Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Their models tell them the end of the world is nigh…
Climate change evacuation planning needs to start now, scientists urge
By environment reporter Nick Kilvert
From Bangladesh to the Philippines and the low-lying islands of the South Pacific, the impacts of climate change for many people around the world are going to get much worse, very soon.
Key points
- Preparing now can prevent last-minute disorderly evacuation from climate impacts
- Building in areas that will be hit by climate disasters in future needs to stop
- Millions are expected to be displaced by the end of the century
Some people will become stateless, and will need to find homes in new countries, while others will need to relocate within their own borders.
Researchers writing in Science today argue that it’s time to begin preparing the retreat of people living in regions that will become uninhabitable due to climate change.By preparing now we can manage retreat in as equitable a way possible, and minimise paternalism and disruption to culture, according to author AR Siders from the Disaster Research Centre at the University of Delaware.
“People need to think about it right now,” Dr Siders said.
…
Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-08-23/climate-retreat-planning-science/11435382
Back in the real world, countries like New Zealand, which generously offers residency to people in allegedly climate afflicted areas, is struggling to fill their quota.
From the Kiribati refugee story in 2015;
…
Mr Kidd sees politics in the mix. There are potentially hundreds of millions of people in low-lying areas that could be affected by sea level rises. He wonders if wealthy countries fear that cases like Mr Teitiota’s could turn climate migration from a trickle to a raging torrent.
But there hasn’t been a dramatic exodus just yet. The New Zealand immigration department sets aside 75 places a year in a lottery for migrants from Kiribati, and at the moment it can’t fill them.President Anote Tong suggests that is because things aren’t desperate enough yet.
…
Read more: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34674374
Its kindof sad when you see otherwise intelligent people in my opinion in the grip of groupthink so impervious to reason or evidence, that they say things which make perfect sense from their perspective, but which reveal their utter disconnect from reality to the rest of us.
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The UN wants those Pacific Islands vacated and turned over to UN for “care.” They want the EEZ fishing rights around those islands which because of the vast nature of some of the islands chains, consists of a lot of ocean.
China really wants all those islands in the Pacific, if the UN doesn’t. And the residents of those islands will probably accept both the bad science of CAGW and the bribes/loans of China and then they will lose their very nice real estate in the South Pacific. And probably their freedom too.
and you can bet theres oil gas or rare earth mineral;s etc in the areas there , which is why chinas also on the other islands apaert from “defence of shipping”
how overjoyed will the suckered islanders be when tourism vanishes and so do the handouts
and the mining begins ruining the seabed and reefs etc
almost wish it would happen for the sh*ts n giggles
Fortunately, no evacuation plans” for Germany in 1986
I walk down by the beach nearly every day for the past 20 years. Have not noticed the sea getting any closer to the shore. Think I’ll stay put for a while.
If the whole planet is going to be dead in 12 years or less, shouldn’t they be planning to leave the entire planet, not just move from one place to another? I think we should let our liberal friends, who are most concerned about this, get first dibs on leaving the planet. One way, of course.
I second and heartily support that idea!!!
About the creeping terror of sea level rise… figuratively depicted in this movie trailer from 1964.
Starting at about 43 seconds in, some commentary: Dimwit from fly-over country on the left, Liberal activist with PhD on the right. Followed by a couple so distracted the guy forgot they were still in the front seat and the keys were still in the ignition. Then topped off with a demonstration of military intelligence.
Some one call Leonard Pinth Garnell!
That is some delightfully bad cinema.
Not very good at all!
But didn’t Hollywood already say it was too late?
We should have built this stuff by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_(film)
Like many, I can witness in any court that damaged by climate refugiees exist.
We fly them twice a day from the cold grip of winter to sunny warmer locations.
Unfortunately they have to come back to the cold and work hard to pay taxes and climate related taxes.
In perspective; this equates to grandparents making changes in 1919 that someone predicted to year 2000. The millennium Y2K pending disaster perhaps.
Fortunately most of our grandparents were far more common sense bound. Nor did their children suffer similar end of the century fears during the 40s-50s.
Their 3rd to 5th line of descendents are the ones who started believing that they have the right to make decisions for their descendents 80 years into the future.
It takes some truly delusional people to believe this tripe about bad models predicting future acceleration of sea level rise.
Most of the Pacific Islands are actually growing is size, not shrinking. Tuvalu, site of a recent Climate-Money Fest increased 3% in a decade. These Alarmists and Warmistas are impervious to facts and have moved out of sight of reality.
Is there anywhere on Earth humans have found to be ‘uninhabitable’?
With sufficient energy (fossil/nuclear) we have managed to live in many of the most extreme environments.
If these idiots wish to save some lives, build some fossil-fuelled generation in the poorest nations where millions are already living in disastrous conditions
The thing about Bangladesh is that it is a delta at the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers. These rivers carry silt from the Himalayas until they reach the Sea of Bengal, where they deposit the silt at sea level.
