Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Watts Up With That is about more than just the climate. It’s also about interesting things in the world. So if you’re looking for just climate, this isn’t the post for you. However, it’s an interesting peregrination through the world of the mathematics of illness.
We’ve been hearing a lot about “exponential growth” in relation to the cases, spread, and mortality of the Wuhan Virus. And to be sure, it is indeed a global health crisis, one we need to take very seriously.
The curious part is, “exponential growth” doesn’t actually describe the progress of a given disease. Exponential growth never stops—it just gets larger and larger, going up and up without end. But that’s not what happens with a disease.
For example, here’s what has been happening with the total number of Wuhan Virus cases in South Korea.
Figure 1. South Korean total cases of Wuhan Virus since the beginning of the epidemic. SOURCE
We see the same shape of curve regarding the total number of deaths in China.
Figure 2. Total deaths in China from the Wuhan Virus since the illness took hold. SOURCE
Now, this particular “s-shaped” curve is called a “Gompertz Curve”. It is a curious curve, in that it is not symmetrical. It goes up faster than it levels off. Here’s an example.
Figure 3. A typical Gompertz Curve, which describes the evolution of the number of total cases or the number of total deaths in an epidemic.
So I thought I’d see how well those two graphs in Figures 1 & 2 could be fit by a Gompertz Curve. First, here’s the graph of the South Korean total cases, along with the best-fit Gompertz Curve:
Figure 4. Total Wuhan Virus cases, South Korea, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.
You can see why the Gompertz Curve is used to describe epidemics—it’s a very good fit to real-world epidemiological data. And because any given Gompertz Curve ends up at some maximum value that it doesn’t exceed, it also allows us to estimate the part of the curve that hasn’t happened yet. So far, there have been some 7,362 cases in South Korea. The Gompertz Curve estimates that the final total will be on the order of some 8,100 cases or so.
Now, that’s not a hard number, of course. All kinds of things can happen to bend the curve either up or down. But it’s better than just making a blind guess.
Next, here is the same kind of look, data plus best-fit Gompertz Curve, but at the deaths in China.
Figure 5. Total Wuhan Virus deaths, China, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.
Again, with the same caveats as before, we can take an educated guess at what the total number of deaths is likely to be. By the end, the Gompertz Curve estimates about 3,500 deaths.
Finally, let’s take a look at the deaths in South Korea. It’s still early, deaths are still happening, so this will be more uncertain.
Figure 6. Total Wuhan Virus deaths, South Korea, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.
Although the uncertainty in this one is greater, it looks at present like the final total of deaths in South Korea will be on the order of one hundred, give or take.
Conclusions
On my planet at least, this is very good news. Deaths in China look like they will be on the order of 3,500 lives lost. Cases in South Korea are near to peaking. And although it’s early to do this kind of analysis on the number of deaths in South Korea, to date there have only been 60 deaths, and the best fit Gompertz Curve peaks out at a hundred deaths.
Please be clear, though, that I’m not minimizing the danger. A virus of this nature can do immense harm if we don’t stay ahead of it. What I’m saying is that China and South Korea show that we indeed can stay ahead of it.
So let me suggest that we take all precautions, wash hands, social distancing, canceling large gatherings, testing as and when required, self-quarantine, it’s very important to slow the virus down … and that we also dial way back on the hysteria and the politicization of the issue. I assure you, assigning blame to one political party or the other and buying six cases of toilet paper won’t help end the epidemic. Although I must confess, thanks to the web I finally understand the panic buying of toilet paper. I read that it’s because when one person sneezes, a hundred people soil their underpants … so don’t be one of them.
Here on my hillside, I don’t need social distancing. I’m a hermit anyhow, have been for a while now. I hate going to town, and I love my forest home. The plum trees in our entry were fooled into blossoming by the warm dry February.
But then the plum trees got surprised by the March rains. The ground underneath them looked like a local snowfall, there was not a blossom left on the limbs … we’ll see if we get any plums in the fall.
I spent the day using the weedwhacker to give a haircut to the flowers and greenery growing up through the bricks on the patio I built … perhaps I should have put down geotextile fabric, but I do like the way the plants never stop shouldering their way up through the tiny crevices. I take it as a sign of hope, that life endures no matter the obstacles.
My best to all, wash your hands, stay well in these parlous times.
w.
As Usual: I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words that you are responding to. This avoids endless misunderstandings and disagreements.
Data: All of the data is from the Worldometer site.
For Math Geeks Like Me: The Gompertz Curve is defined as
y(t) = α * exp(-β * exp(-k * t))
where
t = time alpha = upper asymptote beta = growth displacement k = growth rate
On Political Correctness: Yes, I know that the wokerati have taken up the cry that calling it the “Chinese Coronavirus” or the “Wuhan Virus” is RACIST!!!, their go-to accusation to try to discount anyone they don’t like. Consider it my small blow for freedom of speech and not bowing to political pressure. Me, I’m the least PC guy imaginable, and I was brought up in a household where racism was simply not tolerated in any form, so trying to bust me for being RACIST!! just doesn’t work. I know who I am.
