AFP: The “Silver Lining” Climate Benefits of Coronavirus will be Undone by Economic Stimulus Packages

China’s burgeoning coal power industry

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to Marlowe Hood, governments including China are preparing to buy their way out of trouble by pushing money into high carbon industries, without any consideration for the climate impacts.

Climate crisis on back-burner as pandemic threat looms

Marlowe HOOD,AFPMarch 8, 2020

Paris (AFP) – Economic shock waves from the coronavirus outbreak have curbed carbon pollution from China and beyond, but hopes for climate benefits from the slowdown are likely to be dashed quickly, experts say.

As governments prepare to spend their way out of the crisis, including with large infrastructure projects, global warming concerns will be little more than an afterthought, dwarfed by a drive to prop up a stuttering world economy, they say.

Preparations for a make-or-break climate summit in November are already off track, with host Britain focused on its Brexit transition, and the challenge to its health system of the gathering epidemic.

Like an unintended lab experiment, the global health emergency demonstrates the cause-and-effect relationship that drives global warming.

In the four weeks up to March 1, China’s discharge of CO2 fell 200 million tonnes, or 25 percent, compared to the same period last year, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) — equivalent to annual CO2 emissions from Argentina, Egypt or Vietnam.

But any climate silver lining will be short-lived, experts warn.

“The emissions reductions we see now because of the epidemic are temporary, not structural,” said Imperial College London’s Joeri Rogelj, a lead scientist on the UN’s climate science advisory panel, the IPCC.

There are already signs that Beijing — impatient to reboot China’s economy — will rain down cash on carbon-intensive infrastructure projects, as happened after the global recession in 2008, and again in 2015.

“Initial announcements of stimulus have had no environmental emphasis whatsoever,” noted Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA.

Proposals to further loosen controls on new coal power plants show that concerns about debt and emissions are being brushed aside, he told AFP.

“A round of cheap credits and a blind eye to inefficient polluting industries will lead to ‘retaliatory emissions’, setting China back on the goal of enhancing its climate targets,” said Li Shuo, a climate policy analyst with Greenpeace East Asia.

Read more: https://news.yahoo.com/climate-crisis-back-burner-pandemic-threat-looms-092249218.html

What a shocker. Instead of China setting a good climate example by taking the opportunity to reject industrialisation and going back to being dirt poor agrarians, they’re pulling out all the stops to undo the damage Coronavirus has done to their economy, even if that means a surge in CO2 emissions.

How dare they ignore the advice of Greenpeace.

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102 thoughts on “AFP: The “Silver Lining” Climate Benefits of Coronavirus will be Undone by Economic Stimulus Packages

    • setting China back on the goal of enhancing its climate targets

      China does not have ANY “climate targets”. It seeks to make its industry and energy generation more efficient and cost effective. Only the West wants to read that as “climate ambition”. For the Chinese it is world domination ambition and encouraging the West to destroy its own economies and industrial infrastructure and become totally dependent on them fits in very nicely with their aims. Thanks to Obama for getting China on board !!

      Germany:

      and the challenge to its health system of the gathering epidemic.

      Ooh, the gathering “epidemic” of 300 cases !!

      • I agree with the China part, but this epidemic is real. The US, being a decentralized collection of self-governing entities, lacks the top-down coordination necessary to stop it, like China, Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore have.

        • Your statement sounds a bit like the meme surrounding the idea that China has some advantages because they are run the way Bernie would run them. The FLU is real, Colds are real.

          Which country would you rather be in while also being infected with Covid 19?
          Which country would you rather be in while not infected [yet] with Covid 19?

        • Adam, pardon me but that is an odd comment since this virus got totally out of control in China first while they spent their energies hiding it from the world.
          By the time the world found out China had a serious problem, it was too late to contain it. If there is a model for How Not To Handle A Health Crisis, China is it.
          Because of their poor healthcare system and Xi’s efforts to hide the problem, many Chinese died unnecessarily. Communism kills in many ways. This was just one more example among many.

        • This virus is a blessing as it has exposed just how idiotic it was to offshore too many essential products into one nation. This should effectively kill China’s recent 50 year plan. That is a good thing, imo.

        • The epidemic is real, the virus is highly contagious and easily transmitted. Be that as it might, that doesn’t change the fact that most people have very mild symptoms and the death rate (so far) is much less than the flu.

          China can command and control all they want, but that won’t make up for their lack of abilities. We actually have much better and more effective public health than about any other nation. Besides, China is too interested in saving face for the CCP.

          • Mark – not really.

            Contagious means it will spread under the right conditions.

            Transmission is what those conditions actually are.

            For example something may have a 100% rate of transfer from saliva transfer (kissing et al) but not be airborne or surface contact. So you can touch what you like and breath what you like and be fine, but the moment you lock lips – bam!

            Or you could have something that covers everything and cannot be removed short of nuking from orbit, but only transfers in one in a million cases.

            I think… 🙂

        • Anyone who thinks China has some kind of advantage, don’t forget China’s first response was to arrest Dr. Wi Wenliang and threaten him with jail if he didn’t stop trying to warn people about the new virus. Just like they messed up with SARS by trying to conceal what was happening.

          It seems to be a major weakness of authoritarian systems. China did it with SARS and Covid-19, the Soviets did it with Chernobyl. Nobody wants bad news to reach the boss, and local officials in a system like China or the Soviet system appear to have almost unlimited power to stop the bad news from flowing up the chain of command, until the mess is too big to hide.

