The Week That Was: 2019-08-03 (August 3, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Confusing Planet: Our planet is a complex place, no doubt confusing global warming headline seekers. About 71%of the surface is water (ocean), 29% is land. Water warms and cools far more slowly than land. Complicating matters further, the dominant greenhouse gas is water vapor, slowing the nighttime cooling of water and land masses even further, where it is present.
Making matters even more complex is that about 81% of the Southern hemisphere is water and 19% is land. For the Northern Hemisphere, about 61% is water and 39% is land. Land area varies by latitude. About 68% of the land is in the Northern Hemisphere, only 32% in the Southern Hemisphere. By latitude, the highest percentage of land area is between 30 degrees North and 60 degrees North. [The distribution of land areas has changed significantly over the past 750 million years, making any paleo-earth studies of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide on temperatures difficult. One cannot assume the ocean currents were the same as today.]
Today, the planet’s orbit places it closest to the sun in early January (winter in the Northern Hemisphere), and farthest in early July (summer in the Northern Hemisphere). Yet the hottest month for global temperatures tends to be July, due to the distribution of the land areas. [The orbit, axial tilt, and orientation vary as described by the Milankovitch cycles.]
This week, the World Meteorological Organization announced that preliminary data indicates that July 2019 may have been the hottest month recorded. The announcement was blared by the trumpets of global warming including the head of the UN, Antonio Guterres. As typical, the trumpeters ignored the details. The data were preliminary, and they do not survive examination. The data relied on forecasts for the end of the month, not actual observations.
On his website, Roy Spencer describes three errors in claiming July was the hottest month. The worst is the continued use of land instruments which are affected by the urban heat island effect. This has been well documented. Anthony Watts demonstrated it for the US. Jo Nova is posting a few examples in Australia on her website. Amazingly, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has carefully mapped all the deficiencies of the instrument site at Murray Bridge, South Australia, including positions of the sun, yet continues to use the data.
Bureaucratic inertia is stunning. Correctly estimating the distortion from the urban heat island effect in the land surface data is impossible. To make matters worse, NOAA has “adjusted” rural instruments to more closely match urban instruments.
A second error in the surface temperature data are the changes in ocean measurements from changing technologies, from buckets, to engine water intakes, to buoys. There is no systematic method of calibrating these different methods because the different methods of bucket sampling and depth of water intakes is unknow. NOAA claimed to do so, but, as discussed in previous TWTWs, the claim is not credible. The third source of error described by Spencer is that the location of both land and ocean instruments is notoriously incomplete. Yet, NASA-GISS continues to show temperatures over large areas where there are no measuring stations, no instruments.
As Spencer demonstrates, the unusual warmth of western Europe was offset by unusual cool of eastern Europe. He advocates using Global Reanalysis datasets for monthly estimates of surface temperatures. These are the result of daily observations using surface thermometers, buoys, ships, weather balloons, commercial aircraft data, and a wide variety of satellite data sources. They are used daily to forecast the weather.
The US reanalysis dataset, CFSv2, available to the public shows that July 2019 was not the hottest July ever, it was the fourth warmest in 41 years behind 2016, 2002, and 2017. According to 41-year dataset, which goes back to 1979, July 2019 was only 0.5ºF (0.3ºC) above normal for July.
TWTW adds that the Japan Meteorological Agency reanalysis dataset goes back to 1958. See links under Measurement Issues – Surface, http://phl.upr.edu/library/notes/distributionoflandmassesofthepaleo-earth, and https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html
Better US Surface Data: Writing in ICECAP, Meteorologist Joseph D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics discusses the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN), which is also discussed by Anthony Watts. The purpose of the USCRN program is to provide an accurate series of climate observations for monitoring trends in the nation’s climate and supporting climate-impact research.
Similar to what Anthony Watts found, a 1999 paper showed that, due to station siting, 75% of the surface stations have a daily uncertainty equal to or greater than 1ºC. Sixty-four percent had a daily uncertainty equal to or greater than 2ºC (about 4ºF). The current CRN was based on work by John Christy and provides proper siting the outside the influence of the Urban Heat Island effect. According to the NOAA website:
“Data from NOAA’s premiere surface reference network. The contiguous U.S. network of 114 stations was completed in 2008. There are two USCRN stations in Hawaii and deployment of a network of 29 stations in Alaska continues. The vision of the USCRN program is to maintain a sustainable high-quality climate observation network that 50 years from now can with the highest degree of confidence answer the question: How has the climate of the Nation changed over the past 50 years?