And if you think that the people who are claiming that this is RACIST!!! actually believe it and it’s not just sleazy political maneuvering, consider the following two tweets, six weeks apart:
Followed by …
However, if you insist on taking that route, before you bust me for calling it the Wuhan Virus because it originated in Wuhan, please let me know your racism-free politically 100% correct alternative names for each of the following illnesses, all of which are named for their place of origination:
- Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
- Lyme Disease
- Marburg Fever
- West Nile Virus
- Valley Fever
- Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
- Ebola Virus
- German Measles
- Lassa Fever
- Ross River Fever
- La Crosse Encephalitis
- Legionnaire’s Disease
- St. Louis Encephalitis
- Heartland Virus
- Bornholm Disease
- Junin Virus
- Nipah Virus
- Rift Valley Fever
- Zika Virus
- Norovirus
I mean, we don’t want to be RACIST!! regarding the people of St. Louis or the inhabitants of the Rocky Mountains, do we? …
Willis, I would like to know how testing actually affects the curve?
For a virus that can have relatively mild symptoms and was not the subject of an existing regular testing program, the sudden publicity, the availability of a test and the sudden rush to test may create such a curve. The curve flattens if the virus is relatively benign and the rate of testing catches up with with those infected in the community. The mortality curve could be similarly affected as Authorities begin testing for an assigning deaths to the disease.
Old age was once a common killer of forty-five year olds!
Not meaning to be a stick-in-the-mud, but Legionnaire’s Disease wasn’t named for the location, but because it originally hit the 1976 American Legion convention in Philadelphia.
But otherwise your basic point is strong.
True, but the point that the common names of many previous virus outbreaks could be seen by the overly sensitive to impugn some country, area, or group remains valid.
Hivemind
I believe that tularemia was named for Tulare County (Calif.). There is a long history of naming infectious diseases for the location where they were first identified.
The American Legion Convention doesn’t count as a place to you?
Granted, the convention center is not as big as Philadelphia. But the disease wasn’t discovered in all of Philadelphia. It was a localized disease which justifies a more localized name.
The Southern Hemisphere will be walloped, starting in about 2.5 months time. This is my prediction. There is going to be right royal mix up of colds, annual flu and covid-19. Our medical profession will be swamped.
None of the major historical virus pandemics lasted less than 2 years globally. They also involved 2 or more waves with the latter being more fatal than the prior.
I am 69. I will be taking no special precautions. Mainly because it is a waste of time. I recall a study where foreign tourists were taken through a strict procedure by health professionals in Kathmandu to establish if extraordinary care could eliminate visitors’ diarrhea. They reduced the incidence from the normal 90% down to 85%. I am not at all surprised. I have lived and worked in such places.
There will be those who will become paranoid. There will be those, like of the culture in which I live, who will make the jokes and carry on as normal.
Michael Carter were you the Melbourne lawyer?
visited a friend today,he yelled out he was self isolating
fine
except? :-))))
its a windy day , blowing away fromboth of us, and hes 15ft away and put a vehicle between us in case i got too close
really hard not to fall over laughing
his gfriend works in ut agedcare home so shes far more at risk, and yet she was also dropping his shopping off at the gate.
whats annoying is the ausgov isnt giving areas of infection anymore
which would be useful, especially for rural areas.
we have treechangers and richer retires who do travel a lot
theyre our biggest hazard.
as are blow-in tourists of course
last years flu started in march for me and it was nasty, usa has that now too, unless they really sorted the vax it was close to useless here. and it was one of those flus that gave a hell of a lot of us pneumonia as a goodbye treat , then i got the second round 7 mths later for shits n giggles and that left me with a lingering cough for months, abiotics for that and it still didnt wanna depart;-(
corona might be a sod but the standard one makes you feverish for many days neuralgia and splitting headaches sinus pain toothaches the lot
Is it racist suggesting that the people of Wuhan stop eating bats?
Yes Bats the elephant in the room! They will bring humanity to its knees. There’s no money in exterminating bats. The pandemic industry is just getting off the ground.
in Aus shooting or scaring the bats off or even using nets to save your fruit is banned
and so the bats do rather well and move into cities and increase risks to everything not just humans
once again you can thank….the greenies for well meaning idiocy
gues a schoolfull of kids getting lyssa virus might eventually make some see sense.
“in Aus shooting or scaring the bats off or even using nets to save your fruit is banned”
You need to put a windmill in your yard. That will take care of those bats. And apparently it is not illegal to kill bats via windmill in Australia. 🙂
Id like to hear theyd stop eating Dogs myself.
that said this might be a start for some decent health controls on animal production and care over there
“Wet Animal markets” have now been completely outlawed in China with severe penalties for non-compliance. And this time I think they will really enforce the ban.
