Claim: Northern States to have Global Warming by 2050

Artists impression of Minnesota after global warming.
Artists impression of Minnesota after global warming. Source Minnesotans for Global Warming.

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

A new study suggests that by 2050 people in Northern states might enjoy real Summers.

Cities of the future: visualizing climate change to inspire action

Our Climate Future

Millions marching the streets, daily articles in every newspaper and heartfelt pleas: never before has the topic of climate change been so omnipresent. The problem: We only have 11 years until passing the point of no return. If carbon emissions remain unabated, the Earth will be 1.5° C warmer by 2100 and the costs of climate change under a business as usual scenario will exceed $12 trillion by 2050. But what does this mean? 

The imminence of the climate threat requires unified actions across all sectors of society. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that facts and data, which are often hard to understand, do not necessarily persuade people to act. Behavioral change is much more likely to be inspired by visualizations that make climate issues tangible.

Introduction

With our analysis, we aim to do just this. Rather than describing quantitative change variables, we paired the predicted climate conditions of 520 major cities in 2050 with analogues conditions of cities around the world today. We thereby demonstrate concrete scenarios for the future of the life in those cities. By making data relatable, we hope to motivate citizens and policy makers to adapt their decision making accordingly.  

Read more: https://crowtherlab.pageflow.io/cities-of-the-future-visualizing-climate-change-to-inspire-action

If you wade through their tedious web presentation you finally get a website, which after a little navigation yields the actual study;

Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues

Published: July 10, 2019

Jean-Francois Bastin , Emily Clark, Thomas Elliott, Simon Hart, Johan van den Hoogen, Iris Hordijk, Haozhi Ma, Sabiha Majumder, Gabriele Manoli, Julia Maschler, Lidong Mo,Devin Routh, Kailiang Yu, Constantin M. Zohner, Thomas W. Crowther

Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the ‘consensus gap’ between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid’s climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech’s climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change.

Read more: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0217592

Reading a bit further, we encounter this gem;

The proportion of shifting cities varied consistently across the world. Cities in northern latitudes will experience the most dramatic shifts in extreme temperature conditions (Fig 2C and Fig 2D). For example, across Europe, both summers and winters will get warmer, with average increases of 3.5°C and 4.7°C, respectively. These changes would be equivalent to a city shifting ~1,000 km further south towards the subtropics, i.e. a velocity ~20 km.year-1, under current climate conditions (Fig 2C and Fig 2D). Consequently, by 2050, striking changes will be observed across the northern hemisphere: Madrid’s climate in 2050 will be more similar to the current climate in Marrakech than to Madrid’s climate today; London will be more similar to Barcelona, Stockholm to Budapest; Moscow to Sofia; Portland to San Antonio, San Francisco to Lisbon, Tokyo to Changsha, etc(Fig 3S2 Table).

Read more: Same link as above

Let’s imagine for a moment the unlikely possibility that this study is correct.

What is so bad about moving 1000km closer to the tropics?

People like myself voluntarily live in very warm climates. Its not so bad – no freezing your proverbials off on cold winter mornings.

And its not like people wouldn’t have time to adjust.

Florida is the place people retire, because of its gentle warm climate. Most people who move to Florida don’t have any trouble adjusting.

As for more rainfall seasonality, so what? Just build a few more reservoirs. Surely the engineering capabilities of 2050 will be up to the job of collecting a little more rainwater.

I actually enjoy reports like this – all doom and gloom and hyperbole in the introduction, but when you lift the cover on the cage of their monster it turns out to be an inconsequential little mouse.

No wonder they built a funky web presentation to try to make their report look impressive.

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David S
July 11, 2019 12:17 pm

If the temperature of Detroit increases by 2C then Detroit’s climate will be about like that of Indianapolis or Columbus, Ohio. Oh No! We’re all gonna die!
https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/US/average-annual-temperatures-large-cities.php

Reply to  David S
July 12, 2019 10:37 am

My point exactly. I live in The Netherlands. Which is a tiny mostly flat country. It measures 200km by 300 km appr. One interesting fact is that the average temperature difference between the north and the south is 2 degr. C. Which is according to the IPCC the difference between habitable and certain death. The people from the North have all kinds of opinions about the South and it’s inhabitants (remember they are only 300km or 190 miles apart.)
Being uninhabitable, scorching, certain death and end of humanity are not amongst those opinions.
And when the Dutch national teams plays in their characteristic orange outfits we are all one!

