Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t JoNova, ZeroHedge – Tesla Car Owners were stuck in a massive queue at Kettleman City Supercharger station on Friday, as the facility was overwhelmed by virtue signalling Californians.
‘Bet they wish they had gas!’ Chaos in California as Tesla drivers are stranded for hours in a half-a-mile-long line to charge their cars on Black Friday
- Shanon Stellini was travelling through Kettleman City on November 30 when she stumbled across around 50 of the electric cars waiting in line for a recharge
- The stagnant procession reportedly spanned back more than half a mile
- ‘Bet they wish they had gas’, quipped Stellini’s partner in a video she captured of the backlog – but for the drivers stranded it was no laughing matter
- The Supercharging station’s 40 charge points was still not enough to meet the overwhelming demand of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend
- To make matters worse, simultaneous re-charging slows down the speed of for everyone – stalling a process that can already take up to 75 minutes
By LUKE KENTON FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 03:46 AEDT, 5 December 2019 | UPDATED: 07:25 AEDT, 6 December 2019
Dozens of Tesla drivers in California were forced to wait in an extensive line after what should’ve been a quick stop at a Supercharger station turned into an hours-long ordeal.
Shanon Stellini was travelling through Kettleman City on November 30 when she stumbled across a backlog of around 50 of the electric cars waiting to recharge in a half-mile line outside of at a station near Interstate 5.
‘Bet they wish they had gas’, quipped Stellini’s partner in a video she captured of the chaos – but for the drivers stranded in the stagnant line the issue was certainly no laughing matter.
The Kettleman City Supercharger station – located halfway between Los Angeles and San Francisco – is already immensely popular, but even with 40 charging stalls on-site the facility was still overrun by the overwhelming demand that one of the year’s busiest travel times brings.
…
Read more (includes video): https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7755753/Chaos-California-Tesla-drivers-stranded-hours-half-mile-long-line-charge.html
Clearly the solution is more government handouts for Elon Musk, to build a network of recharging stations so extensive Tesla owners never have to feel embarrassed in front of deplorables driving gas guzzlers.
And this is with less than 4% of the cars in California being all electric and not all of those can use the Super Charger stations. Most EV owners charge at home though and don’t need open road charging but this is a classic example of unintended consequences. Sooner or later no matter how well you plan your EV will need charging on the road if you use it for an extended trip, forget to charge, or have a power outage and taking that into consideration the Tesla buyers were comforted by the Super Charger installations. At least until now. No state is close to being ready for high EV ownership and forcing it will exacerbate the problem.
From what I can see they will never work in a cold climate. Driving in -20 below weather is simple no possible with a battery powered car. I have drive hundreds of hours in such weather safely and comfortably. I did run out of gas once in that weather and had a clutch failure in that weather, running out of gas was one of the most stupid thing I every did, it could easily been a fatal mistake. I also ran into a rock in -20 weather with the wife and son along, it punched a hole in the transmission, the rock looked like a snow chunk so I straddled it, luckily it was as I was going by a town and a payphone was less than few hundred feet away, back then cell phone were bag phones and I did not have one. I figured it fell onto the road from a load of hay, some reason farmers in western North Dakota leave they hay out in the field during the winter and go get as needed, never did figure that one out, were I grew up in north western Minnesota the hay would have been hard to find covered up with snow.
Its worse than you think, the Tesla superstation appears to be covered with solar panels (check it on map, 27675 Bernard Dr, Kettleman City, CA 93210). I wonder what fraction of those does it take to charge one tesla? And what do they do at night?
Well apart from sticking with hybrids (there’s a 6 month wait ordering the new hybrid RAV4) Toyota are backing hydrogen fuel cells-
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/toyota-mirai-hydrogen-car-hits-australia-36236
along with Hyundai having a bob each way-
https://www.caradvice.com.au/805257/hyundai-nexo-certified-australia/
Naturally you pitch at the taxeaters first with these expensive prototypes while those of us who don’t have access to the rivers of gold are hanging on to our gas guzzlers longer as new car sales take a dive-
https://www.caradvice.com.au/811764/vfacts-november-2019-sales-results/
In Elon’s ways EV buyers trust it seems with online ordering becoming popular-
https://thewest.com.au/lifestyle/motoring/mercedes-to-sell-new-ev-online-with-set-price-ng-b881399824z
and will the hydrogen revolutionaries adopt click and collect once the taxeaters have been exhausted? Stay tuned folks while 8 track and cassettes VHS and Beta etc etc duke it out for the one true light and the way to our pitiful wallets.
