Two major storms impacting the nation this week

Guest post by Paul Dorian,

1The latest satellite image of the powerful storm over the eastern Pacific which will have a major impact on Oregon and California over the next 24 hours or so. This same storm will then take a trek across the nation in coming days and potentially produce significant ice and snow this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Image courtesy College of DuPage, NOAA GOES-17

Tuesday 1:45 PM (ET)

*Two major storms impacting the nation this week*

Overview

One major storm is bringing heavy snowfall to parts of the Rocky Mountains and central Plains and another is about to slam into the west coast of the US.  Heavy snow from the first storm continues across the Rockies and has stretched into the central Plains and it’ll make a push into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday.  This same system will then head eastward and drag a strong cold front across the Mid-Atlantic/NE US tomorrow evening and the winds will become quite strong with gusts past 40 mph. The second major storm will rapidly intensify before making landfall later tonight near the California/Oregon border and it will bring heavy rain and damaging winds to coastal sections and tremendous snows to inland higher elevation locations of the Sierra Nevada mountain range where the snow will be measured in feet over the next few days. This second storm will cross the nation and arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US this weekend where there will be a lot of cold air and accumulating ice and snow could be the result in interior sections.

2NOAA’s “weather warnings map” is full of colors – not a good sign – ranging from hurricane warnings off the west coast with storm #2 to blizzard warnings in Colorado from storm #1. Map courtesy NOAA

Initial storm

One of the biggest snowstorms ever recorded for November in parts of Colorado continues to pound away in the Rocky Mountains and into the central Plains. More than 20 inches has been reported in Boulder and this storm is likely to end up in the top 5 of all-time for such places in Colorado as Boulder, Fort Collins and Loveland where final accumulations of 1-2 feet are likely.  The snow has pushed into the central Plains (e.g., Nebraska) and will move northeastward on Wednesday into the Upper Midwest where accumulations will also be significant.  The upper-level low associated with this storm will then take a turn to the east and trek over the Great Lakes and into the NE US.  A strong cold front will be dragged through the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Wednesday evening as the surface low slides by to the north.  Winds will pick up noticeably ahead of the front passage later tomorrow from a southwesterly direction and then are likely to gust past 40 mph from the northwest on Wednesday night and Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.  There will be a few showers associated with this frontal system later tomorrow, but the winds will be the bigger story.

3A powerful storm will slam into Oregon/California later tonight and Wednesday resulting in heavy rain and damaging wind gusts for coastal sections and tremendous snowfall across the Sierra Nevada. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Second storm

A major storm is now intensifying off the west coast of the US and it will become quite a powerhouse by the time it makes landfall later tonight near the Oregon/California. This ocean storm will produce significant rain and damaging winds for coastal sections of Oregon and California over the next 24 hours with hurricane-force gusts on the table.  Heavy mountain snows are likely inland across the Sierra Nevada mountain range where snow will be measured by the foot over the next couple of days.

4The upper-level low associated with the incoming Pacific Ocean storm will pull out of the western US and heads towards the Northern Plains. At this point, this feature will run into an “atmospheric roadblock” and be forced to slide southeast allowing for cold air to build-up in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US this weekend. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

The deep upper-level low associated with this intensifying storm will take a trek from the western US to the Northern Plains over the next few days, but at that point, it’ll run into a “atmospheric roadblock” in the atmosphere as high pressure ridging builds across southern Canada and this will force a slide to the southeast.  The blocking to the north and the change in path to the southeast will be critical as it will allow for cold air to extend southward into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US this weekend before the system arrives.  This all could result in significant ice and/or snow for interior locations at the onset of the weekend storm in the late Saturday/early Sunday time frame before a possible changeover to plain rain on Sunday – at least in some sections. In addition, once this storm reaches the Mid-Atlantic coastline late in the weekend, it could pull in enough cold air from the northwest to allow for a changeover from rain back to snow in many spots.

