Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Their models tell them the end of the world is nigh…
Climate change evacuation planning needs to start now, scientists urge
By environment reporter Nick Kilvert
From Bangladesh to the Philippines and the low-lying islands of the South Pacific, the impacts of climate change for many people around the world are going to get much worse, very soon.
Key points
- Preparing now can prevent last-minute disorderly evacuation from climate impacts
- Building in areas that will be hit by climate disasters in future needs to stop
- Millions are expected to be displaced by the end of the century
Some people will become stateless, and will need to find homes in new countries, while others will need to relocate within their own borders.
Researchers writing in Science today argue that it’s time to begin preparing the retreat of people living in regions that will become uninhabitable due to climate change.By preparing now we can manage retreat in as equitable a way possible, and minimise paternalism and disruption to culture, according to author AR Siders from the Disaster Research Centre at the University of Delaware.
“People need to think about it right now,” Dr Siders said.
…
Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-08-23/climate-retreat-planning-science/11435382
Back in the real world, countries like New Zealand, which generously offers residency to people in allegedly climate afflicted areas, is struggling to fill their quota.
From the Kiribati refugee story in 2015;
…
Mr Kidd sees politics in the mix. There are potentially hundreds of millions of people in low-lying areas that could be affected by sea level rises. He wonders if wealthy countries fear that cases like Mr Teitiota’s could turn climate migration from a trickle to a raging torrent.
But there hasn’t been a dramatic exodus just yet. The New Zealand immigration department sets aside 75 places a year in a lottery for migrants from Kiribati, and at the moment it can’t fill them.President Anote Tong suggests that is because things aren’t desperate enough yet.
…
Read more: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34674374
Its kindof sad when you see otherwise intelligent people in my opinion in the grip of groupthink so impervious to reason or evidence, that they say things which make perfect sense from their perspective, but which reveal their utter disconnect from reality to the rest of us.
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Chicken Lickenism, the newest “science” in town. Come one, come all; wear your costumes to the Doomsday Ball.
Time to start a large scale evacuation of models?
Time to start a large scale evacuation of climate modellers. Send them to Bangladesh for field work.
The problems of Bangladesh have little to do with “climate change”. Darwinian selection will sort out which populations are capable of managing river deltas as a life sustaining environment. The “cultures” of those which fail should not be protected.
Chicken Lickenism??? Chicken Littleism maybe?
Okay I have a plan – let’s practice.
Begin: AAAAHHH!!!! AAAAAAHHHHH!!! EVERYBODY RUN!!! AIEEEEEEE!!!!
That concludes the plan, and this concludes the practice. Thank you.
I like CDS (Climate Derangement Syndrome).
What is the presumed greatest “threat” to Kiribati Pacific islands? Presumable rising seas, which Time mag recently featured in a story with the UN secretary standing there in the ocean.
Problem is that recent actual studies have shown the great majority of these islands, especially the larger inhabited ones, are either rising or not shrinking from sea rise.
Another example of the hype disagreeing with the evidence.
Folks some people believe that there is no climate emergency and some believe the world is flat or the moon is made of cheese. But over 95% of climate scientists believe that human induced climate change is very rapidly changing our world. The other scientists and commentators are employed by big oil or coal as lobbyists. Esso knew back in the 80’s that human burning of fossil fuels would cause climate change,but inorder to protect their business interests they ran disinformation campaigns from bogus think tanks.
And Obama just bought a $14M waterfront mansion on Martha’s Vineyard. Any questions? Don’t listen to what they SAY, watch what they DO.
This is the guy who peed on your foot for 8 years and told you not only that it was raining, it was all your fault because “climate change!”
Sounds like the girl who peed on the dance floor .
It damped down the party .
Helmuth, you have just parroted the standard talking points of alarmism laced with disinformation. I don’t even know where to begin.
You need to catch up on some reading/ learning.
Do you live like the cave men did Helmuth.
Obviously not .
You have a computer ,What powers it ,
Oh you have car .
What you fly by jet plane .
Crawl back into your cave
.Sorry you don’t live in a cave .
You live in a mansion
Get real use your brain
Where would you be without fossil fuel .
If you believe there is a climate emergency you need help ,
@Helmuth Osborne, August 25, 2019 at 6:35 a.m., I have an exercise for you that might even improve your logic faculties and certainly won’t hurt: find evidence to back up anything you said. Computer model outputs are not evidence. Don’t forget everything requires confirmation and corroboration, an editorial letter all by itself means nothing, it doesn’t matter where it’s published. Multiple editorial letters all saying the same thing don’t make any of them more reliable. As I see it, there is no evidence to support anything you said.