You have to be stark raving to hold the opinion that one side of The Netherlands is already in a warming crisis based on the temp delta. Totally bonkers.

commieBob
July 11, 2019 12:18 pm

How much of the urban warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect? As cities grow larger, they get warmer. link

July 11, 2019 12:30 pm

The PLoS paper lists 15 authors. The first author listed as the Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Supervision, Writing” author. The other 14 including the senior author are listed as “review & editing”.

Strangely none of them saw this error in their Results section discussing their Fig 2A :
“Overall 78% of the 520 Future Cities studied present a climate within the hypervolume representing covered combinations of climate conditions. Therefore, 22% of the Future Cities’ climate conditions would disappear from this current climatic domain (Fig 2A). As such, 22% of the world’s cities are likely to exist in a climatic regime that does current exist on the planet today.

And as far as hotter and drier goes, I can tell you for certain none of these Swiss academics have ever spent a June-July-August in Phoenix, Arizona. They followed that cucked-up sentence (above) with this gem statement:
“The situation is even more pronounced in the tropics, with 30% of cities experiencing novel climate conditions essentially because the climate will get drier.”

Someone should go tell the IPCC WG1 authors that the hydrologic cycle is going to slow and thus the tropics are going to get drier. First the history, AR5 WG Chapter 2, p 202 has this statement along with the historical graphing of the precipitation data:
“As a result the period 1951–2008 shows no significant overall trend in tropical land precipitation in any of the datasets (Table 2.10). Longer term trends (1901–2008) in the tropics, shown in Table 2.10, are also non-significant for each of the four data sets.”

As for “future”, the IPCC’s chicken-bone and voodoo models say this about tropical precip:
“In the tropics, precipitation changes exhibit strong regional contrasts, with increased precipitation over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and decreases over much of the subtropical ocean. However, decreases are not projected to be larger than natural 20-year variations anywhere until the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario. ”
and this:”Over large landmasses, the direct effect of CO2 on precipitation is the opposite owing to the small thermal inertia of land surfaces (Andrews et al., 2010; Bala et al., 2010; Cao et al., 2012; Bony et al., 2013)” (AR5 Chapter 12, pages 1079-1080).

As far as the hydrologic cycle goes, the IPCC AR5 says this:
“Projected climate changes from simulations assessed in this report (shown schematically in FAQ 12.2, Figure 1) generally show an increase in precipitation in parts of the deep tropics and polar latitudes that could exceed 50% by the end of the 21st century under the most extreme emissions scenario. In contrast, large areas of the subtropics could have decreases of 30% or more. In the tropics, these changes appear to be governed by increases in atmospheric water vapour and changes in atmospheric circulation that further concentrate water vapour in the tropics and thus promote more tropical rainfall. “ (FAQ 12.2 | How Will the Earth’s Water Cycle Change, Chapter 12, AR5)

So it appears that in communicating “climate change” by environmental studies groups, any old stuff can be made up to fit a narrative, even if it doesn’t adhere to IPCC scripture, as long as an alarmist message is presented.

tom0mason
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 11, 2019 1:52 pm

Yes indeed Joel O’Bryan,
these people with their utter belief in ‘IPCC’s chicken-bone and voodoo models’ (nice phrase 😉 ) show themselves to be non-credible alarmists.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
July 12, 2019 12:41 pm

And James Snook – July 11, 2019 at 12:20 pm – appears to endorse Tarot cards.

My own idealized mechanism for infallible predictions is to ensure that many chimpanzees have darts available, and typewriters, and also whisky.
Much whisky. And time.
Thus ensuring all predictions are made. Some will be found to be infallible

Note – mods – this is a thought experiment only; no anthropoid ape was inebriated [or even inconvenienced] in making this infallible prediction about the Climate Emergency.

Auto
I will keep the secret about which will be infallible . . .

mikeyj
July 11, 2019 12:32 pm

Weather “up north” is too cold. California is the ticket.

Joe G
July 11, 2019 12:33 pm

My bet would be on the side of we will have problems breathing the air because of too much CO2 before CO2 causes a 1.5C increase in temps. CO2 still only emits three different wavelengths. Only two of those is in the thermal range and only one of those is relevant. 92% of what the earth emits is still invisible to CO2. And only a little less than 1/2 of that will be emitted in the direction of the planet.

With more CO2 it will just get in the way of the emissions as they head back towards earth.