The delta is thus always at sea level. Even when the earth’s oceans were 450+ feet lower at the LGM, the Ganges et al delta was at sea level. It wasn’t a giant plateau towering above the crashing waves 450 feet below.
If the oceans rise 50, 100, or 200 feet, Bangladesh will still be at sea level. Delaware may be submerged, but not Bangladesh.
Perhaps Dr. Siders and other disasterists at the UD Centre in Newark (ironic name) should evacuate to Bangladesh where they will be safe from rising sea levels.
There is a cunning plan here build the spaceship and put all the true climate believers in it and send them on their way to save humanity. It will cost less than most of their proposals and you cant hear whining in space.
“It will cost less than most of their proposals and you cant hear whining in space.”
Yes, we can build them one heck of a spaceship for $5 Trillion dollars. That $5 Trillion is much less than what the lunatics want to spend on fixing the Earth’s climate, so it’s a win-win situation in that we save many Trillions of dollars and we rid ourselves of these delusional alarmists. Plus, we can make back that $5 Trillion in short order since we won’t have the socilaists putting the brakes on the economy anymore. 🙂
I question the credentials of anyone who does not know the difference between weather and climate.
“Building in area that will be hit by climate disasters in the future needs to stop.”
This is a multilayered mélange of idiocy on steroids, with a generous frosting of totally uncalled for doomsday panic mongering.
In the first place, who are they to tell the rest of the world exactly what “needs to stop”?
It is more true that people like them need to stop presuming to tell the rest of us what to do.
And what the heck is a “climate disaster”, anyway?
Do they mean a severe weather event?
Which are the places in the world that are completely immune to one sort of disaster or another, especially when the time frame for such is the “future”?
I can tell them which places: No places!
There is no place where some sort of disaster is known to be impossible at any time in the future.
And no way to predict where any event will occur except very generally: Mountain ridges are unlikely to undergo floods, and places that are 100 miles inland are unlikely to experience hurricanes.
But those same places will for sure and with 100% certainty undergo some other type of weather disaster at some point: Blizzards will hit mountains, and droughts and heatwaves, tornadoes and floods will at some point “hit” inland areas.
But there are weather events, not climate events.
I do not even know if there is such a thing as a climate disaster.
Climate is a 30 year average of weather conditions in a particular place. A rainforest becoming a desert might be a climate disaster, but I know of no place that this will happen, nor do they. It is likely impossible short of a planet changing event like a return to ice age conditions.
Maybe they mean like when Antarctica became an ice sheet? Or the places that used to be sea shores became submerged by over 100 meters of ocean water when the Laurentide ice sheet melted? What is gonna happen next? Should we evacuate low lying islands to Hudson’s Bay, and hope that a return of the ice sheet is not the next thing to occur?
Maybe they mean when the Holocene Climate Optimum ended and it got much colder across the planet, and the lush veldt of the Sahara became a desert? That was when temperatures fell, and yet these people are hoping and trying to bring about a reversal of the recent warmup from Little Ice Age conditions!
No one alive now has suffered from a climate disaster, although we are the beneficiaries of several huge climate changes, like the end of the Pleistocene and the end of the LIA.
How can someone be a climate scientist who is not aware of the distinction between weather and climate?
Why should anyone listen to irrational doomsday panic monger and their breathless jackassery?
And why should anyone believe the primary focus of where it is or is not a good idea to live one’s life ought to be the mere possibility of some nebulous and unstated “disaster”, at any time in the infinite interval called “the future”?
The timing and spacing of such events is what matters.
And no place is immune to adverse weather events, although it is almost surely the case that no one alive today will dies due to “climate change”.
Bad weather though? Yes, that is and will always be a risk. Although it is also true that it is rarely the actual weather than kills, but rather the decisions about where exactly to build one’s home: River flood plains are dangerous and will by definition flood at regular intervals in the future. But theses are also rich and productive farmlands. Sea sides and sea ports are at danger from ocean storms, but are great places to live in between them. People that heed evacuation warnings are at little risk, but people are known to ignore these, and often these are the same people that are most at risk.
But such places are also at risk from tsunamis, and these have nothing to do with weather or climate, and are impossible to predict in advance, although we can safely say for sure that anyplace which has had one in the past will have more in the future.
Which leads into the next point about the focus on weather and climate: There is no end to the risks in life, and the sorts of disasters that may affect people. Why and how does anyone presume to say that weather is a unique risk?
Tens of millions of people blithely go on living in California, despite the sure and certain knowledge that no end of deadly earthquakes are on top for that state with no chance for any warning whatsoever, and no chance it will not happen again, even after “the big one” hits!