“These stations were designed with climate science in mind. Three independent measurements of temperature and precipitation are made at each station, ensuring continuity of record and maintenance of well-calibrated and highly accurate observations. The stations are placed in pristine environments expected to be free of development for many decades. Stations are monitored and maintained to high standards and are calibrated on an annual basis. In addition to temperature and precipitation, these stations also measure solar radiation, surface skin temperature, and surface winds. They also include triplicate measurements of soil moisture and soil temperature at five depths, as well as atmospheric relative humidity for most of the 114 contiguous U.S. stations. Stations in Alaska and Hawaii provide network experience and observations in polar and tropical regions. Deployment of a complete 29-station USCRN network in Alaska began in 2009. This project is managed by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center and operated in partnership with NOAA’s Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division.”
The data D’Aleo presents start in 2005 and show little warming. This raises a major issue: Why did the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) omit a complete discussion of the temperature and precipitation trends identified by the USCRN in its Fourth National Climate Assessment (2017, 2018)? Certainly, the hard evidence indicates that the alarming conclusions of the USGCRP report need to be tempered. See links under Measurement Issues – Surface, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/us-climate-reference-network-uscrn, https://science2017.globalchange.gov/, and https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/.
Rural Electrification in India: Among the more pernicious programs announced by the environmental industry is the “War on Coal.” Each residence burning coal for heating or cooking is dirty. But modern coal-fired power plants, with appropriate scrubbers are not. “Power by wire”, rural electrification, greatly helped the US and all developed countries. The addition of scrubbers on coal-fired power plants since the 1970s has helped clean the air in the US.
According to a report in Master Resource, the government of India has announced a goal of electrifying all residences by 2022. Others report mixed results as to how successful the program is. There are complaints about metering, billing, and bill paying. Outages seem to be a major problem as well. Rural areas may experience 2 to 4 interruptions per day. But the significant efforts seem to be paying off. The fuel for electricity is coal and construction of modern coal-fired plants is underway. See links under After Paris! and Seeking a Common Ground.
Lindzen’s Acceptance: Richard Lindzen’s acceptance of SEPP’s Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award has been posted on Heartland’s website. Lindzen discusses the long list of distinguished scientists who have objected to the claims of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary driver of global warming / climate change. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Conference
Nature Nailing Mr. Mann? Nature Magazine and Nature Geographic had articles that were inconsistent and questioned Mr. Mann’s famous hockey-stick. The former had an article asserting there were no globally coherent warm and cold periods over the past 2,000 years. The latter had a paper asserting that volcanoes were the cause of the latter part of the Little Ice Age.
In private correspondence on a separate paper, physicist Donald Rapp has pointed out what is called “Global Warming” since 1880 may be better termed “Arctic Warming.” Particularly since 1910 warming has been far greater in latitudes above 60ºN than elsewhere. Above 60ºN, temperatures fell from 1940 to 1970 and rose again since. Given the complexity of the globe’s climate system, consistent global warming seems unlikely. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Additions and Corrections: Richard Lindzen made an important distinction in proper terminology when discussing the scientific method: the scientific method as commonly described refers to experimental sciences where one can have controlled experiments. The situation for observational sciences is profoundly different. There are no controlled experiments, and one cannot generally prove anything; one can only improve confidence. So, we can test hypotheses using controlled experiments. But we cannot test them using observational methods, only support or refute them.
Needless to say, testing unvalidated models against other unvalidated models, or parts thereof, which is often done and called “model experiments” does not qualify as a controlled experiment.
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
The voting is closed and the winner who most closely meets the qualification is being selected. No missing shards here, one hopes.
Number of the Week: 1998 and 2016: Roy Spencer reports that in the atmospheric temperature database reported by the University of Alabama in Huntsville, the July temperatures for 2019 were exceeded in 1998 and 2016. See links under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
The Sun’s Weather Cycle May Start in ‘Tsunamis,’ End with ‘Terminators’
A tsunami of plasma rushes through the sun before a new sunspot cycle begins.
By Passant Rabie, Space.com, July 30, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
CG2 and Ex Post Picking
By Stephen McIntyre, Climate Audit, July 31, 2019
How many silent skeptics are there at NOAA? Dr. Rex Fleming speaks out after years of working there
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 1, 2019
“A large part of the problem are the science organisations. Fleming talks about how there are three scientific organisations in the USA which will not allow discussion from any skeptical point of view and he points the finger at: American Meteorology Society (AMS), American Geophysical Union — AGU, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science — AAAS (which publishes “Science” supposedly one of the prestigious science journals in the world).”
