Guest commentary by David Middleton
I’m sure many WUWT readers have read Eric Worrall’s post, the headlines and seen the videos.
- CNN: “14 feared dead in New Zealand volcano eruption”
- The Grauniad: “New Zealand police to investigate volcanic eruption – as it happened”
- The Independent: “New Zealand eruption: No survivors on White Island after volcano suddenly erupts, say police”
All volcanoes are dangerous
I would normally follow up “Volcanoes are dangerous” with “No schist Sherlock”… Then again, I’ve seen idiot tourists crossing safety barriers at Grand Canyon NP and eating a picnic lunch in the forest at Grand Tetons NP – right under a sign that said, “No Open Food Containers. Bears Present”. There’s a reason the park gift shop sells fire extinguisher-sized pepper spray dispensers.
No active volcano is safe. Neither are dormant volcanoes. White Island was exceptionally unsafe.
I ran across this article some time ago, when researching a possible post on volcanoes:
ERIK KLEMETTI
SCIENCE
08.06.12
How Dangerous is Visiting New Zealand’s White Island?THERE HAS ALWAYS been a fragile relationship between volcanoes and tourism.
[…]
However, the danger can appear to be low in some places but in reality, you are literally putting your lives in the hands of tour operators when you make the visit.
One of the best examples of this might be White Island in New Zealand. Off the northern coast of the North Island in the Bay of Plenty, White Island is an active volcano that is part of the volcanic arc that stretches from the Kermadec Islands to the north all the way to Ruapehu in the south. Most of the volcanic edifice sits underwater, but the main crater is above water, sitting out like a sentinel in the Bay. Boat tours of White Island occur daily from Whakatane, where tourists can go to the island and actually walk inside the main crater – which, in theory, is nothing more hazardous than taking a stroll through the Norris Geyser Basin at Yellowstone or Bumpass Hell at Lassen. However, unlike those locations, White Island has erupted recently – in fact, between 1998-2001, the volcano produced multiple VEI 2-3 eruptions and is one of the most active in New Zealand.
Does this mean that tours shouldn’t happen? It is a tricky question. I was in New Zealand in 2009 and considered taking the White Island tour. However, the more I thought about it, the more it bothered me that these tours, although offering warning to tourists of the potential dangers, are potentially the perfect cocktail for a Galeras-like tragedy. By making the visits to the White Island crater seem routine, it can lull the tour operators and tourists into a false sense of security, much like what happened with Stanley Williams and the other volcanologists who visited the crater of Galeras in January 1993. In the case of Galeras, the volcanologists were caught off guard by a relatively small explosion in the crater, leading to the deaths of 6 of the science team and 3 tourists. Visiting White Island is almost exactly the same as climbing down into the crater at Galeras, and although GNS Science keeps close tabs on the activity at White Island, the 1993 tragedy at Galeras shows that even seasoned veterans of volcano monitoring can be fooled or volcanoes can erupt with little to no notice (such as what White Island did in 2000) … and unlike the Tongariro Crossing that passes between two active volcanoes, the White Island tours go into the active volcano’s crater.
[…]
For the White Island tours, people are given protective equipment like gas masks and helmets, but if even a small phreatic (steam-driven) explosion were to happen when a group was in the crater, the consequences could be catastrophic. Will it take a half dozen deaths at White Island to change the culture, or is that merely the cost of being adventurous? It is hard to say.
[…]
Wired
Erik Klemetti is a volcanologist and associate professor of geosciences at Denison University. All volcanoes are dangerous, even the dormant ones. Volcanoes like White Island are particularly dangerous. Unlike Yellowstone or Kilauea, there are no safe areas. Yellowstone and Kilauea are intensely monitored. There are areas that are open to tourism and hiking and areas that are not. Back in 2006, we did the crater hike at Kilauea and then, the next day, did the Blue Hawaiian helicopter tour, flying over an active skylight. That was an awe-inspiring sight.
However, White Island is nothing like Yellowstone or Kīlauea.
Why New Zealand’s White Island Erupted Without Warning
Steam volcanic eruptions like this one can only be detected seconds or minutes in advanceBy Shane Cronin, The Conversation US on December 9, 2019
The following essay is reprinted with permission fromThe ConversationThe Conversation, an online publication covering the latest research.
