Reposted from Awesome Weather Facts
By Chris Martz | July 26, 2019
Follow @ChrisMartzWX
It’s summer, temperatures are hot － sometimes record hot － and as usual, climate alarmism reaches record highs, and climate activists have a field day with it by fear mongering rather than reasoning with facts and data. Every week, various weather events end up getting caught in the spokes of the wheel of climate; it’s an endless cycle. Rinse, wash, repeat. This time, it’s the [second] European heatwave.
A Bit of Historical Perspective
While countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium have recorded their hottest temperatures on record this week, Paris’s record high of 108.7°F (42.6°C) on Thursday, July 25 made international headlines and consequently sparked climate insanity.¹
The graph below (Figure 1) shows the maximum temperature in Paris, France for each year since 1900.² As indicated by the red trendline, there has been a noticeable increase in the annual maximum temperature in Paris over the long run, however, the trend is not alarming.
Paris’s previous hottest temperature record stood for nearly 72 years.³ On July 28, 1947, the city reached 104.7°F (40.4°C).³ Paris’s high of 108.7°F (42.6°C) on Thursday broke the old record by 4°F (2.2°C), which is an incredible feat by any stretch of the imagination. To break an all-time temperature record by 4°F in summer, let alone tie it, is extremely difficult to do, even with global warming.
Figure 1. Paris, France annual maximum temperature since 1900.
The 1947 heatwave was an incredible one in Europe and it’s forever stitched in the memories of elders.
In Paris, the heatwave lasted for 12 days (July 22 through August 2) with highs consistently at or above 90°F (32.2°C).³ Two days were at or above 100°F (37.8°C), and four were at or above 95°F (35°C).³
What really stuck out to me when comparing maximum temperatures this summer with 1947 is that maximum temperatures seem to trace those of 1947 (Figure 2). It’s quite interesting and odd.
Figure 2. Paris, France daily maximum temperature for the summer of 1947 and 2019.
Is Climate Change to Blame?
Like most scientists, I agree that climate change － both natural fluctuations or man-made forcings like land use and urbanization － should cause weather patterns and the intensity and/or frequency of extreme weather or weather-related events to change.
It’s indeed possible that the warmer atmosphere today as compared to the 1980s may have made this heatwave slightly more intense. However, nobody knows for sure because heatwaves have always occurred; some are just worse than others. It’s summer.
While this heatwave is the latest poster child for the “ecological breakdown,” there is a natural explanation for this heatwave, as with all other weather events.
There’s been a persistent weather pattern that’s causing this bake fest. A large area of high pressure is stationed over Europe and an area of low pressure is situated off of the coast of Ireland.⁴ The wind flow around the pressure centers are drawing in air from the south, which is blowing hot, Saharan air into Europe (Figure 3).⁴ This natural process occurs with or without 415 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Figure 3. European surface map. – Met Office.
The air over France at the time of Paris’s record high was relatively dry (Figure 4), and as all weather hobbyists or meteorologists should know, dry air heats up faster than saturated air. Had the dew points (and thus relative humidity) been higher Thursday afternoon, the record high may not have been set!
Figure 4. 2-meter relative humidity in France. – weathermodels.com.
It’s also worth pointing out that Paris, like any other large city, is a massive urban heat island (UHI).
When land is developed, urban infrastructure takes place of land that was once covered with vegetation like grass and particularly forests.⁵ Development limits the amount of plant transpiration (evaporation that cools plant leaves and air temperatures).⁵ Buildings like factories, skyscrapers, houses, and shops, not to mention automobiles and dark urban infrastructure like roads and black roofs absorb and retain more heat than grassy surfaces or forested areas.⁵
All of the heat generated by these objects and surfaces make its way into the atmosphere above the city adding supplemental heat that’s not natural.⁵
I’ve seen some Tweets from a few meteorologists and other people who claim that the UHI is only or mostly effective at night.
While there is some truth to that (as most of the warming seen in the U.S., for instance, is with overnight temperatures), NOAA has created maps from various U.S. cities of both high and low temperatures.⁶ The map below (Figure 5) is of Baltimore, Maryland’s 3:00 p.m. afternoon temperature on August 29, 2018.⁶ Notice how the city is noticeably warmer than its more rural surroundings, even in the afternoon! I know this from personal experience because I live in Northern Virginia, not too far from Baltimore and Washington, D.C.