Are you sure these “scientists” aren’t playing one of those highly addictive FB video games about “survival” and then confusing it with reality ? I can see no other rational explanation for their obvious disconnect…
if we listened to “their models”….we would be dead by now
…it’s really sick when all you see is the bad things
No, the models I have read articles on consistently say that problems will be very bad by 2050, with a lot bigger problems following thereafter. To say “today is clear skies” as a counterargument is picking apart a strawman.
And those same models 10, 20, and 30 years ago all said we’d be toast by now. The models are created with proxies, and the models are created to forecast what agenda-biased people think is going to happen. Even current weather forecasting models are based on the past. When a forecaster says there’s a 20% of rain, he or she isn’t saying he or she has 20% certainty. What is being said is when these similar conditions have happened in past, it resulted in rain 20% of those occurrences.
To paraphrase, it is difficult to convince someone that something is true when their livelihood depends upon its being false.
This is great! I am all for it.
First off are all these nutcases then maybe some sanity will return to Mother Earth.
Chicken Little comes to mind…The Sky Is Falling!
I think this kind of story is as old as the hills, and there is nothing new under the Sun. There is always going to be fodder for weather related disaster because it is reality, there is always something wrong with the weather and climate somewhere and now that we have real time connectivity to everywhere at once, we are now on steroids with our global aware omnipresent technology. This week the Amazon, next week it will be something else, and we will never run out of material for this never ending crisis. But yet the world goes on.
Yeah, I tell people much the same on a regular basis. The 24-second news cycle distorts our reality. 30 years ago, there could have been an F5 tornado five miles away in a farmer’s field and no one but the farmer would have known about it. Today, I can sit on a toilet in Billings, MT and get data of pinpoint lightning strikes in Miami, FL. Exceptional knowledge and live streams don’t mean ANY of this is unprecedented. I’ve recently noticed news agencies now quote climate info as coming from “a study.”
Well, I do think that we should encourage these prognosticators to fund development of hyperlight space travel, so that those who are threatened – emotionally, mentally, etc. – by climate change and/or fear of it can migrate to another planet and leave the rest of us alone.
I have, in fact, come up with the perfect place: Bimballa is an Earth-like planet that is facing a volcanic winter because a chain of five volcanoes has come online and is erupting ferociously, casting ash dispersions into the air. Bimballa is awash in megafauna such as deinotherium and giant fishing birds very much like Pelagornis sandersei, and some very oddball monotremes that look like six-legged horses, so there’s plenty of protein available for incoming migrants. Bimballa orbits a Sol-type star, in the Goldilocks zone, about 3,000 LY from Earth. Plenty of trees to build housing, too. They’ll be fine.
All they have to do is build a hyperlight ship that will take them there. Then the rest of us can go back to our peaceful, productive lives. ( Yes, it’s my invention, and I’m happy with it.)
Surely you’re not suggesting the emigrants eat meat? No, they must set a good example for those of us left behind and adhere to the edict they handed down prior to their exodus: plant protein only. Also they must get around on all fours and sleep in trees.
It is very meet and right to do so…
In the name of pancakes with butter and maple syrup, Amen.
They’ll probably take all the soybeans they can grab with them and find out how hard it is to plant enough soybeans to feed their empty tummies. It would be a joy to watch them struggling to make such things grow.
Aren’t they talking about preparing places on Earth for a mass migration? Not leaving the planet.
Anthony has a sense of humor.
An article highlighting the crisis of hundreds of millions of people needing to be evacuated, directly follows an article on Exoplanets.
Just a coincidence.
And the Obama’s buying a house barely above high water.
Who is the Anthony to whom you refer, and what had he to do with this coincidence?
Having a sense of humor is a favorite character trait — just saying.
Who posted the article? Not Anthony.
Special evacuation plans should be generated for B. Obama (a retired U.S. government employee) whose family recently (and improvidently) purchased a residence at Martha’s Vineyard, United States which is no more than 200 meters from the Atlantic Ocean and no more than two meters above (current) sea level. This property can be expected to be underwater in less than twenty years.
Yes, 97% of scientists say his house will be under water in 20 years! 🙂
20 years? Really? With current sea level rise of less than 3 mm per year (almost the same as the average of the last 150 years) it would probably last about 700 years before there is a 2 meter rise. Add another 700 years before the property is underwater. By then, no one will even remeber who Obama was.
Its actually about 1.5 mm per year based on tide gauges. Based on geological evidence, this has been the rate of sea level rise for the past 6,000 years. See https://www.jcronline.org/doi/full/10.2112/03-0123.1
You are right, using the tide gauge data it would even last twice as long.
