What Can You See, Indicating Sea Levels are Rising?

Reposted from Jennifer Marohasy’s Blog

December 28, 2019 By jennifer 3

Many Australians are fearful of catastrophic human-caused climate change because this is what the state-sponsored propaganda on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (the ABC) tells us.

In Australia, we mostly live near the sea. All along our coastline there is evidence of sea level fall, yes fall.*

Where is the evidence for rising sea levels?

Will you see how much sea levels have risen when you watch the fireworks over the Opera House in Sydney Harbour this New Year’s Eve — or will you see evidence of sea level fall?

It is that time of year when family and friends visit me at the beach. My niece told me just before Christmas that she had read so many of the comments at the YouTube thread following my first short film ‘Beige Reef’. She was surprised at how many comments there were — an awful lot she commented.

When I asked her what she thought of the film, she told me that she had not actually watched the film.

At that morning tea, under a shelter at Coolum Beach, none of my nieces or nephews or older brother could admit to having watched the film.

It is all of 12 minutes long.

This first film involved me wading into, and diving below, waters that my sister-in-law some weeks earlier had indicated put me at risk of a shark attack. But still she has not actually watched the film.

I know that there is fear within the varies communities within which I exist, of at least three things: sharks, catastrophic human-caused global warming — and that I could lead some of them down the path of global warming scepticism and from this they could end-up pariahs.

I diverge.

The best evidence is that global sea level has fallen by at least 2 metres since the the Holocene high stand about 4,000 BC; that is about 6,0000 years ago, a time known as the Minoan warm period.

The evidence in rocks and cliff faces all along the Australian east coast is that sea level was about 1m higher in the Roman warm period (year 0), and about 0.5m higher in the Medieval warm period (1,000 AD).

Conversely, it is believed the sea level was lower in the cold periods of 500 AD (Dark Ages) and the Little Ice Age (1,650 AD), maybe both 0.2 — 0.5 metres below today’s level. This last low sea level is particularly important, because it from this base sea levels are perhaps still rising back to average Holocene levels. But are they really?

When I go kayaking, and walk along the sea shore, and send my drone Skido up into the sky and look down and take pictures of things like marine potholes that feature at the top of this blog post: I see evidence for a sea shore that is receding.

The sea begins at the land’s edge. Where the sea begins is the ‘sea level’.

When I stand beside the circular pothole that you can see in the centre of the picture accompanying this blog post (… scroll to the very top).

I’m standing on a wave-cut platform of sandstone bedrock with rectangular fractures, and red iron oxide colouring.

Potholes are formed by the relentless grinding of harder rocks — perhaps granite— caught in a depression in this softer sandstone. Pounding surf causes the harder rocks to swirl — round and round — grinding down.

The grinding that created these potholes could only have happened when sea levels were higher, when this platform was between the high and low tide marks.

I took the picture on a highest tide this last year, in 2019. A year that is nearly over.

Sea levels must have been higher in the past. Because even on the highest tides this last year, the waves never reached this far?

The ABC may be concerned about rising sea levels, but where is your evidence for it? Are you brave enough, do you care enough, can you find the time enough, to think through some of these issues this next year: in 2020?

We are all entitled to our own opinions, but not our own facts.


I photographed this cliff face just to the north-west of the pot holes, which is just to the north-west of my favourite beach in Noosa National Park, so near where I live. What can you see in this landscape? Is there a wave cut platform, and what might have created it? Have you seen similar along other sections of sea shore?


* This is intended as the first of a series of blog posts on sea level change.

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High Treason
December 27, 2019 10:15 pm

The only thing we need to fear is catastrophic propaganda. The shrillness of the rhetoric will escalate as the narrative falls apart and those that are scamming us get ever more fearful that the People are waking up. They know how angry we will be when we find out we had been fed lies upon lies for decades.

Reply to  High Treason
December 28, 2019 12:50 am

That is what Extinction Rebellion is all about. The message on climate action from rational, moderate scientists does not suit the anti-Capitalist, anti-Western agenda of the Marxists so they are just making it up themselves.

Reply to  DocBud
December 28, 2019 3:31 am

Friedrich Engels, one of the founders of Classical Marxism, would today be a «sceptical» and a severe critic of the false (Neo Malthusian) narrative of this colossal hoax of «global warming» (by whatever other name). It is just a «red herring» set up by «leftist» (and opportunistic) politicians (mainly in the UK and the USA), trying to distract working people’s attention, while they to carve a bigger «slice of the pie», for themselves.

Reply to  DocBud
December 28, 2019 4:39 am

ER is funded by. let’s call it, neo-capitalist, or post-capitalist, interests. Don’t kid yourself that climate action is limited to marxists.

Reply to  icisil
December 28, 2019 6:16 am

Definitely, the fight is by and against the prolekult.

Bill P.
Reply to  High Treason
December 28, 2019 5:55 am

How dare you!

Reply to  High Treason
December 28, 2019 9:26 am

Maybe bears repeating; There’s a cay near Marathon where Henry Flagler quarried fossilized coral for road bed. (really cool, they’ve been restoring some of the equipment) Sea level was estimated about 25 meters higher when the coral was growing. Take that! city of Miami Beach whiners.

December 27, 2019 10:20 pm

appears that Holocene sea level rise flattened out about 5000 years ago


And that Eemian (the prior interglacial) sea level rise was more violent and destructive than Holocene sea level rise without the help of an industrial economy.

Reply to  Chaamjamal
December 28, 2019 10:36 pm

why did the last glaciation end? What melted the ice?

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  ironbrian
December 29, 2019 1:29 pm

1) 20,000 to 17,000 years the last “glacial advance” transitioned;
2) Rain.

Zig Zag Wanderer
December 27, 2019 10:24 pm

I know that there is fear within the varies communities within which I exist, of at least three things: sharks, catastrophic human-caused global warming — and that I could lead some of them down the path of global warming scepticism and from this they could end-up pariahs.

Anybody afraid of sharks should buy lottery tickets. You have far more chance of winning the lottery than being attacked by a shark.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
December 27, 2019 11:00 pm

Especially on land.

Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 27, 2019 11:30 pm

Well said.
I have a deal with the sharks.
I don’t go into the ocean and they don’t come onto the land.

Reply to  Herbert
December 28, 2019 2:04 am


Beware Sharknado!

It’s as true a story as Global Warming. 🙂

Reply to  Herbert
December 28, 2019 4:37 am

Haha. I prefer to say “Sharks don’t come into my kitchen and I don’t go into theirs.”

David A
Reply to  MPennery
December 29, 2019 8:46 am

Shark can be tasty. Eat the shark before it eats you.

Reply to  Herbert
December 28, 2019 12:33 pm

Here in Australia Sharks are walking on land and they are feeding on the poor, deprived and vulnerable, there called “LOAN SHARKS ” ( men in grey suits) The capitalist Morrison liberal government was going to do something if elected but nothing yet. I did hear on the news last night that they are going to look into it in 2020 , Time will tell if it’s only noise, politicians are good at flapping their gums but not so good at doing.

Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 28, 2019 1:23 am

Well, unless they’re really hungry then they can be up to 10 miles inland. ( Les Patterson, Aus Minister of Culture aka. Barry Humphries )

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  Keitho
December 28, 2019 6:43 am

Actually they have been known to swim over 1,000 miles inland. Bulls have been caught as far inland as Illinois and their teeth have been found in Minnesota.

