Tim Flannery Admits His 20 Years of Climate Activism are a “Colossal Failure”

h/t Chris Gilham; Tim Flannery has finally admitted his efforts have all been a big waste of time.

The gloves are off: ‘predatory’ climate deniers are a threat to our children

September 17, 2019 6.39am AEST
Tim Flannery Professorial fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne

In this age of rapidly melting glaciersterrifying megafires and ever more puissant hurricanes, of acidifying and rising oceans, it is hard to believe that any further prod to climate action is needed.

But the reality is that we continue to live in a business-as-usual world. Our media is filled with enthusiastic announcements about new fossil fuel projects, or the unveiling of the latest fossil-fuelled supercar, as if there’s no relationship between such things and climate change. 

A ‘colossal failure’ of climate activism
Each year the situation becomes more critical. In 2018, global emissions of greenhouse gases rose by 1.7% while the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere jumped by 3.5 parts per million – the largest ever observed increase.

No climate report or warning, no political agreement nor technological innovation has altered the ever-upward trajectory of the pollution. This simple fact forces me to look back on my 20 years of climate activism as a colossal failure.

Far fewer humans will survive on our warming planet

That future Earth may have enough resources to support far fewer people than the 7.6 billion it supports today. British scientist James Lovelock has predicted a future human population of just a billion people. Mass deaths are predicted to result from, among other causes, disease outbreaksair pollutionmalnutrition and starvationheatwaves, and suicide

My children, and those of many prominent polluters and climate denialists, will probably live to be part of that grim winnowing – a world that the Alan Joneses and Andrew Bolts of the world have laboured so hard to create.

Read more: https://theconversation.com/the-gloves-are-off-predatory-climate-deniers-are-a-threat-to-our-children-123594

Poor Flannery, if only he had been more persuasive, we would now all be enjoying the benefits of civilisation powered by renewable energy.

Update (EW): Andrew Bolt who is named in Flannery’s article has responded with a video which calls Flannery a crank, with examples of billions of dollars of taxpayer’s money which have been wasted because of Flannery’s “advice”.

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Mark Broderick
September 17, 2019 2:10 pm

“Each year the situation becomes more critical. In 2018, global emissions of greenhouse gases rose by 1.7% while the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere jumped by 3.5 parts per million – the largest ever observed increase.”

Yet again, no mention of China or India ?

“Mass deaths are predicted to result from, among other causes, disease outbreaks, air pollution, malnutrition and starvation, heatwaves, and suicide”

Wrong..mass deaths will occur if the world tries to implement the GND stupidity…

“This simple fact forces me to look back on my 20 years of climate activism as a colossal failure.”

For once I agree…you are a “colossal failure.” ! : )

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Mark Broderick
September 18, 2019 11:40 am

For once I agree…you are a “colossal failure.” ! : )

Its worse than you think……….

Tim Flannery Professorial fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne ……….. “Each year the situation becomes more critical. In 2018, global emissions of greenhouse gases rose by 1.7% while the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere jumped by 3.5 parts per million – the largest ever observed increase.

By my calculations, 2016 was the largest ever observed increase in atmospheric CO2 @ 3.76 ppm increase, …. with 2019 coming in 2nd Place @ 3.42 ppm increase.

And 2018 had the lowest increase during the past 5 years @ 1.55 ppm increase, …. to wit:

year .. month .. ppm ….. increase
2015 …. 5 …. 403.94 …. +2.06
2016 …. 5 …. 407.70 …. +3.76 El Niño
2017 …. 5 …. 409.69 ….. +1.99
2018 …. 5 …. 411.24 …. +1.55
2019 …. 5 …. 414.66 …. +3.42
Source: ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt

September 17, 2019 2:17 pm

Colossal liars ultimately become colossal failures.

Reply to  icisil
September 17, 2019 2:58 pm

Thank you, icisil. I enjoyed that.

And thanks, Eric, for the post.


Tim Neilson
Reply to  icisil
September 17, 2019 5:27 pm

Indeed so.

On the conservative/libertarian website Catallaxy Files he’s often called “Flim Flammery”.

Komrade Kuma
Reply to  icisil
September 17, 2019 6:40 pm

The only ‘business as usual’ in this whole area is the look at me, look at me, self promoting BS that Flim Flannery et al utter every time they open their gobs. I am waiting for Flimmy to call ‘ENDLESS DROUGHT’ so Gaia has another opportunity to drop him on his useless, fat academic arse again like last time.

Reply to  Komrade Kuma
September 18, 2019 3:07 am

he mighta learnt a bit…hes been very quiet on that …so far

but he will be front n centre prob with the kids when the EX R media stunts are on I bet

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  icisil
September 17, 2019 6:51 pm


Hey, don’t forget the colossal failure of his predictions! It must be somewhat embarrassing after 30 years to have never gotten anything right when future-casting. He is a member of an elite group of serial failures: J Hansen, T Flannery…

Who else is worthy of the 30 Year Medal?

Rainer Bensch
Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
September 18, 2019 4:04 am

P. Ehrlich.

Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
September 18, 2019 6:51 am

Rev Camping

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
September 18, 2019 12:16 pm

Crispin in Waterloo – September 17, 2019 at 6:51 pm

It must be somewhat embarrassing after 30 years to have never gotten anything right when future-casting.

“HA”, the members of that elite group of serial failures have surely known that they have been “wrong” for all those 30 years …… so the only embarrassment is having to publicly admit it.

Admit the silliness of their claims, to wit:

The AGW Quandary.

The proponents of Anthropogenic Global Warming claim that increases in atmospheric CO2 quantities causes an increase in near-surface air temperatures which result in said AGW.

But natural world events in the Northern Hemisphere disproves their claim because as the cool Spring air temperatures start increasing to become the hot summer air temperatures the quantity of atmospheric CO2 starts decreasing and continues to decrease as the temperature increases on into the hot summer season.

And when those hot summer air temperatures start decreasing to become the cool fall air temperatures the quantity of atmospheric CO2 starts increasing again and continues to increase as the temperature decreases on into the cold winter season.

But now, is not that natural world event “bass ackward” from what the proponents of Anthropogenic Global Warming claim?

I think it is, I think it is.

The proponents of AGW claim “an increase in CO2 causes an increase in temperature”, ….. whereas in reality, … whenever there is “an increase in CO2 there is a decrease in temperature”, … or vice-versa, ….. whenever there is “a decrease in CO2 there is an increase in temperature”.