[…]
White Island is one of several volcanoes in New Zealand that can produce sudden explosive eruptions at any time. In this case, magma is shallow, and the heat and gases affect surface and ground water to form vigorous hydrothermal systems.
In these, water is trapped in pores of rocks in a super-heated state. Any external process, such as an earthquake, gas input from below, or even a change in the lake water level can tip this delicate balance and release the pressure on the hot and trapped water.
The resulting steam-driven eruption, also called a hydrothermal or phreatic eruption, can happen suddenly and with little to no warning. The expansion of water into steam is supersonic in speed and the liquid can expand to 1,700 times its original volume. This produces catastrophic impacts.
[…]
Monitoring and warning for hydrothermal eruptions is a huge challenge. We don’t normally see these eruptions coming, no matter how much we would like to. Many systems are already “primed” for such events, but the triggers are poorly understood.
[…]
Scientific American
Shane Cronin is a volcanologist and professor of Earth science at the University of Auckland. Phreatic eruptions are extremely dangerous.
Phreatic eruptions are steam-driven explosions that occur when water beneath the ground or on the surface is heated by magm, lava, hot rocks, or new volcanic deposits (for example, tephra and pyroclastic-flow deposits). The intense heat of such material (as high as 1,170 ° C for basaltic lava) may cause water to boil and flash to steam, thereby generating an explosion of steam, water, ash, blocks, and bombs.
USGS
According to Brown et al., 2017, there have been at least 278,368 fatalities related to volcanic activity since 1500 AD. As expected, the vast majority (99.7%) of these deaths were among people living in the vicinity of volcanoes. The next largest group was tourism-related.
Table 6 from Brown et al., 2017
| Group | Incidents | Number of fatalities |
|---|---|---|
| Tourists or tourism-related | 113 | 561 |
| Scientists | 22 | 67 |
| Miners | 6 | 108 |
| Media | 6 | 30 |
| Emergency response personnel | 5 | 57 |
Tourism-related fatalities
Many of these deaths resulted from complacency and/or ignoring safety protocols.
Persistent volcanic activity can result in hazard footprints that rarely extend beyond the crater. Such regular activity can engender complacency in tourists and guides, although small changes in activity, topography or wind direction can change the hazard footprint. At least 22 eruptive (and 5 indirect) fatal incidents occurred more than 1 year after the eruption start date, commonly at volcanoes known for regular activity. Long-lived eruptions affect analysis of relationships with VEI, as the VEI in GVP (2013) normally represents the tephra volume over the full length of the eruption. Ninety-one of the 113 incidents (81%) occurred during quiescence or low-explosivity eruptions of VEI 0–2.
[…]
Tourist co-operation is a requirement for safety in any volcanic setting, with visitors being relied upon to heed warnings and exercise appropriate caution. The 23 fatalities at Yellowstone occurred between 1890 (Whittlesey, 1995) and 2016 (Mettler, 2016), where deaths resulted from immersion in the near boiling water of thermal pools. Whittlesey (1995) describes these as accidental falls and misadventure – where the victims believed the pools swimmable. Of these fatalities, nine (36%) were children younger than 10 years old. Educational and safety information is provided and safe boardwalks through thermal areas have been installed, yet injuries are still frequent as visitors choose to engage in risky behaviour (Lalasz, 2013). Despite the frequency of injuries, only two fatalities are recorded in the last 30 years at Yellowstone, suggesting safety measures have been largely successful and the visitor population has become more risk averse at this volcano. Seventeen deaths are recorded at Rotorua, New Zealand since 1946, of which at least seven were tourists. These fatalities occurred primarily at hot pools through quiescent gas emissions. The decrease in incidents over time seen at Yellowstone is not seen here, with seven incidents since 2000. Recommendations were made in 2010 aimed at improving safety at geothermal pools (Bassindale and Hosking, 2011).
Brown et al., 2017
Tourism should have never been allowed on White Island.
Science-related fatalities
Professional geologists know they are risking their lives when they study volcanoes up close – But that’s their job, their chosen profession. And sometimes they pay the ultimate price for trying to increase our knowledge of how volcanoes work. Erik Klemetti mentioned the 1993 Galeras incident, in which 9 members of a 16 person expedition were killed.
