Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to the United Nations, waiting until the end of 2020 is not an option, the crisis has to be addressed now.
U.N. warns world not doing nearly enough to avert climate catastrophe
UPDATED ON: NOVEMBER 26, 2019 / 8:23 AM / CBS/AP
Geneva — Countries have procrastinated for too long and need to begin making steep cuts to their greenhouse gas emissions immediately, or risk missing agreed targets for limiting , a senior United Nations official said Tuesday. The appeal by Inger Andersen, who heads the U.N. Environment Program, came days before governments gather in Madrid for an annual climate change meeting.
“We need quick wins to reduce emissions as much as possible in 2020,” Andersen said, as her agency published its annual “emissions gap” report showing the amount of planet-heating gases being pumped into the atmosphere hitting a new high last year, despite a near-global pledge to reduce them.
Current national pledges would leave the world 5.8 Fahrenheit warmer by 2100 than pre-industrial times, with dramatic consequences for life on Earth, the U.N. agency said, adding that getting the world back on track to limit the increase to 2.7 degrees (1.5 Celsius) would require a fivefold increase in measures pledged so far.
Even if the current pledges are met, the U.N. said it “would cause mass extinctions” and leave “large parts of the planet uninhabitable” by 2100.
…
This latest warning is a follow on from UNEP’s 1989 warning that entire nations would be wiped off the face of the Earth if CO2 emissions were not brought under control by the year 2000.
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These extinction rebellion people should watch this George Carlin clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c&t=399s
JPP
The key to their alarm rests on the Greenhouse Effect (GHE) and their “guess” on climate sensitivity. Let’s be clear — EVERYONE is guessing! There’s no clear-cut way to test their guesses. Skeptics guess on the low end. Dick Lindzen guessed it might be as low as 0.3C. One 2016 paper by an Alarmist guessed it might be as high as 13C per doubling of CO2. Even Gavin Schmidt couldn’t go that high.
I used to be a fan of the GHE, for nearly 40 years. It makes a certain amount of sense. It was supposed to be why Earth is not frozen and why Venus is sizzling hot at the surface despite its high albedo.
But even many of the skeptics ignore the very real possibility that the GHE does NOT apply at all.
I challenge anyone to understand the following statement and to insist that the GHE is the significant force in baseline temperatures for Earth and Venus:
The deeper the atmospheric column, the higher the temperature at the bottom of that column. The lapse rate does NOT stop working just because there is no GH gas!
And on the flip side, if we insist that the difference between the effective temperature (T_e) and the actual surface temperature (T_0) is caused entirely by the GHE, we would need a CO2 climate sensitivity of 26.55C per doubling of CO2, and this truly would show up in the climate record, if it were true. With our Holocene CO2 increase from 180 ppm to 360 ppm, we most assuredly did not witness a temperature increase of 26.55C.
My paper, “Thick atmosphere as a thermal reservoir,” explains this in more detail.
Hi Rod.
Have you watched the you tube video by Michael and Ronan Connolly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfRBr7PEawY
I think you would like it.
They know a lot about lapse rate.
regards
John
I suggest paleo climate reconstructions set a limit on how much warming anthropogenic CO2 could cause. For example, take the Cretaceous, 1700ppm CO2, 4C warmer. We’re never going to burn enough fossil fuel to produce an atmospheric CO2 level anything like 1700ppm.
The “greenhouse” effect is easily proven false. Each year the most powerful”greenhouse” gas cycles up and down over a wide range. For example in 2018 it ranged from 17mm in January up to 21.89 in July then cycled down again. The outgoing long wave radiation cycled in phase that is highly POSITIVELY correlated. This table provides the data from NASA satellites:
Mnth TPW- OLR
Jan 17.04 236.8
Feb 17.29 236.5
Mar 17.73 237.9
Apr 18.19 238.7
May20.40 240.6
Jun 20.92 243
Jul 21.89 243.9
Aug 21.04 243.4
Sep 20.54 242.2
Oct 19.68 239.5
Nov 18.93 237.1
Dec 18.91 236.5
As water vapour goes up OLR goes up. As water vapour comes down OLR comes down.