Figure 5. Baltimore, MD UHI effect.
My Conclusion
While it’s incredible that Paris exceeded their record high on Thursday, it’s important that we look not only at trends, but also give a bit of perspective.
One can not make a preconceived notion on one daily temperature measurement.
You have to first look at whether or not a record temperature occurred in an urban area, then see what the upper air pattern is doing, and lastly look at trends and previous years with similar atmospheric conditions.
Skeptics who use cold and snow as evidence that global warming is a hoax are always reminded by climate activists that weather and climate are vastly different, and they’d be correct.
So, why then do activists blame a single record high temperature, let alone a summer heatwave on climate change? That I can not answer. It seems to me that it’s “do as I say, not as I do.”
The bottom line is this: heatwaves happen, it’s summer, and it’s hot.
REFERENCES
[1] Leister, Eric. “Paris breaks all-time high temperature as deadly heat wave grips Europe.” AccuWeather. July 25, 2019. Accessed July 26, 2019. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/scorching-heat-produces-all-time-record-highs-in-belgium-netherlands-as-western-europe-swelters-under-heat-wave/70008886.
[2] “Annual Maximum of Monthly Maximum of Daily Maximum Temperature.” KNMI Climate Explorer. Accessed July 26, 2019. http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnFR000007150_max12_anom_max1_anom.dat.
[3] “Maximum Temperature PARIS/LE BOURGET.” KNMI Climate Explorer. Accessed July 26, 2019. http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnFR000007150.dat.
[4] “Surface pressure charts.” Met Office. July 26, 2019. Accessed July 26, 2019. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure.
[5] “Satellites Pinpoint Drivers of Urban Heat Islands in the Northeast.” NASA. Accessed July 26, 2019. https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/heat-island-sprawl.html.
[6] Herring, David. “Citizen Scientists take to the streets to map the hottest places in ten U.S. cities.” NOAA Climate.gov. July 24, 2019. Accessed July 26, 2019. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/citizen-scientists-take-streets-map-hottest-places-ten-us-cities.
Posted by Chris Martz Weather at
4:28 PM
Where is the weather station for Paris?
The Baltimore map is a good illustration of the Urban Heat Island effect, and it’s magnitude in one case.
The news media told us about the record heat in France, but did anyone report on the record cold in Russia?
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/07/25/snow-may-hit-moscow-region-next-week-while-europe-reels-from-heat-wave-a66573
https://www.iceagenow.info/record-cold-in-russia-2/
I’m very, very tired of the same old BS from the climate calamity crowd shouting that hot is climate and cold is weather. Very tired indeed. This nonsense is long past it’s best by date. How about we focus the money and effort on solving real world problems that will make a difference in people’s quality of life rather than political agendas- just a silly thought I know there’s no money or glory in doing the right thing, sad but true.
Location of station?
Length of service ?
Outside influences ?
Add another few deg F and they can match our local record .
“When yer dry ya fry ….”
Methinks the Paris of 1948 was a lot less urban than the Paris of 2019.
To be fair, it does appear that something has changed since about 1975 (as shown in Fig. 1). That doesn’t mean that humans are responsible, but there does appear to be a kink in the trend(s), leading to an increasing slope in the last ~45 years. That should be addressed.
Whatever happened to “weather is not climate?”
In 1953 Cole Porter published a song, “I love Paris”. One of the lines is, “I love Paris in the summer—when it sizzles!”
We often overlook contemporary comments. Is this a case where a comment from 70 years ago reflects on what is being measured now? And puts it in perspective?
Too soon we forget that the Liberation of Paris during World War II occurred on August 25, 1944. And 3 years later, 1947, it was surely still a “dark” city with a scarcity of “heat trapping” automobiles, buildings and infrastructure …….. compared to what it now is.
If one adjusted for the horrendous increase in the Heat Island Effect from a “Paris of July 28, 1947” …….. to a “Paris of July 25, 2019” …….. Paris would surely have been far hotter in 1947.
please don’t use this term > extreme weather
Evidence that this record temperature is in fact due to “climate change” can be shown by examining the list of LOW temperatures in France: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_extreme_temperatures_in_France#Low_Temperatures
…
Note that not a single one is in the 21st century. You have to go back 34 years into the past to find a record low temperature in all of France.
The 1947 heatwave mention interested me.
