bad information.
Much of the problem is perceptions do not align with reality, such as when people start out not caring at all then become obsessed all of a sudden.
Other aspects involved how people react and behave.
Some do so very badly.
Anyone who reacts by such antisocial behaviors as attempting to profiteer should be dealt with harshly
There should be automatic steps in place to keep anyone from hoarding vital goods that everyone needs to have.
What always has been and would have remained adequate supplies evolves into a situation where a few have rooms full of stuff like T.P. and hand cleaner, and others are unable to buy what is required for immediate needs.
There is no reason to think anyone should lay in a year’s supply of toilet paper, never mind several times that amount
Hoarders should be punished, fined, and their hoarded supplies confiscated…but it would be better for suppliers to prevent it from occurring to begin with.
Price gougers should be summarily imprisoned like looters in a hurricane. Tried and jailed with harsh sentences.
Since viruses are quickly susceptible to UV light, should we be installing UV light “hand baths” and illuminating entrances everywhere with it instead of depending upon pump bottles of hand sanitizer?
Hand sanitizer is not meant to protect anyone from a virus pandemic.
Get a bottle of povidone iodine, or a bottle of Hibiclens.
Follow the directions.
For povidone, you can dilute it ten to one, put it in a squeeze bottle, and rinse your hands with it before going out. There will be enough iodine adhering to your skin to kill any virus, or bacteria, or anything else, for a period of time that may be hours depending on conditions.
Use it again after you get home. Maybe smear some around your nostrils, or soak some cotton in it and place in nostrils. No virus will be getting into you through your nose with that there.
Povidone iodine kills everything, completely and quickly, and has significant residual action.
Surgeons and others in an operating theatre do not use hand sanitizer to scrub for surgery.
They do use Hibiclen and povidone iodine though. And it may be few enough people know enough that you may be able to go buy some.
If bleach is sold out, go to a pool supply store and buy some calcium hypochlorite.
50 pounds cost a hundred or a hundred and fifty bucks, and is enough to keep a pool sanitized for over a year. (It is used for shock, not regular chlorination, since it is not stabilized, but if you are a handy chemist you can use it, but trichlo or dichlor is easier and maybe cheaper…but for burning off organics, calcium hypochlorite is the stuff.)
One pound will treat 10,000 gallons of drinking water. It is much better than bleach for some purposes, like hand washing, because bleach has surfactants that make it adhere to hands and hard to rinse off if it gets on skin.
I really do not know what level of UV light will kill a virus, just that the Sun has more than enough.
But something equivalent to the Sun might be dangerous for most people to have in their house. Blindness and all. Burns, you know…that UV is ionizing radiations
Death rate depends on the angle of rising curve of the amount infected with the virus. So, from human awareness and the ease from human-to-human transmission.
Very high humidity in France and the UK will cause a rapid increase in infection.
I keep hearing that if anything, high humidity reduces transmission/infection. In any case, a rapid increase in infection at this point is nearly certain.
Indeed it is dry air which is the problem ( read over heated living spaces ).
People mistakenly think air is “dry ” in summer.
The air itself is not contagious. You must have contact with the liquid excreted by the infected person.
Something akin to Ostwald ripening causes aerosols and mists to fall out in high humidity. In the case of most viruses ,therefore, high humidity reduces their transmission. As you point out, in the case of the Wuhan virus, it is droplets that transmit the virus, either through the air or subsequent surface contact.
It is known that our mucous membranes are more effective against pathogens in high humidity. So, this is probably still an open question.
Mortality depends on the efficiency of the healthcare system. Therefore, it is crucial to flatten the infection curve and extend it over time.
The fit to an S curve only works at the beginning of an epidemic. Eventually you end up with some sort of skewed bell-shaped curve, usually with a steeper beginning and a longer trailing edge.
It is the shape of the entire curve that is important. If the disease has a high R-Naught and spreads too rapidly, the steep front end quickly exceeds the ability of a medical infrastructure to respond – this is what happened around Wuhan. If you can slow the front rise you have a chance to keep the peak under the capacity to care for – extremely important in reducing mortality. This also allows more time to try to respond to the disease with vaccines and counter measures before most of the potential infections occur – although I think a tested generally available vaccine is another year out.
A steep front end indicate one or more factors: 1) The disease is likely highly contagious and 2) The disease is (semi)-novel to the population being infected. The Corona (SARS-CoV-2) virus is both of these. Other than that, we really do not know how many people are threatened by it, how many might have some form of useful antibodies to it, and how many are very susceptible to it’s disease. It is extremely likely our current statistics are very wrong – it is likely there are far more people infected or already over the disease then we have accounted for – otherwise the flattening of the curve makes no real sense. Medical people like to think it’s all the actions they took, but that just flattens the curve, it likely does not greatly reduce those that will eventually come down with the disease (so the tail lengthens – they buy us time).
Once the population reaches the point where some 70% to 80% are no longer susceptible to the disease, it will begin fading out unable to efficiently spread. Also, there is a good chance that warm weather will reduce its spread. It pretty much sounds like I am describing a FLU epidemic, and I am. I see a lot of correlation between the two types of viruses.