Cheers, ….. Eritas Rabuf

Bryan A
September 17, 2019 2:19 pm

Isn’t S.A. already basking in the Benefits of and Mass Economic Suicide from the wholesale embracement of exclusive unreliable renewable energy sources? (except when they’re importing power generated from Coal or Gas that is)

Reply to  Bryan A
September 18, 2019 3:08 am

big windstorms and duststorms coming to sa today/night
so there goes the birdshredder power and the pvs will all need cleaning if theyre nt too sandblasted to work at all

Paul Penrose
September 17, 2019 2:19 pm

“Our media is filled with enthusiastic announcements about new fossil fuel projects, or the unveiling of the latest fossil-fuelled supercar, as if there’s no relationship between such things and climate change.”

That’s because there isn’t any proven relationship between them, and your wild specualtions, Tim, don’t count as proof. Neither do spurious correlations or GCM output. Fossil fuels have been found “not guilty” in the court of public opinion. Only you, your friends, the collectivists seeking political power and their useful idiots, and of course, the corrupt press continue to tell the increasingly unbelievable story of future disaster brought on by our use of this miraculous fuel source.

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Paul Penrose
September 17, 2019 5:23 pm

The only “enthusiastic announcements about new fossil fuel projects” are decommissionings and delays. Renewable projects get oodles of hype. Every fossil-fuelled supercar “enthusiastic” unveiling is more than balanced by those about hybrids and all-electric.

This guy is off on some other planet.

4 Eyes
September 17, 2019 2:21 pm

He could have explained just how much the oceans have risen. All he has to do is show the unusual rise in sea levels and I’ll be convinced.

Reply to  4 Eyes
September 17, 2019 5:41 pm

But but- “Paleoclimatology data are derived from natural sources such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments.”
All that lovely proxy data and you simply want sea level rise evidence? Begone with you simpleton as these are lots of Green jobs you’re talking about here. What the Hell do you think we’re all going to do when there’s no more fossil fuel use?

Clarky of Oz
Reply to  4 Eyes
September 17, 2019 6:13 pm

Tim does not have to the BoM Australia does it for you

http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60101/IDO60101.201908.pdf page 24.

Not much movement. Some a little up some a little down.

Meanwhile our good friends in FIJI want Australia to cut down on emissions while they seem quite happy to rely on several diesel electricity generators and aeroplanes and ocean liners to bring tourist $$$ to their economy. All to fix an apparently non problem.

I could suggest a win/win. Australia and the rest of the world to stop visiting them and supplying them with fuel for their generators thus reducing our CO2 emmissions. Their own CO2 emissions will drop as a result. Who loses? The whole population that’s who. And the tides will continue to rise and fall without taking any notice of the starving humans on the little islands.

Craig from Oz
Reply to  Clarky of Oz
September 17, 2019 8:02 pm

Problem with our little pacific island friends is China.

China is not our friend.

China is our neighbour at best.

We are basically being blackmailed into giving foreign aid to prevent them seeking the same from China. That is the real big picture. Climate Change and sea levels are just the public face of ‘Giveme!’

Ross Martin
Reply to  Craig from Oz
September 20, 2019 4:43 am

You’ve hit the nail right on the head.

September 17, 2019 2:21 pm

Hello Tim Flannery, I’d like to introduce you to reality.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  markl
September 17, 2019 4:03 pm

I have to admit I’ve never heard of this Flannery here in Illinois, perhaps most of reality has never been introduced to him either. If he had just been the first person who claimed to be able to see CO2, he’d now have the UN behind him as a rising poster child for the global socialist agenda.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Pop Piasa
September 17, 2019 6:49 pm

He has been very very quiet. I think he realises how hypocritical he has been since buying his ocean front property and, somehow, losing AU$90mil in a “hot rock” thermal power plant project and stating Sydney rain will never fill dams again.

Another, “shouty activist”, is Karoly. He does not debate, he just shouts people down who opposes him.

Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia
Reply to  Patrick MJD
September 17, 2019 8:05 pm

and Wivenhoe. Let us not forget.

Jim of Wollombi
Reply to  Patrick MJD
September 17, 2019 9:43 pm

No No No

Flannery bought a property on a large river which runs into the sea. That property does not have ocean frontage. Never heard about him investing in hot rocks but I don’t think he has ever had AU$90mil to lose. The quote about Sydney rains and dams is correct.

The current Oz drought is a great opportunity to test the dam comment. Stand by for a year or so.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Jim of Wollombi
September 18, 2019 5:40 pm

No No No!

The property is beside a tidal river front (I corrected my initial claim with another post in this thread) and will be affected by sea level rises (Whenever they happen) which is the point.

I don’t think I said he invested AU$90mil and losing that. Not only was he a Govn’t adviser in a part-time job paying AU$180k p/y for a 3 day week, he was also involved at a senior level in the AU$90mil “hot rocks” geothermal power plant project which never went anywhere, in other words, AU$90mil of taxpayers money was lost on his watch.

Well, Flannery *DID* say the dams would not be full again. If you care to refute that go right ahead. In the meantime you could read up on some history;


Patrick MJD
Reply to  Jim of Wollombi
September 18, 2019 6:18 pm

Here is something for you to read;


Read both comments by “Lovestotravel”. However, the second comment is more interesting. It links to a Landline interview;

Landline – 11/02/2007: Interview with Professor Tim Flannery . Australian Broadcasting Corp

“We’re already seeing the initial impacts and they include a decline in the winter rainfall zone across southern Australia, which is clearly an impact of climate change, but also a decrease in run-off. Although we’re getting say a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas of Australia, that’s translating to a 60 per cent decrease in the run-off into the dams and rivers. That’s because the soil is warmer because of global warming and the plants are under more stress and therefore using more moisture. So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that’s a real worry for the people in the bush. If that trend continues then I think we’re going to have serious problems, particularly for irrigation.”

I have extracted this; “So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems,…”

When you click on the hyperlink you get this;

“The page you are looking for, http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s1844398.htm cannot be found. It might have been removed, had its name changed, or be temporarily unavailable.”

The ABC has “disappeared” the article from their site but not the internet.

Reply to  Jim of Wollombi
September 19, 2019 2:33 am

Patrick MJD,

Flannery did say the rain that falls won’t actually fill the dams.

Look here: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/dashboards/#/water-storages/summary/state

Aussie dams at 50% of capacity: SE Australia had a reasonable winter thankfully and hopefully the monsoon season will help, but it’s not a good situation. Current SAM indicates below average rainfall for the next few months.

And look here: https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/weeklyreports/River-Murray-Operations-Weekly-Report-11-September-2019.pdf

Paints a pretty grim picture. Read the inflow data at the end of the report.

You could say Flannery was pretty much spot on with his prediction.