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
December 28, 2019 6:48 am

Bull sharks will swim into rivers and estuaries that are brackish, so you might see one many miles (kilometers) inland where you wouldn’t expect one to be.. and they will eat you given the chance.

Bob boder
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
December 28, 2019 7:09 am

Cows kill more people every year than sharks do.

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
December 28, 2019 9:35 am

“Anybody afraid of sharks should buy lottery tickets. You have far more chance of winning the lottery than being attacked by a shark.”

…and only one encounter with a large very aggressive shark to change your mind

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
December 28, 2019 10:28 am

Actually, the odds of winning Mega Millions or Powerball are about 1 in 300 mil each. The odds of being killed by a shark in the US for are 1 in 264 mil. Odds of being attacked are 1 in 11.5 million. So you have it backwards.

People across the US are constantly playing and dreaming of winning the lottery as it is, even those who know how remote their chances of winning are. Same certainly applies to the opposite side of the spectrum and shark attacks. No matter how remote the odds are, it is still a fear.

And as described by Kirk Douglas’ character in Stanley Kubrick’s “Paths of Glory,” it is not necessarily a fear of dying that we have but a fear of HOW we will die. Beating eaten or partially-eaten alive is about as terrifying as it gets.

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
December 28, 2019 1:35 pm

Statistical safety is all very nice unless you are the one. Anyone who has participated in risk activities knows not to draw any comfort from high level stats.

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
January 7, 2020 7:02 pm

“Anybody afraid of sharks should buy lottery tickets. You have far more chance of winning the lottery than being attacked by a shark.”

Guess there’s more lottery tickets sold dayly than sharks visit Australia.

How many lottery tickets are sold each year in the US?

Approximately 370 million lottery tickets were sold between Saturday and Tuesday before the Mega Millions drawing, according to a lottery official.

The U.S. generated nearly $73 billion in lottery sales in 2016 and CNN reports that in 2017, U.S. residents spent about $73.5 billion on tickets.


December 27, 2019 10:47 pm

The sea level at Sydney Harbour, Fort Denison, has gone up 50-mm since 1886. In the interim, it has gone up and down many times. There is no credible danger to the Harbourside Property Market in any foreseeable future. The continual ABC propaganda is a greater risk to the Sydney Property Market.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
December 28, 2019 12:50 am

Check out SLR in ports like Portsmouth in the UK, since the 1550’s. No significant SLR.

Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 28, 2019 4:01 am

I swam in the sea at the Eastney end of Southsea beach in the forties after it had been cleared of second world war defences.
I walked the beach again this year at Easter, some seventy odd years later.
The same patch of sand where we as children sat amongst the heavy gravel was uncovered at low tide and occupied by children from another generation, squealing and laughing as they ran sore toed across the stones and on into the sea.
The simple pleasures of a bygone age are still there for those who look for them, and Greta, whose parents stole her childhood, can still find them.

Reply to  roger
December 28, 2019 6:27 am

Good comment. The sophisticated activists, e.g., XR are destructive perhaps for not experiencing such simple pleasures. As James Lovelock says, they are silly buggers.

spangled drongo
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
December 28, 2019 1:51 am

And as I’ve said many times, Nicholas, the BoM’s actual records show current Mean Sea Level there to be over 4 inches [113mm] LOWER than their first recording 105 years ago:


And this is where the world’s oceans are at their widest.

Reply to  spangled drongo
December 28, 2019 7:27 am

I don’t see that in the data.
Can you explain the data, or graph it..?


spangled drongo
Reply to  ralfellis
December 28, 2019 12:02 pm

As per the table:

The first recording in May 1914 MSL 1.111 metres.

The last recording in Nov. 2019 MSL 0.998 metres.

113 mm lower.

James Campbell
Reply to  spangled drongo
December 30, 2019 1:55 am

Hi Drongo,

If you only measure the tide 10 times in a month (the May 1914 measures), then who know what average figure you will get. The BOM data you refer too shows a 9.5cm rise (decade on decade) between 1914-1923 and 2010-2019. Happy to show you how to do it, no special modelling is required, you simply average it.

Reply to  spangled drongo
January 1, 2020 1:33 am

James, can’t you see that spangled drongo wrote “than their first recording”, so comparing most recent to earliest.

Sure, we can cherry pick intervals to show whatever you wish but if we use May 1914 vs May 2019 to eliminate seasonal variation we see 1.111 vs 1.083 MSL metres – essentially, no change.

I will agree that the 113mm decrease from oldest to newest measurement could be considered as much a case of cherry picking data as the CAGW sea level rise claims but that is the point I think spangled drongo is trying to make

Reply to  spangled drongo
December 28, 2019 8:59 am

Clearly, this will be adjusted to reconcile the data with theory.

Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
December 28, 2019 9:02 am

Less than 2 inches in 134 years. Nothing to fear but fear itself.

Reply to  chemman
December 28, 2019 10:09 am

Well, also wet shoes if you were standing @ the waterline for that long…

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
January 7, 2020 7:21 pm

Wellington searched for a Harbour in New Zealand. For Wellington searching for a Harbour meant finding a river to the coast. He didn’t find a river – but a harbour.


The river bed today lies beneath sea level, it was formed by glacier meltwater at the begin of the last interstadial. And the glaciers static rebound weren’t in favour of Wellington.


December 27, 2019 10:53 pm

The ABC has just put out an article that is infuriating, more lies in regards to the Great Barrier Reef. The article is called:

“Coral in the Gulf of Aqaba is thriving despite rising sea temperatures and scientists want to know why.”

By Middle East correspondent Eric Tlozek and Fourad AbuGosh in the Gulf of Aqaba and Lexy Hamilton-smith.

I’m sorry but I don’t know how to insert a link, but I think it’s worth looking up. This article totally refutes Jennifer’s research, usual ABC propaganda.

Reply to  Megs
December 28, 2019 1:19 am

I queried the article and put a link to the JM video.

Moderately Cross of East Angliam
Reply to  Megs
December 28, 2019 1:44 am

The BBC has that beat – yesterday they were scaring everyone on their main news bulletins that half the world’s coral reefs were already dead and within thirty years the rest would die.
Utterly absurd nonsense but relentlessly shovelled out as fact.

Reply to  Moderately Cross of East Angliam
December 28, 2019 4:21 am

I clearly remember the Crown of Thorns starfish scare from the 1970’s which supposedly spelled doom for the GBR.

Reply to  Graemethecat
December 28, 2019 4:52 am

Graeme, the crown of thorn starfish are still a problem, the population explodes from time to time. Cyclones also happen periodically. Though these can cause significant damage, and not accross the entire reef, it does in time recover. As you rightly point out, the media imply that the only damage is from increased temperatures and runoff from agriculture. Heat stress can occur, but not accross the entire reef which is some two thousand kilometers long. The corals have a symbiotic relationship with algae and the corals that grow near the surface can be exposed during extremely low tides. If these corals are exposed to high temperatures then the algae can die, when this happens the corals expelled the algae. Even this does not mean certain death of the corals. I believe they can survive up three months during which time they will take up fresh stores of algae.