          • Eric: Thank you sir, for setting the record straight. I have to admit, I do get a bit triggered when people pull the “Communism has its benefits”, as if what they are saying is something that should be considered. I feel the need to nip that at the bud, with cogent discourse, and you did that without shutting down the discussion. Good on you sir!

            +100

        • Or how many loose and untested because the sufferers think they have a cold, a mild dose of the ‘flu or are asymptomatic?

          • Richard – You are absolutely correct. Here in the USA, the further question to ask is “How long has Covid-19 been in country and how many cases have gone undiagnosed?” Because, it looks and acts, exactly like a cold or flu and, the vast majority, just ride out an infection at home or continue to work, go to school and do business as usual. The mantra is, “If I can get out of bed. I can go to work.”

            Regards,

            Max

    • Of course they don’t believe in the hoax. But they sure have benefitted off of purveying it. Stupid Democrats.

    • There are only 2 numbers that we can know for sure for each country: the population in the country and the number of deaths from the virus. How many who are registered sick or healthy are extremely dependent on everyone who is sick being tested etc.
      How many who die per million in the country is also the only number that has practical significance. Whether you get Corona hard or easy means little as long as you survive.

      In China, it has killed 2.17 per million, in South Korea 1.05, in Iran 3.5 and in Italy 7.0 per million.
      Influenza killed 314 per million last year e.g in Norway. Thus, ordinary flu is about 100 times as dangerous. In the United States, that number is 103.

    • In China, Corona has killed 2.17 per million, in South Korea 1.05, in Iran 3.5 and in Italy 7.0 per million.
      Influenza killed 314 per million last year e.g in Norway. Thus, ordinary flu is about 100 times as dangerous. In the United States, that number is 103.

  1. When people are faced with a real and tangible crisis like Covid-19 they quickly lose interest in fake and imaginary crises like ‘Global Warming / Climate Change’.

    • So fickle nicholas, and when Covid-19 has resolved itself, they will return to CAGW. Unless we mount an intervention!

    • I am not convinced that COVID-19 is a real and tangible crisis. I am not saying it is fake news, nor am I saying it isn’t a serious disease. I am saying that the media has blown it way out of proportion.

      • Wade

        The news media is absolutely Cancerous, they have mentally destroyed people over the climate and now the virus. Its never positive or calming..

        They could be nice and tell people to be save and simply stay at home if they are ill, but they are making it out to be the end of the world.

        After being turned in to a anxiety trembling human, I totally stopped watching/listening to news media after I found this site.

      • I agree. The positive side of this is — how many people still have Climate Change as their top priority, when COVID-19 and the stock market are taking top priority in the news? BTW, I’m 72, and I figure that if I come down with COVID-19, I’ll just cough up a lung or two, and be fine. 😊

        On the news this morning, they announced no new case of COVID-19 here in Colorado. However, I think I’m going to make an appointment with my psychiatrist.

  2. Apparently they are dismantling emergency built hospitals, with no new cases reported in Wuhan province. If 3000+ dead in 2-3 months are accurate, another 2-3000 (mainly unproductive elderly with underlining medical problems) dead every couple of months for country of 1.4 billion is a minor collateral damage in order to keep Chinese economy and military strong. Whatever sacrifice is required China is determined to be at the top table now and in the future.

  3. The old “Experts Say” huh ?
    Climate Crisis or no Climate Crisis, there wont be any Govt buying or spending their way out of trouble with this one.
    This will be a cascading avalanche of epic proportions for the Global Economy, what are they going to do ? Force people to go out shopping or off to work in a service or manufacturing industry with no customers so that infection is assured and then places more strain on an already overloaded health care infrastructure ?

    • Governments can only push on a string so hard. Pull is what they need and they don’t have it.

    • The regular seasonal flu has killed far more people this flu season. In So. Korea where they’ve done massive testing so, they have a good idea of the death rate, COVID-19 has a rate of .1 to 1%. The CDC expects it will be the same in the US.
      I haven’t seen such hysteria since 2004 and that flu turned out to be a huge bust when it came to killing people.
      This is an emotional panic and the damage done to the economy by the hysteria will kill far more people than COVID-19 does.

  4. Economic Stimulus Packages just add to total debt and/or are diluted and incorporated by future inflation. We are still gorging on the cheap stimulus from the 2008/2009 melt down. Oil just dropped below $30 USD for WTI and the Asian and European Markets are dropping like a knife through hot butter. Conveniently, Russia and Saudi Arabia just dropped the hammer on an oil trade war just as the COVID-19 virus is peaking this week in the West. When is the USA going to learn that Saudi Arabia is not our ally? They are the ones that have been financing global terrorism along with Iran, as proxies of Russia who are also pitted against each other by Russian interests. Now both those parties are making a full on attack against North American oil production, either shale or oil sand. Things are being manipulated and controlled and Trillions are being stolen from investors on the artificial whip saw oscillations through global markets. This should be self evident by now, if you follow the money.

    My problem is do I spend my dry powder and pick up bargain sales on quality stocks today, or do we keep dropping more for a few more days/weeks until they announce ZERO interest rates, further punishing savers and having to pay nothing on sovereign debts. Is this another blip, or a structural drip by drip change these last 20 years that sees us become more unstable financially? Add all the ‘carbon’ mischief going on, and this smells like a rat.