Bruce Cobb
July 11, 2019 12:39 pm

Visualization is important. If only we could “see” CO2 like St. Greta can, then we would know how dangerous and evil it is. Maybe some more climate movies, showing how bad the “climate crisis” will be in say, 2040, if we fail to act. Yes, more climate movies. That’s the ticket.

Robert W Turner
July 11, 2019 12:40 pm

ROFLMAO! These quacks need sued, seriously. They are a waste of tax dollars and are publicly proclaiming the equivalent of shouting “fire” in a crowded theater.

So who plans on starting an orange grove in Washington D.C.? Hey, maybe someone should start a vineyard in Oslo, or an alligator farm in Des Moines. I look forward to buying my coffee straight from the plantations in Lubbock, TX and growing Avocado in my front yard.

July 11, 2019 12:52 pm

As I moved in younger years from Berlin / Germany to mediterranean coast in South of France I had about 1.300 kms to drive to south 😀

July 11, 2019 1:02 pm

2019 plus 11 years = 2030! The alleged point of no return scenario for these alarmists.
2019 plus 31 years – 2050! Where alleged climate change impacts cost $12 trillion per year!
* Right now, an estimated $1.5 trillion per year is wasted on ineffectual efforts in a pretense to address global warming. Those are not global warming caused costs!
* Every year between now and 2050 will allegedly incur an additional $387 billion dollars of global warming costs.

N.B. Using the recent fashionable name of “climate change” identifies the intended scam.
N.B. Isn’t it amazing when desperate alarmists pull numbers, facts, imaginary scenarios and specious claims from their nether regions!?

“Our Climate Future
Millions marching the streets, daily articles in every newspaper and heartfelt pleas: never before has the topic of climate change been so omnipresent.”

Another research claim basing itself upon complicit media endless hype.

“The problem: We only have 11 years until passing the point of no return.”

Use a thoroughly bogus claim.

“The imminence of the climate threat requires unified actions across all sectors of society. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that facts and data, which are often hard to understand, do not necessarily persuade people to act.”

Make a false claim about difficulty of understanding data. Meaning that there are zero directly observable climate effects; so the alleged researchers muddy up the obvious while implying alarmists versions of data will eventually have value.

An admission that alarmists crying wolf for thirty years is near ineffective.

“Behavioral change is much more likely to be inspired by visualizations that make climate issues tangible.
Introduction
With our analysis, we aim to do just this. Rather than describing quantitative change variables, we paired the predicted climate conditions of 520 major cities in 2050 with analogues conditions of cities around the world today. We thereby demonstrate concrete scenarios for the future of the life in those cities. By making data relatable, we hope to motivate citizens and policy makers to adapt their decision making accordingly. ”

When crying wolf fail, ramp up the alleged dangers; i.e. now these alleged researchers are shrieking ‘wolves’ are coming.
The exact same dangers that fail to motivate people; only more, sooner and directly relatable. Yeah, right…

Diarrhetic buzzard excrement dressed up with spoiled shaving soap.
Apparently compiled by alarmists with Pre Traumatic Stress Syndrome, who are unable to communicate their excessive fears.

Sara
Reply to  ATheoK
July 11, 2019 2:53 pm

Do you think they know what snow is?

tty
July 11, 2019 1:23 pm

“Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha.”

One might have thought that these yahoos might have checked some basic facts, but no. Here is the difference in annual average temperature for the city pairs:

Stockholm – Budapest: 4.6 C
London – Barcelona: 5.9 C
Moscow-Sofia: 6.0 C
Seattle-San Francisco 3.4 C
Tokyo-Changsha 3.0 C

So global warming is apparently going twice as fast in Europe as in East Asia or North America, for it couldn’t possibly be that these people do not realize that the north-south temperature gradient is very different in different places, could it? Or that it depends on things like the distance to the nearest coast, ocean currents, altitude etc.

In any case these figures mean that in Europe for the next 30 years the temperature is supposed to rise as much every five years as it has in the last 150 years, starting immediately (in the US and China however apparently only every ten years).

For if the temperature rise should continue at the same rate as the last 150 years the climate in Stockholm for example will only have migrated about halfway to Visby (which lies about 120 miles south) by 2050.

Rob_Dawg
July 11, 2019 1:29 pm

> [Climate shift] Seattle to San Francisco

Oh yeah, that’s a way to scare the proles.