They did ban them after the SARS epidemic, but allowed enforcement to lapse after a few years. It is politically sensitive, especially in southern China where supplying these markets is an important source of income for non-Han chinese minorities. There has already been rumours about riots and deaths.
A number of theories have been proposed on the rationale of the great Australian panic to buy toilet papers. I would like to add one theory. The panic started in the well heeled suburbs that are the greens of the greens. The other suburbs just followed under social pressure. Well the greens of the greens dont use any paper for washing their butts. Think about all the trees cut, the chemicals used, the transport, packaging i.e. boxes, plastic wrappers, etc. Look at the carbon footprint of using toilet papers. Then the main advice to wash the hands. Panic sets in. It is not enough to just wipe the butts with toilet papers, but do it twice, thrice, etc. until the butt hurts in spite of the softness of the toilet paper. Hence, the sudden urge and panic to stock toilet paper. Toilet paper became the front line to stop the virus.
Oh well . . nice to let the imagination rove. But, some fake news about toilet roll supply problems in a few Hong Kong media organs was the actual trigger. That nonsense spilled over via some connected media outlets, not known for fact checking,into Australia, and hey presto idiots fighting over toilet roll . . .
It’s much simpler than that. If someone sneezes another hundred cr@p in their pants.
Does anyone have any examples on Youtube of those lefties/greens/celebs who were openly stating that they hoped a virus or something similar would come around and “eradicate the scourge of humanity from the planet”? I wish I’d saved them because i just dismissd them at the time as the usual ramblings of the insane.
It is Prince Philip’s openly stated wish, to be reincarnated as a virus. He looks forward to infecting the world of humans and all but wiping them out, for the sake of the planet.
He was not pressed on how that wish might impact his grandsons and great grandchildren.
the British royal family has been killing millions all over the world and has been in existence for over a 1000 years . He did not need reincarnation, he just needed to marry into the family.
For COVID 19 probably earlier accession to the throne unless appropriate precautions are taken.
Since QE2 seems to be the only royal not barking mad, I hope for the sake of my British cousins that she stays well.
Yes! Long live the Queen!
Unfortunately, I wrote the book: Death By Design; John Graves.
A cabal of enviros pay $20B USD to a woman ex-Seal, ex-Mosad to eradicate the planet of humans. Spent several weeks with epidemiologists at CDC in Atlanta doing the research. The premise is based upon more than three dozen quotes from the ‘rich and famous’ about human extinction. Cousteau. Duke of W. Gore. BHO. WWF. Club of Rome.
Every day a new episode in reality reflects my imaginings in the book, including yesterday’s presser. Wish I had never written the damn thing…
Two endings: she fails; she succeeds.
Willis,
My advice on the weeds in the bricks… RoundUp.
Yep, Roundup first, but then once the plants have died a flamethrower to wipe out any remaining seeds.
Seadog! Always wonderful to hear from you, hugs all ’round to your family. And yes, flamethrower … nuke their bases from orbit.
w.
Why not just go straight to the flamethrower and skip the Roundup?
Flamethrower and Roundup unnecessary. Pan of boiling water straight from the kitchen stove works pretty well.
Boiling water not nearly as much fun as a flamethrower, though.
Thank you Willis. I posted the following earlier today on another site, before reading your article.
The Spanish Flu of 1918-19 reported struck in two waves and killed ~~50 million worldwide, and then went away for good. Why?
I suggest the virus did not die out in 1919, rather most of the people of the world were by then exposed to it, and had developed natural immunity. Am I right or wrong about this?
______________________
Our “Three Wise Men” coffee group say it will be over by September, and may come back for several more years during flu season.
Our best guess is that Covid-19 will take out people who are elderly and infirm, and who probably would have died from other forms of flu within a similar time period.
The much greater impact will be the economic chaos that results from the over-reaction to a relatively unimportant non-event. The sky it not falling.
Hope to be correct about this one.
Allen
It is my understanding that ‘novel’ diseases are often too effective at killing their hosts. Thus, they quickly burn through the potential victims. To survive, the infective agent must mutate to a less virulent form that kills less quickly or kills fewer hosts. Some, like syphilis and herpes, adopt a dormant stage for years or months, and then re-appear to again become infectious. I’ve often wondered whether the so-called seasonal flues have a similar strategy of hibernating during the warm, sunny months and then activate when people have lower vitamin D levels.
I remember some greenies/lefties/’celebs” over the years hoping for th eappearance of a virus or some such like to “eradicate the scourge of humanity on th eplanet”. I which I had noted them down. Does anyone have any examples which I can show to people?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/05/abc-sees-positive-climate-change-lessons-from-coronavirus/#comment-2931982
I called it in 2012 – see my post below.