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Hoaxing Academic Journals Now Forbidden
[A teacher at] Portland State University says submitting fake papers to journals explicitly to assess their rigour is an ethics violation.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, July 29, 2019
“Rather than celebrating the Boghossian team as satirists par excellence, since last October Portland State University [Oregon] has subjected Boghossian to three separate investigations. One determined that no animals were harmed. Another found ‘no implications of plagiarism, fabrication, and falsification.’ A third, however, determined that he violated ‘human subjects’ rights.’”
[SEPP Comment: What about the “rights” of students constantly subjected to poorly executed science?]
Why Academic Hoaxes are Deadly Serious
Tax dollars are being used to brainwash young people with arrant, dangerous nonsense.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, July 31, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
My new video – Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 14, 2019
Is CO2 a Driver of Temperature, Weather or Sea Level?
By Thomas Wysmuller, TRCS team, July 2018
[SEPP Comment: In the discussion of Tidewater Virginia, Wysmuller didn’t recognize the importance of groundwater extraction in its land subsidence.]
Maximise the current generation’s wealth and review any CO2 issues in 2050
By Sanjeev Sabhlok, Seeing the Invisible. Via The Times of India, Aug 1, 2019
“As a rule of thumb, 80 per cent of policy development should be about understanding the problem. Once a problem is understood, the solution generally commends itself.
“But in the case of climate change, policymakers have bypassed this step and are insisting on ‘fixing’ the ‘problem’.”
Inconvenient facts about the heat this summer
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, July 28, 2019
“In the last 7 and 30 days, there were more US record lows than highs.”
The 37-problem consensus
By Staff, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 31, 2019
“One dragon the good professor seems unaware of is the “purple dragon” fallacy. Some politician says their policies are saving you from purple dragons. You say there are no purple dragons. They say “See? My plan worked. You’re welcome.” And when you say “No, no, I mean there never was a threat, and there’s no such thing” they accuse you of the psychological mechanism of denial.”
The Reports of Iceland’s Glacial Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
By Anthony Watts, American Thinker, Aug 1, 2019
13th International Conference on Climate Change
Various speakers, The Heartland Institute, July 25, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Richard Lindzen accepting Frederick Seitz Award under Dinner Keynotes.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
The Dangerous Delusion of Optimal Global Warming
By Adair Turner, Project Syndicate, Aug 1, 2019
By Staff, Energy Transitions Commission, 2019
“Added up across all economic sectors, however, it’s clear that the total cost of decarbonizing the global economy cannot possibly exceed 1-2% of world GDP. In fact, the actual costs will almost certainly be far lower, because most such estimates cautiously ignore the possibility of fundamental technological breakthroughs, and maintain conservative estimates of how long and how fast cost reductions in key technologies will occur. In 2010, the International Energy Agency projected a 70% fall in solar photovoltaic equipment costs by 2030. It happened by 2017.”
“Rather than relying on apparently sophisticated models, climate-change policy must reflect judgment amid uncertainty. Current trends threaten major but inherently unpredictable adverse impacts. Limiting global warming to well below 2°C will cost at most 1-2% of GDP, and those costs will come down if strong commitments to reduce emissions unleash technological progress and learning-curve effects. Given these realities, zero by 2050 is an economically rational target.”
[SEPP Comment: Criticizing the economic models of William Nordhaus but failing to realize that the climate models have similar “delusions.”]
The Vital Next Step In Fighting Climate Change
By Steve Denning, Forbes, July 28, 2019
“What we must now do is to create a fully empowered national climate change agency, devoted exclusively to climate change, with a mandate to prepare the carefully thought-through technical basis for an audacious action plan and with the political clout to make an impact.”
[SEPP Comment; Disagree with the premise: “Climate change is the crisis of our time. As the human race sleepwalks its way towards a planetary calamity, there is a growing recognition of the need for a ‘moonshot’ aimed at addressing the greatest existential challenge we have ever faced.”]
A-listers flock to Google summit in private jets, mega yachts to talk climate change
By Emily Smith and Ebony Bowden, Page Six, July 30, 2019
Foreign Policy: Democracy is the Enemy of Climate Action
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 28, 2019
Link to article: Democracy Is the Planet’s Biggest Enemy
Young people care a lot about climate change—but most of them can’t vote. Here’s how governments can adapt to accommodate them.
By David Runciman, Foreign Policy, July 20, 2019
Against Climate Panic, for Climate Hope
By David French, National Review, July 25, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Another suggestion: the fear of CO2-causing dangerous warming is caused by those claiming to be scientists failing to apply the scientific method. Their science is unfettered by evidence.]
30 Year Anniversary of the UN 1989 “10 years to save the world” Climate Warning
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 30, 2019
Climate Change Can’t Be Left to the Scientists
Steve Bullock just wasn’t right.
By Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, July 31, 2019
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Why Should We Subsidize Tomorrow’s Rich in the Name of the Climate?
By Sanjeev Sabhlok, The Times of India, Via GWPF, July 29, 2019
Ross McKitrick: Reality check — there is no ‘climate emergency’ in Vancouver
OPINION: Clearly, there’s no climate emergency in Metro Vancouver. Amid the ordinary variability of nature, today’s weather is about the same as it’s been for as far back as the records go.
By Ross McKitrick, Vancouver Sun, July 23, 2019
12 New Papers Provide Robust Evidence The Earth Was Warmer During Medieval Times
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 29, 2019
Debate ends, spike at 11
By Staff, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 31, 2019
New German Book Casts Doubt Over Alarmist Global Warming Claims: “No Consensus” …”Even Serious Dissent”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 2, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Question the statement: “The result shows that there is general agreement on the principles of the greenhouse effect and its anthropogenic intensification. The key question is how sensitive are the globe’s temperatures to increasing CO2?]
India Green Lights Fossil Fuels, Announces Electrification and Clean Cooking for All Rural Homes by 2022
By Vijay Jayaraj, Master Resource, July 30, 2019
“India’s dreams of producing electricity for 1.3 billion people came true in 2016 when the country announced an energy surplus, i.e. energy production exceeded the demand for it. The country credited this success to its strong coal industry, which saw significant growth even as the anti-fossil global establishments were keen on making the country abandon coal.”
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Real-world Evidence that CO2 Emissions and Fossil Energy Enhance the Human Environment
By Craig Idso, ICCC13 (Panel 3: Scientific Observations), The Heartland Institute, July 25, 2019
Slides and text of Idso’s presentation
CO2 – Green Earth and Savings Lives
By H. Leighton Steward, Geologist, Environmentalist, Author, Retired energy industry exec, Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies Convention, Shreveport, Louisiana TRCS, Oct 1, 2018
Cleaner Air: 60 Years Of Progress
By Fred Lipfert, ACSH, July 23, 2019
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Response of Four Woody Ecosystems to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment
Walker, A.P., De Kauwe, M.G., Medlyn, B.E., Zaehle, S., Iversen, C.M., Asao, S., Guenet, B., Harper, A., Hickler, T., Hungate, B.A., Jain, A.K., Luo, Y., Lu, X., Lu, M., Luus, K., Megonigal, J.P., Oren, R., Ryan, E., Shu, S., Talhelm, A., Wang, Y.-P., Warren, J.M., Werner, C., Xia, J., Yang, B., Zak, D.R. and Norby, R.J. 2019. Decadal biomass increment in early secondary succession woody ecosystems is increased by CO2 enrichment. Nature Communications 10: 454, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08348-1. July 29, 2019
“The above findings represent a very positive outcome in terms of the growth and productivity of woody ecosystems in response to elevated levels of atmospheric CO2, which positive outcome will be realized in the decades to come as the air’s CO2 content continues to rise in response to humanity’s use of fossil energy. And that is great news for the terrestrial biosphere!”
Models v. Observations
Two European Professors: IPCC Climate Modeling Methodology Opens Door To “Fake Conclusions” …”Manipulations””
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 30, 2019
[SEPP Comment: As many recording stations in Siberia and Northern Canada fell rapidly, average temperatures increased rapidly.]
The importance of the CRN and what is it telling us?
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Aug 1, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Shows that the surface temperature data in the US Climate Reference Network (CRN) have significant errors prior to 2000.]
July was earth’s hottest month ever recorded
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 2, 2019
July 2019 Was Not the Warmest on Record
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 2, 2019
But, how can they know the difference? Because good data produce good weather forecasts; bad data don’t.
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
‘Hidden’ NOAA temperature data reveals that 6 of the last 9 months were below normal in the USA – and NOAA can’t even get June right
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 30, 2019
“One wonders if screaming headlines about “hottest ever” this month would even exist if the world had a global version of the U.S. Climate Reference Network where the data was quality controlled, and measurements taken far away from the human induced heat of urbanization.”
June Global Temperature falls 0.04C
By Clive Best, His Blog, July 27, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
“The global averaged surface temperature for June 2019 was 0.62C using my spherical triangulation method merging GHCNV3 with HadSST3. This is a further drop of 0.04C from May 2018. The discrepancy with GHCNV4 is however growing. V4C calculated in exactly the same way gives a June temperature of 0.75C, a rise of 0.03C, and 0.13C warmer than V3. This difference is statistically significant.”