I am a keen follower of Bordeaux wines and Michael Broadbent in his Wine Guides speaks happily of the heatwave conditions in the growing period leading up to the 1947 vintage.
I can assure you from personal drinking experience that 1947 produced magnificent wines, and is often bracketed with 1945 and 1949 as wonderful post war vintages. The two ( warmer) decades of this century have done no harm to Bordeaux vintages.
2005, 2009,2010, 2012, 2015, 2016 etc. produced remarkable vintages.
More global warming please!
The present weather pattern over France and other parts of Europe is almost identical as to what occurs every Summer here in South Australia.
Most of this State is desert, so when the weather pattern causes air to move South from the Tropics, it passes over the interior which is desert, and we get a heat wave.
It usually lasts three days, but if its a slow moving system then the
the hot weather lasts much longer.
Here in our retirement village in Gawler where it can reach 42 C, the only advice from the manager is to drink lots of water and stay indoors with the air conditioner on. No one dies.
MJE VK5ELL
We just spent 6 weeks touring Spain and Portugal. The cities are giant stone piles. There is little breeze and clouds were scarce. It was warmest in Madrid. If you were in a marble paved plaza surrounded by 4-6 floor stone buildings it was uncomfortable in the sun. Find shade and it’s OK. I suspect the reporting stations are not ideally situated unless you are selling fear. The addition of thousands of AC units in recent years has doubtless raised temperatures as well. Step outside the city or into a park and the temperature is easily 10 to 15 F cooler. Drive into the countryside and it is quite tolerable. People, locals and tourists, generally had no trouble and the streets and outdoor cafes are packed.
We stayed in B&B flats in the old central parts of the cities. Most of our rooms were not air conditioned. A portable fan was enough.
Don’t believe the hype.
The same in Germany. 42.6° C in Lingen, all time high? Nope. Here is why:
DWD, Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Met Office) denies that there is anything wrong with that station, blatantly ignoring their own rules. Manipulation at its best/worst. There are certainly more UHI like that around.
The record breaking hot temps in Paris were due to all the good looking french woman that country is noted for with their stylish way of dressing,especially in the summertime.
It is slow, slugging work, but I am now updating my 5-year-old analysis of the maximum temperature derived heat waves of 1, 3, 5 and 10 days of consecutive heat for the 5 main capital cities of Australia. These have long records, some from the 1860s and collectively they house some 90% of our population.
Here, the official line is that heatwaves are becoming longer, hotter and more frequent. My analysis, using simple algebra, clearly shows that these assertions are supported is few cases, but are quite wrong for the majority of combinations. The official position is unsupportable for the cities where most of us live.
I hope to post on WUWT shortly.
Geoff S
What a view it must be from the Eyefull Tower.
My first thought is that they are in serious need of a French version of the Surface Stations Project.
“So, why then do activists blame a single record high temperature, let alone a summer heatwave on climate change?”
They don’t. That is just a zombie strawman.
AGW doesn’t Cause them but it obviously is going to make them worse.
” …both natural fluctuations or man-made forcings like land use and urbanization”
These are not forcings, but represent changes to the system. Only the Sun is a proper source of forcing. Calling changes to the system forcing is a bastardization of equivalence applied by consensus climate science to hide what equivalence means. Changes to the system can be considered equivalent to a change in forcing holding the system constant, but other than changes that affect albedo, they do not represent a physical change to the forcing. None the less, even a change in albedo can be considered a change in forcing while keeping albedo constant.
A simple test to determine what is and what is not forcing is to consider its effect in the absence of solar forcing. If it has no effect on the steady state, then it’s not forcing. Per Bode’s definition, forcing is the signal input to the system.
Be on the lookout for some interesting weather over NW Russia during early August that’s likely to get far less coverage in the press. As Polar air will drive down across the area and send temps well below there averages and may even bring the first snows of the season.
But, What was the humidity?
Mac
What bothers me about all this is that the current media coverage of summer high temperatures announced in advance that “Europe is going to experience a record-setting heat wave”. My cynical side wonders to what extent this leads to numbers being gently nudged upwards by a degree or two, to match the overheated expectations.
It’s hard to observe the current state of climate science with becoming terminally cynical. They want “climate” to be hotter than ever, and they want droughts and floods and hurricanes and cyclones to be worse than ever, and the temptation to nudge and fudge the data to match expectations must be very strong. I worry that when science is enlisted in the service of politics, rigor might be left behind.