USGS volcanologist David Johnston was killed in the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens.
David Johnston, a 30-year-old volcanologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, was swept away by the catastrophic eruption of Mount St. Helens on the morning of May 18, 1980. As one of the first members of the U.S. Geological Survey monitoring team to arrive at Mount St. Helens, and the scientist in charge of volcanic-gas studies, Dave spent long hours working on and close to the mountain. Ironically, he was caught at an observation post that was considered relatively safe. From his experience with active Alaskan volcanoes, Dave understood better than most the hazards of explosive volcanism. At the same time, he repeatedly voiced the conviction that adequate hazard evaluations require accepting the dangers of on-site monitoring of active volcanic processes. The volcano-monitoring effort of which Dave was part helped persuade the authorities first to limit access to the area around the volcano, and then to resist heavy pressure to reopen it, thereby holding the May 18 death toll to a few tens instead of hundreds or thousands.
USGS
Volcanologists and Katia &Maurice Krafft and Harry Glicken were killed by a pyrocalstic flow from Mount Unzen in 1991…
In June 1991, while filming eruptions at Mount Unzen (Japan), they were caught in a pyroclastic flow, which unexpectedly swept out of the channel that previous smaller flows had been following and onto the ridge they were standing on. They were killed instantly along with 41 other people, including fellow volcanologist Harry Glicken, several firefighters, and journalists also covering the eruptions.
Wikipedia
Brown et al., 2017 found that 67 deaths were related to scientific activities in and around active volcanoes. Almost half of these deaths occurred in the 1952 destruction of the Japanese oceanographic research vessel Kaiyo Maru No. 5 while observing a massive eruption of Myōjin-shō in the Bayonnaise Rocks region of a large submarine caldera.
Volcanoes are dangerous… Even to people who understand the risks.
Politician-related fatalities
Whakaari/White Island: Police and WorkSafe launch investigations
Thomas Manch and Henry Cooke
Dec 10 2019[…]
The dead include tourists and tour guides, who were among 47 people on the island to view the volcano crater that afternoon.
A spokeswoman for WorkSafe said the investigation would focus on the harm and the loss of life.
WorkSafe New Zealand has opened a health and safety investigation into the harm and loss of life caused by the White Island eruption.
“As the workplace health and safety regulator and administrator of the Adventure Activities Regulations, WorkSafe will be investigating and considering all of the relevant work health and safety issues surrounding this tragic event.”
A day after the eruption, politicians are facing questions on why tours of the volcanic island — which had in recent weeks appeared closer to eruption — were allowed.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said “bigger questions” would be asked and answered about the death of multiple tourists on Whakaari/White Island.
The prime minister, along with Tourism Minister Kelvin Davis and Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta, were unwilling to comment on the matter on Tuesday afternoon.
[…]
Stuff…
The only people who should be answering questions are the politicians who allowed this to happen. The geology of White Island was not a mystery or a secret.
Geology of White Island
Whakaari/White Island “is an active composite stratovolcano in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, that comprises many small volume (<0·1 km3) andesite–dacite lava flows and pyroclastic deposits with phenocryst contents of ∼15–44%”. It is located in the Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ). This is the youngest and most active part of the 22 million year old (22 ma) Cenozoic continental margin arc volcanic system of North Island, New Zealand. It’s actually two over-lapping composite stratocones, the extinct Ngatoro Cone and very active Central Cone (Cole et al., 2000) .
“Safe” is an antonym to White Island.
White Island is New Zealand’s most active volcano and in historical times (the last 150 years) has been characterized by sporadic eruptive episodes featuring small phreatic, phreatomagmatic and strombolian eruptions, associated with extensive fumarolic activity. The last eruptive episode on White Island began in 1976, with numerous small phreatomagmatic and strombolian eruptions (Houghton & Nairn, 1989). Olivine-bearing basaltic andesite bombs and blocks were erupted in March 1977 (Cole & Graham, 1987), and it is these samples that are compared and contrasted with the prehistoric lavas exposed in outcrops on Ngatoro and Central cones. The most recent eruptive episode ceased in 1992, although small phreatic explosions continue, and the level of activity is now (1999) again increasing.