The Great Barrier Reef is not in imminent danger and there are certainly not large areas of bleaching. Jennifer will testify to that, if you haven’t already seen it watch her recent video.

Reply to  Moderately Cross of East Angliam
December 28, 2019 6:12 pm

I heard that drivel too in the middle of the night on BBC WS!

It made me so angry I woke up (subliminal stuff), and turned that sh..t off.
There is nothing more annoying on the subsidised Bollox Broadcaster Co than hearing the same spurious crap spouted more than twice a day, like some stuck record.

Not only is it disgustingly dishonest stuff, but a couple of nights ago they interviewed some jerk from Northern Finland who is a reindeer herder/fisherman who immediately claimed as a raw Moose liver eater to be a “climate scientist” and is determined to stop peat burning as a fuel, despite it meaning lots of people would die of cold.

Reply to  Megs
December 28, 2019 3:00 am

Regarding Megs’ second sentence, the BBC is running a story that half the coral reefs in the world are dying due to climate change.
Does anyone know where they got that number from?

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Oldseadog
December 28, 2019 4:29 am

I saw that item, no source given.

Also local BBC TV News (East Midlands) A reporter described a Lithium Ion battery as a generator. The manufacturer did as well, saying generated power for 12 hours and recharge took 4. Neglected to mention diesel generators replaced by this battery would run for weeks with occasional refuelling

Reply to  Oldseadog
December 28, 2019 5:05 am

Oldseadog, the BBC reference was from Moderately Cross of East Angliam, maybe they can answer your question.

Reply to  Megs
December 28, 2019 4:52 am

I got a laugh from their running some crud saying corals 30metres down were suffering climate change too..
and no one ever questions them
or can get a right of response

Reply to  Megs
December 28, 2019 5:38 am

Megs said, “I’m sorry but I don’t know how to insert a link…”

Megs, copy the webpage address from the Address/Search Bar on your browser, and paste it into your comment, like:


Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 28, 2019 9:10 am

In more detail, on a Windows PC, highlight the webpage address, right click your mouse and select “copy.”

In your post, left click where you want to insert the webpage link and click “paste.” Voila.

With a Mac, I believe its highlight the link, press control and click the mouse at the same time and select copy. Then about the same, place the cursor where it is intended to go, control + mouse click and paste.

Here’s a link: https://www.wikihow.com/Copy-and-Paste-a-Link

Reply to  Scissor
December 28, 2019 12:30 pm

Thanks Scissor, I’ll cut and paste the cut and paste, on my tablet. 🙂

Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 28, 2019 12:22 pm

Thanks Bob!

December 27, 2019 11:23 pm

We have a high tide gauge in Sydney harbour close to where I grew up. We would watch the highest tides of the year and mark them because we could jump off a platform when the tide was high. I went down there again the other day, 45 years after I first swam there as a kid. The highest tides of the year haven’t changed 1cm from when I was a kid in 1975, which is consistent with offical record for Sydney harbour.

Steven Mosher
December 27, 2019 11:39 pm

Oh jesus.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 28, 2019 12:16 am

Oh Steven,

Her name is Jennifer, not Jesus. Please try to contain your emotions.
You might actually learn something new.

Stewart Pid
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
December 28, 2019 7:56 am

Mosher learn something???? Joel are u knew here?

Reply to  Stewart Pid
December 28, 2019 9:15 am

He still can’t quite figure out capitalization but he randomly uses periods correctly. It’s the thinking logically part (and basic grammar) that trips him up most every time.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 28, 2019 1:00 am

Hey at least she has a science degree even if it is in Botany and Entomology, that probably counts as qualified in Climate Science, unlike our stupid English Grad illiterate.

Reply to  LdB
December 28, 2019 2:07 am


Thank you, saved me the trouble.

Reply to  LdB
December 28, 2019 4:59 am

English grads learn to code and imagine they’re climate scientists.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 28, 2019 1:47 am


Jesus is name. You should use J, not j.

Truth could be sometimes very frustrating when it´s against your climate religion, but nonetheless, you should try to behave like a big boy. It won´t hurt you.

Rich Davis
Reply to  F1nn
December 28, 2019 10:12 am

As a rule, mosh never capitalizes. He’s also very eclectic and creative with spelling, grammar, and punctuation. Not to mention logic.

Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 28, 2019 2:16 am

“Oh jesus – Steven Mosher”

Well, it is said that he did ‘walk on the sea’ – a mistranslation of the Greek for lake – and not on water; also a common misreading. However, the lake was traditionally known as a sea despite being freshwater and as it happens, it is also the lowest freshwater lake on Earth.*

If you’re a doubter, I’d suggest he may actually have been walking on a shallow wave cut platform, formed by earlier crustal events! 😉

*At 209 meters below sea level.

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Scott W Bennett
December 28, 2019 3:23 am

Scott, if one looks at the context it is not as you portray it. In some Greek Gospel passages we read of Galilee being called a “sea” (θάλασσα) and in others a “lake” (λίμνη). The story of Jesus walking on the sea in Matthew 14:26-29 is not a mistranslation of the Greek (θάλασσα). If one looks closer, when Jesus called Peter, Peter was walking towards him on the “water” (ὕδατα) before he began to sink. The word for “sea,” two thousand years ago, is the same word as used today. In 1972 Malcolm Muggeridge published “Paul, Envoy Extraordinary” with some stunning photographs including of the Sea of Galilee and commented on the terrible storms on this small sea.

Reply to  Michael in Dublin
December 28, 2019 6:07 pm

==> Michael in Dublin

My comment was a little bit “tongue in cheek.”

But putting lake/sea aside, according to the stories, it is only Matthew who walks upon the “waters” and the word hydata* (ὕδατα) – water – is used twice in relation to him rather than sea/lake thalassan and thalassēs (θάλασσαν and θαλάσσης) in the case of Jesus.

Reply to  Scott W Bennett
December 28, 2019 7:46 pm

Whoops! I meant Peter walks on water – only in Matthew (14:28) – not in the other gospel versions!

Reply to  Scott W Bennett
December 28, 2019 3:58 am

He was walking on a pier which was reserved for the priesthood, not allowed to fishermen. In other words, he was claiming to be part of the priesthood. Many of the miracles in the Bible were the result of similar double-meanings.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Hivemind
December 28, 2019 7:01 am

I’d suggest he may actually have been walking on a shallow wave cut platform, formed by earlier crustal events! 😉

NAH, he had been there before and knew where the rocks were.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
December 28, 2019 12:24 pm

Or, someone just made it up.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
December 28, 2019 1:25 pm

Right on, Jeff Alberts, there were no newspaper reporters or stenographers or scribes following Jesus around and writing down everything he said or did.

It t’was like a hundred and fifty years after the cited crucifixion that stories about Jesus was being written down.

Chris in Hervey Bay
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
December 29, 2019 3:27 am

Did He not learn to swim ??

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Hivemind
December 28, 2019 2:25 pm

The Gospel account was written within a generation of the events being described and various eyewitnesses were still living. There is no evidence in this narrative to support the claims you make nor any other written sources from the time to refute it. You do not have to believe the writer but you have no right to change the plain sense of the language. This does not allow for ambiguity or double-meanings. No reputable historian would treat a primary source this way and in the same way a scientist should not ignore carefully documented weather observations in a centuries old journal.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
December 29, 2019 3:47 am

The Gospel account was written within a generation of the events being described and various eyewitnesses were still living.