Hydrogen is already compromised by an explosion at a refuelling station.
I can’t see growing the way it would need to.
Reminds me of the 1970s California gas rationing days when we could only buy gas on even days. At every gas station there were always lines going out into the street and down the block.
That was brought to you by the peanut farmer numpty that created mortgage interest rates as high as 16%.
I think you’d find that both those things happened because of supply and demand.
(Unless you believe the former Navy nuclear engineer was running the entire world.)
Will they need emergency psychological help to overcome that humiliation?
Do Tesla charging stations only charge Tesla cars? If so, how are other EVs catered for with roadside charging?
When on extended road trips, most non-Tesla EVs seek out public (often free-to-use) charging stations that have been put up across the country at places such as public libraries, outside government office buildings, near or in civil parking structures, and in parking areas of shopping malls. I think only a small percentage of hotels and motels have these free-to-use to customers. The Web provides various means to find the locations of the public charging stations.
The issue for those EV drivers is that (1) it is rare to find such public charging stations near major travel highways and interstates, and (2) the public stations charge EVs at a much lower rate, perhaps requiring 4 hours or more (like, overnight for a long distance traveler) to get a full recharge.
There are rumors that the public stations will be upgraded (“eventually”) to provide charging rates equivalent to Tesla Superstations, but don’t hold your breath on that.
Oh, and some business entrepreneurs have seen the opportunity and are in the process of selling EV charging at their own stations at a very premium price in places of high demand. I would not be surprised to see this happen soon at Kettleman City, CA.
I saw research some time ago by Tesla that stated that Teslas were 5th cars in family in the USA.
So the families in California have several options for their virtue signaling.
Another piece of interesting research was that in Sweden , 70% of EV owners still kept an ICE car.
To me this suggests little faith in EVs even though they are heavily subsidized to the extent that they are cheaper to buy than ICE vehicle with among other things no sales tax and free parking and freedom from tolls.
Many comments touched on, but did not name, the queuing theory that is behind the waiting in line problem. An explanation is here:
https://www.thoughtco.com/queuing-theory-4171870
The core of the problem is interarrival time. Poisson statistical distribution provides one tool for analysis. Alternatively, there is the Exponential distribution. I recall from either the ClimateGate papers or WUWT comments on them, that climate scientists treated someone who could do linear regression as a deity. Imagine
how they would deify someone who could do queuing analysis.
I never knew that my wait in line at the post office was explainable via queuing theory . . . I have always analyzed it as being due to either (a) too few postal workers manning the service windows, and (b) the workers that ARE manning those windows moving slower that molasses on a cold day.
Because all these people still haven’t found a way to avoid going to the post office.
Try to find another way to send/receive certified or registered mail, as well as many other functions not available via electronic means.
‘The Revolution has no need of Queuing Analysis savants.
OK but how do you explain waiting time in huge airports, on the order of 100 times the plane arrival rate?
Why isn’t the wait time at security of more than 10 minutes?
Is there any place where people should wait less than airports?
Can you safely turn a fleet of Tesla into stackable 1meter x 1meter cubes? Which is the real reason why Elon is launching Tesla’s into space, and has developed a re-useable rocket booster technology. /doh
Hot news!
I just happened upon an article on The Development of the Modern Motor Car: “In the electric car, it is possible that those driven by petrol may, at some future time, find a serious competitor. The electric broughams used in towns exhibit the high state-of efficiency obtained by the employment of this propulsive agent, and the absence of noise and smell. Their future, however, depends upon the discovery of much more efficient accumulators or upon the establishment throughout the country of electrical charging stations, and until such time as one or other of these conditions is fulfilled their use must be limited to towns or the neighbourhood of works where their supply of electricity can alone be replenished.”