Quote of the week goes to serial idiot Pauline Hanson who said on national TV, we need more dams to store water so we can put out the bushfires. I kid you not.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Jim of Wollombi
September 19, 2019 2:58 am

When you have a static water collection area as is with Sydney, and a variable rain pattern, it will fail. Modern societies rely on static systems of water collection and supply. Past societies collected water and TRANSPORTED it from where it fell to where it was needed. Incas and Romans spring to mind.

Now, modern day! What is Australia doing with water collection? Nothing. It falls and runs right out to sea. What are the Chinese doing? Building ~1400km viaducts collecting water from where it is in abundance to where it is needed.

Water waste is the problem in Australia.

Reply to  Jim of Wollombi
September 19, 2019 5:52 pm


All water collection systems are static, they’re called catchments and you are confusing transportation with distribution.

Sadly, Australia does not have a Yangtze River to tap into. The Yangtze flows are massive and the Chinese have an endless supply of cheap and expendable labour, so a project like that is achievable albeit at huge cost.

In Australia, the monsoon is seasonal, there is a sad lack of suitable storage sites and evaporation rates are around 3 meters per year. A scheme to divert water from the north had been bandied about for a hundred years but no economically viable plan has ever been produced.

Also, Townsville had almost expended its water supply earlier this year only to suffer devastating floods when they received three months rain in a week. Designing a system to cope with that is near impossible.

With regard to other aspects of wastage, much effort has been put into reducing consumption. Melbourne, for example in the mid 1990’s had a daily per capita consumption of 422 litres: the population at the time was approximately 3.5 million. Today with a population of 4.8 million daily per capita consumption is 165 litres. Do the sums…..

The Murray Darling Basin is a complete mess, with the current governments policies doing nothing to help the situation. Barnaby Joyce has a lot to answer for.

Michael of Oz
Reply to  Patrick MJD
September 18, 2019 2:13 am

He is Australia’s knock off version of elongate muck, oops Elon Musk.

Craig from Oz
Reply to  Pop Piasa
September 17, 2019 7:58 pm

Pop, if you want the Flim Flan Man to come and enlighten the good people of Illinois I am sure my fellow Australians could crowd fun a one way ticket within eight or nine seconds.

Tim is an ‘interesting’ personality. I can still remember when he was just an expert in small long dead furry animals and head of the South Australian Museum. Somehow he managed to mutate that position into one in which his ‘expert’ words on Australia’s changing climate were actively sort and worshiped.

The fact his ‘expert’ words were utter bollocks never seemed to bother people. He was always an aim high sort of doom merchant with the wiggle room of ‘I said it MIGHT, not that it WOULD’ when held to task after his deadlines of doom safely passed.

To be honest he has probably cost Australia billions over the years and has in real terms shown to be a greater threat to children’s health than 99.99% of the population, all while happily living in a rather spiffing waterfront home.

Only thing I can’t work out is if he is simply too lacking in self awareness to realise he is wrong, unqualified on the topic and making a fool of himself, or a force for evil.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Craig from Oz
September 17, 2019 9:01 pm

Thanks for catching me up! 👍

Mike Bryant
September 17, 2019 2:23 pm

Climate activism has not been a colossal failure… it has cost the world billions. Fortunately, though, common sense seems to be making a comeback in no small part due to the efforts of Anthony Watts and many others. Mr Watts was a pioneer and is a kind of unsung hero. Thank you, Anthony Watts.

robbin harrell
Reply to  Mike Bryant
September 17, 2019 5:38 pm

I’ll second that, Thanks Anthony!
I was a believer until I found WUWT. About a year of serious reading and I finally saw the light.

Greg Cavanagh
September 17, 2019 2:28 pm

“No climate report or warning…”
You’re wrong their Flannery, the initial reports and warnings made a big difference to our living standards and finances. But yea, zero difference to the average world temperature.

“… no political agreement”; Can ever do squat, so why did you expect it to?

“… nor technological innovation”; And everybody except yourself knew that changing light bulbs wouldn’t save the planet. Bla bla bla.

“… has altered the ever-upward trajectory of the pollution.” What pollution? I thought you were all about CO2 and it’ll never rain again?

September 17, 2019 2:29 pm

good grief…it’s not like the media hasn’t been trying their hardest

Every week it’s a new disease going to kill us all….swine, bird, malaria, ebola, pig….flesh eating bacteria
…every weather event…has never happened before…and global warming is going to make it all worse
click bait…..

..and “we” have to do something about it….when “we” have not caused any rise in atmospheric CO2 in ~50 years

if it walks and quacks like a scam….it’s a scam

September 17, 2019 2:31 pm

moderation take forever….. 😛

good grief…it’s not like the media hasn’t been trying their hardest

Every week it’s a new disease going to kill us all….swine, bird, malaria, ebola, pig….flesh eating bacteria
…every weather event…has never happened before…and global warming is going to make it all worse
click bait…..

..and “we” have to do something about it….when “we” have not caused any rise in atmospheric CO2 in ~50 years

if it walks and quacks like a s c a m……it’s a s c a m

September 17, 2019 2:32 pm

The drone of his alarmist rhetoric has been enormously successful at demonstrating how weak the case for CAGW really is.

John Bell
September 17, 2019 2:41 pm

That little embedded video in the story, I love how they depict C02 thru history, the way it depicts history with a leftist view of things, and they way the article is written, the way the words are crafted for an eloquent moral outrage…all as if they themselves never used and do not to this day use fossil fuels, they are unhinged hypocrites, it is appalling.

Reply to  John Bell
September 17, 2019 5:48 pm

John B – of course, it was written and presented by Australia’s best government funded, University employed propaganda experts!

September 17, 2019 2:43 pm

”This simple fact forces me to look back on my 20 years of climate activism as a colossal failure.”……
Absolutely Tim, lets see, maybe its all the failed predictions like the dams will never fill again which created a multi million dollar desalination plant mothballed. And why did you buy that mansion next to the ocean?? And you wonder why you failed?? LOL.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  aussiecol
September 17, 2019 6:52 pm

I thought it was near the ocean too, but it is not. However, it would be affected by sea level rise anyway.


September 17, 2019 2:43 pm

Professional Fellows at Institutes are not expected to be professional when unprofessionalism is the name of the Institute’s game.

What would professionalism look like anyway? It would express analytical and interpretive doubts after raising issues and educating the public on natural cycles ranging from ENSO to AMO to grouped solar cycle influences plus easy to follow measurement systems like global satellite data and Argo. Standing up to agenda science tactics with policy distortion would also be a mark of professionalism.

September 17, 2019 2:47 pm

Only a Climate Fellow can cast doom predictions of the human race while ignoring all the other failed doom predictions that came before. It’s a trademark characteristic…and a requirement for continued funding.

September 17, 2019 2:49 pm

It must cause professional laments when you see even lesser qualified activism with pigtails passing you by.