Cole et al., 2000
When it comes to volcanoes, these are really bad words:
Under most conditions, Strombolian eruptions are relatively safe to watch; but there’s no safe place on White Island from which to view one.
References
Brown, S.K., Jenkins, S.F., Sparks, R.S.J. et al. “Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance and victim classification”. J Appl. Volcanol.6, 15 (2017) doi:10.1186/s13617-017-0067-4
Cole, J. Wh., T. Thordarson, R. M. Burt. “Magma Origin and Evolution of White Island (Whakaari) Volcano, Bay of Plenty, New Zealand”. Journal of Petrology, Volume 41, Issue 6, June 2000, Pages 867–895, https://doi.org/10.1093/petrology/41.6.867
Featured Image
Many years ago I was on university business in Colima Mexico which is under that notoriously active Volcán de Fuego. I had an opportunity to go deep into the normally closed zone near the volcano’s flank. I took it! We walked among boulders that volcano had spewed in previous eruptions that were the size of cars. It was one of the most exciting and wonderful experiences I ever had but it was also absolutely terrifying. We got close enough that we could see red stuff rolling down the cone and that was on a quiet day. The next day a mere burp by Volcán de Fuego standards was big enough that it would have killed us. So I understand the fascination and the intense desire to get up close to a volcano. I know exactly why the tourists went in there. I had a whole lecture about the risks before I left and I agreed, eyes wide open. I contributed to the expedition in by carrying stuff. While I stood there looking at melted rock and steam I thought about my family, especially my kids. I learned it is just not worth getting that close to a volcano for a thrill. The island should be closed to tourists. They can get their thrill by riding a boat around it.
I hope the urge to limit personal freedom that allows people to place themselves in potentially dangerous situations is avoided, after this White Island event.
Our hearts go out to the bereaved and hope the injured make successful recovery.
I have toured all over NZ on three occasions in the past 15 years. I was always impressed by the realism of the New Zealanders, which probably comes from the fact there are earth quakes there every day. On my last tour I detected a subtle but definite change taking place in risk acceptance. The current PM is a part of that attitude change which is not for the better.
We all do stuff that we reflect on afterwards and decide never again. It is what makes us human and what makes life worth living.
Here is an example of a personal, insane choice.
https://www.franzjosefglacier.com/
When you are walking between two walls of brilliant blue ice, in the crevasses of Franz Josef, that form as the glacier heads towards the terminal edge. It is sobering to remember, this glacier is literally on the edge of the two tectonic plates that make up NZ. At any moment, an earth tremor could bring those beautiful ice cliffs down and bury you in hundreds of tonnes of ice.
Taking the crampons off, at the end of the icy trek felt particularly good….
JA wants to shutdown NZ because she believes CO2 is killing the planet.
If one specific CO2 source was inflicting a higher mortality rate than all of the guns and cars in the US, combined, while all other CO2 sources weren’t harming anyone, a responsible government would shut down the specific CO2 source
The greentard reaction would be to shut down allCO2 sources.
Two more of the hospitalised have died overnight.
The injuries of some of the rescued are horrific and are probably not survivable – burns to 80-90% of their body and 20 of the rescued still needing assisted breathing.
The pressure will go on for tourists to return to the island.
The activity has been a terrific money-spinner for the local community.
I shifted to a nearby city and had been planning on a White Island visit for 2020, but it’s off my wish-list now.
We are spoilt for choice in NZ for volcanoes, thermal areas, and off-shore islands….. there’s always somewhere safer to visit.
Sure the tourist were “incapable of assessing the risk”.
So what?
What part of active volcano,frequent past eruptions did they miss?
The “risk” was part of the tour.
Why else visit such a site?
So nothing needs done,these tourists have done their service to their fellow man, visiting active volcanos is dangerous,possibly fatal.
I still ride motorcycle,the risk there has become obvious,half the motorists are planning to run you over and the other half can’t see you with either eye so will run you over by neglect.
If people want to visit danger zones and others wish to guide them what is the problem?
The mantra of our progressive comrades,never let a crisis go to waste, should be ignored.
People die,in fact everyone reading this is going to die.
What is next banning every extreme sport?
Now I see Davids point,but people have to chose often with very little info.
This event will enable future tourists to chose more wisely.