5Cold air will be in place this weekend across the Mid-Atlantic/NE US when precipitation arrives from the second major storm to impact the nation this week potentially leading to some significant ice and/or snow across interior sections. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Stay tuned…the last week of November will be very active for much of the nation and it looks like December will get off to quite an interesting start.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian

Perspecta, Inc.

perspectaweather.com

76 thoughts on “Two major storms impacting the nation this week

  1. With a modest El Niño underway, and a solar minimum reducing NH winter UV insolation it’s gonna be an epic NH winter.

    • Joel O’Bryan

      “…it’s gonna be an epic NH winter.”

      Well, Mr O’Bryan: if I were you, I would be honest, and silently perform a posteriori a ‘s/NH/CONUS’ over your comment.

      We in Northern Germany are way away from any epic winter. Way!
      Our last serious winter was in 2010 .

        • Sheri

          No idea where you live, but where I live, we didn’t see more than a few cm snow per winter in the last years, and the thermometer went below -5 °C for one or two days in February.

          I remember winters where we had no day above -10 °C.

          We didn’t see this fall any NOAA forecast like fo 2017/18 and 2018/19, predicting for Europe an extremely mild winter (which then happened), but the probability to suddenly experience a harsh winter like in CONUS is equal to zero.

          • Where I live there has been 18 inches of snow thus far, expecting more this weekend and below -17C this week for a couple of nights. Yes, it’s been a while since it was 3 or 4 feet of snow that lasted all winter, and -40C/F many times, but the snow has increased over the past couple of years. There was a drought during the low snow years that is now ended. I expect colder and snowier will occur.

            In 2014, it dropped to -29C for a week in November and killed hundreds of trees, including some of mine that were 30 years old. It went from being in the 40’sF (4C) to the -29C overnight. Unusual, yes. But it was only November…..

          • Sheri

            Thx for the convenient reply.

            These two graphs should tell you about some little differences between CONUS and Europe:

            1. Comparison 1900-2019
            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OZXjeZ00Ew5_JDZWVA2NE2kIooprQBY5/view

            2. Comparison 1900-2019
            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1scoqG9Ezl0btBFUoE5nopYMOadGqfMu0/view

            In (2) you see that despite the brute force attack on Southern Canada and Northern Conus at the end of January this year, the 2014 and 2010 winters were way harder for many of you.

            I hope for you all that the 2019/2020 edition won’t behave like these two!

            Rgds
            J.-P. D.

            Data source
            ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/

  2. Wait a minute, I thought climate change meant heat, nice dry heat? Why snow, rain and wind?

    Has greta and al bore lied to me?

        • nw sage

          “So it is always either warm or ‘not warm’ Get it?”

          Not quite. During the last winter in January, it was colder in Minnesota than in Montana when you simply stay on absolute temperatures.

          But if you look at departures from the mean of a period, you see that a huge amount of Montana weather stations were at 17 °C below that mean, while Cotton, MN, the coldest CONUS corner in 2019 with -49° C at the end of January, showed only 9.5 °C below the mean.

    • Sunny, you need to catch up. They used to call it Global Warming until it got cold also, then they changed it to Climate Change, which can be either hot or cold. Now people that like to ski or lay on a beach always have someplace to go. AlGore and Greta arranged this. Happy Thanksgiving.

        • Climate ”apocalypse” is now about as far as it can go. Oh and by the way…..every second that passes sees an unprecedented co2 level. (apart from all the other times it occurred)

        • I have a CO2 monitor in my summer house, with a window continuously open, and the readings have varied, without any humans being in the summer house, from 357ppm to 518ppm and the readings can vary by as much as 50ppm in an hour. When humans are in the summer house with the doors open the readings are dramatically higher, 1000 +, and once with 4 adults + 1 child and dog in there the alarm went off because the reading was over 2000ppm.

          I do wonder how the official reading can be so accurate even with a decimal point???????

          =

          • Eric, that’s because official readings are from True Believers, and it looks like you are wobbleing a bit.