Dated January 1906.
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/57055/57055-h/57055-h.htm#Page_13
Who’d have thought that just fifty years later the Rural Electrification Associations would have run wires out to farms and country homes.
US figures:
cars 276,000,000
households 130,000,000
gas stations 168,000
pumps 1,300,000
Can the migration to EVs be a very slow process? I doubt it. Charging stations aren’t cheap, and absent sufficient demand for a long period probaly means they won’t be installed in many locations. Here are some ‘current’ problems:
Using standard household current and voltage, you get two or three miles of driving for every hour of charge. That won’t work for most in the US, where we live in the ‘burbs, work in the city, and have multiple errands to and from work. A supercharger can cost a thousand dollars or more just for installation, assuming you have a place for it. Unless it is included in financing the car, that could be difficult for many to swallow.
When you consider house renters, apartment renters, travelers, temporary needs, etc., you cannot escape the need for almost as many charging stations as we have gas stations; as many chargers as we have gasoline pumps. There were 49.3 million people driving on trips of 50 miles or more during Thanksgiving (over 100 miles roundtrip. Does Grandma have a supercharger at her house?) They need about 167,000 more sites, and 1,300,000 chargers before the only inconvenience is the charging time. At the very least, Tesla has got to enter into an agreement with a major service station chain to install a few superchargers at every station. And they’ve got to do it quickly. Otherwise, they will never be competitive with fossil fueled vehicles in the marketplace. The typical person is not going to buy an EV unless he sees a lot of charging locations. Having to spend more time to recharge a battery than fill a gas tank is bad enough. Make a him drive an extra ten miles to do it would be the straw to break Tesla’s back.
This is a huge issue.
You need more charging stations than gas stations as the time to charge is slower than a refill of gas.
Stevek: You need more charging stations than gas stations as the time to charge is slower than a refill of gas
You certainly need more places in general to charge than gas stations to support the same number of cars, but a lot of charging can take place at home (for those who live in a house with an car accessible outlet) or work (for the few workplaces that have set up charging areas for their employees) – so that take cares of a lot of the “extra” places to charge. Probably doesn’t bring the number down to exactly the same number as gas stations, but probably brings it down to a number that isn’t too unfeasible.
jtom: The typical person is not going to buy an EV unless he sees a lot of charging locations
Depends on what you think the typical person’s needs are, and whether or not you are including hybrids in the term EVs. The typical commuter that typically drives well within the driving range of an EV, could well consider buying one (particularly a hybrid one) even if there are only a few charging locations – as long as they can charge from home. My own commute (which probably is fairly typical in my locality) is a prime example. While I don’t own an EV (too expensive, IMO, even with OPM subsides), an EV would easily get me to and from work with energy to spare on a typical day. A bitterly cold winter’s day would be the biggest potential challenge for an all electric (winter is a killer on EV range). A hybrid, on the other hand, would easily handle that challenge.
One EV is basically equivalent to one house. Now having most EVs plugged in at night can a typical residential neighbourhood electrical infrastructure handle the power required. Yes at night power requirements of a typical residence is reduced but I suspect not enough to make a difference
No, not an issue because you don’t have to stand by the car holding the cord. They put the chargers at the mall parking lot near the food court instead of out by the freeway, because they can.
We would never have bought an EV if we didn’t first work out a plan to keep it charged. It’s a bit challenging to do on 120v, but now that we have a 240v charger it’s just not an issue.
Obviously it’s not going to work for everyone. Many of the young people I know find buying car insurance to be the biggest hurdle to owning *any* car, rather than the cost of fuel or energy or even buying the car.
A computer scientist told me that a queue will almost always be close to empty or very long. I’m not sure the reason but my experience is that this is true. This applies to grocery stores, bank lines, and seems charging stations as well. I think it is because supply often doesn’t line up with demand.
Almost universally, one cannot design any facility or service organization for peak demand (that may occur, say, 5% of the time) because then the other 95% of the time the facility or service is over-designed and the associated excess resources are being wasted.