    My guess, is that this is another major foreign market manipulation, ripping off the West using the technologies we gave them to be able to do so. A lot of money can be made if you have the nerve for it. I am glad I got out of the markets with some healthy profits before Christmas, but is Warren still right about buying these assets when the street is full of blood? Is this time different? I suspect not, but there is a lot of our wealth being transferred to hostile forces as we speak. And it will happen again, finally under the disguise of anthropogenic climate change. But those forces are own enemies now.

    • Earthling2

      I never thought of the financial wins for so many people, I stopped watching/reading the news after the climate scam, which was daily..

      If this is about debt/stocks/money making then could the virus be man made? Or something that just happened and people are jumping on the spoils?

      • Us common folk are picking through the table scraps. If I can stomach it, I can make a lot of money if I can figure out what day this turns around. How low does this go? Maybe tomorrow is even worse. I already started nibbling on Friday and I am down on that already big time going long. Luckily many of my lowball stink bids didn’t get filled. Some did already this morning. I thought Friday was the low.

        Many elites with a lot of money, and especially foreign money, with dirty and legit monies, are making billions and ultimately trillions over the long haul. But in the scheme of things, it will recover somewhat, someday. But don’t buy cruise ship stocks, short them. I am just wondering when is the time to sell my short on some of those? I saw a lot of this coming before Christmas, but never thought we would be having a global panic 3 months later with a potential pandemic. This is right out of left field, but I don’t know if this was engineered by hostile leftist forces and if this is about taking down the West because we sanctioned Russia and Iran so heavily. They would certainly be mad enough to do so, if they didn’t fear consequences, but I just can’t see that either. Murphy is involved in this, and when bad things happen, it comes in spades from every direction and then everything follows from a cascade in lack of faith and then wealth destruction via theft.

        I doubt the virus is manmade or purposely released. Murphy has laws as well. But who knows? Why were the markets making record highs just a few weeks ago while COVID-19 was on fire in Asia and even starting to travel to new hotspots, and now because it jumps to Italy, Iran, SK, and somewhat on the North American continent, now it is the end of the world? There was a lot of selling the last month at record highs and many fools buying into it. Nothing to worry about the talking heads said.

        Fear and Panic…that is exactly what the climate scam is. It is straight up extortion and racketeering but that is now a normalized state activity, by numerous stupid Western countries that have embraced that model, and that has yet to materialize. The warming part will be net beneficial, since if it were the other way around and we actually had massive harvest failures from a cooling event, and then it would biblical in scale like a few of the Horseman showing up in real time. We are witnessing history and it isn’t going to be pretty. A recession is all but assured now, and maybe even a real Depression if we don’t get a grip.

        • A very fine comment E2. With Political Correctness, lefty so-called diversity, open borders, etc. It is a perfect set up for promoting a pandemic or some other real crisis. It should have been actually predictable given the wrongheadedness of most Western leaders.

          Trudeau so far has no plan – oh apparently he takes the temperature of arrivees, a totally hopeless response for a disease with an incubation period.

          Anyway, I’ve loaded up with good junior mining gold stocks that have responded nicely. It would be nice to be able to jump from gold into industrial at the turning point.

    • E2
      Take that dry powder and buy Gold or Silver, This is Different.
      They have no way out of this, they can’t print themselves out and they can’t buy themselves out, and once the cascade starts there will be no stopping it.
      Broken supply chains and Just In Time delivery on a global scale let alone domestically will compound this event like nothing else ever has before. What we are seeing right now is just the beginning of this event, the literal tip of the Ice Berg.
      Health Care will be overwhelmed, quarantines will disrupt all service industry and retail commerce, Airlines, Domestic transport, Rail, Shipping, Supply Transport, Hotels, Entertainment, Sports, Schools, Universities, Etc, Etc, Etc plus many more will all grind to a halt over coming months.
      The person using Air BNB to pay for their mortgage, The uni student working as a Barista or Waiter, The Truck Driver, The Nurse, The Tour Guide, The Majority living pay packet to pay packet… All will be defaulting on loans and spending whatever they do have to feed themselves and their kids… IF there is anything left in the kitty to do so after a month or two, in most cases a week or two.

      Ask yourself what happens when the first cracks start to appear in the Banking system ? We are barely into week two in the West of this Epidemic and already we have OPEC disintegrating before our eyes and markets taking time out.

      This is going to be very very Nasty.

      • Southerncross

        I think world markets and businesses will learn that keeping all manufacturing in china is a big mistake, as the west/europe does not like to loose money. But once the virus is under control, it will be business as usual..

        Also i thought the same thing for a minute, but then I remembered the plague, Spanish flu, small pox, world war one, and two, And humans grew and soldiered on, look at us now.

        All football games in the uk are on, Darts, in fact all sports are on, schools/university’s are open, chat shows with big crowds are on, morning and evening trains are packed solid as usual, shops, pubs, bars are packed as usual

        People are being safe.

        • G’day Sunny

          Business as usual ? The West has already sold it’s manufacturing soul to China, sold out it’s citizens, Sold out it’s ability to stand on it’s own. The West does not even manufacture it’s own Medicine any more, just witness India closing down exports on over 125 products as they feel they need them themselves.
          This Virus will not be under control any time soon, The Plague 75-200 million deaths when the total population was less than 1.5 Billion people. Small Pox 3-5 hundred million during the 20th century. Spanish Flu killed around a third of the Planets population.