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg0eoxeRHedx24wc5
As the chart displays, the two variables are highly correlated and the range is not trivial.
The “greenhouse” gas theory does not past this basic test – it is invalidated. It is a fairy tale for gullible adults and children alike.
So let’s see these lying shameless idiots bastardizing science want to be our enelected, unaccountable leaders, hmmm can’t see what could go wrong with that. Always remeber if you want the worst possible outcome let the government take care of it!
So very true. The opposite of liberty is Big Government. The opposite of Free Market Capitalism is Crony Capitalism, Socialism, Communism and/or Collectivism.
annual “emissions gap” report showing the amount of planet-heating gases being pumped into the atmosphere hitting a new high last year, despite a near-global pledge to reduce them.
She then goes on to request five times as many pledges. Yup, let’s take something obviously not working and do five times as much of it. Simples.
What the heck ever happened to good old honest begging?
It used toe be, “Alms for the poor. Alms for the poor.”
Now they are making up all sorts of cockamamie alms-begging excuses that warrant not a second thought whether to extend charity.
These beggars are E-effen-squirrel-brained-OMG-butt-tootlin’-ice-cream-cone-meltin’ NUTS!
Throw ’em an acorn and move on.
I wonder if these UN alarmists lose sleep at night, pacing about, fretting over the inevitable catastrophes to come. I seriously doubt it.
They have been predicting more droughts/desertification without any observable corroboration – in fact the Earth is greening from the increase in CO₂ – so no areas will become “uninhabitable” except the expected inundation of some lowlands as icefields continue to melt as they always do in an interglacial period.
The obvious corollary to some land being lost to a warmer climate is that some previously uninhabitable regions will become amenable to settlement.
Shout it from the rooftops, in Beijing!!!
“The World is burning ! The World is burning !
To save the Planet, send money to the WWF !”
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/11/leo-dicaprio-and-wwf-paid-for-the-amazon-fires/
If I didn’t know any better, I would think the Media are hyping up the climate story line in preparation of an upcoming world climate jamboree. I wonder how many freeloaders will attend this one?
The BBC are now on full climate alarm mission, not a news bulletin passes by without the false pictures of disaster perfected by the David Attenborough school of sham reporting. Yesterdays was very impressive, we had fires in the Amazon, walrus and polar bears in danger of extinction, Paris climate agreement failures, Venice being flooded due to climate change and on it went.
At some point when the snow has built up to the point they can’t actually get into the studio, they will start to reflect on their errors. Until then, we just have to sit back and play climate alarm bingo every time the news comes on and laugh. The BBC don’t fully realise, just how unexpectedly entertaining they have become.
Don’t look at the science, show us the money now!
Ahhh well if we’re all going to die anyway we might as well make life comfortable with cheap coal fired power until then .
Not sure why. The biggest increase in life , ever, on the planet was during the Cambrian period when for tens of millions years the CO2 levels were 15x today’s levels.
“Emissions gap” Is that like the Doomsday gap in Dr Strangelove? Or the mineshaft gap?
The scare of the man-made cancer pandemic has been told in studious detail by author Edith Efron in ‘The Apocalyptics” a paperback of some 800 pages. It is near-essential reading for those who wish to understand the mechanisms and motivations of these people, who are and we’re mostly scientists appointed by government departments, exposed to advertising dollars. The hook covers the end of the scare, marked in my reading by several of the main players turning from the scare side to the “we were wrong” side. Like the global warming weak link that CO2 is a control knob, the cancer scare had it’s weak link. It was undue reliance on animal tests as a predictor of human response to treatment and disease.
I cannot recommend this book more highly. Geoff S
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/25/the-cia-documents-the-global-cooling-research-of-the-1970s/
“The western world’s leading climatologists have confirmed recent reports of a detrimental global climate change. The stability of most nations is based upon a dependable source of food, but this stability will not be possible under the new climatic era. A forecast by the University of Wisconsin projects that the earth’s climate is returning to that of the neo-boreal era (1600- 1850) – an era of drought, famine and political unrest in the western world.