          • Caught the tail end of an NPR reporter breathlessly telling me to look out my window and see the “Climate Change”!
            WTF?
            I looked and it just looked like yesterday.

    • You must have not gotten the memo, climate change means what they say it means when they say it, and what it meant when they said it before the same but different. Try to keep up plz

  3. Please send the rain to Australia-we need it. It will also shut the moronic Greens up. They have been banging the drum claiming the drought is caused by “climate change” in spite of the admissions from Professor Andy Pitman that there is no link between drought and climate change. Eric Worrall published the transcript of the actual comment on WUWT recently. Read it a few times-it is extremely revealing.

    The disgusting Greens have also been blaming “climate change” for the fires, which is related to a total failure of hazard management. The Aboriginals in Australia have practiced back burning for tens of thousands of years. It is green whining that has led to this utter negligence in terms of hazard reduction.

    Greenies- hang your heads in shame.

  4. At least all that mass of snow will give a phenomenal snow melt in the climate change induced hotter than hell summer. This will fill dams. So much for the endless drought that the doomsayers predicted.

    Still need this rain event for Australia.

  5. Well, I’ve been standing on my back porch spraying a can of aerosol in the air – hasn’t seemed to have an affect.

    • While holding the nozzle down, try holding a lit match near it. You’ll experience at least local warming.

      My borther-in-law (22 years younger – age 9 at the time) taught me this trick indoors. He let it spray for several seconds – enough time for me to say “Wow – you’ve learned how to waste hair spray” when he whipped out that lighter. A fireball swept across the room, up the wall, and across the ceiling.

      Scared the crap out of us! An luckily, the drapes on an adjacent wall didn’t catch fire.

      • The aerosol flamethrower you described is useful against spiders and spiderwebs.
        We once lived in a 500 year old house in England and found this method useful in cobweb infested cellars and stone corridors.
        (We were not super rich – my father was a church minister.)

  6. I have not researched this subject in depth, but my impression based on the data is that during global cooling periods there are typically more severe and more frequent storms than during global warming periods. I believe Earth is now entering a global cooling period due to very low solar activity, close to that of the Dalton Minimum.

    I reject the warmists’ hypothesis that fossil fuel combustion and global warming will cause more violent storms – the historical and recent data I have seen does not support that hypo.

    The climate extremists have proposed their non-falsifiable “wilder weather” hypothesis, wherein any change in weather is (to them) evidence of climate catastrophe – they want us to be terrified of warming, cooling, wetter, drier, windier, calmer – up, down and sideways…
    “A theory that is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific.” – Karl Popper

    I suggest that if people want to be afraid of something, be afraid of global cooling – global cooling is much more dangerous to humanity and the environment than global warming.

    • I’ve posted this before. If you have equal volumes of dry air and water at the same temperature and pressure the water will have 3000+ times more heat than air. Therefore air can’t have a significant effect on water temperatures. Storms depend on evaporating water…..I hope that helps

      • Thanks for quantifying that.
        Add the reality that CO2 is about 400 PPM…..1/2500th of the atmosphere.

    • slightly OT, but something about the sun has been nagging at me lately. I live in north central Texas–about 31 degrees, 47 minutes north latitude. Sun seems to be a lot lower than I’ve ever noticed before. Like shining through the south side window of the car while traveling east at noon time. Are any of you good folk who pay attention to such things aware of a recent change in the rotational axis tilt such that the northern latitudes are now tipped further away from the sun during winter, closer during summer?? I’ve lived around this part of the state for 56 of my 72 years, and what I’ve been currently experiencing just seems a bit odd.

      • funny you should mention that…
        I’ve noticed it’s setting further over to the left that normal too…and it moved over faster this year

        …I have no explanation as to why though

      • G’day John VC

        You might check your memory, then the date for the change from Daylight Saving Time. Just a hunch.

        Have a great Thanksgiving…..