          Covid-19 is Way More contagious and the CFR is at least 20 times more lethal than the Spanish Flu.

          The population back in 1920 was just under 2 billion people, The average voyage to another continent was 4-6 months. Global Finance/Currencey was disconnected and reliant upon paper transfers.
          Like hard copy transfers. It was also Backed by Gold.

          Your ancestors lived without Air conditioning, Frozen foods, Just in time delivery, the internet, 5 Billion other people, International air travel, Subways transporting millions per day and Sky scrapers housing millions of workers that travel from Home to Work each day s well.
          I’d urge you to do some thinking about Exponential effects, The reliance of everyday people upon the current regime of commercial realism and what those two combined mean for today’s crowded City’s when it comes to JUT supply systems. You might then want to carry over the effects of what that means for our current Global derivatives system when the current financial system is unable to either print nor buy it’s way out of the reality of the current market.

          Are Gov’t going to lower interest rates below Zero ? They have SFA to go any lower. What does that mean for Pensions/Pension Funds ? Where do the rest of the Sick go when Hospitals are overwhelmed with the average 15% of this Virus taking up Hospital beds? Health care can’t get even basic PPE or even protective mask’s right now, what happens in three months time, five months time ?

          Yaaa Football games are still on, Schools Still open, yada yada yada…. What happens when Schools, Uni’s, Daycare, Sports grounds, Pub’s, Shops, ETC are all closed ? What happens when you are restricted from going from point A to B due to Quarantine ? What happens when the whole service industry in your local area is shut down overnight for the foreseeable future…Two three months or more ?

          This is a whole new world from 100 year ago, everything is much more connected even from 30 years ago. We in the west have become far more reliant upon the cheap labour out of Asia than we would like to realize as a society. Shit we don’t even make most of our own medicine any more.

          Once upon a time, we as a society used to revere the knowledge held by the Oldest in our society, It was with their knowledge that we collected and condensed experience as a people which over time taught us what worked and what didn’t.

          Life experience mattered, it was why we all listened to the elders who survived the struggles of life back in the day, it was why law’s were made based upon their observations. It’s why we still pay respect to those who fought and died to protect those laws and traditions.

          Yet seemingly we are all past that now and willing to accept a Virus that kills the majority of those who have been there and done that, Those who built what we have now, Those who fought and died for it all in the past. Cause Money, Cause Stock Exchange, Cause Hurt Feelings, Cause Progress….

          A question for all of you… How many of you know a Child under 15 that knows how to grow a plant that produces food ? Has ever seen an animal killed and cleaned for food, Caught a Fish and Gutted it for food ? Milked a cow, made a preserve of any kind, know where cheese comes from ?

          Went shopping today in Far North Queensland Australia, not a toilet roll to be found anywhere…. No problems with supply say’s the Gov’t, Yet the supermarkets are restricting people to 1 pack per person now for a product produced here in Australia… and their shelves are still empty a week after the great toilet roll run of 2020. I stocked up at the beginning of January with 2X 20 pack on every trip into town.

          The current mantra is Selfish, Stupid, Panic, Prepper, Stocker, Freak. Etc, Etc. Yet the shelves are still bare for those who didn’t get in early despite all the reassurances that there is plenty of TP available for everyone, Shit one lot are going 24/7 to ensure supply for everyone.

          So where is it all then ? And if this is just the first few weeks of Supply line interruptions, What is next huh ?

          Don’t use mask’s they tell us, they don’t help at all in stopping the virus… We need them for the Doctors and Nurses instead. So why do they work for the Doctors and Nurses and not us I ask ? Politicians are the least trust worthy species on Earth, Watch what they Do not what they Say.

          • Masks? They mostly prevent splash from close contact. Since doctors are physically in contact with patients, they wear them. They also do not want to spread their germs into an open wound or infect you.
            Mostly, the mask wearing person is protecting other people from spewing their sputum onto them.

            Masks also help the user with dust inhalation, and do filter out some amount of pollution, depending on the type and if it’s properly used. I used to wear a metals filtering mask at a steel foundry because of Hex Cr and other metal fumes. I tell you, it’s certainly cumbersome wearing a mask since you need to work harder to get air in and out and you breath your own air to some extent, especially with short breaths.

          • Good analysis SC…everything is good until it isn’t. And now the law of large numbers even apply more than ever. Take out any leg of the table and it falls over. Given that we are so reliant on everything working normally every day, if anything goes wrong with anything essential, there are huge problems. That will be our problem going forward now for the long term future, especially as we rely more on technology and high density populations living in close proximity. All we need now is for good old Murphy to send us a Carrington level event, and we have an electrical grid problem while everyone is possibly quarantined, and then it is a real catastrophic emergency. Just no refrigeration would probably do it after a few days. Not to mention possible dozen’s of other technologies that are temporarily knocked off-line such as GPS, satellite or other internet based technologies. We are probably now even more vulnerable now in modern day times, than those in previous centuries, since as you say, people don’t even really realize where food comes from. At least people in previous centuries knew basic survival skills if they weren’t already dead or immobilized from disease or war.