I only wanted to object to the 20 years suggestion, which sounded very alarmistic although RNB surely did not mean i that way.
Obama who?
Obama who?
Is there a hurricane headed that way this year?
If the climate is going to change a lot. why not plan to evacuate people to the Steppes of Russia, Siberia and Alaska? These will surely be prime real estate when the weather gets hotter, and they are very sparsely populated at the moment.
Anyone want to join me in buying a few hundred square miles around the Bering Sea? It will be the new Med….
Be careful not to cause a walrus stampede.
I don’t know, Dodgy, I think I will stick to reality and head South to buy some prime Equatorial land to ride out the next 100,000-year-long Glacial Period.
Don’t forget to buy that “Brain in a Vat” kit, so you can live that long.
To me, it sounds like an advertisement for the Mars journeys from Elon Musk (SpaceX)
Let’s take Miami Beach, Florida, where the streets were laid out in 1916 below king tide.
Sea level (and subsidence) has been occurring at a constant rate since then.
Residents could be forgiven for not noticing that slight increase for 80 years, but in 1996 Al Gore gave them clear and fair warning.
None of those waterfront residents are poverty stricken, ignorant or immobile (many of whom moved there from NYC). I have not yet noticed a significant migration to the inland mountains of Alabama or Georgia. /sarc
People, poor or wealthy will move when actual evidence is observed at their location.
On the other hand, if a government (say India) enriches itself with development from fossil fuels , it may have the resources to relocate the poverty stricken from areas that historically have been hit by floods or hurricanes; but that is not related to “Climate Change” and does not require Global governance or planning.
Anyone else notice that the very people who rant against “colonialism”, are the most paternalistic?
The Libs need more votes:
“Some people will become stateless, and will need to find homes in new countries…”
How about just sending them to another planet, instead? Lots of empty real estate on Mars.
Well I guess there’s no more believing they don’t really believe it.
There goes the neighborhood.
I think part of being intelligent is being able to decipher reality from your available senses. “Otherwise intelligent” people are probably well trained in memorizing something they read or hear and then repeating it. It’s like confusing narrow artificial intelligence for real intelligence.
“according to author AR Siders from the Disaster Research Centre at the University of Delaware.”
Here’s the problem right now. A disaster research boffin can’t just sit there waiting for disaster on a fine summer day with temperatures actually still below 1930s record highs. Someone might notice and he may end up the lead budget cut. A lot of the recent hysteria arises because of a plethora of “A55-in-a-Sling” climate halloo departments, responders, bean counters with nothing to do having been blind sided by a 2 decade Global Pause in temperature rise during which CO2 galloped 30% higher.
Oh they wrought a patch of this career threatening development out of ship bucket/nighttime sea-air/ whatever-comes-to-hand temperature manufacturing technology on the eve of retirement of NOAAs wroughter-in-chief.
I think we are on the eve of a new pandemic of “Climate Blues”, first occasioned by the “Dreaded Pause” that a decade ago took out a large number of career climateers . They know that the developing economies are building hundreds, perhaps thousands of coal fired electricity plants and CO2 in the atmosphere is going to test their faltering theory big time. They also know the wonderful molecule is ushering in a “Garden of Eden Earth” with, so far an 18% increase in “leafing out”. How can they stand it?
This is just an excuse to stop spending money on flood defences. Fairbourne in Wales is being threatened by this nonsense:
https://manicbeancounter.com/2016/02/14/blighting-of-fairbourne-by-flawed-report-and-bbc-reporting/
I wonder what the population of Holland will think about being “relocated”. I think they’ll say no and build up their dykes.
surely it would be the excuse for the vijfde Engelse oorlog?
100+ years of tide gauge relative sea level data has been collected at Newlyn right near Fairbourne. 1.8 mm/year average and 3.8mm/year recently (potentially due to decadal cycles seen in the data 1926, 1950, 1980 similar rates). .4 to .7mm/year due to gps measured subsidence. Even at the high rate only 7.5” in 50 years. For this they are decommisioning the town!
Great history of the newlyn tide gauge below
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01490419.2015.1121175
I live where there is wine production and a lot of palm trees. If I move to the frozen tundra of northern Yukon, where the land is really cheap, how long do I have to wait before grapes grow and palm trees arrive? I´m 73 so I hope it is not too long. Should I take my golf clubs with me?
No golf allowed. That’s a waste of water and vineyard land.
You should definitely make it a round trip ticket.
With each installment of stupid claims, these idiots never fail to deliver.
Even if alarmist predictions came true, I’m pretty sure people could evacuate at speed greater than many mosses grow, which is how fast sea levels might rise. No need for advanced planning.