Michael in Dublin, ……. biblical histories and biblical historians disagree with your above claim.

Didn’t you know, …… Emperor Constantine was the “publisher” of the Christian Bible in 325 AD …… and he didn‘t profess to even being a Christian.

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
December 29, 2019 6:22 am

In response to Samuel C Cogar:
You state that biblical histories and biblical historians disagree with my claim and that Constantine “published” the Christian Bible in 325 AD.

Numerous fragments from copies of the original manuscripts of New Testament books date from the second and third centuries – before Constantine was born. A careful historian will not disregard this nor the comments of the writers on their genesis. With no written testimony to the contrary from the earliest years to refute the actual New Testament claims, I find it arrogant and intellectually dishonest for modern “biblical historians” to think they know better. Anyone, working with the actual texts and looking closely at their transmission, appreciates them as the only primary sources we have.

While this is a digression from the subject matter of sea levels, I see this as an analogy. We also need to weigh our sources and work with primary sources on the subject of climate change.

Reply to  Scott W Bennett
December 28, 2019 6:11 am

Drug consumption was also a common habit at the time of Jesus.

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  Steven Mosher
December 28, 2019 6:45 am

Yes we all know that climastrology is a religion but leave other religion’s messiahs out of this.

Kenneth C Mitchell
December 27, 2019 11:40 pm

You’re in Australia? In Sidney Harbor, there’s an old fortification on an island called Fort Denison. It was built in 1865. There are photos of the island, and you can see the water level – which hasn’t changed from then to now.

Sea Level Rise Since 1865: 0.0 cm.
Look at the photos!

December 28, 2019 12:04 am

You can’t paddle a canoe where Romans parked fleets at Ephesus, the Claudian invasion of England came ashore where the land is now dry for kilometres, Rome’s airport was its port (the wet bit). Drive past the site of Thermopylae and it is now a wide plain between sea and mountains, no chance of cramping a Persian horde there. Even Henry VIII’s coastal forts aren’t as coastal as they were.

It’s all very well to talk of siltation and altered flows…but surely a massive sea level rise wouldn’t be stopped by a bit of silt. We’d at least be able to wade where Julius Caesar anchored. Real sea level rise is a dribble (this time around) since the 1700s. Don’t like it? Get yourself an ice age.

Oh Julius.

Reply to  mosomoso
December 28, 2019 2:53 am

Harlech Castle built 1289, the west entrance was a Watergate, just where the road & rail cross in this picture –
Then we have Harlech Castle

the sea is now approx 1 kilometre away to the left & ~10m lower.
You can see the old shoreline to the right & top of picture behind the castle,
the railway station & road crossing sit on a wave cut platform.

This is a is a 2004 BBC (before they became CC ‘climate correct’) documentary about Harlech Castle
at around 6 mins he mentions sea level fall;
at 20 mins the watergate.

Reply to  saveenergy
December 28, 2019 4:39 am

Very interesting pic.

So many mainstream info outlets now go sheepish and evasive on the matter of old coastal sites and sea levels. It’s like Basil Fawlty reminding his staff not to mention the war in front of German guests.

In 1971 I hitched past Thermopylae and kept staring out to sea to find some kind of range with a pass, but it was all flat plain. Only much later did I realise I was driving through where the Gulf of Malia had been and that the armies had been huddled against the mountains on the other side to where I was looking. All very well to talk of land-use, siltation etc, but you’d reckon a major and global rise in sea levels would easily account for that.

Of course, there is no major and global rise, just that dribble we’re lucky to get post LIA. The geologically stable sites around Oz show it. As to why an illustration shows Harlech was closer to the sea even as late as the early 1600s, I guess there’s a fair bit to learn…and the climate Basils would rather we didn’t.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  mosomoso
December 28, 2019 4:01 am

I saw a tv program the other day discussing Rome in ancient times, and they showed where Rome’s ancient port is now above water and several miles inland from the sea. That would suggest the sea levels have fallen since that era in ancient Rome.

Sea level is such an uncertain measurement, ripe for manipulation, and just perfect for alarmists to distort.

Same thing with ocean “acidification”

Same thing with arctic melting.

Same thing with the entire human-caused climate change speculation.

Ambiguity is the name of the climate change game.

Reply to  mosomoso
December 28, 2019 6:30 am

Silt fills in depressions on my property all the time. There’s nothing like letting water sculpt the ground as it likes, thus saving me a bunch of work filling in shallow spots. But don’t think “bit of silt”; think flooding carrying massive amounts of silt that looses velocity when it hits calmer water and drops its load and fills in that former part of the water body.

John Miller
Reply to  mosomoso
December 28, 2019 12:19 pm

Given the African plate is crashing into Europe, isn’t the long-term sea level drop more due to seismic forces than the gradual cooling we have been seeing until recently?

December 28, 2019 12:12 am

We were in Westport WA USA a few years ago. Everyone was crying about beach erosion and rising seas. The condo we rented is a property where they are at risk of being condemned. At low tide, we observed tree trunks exposed at least 10’ below the high water mark. What does that tell us…🤔

John Tillman
Reply to  Brad
December 28, 2019 2:58 am

That the PNW is rising thanks to its ice sheet having melted starting about 20,000 years ago. Also that the Cascadia tectonic plate triple junction produced a Mag 9 earthquake over 300 years ago, causing subsidence. And that sea level was lower during the LIA.

Reply to  Brad
December 28, 2019 12:29 pm

Brad, it tells us that the Wa. coast is eroding. It’s been doing that for years. We were in Ocean Shores in the early 80s and it was washing away then, taking ocean front lots with it.

State of the Beach/State Reports/WA/Beach Erosion

…Erosion continues to be an issue in Westport, however. The City of Westport declared an emergency at Half Moon Bay and Westhaven State Park on October 14, 2003. They passed a resolution allowing the immediate construction of a seawall, which reads, in part:

“…is authorized to exercise powers vested under Section 1 of this resolution in the light of exigencies of an extreme emergency situation without regard to time-consuming procedures and formalities prescribed by law.”
…Indicator Type Information Status

…The southwest Washington ocean coast (~2.4 % of Washington’s marine shorelines), backed by dunes and a broad coastal plain, is largely accretional with pockets of erosion which cycle between times of accretion and times of erosion driven partly by El Niño climate variability, and/or complications caused by nearby bay mouth jetties. These beaches are fed by sediments from the Columbia River basin and distributed by the Columbia River plume north up the coast. In recent decades the rate of accretion has slowed largely due to impoundment of those Columbia Basin sediments behind dams throughout the basin, as well as other possible factors. An example of an area that is now experiencing substantial erosion is Cape Disappointment State Park. Beachside areas once targeted for campground construction have been removed from the planning process because of the erosion. Park managers have also decommissioned sewer ponds because of fears that the ocean might erode into them. Researchers at Oregon State University predict that by 2020, the shore areas for about six miles north of North Head may retreat between 100 and 300 meters.
…Washington’s inland marine waters of Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca (~81 % of marine shorelines) are largely backed by low banks and bluffs; accretionary landforms such as spits are rare and mostly small. The rocky shores of the San Juan Islands are stable. The bluffs and low banks are erosional, with episodic erosion incidents at any particular place occurring every few decades; long-term average erosion rates for the most part amount to only a few tenths of a foot per year. This erosion material is considered essential to maintaining the Puget Sound beaches. Episodic landsliding in this area is driven largely by soil saturation during especially wet winters, usually La Niña winters. Beaches in this area are fed largely by eroded materials from adjacent or nearby bluffs, with river-borne sediments playing a minor role in beach maintenance. Vertical land movement subsidence exacerbates sea level rise thus hastening the movement of landslide sediments through the drift cells and into deep water.