This wasn’t a “risk,” It was a near-certainty. The only reason this hadn’t happened before is that tourists were not on the island during an eruption. The frequency of both had been increasing since 2011.
David,
I would say that if no tourist had ever returned from the island, then it would be appropriate to claim “near-certainty” of death because of an eruption. However, these appear to be the first deaths in decades. The objective odds actually seem to favor the risk takers. Again, how does one objectively establish a probability that would warrant denying people the choice to take chances?
The odds of being killed by that specific volcano, were as high as being killed by all of the guns and automobiles in the United States combined…. Without any way to mitigate the risk.
I’ll bet a box of champ that WI will be permanently closed to all activities other than scientific research.
It gripes me that in NZ, work and safety compliance in the work place is so restrictive and costly while for adventure it is open slather. When things go wrong our emergency response teams swing into action at virtually no cost to the distressed party – no offence intended towards the WI casualties. I have already stated my opinion that the prime responsibility lies with GNS.
Personally, I could not care less if there were no tourists in NZ. This attitude is becoming far more prevalent within middles NZ . They clog our roads with slow camper-vans and litter rural camp sites. Add to this the increasing influx of immigrants, many who drive our roads in the most diabolical manner. There have been string of fatal accidents where visitors forgot that we drive on the left. House prices and rent continue to rise t a level defined by The Economist as the most unaffordable ( to a Kiwi) in the world.
Off-topic, but my classic culture is being swamped, diluted, and forgotten by the cosmopolitan elite. Once was the time when I welcomed visitors but they are like fish – after 3 days the appeal declines. My local village of 3000 is now a tourist town. The main street has 15 eat-joints all run by foreigners. Only 4 businesses remain in Kiwi hands – the vet, a book shop and a couple of real estates. Parking is clogged. 40 % of houses are BNB. Its a rare day that I see a local in town.
On the positive side I found the OP to be excellent.
Cheers
M
Until I started looking into it this morning, I was totally unaware of how well the NZ government protects the adventure tourism industry.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/118106636/whakaariwhite-island-eruption-killed-tourists-father-repeats-call-for-changes
Yet they banned offshore oil & gas exploration.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/new-zealand-set-to-ban-oil-and-gas-drilling.html
Its not ‘protection’ , just that the adventure tourism is ‘loosely regulated’ .
The complaint about the Accident Insurance scheme isnt relevant to adventure tourism, as it covers the whole country and almost all accidents , say from workplace to road accidents to falling of a ladder at home. Medical costs, time off work etc are covered without fighting insurance companies through lawyers. As a policy rule tourists are covered even though they arent paying premiums into the self funded scheme ( reserves of NZ$40 bill).
The father who son who lost his life in a plane crash for a skydiving event ( now thats risky!) didnt get a lump sum payout for a claim of negligence as that sort of action in NZ is ruled out for ALL accidents. Im sure if his son had life insurance, they would have had a skydiving exclusion on the policy and would have got nothing either. Sure the plane crashed just after takeoff, and it may have been because too many people at the rear, but going after the Civil aviation regulator smacks of US style ‘only going after the deepest pockets’ and not those directly responsible.
Michael
You remarked, “There have been string of fatal accidents where visitors forgot that we drive on the left.” I can speak from personal experience from a couple of trips to NZ, that one of the risks is that after one has been driving for hours, one tends to drive on autopilot. An example: There was a landslide along the coastal highway and there were cones diverting all traffic to the (my) right lane. After a considerable distance both lanes again became available. However, I felt quite comfortable being in the right hand lane, which is where I had driven my whole life. It wasn’t until I saw a pair of headlights coming at me in my lane that I realized I had to move over. Being tired can contribute to making such mistakes.
Road rules in NZ are “interesting” esp the give way rules. Which lane to be in has never been a problem for me because we in the UK, Australia and NZ drive on the correct side of the road. (Which is largely historical, how horses were mounted and how swords were slung).
That landslide was a result of a pretty large quake that shutdown State Highway 1 on both islands and there were concerns it would never be re-opened.
In all my time living and driving in NZ (Mostly SH2, Rimutaka Hill rd) I have never seen a Kiwi drive slow, clogging up roads, or in a diabolical manner, or dump rubbish out the window of a moving car, never seen a Kiwi driving a car without a WoF. Nah, never happens eh bro?!