Similarly, one cannot design any facility or service organization for minimum demand (that may occur, say 5% of the time) because then the other 95% of the time the facility or service is under-designed and the customers get turned off, even greatly upset, by the wait time and inconvenience, and will then look to alternatives (i.e., shop elsewhere).
Our local Tesco Petrol station is never empty during the day, I usually have to wait for at least on car in front even mid mornig & mid week. Weekends are far worse.
I’ve joined many a medium-sized queue in my lifetime.
Yes, and that medium-sized queue I’d hazard to guess either moved quickly and became a small queue or it moved slowly and became a large queue. rarely do they ever stay a medium queue for very long. which is the point Stevek’s computer scientist pal was likely making. Queues either efficiently handle the incoming traffic (in which case they run small/nearly empty) or they don’t (in which case they backup rather quickly until another queue opens up to help handle the excess)
Clearly, petrol as an energy carrier is superior to the battery. All electric will only fill a niche in the transport market, e.g. short, frequent town journeys. For longer journeys the hybrid is the way to go.
What’s the comparison of repair costs between an ice car, hybrid and EV?
Even if we overcome all of the engineering problems associated with charging EV’s, their owners are gonna discover they’ve been caught in a bait and switch. As the numbers of EV’s grows and gas driven cars declines, state and federal governments will not be able to resist a nice fat fuel tax.
Or even a mandatory builtin GPS spy system to determine how much road was taken.
EVs are not a solution to climate change, their carbon footprint is larger than gasoline cars, due to the energy intensity making the battery, this is the EV’s dirty little secret,
EVs with tax credits also weaken the tax base, taking away from fighting climate change or doing anything else.
Maybe. Show me the math.
Arab oil embargo of the 70s meets California stupid.
I doubt the car industry execs who are spending many billions on EVs, EV battery plants, and new models will notice this fundamental flaw.
Does “fast charging” degrade battery life? I have read where it does on a smaller scale (cell phones.)
“Does “fast charging” degrade battery life? I have read where it does on a smaller scale (cell phones.)”
I assume so. Battery pack monitoring, continuous input current adjustment, and a combination of active and passive cooling of the batteries helps quite a bit.
Subsidies tell the whole story.
https://www.nber.org/digest/jun19/w25771.shtml
Electric cars are a failed design more so than a failed concept. Like a cell phone they need the ability to run all day before needing a charge. We don’t have that technology yet so they are basically a waste of money.
May people will be sorry when they have a paper weight in 7 years and the batteries no longer charge.
One reason electric cars are a failed concept is the reason people buy them. They believe they are helping with climatic change. They are not helping. They are brainwashed by the TV.
“Electric cars are a failed design more so than a failed concept. Like a cell phone they need the ability to run all day before needing a charge. We don’t have that technology yet…”
Sounds a lot like a failed concept if the technology doesn’t exist.
It’s not the concept of an electric car per se that fails, it’s the battery that powers it that is the stumbling block.
My EV is 7 years old and the battery holds a charge as well as it ever has.
I was there… and here is what I observed:
On Black Friday I stopped to charge my Model S at the Kettleman City Supercharger at 4:00pm with zero wait. This particular site is large – 40 stalls and a small Tesla store with restrooms and coffee. Two days later on Sunday at 3:00pm, I used this Supercharger again with no waiting. In fact over the last year I’ve charged there 21 times and I’ve never waited in a line. The In-N-Out down the street is another matter though!
I appreciate the focus on data at WUWT, so here are some details to work with: My 2016 Model S averages 290 Wh/mi (and I don’t try to drive efficiently as a practice), my overnight energy cost is 12 cents per kWh (SCEdison), so it cost 3.5 cents per mile (for energy) if I charge at home. To compare with gas, the Mobil station at Kettleman is charging $4.53/gal today, so my car is achieving 130 mpg on a relative cost basis. However I normally don’t charge at home, the car has lifetime free supercharging, and as a result I’m saving about $5,000 per year compared to the SUV I drove before. Apparently Tesla charges 28 cents per kWh for most of the customer base in the US. The warrantee on the 75 kWh battery is 8 years with unlimited miles. I have driven over 100,000 miles in two years and the range has dropped from 250 mi (new) to 234 mi (current). On the issue of taxes, I received a $7500 rebate on my Federal return, I paid $7516 in sales tax, and I pay about $700 annually to register the car in CA. The high sales tax and registration are true for any expensive car here of course. The Federal rebate has dropped to $1,875/car for Tesla currently.