Erosion “hot spots” are located along the beaches in Southwest Washington. Erosion rates at Cape Shoalwater have been over 100 feet per year. Other critical erosion spots include Grays Harbor South Jetty, Ocean Shores (north of the Grays Harbor North Jetty), and Fort Canby State Park (now named Cape Disappointment)….
…The Cape Shoalwater and Fort Canby regions experienced mean erosion rates of 23.1 ft/year and 6.4 ft/year, respectively. Washaway Beach is famous for having vacation houses fall into the ocean. Erosion has been happening here for more than a century. A lighthouse that stood for nearly 80 years was among the first structural victims back in 1940. At times Washaway Beach has lost 100 feet a year….”

December 28, 2019 12:32 am

I wrote this article on sea levels in Roman Times in Britain some 8 years ago


Sea levels were up to half a metre higher back then than they are now. They dipped again in the pre Viking period then rose again in the MWP. The evidence is there for all to see who want to look.

I fear that social media is shaping views and many, like in Jennifer’s article, are more interested in comment amongst like minded people, than the article itself. A bit like our last General election when social media-mostly left wing-was convinced of a Labour win and our snowflakes were shocked when they realised their little world and the real world were different beasts


December 28, 2019 12:36 am

I just returned from a vacation to the beaches of far SW Myanmar. As I was laying on the beach it dawned on me that I was just a few miles from Bangladesh. And it occurred to me that Bangladesh is one of those places that the green zealots are always talking about being inundated by rapidly rising sea levels. So I ask the older locals who live and work on this beach if high tide on this beach seemed higher than when they were kids. Their comment was this beach never changes unless they experience a storm surge from a Typhoon. Nothing scientific about this observation but its my own piece of antidotal evidence from locals who have no reason to lie about what they see every day.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Marc
December 28, 2019 1:09 pm


You need an antidote for that anecdote.

Reply to  Marc
December 28, 2019 5:26 pm

Anecdotal because you didn’t pay them for the answer that you want.

December 28, 2019 12:50 am

In North America we have the problem of post-glacial rebound. At one place, the tide gauge can indicate a rising sea level and a hundred miles up the coast, the tide gauge can indicate a falling sea level. link When the Earth’s crust moves faster than the sea level changes …

As far as I can tell, that isn’t a problem in Australia.

December 28, 2019 12:56 am

Couldn’t this feature have been produced during a storm, where the water was much higher for a short period?

Reply to  Perfecto
December 28, 2019 3:11 am

A storm can throw boulders and sand way above high tide, but a wave-cut platform takes time to form.

Reply to  Perfecto
December 28, 2019 5:10 am

I think the assumption is being made that the water level was higher once due to the undercut. Maybe, but possibly what we’re seeing in the picture is erosion from collapse of unstable material above the level water erodes the base of the cliff, as evidenced by the rubble on the beach.

Loren Wilson
Reply to  icisil
December 28, 2019 11:55 am

Geologists agree with her interpretation of the feature. Some interesting work has been done in caves near the coast and looking at the stalactites. They form rings like trees and can be dated with some accuracy. These studies show much the same trend.

Clarky of Oz
December 28, 2019 1:05 am

A big kerfuffle down at Inverloch , Victoria Australia some months ago. Apparently a surf club building was in danger of being washed into the sea. Of course the media labelled it as sea level rise but erosion of coastal sand dunes is a more likely offender.

I can look up Australian seal level data for several Australian and Pacific locations on the BoM website but where can I find sea temperature data? Everyone in the media says it is rising but where is the data?

Reply to  Clarky of Oz
December 28, 2019 1:42 am

Type the following into your search-engine: “Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project”. Hourly Sea Level & temperature data, with some good monthly and yearly summaries.

Clarky of Oz
Reply to  Warren
December 28, 2019 4:08 am

Thank you.

Global Cooling
December 28, 2019 1:23 am

Good propaganda is a short meme repeated over and over again. Sheeple just read the heading, if even that. 12 minute video is way too long. If you really want to keep it so long, put your message to the first 15 seconds, 30 seconds maximum.

Write the transcipt of your video below, because reading is faster than watching a video.

Ron Long
December 28, 2019 1:23 am

It’s obvious Jennifer is smart enough to be an excellent observer, and brave enough (or committed to science enough?) to speak the truth. Great for Australia and the rest of us!

December 28, 2019 1:23 am

I think Harlech castle shows what JM is referring to. In 1380, when it was built, it was in the coast and could be resupplied by sea. There is at least one painting showing the water up the face of the escarpment. It is now a long way from the sea.

Reply to  Alex
December 30, 2019 9:26 am

That part of N Wales is where post glacial rebound is occurring.

December 28, 2019 1:44 am

Why does the Great Reef bloom?
comment image

December 28, 2019 2:25 am

Flying from London to Auckland New Zealand ia a plus minus 24 hours over water, storms, tides, gravity, all account for the 0.1mm a year increase in the rise sea levels! ( oh so happy I am that I was born an idiot ) ?

Roger Knights
December 28, 2019 2:35 am

These sea level variations in Australia in step with the Medieval Warm period etc. indicate historic warm and cold periods were global. Right? If so, this interpretation should be trumpeted.

December 28, 2019 2:47 am

“In the photo above, the line and arrow mark is a standard British Ordnance Survey Benchmark, 50 cm across, and is standing in the photo about 35 cm above the water level. Since the photo was deliberately taken at the time of mean or half-tide for that day, we see in this one photo the enigma that is the `Isle of the Dead’. Because, how can a benchmark struck at “zero point” or the “mean level of the sea”, as described so explicitly by Ross, now be 35 cm above the mean level today? Has the sea level fallen?”

John Tillman
December 28, 2019 3:06 am
December 28, 2019 3:17 am

Actually you can often just look at a map and see if the sea is rising or falling on a particular stretch of coast.

If a coast have long meandering and branched inlets and narrow sandy barrier islands offshore it is sinking (the inlets are called rias and are drowned river valleys)

If it is finely comminuted and ‘busy’, often with many small islets offshore it is rising.

Most of the US south and east coast is of the first type, the coast of Maine and most of Canada is the second type. In Europe the North Sea coast is the first type and most of Sandinavia the second.

December 28, 2019 3:45 am

I look at the local watershed, get photos as often as possible, and find that increased levels of precipitation result in higher than USUAL water levels in the lakes and rivers, as well as Lake Michigan.