What about the Sharkcano?
What kind of volcano is it, and how safe is it?
It’s a bad CyFy channel type of volcano… It’s perfectly safe if you’re not in the movie.
“While White Island’s “throat-clearing” eruption (NZ) was stealing the headlines, Sabancaya Volcano in Peru was continuing its almost-daily string of stratospheric injections.”
See https://electroverse.net/sabancaya-volcano-continues-spitting-particulates-into-the-strat/
The key thing to look for when signing a tour operator’s indemnification form before you embark on your adventure activity is whether said form also infers an application for a Darwin award.
🙁
Volcanic eruptions are becoming more common and dangerous because of global warming. 97 percent of political scientists and dentist agree.
For me, some of the most dangerous things I’ve done have also been the most rewarding and would’ve still been worth it 100 times over even if I died while doing them. One of those was watching live lava flows on the Big Island (Hawaii).
Please don’t take those things away and make life not worth living (to me). If you’re gonna do that, just put a gun to my head and shoot me already!
Kilauea is not analogous to White Island in any way, shape, matter or form, apart from the word volcano.
Back in the 70’s I was involved in repeat surveys of White Island. Part of an effort to predict eruptive events. My role was to reoccupy survey points inside and around the caldera, and take repeat magnetic observations. The idea was that an ascending body of hot magma would have a low magnetic susceptibility, hence we would see an increasing negative magnetic anomaly with time. Not very successful, but worth trying. A geochemist in our group would risk life and limb to descend into fumaroles to sample gasses. Its not for want of trying that precise prediction of eruptive events has not been successful. Having said which. although I think a good, hard look at the procedures and processes for visits is in order, I would not ban such visits in the future. Everything in life has risk.
It may simply be a matter of limiting tours to alert level 0, maybe 1.
It’s often possible to sort of predict lava eruptions. One method is to establish a series of survey stations across the volcano. Increased magma in the magma chamber beneath the volcano causes uplift which can be detected by monitoring the survey station levels. It’s not 100% certain, nothing is.
With a phreatic eruption such as occurred on White Island you don’t get this warning.
However if you can see steam/water vapour issuing from vents in the crater it might be an indication that something was up and it would be better not to be there.
I was living on the southern side of San Juan Island in Puget Sound and woke up to the sound of Mt St Helens. We were all at a party the night before dancing to Jimmy Buffet’s tune Volcano.
Our hospitals are owed multiple millions by foreigners with injuries who are automatically treated then leave the country without paying. They usually never pay. The NZ taxpayer does.
Add to this the cost of search and rescue.
M
Same happens in almost every country, so NZ isn’t unique there. NZ has reciprocal arrangements for medical treatment for tourists with countries such as Australia, and visa versa. In my experience, as I know many people in the medical industry in both Australia and NZ, they just get on with caring for people and then ask questions later. So I admire medical professionals for that.
My mother had a heart attack while on holiday in the US some years back. The stent alone cost US$8000. My parents didn’t buy medical insurance separately as is usually the case when travelling O/S however, as it turned out medical insurance was part of the “benefits” of the credit card company, Amex IIRC, when purchasing airline trips O/S.
Kiwis are never injured overseas and treated in local [not NZ] hospitals ?
Of course not….Kiwis never take risks
Mr. Middleton,
I’m not sure what your complaint is or what you reasonably expect should be done about it.
Volcanoes are tourist attractions, especially active volcanoes. People are reasonably educated about volcanoes; most Americans certainly understand what the word “Pompeii” means and what happened there, even if they do not know the specifics. White Island is a known volcano. The tourists knew what they were getting into. You basically said they could not be educated enough, that they did not know an eruption was a near certainty.
Certainly, you understand there is no such thing as a certainty or a near certainty in dealing with volcanoes. In mid-1970s the area around Mount Baker was evacuated because a major eruption was believed to be imminent. There was no eruption, and it became an embarrassment for the US government.