The global warming/climate change scam was never about the climate.
It was apparent years ago that the global warming alarmists were knowingly deceiving us – no rational person could be that stupid for that long – and they must have a covert agenda.
That covert agenda is now clear – it is totalitarian control of society and personal profit based on the climate scam.
The global warming alarmists’ once-covert agenda is now fully exposed and the evidence is everywhere – the USA Democrats are shouting it from the rooftops.
Anyone who still questions the warmists’ treasonous agenda now is corrupted, delusional or both.
Regards,Allan
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/24/weekly-climate-and-energy-news-roundup-53/#comment-855037
Instead of arguing about the science of global warming, we should just listen to what these enviro radicals are actually SAYING and DOING.
Maybe they know their global warming science is bogus, but it suits their purpose to use global warming hysteria as a smokescreen to mask their true intentions.
The radical warmists have done everything in their power to starve the world of fossil fuel energy that is required for continued global prosperity.
They have squandered a trillion dollars of scarce global resources on catastrophic humanmade global warming (CAGW) nonsense.
Investing these squandered resources in clean drinking water and sanitation alone would have saved the ~50 million kids who died from drinking contaminated water in the past 25+ years of CAGW hysteria.
Intelligent use of these scarce global resources could have easily saved as many people as were killed in the atrocities of Hitler, Stalin, or Mao.
50 million people died in Hitler’s WW2. Josef Stalin killed another 50 million of his own people in internal purges. Leftist hero Mao gets the prize, killing as many as 80 million Chinese during his Great Leap Backward.
The radical environmental movement has done equally well, rivaling Mao for fatalities caused by the banning of DDT and the misallocation of scarce global resources on the fraud of catastrophic humanmade global warming.
Since many of these enviro radicals are latter-day Malthusians, Club of Rome types, etc., it is reasonable to assume that THIS WAS THEIR INTENTION.
Is this too radical a proposal? Well, NO it is not: In addition to what the radical enviros DO, let’s EXAMINE what they SAY (h/t to Wayne):
http://green-agenda.com/
”My three goals would be to reduce human population to about 100 million worldwide, destroy the industrial infrastructure and see wilderness, with its full complement of species, returning throughout the world.”
David Foreman,
co-founder of Earth First!
”A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal.”
Ted Turner,
Founder of CNN and major UN donor
The prospect of cheap fusion energy is the worst thing that could happen to the planet.”
Jeremy Rifkin,
Greenhouse Crisis Foundation
”Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun.”
Paul Ehrlich,
Professor of Population Studies,
Author: “Population Bomb”, “Ecoscience”
”The big threat to the planet is people: there are too many, doing too well economically and burning too much oil.”
Sir James Lovelock,
BBC Interview
”We need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination… So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts… Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”
Stephen Schneider,
Stanford Professor of Climatology,
Lead author of many IPCC reports
”Unless we announce disasters no one will listen.”
Sir John Houghton,
First chairman of the IPCC
”It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true.”
Paul Watson,
Co-founder of Greenpeace
”Childbearing should be a punishable crime against society, unless the parents hold a government license. All potential parents should be required to use contraceptive chemicals, the government issuing antidotes to citizens chosen for childbearing.”
David Brower,
First Executive Director of the Sierra Club
”We’ve got to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.”
Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
”No matter if the science of global warming is all phony… climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.”
Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment
”The only way to get our society to truly change is to frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe.”
Emeritus Professor Daniel Botkin
”Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”
Maurice Strong,
Founder of the UN Environmental Program
”A massive campaign must be launched to de-develop the United States. De-Development means bringing our economic system into line with the realities of ecology and the world resource situation.”
Paul Ehrlich,
Professor of Population Studies,
Author: “Population Bomb”, “Ecoscience”
”If I were reincarnated I would wish to return to earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels.”
Prince Phillip, Duke of Edinburgh,
husband of Queen Elizabeth II,
Patron of the Patron of the World Wildlife Foundation
”The only hope for the world is to make sure there is not another United States. We can’t let other countries have the same number of cars, the amount of industrialization we have in the US. We have to stop these third World countries right where they are.”
Michael Oppenheimer
Environmental Defense Fund
”Global Sustainability requires the deliberate quest of poverty, reduced resource consumption and set levels of mortality control.”
Professor Maurice King
”Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.”
Maurice Strong,
Rio Earth Summit
”Complex technology of any sort is an assault on the human dignity. It would be little short of disastrous for us to discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy, because of what we might do with it.”
Amory Lovins,
Rocky Mountain Institute
”I suspect that eradicating small pox was wrong. it played an important part in balancing ecosystems.”