Vuk
July 11, 2019 1:53 pm

Don’t bother, just go out and blow your savings.
The Telegraph: 18 months to save the world

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Vuk
July 11, 2019 2:45 pm

Hey you left out the best part. That is Prince Charles!

God save the Queen, and let us pray that she out lives her son.

CJ Fritz
July 11, 2019 1:56 pm

Highly dubious claims at best.
Contrary to popular belief, it DOES get hot in MN in the summer. (depending on your definition of hot) Not so much that it gets into the triple digits, (although it has, in my lifetime) BUT the combination of heat and humidity pumped in from the Gulf of Mexico can make for a miserable August, that would make an Arizonan plead to go back to Phoenix, where at least it is a dry heat.
Human caused climate change will never offset the effect of the big lake (Superior, just for clarification) which currently sits as I type this at a balmy 40F degree water temperature, and has a dramatic effect on all surrounding areas up to 50 miles from the water.
So, I guess if it starts to feel like Knoxville, TN here in my neck of the woods, I’ll just go have a dip in the lake.
But I am still going to raise a big red BS flag for this piece of trash, as I prefer to stay away from Duluth. Many decades of Democrat rule there have turned it into a giant money-sucking, wallet-emptying, “tax-everything, and then tax it some more” nightmare of epic proportions, and I don’t know why anybody in their right mind would want to live, shop, or work there.
As the saying goes, “It’s a nice place to visit…”

July 11, 2019 2:38 pm

It won’t get more than a degree warmer. Unfortunately, this is really as good as it gets. The only way from here is colder.

Tom Abbott
July 11, 2019 2:39 pm

I was watching Shepard Smith, a Fox News host on tv about an hour ago and he was standing in front of a large weather map pointing out the tropical storm there and he highligted the temperatures of the water in the Gulf of Mexico and said “See, that is caused by climate change, obviously”.

So I guess just like Greta, Shepard can see climate change.

I guess Shepard must be a true believer. Yesterday, someone questioned CAGW and Shepard about had a fit right on the air sputtering and searching for a good retort, which ended up being an appeal to authority. Shepard is going on hearsay, not facts.

Robert of Ottawa
July 11, 2019 2:41 pm

Bring it on in Minnesota North.

Walter Sobchak
July 11, 2019 2:43 pm

I live in Central Ohio. 1000Km south of here is Tallahassee Florida. In honor of that here is Freddie “Boom Boom” Cannon with his 1959 hit: “Tallahasse Lassie”:

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
July 11, 2019 3:20 pm

The one bad thing about having to move to Tallahassee is that we would have to leave behind our beloved Ohio State Buckeyes and become Florida State Seminoles. I think we will stoutly resist that.

icisil
July 11, 2019 2:48 pm

“Most people who move to Florida don’t have any trouble adjusting.”

Ah, because of the blessed A/C, courtesy of … hydrocarbons!

John Boland
Reply to  icisil
July 11, 2019 4:08 pm

So the solution is more hydrocarbons…I can live with that.

icisil
July 11, 2019 2:57 pm

“Florida is the place people retire, because of its gentle warm climate”

Uh no (except in the winter). FL is brutally hot and humid in the summer, unless you live on the coast with daily onshore breezes.

icisil
July 11, 2019 3:04 pm

Has there ever been in the history of the world a branch of science more ridiculed than climate science?

Robert Beckman
Reply to  icisil
July 13, 2019 8:54 am

Plate tectonics, natural selection, bacteria cause ulcers, and relativity off the top of my head.

Rick C PE
July 11, 2019 3:09 pm

Wow, so according to these folks an additional 0.02% CO2 will somehow reduce the difference in day/night length in higher latitudes by 50%. Must somehow be able to reduce the tilt of the earth’s axis. After all, the biggest difference in climate between the north and south is how much the weather changes with the seasons.

John Bell
July 11, 2019 3:17 pm

But of course all the “scientists” making these claims use fossil fuels every day as before, because they are doing the good work of getting the word out to the world of the impending disasters. I love how they always claim that things will get drier, or wetter, but they never know which.

Robber
July 11, 2019 3:44 pm

“the Earth will be 1.5° C warmer by 2100.” Wrong. That’s from estimated 1850 temperatures.
Rewrite as ‘the Earth will be 0.5° C warmer by 2100 compared to 2019.’ Wow, not as scary?

MarkW
July 11, 2019 4:43 pm

Trust me, this time the world’s gonna get warmer.

Sweet Old Bob
July 11, 2019 5:00 pm

More , please ! NOW !!

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