The memory of Mount Baker affected decision-making concerning Mount St. Helens in 1980. After the initial eruptions, though the earthquakes continued, Mount St. Helens spent weeks doing little if anything. People lived and worked around the volcano. They had resorts to run, trees to harvest. That was their livelihoods. Yes, that bulge on the north side was growing, but even David Johnston (one of the first to express concern about a lateral eruption and a major league badass) could not say with any reasonable degree of certainty what was causing the bulge or if it would explode. How long would you keep people from their livelihoods? What level of probability (because there is no certainty here) would justify denying people their means of living?
In the past 3 years I have visited three volcanoes considered active (Mount Vesuvius, Mount Aetna, Santorini) and seen two dormant or extinct volcanoes (Ischia, Methana). Mount Vesuvius and Mount Aetna were smoking when I went up then. Santorini is known to smoke sometimes. I told people that I didn’t care about the risk – I would go up Mount Vesuvius or die trying.
As I have said many, many times, Mount Vesuvius IS history (Spartacus, Pompeii). So, for that matter, are Mount Aetna (“Hepheastos’ Forge”) and Santorini (“Atlantis”). I’ve studied these active volcanoes for eons and wanted to go up these literal pieces of history.
It seems you would deny that because they might erupt. That was a risk I was willing to accept. You seem to believe that even if people like me accept the risk, the tourism vendors who make the visits and climbs possible should not conduct such visits, which would effectively deny those of us who accept the risk the ability to visit or climb these volcanoes.
You might need to accept that 1. Volcanology is not an exact science at this time and thus you cannot predict when or even if a volcano will erupt (Mount Baker versus Mount St. Helens); and B. People like myself are willing to bear more of a risk than you believe reasonable to visit volcanoes, especially the historic Mount Vesuvius and Santorini, or to simply continue their livelihoods.
In short, there is no perfect solution to this issue. Simply banning people from the area around an active volcano because it might erupt is not acceptable. The best you can do is inform people, as they appear to have been informed in the White Island eruption, and let the proverbial chips fall where they may.
Jeff Cox
December 11, 2019 at 6:21 pm
Very sensible comments…some of us (especially geologists around volcanoes) are prepared to take more risks than others.
David Middleton has suggested that maybe we should limit access to activity level 1 or below…that too makes sense. It’s somewhat similar to the way we restrict (or try to) access to dangerous mountains when weather conditions reach a particular threshold. But please don’t ban all the tours. Yes, as another commenter mentioned, maybe giving factual videos of the risks before tourists go out might limit numbers to those who are seriously interested…it’s a bit like an airline safety video I guess. Planes do crash, many die but some do survive often.
David’s comments about flying in unsafe planes is interesting too…I do understand that he is talking about the risk of a particular plane not a type. But like many geologists I have survived a helicopter crash (Robinson 44 in Quebec) yet I’m happy to fly in helicopters and love doing so…but I will never set foot again in either a R22 or R44. Interestingly they do some of the tours to White Island in Robinson 44s. Strangely I preferred to go by boat!
I’ve flown in helo’s. Our company suffered 1 fatality last year in a helo crash. I would still prefer to fly than take the crew boat and ride the Billy Pugh basket. Thankfully, due to the fact that I’m more of a geophysicist than a wellsite geologist and the miracles of modern technology (Schlumberger Interact), I haven’t had to physically go offshore since 1990. That said, I wouldn’t have hesitated to fly out a semi the day after Macondo (Deepwater Horizon).
While Macondo revealed some systemic problems, the disaster was due to “defining deviancy down”… Allowing a gradual escalation of the tolerance for procedural deviations. Even the, had they properly interpreted the negative pressure test, the disaster would have been averted or at least mostly mitigated.
What people who whine “why did the government let…” don’t realize, or don’t want to bear in mind, is that the island is **Private Property**. If the government is to keep people away they need to buy the island, patrol it, and then fine the heck out of anyone caught on the island.
The NZ Govn’t *HAS* been trying to buy the island since the 1950’s IIRC, but the owning family won’t sell. This event might change that.
@ur momisugly Patrick Why in the world? Unless they charge the tour companies an arm and a leg to bring visitors to the island. If that is the case then they are complicit in the visitors’ deaths. Knowing it was dangerous and people might die and yet keep selling tickets. The NZ government should try emeinent domain.
If your private property is a death trap, in the US, the owner incurs a massive liability if they invite people to tour the death trap.