Murray Bridge, South Australia, where thermometers record junk every day
By Jo Nova, Her Blog July 30, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Carefully mapping of what is wrong doesn’t make it right!]
Maitland SA: Another expert thermometer site — and with incinerator “forcing”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog Aug 3, 2019
Lingen Cheated: Germany’s New All-Time Record High Resulted From DWD Weather Service Lousy Station Siting
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 28, 2019
UAH Global Temperature Update for July, 2019: +0.38 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 1, 2019
EPIC: The Last Chance for National Weather Service Weather Modeling to Regain Leadership?
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Aug 2, 2019
“And the U.S. Air Force already abandoned the U.S. modeling system for a non-American model (UKMET Office Unified Model). When the U.S. military gives up the American model, you know you have a problem. I will let all of you know what happens.”
English Summer Failing To Meet Alarmist Expectations! (Again)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 1, 2019
The Incredible Heatwave Of August, 1918
The Midwest had twenty-five days over 100 degrees during August, 1918.
By Tony Heller, The Deplorable Climate science Blog, Aug 2, 2019
[SEPP Comment; Will August 2019 top it?]
North Carolina coastal flooding is worsening with climate change, population growth
By Staff, NSF, July 25, 2019
Link to paper: Recent increase in catastrophic tropical cyclone flooding in coastal North Carolina, USA: Long-term observations suggest a regime shift
Hans W. Paerl, et al., Scientific Reports, July 23, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Hurricanes targeted North Carolina in 1954, 1960 and since 1999 with the precision of a rifle marksman?]
New Orleans and hurricane Katrina – the correct story
By Morten Jødal, biologist, (translated from Norwegian by Tim Crome), WUWT, Aug 2, 2019
“The article was written based on the background information provided by the Hurricane Katrina exhibition at the Louisiana State Museum, New Orleans.”
[SEPP Comment: Leaves out the successful lawsuits by environmental groups using FEMA to stop building of an effective barrier gate system to protect the city, and the local politicians diverting federal monies to build levees for personal benefit.]
Urban Flooding – It’s Not About Climate
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 31, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The main problem is poor storm water management, not storm water.]
Where to bury a reef
By Staff, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 31, 2019
Biblical City Ur Used To Sit On The Persian Gulf Coast 6000 Years Ago. Today Its Ruins Sit 200 km Inland.
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 1, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The key question is how tectonically stable is the area?
Changing climate boosts Maine lobster industry — for now
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, July 31, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Surface temperatures should not affect the industry. Divers can get lobsters off Maryland, in areas that provide lobsters shelter. Maine’s rocky coast provides protection. The decline of the industry in Rhode Island may be the result of overfishing, not water surface temperatures.]
Climate Science Meets Reality at the Water’s Edge
By Jack Weatherall, Quadrant, Aug 3, 2019
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Glaciologists Unveil Most Precise Map Ever of Antarctic Ice Velocity
Project Utilized 25 Years of Data From Six international Satellite Missions
Press Release Bompey and Bell, AGU 100, July 29, 2019
Link to paper: Continent‐wide, interferometric SAR phase, mapping of Antarctic ice velocity
By J. Mouginot, E. Rignot, and B. Scheuchl, Geophysical Research Letters, July 29, 2019
How much water does a snowpack hold?
Press Release, NSF, July 19, 2019
Link to paper: Converting snow depth to snow water equivalent using climatological variables
By David F. Hill, et al, The Cryosphere, July 4, 2019
Sea ice adjacent to all major polar bear onshore summer refugia at 31 July 2019
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Aug 2, 2019
Scientists say 200 Arctic reindeer died last year due to climate change
By Rebecca Klar, The Hill, July 31, 2019
[SEPP Comment: What is the size of the herd and the expected life span? Why blame weather events on climate change?]
Shockingly thick first year ice between Barents Sea and the North Pole in mid-July
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 29, 2019
RCMP on manhunt spot a fat polar bear far from the coast of Western Hudson Bay
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 28, 2019
Study in Antarctic waters reveals why Ross Ice Shelf melts in summer
Local factors influencing ice shelf’s stability refine sea level predictions
Press Release, NSF, July 26, 2019
Evolution of the Seasonal Surface Mixed Layer of the Ross Sea, Antarctica, Observed With Autonomous Profiling Floats
By David F. Porter, et al, JGR Oceans, July 5, 2019
Volcanoes shaped the climate before humankind
Press release, University of Bern, July 24, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Link to paper: Last phase of the Little Ice Age forced by volcanic eruptions
By Article Stefan Brönnimann, et al. Nature Geoscience, July 24, 2019
“The study shows that the pre-industrial climate was not constant: if one takes this cold period as the starting point for current global warming, the climate has already warmed up more than assumed in the current discussions.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Ignore Climate Hysteria: World Grain Crop Set to Break Record
By Staff, The Weekly Times, AU, Via GWPF, July 31, 2019
French 2019 soft wheat crop to be 2nd largest in history – Agritel
By Fawad Magsood, Business Recorder, July 30, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
ABC Climate Zombie Myths and Fantasy Strawmen. Who’s feeding the trolls?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog July 28, 2019
UK’s Ten Warmest Years–What The BBC Forgot To Tell You!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 31, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate scientists drive stake through heart of skeptics’ argument
New research shows that the recent rise in global temperatures is unlike anything seen on Earth during the past 2,000 years.