All the panic around this disease is just silly – People need to calm down and realize the world has not changed. All the toilet paper in the world isn’t going to make them more secure.
Thanks for the parlous perigrination!
Ah, the joys of the English language, where we have words for anything. And if we don’t have a word for something, we find a foreigner in some dark alleyway and we mug them and steal their word for it …
Regards,
w.
With all these precautions people and government is taking there will be big drop in number of flu cases and colds as well.
Why doesn’t the government suggest businesses and homes keep temperatures at 80 degrees inside with higher humidity ? From what I understand this makes it harder for viruses to survive.
It’s good to have a personal sauna.
Relative humidity is certainly a factor. It maybe that statistically is being confused with temperature.
In winter developed countries over heat their homes. This means the normally low absolute humidity outside become extremely low relative humidity in the over heated living area.
Membranes are gagging for humidity since the air is sucking all it can get from them. The slightest droplet of ( possibly infected ) aerosol gets sucked into membranes very effectively.
My living space is rarely more that a couple of degrees above ambient in winter. Personal anecdote: I don’t get ill.
You aren’t married to my wife.
Willis, Great article, thanks…”but” a couple comments:
Re: The plum trees in our entry were fooled into blossoming by the warm dry February.
Are your plum trees indigenous? If not I frequently point out to people panicked by Climate Change that the trees and plants they note as blooming “too early” are not not indigenous and ask them to instead (1) figure out what plants in their area are indigenous and, (2) if they can find any, watch how they behave over the years and note that the real locals are rarely, if ever, fooled.
Re: Me, I’m the least PC guy imaginable
Me more, but all people everywhere are racists (to wit, races) and that is you, me, and everybody and that is OK since I can tell you from exp that violent racism is very, very rare and usually exists in very specific locations (and thus avoidable). I’ve come to realize that the ultimate racists (who own/control the MSM, etc.) have programmed everyone to publicly proclaim their faith in the MSM “we’re not racist” dogma that the MSM puppet masters do not believe or practice…they divide and and conquer…they promote fear and ignorance…and these are just the “racists” we don’t want to be. Propaganda is an effective mind control tool that must be resisted by any means possilbe. Being non-PC I freely tell anyone who cares to listen that I am a racist…like my significant other…she’s racist too but it just so happens most of her genes originated in Africa while most of mine originated in Europe. But we still call spades spades and Covid 19 the WuFlu.
meiggs
I would like to believe that I’m not a racist, meaning someone who has an irrational dislike or hatred of others because of their country of origin or the color of their skin.
However, I will cop to being a culturist. I believe some cultures are better adapted to our modern world with high populations and high technology. They provide their members with higher standards of living and more personal freedom. Some cultures treat their members more equitably and empathically. They don’t oppress others, nor do they impose on their members culturally anachronistic rituals such as genital mutilations. They provide opportunities for social and economic improvement based on talent and personal effort. Those are my biases and I’m not about to apologize for them, no matter what the mainstream media says about me.
Posted this before but here is an update. Because of the nature of the enveloped Wuhan corona virus, social distancing (the cough microdroplets do not go far and settle in minutes) frequent hand washing (the microdroplets descend to surfaces where the Wuhan virus has now been shown experimentally to remain viable on cardboard for one day and on plastic and stainless steel for up to three days depending on temperature and humidity), and finally not touching mouth, nose, or eyes works. For these same reasons, quarantine works to reduce R0 to near zero. And that affects the shape of the Gompertz curve.
The big remaining question is CFR, mortality. Fauci guesses 1%, WHO guesses 3.4%. The Diamond Princess ‘experiment’ offers a way to correct the denominator in the outcomes ratio fatalities/recovered for undetected or mild cases. There were 705 total confirmed by testing infections out of about 3700 total, 392 symptomatic and 313 asymptomatic (fever <100F). Now this is not exactly right because the cruise passengers skew old who are more susceptible. But it is good enough first order approximation. Divide the denominator by 0.556. So, using that method and starting with Thursday a week ago, here is daily mortality based on the JHU website: 3.4 (same as WHO, maybe a coincidence and maybe not), 3.5, 3.5, 3.6, 3.6, 3.7, 3.7, 3.8, 3.8, 4.1, 4.3. The impact of Italy with its elderly demographic and overwhelmed hospital system is evident. A cause for very real concern and certainly justification for all the measures being taken in the US.
I suspect the Diamond Princess ‘experiment’ is pessimistic not only because of age. People were wandering around on deck chatting about how bad it was. 50% of the those were down wind from potential carriers.
Plus half the crew had it and they were preparing meals !
The number of deaths/recovered for the cruise ship is 2.2% using data reported by Johns Hopkins. This should be viewed positively since we know the demographic skew is toward older passengers. Apparently, not a single passenger under the age of 70 has occurred.
Rud:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/10/wuhan-coronavirus-a-wuwt-scientific-commentary/
You spoke too soon.