Greg Cavanagh
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 17, 2019 7:39 pm

OMG, you are so spot on.
This man had a position of authority in the Labour government and could dictate his whim with impunity.

Greta’s qualifications is that she dropped out of school, and she has already given speeches at the UN building at the age of 16 (after doing absolutely nothing at all).

Tim must be wondering what the hell?

Reply to  Greg Cavanagh
September 18, 2019 7:57 am

We may need suicide watch on a number of climate scare experts at this point.

Reply to  Greg Cavanagh
September 18, 2019 8:22 am

Funny kind of hell joke there.

Ed Zuiderwijk
September 17, 2019 2:55 pm

Ground control to fellow Tim: relax dude, you have been told porkies.

September 17, 2019 2:57 pm

It takes a pissant to use a word like “puissant.”

Mark H
Reply to  Nik
September 17, 2019 4:04 pm

Well, he does have a BA in English, so such flowery prose is unsurprising.

michael hart
Reply to  Mark H
September 17, 2019 4:25 pm

Yes, it’s quite Flannelly.

But we should probably leave the last word for Steve Mosher. Isn’t he an English graduate too?

Pop Piasa
Reply to  michael hart
September 17, 2019 5:18 pm

English Literature when I looked him up.
A wordsmith rather than a grammar technician.

Steve Z
Reply to  Nik
September 18, 2019 12:21 pm

“Puissant” is the French word for “powerful”, which Flannery could have used to equal effect, but “puissant” sounds more snobbish.

Of course, Flannery worries that the future earth may not be able to support its 7.6 billion people. If doubling CO2 would increase crop yields by 35% to 50% according to Dr. Idso’s data in a different post, maybe the Earth could support 10 or 11 billion people in the future!

John Bell
September 17, 2019 2:59 pm

Hilarious how the alarmists are always wording things differently, thinking that others just have not understood them yet, just re craft the message a bit and others will start acting and stop using fossil fuels, but of course the alarmists must keep on using fossil fuels so they can keep getting the word out to others to stop using fossil fuels. Insanity.

James A. Schrumpf
Reply to  John Bell
September 17, 2019 4:10 pm

Pretty similar to a socialist’s view of applied Big Socialism in the world so far: all that’s needed is more of other people’s money, better people running the show — or preferably, both.

J Mac
September 17, 2019 3:00 pm

Flannery: “This simple fact forces me to look back on my 20 years of climate activism as a colossal failure.”

Congratulations, Tim! Admitting you have a problem is the first critical step to recovery from AGW derangement syndrome.

September 17, 2019 3:00 pm

Can we refer to him by his true given name, which for as long as I have been aware of him, is Flim Flam Flannery 😉

Howard Dewhirst
September 17, 2019 3:20 pm

He has the CO2 numbers but avoids temperature data. Is it because he knows that this century’s 43ppm increase has (as yet) only yielded a paltry ~0.2 deg C rise compared to the previous 20 years 31ppm increase in CO2 being accompanied by 0.5 deg C increase in global average temperatures.
And he needs to apologise for all of the mothballed desalination plants that tax payers still have to keep

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Howard Dewhirst
September 17, 2019 5:39 pm

It’s not only tax payers, it’s people with water meters too that pay for these desal plants too. Everyone’s water bills went up to pay for it. Thanks Timmy!

Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia
Reply to  Howard Dewhirst
September 17, 2019 8:08 pm

and Wivenhoe. He should have the decency to apologise for that as well.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia
September 18, 2019 12:12 am

As well as the “temporary” MediCare levy increase still applied IIRC.

Grant Duke
Reply to  Howard Dewhirst
September 18, 2019 1:24 pm

I find it odd no one talks about the real evidence. So we all watch this CO2 molecule that plays a small role in the GHE, as it’s its only 0.04% of our atmosphere and only contributes to around 5% of the GHE. H2O is a molecule that is responsible for 70-90% of the heating from the GHE, and studies have shown atmospheric levels of water vapor have decreased since around the 1970s. (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/06/nasa-satellite-data-shows-a-decline-in-water-vapor/)
How or why is this possible? Its not confidently understood, but water vapor also creates clouds that increases our planets albedo. With less of the largest contributor to “global warming,” our planet is getting warmer. Talk about a conundrum.

Reply to  Andy
September 17, 2019 4:07 pm

Leftists more often than not accuse others of their own sins. His claim that “‘predatory’ climate deniers are a threat to our children,” is worrying.

Greg Cavanagh
Reply to  Scissor
September 17, 2019 7:42 pm

Do you think he might be projecting his own emotions onto his enemies? Interesting idea.

Reply to  Scissor
September 18, 2019 3:19 am

more suicidal kiddies caused BY flimflams drivel and fearmongering than the other way round
still it keeps the shrinks n pharmas in their bad biz raking it in
sure Tim’d think thats just fine

hes kept HIS kids presence very quiet
wonder what they think in honesty if they could speak

Reply to  Andy
September 17, 2019 4:25 pm

September 17, 2019 at 3:24 pm

Thanks Andy…I had missed that. The Gores, Obamas and Flannerys of this world do speak with forked tongues don’t they!

Clarky of Oz
Reply to  Andy
September 17, 2019 6:25 pm

Obama II

Gary Pearse
September 17, 2019 3:34 pm

There is not much doubt that there is neurosis level illness and worse among prominent alarmists of any kind. Normally, it is diluted and muted in the population at large and manifests itself as troubled individuals needing medical help. But what happens when the world celebrates such a pathology? They gather into a movement (and of course don’t get medical attention!). There are thousands of Flannerys out there indistinguishable from each other psychologically. This is their chance to ‘be somebody’.

Political opportunists and rent-seeking academia and crony capitalists have harnessed the sick for ulterior purposes. They’ve hyped the meme, propagandized education and spread irrational fears that are doing serious psychological damage to school children and ordinary folk.

Self-serving scientists and institutions have watched silently, happy to exploit this up until recent weeks when it dawned on two or three of the more thoughtful ones that this maddening crowd may not be so helpful after all.Things were getting out of control. The IPCC science was fallen victim to this frenzied movement being castigated by uber alarmists as too understated. Not alarmist enough The see this makes it easier for sceptics to dismiss consensus science.

I’m genuinely concerned that when the platform falls out from underneath this hive of angst as it must, there will be more to deal with than simply cleaning up the mess. I see veiled threats in blacklists à la Nature and naming names by Flannery, Greenpeace, Antifa….

September 17, 2019 3:38 pm

Flannery is right, mass deaths are going to occur, however that will be when the climate turns cold, not when it warms up a bit. If we are not very well prepared, billions will die shortly after the next ice age begins. It will begin in a few years or a few thousand years. In any case we need to start preparing now. We must also step up our game in preparing for pandemics, asteroid strikes, etc.