            And soon there will be 8 Billion people. It is all but essentially guaranteed that any major Black Swan event will do incredible damage. But Sunny is maybe part right, that we will survive, but I would add a caveat to that, that it will be at great expense and huge toll on human life. We are not immune to the same disasters that felled our ancestors, and in fact, may even face worse case scenarios.

      • The banking system can be propped up with more printing but private capital and debt must consume each other until some bottom is found. I still can’t get my thinking around negative interest rates and the impact that they will have on the battle between inflation and deflation. Perhaps on paper GDP can even be salvaged, but spending in the fracking industry just hit a brick wall.

        COVID-19 is frosting in my opinion as the energy war rages. Interesting times!?

      • They certainly shouldn’t be our ally, since their money has been financing the global terrorism wave the last 25-30 years. Some of them were directly involved in 911, and the vast majority of those guys were Saudi nationals. But we treat them like an ally. Instead of Iraq, it should have been Iran we took down. And put Saudi Arabia on notice that we won’t tolerate this spread of Wahhabism. But Trump is basically right when he says this is a 1600 year old blood feud in the Middle East and Afghanistan and the rest of the Stan’s. Let them annihilate each other if they want to, but now it involves the whole world. Including Russia and ultimately China. All part of the old Silk Road to Rome.

        • We treat them like an ally because on many occasions they have behaved as such.
          Are they a reliable ally? No.
          Are there many people in their country who hate us? Yes.

          The point is that we are better off working with them to the extent that we can.

          We can’t afford to only work with those countries that measure up to the highest moral and reliability standards, because there aren’t any.
          We have to work with the countries that actually exist.

          • Yes, you are right on several points, but that was when we were dependant on them for their massive oil reserves. We are now energy independent on the North American continent, and if we could reign in Venezuela and Latin America back into the Monroe Doctrine, then we could effectively control the bulk of the global oil reserves for the very long term future.

            I say let Saudi Arabia and Iran have a go at each other, and let them destroy each other, since that is what been happening the last 1400 years. That would solve a lot of problems in one fell swoop and save us or Israel of having to get too involved. I feel for all the hunan misery that would entail on the innocents, but the alternative might be worse if we let this fester for another 10 years and it becomes a global affair, centred over the Middle East. And by then China will be in a much stronger position militarily than they already are. They reportedly already have a 200 million military reserve. And who knows what mischief Russia will get up to with more time? What if Putin gets dementia and starts acting very irrationally. The time for action is now, and not let this fester, but we don’t need to do the fighting…they are all itching to go to war. Let them, otherwise it will be just worse down the road.

            One thing is perfectly clear, is that now, today and this week, is the time for international leadership. It is Time for President Donald J. Trump to step and supply maximum leadership in this time of crisis. That will seal the deal for us for at least the next 4 years and we will at least have some time to sort out this climate scam and the socialist Marxist agenda that is trying to take root here.

          • We haven’t been letting Saudi Arabia and Iran go at each other?
            Regardless, do you really think the world would be better off if Iran wins this war and gets it’s hands on the Saudi oil fields?

            As bad as the Saudi’s are, Iran is 100 times worse.

          • They are both birds of the same feather, (at least religiously but on either end of the spectrum) and each has a different type of terrorism, although the Persians are a more sophisticated people than the House of Saud. The Persian people that is, not the Iranian Regime as compared to the tribalistic desert dwellers known as the Bedouin. Most of the Persians are a very smart people, as compared to Saudi’s who haven’t ever actually accomplished much, other than what their oil wealth did for them. That is the problem with tribalism.

            Probably a much better outcome, especially for the innocents, is regime change in both countries. That is fundamentally the solution for both states, since both regimes practise a blood thirsty form of Islam. That is what is wrong with both, but unfortunately it probably does wind up in war which will drag the whole world down.

  5. Off subject a little bit the discussion about seasonality of these diseases keeps coming up with out much of an understanding why. I wonder if it’s pollen, the huge increase in air born particles and surface coverage would most certainly have an affect on a virus. Just food for thought.

    • During the winter, people spend a lot more time indoors. Add to that the damage that really cold air can do to lungs if you don’t prepare yourself properly.

      • Air borne viruses also don’t like heat and humidity. Heat denatures their proteins and humidity causes nucleation of aerosols so they drop out. Increased sunshine boosts moods and immunity of people for a variety of reasons, except not for this damn time change we must endure. Increased UV and ozone are disinfecting.

        Pollen and appearance of other particles, etc., I haven’t seen any mention of that previously. Interesting thought. I’ve heard that people with allergies tend to have lower rates of cancer due to immune system activation. All of these things are difficult to flesh out.

      • I have heard the ‘people stay inside more in winter’ rationale for decades. It was believable when we were a nation of farmers, tending to the fields except in winters, but it simply does not hold up, today. Office workers regularly stay inside for eight hours at work, followed by about twelve hours at home, all year. Being outside in the winter or summer is a rare luxury for many.

        In the South, there are just as many nice days in the winter as there are in the summer. You don’t go outside much when the temperature exceeds 90 F. Air conditioning brought everyone inside.

        Nevertheless, the cold and flu season is the winter. I would venture to guess that low humidity in winter dries out nasal passages, compromising a human’s first defense against viruses.

        Regardless, great numbers of people stay indoors year round, but a ‘summer flu’ is very rare.