John Davis,
Editor of Earth First! Journal
**********************************
Thanks Allan. This is the kind of thing I was thinking of. I’m sure I can remember hearing some latter day “celebs” going on about wanting to rid the planet of the entire human species but can’t find any. Maybe they have all deleted them from their Twirtter accounts…
More quotes at http://green-agenda.com/
You forgot the best one — “Never let a good crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that is it’s an opportunity to do things you could not do before.”
We still cannot comprehend how the world-wide web of internet information flows has changed everything about human behaviors, interactions, and assumed knowledge.
Today, someone can tweet or post something from China and 2 seconds later someone in Europe is reading it and responding. Multiply that ten-million-fold in every direction imaginable to include the folks at the South Pole station to the folks on a icebreaker research ship in the Arctic. Information is flowing and changing faster than we can digest it, before the next piece hits.
As for me, I sit here safely ensconced in Tucson Arizona, from an immunological standpoint, whilst communicating globally to WUWT readers from Australia to the UK. The warmth and on-going humidity of late (copious mid-March rains in Phoenix and Tucson for the month of March is unusual but welcome) may stall corona virus transmission in the Northern Hemisphere. So many things are being cancelled now. Outdoor fairs, Spring festivals, sporting events.
We need to stop panicking about this virus that for the vast majority of folks is a simple but annoying cold virus. Yes we need to protect the vulnerable, including both my 80+ year old parents who are both at most risk.
What will stop this virus now is herd immunity at around 80%. We can get there by delaying spread until the summer gives us some breathing space to get a live, attenuated COVID-19 vaccine in-place.
Respiratory viruses like Corona Virus need live, attenuated virus for a proper programming of the immune system to prevent a pathogenic antibody Th-2 skewed response that enhances symptoms of a real infection rather than blunting them. You can take that to the bank.
1/. That is UK strategy.
2/. Experts are saying 60% not 80%
3/. Most feared outcome is rapid spread and overloaded hospitals
4/. vaccine already in animal test phase.
5/. We are as a nation voluntarily self isolating.
6/. Hoping personally for a vaccine before next winter. I tick all the high risk boxes.
Fortunately we are the most developed nation of all when it comes to online shopping: no need to stockpile when you can order food from the supermarkets
Except that the supermarkets are currently being flooded by demand and some elderly customers are having to wait a week for delivery!
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-shoppers-in-quarantine-wait-a-week-for-deliveries-jgcbk95j6
2) With an uncontained R0 of about 3.5-4.0 (Wuhan data) 80% is realistic
3) Is sure to happen
6) You can forget about that. It might be ready for large scale deployment before the 2021-22 flu season if we are really lucky.
“5/. We are as a nation voluntarily self isolating.”
No country is an island… Oh, wait.
UK will collapse long before it’s strategy has any chance of working. UK is not the most developed country as regards online shopping, this is typical English arrogance (I am English). Vaccine is probably at least 18 months away. If reinfection or mutation of the virus occurs, having a vaccine may be of little use.
Exactly. The panic over this bad case of the common cold is like amputating a limb over a bruise. If the panic continues, that limb might be our heads if this manufactured crisis leads to a new wave of socialist policies – they certainly aren’t letting this one go to waste.
I wonder how many similar viruses have done this throughout human history and have been recorded as pneumonia – a catch-all term for acute lung diseases – because have you ever heard of testing for a cold virus?
From genetic testing, we can only that some mostly old people died while hosting a virus, not because of a virus.
Just like when a person who had a flu vaccine died the same year, we don’t automatically conclude that the vaccine is the culprit. It would be unsound to say that every vaccinated person who dies the same year was killed by the vaccine.
“What will stop this virus now is herd immunity at around 80%. We can get there by delaying spread until the summer gives us some breathing space to get a live, attenuated COVID-19 vaccine in-place.”
By delaying the spread of the virus, we are also giving ourselves time to develop other treatments such as anti-viral drugs and antibodiy treatments that can be given to those most ill to help them make it through the illness.
Delay of the spread of the virus is the name of the game right now.
I should have added that a talking head on tv this morning said there were about 30 different treatments that were currenly being tested for their effectiveness against the Wuhan virus. He said some of the drugs used against other diseases may also be effective against the Wuhan virus. And a lot of these results will be available in a matter of weeks to months
Even if we don’t have a vaccine we still may have drugs that can at least give the most vulnerable a fighting chance of getting over it..
SNIP – no discussion from you of vax, anti-vax, pro-vax, all-vax, no-vax … pick another subject and you’re more than welcome to post.
Thanks,
w.
Sorry about the double post. My laptop ran out of power… I also posted about the current situation in Thailand which may have been lost. We have had an update now to 82 total cases. We have seen one death but the victim was also reported to have also had dengue fever. (That nearly took me out in 2012…). The first case here was seen in about January. Up to about a month ago we had tens of thousands of Chinese tourists arriving daily – since then they have stopped coming. We have seen none of the mass hysteria here or any panic buying. No obvious “exponential” rise in Covid-19 cases either. We would have heard all about it had it been happening.