Mark H
Reply to  JON SALMI
September 17, 2019 4:09 pm

If the alarmists got their way and we all abandoned fossil fuels, there would also be mass deaths. The world would go from having the capacity to feed more than 10 Billion people to probably less than 4 Billion. There would be a worse short term bump though, as the infrastructure for non-fossil fueled food production is not in place. That may drop the supportable humans number down to 2 Billion for a couple of decades.

So, if he got his way, that would lead fairly directly to the deaths of 3-5 Billion people. If the alarmists want to go through with this, they must own it. They must say “We want to k*ll 3-5 Billion people”.

Reply to  Mark H
September 18, 2019 3:22 am

well they DO keep saying the populations are too big n must drop sharply
thing is the warmists always think its everyone else must go
going to be some rude surprises for many

David L. Hagen
Reply to  JON SALMI
September 17, 2019 5:06 pm

Could we generate enough global warming to prevent the next glaciation?
OR better to adapt sufficiently to prevent billions from dying from its bitter cold?

Reply to  David L. Hagen
September 17, 2019 7:18 pm

“Could we generate enough global warming to prevent the next glaciation?”

Not with any current technology. You’d probably have to build giant mirrors in space or something along those lines.

Or move the Earth closer to the Sun.

September 17, 2019 3:49 pm

Tim Flannery has never had a heap of credibility here in Oz but buying a house near the water finished off what little he had left. Australians may be stupid in his view but we recognise hypocrisy when we see it.

September 17, 2019 3:51 pm

Sounds like recycled Paul Ehrlich garbage from the 1970’s.

J Mac
Reply to  SkepticGoneWild
September 17, 2019 4:48 pm


Reply to  SkepticGoneWild
September 17, 2019 5:45 pm

Perhaps the only old guy Mosh admires.

old engineer
Reply to  SkepticGoneWild
September 17, 2019 9:12 pm

Or recycled Thomas Robert Malthus, 1798.

September 17, 2019 3:52 pm

“‘predatory’ climate deniers are a threat to our children”

Surely that is hate speech

September 17, 2019 4:07 pm

If Tim Flannery had stuck with his qualifications of Mammalogy instead of wandering about in the desert of Climate Chamge he could have improved the lives of countless kangaroos, koalas and wombats.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
September 17, 2019 7:02 pm

While roaming the deserted outback, he stumbled across ancient, fossilised, corals that are many 10’s of metres ABOVE current sea levels.

Pop Piasa
September 17, 2019 4:14 pm

Yes, ‘predatory’ climate deniers are a threat to our children.

Those who deny that climate is changing naturally, and inflict fear and guilt upon the youth (over their very humanity) by the (religious) indoctrination of unproven conjecture as fact. They count on their agenda advancing one birth at a time.

CD in Wisconsin
September 17, 2019 4:16 pm

Tim states: “…No climate report or warning, no political agreement nor technological innovation has altered the ever-upward trajectory of the pollution. This simple fact forces me to look back on my 20 years of climate activism as a colossal failure….”.

@Tim: Try as I might Tim, I could not find anyone on the Internet that sells a “The End is Nigh” sandwich board for you to wear as ponder your colossal failure and the planet’s doom. If I was any good a carpentry I would make you one myself and send it to you. You could wear it as you walk up and down the streets of Melbourne. All the better to get your message out to your fellow Aussies…if you still believe their is hope.

That leaves me wondering how many of them I could maybe sell to the climate strikers this coming Friday.
I guess I would have to find a supplier to make a bunch of them for me. I could set up a stand on a street somewhere while the Friday climate strikers are passing by. Oh what the heck, I would GIVE them away to the school-age climate strikers. I don’t necessarily need the extra income anyway. Bless their little underage hearts.

I can only guess how it must feel to be the colossal failure that you admit to becoming. I really feel for you. But I guess that’s the way you can end up when you’ve been flimflamming the people of Australia with your fear mongering narratives for the last twenty years (hence your nickname). BTW Tim, aren’t you the one that got stuck in the ice on a trip to Antarctica to highlight the “problem” of climate change?

Anyway Tim, if you really have your heart set on that “The End is Nigh” sandwich board, please let me know (the WUWT moderator has my email address). I’ll try and get my hands on one from somewhere. It will cost me a small fortune to ship to Melbourne from halfway around the world here in the upper Midwest USA. But what the heck, you deserve it. Bless you Tim.

The End was Nigh back in 2012……

michael hart
September 17, 2019 4:19 pm

My children, and those of many prominent polluters and climate denialists, will probably live to be part of that grim winnowing…”

Hey, feel sorry for his poor children. Fancy having to come home to be faced with such accusations from winnowmaster-general.

September 17, 2019 4:21 pm


“British scientist James Lovelock has predicted a future human population of just a billion people.”
The link is to an article by Lovelock in 2006.

Dear Tim, great news!!!

You’ll be mightily relieved to know that since that time, Lovelock has since recanted on his global warming alarmism. In 2016 he said: “I’m not sure the whole thing isn’t crazy, this climate change. You’ve only got to look at Singapore. It’s two-and-a-half times higher than the worst-case scenario for climate change, and it’s one of the most desirable cities in the world to live in.”

You’ll be even more relieved to know what he now thinks of the Green movement: “Well, it’s a religion, really, you see. It’s totally unscientific.”

Now, you may be aware of this turnaround, and resile from Lovelock 2016. But even so, why would you continue to quote Lovelock 2006, aware that it now fundamentally misrepresents his current position? How can we continue to rely on you as a trustworthy participant in this very important debate in which – as your side insists – the very future of mankind and life on earth is at stake?

Reply to  Hugh
September 17, 2019 5:50 pm

Lovelock’s 100th birthday was recently celebrated. https://www.lovelockcentenary.info/live-stream/

September 17, 2019 4:54 pm

Ahh yes. Good old Tim. The man who came up with the idea of carbon capture by growing lots of seaweed. I wonder how that’s going!?
The man is mental dwarf who unknowingly embarrasses himself each time his mouth opens.

September 17, 2019 5:00 pm

His background is paleontology. A field which by it’s very nature is largely speculative. Not surprising that this need for speculation has followed him into his comments on climate.

September 17, 2019 5:09 pm

Its odd that “the climate sham” — as it really is —, isn’t called out for what it is.

To whit… the Go! Climate! Go! camp has a deeply nefarious liaison with lesser nations’ central banks, the U.N., the endless panoply of makers of solar-this and windy-that, of software, hardware, grants, tax deferrals, international money funding, the Chinese, the Germans and the Koreans … to — if the orders come in — to make stuff, more stuff, and way more stuff … until the money runs out.