“Countries have procrastinated for too long …” But what if procrastination turns out to have been the better response all along? The only way to tell for sure is to wait and see. Meanwhile, the planet is turning greener and the atmosphere perfectly models its own heat-engine performance for all to see.
claims of Koala extinctions in Aus after the fires are utter crap
yes the poor lil buggers have died/ been horribly burnt, as have so many other animals birds and farm animals too.
curious thing they talked of culling populations of nsw and Kangaroo Island Koalas due to over crowding not so long ago
and stuffed if I know how theyve managed the endangered tag either..
theyre simply NOT.
I predict that COP25 will be a Doomster Fire. Popcorn time.
Just read the UN gap report end to end
very interesting even if it is embarrassing to read, I would love to find the time to` extract` some direct quotes and re-lay them out, it would scare everybody that reads it to think that the UN had just written such stuff.
I think it could be reduced slightly in length, probably down to about 1 (that`s `one`) page
Predictability.
For me Science is about predictability, making a testable statement.
UNfortunately (UN is intentional) no one is taken to task for their failed predictions. I just re-read the Wattsup posting on failed predictions (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/30/some-failed-climate-predictions/) .
The fact that the media is not interested in challenging this group publishing these threats, provides a clear message of the media’s purpose.
From the article: “Current national pledges would leave the world 5.8 Fahrenheit warmer by 2100 than pre-industrial times, with dramatic consequences for life on Earth, the U.N. agency said, adding that getting the world back on track to limit the increase to 2.7 degrees (1.5 Celsius) would require a fivefold increase in measures pledged so far.”
Well, the UN and Obama gave China and India and the developing nations a pass on reducing their CO2 output, so they do not have to limit their CO2 production at all.
The rest of the developed world is complying, more or less, with the Paris Climate Accord, although the compliance appears to be moving some nations towards bankruptcy, and even the United States, is reducing its CO2 output by switching from coal powerplants to natural gas powerplants.
So my advice, if you think it is necessary to reduce CO2 output, is to negotiate with those nations who are unrestricted in their CO2 output. Tell China and India to cut back. No, that won’t happen. So, they are screwed.
From the article: “Even if the current pledges are met, the U.N. said it “would cause mass extinctions” and leave “large parts of the planet uninhabitable” by 2100.
Ridiculous !
They make predictions like this even though they don’t have any idea how much net heat CO2 adds to Earth’s atmosphere. CO2 may add NO neat heat to the Earth’s atmosphere after feedbacks are included, and there is not one scientist on this planet that can prove otherwise at this time. So making a claim that the Earth’s temperature will be such and such is just so much speculation masquerading as facts.
And to claim that CO2 will make the Earth uninhabitable is criminal given the anxiety some people are feeling over the climate change propagada, and given how little we actually know about this subject.
This UN official is yelling “Fire!” in a theater when there is no fire, and no evidence of fire. Criminal. People are going to suffer because of this lie. Criminal.
We hit record emissions for 2019 and will again in each of the next 5years, was that not the plan?
I think Loydo, Griff and the UN were probably the only gullible ones who thought the plan involved any actual emission reduction 🙂
I’ve always wondered how these emissions per country are calculated. Do you think the UN knows about my 45 year old gasoline powered lawn mower? I could be in real trouble…
“Do you think the UN knows about my 45 year old gasoline powered lawn mower? I could be in real trouble…”
They do now! 🙂
The rise of every major civilization during the Holocene was marked by temperatures higher than current. Humans have no fur and sweat on all skin surfaces. We are clearly warm temperature creatures. The present climate research funding levels should be directed toward discovering what causes glacial periods and how we can predict the next one. That is the real threat, not increased growing seasons and agricultural production.
It’s the call for Mass Extinction indulgence payments….from your pocket.