Everyone in cities like Portland and Seattle are at grave risk of not just deadly tsunamis, but the certainty of a future lahar and even a chance of being incinerated just prior to being buried (barely) alive by pyroclastic flow when one of the nearby volcanoes next chooses to erupt, although it is perhaps more likely that there will be some warning before a catastrophic eruptive event.
But how many will ignore the swarms of earthquakes known as harmonic tremors that indicate an active magma plume? I think it will be very many.
And how many scientists will go out on a limb and give grave and urgent warnings when there is a mere chance of such events? I can tell you the answer is zero, because they are coming and no one is warning anyone at all.
Natural disasters are hardly limited to weather events, and many such events occur very rarely, and do so in locations that are highly desirable and beneficial places to live one’s life. We live on a planet where no one is perfectly safe from disaster, and weather disasters are not uniquely deadly and certain, let alone particularly predictable, or necessarily totally avoidable.
Writing a speculative paper based on hype and fear by people with no sense of history, little perspective or even common sense, and with an incautious and alarmist mentality…this is not science, it is opinionating by people with a startling lack of rational judgement.
These so called scientists declare evacuations WILL be required from low lying islands, and are not even aware of the recent findings that nearly every island which has actually been surveyed over time has been found to be gaining in area and elevation, and not sinking or even shrinking.
Taking in the big picture, we of sound and rational mind must be and remain aware of why there is this focus on one type of concern rather than on a rational understanding of the inherent risks in life on a dynamic planet.
The reason is because climate change has nothing to do with the real reason for what these people are doing, it is a mere means to an end.
The purpose is to wrest control of our lives from us, and hand over political power to a certain ideological wing of the global body politic, and to use the means by which we all remain alive, employed, safe, and comfortable to do it: By taking control of the sources of energy, that same energy that has elevated us from a dirty, brutal and short existence of the recent past, to the clean, safe, long, and cozy one we now enjoy.
Some of these so-called scientists may merely be clueless, but others are very clued in, and they are wicked and evil.
All are dangerous, and wrong.
Nicholas McGinley: good comment.
Well said. Once I was told that human intelligence is a consistent howev the population is unfortunately increasing.
Folks some people believe that there is no climate emergency and some believe the world is flat or the moon is made of cheese. But over 95% of climate scientists believe that human induced climate change is very rapidly changing our world. The other scientists and commentators are employed by big oil or coal as lobbyists. Esso knew back in the 80’s that human burning of fossil fuels would cause climate change,but inorder to protect their business interests they ran disinformation campaigns from bogus think tanks.
Hey Skippy,
Doomsday catastrophists have believed the world is about to end since the dawn of time, and most of us thought that it was because people in the old days were superstitious fools.
Now we know it is because they are just like you: Gullible dupes and frightened children who have been lied to and have no way to understand it.
Instead of succumbing to the mass hysteria and infantile delusions that are all the rage, how about instead educating yourself about the actual facts?
No one thinks the world is flat or the moon made of cheese, but if it makes you feel better to tell yourself that such delusions are commonplace, just go right on ahead believing they do.
Go right on believing that there is a consensus that the world is changing rapidly due to CO2 caused global warming.
Go find the proof that anything is changing rapidly besides alarmism and nincompoopery.
Go find a crisis and bring us the proof.
In the meantime, spare us the straw men and logical fallacies and all the rest of the institutionalized jackassery you are in love with.
I think that Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds ought to be part of every school curriculum.
I’m sure that Charles Mackay would have something to say about our modern condition nearly 170 years after he was published.
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/24518/24518-h/24518-h.htm
A recommended read for those who haven’t come across it.
What about AL Gore and Obama having millions of dollars worth of property on the East shore of the Atlantic. Apparently they don’t believe to much in sea level rise but they want us to believe.
I decided to be the crazy Canadian today, but most of you will already think we are nuts. My fellow Canadians will be telling me to shut the front door! Or something like that. 🙂 But! Here it goes. I think “they” are wrong. The north is not the place to be, the north will be the new south. How does that grab yah?! Insert another grin here. Hmmmm now, what if, all this HAS happened before. What if it wasn’t the ice age that brought the glacial evidence as far south as Peggy’s Cove. (Just about half way between the north pole and the equator.) But…it was the planets own natural defense against the sun. What if the poles and their ice covered landmasses are the air-conditioning for the planet…up is down, down is up. I remember my father saying that back in the seventies, months before his death. Funny how things stick with you. So, if that is the case, and Antarctica is the major contributor to all that goes on beneath/above it…after all Rivers run south from there…or north…or whatever direction it is…It doesn’t fall off, put it that way. 🙂 Yeah, I just thought I could use some humiliation for the day. Everybody I know thinks I’m just a bit off, now they will know for sure. 🙂 All my Air Force buddies will be embarrassed of me, but it won’t be the first time hahahahaha. All I can say, is be nice, be generous and remember…we have no idea WTF happens after this. Hedge your bets and be a good soul LOL. Cheers.