Politicians don their hats and lead the parade of well-wishers, miracle-promisers, sovereign fund bilkers and grand plan hucksters in the Academic and Socialized Government “leadership”. If (and as he did) General cum President Dwight D. Eisenhower urgently warned, “beware the military-industrial complex [for it has plans of its own, and they often aren’t in the public’s best interest]”, well … how exactly would one characterize the unholy alliance (dalliance?) betwixt these rah-rah interests, and the starkly banal failure of all that money to actually have turned any of the CO₂ tide from advancing? Ah… um… err… beware the …

What strains the very fetters of credulousness is reading the above, the quotes from Tim Flannery, decrying that “the problem, the abject failure” (paraphrasing) is the lack of tangible progress in stemming the CO₂ tsunami of modern civilization, regardless of how much effort has so far he and the activists have put into it.

The complaint is, “all is woe! we have plenty of advocates and grassroots organizations and international non-governmental operations openly and broadly supporting our heart-rending cause!!! But The Industry of delivering power and energy to civilizations large-and-small is inert!!! It continues in its well heeled, superficially progressive way, to ultimately do near-nil to resolve the problem!!! The fûquers cannot even invent the real technologies, or perhaps already have and are just sitting on them … that’d allow our one-view-of-the-future-that-works plan to work!!! Woe! Woe! Prostrate thyself before the golden calf! Etc.”

Which is just laughable.

Meanwhile, the profiteers have definitely profited from the sentiment. Basically modest and relatively insignificant amounts of renewable energy have been implemented and ballyhooed from on high each and every news cycle. Yet, renewable energy accounts for what … less than 1% of mankind’s power demand?

And why is anything but!!!

Because if we (or anyone, really) were to WANT to do the whole renewable-progressive-mindful energy thing, it has but one single path to implementation in a total-coverage sort of way.

TAXATION. Heavy, progressive, inexorable, implacable taxation. Taxation, taxation, taxation and taxation. More every week (I’ve always liked “1% more a week, forever”). The ramp up is planned, no entity gets a hall-pass, and noone rich or poor gets a subsidy. NO ONE. Whole planet on a stomach pump of ever increasing power.

The monies raised by taxation then would also be mandated to go into funding the entire world alt-fuel-power-energy domain. Worry not … with that kind of yearly funding (tens of trillions!), we probably could make fusion finally work, too. Aneutronic “clean” fusion as base power, and all the renewables as the almost-for-free stuff.

Just saying,
GoatGuy ✓

Patrick MJD
September 17, 2019 5:23 pm

His “activism” hasn’t been a failure, for him. He has become very well off because of it. Beach front property so not worried about sea level rise either. Don’t cry Timmy, just retire quietly and let the big boys deal with the rain, that you said would never fall again, falling on Sydney.

Reply to  Patrick MJD
September 19, 2019 2:37 am

Hi Patrick MJD,

You’d better pray for more rain, Sydney’s dams are still under 50% of capacity.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  SPM
September 19, 2019 3:42 am

Another Flannery apologist.

Reply to  Patrick MJD
September 19, 2019 5:54 pm


Why are the dams not full?????

Looks like Flannery was spot on with his prediction!!!!!

No apologies needed.

Michael Jankowski
September 17, 2019 5:27 pm

“…The gloves are off: ‘predatory’ climate deniers are a threat to our children…”

Cute. An attempt to subliminally get readers to associate “climate deniers” with “child predators.”

Clarky of Oz
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
September 17, 2019 5:48 pm

I sent a message to the “news” organisation that released this article, complaining of the language used. I hope more folks do so. It is insulting and defamatory.

Once a fan of the ABC

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Clarky of Oz
September 17, 2019 10:13 pm

Yes I sent an email to the editors email address along similar lines. They are not doing themselves any favours with the wider public.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
September 17, 2019 6:28 pm

Michael, perhaps it’s projection on the bloke’s part. A predatory climate alarmist making a Freudian slip.
It’s easy to spot predatory behavior towards youth by climate alarmists, but very hard to find that behavior in the contrarians to climate activism. Skeptics only try to negate the collateral damage by countering conjecture and predictions with fact and observation.

Elle Webber
September 17, 2019 5:37 pm

Does anyone know how many children he has? I found references to his waterfront home (boat-only access, and his boat used a motor, not sails), and to the jetsetting international travel he indulges in. But nothing about his kids, if any. Given his age, wouldn’t they be a little old to get hysterical over his melodramatic pronouncements?

September 17, 2019 5:39 pm

Ole Flim Flam wasn’t that much of a failure.

He got paid $AU180,000/year ($AU was close to parity with $US at the time) to be an adviser to the former Labor federal government at the time…a part time job btw.

He also got a $90 million grant from the Labor feds for his “hot rocks” geo-thermal plant that was going to be easy to start and would combat AGW. It turned out to be not so easy and was scrapped.

He also still owns two properties on the tidal Hawksebury River, an hour or so north of Sydney.

Rising seas Timmy! Isn’t that what you keep saying?

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Kentlfc
September 17, 2019 6:58 pm

Thank you for the reminder. That AU$18k/y was indeed for a part-time job which, IIRC, was just 3 days per week.

Patrick MJD
September 17, 2019 5:41 pm

Finally. We have a climate activist who admits that after 20 year of climate activism he failed. He admits climate and the fight against climate change is all politics and zero science.

I recon he’s retired or about to and his pension, and lifestyle, are secure so can say what he likes.

Well done Timmy!

September 17, 2019 5:56 pm

Like every macro-phenomenon in nature, Earth’s “climate change” is a chaotic/fractal, random-recursive, dual-dynamic process objectively unpredictable in astro-geophysical detail. Over some 1,500-million years, from the pre-Cambrian Ediacaran Period to the mid-Pliocene 3.6 million YBP, dustmote Earth experienced no global glaciations (“Ice Ages”). But from the Andes – American-Canadian orogeny in Paleogene/Oligocene times some 45 mm YBP, connecting North and South American continents have blocked global atmospheric/oceanic circulation patterns by walling off Eastern from Western hemispheres.

Though paleo-climatologists have yet to “model” this large-scale, long-term, cancellation phenomenon, which not only coalesced surface topography but elevated continents’ western coastal regions “from the Pole to the Horn”, the geologically recent result has been cyclical Pleistocene Ice Ages averaging 102 kiloyears, interspersed with interstadial remissions of median 12,250 years.