    • It could be as simple as vitamin D deficiencies due to less sunlight exposure in the winter months. Vitamin D is essential to a well functioning immune system. Chinese (in China) are normally deficient in vitamin D (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4554140), and the winter months exacerbate that condition. I have read that people living above latitude 30N don’t get enough vitamin D from sunlight in the winter months, and therefore must get it from diet or supplements.

  6. TRANSLATION: “[My personal] hopes for climate benefits from the slowdown [death and disease] are likely to be dashed quickly,”

    Nobody likes me, everybody hates me
    I think I’ll go eat worms!

    “[My pet] global warming concerns will be little more than an afterthought, dwarfed by a [rational] drive to prop up a stuttering world economy”

    Big fat juicy ones
    Eensie weensy squeensy ones
    See how they wiggle and squirm!

  7. … reject industrialisation and going back to being dirt poor …

    Most people here have no clue what it’s like to be dirt poor. That’s living memory for the Chinese middle class my age and a bit younger. Their children will have heard the stories, similar to me hearing the stories of the dirty thirties in the dust bowl.

    The Chinese middle class has no desire to relive their previous poverty.

    The spoiled rotten SJW Gretans have no clue about grinding poverty. (At least the hippie back-to-the-landers tried to live their ideal.

    • For the most part, young Chinese professionals are spoiled brats, having been the single focus of attention of parents and two sets of grand parents. Many are fat and easily disgruntled. In some regards, they’re not unlike a lot of young liberals here living in their parent’s basement.

      I’m of course generalizing and there are many exceptions, as there is an entrepreneurial spirit alive in China and here. We may near peak lazy though.

  8. Best possible stimulus for Australia would be to make the superannuation levy optional for the next year, or more. This would reduce the income tax rate from approx 49% to about 32% and on average dd $5000 to most peoples annual income.
    Many will spend it, some will pay off their credit card bills – both good for Australia.

    No hit to the budget, in fact since the added income would now be liable to the standard rate of tax, the budget would benefit.

    What’s not to like?

  9. When I was a kid, my grandmother told me about the great “Spanish Flu” epidemic of 1918-1919. She had three young boys ranging in age from 5 to 11. They left the boys with the hired hand and she and my grandad went to different homes to nurse sick relatives.

    All her family survived – nobody go the influenza. She raised hens and candled the eggs for sale – everyone helped out and they probably acquired natural immunity to avian flus.

    The Spanish Flu was gone after ~2 years. My guess is ~everyone on the planet acquired natural immunity by then.

    Regarding the corona virus – my bet is it will be gone in a few years as ~everyone acquires natural immunity.

    Wash your hands and don’t touch your face.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm

    HISTORY OF 1918 FLU PANDEMIC

    The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918.
    It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

    While the 1918 H1N1 virus has been synthesized and evaluated, the properties that made it so devastating are not well understood. With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.

    • Same here. My granddad told us that when he got it, he felt every single muscle in his body ached for a fortnight, and he thought that was it, but few months later he got the real thing and thought he wouldn’t survive it. It appears that virus moved through Balkans in three waves, but people who got through second wave were immune to the last one.

      • My father was the “firstborn” in his family only because his infected mother’s first child died in the epidemic. Women were lucky to survive childbirth in those circumstances.

        Rud Istvan recommended a book called “The Great Influenza”, by John Barry. It makes a convincing case that the 1918 flu was unique among almost all other known influenza outbreaks in the way that it involved people’s immune systems.

        Graphs that correlate mortality rates and age in influenza outbreaks always – always, that is, except for 1918-19 – start out with a peak representing infant deaths, then fall into a valley, then rise again, with a second peak representing people somewhere past sixty-five or so. With mortality on the vertical and age on the horizontal, a graph of the dead looked like a “U”.

        But 1918 was different. Infants did die then in large numbers, and so did the elderly. But in 1918 the great spike came in the middle. In 1918 an age graph of the dead would look like a “W”.

        Scientists are still trying to understand how the “Spanish” flu did this. One recent theory suggests childhood exposure to comparable strains actually created a weakness in the immune system that left people vulnerable to a later outbreak of the same virus.

        Another hypothesis is that the immune sytem itself became the killer in something called a “cytokine storm”.
        Age-Specific Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Unravelling the Mystery of High Young Adult Mortality

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/

        Pathologists of the day noted that the internal organs of the 1918 flu victims were all affected, not just the lungs. Barry seems to conclude that a mutation of the 1918 virus learned how to take over a patient’s immune system, and so become the agent of death of the host. In this scenario, the strongest immune systems become the most effective killers.

    • 20 – 40 sounds like the ages of those who were sent to war. Can’t help but wonder if battlefield conditions made young men extra vulnerable.

      • Armies and war industries caused many people to live very close together. The ‘social distance’ was low and therefore contamination in the army/working groups was very high. Social distancing is what diminishes the spread of a virus.

        • If that was the only thing involved, then the disease would have dissipated when the war did.

    • Don’t forget to include aspirin poisoning and possible misdiagnosed TB in Spanish flu mortality. It’s funny how iatrogenic causes of death – which are unofficially, but credibly per JAMA (1999) and John Hopkins (2016) studies, the number 3 cause of death in the US (the #1 cause of death due to those studies’ limited scope, IMO) – always seems to be ignored in Spanish flu mortality.