By Jaclyn Jeffrey-Wilensky, NBC News, July 24, 2019
Link to first paper: No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era
By Raphael Neukom et al., Nature, July 24, 2019
Link to second paper: Last phase of the Little Ice Age forced by volcanic eruptions
By Stefan Brönnimann, Nature Geoscience, July 24, 2019
Get ready for new forms of extreme weather: hurricanes plus heat waves
By Sarah DeWeerdt, Anthropocene, July 23, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Mongolia’s Capital Banned Coal To Fix Its Pollution Problem. Will It Work?
By Emily Kwong, NPR, July 30, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The air is similar to Pittsburg in the 1920s. The article highlights a critical need for coal-fired centralized power plants with appropriate filters to replace coal for residential heating. The headline writer missed the point.]
Coal’s Demise Quickens in Europe as Market Shift Idles Plants
Use of the dirtiest fossil fuel has dropped this year as economics favor using cheaper natural gas.
By Jeremy Hodges, Mathew Carr , and William Wilkes, Bloomberg, July 22, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Typical propaganda photos of steam coming from chimneys by Bloomberg.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Fake “Heatwave for Greenland” Claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 30, 2019
Greenland Ice sheet Meltdown Scare–Except It’s Not True
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 1, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Child prophets and proselytizers of climate catastrophe
By Andy West, Climate Etc. July 29, 2019
‘Eco-Anxiety’: Vogue Advises Parents On Kids With Climate Change ‘Nightmares’
By Gabriel Hays, MRC News Busters, July 29, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Local governments should steer clear of climate dogma
By Charles Battig, CFACT, July 27, 2019
Questioning European Green
Electricity Bills Could Double to Bail out new Wind Farms, Report Claims,
By Staff, Sunday Telegraph, UK, July 27, 2019
Link to report: Who’s the Patsy? Offshore wind’s high-stakes poker game
By Gordon Hughes, GWPF, 2019
One view is that a group of large and sophisticated overseas investors have convinced themselves to tear up large numbers of bank notes in the cold maritime conditions of the northern North Sea. An alternative view is that investors are prepared to bet that the UK Government will force through a large increase in the wholesale price of electricity, perhaps through a large increase in carbon taxes, thus allowing the investors to make a reasonable return. In that case, the ultimate patsy at the poker table is the British public.
Given the past record of UK ministers and officials in the energy field, this seems to be the more likely outcome. The only real doubt is how the capitulation will be dressed up and what the implications will be for the UK’s economy
[SEPP Comment: Those claiming offshore wind costs are dropping may find it is not so.]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Gwyn Morgan: Here are a few climate-change head scratchers for Canadian voters to ponder
An eclectic list of little-known facts, head-scratching paradoxes and utter hypocrisy
By Gwyn Morgan, Financial Post, July 30, 2019
AOC’s Green New Deal would cost $70K-plus per household in first year: Study
Research by free-market think-tanks estimates costs in five states
By Valerie Richardson, The Washington Times, July 30, 2019
What the Green New Deal Could Cost a Typical Household
By Kent Lassman, Daniel Turner, CEI, July 30, 2019
Quebec green fund money used for pet projects, new minister charges
By Giuseppe Valiante , The Canadian Press, July 28, 2019
The Political Games Continue
Senate Highway Bill with First-Ever Climate Title Unanimously Clears Committee
By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Aug 2, 2019
“There is also funding to make roads and bridges more resilient against the extreme weather, which some lawmakers assume will increase in the years ahead.”