On this basis, Earth’s most recent Würmian Glaciation lasted from c. 116,400 – 14,400 YBP, followed by the Holocene Interglacial Epoch ending 12,250 + 3,500 – 14,400 = AD 1350 (Roman calendar, skewed by the 1,500-year Younger Dryas “cold shock” of 11,950 – 10,450 YBP). Meantime, Earth’s semi-millennial Medieval Warm ended coincident with Kamchatka’s strato-volcano Kambalny Eruption plus a 70-year Grand Solar Minimum to AD 1420 similar to that of 1645 – 1715, precipitating a 500-year Little Ice Age through AD 1850/1890.

Wegener’s plate-tectonic shifts aside, recent researchers not imbued with chiliastic Doomsday Cult hysteria have linked Earth’s century+ scale climatic regimes to sunspot cycles’ Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) affecting our Inner System’s solar magnetic field (SMF): Reduced irradiance at Sunspot Minima weakens field-emissions’ “plasma sheath”, seeding global cloud-cover with penetrating Cosmic Rays. As long-term overcast persists, temperatures drop; snowfalls accumulate; and –voila!– absent countervailing circumstances, miles-thick ice-sheets cover 60 – 70% of Earth’s habitable-zone landmasses.

As Australian Robert Holmes’ Mean Molar Mass version of the Ideal Gas Law definitively demonstrated in December 2017, any planet’s global atmospheric-surface temperature (GAST) T = PM/Rp (qv), meaning that anthropogenic warming via “greenhouse CO2” trace-gas emissions at 420 parts-per-million (.042% ppm) is a physical non-issue. Though such objective, scientific fact means nothing to Eric Hoffer’s True Believer (1951), the reality is that Earth faces a Super-Grand Solar Minimum through c. AD 2110 (Svensmark, Zharkova) concurrent with a cyclical Pleistocene Ice Age beginning 670 years back.

Reply to  Pyrthroes
September 18, 2019 6:39 am

Dâhmn… I thought I was “on top of my game” vocabulary wise! Well written, I bow to you. GoatGuy ✓

September 17, 2019 6:36 pm

Tim Fannery, for a moment I thought you said Flim Flannery.

Walter Sobchak
September 17, 2019 6:38 pm

Tim Flannery
Positions: Second Baseman, Pinch Hitter and Third Baseman
Bats: Left • Throws: Right
5-11, 175lb (180cm, 79kg)
Born: September 29, 1957 in Tulsa, OK
Draft: Drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 6th round in 1978
School: Chapman University (Orange, CA)
Debut: September 3, 1979
Last Game: September 29, 1989
Played 972 games all for the SD Padres
AB 2473 H 631 HR 9 BA .255 R 255 RBI 209 SB 22 OBP .335 SLG .317 WAR 9.1

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
September 17, 2019 9:09 pm

You’re batting 1000, Walter. 🤣

Patrick MJD
September 17, 2019 6:56 pm

Yeah, thought so. He is 63, retirement age in Australia is 65.

September 17, 2019 7:34 pm

Nice to see I scored a hat tip for this post, but it pales into insignificance compared to a post today by the editor and executive director of The Conversation , which is supposedly Australia’s premiere academic website/blog.

The post is headlined “Climate change deniers are dangerous – they don’t deserve a place on our site”.


In essence, the post states that The Conversation has reviewed its policy on climate change coverage and the new policy is summed up as: “That’s why the editorial team in Australia is implementing a zero-tolerance approach to moderating climate change deniers, and skeptics. Not only will we be removing their comments, we’ll be locking their accounts.”

So Australia’s leading academia website won’t just ban any comment not supporting climate change, it’ll stop such commenters having a say on anything. Not just “deniers” but anybody even skeptical.

i.e. Australia’s academia now won’t allow dissenting views on a scientific theory which supposedly is the most grave issue facing humanity.

Maybe a commenter said they didn’t agree with everything Flannery said in his post. Last week a commenter said that it should be made illegal for any Australian anywhere to say anything anti-AGW, which presumably aligns with The Conversation’s definition of free speech.

The total ban on anything not supporting climate change, and on the commenters themselves, is a tragic reflection of the current state of Australia’s academic integrity.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Chris Gillham
September 17, 2019 8:30 pm

At the bottom of the other link in the opening thread is this;

“Before you go…
The Conversation serves society by making knowledge accessible to everyone, not just a select few. Our only agenda is a better informed public. If you care about what we do please make a donation now and help secure our future.

Misha Ketchell


With a big Donate Now button. Don’t think that will work somehow.

Reply to  Chris Gillham
September 18, 2019 1:54 am

“The total ban on anything not supporting climate change, and on the commenters themselves, is a tragic reflection of the current state of Australia’s academic integrity.”

I was excommunicated from ‘The Conversation’ mths ago & ALL my previous posts removed …for showing NASA data proving climate has always changed but disproving the CACC claims in a British ‘Conversation’ article; so I must be a very dangerous person !

I note the latest pronouncement…
“This article is part of The Covering Climate Now series
This is a concerted effort among news organisations to put the climate crisis at the forefront of our coverage”

(The Conversation Australia has also joined more than 170 other media outlets in an initiative called Covering Climate Now, co-founded by the Columbia Journalism Review and The Nation. The idea is to provide a single week of dedicated high quality coverage of climate change ahead of the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York on September 23)

And don’t you just love the –
“Academic rigour, journalistic flair”
in the title banner & the
“We believe in the free flow of information”

September 17, 2019 7:55 pm

Flannery comes out of this looking like a complete fraud, sad to say.

Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia
September 17, 2019 8:03 pm

Commentators have posted about the economic ill-effects of Flannery’s pronouncements.

But there has also been a human lives cost:

Wivenhoe Dam

Look it up if you are not familiar with the thinking that led to the 2011 dam burst.

September 17, 2019 11:30 pm

“Far fewer humans will survive on our warming planet

That future Earth may have enough resources to support far fewer people than the 7.6 billion it supports today. British scientist James Lovelock has predicted a future human population of just a billion people. Mass deaths are predicted to result from, among other causes, disease outbreaks, air pollution, malnutrition and starvation, heatwaves, and suicide. ”

Isn’t that AGC ?

September 17, 2019 11:53 pm

It was certainly not a failure for his bank account, and he enjoyed some very nice trips all expenses paid .

Ray g
September 18, 2019 12:00 am

Colossal failure,is there anything he has not failed at?

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Ray g
September 18, 2019 12:10 am

I think he passed Eng. Lit., oh and some fairly extraordinary predictions about climate.

Old Woman of the North
Reply to  Ray g
September 18, 2019 1:02 am

Good question.