    • I’d agree with you that cooling periods should bring about more severe weather based on simple physics. Weather is basically a heat engine, it depends on heat transfer from a “hot” source to a “cold” sink to power it. So when a hurricane spins up, its moving heat from the hot oceans to somewhere that is “cold”. Where is the heat going?

      The only way heat can escape the Earth is by IR radiation to space. So if storms are getting stronger, that would indicate more heat moving to the cold sink – escaping to space. That is, the greenhouse effect would have been somehow decreased. The greenhouse effect should reduce the outgoing heat, lowering the efficiency of the climate and thus warming it by accumulating waste heat. With lower efficiency for weather generation, storm strength is reduced with additional greenhouse effect.

      Whether it is caused by solar activity, or some other unknown process, it would be interesting to see if stronger storms precedes cooler temperatures in the future, as those storms consume the accumulated heat energy of the planet.

      • I’m beginning to think that weather of any kind is completely and utterly UNaffected by the kind of global average temperature variations of modern times. Weather is driving the climate and co2 is not driving the weather.


    • ALLAN MACRAE November 26, 2019 at 3:04 pm

      I have not researched this subject in depth, but my impression based on the data is that

      during global cooling periods there are typically more severe and more frequent storms than during global warming periods.

      I believe Earth is now entering a global cooling period due to very low solar activity, close to that of the Dalton Minimum.”

      Meteorologists have devised a tornado-like scale to assess the severity of ice storms. … Ice storms form when a layer of warm air gets sandwiched between two layers of cold air above and below. Snow forms in the upper cold zone, which then melts as it falls through the warm region.

      Dec 3, 2013

      https://medium.com › looking-up
      Ice Damage Index – Looking Up – Medium

      https://www.google.com/search?q=Sahara+ice+storms+long+notches+milled+firm+rock&oq=Sahara+ice+storms+long+notches+milled+firm+rock&aqs=chrome.

  7. Isn’t this the part were the alarmists inform us that prior to mankind burning fossil fuels, there were any bad storms?

  8. Here in the Twin Cities when a storm comes at us from the Four Corners you know it’s going to be bad.

  9. I lived on the Oregon coast for 20 years. These things are every bit as nasty as a Cat 1 and the high wins are spread out further.

  10. Central Washington State is north of the tracks, so we are in the cold and mostly dry sector.
    Sunday got up to 44°F while today, Tues, only made it to 28°.
    Most of Tuesday was 27°, with a brief burst to the 28.
    Cascade Mtns. got a little snow at > 4,000 feet.

    • Like the pigeons, stop feeding them and they go away. Cut the money to the UN and the climate-crisis™ will end. Within a few years prosaic weather will be just weather once again. Unless it gets marginally colder-er, in which case we’d be declared to be at serious risk of a glaciation crisis, unless we act now and paint everything black!

    • In terms of all going to die, the point of no return is the moment of conception. It’s all our parents’ fault.

  11. ALLAN MACRAE and A Nomaly, in my capacity as Winter Weather Program Leader in my former office I DID research “significant” storminess (admittedly subjective on my part) in the northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic using historical records including diaries, ship logs, and published works (e.g. Ludlum), and found that there was a higher frequency and much-increased severity of winter storms in the cool season during the LIA, with a noticeable increase in alternate 30-35 year periods. This was especially noted on the rising portion of the sunspot cycle, with the additional anecdotal observation that there were strong “singularity” storms near the base of many sunspot cycles, frequently just before the trough. An example of a singularity was the Jan. 1996 nor’easter. This latter observation could simply be coincidence, or it might just be random occurrence, but it seemed to stand out to me. I say beware the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, especially during an El Nino winter.