[SEPP Comment: Will the increased resilience against extreme weather apply to colder weather?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
German market collapse hits European onshore wind stats
Only 2.9GW of land-based capacity added in Europe in H1, while offshore installations rise to 1.9GW
By Bernd Radowitz in Berlin, Recharge Wind, July 25, 2019
EPA and other Regulators on the March
DOE Revisits Forced Electrification (Decarbonization) Rules re Non-condensing Furnaces, Water Heaters
By Mark Krebs, Master Resource, Aug 1, 2019
Energy Issues – Non-US
Global warming: the UK’s expensive and futile gesture politics – Continued
By Ruth Lea, The Conservative Woman, Aug 1, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
“Under these circumstances, it can only be concluded the CCA’s real purpose was to demonstrate British climate leadership. This is futile gesture politics by any standards, especially as the UK’s share of global carbon emissions is just over 1 per cent.”
[SEPP Comment: Did Climate Change Act 2008 (CCA) demonstrate leadership in Russian Roulette?]
Energy Issues — US
Fixing the Rigged Market for Electricity
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 30, 2019
Milton Friedman on Crony Capitalism in the US Oil Industry
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, July 31, 2019
“Few U.S. industries sing the praises of free enterprise more loudly than the oil industry. Yet few industries rely so heavily on special governmental favors.” (Milton Friedman, 1967)
“The political power of the oil industry, not national security, is the reason for the present subsidies to the industry. International disturbances simply offer a convenient excuse.”
[SEPP Comment: Some of the issues regarding the oil industry are dated, but similar arguments are used for different industries, including wind and solar.]
Unrealistic Energy Policies Sting American Consumers
By David Spigelmyer, Real Clear Energy July 30, 2019
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
How Arctic Drilling Will Trample Junk Science Obstructionism
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 29, 2019
Net Zero Natural Gas Plant — The Game Changer
By James Conca, Forbes, July 31, 2019
[SEPP Comment: May be a great improvement. However, carbon dioxide sequestration may be problematic.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Positive Developments for Small Modular Reactors
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, July 29, 2019
Vogtle Nuclear Expansion Unlikely to Meet Aggressive Schedule Deadline
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, July 31, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Energy & Environmental Newsletter: July 29, 2019
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, July 29, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Europe’s first hyperloop a step closer to offering a green alternative to short-haul flights
Press Release, Hardt, June 26, 2019
“’After 2 years of research and hard work we are the first in Europe to complete a functional hyperloop system. Not only that, we have developed a lane-switching mechanism that allows us to build a hyperloop network in the near-future.’ – Mars Geuze, CCO Hardt Hyperloop.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
How big a battery?
By G. Cornelis van Kootena, Patrick Withey and Jon Duana, Renewable Energy, February 2020
“It will be very expensive and require a big battery to rely on 100% renewables.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The 2018 EPA Automotive Trends Report: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Fuel Economy and Technology since 1975
By Staff, EPA, March 2019 [H/t Donald Rapp]
CA auto deal pure politics, loaded with deceptive “credits”, zero climate change impact
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin, WUWT, July 30, 2019
California Dreaming and Erosion “Crises”
Guest Post by Jim Steele, July 30, 2019
Iconic California beaches have lost most of their biodiversity
By Staff, NSF, July 31, 2019
Link to press release: The Urbanization of the Beach
Some of Southern California’s most iconic and popular beaches have lost half of their biodiversity, according to marine scientists
By Sonia Fernandz, The Current, July 31, 2019
“Support for this research was provided by California Sea Grant, University of Southern California Sea Grant, the Ocean Protection Council, the National Science Foundation’s Long Term Ecological Research program, the California Coastal Commission, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the UCSB Coastal Fund.”
[SEPP Comment: Human use reduces biodiversity? What is the course of action?]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Burkina Faso is fighting malaria — with genetically modified mosquitoes
By Staff Writers, PRI, July 4, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Environmental Extremists Favor Mosquitoes Over Mankind
By Richard Trend, The Wall Street Journal, Via GWPPF, July 30, 2019
Overshoot Day: German ARD Public Television Calls For Consumers To Be Punished By “So Damn Expensive” Prices
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 31, 2019
Other Scientific News
NASA “Surprised”: Undetected City Killer Asteroid Just Whizzed By Earth
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 29, 2019
GOES-17 Mishap Investigation Board Study Completed
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Aug 02, 2019
Link to report: Public Release Summary of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-17 (GOES-17) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) Loop Heat Pipe (LHP) Mishap Investigation Board Report
By Staff, NASA, July 19, 2019
Other News that May Be of Interest
Opioids: Bad Science, Bad Policy, Bad Outcomes
By Henry I. Miller and Josh Bloom, Issues and Insights, July 26, 2019
In spite of such findings indicating that the crux of the problem is not physician-prescribed opioids but illicit fentanyl and its analogs smuggled from abroad, like the drunk in the parable the feds and state governments are looking in the wrong place.
[SEPP Comment: An all too common reaction from bureaucrats – ignore the cause of the problem, punish the patient.]