And that is a very strong indication that the virus does not do well in a tropical climate.
And before somebody says “How about Iran/Spain”, check the geography. In both countries the spread is happening on a high plateau with cold climate this time of year. Portugal with a mostly milder coastal climate is much less affected.
Singapore would probably not have much of a problem either, except for virtually universal AC.
I’m hoping that sun/humidity/temperature are environmental factors that slow infection. Also, there is a definite age effect and Singapore is another place with a lower median age compared to Italy, Spain. Japan is an interesting test case.
Interesting matter. I wonder if this can allow us to estimate the “real” benefit of the actions that we (Governants?) take?
My question is. There’s a way to plot a line with the early Data and compare it with the real one at the end?
Everything is a wave, including the number of infections during an epidemic.
Thanks for the comparison Willis. Much appreciated.
Wuhan is not a race. It’s a place.
If I say Birkenau death camp does that mean I hate Germans or Jews? No.
End of story.
BTW this trouble shooting truck driver is still running team. This week Runs from Anderson, IN to Vandalia, OH to San Antonio, TX then back to Anderson. Then back down to San Antonio. Then up to Salem, IL to relay trailer with another driver that we took down to Laredo, TX. Then from Laredo took a trailer to Louisville, KY and the rest of the load in the trailer back to Anderson. Started Sunday morning at 10:00. Got back to Anderson at 23:10 tonight (Friday).
Traffic still heavy and trucks running just like they have been since the economic boom started. Not a single mask in evidence anywhere.
Not mentioned on the news but per US DOT hours of service regulations for drivers carrying supplies having to do with the current situation have been suspended until further notice.
The trucks have to keep running. Without them we would all have great difficulties sooner or later and for most of us sooner no matter how much toilet paper and hand sanitizer has been horded. So the places that produce the materials we need must ship and warehouses and retailers must receive the things we all need. The whole manufacturing/processing and logistic chain must continue to operate. So the truck stops and various other services truckers need must continue to do what they do. If they didn’t for the essentials the death toll this virus takes would be miniscule in comparison to what would result. Let’s just say people wouldn’t be thinking about their 401ks because they would be more worried about making it to retirement.
First run next week departing Anderson, IN at 02:00 Monday morning auto parts bound for Mexico via a warehouse in Nogales, AZ right on the border. We take the parts down in a refrigerated trailer that has front and rear cooling/heating units and a movable partition. We use that kind of trailer because the backhaul out of Tucson is a pickup for Roche labs. Three weeks ago we did that run and temp for the front portion was set a 41 deg. F for reagents and some kind of special medical slides. The back portion was set a 68 deg. F for crated diagnostic equipment. We delivered the equipment to one facility in the large Roche campus in Indianapolis, and the stuff in the front went to another building. Who knows? Maybe this time we will be carrying COVID-19 test kits and the automatic diagnostic machines that are supposed to be coming on line to speed up the processing of the samples that are supposed to cut the time for diagnosis down to about 48 hours counting transit time.
rah, truckers have always been good to me … stay safe on the highway.
w.
Han in Wuhan refers to the ethnic Han, the majority in China.
Anyway, to me Wuhan virus sounds about right. When I worked in Wuhan, I always found it painful to be there. except for the visits to Captain Jacks, Brussels Beer Garden and a couple of other lounges. And to some of the Chinese who look down upon foreigners, we were the viruses.
Thanks rah.
I’ve not been out and about, but will be on I-90 in Washington State next Tuesday morning.
In addition to long-haul folks like you, the section I’ll view usually has locally grown hay being carried to west coast (Puget Sound) ports, and apples to packers (fresh) and processors (juice) to local places.
The number and variety of trucks is always of interest.
I need a cheat-sheet to tell me what some of the specialty ones carry.
Regards, John
John you and every other driver out there needs to know there are one heck of a lot of new drivers behind the wheels of those trucks out there. Just be aware. Some of those steering wheel holders don’t belong in control of what is potentially 80,000 lb of rolling death. It takes time before the bad apples get weeded out, but either the law or worse catches up to the vast majority of them sooner or later. Its’ the “worse” option none of us want to be a part of.
Thank you Willis. More amunition.
For context and to compare Covid19 with other pandemics I looked up how many UK deaths were caused by the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic. I came across this prediction printed in the Gaurdian
“Up to 65,000 people in the UK could die from swine flu if the pandemic achieves it worst possible potential, the government warned today.
The chief medical officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said that in the worst case scenario 30% of the UK population could be infected by the H1N1 virus, with 65,000 killed.
The best case scenario is that 5% of the population contract the virus, with 3,100 deaths.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/16/swine-flu-cases-rise-britain
How many deaths were there? NHS says 138 and Telegraph says 457
And I found this thoughtful piece:
There seems something wrong to me.