      • There is no vaccine that can protect against all strains of influenza. Which is not evidence that the existing vaccines don’t provide any protection.

    • I have read that the Spanish Flu of 1918 was misnamed. That one, too, came out of China as have many of the others.
      Maybe the Chinese should stop eating bats and other wild animals, though, it’s reported COVID did not come from that food market in Wuhan.
      I am still not ruling out it was an accidental release from one of the bio-warfare labs in Wuhan. It wouldn’t be the first time a flu virus got out of one of China’s labs so, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility. Anyway, in the First World, COVID is no more, and is probably less deadly than our normal flu. This panic is ridiculous and is likely to kill more people than the virus itself.

      • Do you have any evidence that the Spanish Flu came from China? Nobody else is making such a claim.

    • “The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this [Spanish Flu] pandemic.”

      My mother, who was trained as a nurse in that time frame, told us that the mortality was highest among those who thought their youth and vigor would let them remain active after being infected. Some got away with it for a while, even seemed to be recovering, then died quickly.

  10. The final gasps of the Climate Crusades ……need a lot of media expose to hasten their demise.

    • John,
      This is all I saw in your link.

      “$190,000 for damages arising from defendants’ use of corrosive substances which stained and damaged plaintiff’s scaffolding.”

      Where do you find what you posted?

  11. Political correctness – inaction, SJW beggar-thyself ‘diversity’, open borders in Europe, an unquenchable admiration for the Chinese political model, and the destruction of wealth by red-green idiocy is a perfect storm for wiping out Western Civilization with some global disease.

    Fortunately, the US was pulled out of this brain-pickling infusion by Donald Trump and with his bold strides of common sense he was a model of possibilities thought to have been long gone. A number of other countries’ voters wanted some of that and the EU knows its days are numbered, evidenced by the false bravado and chicken-with-head-cut-off gymnastics.

    That will be that for the néomarxiste NWO. The silly self immolation of Canada, Australia and New Zealand, who always have had an inferiority complex vis à vis Europe, will simply fold up with a whimper. The rest of the world is okay and busy embarking on a final push to prosperity.

    Moreover, a number of small countries that didn’t know what to do about foreign visitors from countries affected by the virus, like Dominican Republic (and latterally the whole Caribbean), followed the example of the US and Japan and blocked landing of cruise ships and aircraft from a number of countries. Canada, being choreographed by a drama teacher from a last chance university, has absolutely no serious plan for the virus emergency.

  12. On another ‘brushing’out’ subject: Russia and Saudi Arabia have teamed up to brush out USA’ fracking and shale oil industry at least for some months to come.
    Live Crude Oil Dollars price:
    us OIL USD 32.40500 -0.11 -0.34% Updated 13:46:30
    Day Low 27.34500
    Day High 33.67500

    • How exactly have Russia and Saudi Arabia teamed up?
      Saudi Arabia is the only one increasing production.

      • While Saudi Arabia is slightly increasing production, the bulk of their increased cheap immediate available supplies the next 2-3 months is coming out of their stored reserves. And anyone who does’t think that Russia and the House of Saudi couldn’t conspire to take on North America’s Shale and Oil Sands, then they would be a fool. What a perfect time to disrupt the economy while a virus is on the loose, and a panic has set in. And Russia is always up for a bit of mischief. Just think about it for 3 seconds.

  13. Unless my recall is failing me – I thought studies of temperature in China had found a huge UHI effect that was actually masking a fall in temperature.

  14. Oh the naivety to think China gives a damn about “climate goals”. The only goal they care about (other than their own needs) is to help western nations self destruct by enacting such asinine stupidity as the GND. I find it odd that the left were so concerned about Russian interference in the election but are completely silent about how much they are helping along the demise of the west by Green economic suicide.

    • Russians may have interfered, but what effect few hundreds K $ spent on the Facebook ads had, how many delegates they bought? … but we know that Mr. Bloomberg spent about 1000 times more and didn’t get anywhere. Whole thing is a big joke. In the UK Russians don’t interfere much with elections but employ what might be more productive methods, we are still waiting to see the government’s report on the matter.

  15. “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”
    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020

    • It’s so funny to see the WuFlu alarmists on twitter blowing up over this. And this bit of sanity is coming from a supposed germaphobe.

  16. AFP is known as “Agence Fausse Presse”. They are into “fact checking” which is codename of shaping the disinformation and interfering in elections.

    Some random examples of pathetic fake news:

    https://www.ojim.fr/lafp-et-la-verification-des-informations-beaucoup-de-propagande-et-peu-danalyse-sur-le-pacte-de-marrakech/

    https://www.europe1.fr/politique/selon-un-genealogiste-marine-le-pen-descend-de-mahomet-3318677

    and this grotesque waste of money:

    https://www.ojim.fr/arbre-aux-herons-fake-news-quand-lafp-arrange-les-affaires-des-socialistes-nantais-et-de-larbre-aux-herons/

  17. Alarmists worry themselves into a delirium over minutiae like minuscule temperature and sea level increases that have no “solutions” while ignoring major problems that can be mitigated with modest effort, like malnutrition, pollution, and the host of ills that come from lack of access to clean water and electricity.