India’s tiger population surges to nearly 3,000 cats, bringing hope for endangered species
By Aris Folley, The Hill, July 30, 2019
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Bad day at the office: Climate change activists protest outside the wrong building
By Sebastian McCarthy, City A.M., July 30, 2019
Climate Geoengineering Prizewinner: Refreeze the Arctic with a Big Mobile Submarine
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 27, 2019
Fighting Climate Change with Dance: Humanities Professors Demand Representation on Science Teams
“We worry that overemphasis on science may hamper the design of effective climate solutions.”
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 2, 2019
Friday Funny: Experts Warn We Have Only 12 Years Left Until They Change The Timeline On Global Warming Again
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 2, 2019
Well done, Greta Thunberg!
By Charles the Moderator, WUWT, July 30, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Surely the boat, sails, etc. will not contain hydrocarbons.]
1. Compromise Can Promote Green Policy Goals
Our energy future will look different than its past. That transition is under way, but it doesn’t have to be a binary choice between 100% renewables or unmitigated carbon emissions from fossil fuels
Letter By Kathy Fackler, Citizens’ Climate Lobby, July 31, 2019
SUMMARY: boldface added]
Regarding Robert Bryce’s “A Reality Check for Solar and Wind” (op-ed, July 22): Simple math may show that oil and gas production is leaving solar and wind in the shade, but simple physics shows that carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuels damage our climate and our future prosperity. Our energy future will look different than its past. That transition is under way, but it doesn’t have to be a binary choice between 100% renewables or unmitigated carbon emissions from fossil fuels.
“Smart policy planning would protect our energy supply while also reducing the costs and risks associated with greenhouse-gas emissions. On Jan. 17 the Journal published “Economists’ Statement on Carbon Dividends” signed by 3,500 U.S. economists, including all living former chairs of the Federal Reserve and 15 former chairmen of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, urging immediate national action to address climate change, and calling a carbon tax “’the most cost-effective lever to reduce carbon emissions at the scale and speed that is necessary.’
“If the cost of pollution is included in the cost of energy, the market will efficiently shift toward cleaner forms of energy, including natural gas, renewables and nuclear.”
[SEPP Comment: The physics of the greenhouse effect is about as simple as the physics of quantum mechanics. The fact the economists agree that taxes are the most effective way to stop consumption of a particular good does not mean the tax is needed or desirable. Dividends returning the taxes is highly questionable.]
2. California Bans Trump
The state passes a law to bar him from the primary ballot.
Editorial, WSJ, July 31, 2019
SUMMARY: The article states:
“Remember all that angst and anger expressed by progressives that President Trump would ignore judicial orders, rig election laws, and maybe even refuse to give up power if he loses in 2020? We’re still waiting for any of that to happen. But that hasn’t stopped Democrats from stretching the Constitution to defeat Mr. Trump.
“The latest example came Tuesday from California when Governor Gavin Newsom signed a law that would bar Mr. Trump from the state primary ballot unless he discloses his tax returns. That’s right. California Democrats are trying to keep a sitting President from running for re-election in their state.
“‘These are extraordinary times and states have a legal and moral duty to do everything in their power to ensure leaders seeking the highest offices meet minimal standards, and to restore public confidence,’ Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, said in a statement.
“Even if this means rigging the ballot to defeat an opponent they loathe? Apparently so. We’re on record saying Mr. Trump should release his tax returns, but there’s nothing in the Constitution that says he must. Americans can factor his refusal into their voting calculations, and most Democratic presidential candidates have released their tax returns or promised that they will.
California may be violating the Constitution with this law. Mr. Trump’s lawyers are promising a legal challenge, and they have a strong case that a state can’t add onerous qualifications for ballot access that go beyond the Constitution’s requirements for age, citizenship and residency. That was the basis for the Supreme Court decision barring term limits in Congressional elections.
“This is one reason that Jerry Brown, Mr. Newsom’s predecessor, vetoed a similar bill in 2017. ‘First, it may not be constitutional,’ Mr. Brown wrote in a veto statement, and the rest is worth quoting at length:
“‘Second, it sets a ‘slippery slope’ precedent. Today we require tax returns, but what would be next? Five years of health records? A certified birth certificate? High school report cards? And will these requirements vary depending on which political party is in power? A qualified candidate’s ability to appear on the ballot is fundamental to our democratic system. For that reason, I hesitate to start down a road that well might lead to an ever escalating set of differing state requirements for presidential candidates.’
The article concludes by discussing the possibility of Republicans doing the same in other states against Democratic nominees and the possibility of Trump appealing.