It’s hard to justify a Model S or X on an economic basis. I suspect a Model 3 or Y might be a money saver but it all depends on your driving habits. Elon’s constant pandering to the global warming cult is disappointing, but I have to say this car has been the best purchase I have ever made. When I get on the freeway in LA, I engage autopilot and then have the car drive the next 150-180 miles autonomously to Kettleman City or Harris Ranch. It’s an amazing product.
Excellent real-world input and hard numbers. Thanks.
If your Tesla uses 290 Wh/mile, its mpg-e is 115 to 119 (depending on which formula you use), not 130. If you pay 12 cents/kWh, the cost to drive is indeed 3.5 cents/mile exclusive of any “gas tax replacement” fees. I’m sure you’re aware that you drive much more than most people.
Battery technology could change, if politicians were open.minded, or indeed people?
Aluminium-Air technology has long attracted attention due to its cheap, lightweight and high-energy nature. Aluminium is the most abundant metal on Earth and is easy to handle, store and is safe as a way of storing electrical energy.
A Métalectrique power cell is actually quite simple. A piece of Aluminium is in contact with a special electrolyte. This electrolyte reacts with the metal on the negative end and on the positive end, air reacts with the electrolyte. When those two reactions are combined, aluminium is transformed into hydrated alumina and electrons are transferred from the second layer, through the conductor, ready to power a device. After use, the hydrated alumina can be reprocessed by smelting it, recovering the water and oxygen as it forms fresh aluminium. This cycle can be used over and over again. Aluminium-Air technology has long attracted attention due to its cheap, lightweight and high-energy nature. Aluminium is the most abundant metal on Earth and is easy to handle, store and is safe as a way of storing electrical energy.
A Métalectrique power cell is actually quite simple. A piece of Aluminium is in contact with a special electrolyte. This electrolyte reacts with the metal on the negative end and on the positive end, air reacts with the electrolyte. When those two reactions are combined, aluminium is transformed into hydrated alumina and electrons are transferred from the second layer, through the conductor, ready to power a device. After use, the hydrated alumina can be reprocessed by smelting it, recovering the water and oxygen as it forms fresh aluminium. This cycle can be used over and over again.
https://www.metalectrique.com/aluminium-air-systems
While I am hopeful for a replacement for Li-ion battery technology, I am skeptical of the Aluminum-air idea from a mobile-solution perspective.
So a driver consumes / converts the aluminum into hydrated alumina. …and then?
Then you whip out your mobile smelter?
Grandma then lifts the expended battery pack onto the stack at the levy, installs a new one?
Station attendant? Some automated process?
Where is this smelting occurring? How are the expended packs transported to the smelting facility? Are fresh cells made at the same facility? How are they transported back to the levy? To one’s home? Is there danger of spilling the liquid electrolyte during this very regular change?
Electric, diesel, gasoline, and LNG can all be distributed and refilled (they each have their precautions and drawbacks). Does Al-air have a distribution & refilling capability?
ALuminum-Air is currently mostly used to power weapons systems, as far as I know.
Dang, I saw this too late. I own an EV but not to save the planet; got it strictly out of curiosity during Think’s bankruptcy sale. I know so much about EVs, but I’m afraid I missed the party. LOL
No way to extinguish battery fire with water – water thats upholding electric power supply. Special fire extinguishing foam is the only way.
In an underground car park there’d be needed an explosion save extra room to install e-mobile charging points.
Licensing of underground car park charging points is up to the local fire brigade: very special / crucial.
No way to extinguish battery fire with water – water thats upholding electric power supply. Special fire extinguishing foam is the only way.
In an underground car park there’d be needed an explosion save extra room to install e-mobile charging points.
Licensing of underground car park charging points is up to the local fire brigade: very special / crucial.
https://youtu.be/JGaBlygm0UY