Seems to me if you put increased precipitation together with local waterways, which flow toward a common exit, e.g., Mississippi River basin or whatever, you are going to have evidence of rising water levels. Whether or not it becomes permanent or is a variable depends on how it’s studied. Lots of snow to the north of where I live may mean flooding downrange where I am, come spring and summer. It will make the waders and swimmers happy. But in the end, it all flows out to the oceans.

Doug Huffman
Reply to  Sara
December 28, 2019 5:10 am

I live on an island in Lake Michigan. Our seawalls are being overtopped. The ferry company has added two feet to their seawall and still the apron is flooded by the swells coming up the channel when the wind is right. I live about 200 feet above lake level.

Reply to  Doug Huffman
December 28, 2019 6:25 am

High lake levels are similar to those in 1986. The Michigan legislature appropriated $6 million to mitigate some of the impact.

That is one big bluff you are on.😀 Must be great views.

Reply to  Doug Huffman
December 31, 2019 3:22 am

Are there locks on the outlet of Lake Michigan?

Reply to  Sara
December 28, 2019 6:04 am

I live WAY south of you and we’re getting the same thing down here. Lake Michigan has had higher than usual levels all year, which means heavier surf and pounding the lake shore on both sides of the lake, eroding the shore lines. The Army Corps of Engineers is working on protecting the shoreline, but those ancient dunes on both sides are slowly being eaten away.

Should be an interesting year in 2020.

John M
Reply to  Sara
December 28, 2019 7:29 am

Oh for the Good Ole Days, when “experts” assured us the Great Lakes were going to dry up.

You know, because of…

“Increasingly, scientists believe that climate change is driving the warming waters and setting up a new regime in the Great Lakes that may lead to lower lake levels and a permanently altered shoreline”


December 28, 2019 3:59 am

All over SE Asia, from the Philippines to Vietnam to Thailand, is evidence everywhere that sea levels were about 1-2 meters higher than present not that long ago, i.e. the Holocene High Stand. It is literally cut into the rock face abutting the ocean mostly everywhere there isn’t a beach. Just sail around southern Thailand and see the higher wave cut rock everywhere.

There would be some adjustment to the global sea surface from changing oceanic basins with massive isostatic rebound happening in the far northern continents the last ten thousand years after the North American and European ice sheets melted, displacing southern ocean waters with a bias upwards. Maybe some from Antarctica as well that partially counter balanced that. But that wouldn’t account for all of the recent increase the last 6000 years. Clearly, it was much warmer in the Holocene Optimum than had melted much more of the northern and souther ice caps, as well as the global mountainous glaciers. There was more water volume in the global ocean, but that is not the whole picture either.

The changing planetary Geoid from the change in the mass balance of the contentientcl ice sheets and underlying crust would also affect sea levels on a global level, but that would have localized sea levels very differently at different stages of the last de-glaciation. How long does it take for these things to settle out and appear as local sea level, from things that are not even related to water volumes but things like the gravitational geoid that can change the local sea level a half a world away? Everything changes everything.

Some of the up and down is also undoubtably rapid change with vertical earthquake activity. I have seen 9-10 km of beach raised up out of the ocean 1.5 meters high in 2-3 minutes in the 2013 earthquake in Bohol, Philippines. Little kids remember that one, once swimming in the ocean where now it is dry land but now an obvious sea floor and we all have pictures of the beach that is now a km away from the sea from just less than 7 years ago. Things can change in minutes locally in some places. That water was displaced elsewhere making it look like it was additive to SLR.

Sea level isn’t static is the one lesson we should all understand regarding any semblance of permanence in sea levels staying constant for long. There are a lot more factors going on rather than just water volume going into and out of the global ocean that affect local sea level. We are probably seeing the most stable sea levels of the last 115,000 years, this last 2000 years, but this will be temporary too.

John M. Ware
December 28, 2019 4:11 am

Good article, consistent with others I have read. Two errors: the author uses “varies” [a verb] where she means “various” [an adjective]; and there is not, and never was, a year 0. The beginning of whatever year that was was January 1, the year 1, ending December 31; the next January 1 began year 2. Centuries are also reckoned in that way: in spite of living in the year 2019, we are in the 21st century. The first century A.D. began with the year 1 and ended with the year 100; the second century began with the year 101 and ended with the year 200. In our current century, the 21st, it began on Jan 1 2001 and will end on Dec 31 2100. Thus, 2000 was the final year of the 20th century.

Non Scientist
December 28, 2019 4:37 am

Where are all the articles of people bemoaning the loss of their ocean-front properties to the rising waters? Have the prices of such properties collapsed? Anywhere in the world? Malibu? The Florida Keys? Surely there must be documentation of seaside cities where acres upon acres of property have been abandoned? No? Huh. Wonder why not?

Reply to  Non Scientist
December 28, 2019 5:04 am

Didn’t you see them? They are right next to the articles bemoaning the ocean submerging the Maldives in their entirety … last year … as predicted.

The articles showing the new ocean side resort and airport in the Maldives are ‘fake news’ developed by the Koch Brother.

December 28, 2019 4:44 am

“The best evidence is that global sea level has fallen by at least 2 metres since the the Holocene high stand about 4,000 BC; that is about 6,0000 years ago, a time known as the Minoan warm period.”

Well the geology of Hallett Cove in SA shows a SLR of 130M between 15000 and 6-7000 years ago and I have the Govt pamphlet to verify that although it was taught to generations of geology students on excursions there. Basically Spenser and St Vincent Gulf didn’t exist and the coast was south of Kangaroo Island on the edge of the Continental shelf at the start of that ice melting. But after that 130M rise presumably there was a 3M drop some time to produce the Stranded Shingle Dunes at the head of Spenser Gulf above Whyalla-

“The Stranded Shingle Beach Ridges north along the western coastline of Upper Spencer Gulf have been provisionally entered for inclusion as a State Heritage Place in the South Australian Heritage Register. There are only 2 other places in the world registered with similar Shingle Ridges being in Egypt and Scotland.
A geological phenomenon, these stranded shingle beach deposits have been traced over a distance of some 50kms from near the head of Spencer Gulf southwards along its western shore to Stony Point, and provide a distinctive geological feature which is believed to date back to the Pleistocene period.
Consisting of moderately sorted, rounded to sub-angular pebbles and cobbles, the deposits form sinuous, flat topped and well preserved ridges 3-5 metres above present mean sea level.
Most are usually narrow – no more than 10-15 metres wide. In some areas the deposits form cliffs behind the modern beach.
The movement of gravel by present day waves in the northern part of Spencer Gulf is restricted compared with that indicated by the ridges. It appears that the combination of a high sea level (3 metres higher than today), strong easterly winds, and high wave energy dissipation along the shore line, were responsible for the deposits”

They’re fairly impressive and you know damn well looking at them the current sea level or aboriginals didn’t put them there-
comment image&exph=677&expw=1145&q=stranded+shingle+dunes+fitzgerald+bay&selectedindex=0&qpvt=stranded+shingle+dunes+fitzgerald+bay&ajaxhist=0&vt=0&eim=1,6

Then you look at the tide gauges at Fort Denison and Port Arthur and you know the doomsters aren’t talking science with their tree ring circus and GIGO computer models as SLR is the one true temperature proxy to rule them all down the ages. So much for their bogeyman and moving right along as they don’t mention that much anymore.