    One point I’d like to make is that, as we have rebounded from the depths of the LIA in the 17th century (when my incredibly brave and hardy ancestors came to America, one as early as 1606 with de Champlain, all of them unaware they came at a bad time for winters) and into the modern warm period, these alternating longer-period cycles are a few hundred years in duration. So, since the LIA ended toward the end of the 19th century, I believe we have another couple or few hundred years of (natural) warming to expect before we descend into another LIA. I further believe that, in these 600-800 year cycles, there are two shorter period cycles, namely a 200 year cycle (100 years warmer and 100 years cooler) and another 60-70 year period (30-35 years warmer and cooler), both of which modulate the longer-period and dominant 600-800 year cycle. It seems to me that we entered a warmer period starting about 1976, and now we are modulating toward cooler temperatures since about 2010; this actually has been our “plateau.” If my theory is correct, we may even have a decade or so during the next 20 years where it gets slightly but noticeably cooler and with more severe winters, a la 1940-1976. (This may in fact have already started a few years ago.) And, again if I’m correct, it will start getting warmer again about 2045-2050 through 2080. Add in to this mix excursions of 3-4 sigma over a decade or two, as has been seen in the proxy records (if they can be believed). Bottom line: we are going to remain warm in this Modern Warm Period for another 200-300 years until we descend into another LIA, modulated with plateaus and even slightly cooler times for a decade or three. This means the Climate Crisis Alarmists will be able to hold sway for some time to come, although no one has satisfactorily explained how the natural warming of the 19th century is no longer in effect, and why it is assumed that this natural warming has segued to or even been overwhelmed since 1950 by human-caused warming, which is supposed to become catastrophic; why are natural forcings not currently still in effect?

    • Thank you for your comment s 4caster. You wrote above:
      “If my theory is correct, we may even have a decade or so during the next 20 years where it gets slightly but noticeably cooler and with more severe winters, a la 1940-1976. (This may in fact have already started a few years ago.)”

      That forecast is consistent with my global cooling prediction written in 2002, as slightly updated circa 2013.

      The following comment is also relevant.

      Regards, Allan
      ______________________________________

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/02/18/hurricanes-climate-change-detection/#comment-2632756

      Years ago I plotted the data from this 2005 NOAA report.

      There was a decline in Category 4 and Category 5 hurricane intensity from ~1930 to 2004.

      I have found Chris Landsea’s work to be credible.

      Regards, Allan

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-4.pdf

      NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-4
      THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE UNITED
      STATES TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM 1851 TO 2004 (AND
      OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS)
      Updated August 2005
      Eric S. Blake, TPC Miami
      Edward N. Rappaport, TPC Miami
      Jerry D. Jarrell, TPC Miami (retired)
      Christopher W. Landsea, HRD Miami
      Tropical Prediction Center
      National Hurricane Center
      Miami, Florida

  12. Looking at the radar and satellites now, it looks like (yet) another fake catastrophic weather prediction. I can get a report on the ground so to speak to verify my claim of fake weather event.

    • The wet and snow from this storm were much needed. It was way too dry around here prior to this mornings snow. There were very early rains in September then the faucet turned off until this storm. Its dropped around a foot of snow, a good bit for this area. This is the first early snow on the ground since 2014.

  13. The Nino index and equatorial Pacific heat content are headed down.
    Trades are holding strong.
    Peruvian cold upwelling is holding strong.
    The perpetual warmists forlorn'”Waiting for Ninot” goes on … and on … and on …

  14. A major snowstorm has caused headaches for early Thanksgiving travelers in Colorado with feet of snow piling up in some parts of the state.

    The storm began to unfold over Colorado late Monday and intensified overnight. Most of Denver and the city’s suburbs woke up to 6 to 12 inches of snow on Tuesday with several feet falling over the nearby mountains.

    Pinewood Springs, Colorado, located near Rocky Mountain National Park, was one of the snowiest spots in the state with nearly 32 inches of snow falling as of 7 a.m. MST Tuesday.
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-wonderland-or-travel-nightmare-snowstorm-unloads-over-30-inches-of-snow-in-colorado/635282

  15. Don’t panic! This is all just ‘the weather’ and nothing to worry about.

    We’ve already had 1°C of warming. Another half a degree and we’ll be at the low end prediX projection. Given how the weather has changed in the last hundred years the difference in effects won’t be noticeable.

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