China: 1.100.000.000 inhabitants.
Wuhan area: 11.000.000.
Total deaths all over China: 3.200
So, Corona takes a death toll of ~ 0,0003 % of the population Chinawide.
More than 97% of those who fell ill do actually survive.
This Corona-incident seems white noise to me, statistically, I dare say.
Anything wrong with that calculation? Let me know, please.
Hi NN
The current population of China is more than 1,437,000,000 based on the latest United Nations data.
“Total deaths all over China: 3,200”
China mortality from all causes in 2018 was 7.121 deaths per 1000 people or 0.34%, which makes it 28,000/day while average for COVID was (averaged) about 50/day.
Statistically during last couple of months COVID contributed 0.18% to the daily total or about less than 2 per 1000.
That wouldn’t even register on my digital kitchen scale; statistics is a ‘numerical origami’.
to paraphrase: ‘anything wrong with the above calculation?’
Thanks, Vuk.
So, why the heck are so many governments kickings up such a terrible fuss? Press and other media are full of who said what to whom instead of communicating the simplest rules like wash your hands regularly, don’t come too close to others, stay at home when you have a cold and DON’T PANIC! ???
I do not believe in conspiracies, but this time there seems to be something pretty weird going on.
NN
You remarked, “… this time there seems to be something pretty weird going on.” Yes, I agree with you. It seems to be an over-reaction based on the information available to the public. That suggests that the governments know something that they aren’t sharing. An alternative approach would have been a ‘Shelter in Place’ directive for those of retirement age because they appear to be most at risk for dying. Allowing Herd Immunity to develop quickly among those who seem the least impacted would ultimately protect the older people and have the least impact on the economy because the most at-risk people are largely retired. Something doesn’t seem right here, compared to how the world has reacted to recent similar pandemics.
Clde, thanks.
Afaik the median is currently at 63 years of age. The elderly are clearly almost the only victims. All others show no or just mild symptoms with almost no casualties. For the sake oft the elderly, make them stay at home, out of the reach of potential carriers of the virus. That will do. Government has other plans, it seems. Either they do have indeed other plans or there is something we, the sheeple, just must not know. Hmmm….
I posted the following on Chiefo’s site:
Time to read:
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
As a society, we have panicked and set in motion a period of frantic activity.
Most of this activity is wrongheaded. Serious disruptions, too numerous to list, are underway.
There is no reverse.
“Anything wrong with that calculation?”
yes, you are using ‘official numbers’ instead of real data.
+1
Two observations regarding China’s “data”:
In early February, the virus had spread to most provinces and was growing exponentially with the range of total cases in most provinces around Hubei in the hundreds, say 200-900 cases. President Xi, around the 3rd of February, then declared stopping the spread of the virus to be a “priority.”
Within three days, exponential growth ended, to be replaced by a slowing growth rate each day. That continued until about Feb 20th. Around Feb 20, President Xi declared that all new virus cases would be the responsibility of the provincial and local authorities. That put a halt to new cases within two days.
New cases in the eight provinces I was recording from Feb 13 to Feb 14: 117 cases and slowing
New cases from Feb 23 to Feb 24 in the same eight provinces: 3 cases total.
As for the growth in Hubei Province which includes Wuhan, all of those authorities have been replaced. Unfortunately, I wasn’t recording the new cases from the start, so I can’t illustrate the sudden fall off from the previous exponential growth rate in those eight provinces. Suffice it to say new cases were growing rapidly until just prior to Xi’s declaring it a priority.
It’s possible their numbers reflect reality, just not probable. More likely, it’s just Chinese propaganda. As for calling it the Wuhan Virus, we’d better continue to do just that because they now have a propaganda effort underway to claim it originated in the U.S. Sadly, our press seems inclined to aid that recent effort by calling anyone who labels it the Wuhan virus a racist.
No, but mortality among infected is about 1 %.
The chinese, by drastic and brutal means, stopped transmission before more than a few hunded thousand were infected.
And about 4,000 people are still “serious” or “critical”, and that figure has not decreased much in recent days despite few new cases. A lot of those 4,000 will probably ultimately die.
4000 was regular flu deaths in France last year with a pop. of 64 million. ( That was a good year, 2016 was 15,000 ) .
All of those 4000 will die.
“…mortality among infected is about 1 %.” And then again it affects mostly the immune system compromised people like us old folks.
1.100.000.000 x 0,0003 = 330.000
1.1.000.000 x 0,0003 = 3.300
If China, which by many measures is a Third World nation, has a tally of only 3,000 deaths against a population of 1.4 billion—and that population, while four times larger than that of the US, is packed into a landmass almost exactly the same size as ours—then I’m pretty optimistic about our chances here in the States.
Thanks
Is it not like climate science , you know what it should look like and fill in the gaps?