September 18, 2019 1:43 am

I’m still in unbelievable mode that this complete moronic so called scientist can still get away with his opportunistic lifestyle on the back of ignorant mis-informed believers – it’s tragic and to think he calls Australia home – God we need help down under – I mean even his own science was so badly flawed that those still working in his field have undone his science years ago – he needed to jump ship to the Global warming propaganda mob in order to keep the cash rolling in – SOMEONE PLEASE HELP

Old Ranga from Oz
September 18, 2019 1:53 am

Who’s funding Our Tim now? Gotta be $$ somewhere if it’s the University of Melbourne – the days of academic tenure are mostly long gone.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Old Ranga from Oz
September 18, 2019 2:42 am

Taxpayers. Uni pension, Govn’t pension. He is set for life, literally.

September 18, 2019 2:37 am

Hey, Flim Flam,


Patrick MJD
September 18, 2019 3:01 am

I saw this article at the Sydney Morning Herald the other day, it’s gone now! Hummmmm…..

September 18, 2019 3:26 am

Yes the gloves are off – the desperate London/Wallstreet crowd face a massive crash, and want the New Malthusianism – harikiri , to save the system , their banks.
The rush to using kids with “die-ins” shows their utter depravity, facing the end of their system.
Reminds me of the Aztecs just before Columbus saw to his horror how they went down.
So this “scientist” admitting defeat only means more depraved methods “will be necessary” as the population will ust not accept being culled.
Hence Extinction Rebellion, GND, Deep Green Resistance.
And all that just a sideshow for HongKong regime-change, Iran, Ukraine.

Be not fooled by that complete self-admitted failure Flannery!

Chris Wright
September 18, 2019 3:33 am

“British scientist James Lovelock has predicted a future human population of just a billion people.”
Flannery is wrong. His quote about Lovelock is from 2006. Since then Lovelock has completely changed his mind.
“But I’ve grown up a bit since then.” Lovelock says.
“I’m not sure the whole thing isn’t crazy, this climate change. ….”
“Well, it’s a religion, really, you see. It’s totally unscientific.”

I don’t think it’s a religion. It’s a death cult.

Reply to  Chris Wright
September 18, 2019 3:39 am

Lovelock did change his mind, and promoted nuclear.
But Ehrlich, Attenborough, and Schellnhube took up the batton, the latter two dubbed with Royal Titles for their service to the Crown. The Pope’s Paeaen to Gaia (Lovelock’s earlier theme) , Laudato Si, makes one wonder has the Anglican Church finally taken over the Vatican.

Prince Phillip’S ARC, Alliance of Religion and Conservation, started all this. So a synthetic religion it is indeed, with Royal breeding.

September 18, 2019 7:20 am
September 18, 2019 7:56 am

The total fertility rate of the World is estimated at 2.52 children per woman, which is above the global average for the replacement fertility rate of approximately 2.33 (as of 2003). Espenshade TJ, Guzman JC, Westoff CF (2003). “The surprising global variation in replacement fertility”. Population Research and Policy Review.

World historical and predicted total fertility rates (1950–2100)
UN, medium variant, 2012 rev.]
Years TFR Years TFR Years TFR
1950–1955 4.95 2000–2005 2.60 2050–2055 2.21
1955–1960 4.89 2005–2010 2.53 2055–2060 2.18
1960–1965 4.91 2010–2015 2.50 2060–2065 2.15
1965–1970 4.85 2015–2020 2.45 2065–2070 2.13
1970–1975 4.45 2020–2025 2.41 2070–2075 2.10
1975–1980 3.84 2025–2030 2.37 2075–2080 2.07
1980–1985 3.59 2030–2035 2.34 2080–2085 2.05
1985–1990 3.39 2035–2040 2.31 2085–2090 2.03
1990–1995 3.04 2040–2045 2.27 2090–2095 2.01
1995–2000 2.73 2045–2050 2.24 2095–2100 1.99

From 2035, the total fertility rate is estimated to fall below the replacement rate of 2.33, so by 2100 the world population could be around 5.5 billions. Don’t take my word for it. Follow the 99 references at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world

A book worth reading is “How Civilizations Die (and why Islam is dying too)” by David P. Goldman. Published in 2011, the book puts demographic changes into geopolitical terms. As Ben Shapiro in wont to point out: facts don’t care about your feelings. On 9th February 2017, Goldman (as Spengler) wrote that Iran may well become the first country in the world that will get old before it gets rich. Its fertility rate (the number of live births over the lifetime of an average woman) fell from 7 in 1979 to perhaps 1.7 today.

That produced an enormous generation of people now in their 20s to 40s who have very few children. As this generation ages, the proportion of Iranians over the age of 60 will soar from about 7% today to around 40% by mid-century.

Other countries face an aging crisis, but with ten times the per capita income: Iran’s nominal GDP per capita is only US$5,300, compared with US$56,000 for the United States, for example.No poor country can care for an elderly population comprising two-fifths of the total. Iran will undergo an economic disaster unprecedented in history. That is baked in the cake, and nothing its government can do will make much different at this late stage.

Iranians know their world is coming to an end and behave as if there is no tomorrow (which, in their case, there isn’t). As Goldman reported in 2016; The number of marriages has fallen by 20% since 2012. “In Iran, the customary marriage age range is 20-34 for men and 15-29 for women … 46% of men and 48% of women in those age ranges remain unmarried,” according to the national statistics agency. So-called white marriage, or cohabitation out of wedlock, is so common and controversial that the regime banned a women’s magazine [in 2015] for reporting on it. https://www.asiatimes.com/2017/02/article/iran-putins-depreciating-asset/

September 18, 2019 4:43 pm

Well not a complete failure….
While occupying the $180,000/yr Panasonic Chair in Environmental Sustainabilty at Macquarie University (among several other nice little earners) Prof. Flannery told Steve Rust, head of Panasonic Australia, “..he had had a busy year teaching students and “I’ve also been carrying the flag for Panasonic in everything else I do, the books I publish, in the television series that I’m making at the moment, and of course in the new position as the chief of the Climate Commission”.

neil john wildman
September 19, 2019 10:35 pm

Well Timo,
As an Australian I have seen you swan around on our rivers on boats , fair enough some C#%ts are raping them. You swan around with 2 stroke motors , on jets behind media posers with electric media . You tell us to live a simpler life whilst you swan around the world on jets whilst our power prices have been inflated by fantasy . I live a simple life, plant trees which I grow, don’t fly around on jets , grow my own veges with water from solar power and you wanker, you want me to pay more for the environment .Go get f%^ked , like all you pricks do as I say not as I do .

September 21, 2019 4:42 pm

It’s called the Atwood effect . Alarmist BS from people who buy bottled water by the case .
Mr. Blackface included .
See the science isn’t settled , never was but one thing about humans they don’t like
preachy hypocrites. The scary climate promoters are some of the biggest fossil fuel hogs on
the planet . Did they think people might not notice .
Obama buys a $15 million waterfront shack. Now that’s a guy really scared of the earths fever .

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