True, but some claim that our liability laws are too ‘generous.’
They are way too generous to ambulance chasing lawyers.
David, I am a bit surprised by your push for government regulation of the volcano access. A need to have the government save me from myself?
Government control of whitewater sports such as rafting, kayaking, and other adventurous thrill seeking? Rock climbing, dirt biking in steep terrain, where I can hike or picnic because a bear, snake, gator, bison may be present? Surfing big waves needs regulation? Can we include skateboard parks and YouTube videos showing how the risky stunts cause the not so cautious to get hurt and maimed? Skydivers are well known to jump out of a perfectly good airplane for no apparent reason than for the hell of it. Lightening strikes on golf courses and beaches and about anywhere so government approval to go outside based on the weather forecast? I guess skydiving has some risk to other individuals on the ground as a falling body could land on them or smash someones rose garden though.
I’d rather just take my chances for the adventure, just plain curiosity or seize the adrenaline rush available at the moment.
My comments were strictly about White Island, not volcanic features or other forms of adventure tourism. This specific volcano is too dangerous for tourists to ba walking around inside the crater or anywhere else of the island.
A disaster like this wasn’t a possibility, it was a near-certainty.
David,
Just for fun and not that I even care, but for the sake of principle as follows.
The odds of my becoming a volcanic cookie on a visit to White Island are about 1 in 17,520. But much greater than winning the lottery jackpot!
If the likelihood of an eruption is once every 3 years and tours on the island are 1 1/2 hours on the island then the likelihood of me being on the island at the time of an eruption would be 1 in 17,520. Putting that in perspective, the likelihood of my being a volcanic cookie on daily visits would be once in 48 years. Chances are that if I started my daily visits at age 30 I would get bored with the adventure before White Island got me!
Class 5 and 6 whitewater would likely have gotten me much sooner. I got old before it killed me and the risk was worth every swim, bruise, sprain, and strain. Adrenaline kills but I’m a junkie!
I was just checking the odds! 🙂
The probability of the volcano erupting at least once, at some random point in time over any 3-yr period, was close to 100%.
Close to 100% of a tour group, on the island at the time of an eruption, would be killed or maimed.
The probability of a tour group eventually being on the island at the time of an eruption was also very high, maybe close to 100%.
Visiting volcanoes during what is set to be the deepest solar minimum during the space age – which on Spaceweather started in 2006! – is certainly a recipe for an adventure holiday.
There is a big difference between the risk for one individual (the ‘me’) visiting once in a lifetime and groups visiting almost on a daily basis.
According to several genuine experts there were a few very subtle changes in the system right up to the eruption. The tour guides will have observed the vent many times yet did not apparently have concern. One then must assume that a similar event may occur in the future with little warning.
It is not appropriate to compare WI with other land-based volcanoes. WI is a large intermediate composite cone immersed in water with a level a few meters below its active vent. These are rare and will have very distinct eruption precursor signals that are maybe too subtle to recognise within a reasonable time-frame. The eruption was as much a geyser as a classic eruption.
What if a hands-off Government allows visits to continue and this tragedy happens again? They are still not responsible? The public have power over Government. I sense the majority here will be feeling “stay away”.
Apparently, the gross return from the operation is a piddly NZ$ 4.5 mil/ yr. Is the risk worth it? I am not sure how NZ law stands in relation to a Governmental ban. They can impose no-go zones during natural catastrophes (e.g. the Christchurch CBD after the earthquake) but I think that they first have to impose some form of state of emergency. I am sure that there will be a mechanism by which Government could impose a permanent ban. The best mechanism would be to have the owners impose the ban but they may be under a contract to the operators.
My gut feeling as a geologist, who deals with hazard and risk as part of my work, is that WI should be placed permanently off-limits to the general public by whatever means. Why take such risk for $4.5 mil/yr? It makes no sense.
Regards
M
Yep. Maybe allow tours when the Alert Level is 0, possibly 1… But this sort of disaster wasn’t a possibility, or moderate probability… It was a near-certainty.
Furthermore, it endangered the lives of the rescuers and the NZDF EOD team who risked their lives to recover the bodies of 6 of the 8 missing and presumed dead.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-13/new-zealand-white-island-volcano-body-recovery-operation/11797442