Doug Huffman
December 28, 2019 5:05 am

I’m Septuagenarian with +4 s.d. IQ and a life time of observation – trying to see what no one else does – tells me that most people are quite blind except to their preconceptions and appetites.

Hocus Locus
December 28, 2019 6:14 am

I made this handy smart diagram. If it was a dumb video it would actually be shown, but here it is anyway

comment image

December 28, 2019 6:20 am

On a vacation to “sinking” or “inundated” Miami Beach we saw construction taking place every where. Property is ultra expensive. Are banks making loans on properties they believe will soon be submerged? No they are not. Does an artificially inhabitable barrier island want national taxpayers to pay for lnfrastructure projects to improve it’s stability. Yes they certainly do. Climate Change. The gift that keeps on giving.

Reply to  Troe
December 30, 2019 9:09 am

Key Largo neighborhoods were flooded for over 80 days this fall, the streets have ‘No wake’ signs.

Robert W. Turner
December 28, 2019 6:53 am

Because there is no sea level rise. Sea level is at stillstand. Stillstand is a term from stratigraphy, which is the most appropriate science for studying sea level, in which globally there is no uniformity of transgression or regression. Coastlines around the world are showing a mix of sea level fall, rise, and no change – this means that regional and local factors are dominating over global factors – stillstand.

Mark Broderick
December 28, 2019 7:01 am

Jennifer Marohasy’

“I know that there is fear within the varies various ? communities within which I exist…..”

December 28, 2019 7:29 am

Roman ports all across the Mediterranean are above the current (tideless) sea level.


john mcguire
Reply to  ralfellis
December 29, 2019 8:06 am
Kenan Meyer
December 28, 2019 8:17 am

No other than Leonard diCaprio delivers the ultimate evidence.

Look here

Clyde Spencer
December 28, 2019 10:09 am

Potholes in the hard bedrock of montane rivers and streams are reasonably well understood. They are usually correlated with high water velocities, such as were often obtained at the end of the last continental glaciation. One sometimes even observes them in the walls of a canyon carved by glaciers. ‘Potholes’ along ocean shorelines are more problematic. Personally, I’d be reluctant to form an overarching hypothesis based on a single shoreline feature.

What I see in the photograph is a pile of rubble from a cliff that is being undercut, which is common with transgressing seas in geologic history. The supposed wave-cut terrace is present on the left and right, but seems to actually be missing in the center. Alternative hypotheses are that there is both vertical and lateral differences in the degree of induration or cementation of the sandstones, leading to resistant layers sticking out from the rest. It would be more convincing if there were a flat topographic feature developed on vertical dipping beds. Indeed, the origin of the ‘potholes’ may well be from lateral differences in resistance to wave erosion. That is, horizontal variations make certain areas of the coastline more susceptible to wave attack and one ends up with small embayments being called a “pothole.” But, the bottom line is that the collapsing cliff face argues more strongly that there is at least intermittent erosion eating away at the shoreline.

It is an interesting hypothesis, but, I’d like to see more examples, and examples that are less ambiguous.

Reply to  Clyde Spencer
December 28, 2019 1:11 pm

Hi Clyde. Go to the picture at the top of the original blog post at my website to see the pot holes. Cheers,

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Jennifer
December 29, 2019 9:33 pm

Hi Jennifer
Thank you for drawing my attention to the photograph at the top of your original article. Clearly, there are classic potholes showing in the photograph. However, it is difficult to tell just what the relief is for what you are referring to as the wave-cut terrace. The absence of vegetation on the shoreline indicates that either tides and/or storm waves frequently impinge on the bare rock. And, both salinity and the mechanical abrasion inhibit vegetation. However, I have observed vegetation regrowing on what is essentially bare rock in glaciated terrains in one or two decades. So, I don’t think that what we are looking at in your picture is anything but recent.

I still would not rule out lateral variations in the coherence of the sandstones as contributing to the potholes. It would sort of be the inverse of organic material ‘seeding’ the local calcification of the sandstone.

It is an interesting situation, but I think that it needs a geologist or geomorphologist looking at it up close to be more certain of just what is going on.

john mcguire
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
December 29, 2019 8:19 am

Very impressive—of course, I didn’t understand one damn word of it, but…that’s beside the point…

Steve Oregon
December 28, 2019 10:13 am

IMO much of the clinging to the sham is an effort to avoid personal and institutional consequences by shoving the day of reckoning into the future to some point just beyond their demise
It’s hard to be held accountable once you’re in the grave.

graham dunton
December 28, 2019 10:35 am

Duly noted, observa , December 28, 2019 at 4:44 am

And in Australia’s premier location, for the dissemination of miss-reporting, Cairns, highly trained university graduates, are vying for funds, to save their patch of coral.

While back inland, at a distance of 215km, old reef.

(SIC) Map: Chillagoe-Mungana Caves National Park map (PDF, 127K) (https://parks.des.qld.gov.au/parks/chillagoe-caves/pdf/chillagoe-map.pdf)Chillagoe is 215km west of Cairns, around 3hrs drive. It can be accessed from the northern end of the Atherton Tableland via Mareeba and Dimbulah. The road is sealed to Almaden. Over the final 32km of road there are both sealed and unsealed sections. Chillagoe can also be …
See more on parks.des.qld.gov.au (EQ)

December 28, 2019 12:14 pm

Charles Rotter for Jennifer Marohasy

“This is intended as the first of a series of blog posts on sea level change.”

Well, I sincerely hope that Dr Marohasy will manage to present us, in her next blog posts:
– less subjective thoughts, less nice coastal landscape pictures, and thus
– more real numbers, more graphs;
– a more global evaluation, i.e. not restricted to (tiny portions of) Australia.

How is it possible to solely speak about some isolated pieces of Australia’s coasts like in the guest post above? After all, Australia’s entire coastal line is over 25,000 km.

But, on the other hand… it is less than 5 (yes: five) % of the worldwide sum of all coasts!
Japan’s and the Philippines’ coastal lines are even bigger.

The greatest tide gauge directory, PMSL, contains over 1500 entries; 92 of them are located in Australia.
Thus, speaking solely about Australia wrt sea levels makes here few sense.

I made an own PMSL evaluation, with slightly lower trends and acceleration factor than shown by e.g. Dangendorf & al.:


or by Grant Foster:


Only those PMSL stations were considered which have at least 30 years activity, and for which vertical land movement correction data was available from valuable sources like:


The following graph comparing Australia’s sea level behavior (blue) with that of the Globe (red) explains pretty good that even a big region like Australia is no ‘ersatz’ for the Globe (in black we additionally see satellite altimetry by NOAA):


The graph shows the evidence: from 1900 till 1990, there was in Australia no sea level rise at all! There was rather a negative trend. Rising began there after 1990.

But the rest of the Globe differs quite a lot from this DownUnder!

Trends for 1900-2018, in mm/year:
– Australia: -0.85 ± 0.05
– Globe: 1.32 ± 0.02

Trends for the satellite era, 1993-2018:
– Australia: 4.05 ± 0.34
– Globe: 2.81 ± 0.12 (satellite-based altimetry: 2.87)

It’s nice to tell all the time that x, y, or z thousands of years ago, sea levels were higher.
But this consideration is of no help when trying to reassure… (re)insurances.