Sadly, some act upon their hysteria.
In the 1950s, the crowd’s focus was on nuclear war and the necessary evacuation from cities. Vancouver’s Granville Street Bridge is a main traffic artery and the south exits include a clover-leaf ramp. The inner part of the loop was empty space and some zealots raised some money and purchased three semi-trailers. Which were converted with seats for passengers. This was going to evacuate a population of them some 400,000 downtown people.
In the 1840s, a charismatic preacher named Miller had a personal vision that the world was going to end. With a great conflagration. The movement became hysterical, spreading through most of the eastern States and parts of England.
Based upon elaborate calculations, the date was October 22, 1844.
Many of the true believers sold their belongings, Miller sold them “Ascension Gowns”.
When October 22nd came and went with only the leaves coming off the trees, the failure day was described as the “Great Disappointment”.
Bob H., I was in the first grade in Los Angeles during the early 50’s, and the atomic bomb scare was very bad. There were special alarms everywhere, and when they went off all of us kids were supposed to get underneath our desks and curl up in a special way so you could kiss your ass good-bye. These practice alarms were upsetting to almost everyone.
Don’t know about this. Maybe the best thing is to put people like these to work doing something that will shut them up and do no harm at the same time. Drawing up unneeded plans for an imaginary crisis would keep them off the street, and hopefully out of a teaching career. Tell them to start making the plans, and don’t call us, we’ll call you when we need them.
I would suggest looking at China. I have read that they have built entire cities that have yet to be populated.
More proof man-made climate change is a junk science Big Lie..
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the state can shield the people from the political, economic, and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the state to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the state.” – Joseph Goebbels
i think they should start today as long as la and new york city go first.
From the article: “From Bangladesh to the Philippines and the low-lying islands of the South Pacific, the impacts of climate change for many people around the world are going to get much worse, very soon.”
What impacts?
I think they are assuming too much. They are assuming the Earth’s climate is already being negatively affected by CO2 and it will be much worse in the future because of our increasing the levels of CO2.
But, there is no evidence on which to base their assumption that CO2 is doing anything damaging right now, so there is certainly no evidence for their prediction of even worse effects in the future.
All this climate alarmism is based on an unsubstantiated claim that CO2 will detrimentally affect the Earth’s atmosphere. All this climate alarmism is pure speculation based on nothing but other speculation.
CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming) has no established foundation. There is the greenhouse gas theory, but CO2 doesn’t act alone in the atmosphere, there are feedbacks which might negate most or all of any CO2 warming of the atmosphere. Noone can say this has been ruled out as a possiblity. That demonstrates how little understanding we have of the basic mechanisms involved. Yet we get all these horrifying disaster claims based on nothing more than this.
And the only other thing CAGW has as a foundation is the fraudulent Hockey Stick global surface temperature chart that doesn’t agree with unmodified historical charts or with the UAH satellite chart.
CAGW has a foundation of pure speculation. Then we get thousands of studies like this one building on this speculation, and none of them are based on any established facts. What a fiasco! A very expensive fiasco.
Sorry to have to say it, but Australia has the dumbest eco muts on the planet by a massive margin.
The Guardian are even implying Peter Ridd is taking money from sugar cane industry to attack reef science.
that govvy minister for environment popped up there a week or so ago and said the reef looked rather good..it DID get some msm cover but not for too long.
but I have noticed the reefgrief crap eased off noticeably.
except for egtup avaaz n greenp*ss
Keying off the above article’s graphic, I put much less credibility on the urgent need to evacuate Earth for the reason of future climate change than I do on needing such evacuation to facilitate the Vogons’ intergalactic hyperspace express route construction project.
Who do you reckon will profit from abandoning all this land? Who will profit from all the new building to resettle these people? How much will end jump being government xontrolled?
Makes one sad to see how badly the little folks will be hurt by something that won’t even occur.
All these “very soons” are beginning to pile up . I have my snorkel ready and await the impending
Atlantean sea level cataclysm with equanimity. No …still not happening…
Humans could develop webbed feet, cat’s eyes and gills to deal with global warming | Daily Mail Online
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3396624/Webbed-feet-cat-s-eyes-gills-Features-just-humans-evolve-deal-water-world-global-warming-second-ice-age.html
“Webbed feet, cat’s eyes and gills: Features are just some that humans could evolve to have to deal with a ‘water world’ due to global warming
Experts predicts some genetic changes could take place quickly
For example, some humans already have a mutation that causes webbing
A layer in the retina may develop to help us see in poor light under water
Our noses and face size would increase to help warm inhaled cold air in the nasopharynx, the area behind the nose”