“Conclusions
Should the world be concerned? Perhaps.
Will there be a terrible Wuhan pandemic? Probably not.
Again, the analogy to climate change alarm is striking. Alarm based on lack of underlying scientific knowledge plus unfounded worst case projections.
Proven human to human transmissibility and the likely (since proven) ineffectiveness of surgical masks were real early concerns. But the Wuhan virus will probably not become pandemic, or even endemic.”
In an uncontrolled epidemic the population is finite and the curve must flatten when the virus runs out of victims. This is not what is happening in korea. They are using good policies to flatten the curve far before the population is saturated. Unless they eradicate the virus somehow victims and deaths will increase until there is a vaccine. A better analogue for the US is Italy 3 weeks ago.
Unless the vaccine itself spreads the disease…
Moisture increases the survivability of the virus. Higher temperatures do not matter. Rather, the weakening of the body after a long winter.
That would be unusual but you’re the second person on this thread that said that. In other corona viruses, flu and common cold, humidity lowers virus survival.
The air itself is not contagious. You must have contact with the liquid excreted by the infected person.
True for Ebola, not for Wuhan. See my comment below.
You are wrong ren.
Different viruses react differently to various temperatures and humidity level.
What you are saying here is not accurate.
My conclusion is very clear: if China, with a population well over 10% of the total earth population, is going to end up with several thousand deaths, then no way on earth are talk of several million dead worldwide even remotely accurate.
It really is time that the bullshitters in the Establishment were challenged with this data.
A large number of media sackings will be required, and several doctors might need to consider whether they have breached the Hippocratic oath making pronouncements which will have been so ridiculously inaccurate as to suggest that they simply do not merit senior positions of influence.
From this data, you might consider it surprising if many more than 100,000 deaths globally will occur. Call it 500,000 to be very cautious. But unless the thing mutates, evolves and comes back again stronger, reaching even 1 million deaths globally is going to be one heck of a stretch.
A very far cry from the never-ending hooey that the UK media are putting out.
Heard a radio talk show guest say “coronial virus” several times.
Willis, I find that though you state the number of deaths “associated with” this virus, you don’t specify the ” cause” of these deaths. The assumption they are the direct cause by the virus as a pathogen. Is this the case?
Roger, not Willis but can give you a precise answer. The cause of death in CoViD-19 disease caused by Sars-Cov-2 virus aka Wuhan virus is viral lower respiratory pneumonia. This can be X-Ray diagnosed (lower lung ‘ground glass’ image). It can be proven viral when refractory to antibiotics. See the NEJM case report on the Washington State patient and remdesivir that I linked to in a previous post for further medical details.
Could you please post the link here?
So what are the error ranges on the best fit curves?
There is an interesting side question. Many of our killer viruses have been sourced to bats, yet bats are not bothered by them. (White-nose syndrome is killing bats, but it is a fungus). Something about interferon.
Google “bat virus”. See articles there, for example Science News, Science Alert, Scientific American, etc.
The SciAm one says “The mysterious patient samples arrived at Wuhan Institute of Virology at 7 P.M. on December 30, 2019. Moments later, Shi Zhengli’s cell phone rang.” Remember that name: Shi.
I knew a Mr. Shi in Wuhan, not the same guy, and he didn’t like foreigners like me, in particular. I didn’t like him either. I guess I don’t wish him ill will, but the thought crossed my mind.
Toto maybe the bats are the cariers, we are the target. Sort of like ticks and tick bite fever using cattle to infect humans.
Virus particles are not very smart, having no brain and all, so the short answer is no.
But “they” are very clever at infecting something living and cloning themselves. The ‘they’ is in quotes because they themselves are not smart or clever, it is the “thing” that built them.
That ‘thing’ is of course not something physical either. It goes by various names, God, Allah, Evolution … but that is another topic.
Having said all that, there is nothing wrong with what you said, as long as you do not mean it too literally. To us, “they” are out to get us. Bats, ticks, mosquitos, vampires, people with the virus. So we need to defend ourselves, we need to protect ourselves.
great article Willis – I hope you update it or write new ones when significant data emerge
i’m as racist as any Asian/American indian – with some Chinese attempting to blame the US as the source of the coronavirus – I think it is practical for those who think this is bunk to actively use the nickname for the Covid-19 – “Wuhan Virus” – just to tell those Chinese we know better
Total active cases in China have been falling since Feb 18 and are projecting toward zero within 2 weeks.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
I’m sorry but it doesn’t go down to zero. It is impossible. The virus will not disappear suddenly. Many more people can now be cured.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Like the flu it will take out the weak in society for many years to come. We know it can mutate and that those who passed the virus are not immune to get it an other moment in their life.
Local authorities report local infection results. Since Wuhan local bosses were replaced (possibly by now ‘behind the bars’) the rest suddenly wised-up and the casualty numbers from everywhere improved beyond even (required) wild imagination.
In the UK we will soon have some magic too, when only those hospitalised in critical condition will be reported.
At some point, satellite photos of North Korea will be released. That’ll be one heck of a shock.