Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I see that Charles the Moderator has posted up the report of the fears of the loss of the Puncak Jaya glacier here on WUWT. Below is a photo of the current state of the glacier, which is in Irian Jaya on the island of New Guinea, north of Australia.
My first thought upon reading the popular article, of course, was … before we join in mourning the dear departed, just how old is that disappearing tropical glacier?
Took a while to find the original study. I had to go through SciHub since this stuff is always paywalled. The study only mentions the total age once, without further comment of any kind:
The glaciers near Puncak Jaya are remnants of glaciers that have existed for ∼5,000 y (37, 38)
OK, five thousand years. And going to the underlying reference (37) I find
There is no evidence for ice on any of the New Guinea mountains between about 7,000 and 5,000 yr BP, and in fact the tree line of Mt. Wilhelm was as much as 200m above its present position from 8,300 to 5,000 yr BP.
So this paper, which is being pushed as being horrible news that somehow shows that the climate alarmists are right about their fantasized impending Thermageddon™, actually proves that the Pacific tropics are not yet as warm as they were five to seven thousand years ago. Doesn’t seem anywhere near as scary that way, does it?
But wait … there’s more. A related question is, how long has the Puncak Jaya glacier been melting? From the study once again …
Likewise, the glaciers near Puncak Jaya have been retreating since the end of the most recent neoglacial period ∼1850 CE.
So the Puncak Jaya glacier melt and retreat did NOT start with the modern increase in CO2, which has occurred mostly since the early 1900s. Instead, the melting started from a natural fluctuation in temperature around 1850. And guess what?
Scientists don’t have a clue why the “most recent neoglacial period” ended ~ 1850 CE rather than 1750 CE or 1950 CE … but they’re more than happy to tell us what the climate will be like in the year 2100.
Gotta love the hubris, at least …
Best to all on a lovely rainy morning, fire season in California is over, the forest I live in is happy, what’s not to like?
PS—As always I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words you are referring to so we can all understand just what and who you are discussing.