  18. if this wakes up a few govts to NOT be supporting pretty much one nation being a sole or close to it supplier…then thats a good thing. and maybe lives wasted in”tourism/hostility” industries could be spent more productively making something? rather than ephemera

  19. Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that’s higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.
    https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

    Averaged out over a year, that gives us a range of 797 to 1,770 deaths daily. Have that many people died from the Covid-19 Coronavirus since the outbreak began? Let’s all step back from the hysteria, take some deep relaxing breaths and put that in perspective.

  20. Yeah, how about that? Do you think it’s possible the hype is because of the media being out to get Trump? Have you heard of anti-Trumpers wanting to turn this outbreak into Trump’s Katrina? Some people would rather see the economy in tatters than Trump as POTUS.

  21. Would the moderator of this thread kindly check recent post by moi? Or does another one bite the dust?

      • I haven’t clicked on their “cookies policy window that keeps popping up. Or maybe it’s one of my acidy comments got me in trouble. I have to speculate. Some authors maybe don’t check their mail.

  22. Annually global flu deaths are estimated to be between 250,000 and 646,000.

    At the low-end, that averages out to 685 flu deaths daily. On the high-end, that is 1,770 die from flu each day.

    We haven’t seen 1,770 die from the Corona virus in the months since the outbreak began. Can we all back away from the hype and hysteria and just put these facts in perspective?

    BTW – The one upside of the panic is it’s a great time to buy stocks.

    • Jeffery P

      After avoiding reading anything about corona, I have been for a few hours, and a lot of people will be rich after this virus is stopped, especially the creators of the vaccine..

      From bill gates to uk start up companies, countless companies are fighting to find a cure/vaccine so they can cash in.

      Wash your hands and don’t touch anybody and you will be ok is the constant thing I am reading, also its the elderly and ill people who are dying, Germanys first death is of a 89 year old. One death so far in 1000 cases.

      • The thing we don’t know are statistics… not even close since there is almost no way to test the general population who has some sort of cold/flu/virus. I think that the denominator for Covid 19 is way under counted since it’s not being counted among the general population. So mortality rate is probably very low.

        I had for the first time in my life, just recovered from getting fever and lung infection with no sinus or throat issue. The clinic said it was viral and not FLU virus. I had fever between 99.4 and 100.6 for 5 days, and then it ended. But they had no way of testing for Covid 19 which they agree, my symptoms directly point to. I am 55 years old.

        This too will pass and it’s being over hyped. Once it’s well spread, it will be noise in the greater scheme of things.

        I am and have self quarantined.

      • If you want to profit, starting buying stocks. Anything related to travel or tourism is way down. If the fundamentals were good before the Corona virus panic, the stock should rebound to where it was before.

      • You seem to be saying that medical companies shouldn’t be allowed to profit from their work?

        Lots of companies are researching a vaccine. The first one to develop and market a vaccine will make a lot of money. The others who get to market later will make a lot less, some may not even make back their investment.

        The chance to make a lot of money is what motivates companies to risk the investment needed to create medicines.

        • Yes, and might I add, one way to benefit from innovation in a communist country is to steal IP and undercut the market. That thwarts innovation which is antithetical. Profit has shown to be a great and fair motivator.

  23. Repost:

    My father was the “firstborn” in his family only because his infected mother’s first child died in the epidemic. Women were lucky to survive childbirth in those circumstances.

    Rud Istvan recommended a book called “The Great Influenza”, by John Barry. It makes a convincing case that the 1918 flu was unique among almost all other known influenza outbreaks in the way that it involved people’s immune systems.

    Graphs that correlate mortality rates and age in influenza outbreaks always – always, that is, except for 1918-19 – start out with a peak representing infant deaths, then fall into a valley, then rise again, with a second peak representing people somewhere past sixty-five or so. With mortality on the vertical and age on the horizontal, a graph of the dead looked like a “U”.

    But 1918 was different. Infants did die then in large numbers, and so did the elderly. But in 1918 the great spike came in the middle. In 1918 an age graph of the dead would look like a “W”.

    Scientists are still trying to understand how the “Spanish” flu did this. One recent theory suggests childhood exposure to comparable strains actually created a weakness in the immune system that left people vulnerable to a later outbreak of the same virus.

    Another hypothesis is that the immune sytem itself became the killer in something called a “cytokine storm”.

    Age-Specific Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Unravelling the Mystery of High Young Adult Mortality

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/

    Pathologists of the day noted that the internal organs of the 1918 flu victims were all affected, not just the lungs. Barry seems to conclude that a mutation of the 1918 virus learned how to take over a patient’s immune system, and so become the agent of death of the host. In this scenario, the strongest immune systems become the most effective killers.

  24. “New York state announced it will produce 100,000 gallons of hand sanitizer for schools, prisons, transportation systems and other government agencies. The supply will be provided, however, by the labor of the state’s incarcerated.
    …. The sanitizers will contain 75% alcohol as opposed to the average 60% in those more commercially available.”
    With all that alcohol around the place there might be a rush of New Yorkers to get incarcerated.

  25. “In the four weeks up to March 1, China’s discharge of CO2 fell 200 million tonnes…”

    In the grand scheme of things, that’s nothing. The atmosphere contains 3.2 trillion tons of CO2 (at 400 ppm). But it’s the equivalent of 16% of all of the automotive CO2 emissions of the United States for an entire year, so in terms of our “green economy” goals, it’s a staggering amount.

    I wonder if the forestalled warming (if there is any) could even be detected?

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