J.-P. D.

December 28, 2019 7:35 pm

Re : Historical photographs revisited: A case study for dating and characterizing recent loss of coral cover on the inshore Great Barrier Reef


Which is the Nature Paper JM was questioning, if you overlay the photos from the Figure 4 “Historical and modern photographs of Stone Island.” then Figure 4.a and Figure 4.e show the 2012 photo was taken from North of the 1890 original. Its hard to say exactly but its at least hundreds of meters and could be a km or more I’d guess. Its really obvious. A rookie mistake.

They say “Geological features in the background of the images used to identify the location of the historical photographs include Gloucester Island (GI) and Cape Gloucester (CG).”

Getting the same location is vital if they’re making direct comparisons.

Reply to  TimTheToolMan
December 28, 2019 9:46 pm

Tim, given that the original photos were taken 1890, there so many unknown factors that could not have been taken into consideration. Storms are mentioned as a potential for damage, but how many were there and how severe? The storms they do mention seem to be more in regards to runoff from flooding, no mention of large surf. Cyclones cause massive damage to corals!

The Crown of Thorn starfish are another major contributor to the state of the reef. There are more control methods now than there has ever been, we have gone from one boat to seven in recent years to monitor and to cull these creatures. Each COT consume centimeters of coral every day. Given that there is a population explosion of them every 15 to 17 years it’s easy to work out the photo op times that suit the ‘coral bleaching’ lies. Hundreds of thousands of them have been culled in recent years. At their peak you can’t see the coral for the starfish. Of course this fortunately, doesn’t happen accross the entire reef at the same time.

Jennifer has proven through her video ‘Beige Reef’ that whatever damage may have occurred in this area the past, there is little evidence of it today. This proves just how resilient the coral reefs are, and the extent that ‘global warmists’ will go to promote their agenda.

I don’t know why they chose this area to conduct their studies. The Great Barrier Reef is the size of the UK! And unless you are on one of the small islands within the reef, almost all of the reef is 15 to 150 kilometers from the coastline. And it’s more than 2000 kilometers long! Given that that chose a site just off the mainland then many of the studies would be irrelevant. It would be easy to cherry pick a reef to suit their purpose, at more than 345,000
square kilometres of coral reefs there’s going to be some damage somewhere. They just happened to pick a beige one close to shore and portrayed it as dead.

I guess they picked it because of the photos, they had a reference point to make up lies about.

Reply to  Megs
December 29, 2019 4:02 am

Megs writes

Tim, given that the original photos were taken 1890, there so many unknown factors that could not have been taken into consideration.

But if you overlay the landscape in the far background you can see the discrepancy easily. If they’ve found the right spot and it didn’t look at all like it did in 1890 then that would have blown their entire work apart. 130 years of erosion might have done that.

I don’t know why they chose this area to conduct their studies. The Great Barrier Reef is the size of the UK!

Its also not part of the “Great barrier Reef” in the sense that the GBR is way off shore. These are just a couple of coral reefs very close to a town of 10k people. I dont doubt thousands of people over the years have trampled the above the waterline parts of these reefs and that cant be good for them compared to 1890 either.

December 28, 2019 7:54 pm

I really liked the short film “Beige Reef”. It was informative and well done. If someone does not have enough attention span to watch that then that person is beyond help. (sans medication?)

John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia
December 29, 2019 5:26 am

7,000 years of sea-level fall, as surveyed on the Rockingham-Becher Plain, south of Perth (modified with my red annotation of atmos CO2 in ppm below the original black annotation.
Black numbers at the black dot locations represent age dated (radio-carbon analysis) paleo shell deposits. Dashed black lines are schematic parallel strandlines interpreted from the age dated locations.
Original Source: Geology and Landforms of the Perth region / author, J.R. (Bob) Gozzard. Geological Survey of Western Australia, 2007.
As the super-sleuth scientist, Holmes once said, “You see, but you do not observe.” Although Holmes’s knowledge of geology was limited, he knew a good soil when he saw it (paraphrasing Dr Watson in “A Study in Scarlet”.
Holmes was also an excellent researcher, unlike our alarmist scientists today and their puppets, the environmental and science journalists of the Main-Stream-Media. The history of the Earth is in the rocks. Sedimentary, my dear Watson!

Ulric Lyons
December 29, 2019 5:43 am

During each centennial solar minimum the AMO is in its warm phase, causing increased melt of the Greenland ice sheet and continental glaciers, which raises the sea level.


December 29, 2019 12:22 pm

The undercut limestone islands of tonga, pulau and Thailand are clear evidence of sea level fall.

Fort Pickens in Florida, famous for having Geronimo as a prisoner, was built at the waters edge. It is now high and dry.

Many long term tidal gauges show sea levels are falling.

Reply to  Ferdberple
December 29, 2019 2:57 pm


“Many long term tidal gauges show sea levels are falling.”

This is absolutely correct.
But… why don’t you speak about those gauges which show sea levels don’t?

You don’t need to believe me (very few people do on this blog anyway).

To my own surprise, here is a chart showing you, using the P(S)MSL tide gauge directory, the difference between the wolrdwide averaging
– of gauges with at least 30 years of activity (red)
with that
– of gauges with at least 100 years of activity (green).

This is layman’s work, based on raw PMSL data, and with, in addition, a raw evaluation of that data (nonetheless including corrections accounting for vertical land movement around the gauges.

In comparison you see Grant Foster’s professional evaluation (in grey/black).

Trend comparisons, in mm/year

– 1900-2018
— 30y+ : 1.32 ± 0.02
— 100y+ : 1.99 ± 0.03
– Foster : 1.48 ± 0.01

1993-2018 (satellite altimetry era)
— 30y+ : 2.81 ± 0.12
— 100y+ : 2.68 ± 0.34
– Foster : 3.19 ± 0.07

The great peaks and drops in the green plot’s recent period tell you that there were few 100y+ active stations. The excessive trend for the 100+y entire period shows you the inverse.

90 stations worldwide! That is definitely not enough:

Grant Foster’s higher trends, quite similar to those obtained by other professional evaluations, is very probably due to the use of ordinary least square techniques for anomaly computation. I use a far more primitive technique.

Draw your own conclusions!

J.-P. D.

Source pf PMSL data:

Reply to  Bindidon
December 30, 2019 1:50 am


I managed to forget the link to the sea level comparison chart:

Good grief.

Johann Wundersamer
January 7, 2020 6:24 pm

This last low sea level is particularly important, because it from this base sea levels are perhaps still rising back to average Holocene levels. But are they really? –> This last low sea level is particularly important, because [ ] from this base, sea levels are perhaps still rising back to average Holocene levels. But are they really?

Johann Wundersamer
January 7, 2020 6:37 pm

“When I stand beside the circular pothole that you can see in the centre of the picture accompanying this blog post (… scroll to the very top).”

You mean – that:

comment image

Johann Wundersamer
January 7, 2020 6:43 pm

“Potholes are formed by the relentless grinding of harder rocks — perhaps granite— caught in a depression in this softer sandstone. Pounding surf causes the harder rocks to swirl — round and round — grinding down.”

Similar https://www.google.com/search?q=glacier+moulin&oq=glacier+moulan&aqs=chrome.

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