Number of tested is crucial.
Random or not?
But I like your optimism !
Good comment Willis, as always.
Would love to read your Thoughts on the substantial article by Tomas Puerto floating around the web. He urges strict swift action by governments and society to curtail the exponential growth of Covid 19. He argues that without this action the exponential growth will continue and be disastrous for society.
How doe this scenario fit with the Compertz curve you have explained?
Rayb
The author is Thomay Pueyo.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Further to my comments about Thailand. A mate of mine thinks he might have had it in January – along with a few of his mates. That might well be possible. How many people had a bad cold or whatever but didn’t bother going to the Doc? As Covid-19 didn’t even have a name then – the Chinese were keeping quiet about it – how many have had it and survived?
I think it’s a bit of a storm in a teacup myself and the mass hysteria in response is something I hope we learn from and not repeat in the future. Wolf has been cried too many times already. As for “exponential” growth of these things we would all have been dead by now had these things been “exponential”. As has been noted flu deaths this year are far in excess of CV deaths. How many flu deaths could have been avoided if people had simply followed better hygeine? If the biggest lesson from all of this is that we all wash our hands more offten and better then that will be a plus… But once the scare is over I reckon most people won’t.
And, having worked in China and seen hundreds of thousands of them on holiday here in Thailand, don’t get me started on their “personal hygeine”… It leaves much to be desired…. I like to walk along the beach here in Pattaya of a morning. It was an obstacle course avoiding all of the sputum bombs on the pavement… I’m not saying they were all left by our visitors from China but as 80% of all of the people blocking hte pavements here were from China it’s a fair bet…
Only country in Europe with apparently no detected infection is Monte Negro (pop.600k) and Kaliningrad province (not part of mainland) of Russia. Anyone coming from outside MN has to register with police and self-isolate for 14 days, and might be tagged with an ‘electronic monitoring’ police tags so to make sure that person stays put.
Reuters news agency: Anther conspiracy ‘theory’, as if we didn’t have enough already
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-diplomacy/u-s-summoning-chinese-ambassador-over-beijing-coronavirus-comments-u-s-official-says-idUSKBN2102XW
When China, Korea come out of lockdown, what will stop the virus re-emerging if they don’t have herd immunity? Or will they be in lockdown until a vaccine is available?
In 1918 there was a “second wave” of a [presumably] mutated, more virulent influenza that had the nasty habit of killing healthy young and middle aged people
https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence
That is also a risk if they develop a vaccine for the first variant.
I read somewhere that there are already about 200 coronaviruses in general circulation, it’s why we get 2-3 colds per year. I’d like to know why, apart from it being novel, how this Covid-19 is so different to the others.
Hi Greg I came across the a month ago. Its speculation about the Spanish Flu.
https://www.statnews.com/2018/12/05/1918-spanish-flu-unraveling-mystery/
worth reading.
Caution do not break glass 🙂
michael
China requires 14 days quarantine for entry. And they will presumably have to keep this up for quite a while.
Willis, I would like to know how testing actually affects the curve?
For a virus that can have relatively mild symptoms and was not the subject of an existing regular testing program, the sudden publicity, the availability of a test and the sudden rush to test may create such a curve. The curve flattens if the virus is relatively benign and the rate of testing catches up with with those infected in the community. The mortality curve could be similarly affected as Authorities begin testing for an assigning deaths to the disease.
Old age was once a common killer of forty-five year olds!
Sorry
Thought it was a sensible uestion.
Might be going to a spam filter?
The situation in Italy is somewhat different. Almost one-third of the Italian population are non-responders to antibiotics. If such a non-responders has to undergo intubation or other forms of therapy like infusions, chances are very high that they get infected by by MRSA or similar bacteria. Italian hospitals are known to be “bacteria-friendly” areas. That certainly is one of the reasons why Italy is on top of the statistics.
there was not a blossom left on the limbs … we’ll see if we get any plums in the fall.
Probably not, but in 2021 you’d better be prepared to prop up the branches.
I never get plums in the fall. Most of mine ripen in summer and are eaten.
I’m in central Washington State where we just got 5″ of snow, it is 37°F at 2:30 pm, and
the low tonight is forecast as 18°.
I think tree blossoms follow the “Gompertz Curve” —
I follow this site: https://cherryblossomwatch.com/cherry-blossom-watch-march-14-2020/
As from yesterday, 13th, the mother company (based in Switzerland) went all of a sudden on insane lockdown and compulsory test rules. Including forget fuel saving and run packs (AC) in high flow whenever applicable, safety pilot in case one of us is incapacitated while on duty and so on.
From “be cool but careful” to “be scared, very scared” in a matter of a few hours.
It all looks like as if someone up has been paid a surprise visit by “men in black with the government” obviously willing to help.
And early this morning, an emergency phone call to all parents, school suspended until otherwise specified.